2021 1Q Report/Grades: Quarterback

[EastStreet]

1 minute ago, Zoltan said:

Autry pff grade 51.3 with 6 solo tackles, 3 sacks

Lewis pff grade 76.2 with 8 solo tackles, 2 sacks

Turay pff grade 55.3 with 2 assist tackles, 2 sacks

Muhammed pff grade 65 with 12 solo tackles, 6 assists, 3 sacks

 

I think we are doing okay without him, not saying that the DL hasn't been disappointing I just think people are remembering Autry with Rose colored glasses.

Sacks isn't the only metric. And I don't think it's rose colored glass either.

 

Total pressures....

Autry 9

Houston 6

AQM 5

Lewis 4

Turay 3

Paye 0

Dayo 0

 

Bonus - Defo has only 8, so Autry has more pressures than any player on our roster. Houston also has more than any of our DEs. And Autry + Houston is 15 vs 12 (AQM/Lewis/Turay/Paye)

 

 

[csmopar]

28 minutes ago, EastStreet said:

 

We're not going to sit Wentz just to sit him regardless of record. Now we might find some convenient minor surgery that he might need as an excuse to close him down for the year lol... but doubt that either.

 

The likeliest situation is that we'll have a mid round pick, not a top 10. We'd have to get in the 10-11 loss space to get a top 10 pick. We have one win, and should have 5 more easily vs HoustonX2, JaxX2, and the Jets. Then you have 3 toss up games with NE, LVR, and TN. We'll be dogs to SF, TB, Bills, and Cards, but wouldn't be surprised if we took one of those. If we win the 5 easy games, and beat TN, we're likely a coinflip at that point for the division. I don't think the AFCS will get a WC this year. 

 

But regardless of what happens, if Wentz continues playing well, a 1st and 3rd was cheap. 

 

All true, but just because it’s an unlikely scenario, doesn’t mean it cannot happen. And so far, the stage is set to go either direction. If we lose tomorrow especially, we’ll be farther down the road to the nightmare (to me) scenario 

[EastStreet]

4 minutes ago, csmopar said:

All true, but just because it’s an unlikely scenario, doesn’t mean it cannot happen. And so far, the stage is set to go either direction. If we lose tomorrow especially, we’ll be farther down the road to the nightmare (to me) scenario 

Point is, you don't make a trade decision on unlikely scenarios. 

The trade looks like a good one.

We're only in the situation right now because the OL has had major injury issues, the pass D has stunk (also impacted by injury), and coaching/play-calling has been mediocre to bad. None of that was expected.

[csmopar]

2 minutes ago, EastStreet said:

Point is, you don't make a trade decision on unlikely scenarios. 

The trade looks like a good one.

We're only in the situation right now because the OL has had major injury issues, the pass D has stunk (also impacted by injury), and coaching/play-calling has been mediocre to bad. None of that was expected.

No, you don’t. However,  I’m saying the judgement of this will ultimately be how the Colts end up at the end of the season. At least in the eyes of the casual viewer. 
 

like I said, I’m slowly warming up to the trade with hindsight as a guidance, but I’m still not sure if I can call it a smart move just yet. I need to see Wentz make it thru the season while playing well before I will honestly feel good about the trade. 

[2006Coltsbestever]

53 minutes ago, 2006Coltsbestever said:

I went B as far as his grade. He has played good for the most part, I went B, because if we had Luck I think we would be 2-3, with Peyton probably 3-2 if not 4-1. Wentz is not why we lost Monday though. 

 

Others:

2.Yes for now, I think he is above average to good

 

3. No, I was against the trade because of his injury history

 

4. I went 6/7

 

5. I went Bad, I almost went Clown show because if Wentz gets injured it is over IMO. I don't want to call Eason a clown because I think he is better than Painter. Painter was a clown show.

I almost went B+ but being 1-4 is why I went B. Luck would've found a way to be 2-3, JMO and then go on a roll afterwords.

[EastStreet]

1 hour ago, csmopar said:

No, you don’t. However,  I’m saying the judgement of this will ultimately be how the Colts end up at the end of the season. At least in the eyes of the casual viewer. 
 

like I said, I’m slowly warming up to the trade with hindsight as a guidance, but I’m still not sure if I can call it a smart move just yet. I need to see Wentz make it thru the season while playing well before I will honestly feel good about the trade. 

 

I agree we need to see more.

But if he continues the level of play and stays healthy, it's a no brainer.

[aReggie7]

8 minutes ago, EastStreet said:

Yup.

Don't get me wrong, I wasn't happy with the trade when it happened. But I warmed up. And a 1st and 3rd is just not that much for a guy if he can be top 10ish. And I've been pretty happy every single game given the context. 

 

And sure, giving up a 1st any year sucks, but overall, I just really doubt we'll be top 10 in the draft order anyway.

 

And we've now traded two 1st round picks. One for Defo and one for Wentz. Love Defo, but his addition really hasn't changed a lot. The whole 3T is the key to our D sounds more like another coach-speak moment added to the long list.  Wentz however has kept us in every game despite a lot of other bad stuff going on.

 

I disagree to some extent on the bolded part.

 

I think there are two questions about the Wentz trade, any trade for that matter, that should be answered separately. 

 

1) Are the Colts happy with trading for Wentz? Ultimately this will be answered in how he plays.

2) What price should the Colts have paid to acquire him? This is about his value and demand for him at the time the trade was made.

 

To put it another way, I might make a purchase and be happy with it but it doesn't mean I didn't overpay for said purchase. Or to put it more in line with football some people are happy the Colts drafted Nelson and Kelly but didn't think it was great value for where they were picked.

 

When you trade for a veteran a big part of the appeal is you know what you are getting. Even if you think there is some upside/untapped potential you usually are not using 1st round picks on veterans unless they are a sure thing. Coming off the season he had in 2020 Wentz was not a sure thing. 

 

I will say the answer to question 1 is more important than question 2 but I still think what they gave up is a bit much for him considering the situation. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[EastStreet]

11 minutes ago, ar7 said:

 

I disagree to some extent on the bolded part.

 

I think there are two questions about the Wentz trade, any trade for that matter, that should be answered separately. 

 

1) Are the Colts happy with trading for Wentz? Ultimately this will be answered in how he plays.

2) What price should the Colts have paid to acquire him? This is about his value and demand for him at the time the trade was made.

 

To put it another way, I might make a purchase and be happy with it but it doesn't mean I didn't overpay for said purchase. Or to put it more in line with football some people are happy the Colts drafted Nelson and Kelly but didn't think it was great value for where they were picked.

 

When you trade for a veteran a big part of the appeal is you know what you are getting. Even if you think there is some upside/untapped potential you usually are not using 1st round picks on veterans unless they are a sure thing. Coming off the season he had in 2020 Wentz was not a sure thing. 

 

I will say the answer to question 1 is more important than question 2 but I still think what they gave up is a bit much for him considering the situation. 

 

You mean an aging vet like Stafford, that took two 1st rounders, plus a 3rd, plus a starting QB?

 

Wentz had one elite year, one above average year, one average year, and one bad year. 

His bad year has an abundance of context around it, which simply can't be ignored.

 

After digging into the context, I warmed up to him, and predicted him having a near top 10 (8-12) type of year before the season started. It really wasn't that hard to project. And he's already close to my prediction even with a horrible OL.

[aReggie7]

1 hour ago, EastStreet said:

 

You mean an aging vet like Stafford, that took two 1st rounders, plus a 3rd, plus a starting QB?

 

Wentz had one elite year, one above average year, one average year, and one bad year. 

His bad year has an abundance of context around it, which simply can't be ignored.

 

After digging into the context, I warmed up to him, and predicted him having a near top 10 (8-12) type of year before the season started. It really wasn't that hard to project. And he's already close to my prediction even with a horrible OL.

 

I'd be much more comfortable giving up a 1st for Stafford absolutely. As far as him "aging" Stafford is 33 years old. QBs are continuing to play well into their late 30s. 33 is not old for a QB and it's not like he is 8-10 years older than Wentz. More importantly he hasn't shown signs of declining. He threw for over 4,000 yards last year. It's reasonable to expect that the Rams are going to get 5-7 years out of him. Plus, i'm pretty sure part of the pick value the Rams gave up was for the Lions to take on Goff and his contract.

 

Everything I have read suggests the Colts were bidding against themselves for Wentz. You say it wasn't hard to project him being near the top 10 like it was a sure thing. If it was a sure thing there would have been interest from other teams in need of a QB. Maybe I missed it but all I saw about other teams and Wentz was potentially the Bears but they never made an offer.

 

And other QBs have dealt with injuries and bad oline play but they don't decline to the point of getting benched. When a team has a sure thing at QB they look to fix the problems around the QB and not trade the QB.

 

We can agree to disagree but I think Wentz was more of a gamble thus why I think the cost to get him was a little higher than it should have been.

 

 

 

[Zoltan]

5 hours ago, EastStreet said:

Sacks isn't the only metric. And I don't think it's rose colored glass either.

 

Total pressures....

Autry 9

Houston 6

AQM 5

Lewis 4

Turay 3

Paye 0

Dayo 0

 

Bonus - Defo has only 8, so Autry has more pressures than any player on our roster. Houston also has more than any of our DEs. And Autry + Houston is 15 vs 12 (AQM/Lewis/Turay/Paye)

 

 

I don't pay for pff membership, so sacks and tackles are the only thing I can see along with grade. But I do believe people remember him with rose colored glasses, as most didn't even want him when we signed him.

[Matabix]

On 10/16/2021 at 11:19 AM, MPStack said:

Too many are locked in on losing that first pick. Wentz, has played extremely well and if he stays healthy, the Colts have a young solid QB (28) for the foreseeable future. Having a good QB, should always be at the top of list. So far, so good. 
 

The Colts have most of the non premium positions covered. Ballard needs to start finding healthy and quality players at the premium positions moving forward.

 

 

 

 

Word for word agree.

Need quality over quantity now.

[csmopar]

17 hours ago, EastStreet said:

 

I agree we need to see more.

But if he continues the level of play and stays healthy, it's a no brainer.

Thought I’d circle back and say I was impressed today with his deep ball accuracy on those catches to Campbell and TY. 

[EastStreet]

12 minutes ago, csmopar said:

Thought I’d circle back and say I was impressed today with his deep ball accuracy on those catches to Campbell and TY. 

What about that sail route to Mo? That was purty. 

 

Houston's a bad team, so not going to over-emphasize today, but it was good, efficient, and productive for Wentz. He also only threw it 20 times, but was very confident in most of his throws. Need to carry that over when we travel out to SF>