Week 5 impressions: Brissett

[Nickster 269]

39 minutes ago, Chloe6124 said:

 

 

 

Please Andy, Please.  We can win the big one man.  Pretty please?  

[Chloe6124 5,816]

10 minutes ago, Nickster said:

 

 

Please Andy, Please.  We can win the big one man.  Pretty please?  

Although I would love to have him back I am not sure I could trust him. What if he got injured again. I wonder how the players would feel. Although they haven’t publicly said it they have to feel a little bit like he quit on them. It would be crazy though if Jacoby takes the team to the playoffs and they could get a good draft pick for him and luck comes back.  Luck dies live right by the colts complex.

[SouthernIndianaNDFan 660]

3 minutes ago, Chloe6124 said:

Although I would love to have him back I am not sure I could trust him. What if he got injured again. I wonder how the players would feel. Although they haven’t publicly said it they have to feel a little bit like he quit on them. It would be crazy though if Jacoby takes the team to the playoffs and they could get a good draft pick for him and luck comes back.  Luck dies live right by the colts complex.

 

Is it just me or does Luck look like he's been hitting the weights? I know he's a big dude, but he looks borderline jacked there. 

 

**sorry just realized I quoted the wrong message, meant to quote the one with the pic of Luck etc.**

[Chloe6124 5,816]

2 minutes ago, SouthernIndianaNDFan said:

 

Is it just me or does Luck look like he's been hitting the weights? I know he's a big dude, but he looks borderline jacked there. 

 

**sorry just realized I quoted the wrong message, meant to quote the one with the pic of Luck etc.**

He has always been ripped.  But he looks like a linebacker. 

[shastamasta 2,089]

4 minutes ago, SouthernIndianaNDFan said:

 

Is it just me or does Luck look like he's been hitting the weights? I know he's a big dude, but he looks borderline jacked there. 

 

**sorry just realized I quoted the wrong message, meant to quote the one with the pic of Luck etc.**

 

Yep...he looks big again. Probably went back to Europe again.

[Chloe6124 5,816]

I wish someone would get a interview with Luck. That would be very interesting. 

[Nickster 269]

9 minutes ago, Chloe6124 said:

Although I would love to have him back I am not sure I could trust him. What if he got injured again. I wonder how the players would feel. Although they haven’t publicly said it they have to feel a little bit like he quit on them. It would be crazy though if Jacoby takes the team to the playoffs and they could get a good draft pick for him and luck comes back.  Luck dies live right by the colts complex.

 

The players would be elated.  All of the offensive guys would be setting themselves up for bigger paydays.  If he got hurt, you just put the below average QB back in  or try Hoyer.  Nothing lost.

[Nickster 269]

8 minutes ago, SouthernIndianaNDFan said:

 

Is it just me or does Luck look like he's been hitting the weights? I know he's a big dude, but he looks borderline jacked there. 

 

**sorry just realized I quoted the wrong message, meant to quote the one with the pic of Luck etc.**

 

Man when I went to camp the day after he sat for the first time and he was walking around, he looked like a giant, ripped freaking beast.

[shastamasta 2,089]

 

1 hour ago, SteelCityColt said:

 

It's a boom industry, but a lot of things are hidden behind a paywall sadly. 

 

I repeat though, nothing beats film study. People think PFF is rubbish, but it has a more robust methodology the a lot of things held up as gospel.

 

People think PFF is rubbish when it doesn't fit their narrative or it's a player they like being graded low. The Colts subreddit is a perfect example of this.

[Colts_Fan12 5,393]

4 hours ago, SteelCityColt said:

 

Do you actually understand what that stat measures? Because your answer suggests not. I’m guessing you never looked at the stats table, would have given you an idea of what yardstick Y/A looks like for “good” QBs.

 

Just 2 yards would suggest a RB with 3 yards per carry was as good as one with 5 yards per carry for instance. Do you believe that to be true?

you know damn well she has no clue what you are talking about all she really understands is "JB good everyone else bad"

[Chloe6124 5,816]

If luck thought there was any chance he would want to come back I wish he would of just said I am taking the year off to get my mind and body right instead of retiring. It does look like he is happy not playing. His baby is due in NOV. It makes you wonder if he would want to come back so his kid would have a chance to watch him play. 

[Nickster 269]

1 minute ago, Chloe6124 said:

If luck thought there was any chance he would want to come back I wish he would of just said I am taking the year off to get my mind and body right instead of retiring. It does look like he is happy not playing. His baby is due in NOV. It makes you wonder if he would want to come back so his kid would have a chance to watch him play. 

 

He ain't coming back.

 

Internal monologue "Please be wrong, please be wrong, please be wrong. . . "

 

No way he ain't coming back.

 

Internal monologue "Please be wrong, please be wrong, please be wrong. . . "

 

ad infinitum

[Chloe6124 5,816]

6 minutes ago, Colts_Fan12 said:

you know damn well she has no clue what you are talking about all she really understands is "JB good everyone else bad"

There is no reason to personally attack me. 

 

For what it’s worth JB is second in the league at losing YPA from dropped passes. Wentz is first.  There is no way you can say there is not a pass catcher issue.

[SteelCityColt 8,214]

2 minutes ago, Chloe6124 said:

There is no reason to personally attack me. 

 

For what it’s worth JB is second in the league at losing YPA from dropped passes. Wentz is first.  There is no way you can say there is not a pass catcher issue.

 

Source? I’d be interested to see the quantification of actual yards from drops.

[Chloe6124 5,816]

 

[SteelCityColt 8,214]

2 minutes ago, Chloe6124 said:

 

 

Is that your source because not everyone can hear audio.

[Chloe6124 5,816]

I am looking to see if I can find a actually source. He talks about it in the video. I think the eye test certainly leans that it is correct. Especially after that Oakland game. 

[Colts_Fan12 5,393]

11 minutes ago, Chloe6124 said:

There is no reason to personally attack me. 

 

For what it’s worth JB is second in the league at losing YPA from dropped passes. Wentz is first.  There is no way you can say there is not a pass catcher issue.

you set yourself up for the things you get you argue with some of the smartest damn people on the forum and then cant or wont back up a single thing you claim as others have said you just ignore the posts 

[SteelCityColt 8,214]

28 minutes ago, Chloe6124 said:

I am looking to see if I can find a actually source. He talks about it in the video. I think the eye test certainly leans that it is correct. Especially after that Oakland game. 

 

So your source is a guy on a podcast, not a recognised source. 

 

Okay let's play devil's advocate and say it's true, how have we reached this data? I ask because think of what you'd have to do:

 

A) Go through each incompletion

B) Is it a drop or not (interpretation) 

C) Decide how many yards it was worth (if the receiver is wide open do you add YAC)

 

This is why you only tend to see drop % and why it varies depending on source as it's down to how it has been assessed as a drop or not. It's not a measurable metric. Why it's funny people will poo poo PFF but accept drop % as gospel. 

 

If you use one source however, at least (you'd hope), the interpretation is consistent. Let's do that then.. 

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2019/passing_advanced.htm#advanced_passing::18

 

We can see JB is 11th in dropped passes against him so far, and given his ADOT is lower compared to Prescott, Wentz, Goff and Mariota (similar number attempts/drop %) I'd argue that they are far more likely to have "lost" more yards to drops. But it's not an easily quantifiable thing. 

 

So your statement "For what it’s worth JB is second in the league at losing YPA from dropped passes."  is unlikely to be true, and hard to prove unless the guy has watched every incompletion in the NFL and has a methodology for determining yards lost. 

 

Now he could be getting it from say a PFF, but even then it's still interpretational, else we'd say PFF grades are irrefutable.  

 

You're more correct in saying yes, eye test says we dropped a lot of balls against the Raiders. But that's one game, on one viewing live (unless you've watched back games?) and you'd have to watch all other NFL games to the same depth to get an idea if we're an outlier or not. 

[throwing BBZ 2,417]

16 minutes ago, Chloe6124 said:

Something important that article points out is Cain played preseason games with walker or Kelly at QB. He got no live action with JB. He also didn’t get many in TC with JB.

 

 The simple route Cain ran to draw those two huge penalties is just the same as what T Y uses. And they each were instrumental in two victories.
  More More More 

[Imgrandojji 981]

2 hours ago, Nickster said:

 

The players would be elated.  All of the offensive guys would be setting themselves up for bigger paydays.  If he got hurt, you just put the below average QB back in  or try Hoyer.  Nothing lost.

If we got Luck  back, I'd be looking for a trade to set Brissett up on another team.  Hoyer is probably good enough to cover in case of emergency, and Brissett is just too good to waste his career on the bench.

 

Back in 2011 after Brady's injury took him out for the year the Patriots traded away his replacement. Matt Cassel, who had put up a serviceable year for the team, to the Chiefs for 2 second rounders.  That's about the price I'd expect for Brissett, and I could easily see a team living in denial like the Steelers or Bears coughing it up.

 

Now mind you, that's IF Luck seems to be healthy and "back" emotionally speaking.  But if that was to happen Brissett would instantly have more value to at least half a dozen other teams than he would to us.  He's shown he can be at least an adequate starter and some GM with his job on the line, or an owner for whom adequacy would represent a massive upgrade, is going to take the bait.

[Myles 2,649]

2 hours ago, SteelCityColt said:

 

 

 

So your statement "For what it’s worth JB is second in the league at losing YPA from dropped passes."  is unlikely to be true

 

It might be in some way.   If the ratio was used.   Since JB doesn't go deep often, 3 drops of 15 deep passes may be the second highest ratio in the league.   

 

 

[SteelCityColt 8,214]

29 minutes ago, Myles said:

It might be in some way.   If the ratio was used.   Since JB doesn't go deep often, 3 drops of 15 deep passes may be the second highest ratio in the league.   

 

 

 

Why I was interested to see if it had been quantified in some way. 

 

Question, if Cain hadn’t drawn laundry on his two deep plays, do they go down as drops? 

[Chloe6124 5,816]

This might be a silly question but I am really curious to know. Are some of you guys enjoying watching this team? Are you having fun watching football. Or are so many just stuck on what could of been that it’s hard to enjoy watching them.

[stitches 6,184]

3 hours ago, SteelCityColt said:

 

So your source is a guy on a podcast, not a recognised source. 

 

Okay let's play devil's advocate and say it's true, how have we reached this data? I ask because think of what you'd have to do:

 

A) Go through each incompletion

B) Is it a drop or not (interpretation) 

C) Decide how many yards it was worth (if the receiver is wide open do you add YAC)

 

This is why you only tend to see drop % and why it varies depending on source as it's down to how it has been assessed as a drop or not. It's not a measurable metric. Why it's funny people will poo poo PFF but accept drop % as gospel. 

 

If you use one source however, at least (you'd hope), the interpretation is consistent. Let's do that then.. 

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2019/passing_advanced.htm#advanced_passing::18

 

We can see JB is 11th in dropped passes against him so far, and given his ADOT is lower compared to Prescott, Wentz, Goff and Mariota (similar number attempts/drop %) I'd argue that they are far more likely to have "lost" more yards to drops. But it's not an easily quantifiable thing. 

 

So your statement "For what it’s worth JB is second in the league at losing YPA from dropped passes."  is unlikely to be true, and hard to prove unless the guy has watched every incompletion in the NFL and has a methodology for determining yards lost. 

 

Now he could be getting it from say a PFF, but even then it's still interpretational, else we'd say PFF grades are irrefutable.  

 

You're more correct in saying yes, eye test says we dropped a lot of balls against the Raiders. But that's one game, on one viewing live (unless you've watched back games?) and you'd have to watch all other NFL games to the same depth to get an idea if we're an outlier or not. 

Even if you grant that "For what it’s worth JB is second in the league at losing YPA from dropped passes." ... we still don't know what exactly it means. I don't know what the drop rate is right now. Drop rates in the 6-7% range are pretty high, but the difference between the highest and the lowest is usually about 3-4% and the difference between the highest and the average is about 2%. Brissett is at 6.4 yards per attempt right now. Give him the full 7%... this would bring him up to ~6.85 YPA from 29th in the league to 27th. 

 

edit: I just noticed that you found the exact number for Brissett which is 5.4%, So yeah... even less of an effect on his YPA

[Myles 2,649]

12 minutes ago, Chloe6124 said:

This might be a silly question but I am really curious to know. Are some of you guys enjoying watching this team? Are you having fun watching football. Or are so many just stuck on what could of been that it’s hard to enjoy watching them.

I'm enjoying watching how the team progresses.   It's been a long time since we got to see a team build through the trenches.   

However, I still stay grounded.   I don't feel that Brissett is likely to lead the team to the promised land.   I think it could happen though.  

 

I am still bummed out by Lucks choice.  This team when from Super Bowl contender to playoff contender.   

 

I still sit down in front of the TV and watch every Colts game.  

[Nickster 269]

1 minute ago, Myles said:

I'm enjoying watching how the team progresses.   It's been a long time since we got to see a team build through the trenches.   

However, I still stay grounded.   I don't feel that Brissett is likely to lead the team to the promised land.   I think it could happen though.  

 

I am still bummed out by Lucks choice.  This team when from Super Bowl contender to playoff contender.   

 

I still sit down in front of the TV and watch every Colts game.  

 

Same here.  I will also text my brother like a hundred times during each game with syntax and context only we two could understand.

[stitches 6,184]

PFF released a article on the Colts offense as we transition to Brissett, but I don't have access beyond their paywall. If someone has access, can you summarize what they say and if there are interesting numbers they present. The article is here:

 

 

https://www.pff.com/news/nfl-pff-data-study-the-new-look-old-school-colts-offense

[Chloe6124 5,816]

23 minutes ago, Myles said:

I'm enjoying watching how the team progresses.   It's been a long time since we got to see a team build through the trenches.   

However, I still stay grounded.   I don't feel that Brissett is likely to lead the team to the promised land.   I think it could happen though.  

 

I am still bummed out by Lucks choice.  This team when from Super Bowl contender to playoff contender.   

 

I still sit down in front of the TV and watch every Colts game.  

Yeah I get that. Imagine though how disappointed it would of been to get knocked out of the first round of the playoffs with Luck. So many expectations. There really is no expectations now and it’s just fun sitting back and watching this team grow and win as a complete team.

[aaron11 2,357]

29 minutes ago, Chloe6124 said:

This might be a silly question but I am really curious to know. Are some of you guys enjoying watching this team? Are you having fun watching football. Or are so many just stuck on what could of been that it’s hard to enjoy watching them.

I really enjoyed the Chiefs game, and did not like the Raiders game.  The others this year were not bad, win some lose some.  

 

Loved it when Justin Houston got that tackle late in the game,  probably have not been that excited for a play since Hookers interception last year.  Houston had some funny comments too, good times 

[Chloe6124 5,816]

The colts took a team picture last week. Campbell was not in it with having his surgery. What’s cool though is Devin funchess is in it and looks great in his uniform. Not saying you can tell anything from a picture but it gets me excited he might be able to return for the jags game. Should of been easy for him to stay in shape since it was the shoulder. 

[SouthernIndianaNDFan 660]

2 hours ago, Chloe6124 said:

This might be a silly question but I am really curious to know. Are some of you guys enjoying watching this team? Are you having fun watching football. Or are so many just stuck on what could of been that it’s hard to enjoy watching them.

 

Personally, it's both. It's something that goes thru my mind every so often: How good would this Colts team have been with Andrew Luck at the helm? I don't wanna get into too many hypotheticals, but I'd have to believe they'd be bare minimum SB contenders, if not one of the favorites. I'll always enjoy watching Colts football regardless of the overall state of the franchise, obviously to varying degrees within a small variant field of unyielding Colts-ism...meaning it will obviously be better times when we're 16-0 SB champions then if we're 0-16 laughing stocks. 

 

What I want is for the team to be running on all cylinders. Ballard has continued to say that if he thinks he can improve the team then he's gonna make that move. I feel like drafting a quarterback in a really solid class in 2020 is the prudent thing to do. We'll see how it plays out, I mean if Jacoby continues to progress then yeah keep him as the guy going forward, I just don't know if that's where Ballard/Reich head is at. They're sending scouts to see Burrow, Love, etc. I think they have every intention on taking their future QB in the 2020 draft, if Brissett continues his current trajectory. (I hate to have to put this disclaimer on every post, but unfortunately it's necessary: These are just my opinions, please don't crucify me for having a different mindset than you...we're all Colts fans. We essentially want the same end result.)

[Chloe6124 5,816]

I was past all the luck what if’s about a week after he retired. I have a lot of medical issues so I don’t like to dwell on things I can’t control. I am just living in the moment and enjoying what is today with this football team. JB will either be the long term answer or he won’t. There isn’t anything I can do to change that.  This is what we have now and to be 3-2 after losing a top five QB is pretty incredible to me. Not many teams could of been so lucky. 

[Nickster 269]

10 hours ago, Chloe6124 said:

I was past all the luck what if’s about a week after he retired. I have a lot of medical issues so I don’t like to dwell on things I can’t control. I am just living in the moment and enjoying what is today with this football team. JB will either be the long term answer or hee won’t. There isn’t anything I can do to change that.  This is what we have now and to be 3-2 after losing a top five QB is pretty incredible to me. Not many teams could of been so lucky. 

 

One might get the impression that you undervalue and don’t “enjoy” some of the other players on the team besides Jacoby Brissett enough, Chloe.  

 

Sorry to to hear about your health issues.  That sucks.

 

Cant help it.  Not past Luck.  Took me years to get over my Hs girlfriend though.  Maybe there’s a trend.

 

The razor's edge success makes it worse for me, especially in light of the rest of the league.  THere are no great teams right now IMO.  This could have been a special year and I feel there's no real chance for us to improve upon last year's results.  That is the max end IMO.

 

So yeah, I enjoy watching the Colts play ball.

 

[Chloe6124 5,816]

2 hours ago, Nickster said:

 

One might get the impression that you undervalue and don’t “enjoy” some of the other players on the team besides Jacoby Brissett enough, Chloe.  

 

Sorry to to hear about your health issues.  That sucks.

 

Cant help it.  Not past Luck.  Took me years to get over my Hs girlfriend though.  Maybe there’s a trend.

 

The razor's edge success makes it worse for me, especially in light of the rest of the league.  THere are no great teams right now IMO.  This could have been a special year and I feel there's no real chance for us to improve upon last year's results.  That is the max end IMO.

 

So yeah, I enjoy watching the Colts play ball.

 

I love watching Nelson. Kenny Moore is one of my favorite players. I was debating on getting a Moore or Nelson sweatshirt. Ended up getting Nelson. 

 

I will just say this what if luck hadn’t retired and we missed the playoffs or for beat in the first rd. Imagine how disappointing that would of been. Just enjoy that we are winning. It could of been a lot worse. We could be 0-5 or even 1-5 like last year with Luck.

[Nickster 269]

11 minutes ago, Chloe6124 said:

I love watching Nelson. Kenny Moore is one of my favorite players. I was debating on getting a Moore or Nelson sweatshirt. Ended up getting Nelson. 

 

I will just say this what if luck hadn’t retired and we missed the playoffs or for beat in the first rd. Imagine how disappointing that would of been. Just enjoy that we are winning. It could of been a lot worse. We could be 0-5 or even 1-5 like last year with Luck.

Sure as easy as it is to think 5-0 it could be 0-5.  It’s been that close.  Had some good fortune in wins and bad fortune in losses.

 

I really think though we have a QB issue.

 

luck didn’t have this oline starting last season.  BiG Q wasn’t great to start with either.

[Chloe6124 5,816]

9 minutes ago, Nickster said:

Sure as easy as it is to think 5-0 it could be 0-5.  It’s been that close.  Had some good fortune in wins and bad fortune in losses.

 

I really think though we have a QB issue.

 

luck didn’t have this oline starting last season.  BiG Q wasn’t great to start with either.

I want to see what happens when DF gets back and see where we are at the end of the season before I think we have a QB issue. I am encouraged by the IndyStar article about JB and Cain and how they are working on their chemistry.  Every dang year we end up with WR issues. Ballard and Reich said it would take Cain half the year. Then add losing DF and having to play more instead of working him back in slow. Cain and JB didn’t even have many snaps in training camp. None in preseason. Waiting to watch it play out before making any conclusions.

[Imgrandojji 981]

You make your own luck in this game.  Brissett so far has executed very well in the 4th quarter to either snatch the lead or make the lead stand up.  2 of our 3 wins came down to execution in critical 4th quarter drives.  While you have to give a large share of the credit to the RB corps in each of those wins, Brissett was also a significant factor in making sure the margin of victory stayed in our favor.

 

Again, while we hope his passing game improves over time, his primary attribute is as a field general or game manager, and as game managers go, Brissett has done an excellent job.

[Chloe6124 5,816]

I would like to see more three WR sets. But we don’t really have a third guy with speed. Maybe putting Hines out wide with Cain and TY. I don’t know.  It looks like Campbell’s injury might be a sports hernia. That means he might not be back for like 6 weeks which takes to about week 12.  Maybe we will see TY go off against the Texans like he usually does. Jacoby had some pretty deep balls in 2017 so hopefully that gets going. You can tell by his two deep balls to Cain that drew PI they are trying.

[krunk 12,044]

I'm fine with JB as long as he can give me what I'm looking for consistently at some point this year.  And I stress consistently.  For all of the stats the main stat I really care about is if he can increase the amount of points we are getting on the board.  I want to see him consistently put up 14-21 points or so on drives he orchestrated.  I don't really care if that happens on deep passes or a bunch of short passes to be honest.  Also want to see him continue to improve at navigating the pocket and going through his reads to find the completion. Sometimes he doesn't see things all that well in my opinion.  If the points increase that tells me he's doing some things right in terms of how he's seeing the game.  

 

I thought his feet were too happy in the Chiefs game. I don't think he's all that good when the defense gets him running sideways unless it's designed that way off a boot leg or some type of play action.   I want to see continued improvements in those two areas.  The rest of the stuff that the other posters are bringing up I really don't care too much about to be honest.  I think he can give me what I'm looking for at some point this year.  As he gets more in sync with Campbell and Cain as well as when Funchess returns I think he'll give me what I'm looking for here.   I still think he's not totally in sync with all his guys outside of TY and the Tight Ends.  If I see things getting worse then I will probably be more in the camp of those who feel we need to draft somebody.  Or maybe see where Chad Kelly is at next year.