Wentz leads all QBs in one metric . . .

[zibby43]

He has only been responsible for 2% of the pressures he has faced this season, which is #1 among all 34 qualifying QBs.

 

Per PFF.

 

He’s not running into pressure, he’s not holding the ball too long, etc.  It’s the protection - or lack thereof.  And I say protection because the OL, TEs, RBs, and coaching staff all have some blame here.  

[Never_Quit]

I was gonna say QB hits.

 

The people blaming Wentz for the wheels falling off this team arent watching the games. Wentz has looked great at times, above average in others, and being completely hobbled in one game. 

 

I also doubt his ability to stay healthy but he is tough as nails and he's done the best with everything he's been given. I cant say that for most other players on this team. 

[zibby43]

10 hours ago, Never_Quit said:

I was gonna say QB hits.

 

The people blaming Wentz for the wheels falling off this team arent watching the games. Wentz has looked great at times, above average in others, and being completely hobbled in one game. 

 

I also doubt his ability to stay healthy but he is tough as nails and he's done the best with everything he's been given. I cant say that for most other players on this team. 

I laughed a bit and cried a bit when I read your guess was QB hits.  Gotta get that fixed.

[2006Coltsbestever]

10 hours ago, Never_Quit said:

I was gonna say QB hits.

 

The people blaming Wentz for the wheels falling off this team arent watching the games. Wentz has looked great at times, above average in others, and being completely hobbled in one game. 

 

I also doubt his ability to stay healthy but he is tough as nails and he's done the best with everything he's been given. I cant say that for most other players on this team. 

What's funny is he probably does lead the league in that category  

[jbaron04]

Glow needs to be benched for reed lol 

[lollygagger8]

I was gonna say sore ankles, so yaaaaaay, this is way better! 

[EastStreet]

34 minutes ago, jbaron04 said:

Glow needs to be benched for reed lol 

 

Not saying he's great, but he's given up only 1 sack in 3 games, and I think it might have been Donald. He's getting paid a whole lot less than guys that are playing worse or the same.

 

Fisher has given up 3 sacks in under 2 full games.

Davenport 2 sacks

Smith 1 sack

Kelly 1 sack

 

Nelson is the only one with a clean sheet.

[DougDew]

Wentz does hold the ball too long.  Why not start by looking at his snap-to-release time?  I doubt that its in the top 10 lowest, but it could be. 

 

Then maybe blame can be identified.  Either oline allowing pressure and forcing him to escape and hold the ball, or receivers not being open when they are supposed to be, or him not seeing the proper read at the proper time,  Or all of them.

[Shive]

45 minutes ago, DougDew said:

Wentz does hold the ball too long.  Why not start by looking at his snap-to-release time?  I doubt that its in the top 10 lowest, but it could be. 

 

Then maybe blame can be identified.  Either oline allowing pressure and forcing him to escape and hold the ball, or receivers not being open when they are supposed to be, or him not seeing the proper read at the proper time,  Or all of them.

The metric mentioned in the OP shows that Wentz' actions aren't causing the pressure he's experiencing. He isn't facing increased pressure because he's just holding onto the ball too long. He may have a bit longer time to throw because he's instantly trying to extend plays, but the protection is failing him on a consistent basis.

[DougDew]

34 minutes ago, Shive said:

The metric mentioned in the OP shows that Wentz' actions aren't causing the pressure he's experiencing. He isn't facing increased pressure because he's just holding onto the ball too long. He may have a bit longer time to throw because he's instantly trying to extend plays, but the protection is failing him on a consistent basis.

I didn't see a metric.  I saw PFF's final conclusion.

 

With all of the amateur statisticians and analytics types in the room, snap-to-release is probably the most important stat there is when judging Qb pressures and sacks.  I'm surprised that stat isn't all over the internet readily available and calculated quickly at the end of each game. 

 

If there are lots of pressure and sacks when the QB generally has a low STR time, its the olines fault for not blocking long enough.  If there are lots of pressures and sacks when the QB generally has a high STR, like Luck used to have, its NOT the oline's fault because its understood that linemen can only hold a block for so long.  It likely is the QBs fault for various reasons or it could be the receivers fault too. 

 

I assume that Wentz's STR is higher than Rivers' was, for example.  But Rivers' was probably extremely low compared to any QB.

[ryta1203]

19 hours ago, Never_Quit said:

I was gonna say QB hits.

 

The people blaming Wentz for the wheels falling off this team arent watching the games. Wentz has looked great at times, above average in others, and being completely hobbled in one game. 

 

I also doubt his ability to stay healthy but he is tough as nails and he's done the best with everything he's been given. I cant say that for most other players on this team. 

 

We're watching the games. He's too busy watching the DL to find an open WR. You might be watching the games but you're not watching Wentz.

[Shive]

48 minutes ago, ryta1203 said:

He's too busy watching the DL to find an open WR.

Kind of hard not to when pass rushers are coming through unblocked immediately after the snap. Wentz isn't completely blameless, but he's in no way our biggest problem.

 

53 minutes ago, DougDew said:

I didn't see a metric.  I saw PFF's final conclusion.

 

With all of the amateur statisticians and analytics types in the room, snap-to-release is probably the most important stat there is when judging Qb pressures and sacks.  I'm surprised that stat isn't all over the internet readily available and calculated quickly at the end of each game. 

 

If there are lots of pressure and sacks when the QB generally has a low STR time, its the olines fault for not blocking long enough.  If there are lots of pressures and sacks when the QB generally has a high STR, like Luck used to have, its NOT the oline's fault because its understood that linemen can only hold a block for so long.  It likely is the QBs fault for various reasons or it could be the receivers fault too. 

 

I assume that Wentz's STR is higher than Rivers' was, for example.  But Rivers' was probably extremely low compared to any QB.

Sorry, PFF's conclusion based off of their metrics/ratings has concluded that Wentz is not at fault for almost all pressure he has faced.

 

Time to throw isn't an end all be all indication of whether or not fault lies with the QB. That's why an entity like PFF that watches every snap is a useful tool to provide context. Wentz is #24 in time to throw, per Next Gen Stats at 2.84 seconds. PFF has looked at the plays where QBs are pressured and made the determination if it was due to the QB or other factors.

 

From your post, you're making the assumption that PFF's detailed analysis is incorrect, because you've extrapolated from a single time to throw metric that the issue is indeed Wentz.

[DougDew]

7 minutes ago, Shive said:

Kind of hard not to when pass rushers are coming through unblocked immediately after the snap. Wentz isn't completely blameless, but he's in no way our biggest problem.

 

Sorry, PFF's conclusion based off of their metrics/ratings has concluded that Wentz is not at fault for almost all pressure he has faced.

 

Time to throw isn't an end all be all indication of whether or not fault lies with the QB. That's why an entity like PFF that watches every snap is a useful tool to provide context. Wentz is #24 in time to throw, per Next Gen Stats at 2.84 seconds. PFF has looked at the plays where QBs are pressured and made the determination if it was due to the QB or other factors.

 

From your post, you're making the assumption that PFF's detailed analysis is incorrect, because you've extrapolated from a single time to throw metric that the issue is indeed Wentz.

I'm not saying that its incorrect.  I'm asking for an objective metric to start with, like the actual time from when he takes the snap to when he releases the ball, under all circumstances.  That's objectively measured time.  Its a place to start.

 

Time-to-throw is more of a judgement call. 

 

PFF strategically makes their process look more analytical than what it is because they consistently convert their arbitrary judgements into numbers with decimals...lol.  

[ryta1203]

7 minutes ago, Shive said:

Kind of hard not to when pass rushers are coming through unblocked immediately after the snap. Wentz isn't completely blameless, but he's in no way our biggest problem.

 

Sorry, PFF's conclusion based off of their metrics/ratings has concluded that Wentz is not at fault for almost all pressure he has faced.

 

Time to throw isn't an end all be all indication of whether or not fault lies with the QB. That's why an entity like PFF that watches every snap is a useful tool to provide context. Wentz is #24 in time to throw, per Next Gen Stats at 2.84 seconds. PFF has looked at the plays where QBs are pressured and made the determination if it was due to the QB or other factors.

 

From your post, you're making the assumption that PFF's detailed analysis is incorrect, because you've extrapolated from a single time to throw metric that the issue is indeed Wentz.

 

STR isn't but PFF's analysis is? Come on now.

[stitches]

20 hours ago, zibby43 said:

He has only been responsible for 2% of the pressures he has faced this season, which is #1 among all 34 qualifying QBs.

 

Per PFF.

 

He’s not running into pressure, he’s not holding the ball too long, etc.  It’s the protection - or lack thereof.  And I say protection because the OL, TEs, RBs, and coaching staff all have some blame here.  

To be fair... he is holding the ball too long. The 2% stat is cases where he was singularly to blame for the pressure. It doesn't mean the rest is on the OL. In huge majority of the cases they both have a piece of the blame. The reality is ... both the pass protection has been bad AND Wentz is holding the ball too long in a lot of cases. It's a double whammy! 

[richard pallo]

11 minutes ago, stitches said:

To be fair... he is holding the ball too long. The 2% stat is cases where he was singularly to blame for the pressure. It doesn't mean the rest is on the OL. In huge majority of the cases they both have a piece of the blame. The reality is ... both the pass protection has been bad AND Wentz is holding the ball too long in a lot of cases. It's a double whammy! 

I'll take 2% any day.  That's a remarkable number.

[Shive]

16 minutes ago, DougDew said:

I'm not saying that its incorrect.  I'm asking for an objective metric to start with, like the actual time from when he takes the snap to when he releases the ball, under all circumstances.  That's objectively measured time.  Its a place to start.

 

Time-to-throw is more of a judgement call. 

 

PFF strategically makes their process look more analytical than what it is because they consistently convert their arbitrary judgements into numbers with decimals...lol.  

 

14 minutes ago, ryta1203 said:

 

STR isn't but PFF's analysis is? Come on now.

A single metric that tells you nothing about what actually happens on a given play, only that it took x.xx seconds for the QB to throw the ball once hiked VS. a comprehensive analysis based on metrics that actually provide context, developed by analysts that watch and grade every single play.

 

If a QB takes the snap, the DE comes unblocked, the QB rolls out of the pocket to avoid getting sacked, then completes the pass. The extended time he took to throw the ball is his fault?

[stitches]

16 minutes ago, richard pallo said:

I'll take 2% any day.  That's a remarkable number.

I don't think people know what those 2% mean. I don't have the premier PFF stats(only the top 5), so I cannot tell you what an average is, but top 5 are under 3.5%. If I had to guess average is around 5%. Meaning... 2% is good, but it doesn't tell us as much as it seems on the surface. VERY FEW pressures are attributed singularly to the QB by this stat and this is across the league, not just with Wentz. The reality is... they usually attribute the pressure to varying degrees to a combination of the QB and the protection. 

[Shive]

This is an interesting article on sort of the same topic (requires PFF subscription for the full article):

https://www.pff.com/news/nfl-time-since-pressure-simpsons-paradox-evasive-quarterbacks-russell-wilson

 

I don't have a subscription, but I'm intrigued to see how Wentz rates in time since pressure (TSP).

[Nickster]

4 hours ago, jbaron04 said:

Glow needs to be benched for reed lol 

Reed was waaaayyyy better than Glowinski has been this season.

[DougDew]

2 hours ago, Shive said:

 

A single metric that tells you nothing about what actually happens on a given play, only that it took x.xx seconds for the QB to throw the ball once hiked VS. a comprehensive analysis based on metrics that actually provide context, developed by analysts that watch and grade every single play.

 

If a QB takes the snap, the DE comes unblocked, the QB rolls out of the pocket to avoid getting sacked, then completes the pass. The extended time he took to throw the ball is his fault?

In PFFs judgment, would Rivers and Lamar Jackson have the same time to throw?  Is it measured when the defender is one-half step away from the QB to where he no longer "has time to throw".  For Jackson, that could be 5 seconds if he started running one second after the snap.  Is it measured at the point the Qb had to be moved off of his spot, even when the QB was long gone from that spot before he would have had to move? 

 

I don't see much actual data here.  What I see is a bunch of judgments reduced to numbers giving the impression its more objective than it is.  That's fine.  I'm not a data junkie.  I just wish that judgment would be explained by text and not numbers.

 

[Shive]

37 minutes ago, DougDew said:

In PFFs judgment, would Rivers and Lamar Jackson have the same time to throw?  Is it measured when the defender is one-half step away from the QB to where he no longer "has time to throw".  For Jackson, that could be 5 seconds if he started running one second after the snap.  Is it measured at the point the Qb had to be moved off of his spot, even when the QB was long gone from that spot before he would have had to move? 

I honestly think STR are time to throw are the same thing, just different terms. Time to throw is the time between the ball being hiked and the QB throwing the ball. Rivers and Jackson's time to throw would be different since Jackson scrambles, but using exactly the same criteria to determine it.

 

PFF's new metric I posted a link about, time since pressure, would be a bit more subjective since it's the time it takes to throw the ball once pressured. Since Rivers didn't scramble, he'd have an extremely low TSP, whereas Jackson or Wilson would have much higher TSP since they scramble to buy more time once pressured. I don't believe TSP would start being measured as soon as a QB moves out of the pocket, only if they did so because of pressure.

 

37 minutes ago, DougDew said:

I don't see much actual data here.  What I see is a bunch of judgments reduced to numbers giving the impression its more objective than it is.  That's fine.  I'm not a data junkie.  I just wish that judgment would be explained by text and not numbers.

In the end, PFF's quantification is subjective, but it's looking at different aspects/positions through the exact same lens. So they have rigorous criteria for what they consider for each metric they put out. I do wish more information was provided to help understand which of their metrics they used to help determine the one we're discussing.

 

PFF does have a page that explains how they grade with links to how they specifically grade certain positions: https://www.pff.com/grades

 

37 minutes ago, DougDew said:

What I would like to look at STR when he doesn't have pressure, and when he does have pressure,  Two buckets.  If its high but never comes down much when under pressure, then we know that he tends to hold the ball even when the defenders are getting close.  Probably on the same level as Luck but much longer than Rivers and PM who would both find ways to dump the ball pretty quickly.

This is from the article I posted above and covers 2012-2020 (it looks tiny, so you'll need to zoom in):

 

You its not exactly what you were wanting to see, but it correlates sacks taken against TSP. Manning seems to get the ball out of his hands the fastest when pressured. Mahomes takes much longer to throw once pressured, but takes way less sacks than anyone else. Luck is listed right in between the two. Rivers is in the circled grouping, which makes sense with everyone he's with. Wentz is just about right in the middle. He tends to hold the ball around what Luck did, but takes more sacks. At least that's what I take out of this.

[jbaron04]

8 hours ago, EastStreet said:

 

Not saying he's great, but he's given up only 1 sack in 3 games, and I think it might have been Donald. He's getting paid a whole lot less than guys that are playing worse or the same.

 

Fisher has given up 3 sacks in under 2 full games.

Davenport 2 sacks

Smith 1 sack

Kelly 1 sack

 

Nelson is the only one with a clean sheet.

Have you watched the games ? You can play 70 snaps dominating 69 of them and give up 1 sack doesn’t mean u had a bad game. The constant pressure and getting pushed back losing a majority of his snap hurt this team more than a sack. But yes Fisher has not played well but we don’t have and option st that spot, we do with glow 

[zibby43]

10 hours ago, stitches said:

To be fair... he is holding the ball too long. The 2% stat is cases where he was singularly to blame for the pressure. It doesn't mean the rest is on the OL. In huge majority of the cases they both have a piece of the blame. The reality is ... both the pass protection has been bad AND Wentz is holding the ball too long in a lot of cases. It's a double whammy! 

He is being pressured on 47.5% of his dropbacks, the most in the league.  That’s simply unacceptable with the money invested in this OL.

 

I actually have no problem with Wentz holding the ball when he’s extending plays and moving out of the pocket.  But that tactic is not what is pumping up the league-leading pressure rate, IMO.

 

The tackles have been dreadful, and so have Kelly/Glowinski at various points.

[EastStreet]

5 hours ago, jbaron04 said:

Have you watched the games ? You can play 70 snaps dominating 69 of them and give up 1 sack doesn’t mean u had a bad game. The constant pressure and getting pushed back losing a majority of his snap hurt this team more than a sack. But yes Fisher has not played well but we don’t have and option st that spot, we do with glow 

I watched the first two more than once (LAR 3 times). TN only once. 

 

His game 1, wasn't horrible (not compared to the others).

His game two was bad, but a lot had to do with Donald and Joseph-Day, who are playing top 2 in pass rush win rate, and run stop win rate (respectively). 

 

And most important, my expectations of him are not near as high for him as others. Guys on either side are making top 5 pay, and playing bad. Well, Smith not even playing now.

[stitches]

3 hours ago, zibby43 said:

He is being pressured on 47.5% of his dropbacks, the most in the league.  That’s simply unacceptable with the money invested in this OL.

 

I actually have no problem with Wentz holding the ball when he’s extending plays and moving out of the pocket.  But that tactic is not what is pumping up the league-leading pressure rate, IMO.

 

The tackles have been dreadful, and so have Kelly/Glowinski at various points.

I like QB's ability to extend plays. The reason for it is - it usually is conducive to explosive plays downfield. The problem right now with Wentz/Colts offense is... he's holding on the ball and extending plays(at least before last game when he couldn't move) but the explosive plays are very few and far between. He's got one of the lowest air yards/attempt, one of the lowest yards to the sticks per attempt, one of the lowest net yards per attempt in the league...In essence we are getting all the drawbacks from holding the ball and extending plays(sacks, pressures) and none of the benefits right now. 

[jbaron04]

14 hours ago, EastStreet said:

I watched the first two more than once (LAR 3 times). TN only once. 

 

His game 1, wasn't horrible (not compared to the others).

His game two was bad, but a lot had to do with Donald and Joseph-Day, who are playing top 2 in pass rush win rate, and run stop win rate (respectively). 

 

And most important, my expectations of him are not near as high for him as others. Guys on either side are making top 5 pay, and playing bad. Well, Smith not even playing now.

And based on what you saw , did u think he played better than reed in his game. Yes I agree we are paying too dollar for the oline Kelly one of the top at his position Braden is the highest last time I checked and fisher is making half the price of a top talent LT, Nelson on his rookie deal and glow is making role player money. 

[jbaron04]

14 hours ago, EastStreet said:

I watched the first two more than once (LAR 3 times). TN only once. 

 

His game 1, wasn't horrible (not compared to the others).

His game two was bad, but a lot had to do with Donald and Joseph-Day, who are playing top 2 in pass rush win rate, and run stop win rate (respectively). 

 

And most important, my expectations of him are not near as high for him as others. Guys on either side are making top 5 pay, and playing bad. Well, Smith not even playing now.

When I watched the LAR game Donald wouldn’t get off on Nelson it was glow side every time and yes it’s A lot to ask a bottom tier guy to deal with the best DT in the game which falls on frank and the coaching staff to scheme it up better 

[EastStreet]

10 minutes ago, jbaron04 said:

And based on what you saw , did u think he played better than reed in his game. Yes I agree we are paying too dollar for the oline Kelly one of the top at his position Braden is the highest last time I checked and fisher is making half the price of a top talent LT, Nelson on his rookie deal and glow is making role player money. 

Reed looked good, but he wasn't going against Donald. I didn't rewatch the TN game (had to stream, and not really wanting to suffer through a stream replay). Nor suffer through the loss again lol

8 minutes ago, jbaron04 said:

When I watched the LAR game Donald wouldn’t get off on Nelson it was glow side every time and yes it’s A lot to ask a bottom tier guy to deal with the best DT in the game which falls on frank and the coaching staff to scheme it up better 

Donald was up against Nelson at times. Knocked him back too, but Nelson didn't give it up. 

Just not going to fault the weak link on our OL for looking bad against the best D player in the league. 

 

[shasta519]

Still have not been able to find an actual PFF tweet for this. Just people referencing PFF. Seems like an incredibly subjective stat too, given the lack of knowledge regarding the pass protections. But then again, that's a downside to PFF in general.

 

I know the OL has been bad, I can see that. But I don't buy this stat that they are basically 98% responsible. And Wentz was definitely responsible for getting pressured on several of those snaps against TEN. Blame it on the ankles, but he double-clutched and held the ball for too long.

[Catloaf]

On 9/28/2021 at 9:01 AM, DougDew said:

Wentz does hold the ball too long.  Why not start by looking at his snap-to-release time?  I doubt that its in the top 10 lowest, but it could be. 

 

Then maybe blame can be identified.  Either oline allowing pressure and forcing him to escape and hold the ball, or receivers not being open when they are supposed to be, or him not seeing the proper read at the proper time,  Or all of them.

We don’t really have any star receivers that can get separated.  Pascal or Pittman probably our best WR and neither are #1’s on just about any team.

[DougDew]

13 hours ago, Catloaf said:

We don’t really have any star receivers that can get separated.  Pascal or Pittman probably our best WR and neither are #1’s on just about any team.

Innovative offensive coaches seem to be the fad thing these days in the NFL. 

 

But you cannot rely upon the HC on the sideline to get receivers open on the field by scheming genius plays every series.  Its still about talent and execution by the players on the field and the Colts have lacked that QB/receiver relationship thingy for several years.

[CoachLite]

Football is played faster than most humans can think. There isn't time to read - think - and react. Football players use a "sight picture", then just read and react. In order to do this well: "You don't practice until you get it right, you practice until you can't get it wrong."

 

There are many problems with the Colts lack of performance. Talent and ability of the players isn't on the list.