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Week 5 impressions: Brissett

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6 hours ago, Chloe6124 said:

For all the complaining about JB has anyone looked at Jimmy G stats in San Fran. I don’t think their fans are worried with a undefeated record. JB has about 100 more yards and 3 more TD. Jimmy G yards per attempt has been under 7 in two games one at around 8 and one at around w12.

 

That’s.. that’s not how that works. You’re making out it’s an average of averages. 

 

Jimmy G’s Y/A is still 8.1 for the season so far, Brisset’s 6.4. If you were going to try and mangle stats to fit your narrative,  you could have in isolation looked at average depth of target (ADOT). After all "our" knock on JB is not throwing deep, and oddly both are very similar at 6.9 and 7.0 yards. 

 

But then, how can Jimmy G have a better Y/A? Because he's hitting his deep throws when he does make them. His average air yards per completion is 6.0  yards compared to JB's 4.0. 

 

Before you cry foul and look at the WRs, what WRs does SF really have? They also both have a similar drop rate. 

 

So aside from the winning, Jimmy G has shown he can do it when needed, even in an O not predicated on deep throws. That's possibly why they paid a 2nd round for him and we paid one Phillip Dorsett for JB. 

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9 hours ago, Imgrandojji said:

I kinda feel like that's only going to come with any young QB as he gains experience.  You're talking about veteran QB skills.  The good news is that JB has a decent chance to develop those skills as he gains experience, at least to the point that he'll become better at them than he is right now.

 

Remember, Brissett may have 4 years service time but he's halfway through his second season as an NFL starter.  These things take time.  Personally I'm very pleased with what he's accomplished so far. 

 

To be able to play relatively mistake free and be able to do enough to keep the team in the game more often than not isn't bad for a nonelite QB in his second year as a starter.  Hopefully he develops more savvy and flair as he settles into the job.  Either way, as long as we're either winning or putting up a good fight when we lose I'm OK to let the experiment continue

4 years experience is 4 years experience. Other players, including QBs, dont get to hide behind the excuse they didnt see real game experience. 4 years in the NFL is 4 years in the NFL, no matter what we fans think. So you can make that excuse for JB, but he wouldn't get that luxury in real world expectations. So I'm not going to give it any weight whatsoever.

 

Luckily for him, He's the best QB on the roster so he'll get the playing time to overcome it. And he's overcome some of it. He's learning to checkdown quicker when the primary receiver isn't open,  he's a little better at throwing receivers open, from what I can tell, and he's doing a better job at keeping his eyes downfield when the play breaks down.

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9 hours ago, Chloe6124 said:

For all the complaining about JB has anyone looked at Jimmy G stats in San Fran. I don’t think their fans are worried with a undefeated record. JB has about 100 more yards and 3 more TD. Jimmy G yards per attempt has been under 7 in two games one at around 8 and one at around w12.

JB has also played 1 more game, so the 100 more yards is actually a negative stat to use in this instance.  

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10 hours ago, Chloe6124 said:

This next five games is going to tell a lot about this team. The Texan game will be hard but there is no excuse to lose any of the next four.

I agree except that I would add that there is no excuse for losing to the Texans at home after the bye week.   

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7 hours ago, SteelCityColt said:

 

That’s.. that’s not how that works. You’re making out it’s an average of averages. 

 

Jimmy G’s Y/A is still 8.1 for the season so far, Brisset’s 6.4. If you were going to try and mangle stats to fit your narrative,  you could have in isolation looked at average depth of target (ADOT). After all "our" knock on JB is not throwing deep, and oddly both are very similar at 6.9 and 7.0 yards. 

 

But then, how can Jimmy G have a better Y/A? Because he's hitting his deep throws when he does make them. His average air yards per completion is 6.0  yards compared to JB's 4.0. 

 

Before you cry foul and look at the WRs, what WRs does SF really have? They also both have a similar drop rate. 

 

So aside from the winning, Jimmy G has shown he can do it when needed, even in an O not predicated on deep throws. That's possibly why they paid a 2nd round for him and we paid one Phillip Dorsett for JB. 

Lol that’s two frickin yards.

36 minutes ago, Myles said:

JB has also played 1 more game, so the 100 more yards is actually a negative stat to use in this instance.  

They would still be close. 

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9 minutes ago, Chloe6124 said:

Lol that’s two frickin yards.

They would still be close. 

 

Do you actually understand what that stat measures? Because your answer suggests not. I’m guessing you never looked at the stats table, would have given you an idea of what yardstick Y/A looks like for “good” QBs.

 

Just 2 yards would suggest a RB with 3 yards per carry was as good as one with 5 yards per carry for instance. Do you believe that to be true?

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11 minutes ago, SteelCityColt said:

 

Do you actually understand what that stat measures? Because your answer suggests not. I’m guessing you never looked at the stats table, would have given you an idea of what yardstick Y/A looks like for “good” QBs.

 

Just 2 yards would suggest a RB with 3 yards per carry was as good as one with 5 yards per carry for instance. Do you believe that to be true?

Can you tell me where you find this information?  I found it before and can't seem to find it now.

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Just now, SteelCityColt said:

 

Pro Football Reference is pretty much my go to. 

 

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/

 

Next Gen stats on the NFL site is also pretty good.

Next Gen stats.  That was the one!  I go to PFR all the time, but I guess I forgot they had that since I mostly use that for snap counts.  Thanks!

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48 minutes ago, SteelCityColt said:

 

Pro Football Reference is pretty much my go to. 

 

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/

 

Next Gen stats on the NFL site is also pretty good.

Overall, to me, the stats simply show in table form what we already know by the eye test.  JB tends to throw shorter passes than other QBs with good stats, and is in the high range of completion percentage....which is an obvious correlation.

 

I don't know if that means it leads to not playing winning football, but it probably helps with a team trying to build ans maintain a roster and not having to pay the QB $125 mil.

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I am going to assume that YPA doesn’t include YAC. For instance when a 4 yard dump off to Hines gets 12 yards.

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Just now, Chloe6124 said:

I am going to assume that YPA doesn’t include YAC. For instance when a 4 yard dump off to Hines gets 12 yards.

 Yds/A is just that.  Yds per attempt and includes everything.  It

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All I know is the colts are like fifth in yards per drive. That tells me they are playing playoff football.

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1 minute ago, DougDew said:

Overall, to me, the stats simply show in table form what we already know by the eye test.  JB tends to throw shorter passes than other QBs with good stats, and is in the high range of completion percentage....which is an obvious correlation.

 

I don't know if that means it leads to not playing winning football, but it probably helps with a team trying to build ans maintain a roster and not having to pay the QB $125 mil.

 

Yeah that's the question.  What level of wining football are we contemplating?  


See to me JB is very, very replaceable right now.  I am not sure Hoyer isn't a better option.  

 

The QB is asked to do very little right now so far this year.  He is in a really nice situation.  People can gripe about the WR, but I think most NFL QBs envy the situation JB is in this year with scheme, coaching, skilled talent, and line talent.  

 

Again, for me it's the stare down and the fact that most plays JB makes are pretty easy to make and 1st read type of plays.

 

He's made a few plays on the other hand.  

 

I think of him in terms of like baseball WAR.  I think he is replaceable, and I think we are looking at him near his ceiling just because of the way he appears to see the game.  

 

Now if he had say, Antonio Brown, Sproles, Julio Jones, and Rob Gronkowski would he appear better?  Well of course.  But I am not sure he would be any better.

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4 minutes ago, DougDew said:

Overall, to me, the stats simply show in table form what we already know by the eye test.  JB tends to throw shorter passes than other QBs with good stats, and is in the high range of completion percentage....which is an obvious correlation.

 

I don't know if that means it leads to not playing winning football, but it probably helps with a team trying to build ans maintain a roster and not having to pay the QB $125 mil.

 

I don't think it's as much of an issue under the current cap to have both a franchise QB and a decent roster.

 

All along I've said, it's not saying JB can't be a franchise QB, but there are things that still need to be seen. 

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6 minutes ago, Chloe6124 said:

I am going to assume that YPA doesn’t include YAC. For instance when a 4 yard dump off to Hines gets 12 yards.

 

So you don't understand the metric, yet felt like you could comment "it's only two yards"... 

 

It's fine not to know/understand stuff, but it ruins credibility if you keep posting things as facts, or an absolutely correct position when it's patently just not true. To have an informed conversation about a topic with someone, you have to be... informed. 

 

Blindly asserting it's all ok and JB is 100% the best bet, is the other end of the scale from people demanding we draft a QB. 

7 minutes ago, Nickster said:

 Yds/A is just that.  Yds per attempt and includes everything.  It


Personally I prefer Adjusted Net Yards per Attempt. 

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1 minute ago, SteelCityColt said:

 

So you don't understand the metric, yet felt like you could comment "it's only two yards"... 

 

It's fine not to know/understand stuff, but it ruins credibility if you keep posting things as facts, or an absolutely correct position when it's patently just not true. To have an informed conversation about a topic with someone, you have to be... informed. 

 

Blindly asserting it's all ok and JB is 100% the best bet, is the other end of the scale from people demanding we draft a QB. 


Personally I prefer Adjusted Net Yards per Attempt. 

Where did I ever say everything is ok or he doesn’t need to improve. I have never said that. I am just trying to wait until the end of the season before saying things like he can’t improve. The guy is only in his second year starting and we are five games in. Our franchise QB retired and we are 3-2. We are not going to be the same kind of team we had with Luck. The fact our WR group outside of TY is bad is a factor. You can clearly see from 2017 he was good at throwing the deep ball. Saying it’s his fourth year and he should be great is silly. He had one year with a bad coach and team. Then he sat on the bench another year. There is nothing like game experience. I trust Reich. 

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Just now, Chloe6124 said:

Where did I ever say everything is ok or he doesn’t need to improve. I have never said that. I am just trying to wait until the end of the season before saying things like he can’t improve. The guy is only in his second year starting and we are five games in. Our franchise QB retired and we are 3-2. We are not going to be the same kind of team we had with Luck. The fact our WR group outside of TY is bad is a factor. You can clearly see from 2017 he was good at throwing the deep ball. Saying it’s his fourth year and he should be great is silly. He had one year with a bad coach and team. Then he sat on the bench another year. There is nothing like game experience. I trust Reich. 

 

You've been a very vocal supporter of JB and refuse to acknowledge anything that doesn't agree with your narrative. Literally, you ignore it. 

 

How can we see he was good at throwing the long ball in 2017? Care to bring some breakdowns and examples that aren't just a highlight reel. Because I can tell you now the numbers for 2017 are similar to this season...

 

He may not have had starting experience in two of those years, but it's not like you don't develop as a player, or you should be anyway. Else why the idea behind sitting a rookie QB for a year? 

 

Your position isn't necessarily wrong, and I've always said let's see what the season brings. 

How you state it, and defend it, is at best misinformed, at worst slightly troll like. 

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33 minutes ago, Nickster said:

 

Yeah that's the question.  What level of wining football are we contemplating?  


See to me JB is very, very replaceable right now.  I am not sure Hoyer isn't a better option.  

 

The QB is asked to do very little right now so far this year.  He is in a really nice situation.  People can gripe about the WR, but I think most NFL QBs envy the situation JB is in this year with scheme, coaching, skilled talent, and line talent.  

 

Again, for me it's the stare down and the fact that most plays JB makes are pretty easy to make and 1st read type of plays.

 

He's made a few plays on the other hand.  

 

I think of him in terms of like baseball WAR.  I think he is replaceable, and I think we are looking at him near his ceiling just because of the way he appears to see the game.  

 

Now if he had say, Antonio Brown, Sproles, Julio Jones, and Rob Gronkowski would he appear better?  Well of course.  But I am not sure he would be any better.

I don't know his career stats or the circumstances that influence them, but I feel that Hoyer would throw more picks than JB would.

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4 minutes ago, DougDew said:

I don't know his career stats or the circumstances that influence them, but I feel that Hoyer would throw more picks than JB would.

Let's be honest, Hoyer probably wouldn't be here if Luck had retired prior to the start of the free agency, which is when he should have done it - at least before the draft.

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41 minutes ago, SteelCityColt said:

 

So you don't understand the metric, yet felt like you could comment "it's only two yards"... 

 

It's fine not to know/understand stuff, but it ruins credibility if you keep posting things as facts, or an absolutely correct position when it's patently just not true. To have an informed conversation about a topic with someone, you have to be... informed. 

 

Blindly asserting it's all ok and JB is 100% the best bet, is the other end of the scale from people demanding we draft a QB. 


Personally I prefer Adjusted Net Yards per Attempt. 

 

What does that include?

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1 minute ago, Nickster said:

 

What does that include?

 

Adjusted Net Yards per Pass Attempt
(Passing Yards - Sack Yards + (20 * Passing TD) - (45 * Interceptions)) / (Passes Attempted + Times Sacked)
 

 

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33 minutes ago, Chloe6124 said:

Where did I ever say everything is ok or he doesn’t need to improve. I have never said that. I am just trying to wait until the end of the season before saying things like he can’t improve. The guy is only in his second year starting and we are five games in. Our franchise QB retired and we are 3-2. We are not going to be the same kind of team we had with Luck. The fact our WR group outside of TY is bad is a factor. You can clearly see from 2017 he was good at throwing the deep ball. Saying it’s his fourth year and he should be great is silly. He had one year with a bad coach and team. Then he sat on the bench another year. There is nothing like game experience. I trust Reich. 

 

The point of message boards to me is to talk about what you think.


So yes, we won't draft a QB if we draft a QB until after the season.  So yes that's fine.


But then what is the point of talking about anything if we wait until the end of the season?  The thread would just go something like this.

 

"JB Threw for X amount of yds on X amount of attempts."  Then someone esle would write, "JB ran for x amount of yds on X amount of attempts."  Then someone would say, "The score was X to Y."  And that would be it end of thread.  Let's wait until the end of the year to evaluate.


Wouldn't that be boring?

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29 minutes ago, DougDew said:

I don't know his career stats or the circumstances that influence them, but I feel that Hoyer would throw more picks than JB would.

 

I like how you phrased that, and I don't know the circumstances either.  I might look into it. 

 

I would guess that he was on teams that weren't good, and that it was part a downfield 5-7 step drop type of offense because that is what most teams were doing.  I would guess his coaching staff wasn't as good.


I FEEL like he would probably be as good as what we've seen throwing these short balls with an often superior running game.  But yeah, I don't know either, and I ain't going to start a .com movement or order any Hoyer jerseys.  

 

This will be taken the wrong way, but I don't care.  I'd like to see JB get a bad flu or some small 2 week injury that he fully recovers from and have Hoyer go in there to guage whether there is a positive difference.

 

We have a relatively week schedule ahead and could win enough games that it looks better than what it is.

 

That being said, I am pretty confident that the Colts will use one of their high picks on a 

QB in 2020.

13 minutes ago, SteelCityColt said:

 

Adjusted Net Yards per Pass Attempt
(Passing Yards - Sack Yards + (20 * Passing TD) - (45 * Interceptions)) / (Passes Attempted + Times Sacked)
 

 

 

That seems more comprehensive.

Hey man, do you know where you can find the Saber like stats on defensive players and have any insight on what the more prescient ones might be?

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5 minutes ago, Nickster said:

 

I like how you phrased that, and I don't know the circumstances either.  I might look into it. 

 

I would guess that he was on teams that weren't good, and that it was part a downfield 5-7 step drop type of offense because that is what most teams were doing.  I would guess his coaching staff wasn't as good.


I FEEL like he would probably be as good as what we've seen throwing these short balls with an often superior running game.  But yeah, I don't know either, and I ain't going to start a .com movement or order any Hoyer jerseys.  

 

This will be taken the wrong way, but I don't care.  I'd like to see JB get a bad flu or some small 2 week injury that he fully recovers from and have Hoyer go in there to guage whether there is a positive difference.

 

We have a relatively week schedule ahead and could win enough games that it looks better than what it is.

 

That being said, I am pretty confident that the Colts will use one of their high picks on a 

QB in 2020.

 

That seems more comprehensive.

I think part of the difference between JB and Hoyer is potential upside.  We signed JB to a two year contract at a price that reflects he is the starter for those two years.  I think CB intends on playing out that contract unless something more substantial happens between now and draft day.

 

One of those substantial things could be that he loves one of this year's college QBs, but we're still early in the season to settle on that too.

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4 minutes ago, DougDew said:

I think part of the difference between JB and Hoyer is potential upside.  We signed JB to a two year contract at a price that reflects he is the starter for those two years.  I think CB intends on playing out that contract unless something more substantial happens between now and draft day.

 

One of those substantial things could be that he loves one of this year's college QBs, but we're still early in the season to settle on that too.

 

Aside from age as well, yes. I think we all know what Hoyer is. Solid backup, wouldn't necessarily lose you games in a short stretch but probably can't win you many. His value is in his experience and what he brings in the film room considering who he's worked with before. 

 

A sensible move to help JB after getting dropped on with the whole situation.

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Something important that article points out is Cain played preseason games with walker or Kelly at QB. He got no live action with JB. He also didn’t get many in TC with JB.

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2 minutes ago, DougDew said:

I think part of the difference between JB and Hoyer is potential upside.  We signed JB to a two year contract at a price that reflects he is the starter for those two years.  I think CB intends on playing out that contract unless something more substantial happens between now and draft day.

 

One of those substantial things could be that he loves one of this year's college QBs, but we're still early in the season to settle on that too.

 

I think the main difference might be that JB was in camp when Andy retired.  I was looking over Hoyer's stuff and he was 2 games over 500 as a starter for 2 years.  The 2nd year looked decent stat wise.

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31 minutes ago, Nickster said:

That seems more comprehensive.

Hey man, do you know where you can find the Saber like stats on defensive players and have any insight on what the more prescient ones might be?

 

Do you mean like sabermetrics?

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7 minutes ago, SteelCityColt said:

 

Do you mean like sabermetrics?

 

There are stats coming on line that attempt to measure things that go beyond the simple traditional stats.

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2 minutes ago, Nickster said:

 

There are stats coming on line that attempt to measure things that go beyond the simple measureable stats.

 

It's a boom industry, but a lot of things are hidden behind a paywall sadly. 

 

I repeat though, nothing beats film study. People think PFF is rubbish, but it has a more robust methodology the a lot of things held up as gospel.

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8 minutes ago, SteelCityColt said:

For some reason this topic put this in my head...

 

giphy.gif

 

Then we get to this point...

 

image.png.0e8d43c3dafa64492cb2a9169c0996f1.png

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2 minutes ago, SteelCityColt said:

 

It's a boom industry, but a lot of things are hidden behind a paywall sadly. 

 

I repeat though, nothing beats film study. People think PFF is rubbish, but it has a more robust methodology the a lot of things held up as gospel.

It really is a huge bummer.  But eventually, it'll get to the point that it is with Baseball.  Things will be more mainstream and ironed out, I think.

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23 hours ago, stitches said:

Burrow has been growing on me a lot. He looks a bit Matt Ryan-ish to me. (this is a compliment). I'd love to see how he plays against some better defenses and we will see that in the coming weeks and months. He has games against Alabama, Auburn, Florida... those are all good defenses that will test him. The scary thing is... PFF is already hyping him as QB2 and even potentially QB1 and they've been pretty influential with their QB-analysis last several years. It's very possible if he keeps up this level, he is in the same range with Tua so... out of our range in reality. This is a weird one - I want him to continue doing well because it will make the QB class better, but I don't want him to get too hyped and get himself drafter out of our range. 

 

Absolutely, that stretch is gonna be huge for Burrow. Was just reading an article about that, and Hurts having to play Texas in the Red River Shootout. It could be an interesting year for QBs, where we see as many as 6 taken in the 1st. If they go off of the board early, and it's looking like they will with MIA and CIN likely picking in the top 3, could cause a few teams to take one earlier than they otherwise would've, or force some teams to move around a bit. I think Tua, Herbert, and Fromm seem like locks, with Burrow and Hurts basically controlling their destiny's. They continue to play lights out football, idk how you pass on them if you need QB help now, or in the near future. 

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30 minutes ago, SteelCityColt said:

 

It's a boom industry, but a lot of things are hidden behind a paywall sadly. 

 

I repeat though, nothing beats film study. People think PFF is rubbish, but it has a more robust methodology the a lot of things held up as gospel.

 

I coached HS for several years.  Film study is huge.  Everything is contextual.

I was searching for those new kinds of metrics and couldn't find them.  Paywalls.  I don't pay for much on line.  Too bad.

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