2021 1Q Report/Grades: Quarterback

[EastStreet]

 

Going to take a little different slant with QB.

 

 

• Grade Summary
  • Pure Grad - B
    • Good not great, but good against some very tough teams (7th SoS so far).
  • Grade with context - B+ 
    • Similar OL situation to last year, similar pressure %, but much improved stats all around
    • Lowest INT% in the league and zero turnover worthy passes
    • Much improved ANY/A even with a very low IAY/A (a product of conservative O)
    • Arguably carrying the team, but hasn't resorted to mistake prone hero ball
    • 13th in YPG even with OL woes, new to scheme, lacking chemistry, few deep attempts, and missing TY

 

• The ever important context (looking back to 2017)
  • OL - Wentz had top 5 OLs from 2017-2019 (#1 in 2017).
    • In 2019, they're OL got worse pass blocking but was still good run blocking.
    • In 2020, he had arguably the most injured OL, with a new starting line up each week (similar to what's occurred in Indy this year). Gave up the most sacks in the league, but was still somewhat decent run blocking.
  • Sacks - 2017 1#18 (28), 2018 #17 (31), 2019 #13 (37), 2020 #1 (50), 2021 #11
  • Pressure % (only since 2018) - 2018 23.7%, 2019 23.4%, 2020 29.3%, 2021 28.9%
    • Pressure rate similar to last year's debacle in Philly.
  • WR/TE - in 2020, Wentz had the most decimated pass catching group in the NFL.
    • His leading WR in 2020 wasn't on the 53 to start the year, nor did he even make a squad this year.
    • He's been without TY all season so far in 2021
  • Rushing O - 2017 Philly was #3, 2018 #28, 2019 #11, 2020 #9, 2021 #13 
  • Defense (total yards) - 2017 #4, 2018 #23, 2019 #10, 2020 #19, 2021 #16
  • TLDR -
    • is the great season in 2017 really a shock with Philly having the #1 OL, #3 rushing attack, and #4 Defense?
    • is the bad season in 2020 really a shock with a new OL line up every game, the most sacks allowed in the league, your pass catchers decimated, and a poor defense?
• Wentz stats by year (2021/2020/2019/2018/2017)
  • Completions % - 65.3 / 57.4 / 63.9 / 69.6 / 60.2
    • His current 65.3 is about the same as Rodgers, better than Allen, less than others.
  • TD% - 4.0 / 3.7 / 4.4 / 5.2 / 7.5 
    • Need to caveat this with don't throw a lot in the RZ, and we don't throw deep a lot, period.... So a low TD% is not shocking in Reich's O
  • INT% - 0.6 / 3.4 / 1.2 / 1.7 / 1.6
    • Wentz has the lowest INT% in the league
  • Passer Rating - 99.4 / 72.8 / 93.1 / 102.2 / 101.9
    • not far off his 2017 and 2018 rating
  • PFF Rating - 73.8 / 65.0 / 76.5 / 79.4 / 84.9
    • Improving every week
  • YPG - 264.4 / 218.3 / 252.4 / 279.5 / 253.5
    • Better than 2017, much better than 2020
  • IAY/A (intended air yards per attempt, only since 2018) - 6.5 / 8.8 / 8.0 / 7.7
    • A product of Reich O (dink/dunk, low deep attempts)
  • ANY/A (adj Net Yards per attempt) - 7.11 / 3.98 / 6.26 / 6.89 / 7.43
    • This is a huge improvement, and should only get better, especially given the low IAY/A
  • Random stats
    • Has 191 yards of RPO passing so far this year, compared to 210 for all of last year
    • Has 433 yards of Play Action passing so far this year, compared to 583 for all of last year

[csmopar]

I remain unhappy with the trade. But overall, Wentz so far, has not been the reason this team is 1-4. He’s played well given the circumstances. And honestly, better than I thought he would to date.

 

however, I remain unhappy with the trade. But that’s mainly due to what we gave up. Now, it looks like we could have a top 5 pick that we may be sending to the Eagles. This is unfolding as a worst case nightmare scenario 

[Restinpeacesweetchloe]

5 minutes ago, csmopar said:

I remain unhappy with the trade. But overall, Wentz so far, has not been the reason this team is 1-4. He’s played well given the circumstances. And honestly, better than I thought he would to date.

 

however, I remain unhappy with the trade. But that’s mainly due to what we gave up. Now, it looks like we could have a top 5 pick that we may be sending to the Eagles. This is unfolding as a worst case nightmare scenario 

How did you expect them to find a QB if they weren’t going to give anything up.  There are a couple teams who are actually in this same scenerio as the colts in 22 draft. I can’t remember which teams they are but they could lose their high first round picks. We will still have a high second and should be able to get a good player. I think this team will win enough so it’s not a super high pick.   Ballard is going to have to find a couple good FA next season. He won’t be able yo rely on the draft.

 

Edit one of those teams is Seattle with the adams trade.

[cdgacoltsfan]

18 minutes ago, csmopar said:

I remain unhappy with the trade. But overall, Wentz so far, has not been the reason this team is 1-4. He’s played well given the circumstances. And honestly, better than I thought he would to date.

 

however, I remain unhappy with the trade. But that’s mainly due to what we gave up. Now, it looks like we could have a top 5 pick that we may be sending to the Eagles. This is unfolding as a worst case nightmare scenario 

Lol...we will be nowhere close to a top 5 pick. The season didn't end last week. Carson will be our franchise QB for years to come and we were lucky to get him for a more likely mid 1st round pick and a lower 2nd round pick. 

[csmopar]

16 minutes ago, Wentzszn said:

How did you expect them to find a QB if they weren’t going to give anything up.  There are a couple teams who are actually in this same scenerio as the colts in 22 draft. I can’t remember which teams they are but they could lose their high first round picks. We will still have a high second and should be able to get a good player. I think this team will win enough so it’s not a super high pick.   Ballard is going to have to find a couple good FA next season. He won’t be able yo rely on the draft.

 

Edit one of those teams is Seattle with the adams trade.

Honestly, I don’t know. I’d probably just riden Eason or some other dude to a top 3 pick. Then figured it out from there.

 

Course I also think the reason Rivers retired was he was told that since Wentz was available, we were going after him. 

3 minutes ago, cdgacoltsfan said:

Lol...we will be nowhere close to a top 5 pick. The season didn't end last week. Carson will be our franchise QB for years to come and we were lucky to get him for a more likely mid 1st round pick and a lower 2nd round pick. 

I’m saying IF the current pattern holds, we would have a top 5, minimum top 10 pick. 
 

now if we get on a winning streak, then I may change my mind on that. 

[Restinpeacesweetchloe]

2 minutes ago, csmopar said:

Honestly, I don’t know. I’d probably just riden Eason or some other dude to a top 3 pick. Then figured it out from there.

 

Course I also think the reason Rivers retired was he was told that since Wentz was available, we were going after him. 

I’m saying IF the current pattern holds, we would have a top 5, minimum top 10 pick. 
 

now if we get on a winning streak, then I may change my mind on that. 

Wentz is going to be good. Ballard needs to fix this defense and get him another weapon but it was the right choice. We could of just got another average bridge QB and hoped a QB fell in the draft. If Wentz hadn’t been available fields might be the guy right now.

[holeymoley99]

I was cautiously happy with the trade now that he is playing like he did in his best seasons despite the mess around him Im very happy. We have our QB of the present and future, high drafted QBs are a crap shoot we are seeing it this year with Fields playing awful, Wilson looking lost, Lawrence confidence gone, Lance cant hit the side of a barn...do any turn it around who knows ? The pick likely in the 20 range as we likely make playoffs by winning the South which we are in position to do.

[Restinpeacesweetchloe]

There is something to a bridge QB who is just good enough to keep you out of the running for the top QB. It might of been better just go with a bad QB. With as good as this draft class was in 21 in might of been smarter to just roll with Jacoby one more year. He was already under contract. Could of put us in a nice position to draft a QB this past draft. I don’t know if fans or Ballard and Reich would of been able to stomach that for a year.

[shasta519]

30 minutes ago, holeymoley99 said:

I was cautiously happy with the trade now that he is playing like he did in his best seasons despite the mess around him Im very happy. We have our QB of the present and future, high drafted QBs are a crap shoot we are seeing it this year with Fields playing awful, Wilson looking lost, Lawrence confidence gone, Lance cant hit the side of a barn...do any turn it around who knows ? The pick likely in the 20 range as we likely make playoffs by winning the South which we are in position to do.

They are 5 games into their respective rookie seasons though (in some cases only a couple games in). 

[shasta519]

22 minutes ago, Wentzszn said:

There is something to a bridge QB who is just good enough to keep you out of the running for the top QB. It might of been better just go with a bad QB. With as good as this draft class was in 21 in might of been smarter to just roll with Jacoby one more year. He was already under contract. Could of put us in a nice position to draft a QB this past draft. I don’t know if fans or Ballard and Reich would of been able to stomach that for a year.

 
JB one more year would have been a disaster.

[csmopar]

1 hour ago, Wentzszn said:

Wentz is going to be good. Ballard needs to fix this defense and get him another weapon but it was the right choice. We could of just got another average bridge QB and hoped a QB fell in the draft. If Wentz hadn’t been available fields might be the guy right now.

As of now. But I’m not convinced he can last with the way our OL is playing. Granted, no QB could.

[Restinpeacesweetchloe]

Just now, shasta519 said:

 
JB one more year would have been a disaster.

That would of been the point. Rivers got us in the playoffs and it was fun watching him but it kept our draft pick to low.  The point of having Jacoby start another year would be for it to be a disaster so we get the high pick.

 

Wentz was the right choice since he was available. He is young enough and had experience with this coaching staff so it turned out better then drafting a young QB.

[Restinpeacesweetchloe]

1 minute ago, csmopar said:

As of now. But I’m not convinced he can last with the way our OL is playing. Granted, no QB could.

The oline is getting better every week. He looked very comfortable in that Ravens game. Looked like he was totally in control. We do have to work on scoring more points.  We will hopefully have the entire oline next week in SF. I don’t think people realize how the oline needs chemistry too and with all the missed camp it hurt them. They also had to get used to Wentz playing style being a different. It was easy to pass block for Rivers.

[throwing BBZ]

1 hour ago, csmopar said:

Honestly, I don’t know. I’d probably just riden Eason or some other dude to a top 3 pick. Then figured it out from there.

 

Course I also think the reason Rivers retired was he was told that since Wentz was available, we were going after him. 

I’m saying IF the current pattern holds, we would have a top 5, minimum top 10 pick. 
 

now if we get on a winning streak, then I may change my mind on that. 

 

  Few in the world thought at trade time this was a top ten pick team for 2022.
  What a joke to think a QB taken 10-20 would have been much for 2-3 seasons or more, as all of our young talent has been developed into a contending team. It is a total crapshoot with these college QB's that usually have two seasons or less of starting experience.
 And what Garbage to say that the current pattern doesn't show great promise with a weaker schedule ahead. We were ahead 22-3 on the road.
LMAO that you may have a change of mind. Doyle use you for writing tips?

[throwing BBZ]

9 minutes ago, shasta519 said:

 
JB one more year would have been a disaster.

 

 On my eyes, my heart, my stomach, ears, toes, tv... you name it!!
 The Pain!!!  

[MPStack]

Too many are locked in on losing that first pick. Wentz, has played extremely well and if he stays healthy, the Colts have a young solid QB (28) for the foreseeable future. Having a good QB, should always be at the top of list. So far, so good. 
 

The Colts have most of the non premium positions covered. Ballard needs to start finding healthy and quality players at the premium positions moving forward.

 

 

 

 

[holeymoley99]

24 minutes ago, shasta519 said:

They are 5 games into their respective rookie seasons though (in some cases only a couple games in). 

Exactly my point, its a crap shoot.....very rare a QB comes in and blows the doors off. Colts arent in rebuild mode, they wanted to win right now after going toe to toe with Bills in AFC playoffs last year.

[Nesjan3]

I was quite unhappy with the trade at the time just because I felt like Ballard was bargain bin shopping again when Qb's like Stafford were available. As well much concern about his injury history.

 

I have been pleasantly surprised by his play, probably our best offensive player so far this season. Still a little concerned he wont be able to make it through a 17 game season but if he can I think we have a QB worth a 1st round pick. 

 

Regarding the backup situation, seems to me like Frank doesn't think Eason has what it takes and never has, Ballard may have something to do with him being the backup to start the season. Maybe there is a bit of differing opinions here between HC and GM.

[Restinpeacesweetchloe]

2 minutes ago, MPStack said:

Too many are locked in on losing that first pick. Wentz, has played extremely well and if he stays healthy, the Colts have a young solid QB (28) for the foreseeable future. Having a good QB, should always be at the top of list. So far, so good. 
 

The Colts have most of the non premium positions covered. Ballard needs to start finding healthy and quality players at the premium positions moving forward.

 

 

 

 

This is a good point. The team shouldn’t feel robbed of that first pick as long as Wentz has shown he is going to be the guy for the future. No matter how high the pick is. The only way this situation would be bad is if Wentz played awful and we gave up the high pick. Then the team is stuck. If Wentz was playing awful and the team was losing you can bet they would sit him to keep that pick. But with him playing well giving up the pick was worth it.

[bsteves]

45 minutes ago, Wentzszn said:

There is something to a bridge QB who is just good enough to keep you out of the running for the top QB. It might of been better just go with a bad QB. With as good as this draft class was in 21 in might of been smarter to just roll with Jacoby one more year. He was already under contract. Could of put us in a nice position to draft a QB this past draft. I don’t know if fans or Ballard and Reich would of been able to stomach that for a year.

 

Wait... who was good enough in this past draft that you really think this could have been a good idea? Esp comparing those players to Wentz.

[Solid84]

7 minutes ago, MPStack said:

Too many are locked in on losing that first pick. Wentz, has played extremely well and if he stays healthy, the Colts have a young (28) for the foreseeable future. Having a good QB, should always be at the top of list. So far, so good. 
 

The Colts have most of the non premium positions covered. Ballard needs to start finding healthy and quality players at the premium positions moving forward.

 

 

 

 

I don't mind giving up a 1st round pick for what I think will be a top10 QB for us for quite a few years. I do mind giving up a 1st round pick with the holes we have at important positions and without any cap space to find them in FA.

[csmopar]

23 minutes ago, throwing BBZ said:

 

  Few in the world thought at trade time this was a top ten pick team for 2022.
  What a joke to think a QB taken 10-20 would have been much for 2-3 seasons or more, as all of our young talent has been developed into a contending team. It is a total crapshoot with these college QB's that usually have two seasons or less of starting experience.
 And what Garbage to say that the current pattern doesn't show great promise with a weaker schedule ahead. We were ahead 22-3 on the road.
LMAO that you may have a change of mind. Doyle use you for writing tips?

No. I’ve made it clear I was not a fan of the trade from the second it was rumored. I will never like the trade for what we gave up. Historically, these types of trades rarely work long term and set the team back exponentially. Nor am I saying a rookie QB would be better. It’s a crap shoot either way. My problem is the salary plus what we gave up.
 

that said, I will gladly admit my crow should Wentz continue playing as well as he has.

 

I will also add, that I believe Ballard has made the best of his very few options at this position given the way Luck screwed the team. 

[MPStack]

10 minutes ago, Solid84 said:

I don't mind giving up a 1st round pick for what I think will be a top10 QB for us for quite a few years.

Wentz, has been doing everything that could be asked of him without the supporting cast. He’s playing close to top 10 now. Imagine how well he plays with a solid O-Line, WR and TE.

 

10 minutes ago, Solid84 said:

I do mind giving up a 1st round pick with the holes we have at important positions and without any cap space to find them in FA.

That’s on Ballard to figure out. However, kudos to him for potentially fixing the most important position at QB.
 

 I was originally not happy with this trade, but it’s hard to overlook at the value of having Wentz on the team. Without him, the Colts are 0-5 and searching for a QB in a bad class in 2022. 

 

Hopefully, Ballard is more aggressive in free agency in 2022 without a 1st. I think he will be. 

[Restinpeacesweetchloe]

15 minutes ago, bsteves said:

 

Wait... who was good enough in this past draft that you really think this could have been a good idea? Esp comparing those players to Wentz.

From all accounts they loved Fields. In the end though Wentz was the right choice to trade for. But if he hadn’t been available Fields dropped far enough they could of moved up even at where they were. The 2020 draft they could of tried to live up for Herbert instead of trading for Buckner. We will never know if they tried before trading for Buckner but by all accounts they didn’t.

[coming on strong]

1 hour ago, csmopar said:

Honestly, I don’t know. I’d probably just riden Eason or some other dude to a top 3 pick. Then figured it out from there.

 

Course I also think the reason Rivers retired was he was told that since Wentz was available, we were going after him. 

I’m saying IF the current pattern holds, we would have a top 5, minimum top 10 pick. 
 

now if we get on a winning streak, then I may change my mind on that. 

the problem is this draft class is not very good with QBs  and rivers only beat two playoff teams last year .  the weak schedule made the colts look much better than they are .  rivers went 3-13 with much better weapons than the colts have he would of been exposed this season . the only other option was to draft a QB and the rookies all look average to below average .  it was the best move available unless the colts traded the house for a 34 year old stafford who only does good when he has elite teams .

[Restinpeacesweetchloe]

4 minutes ago, MPStack said:

 

That’s on Ballard to figure out. However, kudos to him for potentially fixing the most important position at QB.
 

 I was originally not happy with this trade, but it’s hard to overlook at the value of having Wentz on the team. Without him, the Colts are 0-5 and searching for a QB in a bad class in 2022. 

 

Hopefully, Ballard is more aggressive in free agency in 2022 without a 1st. I think he will be. 

Now that it seems he fixed the QB issue he really needs to go fix some areas with good FA or even a trade. 

[coming on strong]

i think the colts are better than their record but still have holes .  if paye and dayo turn out to be good we are fine at edge , and only corner and wr can be improved .  

[Restinpeacesweetchloe]

2 minutes ago, coming on strong said:

the problem is this draft class is not very good with QBs  and rivers only beat two playoff teams last year .  the weak schedule made the colts look much better than they are .  rivers went 3-13 with much better weapons than the colts have he would of been exposed this season . the only other option was to draft a QB and the rookies all look average to below average .  it was the best move available unless the colts traded the house for a 34 year old stafford who only does good when he has elite teams .

The good thing about the schedule this year it exposes that we aren’t there yet to compete with the best. So Ballard now can see where all the holes are. I am surprised he hasn’t done his usual sit down yet. Maybe he doesn’t want to do it with the bad start and say anything that could hurt the locker room.

[Restinpeacesweetchloe]

20 minutes ago, Solid84 said:

I don't mind giving up a 1st round pick for what I think will be a top10 QB for us for quite a few years. I do mind giving up a 1st round pick with the holes we have at important positions and without any cap space to find them in FA.

We have almost 70 million in cap space next season. I believe. A lot of players won’t be brought back. We still have Q on his fifth year and could franchise him another year. So that bides us time for the cap to go way up. He can’t be cheap at corner. He needs to go find a young good corner. I am ok looking for another WR in the draft. They seem to be producing right away lately. As long as it isn’t a late round pick. Needs to be a higher pick.

[coming on strong]

5 minutes ago, Wentzszn said:

The good thing about the schedule this year it exposes that we aren’t there yet to compete with the best. So Ballard now can see where all the holes are. I am surprised he hasn’t done his usual sit down yet. Maybe he doesn’t want to do it with the bad start and say anything that could hurt the locker room.

I think even with the bad record the team is still close to competing with good teams .  we were dominating the ravens without the missed kicks we win .  if wentz doesnt get hurt he has 2 minutes and 30 seconds to get in field goal range or a touchdown to win the rams game .     If wentz wasn't playing at 40 percent health against the titans we could of easily won they looked sloppy .    with a full training camp and fully healthy wentz we could be 4-1  .    Even the elite defenses in the nfl are giving up 20 points per game its a new game with the rules change .  we are at 23.5 per game badly injured , when the offense gets fully clicking we will be a different team .  next year is gonna be the fun year the salary cap goes up like 40 million and paye and dayo will start going .

[Restinpeacesweetchloe]

7 minutes ago, coming on strong said:

I think even with the bad record the team is still close to competing with good teams .  we were dominating the ravens without the missed kicks we win .  if wentz doesnt get hurt he has 2 minutes and 30 seconds to get in field goal range or a touchdown to win the rams game .     If wentz wasn't playing at 40 percent health against the titans we could of easily won they looked sloppy .    with a full training camp and fully healthy wentz we could be 4-1  .    Even the elite defenses in the nfl are giving up 20 points per game its a new game with the rules change .  we are at 23.5 per game badly injured , when the offense gets fully clicking we will be a different team .  next year is gonna be the fun year the salary cap goes up like 40 million and paye and dayo will start going .

We are close. We don’t need a overhaul and it makes it much easier to fix when they have the QB. But Ballard does need to go try and find a couple players who are still young but are good. No more bargain shopping for a couple of these spots. 

[csmopar]

36 minutes ago, coming on strong said:

the problem is this draft class is not very good with QBs  and rivers only beat two playoff teams last year .  the weak schedule made the colts look much better than they are .  rivers went 3-13 with much better weapons than the colts have he would of been exposed this season . the only other option was to draft a QB and the rookies all look average to below average .  it was the best move available unless the colts traded the house for a 34 year old stafford who only does good when he has elite teams .

I don’t disagree. It was and still is a bad time to need a QB. Like I said, I get why Ballard did it, I just don’t like the cost. But that stance will likely soften if Wentz ends up being that guy we’ve needed since Luck abandoned us

[csmopar]

32 minutes ago, Wentzszn said:

We have almost 70 million in cap space next season. I believe. A lot of players won’t be brought back. We still have Q on his fifth year and could franchise him another year. So that bides us time for the cap to go way up. He can’t be cheap at corner. He needs to go find a young good corner. I am ok looking for another WR in the draft. They seem to be producing right away lately. As long as it isn’t a late round pick. Needs to be a higher pick.

I also think we will go back to the concept of not spending ALL the cap and rolling it over and over.  Just depends how close Ballard thinks we are.

[Restinpeacesweetchloe]

it was right after game 5 vs Cleveland where Rivers and the offense started to click. I think we are starting to see this with Wentz and this offense at the exact same point in the season.

[Restinpeacesweetchloe]

2 minutes ago, csmopar said:

I also think we will go back to the concept of not spending ALL the cap and rolling it over and over.  Just depends how close Ballard thinks we are.

Well he isn’t going to get any closer by not spending it and relying solely on the draft.

[Fluke_33]

51 minutes ago, MPStack said:

 

That’s on Ballard to figure out. However, kudos to him for potentially fixing the most important position at QB.
 

 I was originally not happy with this trade, but it’s hard to overlook at the value of having Wentz on the team. Without him, the Colts are 0-5 and searching for a QB in a bad class in 2022. 

 

Hopefully, Ballard is more aggressive in free agency in 2022 without a 1st. I think he will be. 

Nailed it

[Fluke_33]

Qbs are so hard to find and he’s impressed me especially given the high ankle sprain.  I’m sold for now and wouldn’t be upset if it was the 12th over all that we traded although I hope we have a better record than that this year 

[Restinpeacesweetchloe]

Ballard had always talked about needing luck to find a QB. He had luck on his side with the Wentz situation in Phili.

[Moosejawcolt]

1 hour ago, csmopar said:

No. I’ve made it clear I was not a fan of the trade from the second it was rumored. I will never like the trade for what we gave up. Historically, these types of trades rarely work long term and set the team back exponentially. Nor am I saying a rookie QB would be better. It’s a crap shoot either way. My problem is the salary plus what we gave up.
 

that said, I will gladly admit my crow should Wentz continue playing as well as he has.

 

I will also add, that I believe Ballard has made the best of his very few options at this position given the way Luck screwed the team. 

How long does Ballard get to ride the Luck train? Is th loss of Luck excuse Ballard for not building a competent defence? When Luck retired, they could have went into the draft and got their future stud. They sold us that Brissett was a starting qb. They then signed Rivers who was maybe a one year replacement. 

[SOMDColtsfan]

Grade Wentz a B. We still wont know what we traded for Wentz til draft day or later to determine if it was a good trade. Wentz has proven to be a warrior. I don't believe the offense has "jelled" yet, and do believe better days are ahead with more continuity. The biggest flaw I see is Wentz has to get rid of the ball and not take a sack on crucial plays. Can almost feel its going to happen every time, more of an O line problem but he's got to do better in those situations.