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Legend of Luck

Some Random Sunday thoughts

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Sitting around on a Sunday morning and had a couple things on my mind.

1. I was thinking about the differences between the 2017 and the 2018 drafts under Ballard.

I'm a Ballard Truther if there ever was one, but everyone can agree that the '18 class was a franchise altering success, while the '17 class has been good, but not on that same level.

In projecting how the 2019 class will turn out, I was trying to determine perhaps why the 2 drafts were different, and I found 2 potential causes.

A. Pagano- Pagano and his staff likely advocated for certain players, and, perhaps reluctantly, Ballard agreed, in order to give him every opportunity to succeed on his own merits. That could also explain the success of the '18 class, perhaps Ballard and Reich/Reich's Staff are just better in sync and have a similar evaluation of talent?

B. Scouting Staff Changes- Last year, Ballard reworked the Scouting department and brought some new guys in, while keeping the guys he trusted in the building. Ballard after last years awesome draft, gave credit to his staff for big hits like Leonard, so he's made it very obvious that he really relies on and trusts his staff. Maybe he used that approach in 2017, saw the results weren't where he wanted them to be, then decided he needed to make changes?

I know there are a few (and I literally will never understand it) Ballard doubters out there that try to use '17 to paint Ballard out to be "lucky" in '18. But I think when you sit and think about it, there are definitely some underlying possibilities that could have influenced his draft selections. '19 is gonna be further proof of his draft prowess.


2. I've been doing mock drafts and kinda seeing where certain players fall, and... I know it's not a huge need (especially in Win-Now mode like we are in), but I wouldn't be shocked or necessarily upset if we drafted TE's TJ Hockensen or Noah Fant with our 1st or 2nd selection.

Ebron and Doyle are both in contract years. Doyle is a great blocker with good receiving skills. Ebron is a below average blocker (I'm really hoping that's something he's working on and developing this offseason), and a fantastic receiver.

TJ may be the next coming of Rob Gronkowski, and Noah is a supreme athletic mismatch at TE, who is continually making strides as a blocker. They are much more complete TE's than Doyle and Ebron.

Will it happen? Idk. But if we ended up with one of those "total package" tight ends, I wouldn't be upset.

3. IF the Colts are truly working on those rumored extensions for AC, Kelly, Moore, and Rigo, I would absolutely love it. Reward these guys for their great play, and get them locked in to our team and maintain our continuity for 3-4 years. Front load those contracts a bit since we have astronomical cap space this year and next, and let's maintain this monster team we're building.

4. For those who haven't done a lot of research into this years WR class, I've got a bunch of guys I'm really interested in.

Hakeem Butler
JJ Arcega-Whiteside
AJ Brown
N'Keal Harry
Terry McLaurin
Miles Boykin
Andy Isabella

If you get bored and want to look into some prospects, those are some of my favorites.

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Thanks for compiling....... as I said in another thread......

 

Chris Ballard LOVES the TE position.......  LOVES IT

 

If the DL (or other spots.... SS please)  isnt available at the right pick ........ TE could VERY WELL BE THE PICK

 

From your WR list

 

I am MOST interested in 

 

Andy Isabella

Miles Boykin (The ND fans should weigh in...... he could be there in round 3)

Hakeem Butler (The drops should concern EVERYONE..... someone found a 17% drop rate :0)

 

Its interesting on a list of WRs that you dont have Campbell on your list....... are you not considering?

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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2 minutes ago, MikeCurtis said:

Thanks for compiling....... as I said in another thread......

 

Chris Ballard LOVES the TE position.......  LOVES IT

 

If the DL (or other spots.... SS please)  isnt available at the right pick ........ TE could VERY WELL BE THE PICK

 

From your WR list

 

I am MOST interested in 

 

Andy Isabella

Miles Boykin (The ND fans should weigh in...... he could be there in round 3)

Hakeem Butler (The drops should concern EVERYONE..... someone found a 17% drop rate :0)

 

Its interesting on a list of WRs that you dont have Campbell on your list....... are you not considering?

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

I like Campbell, but I think his draft stock is blowing up way too much due to his combine performance. 

 

He didn't have the production or the tape in college to justify a 1st round selection, yet he's getting that type of hype.

 

In the 3rd round? Maybe. 1st round? Absolutely not.

 

 

And yea the drops can be a problem for Butler, I think with improved quarterback play and a chance to develop in an NFL system, our staff can help him get passed that. He's similar to Funchess in that he has good hands, but has a lot of concentration drops. But overall I love him as a prospect. 

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I imagine he's put some feelers to Ebron's agent about numbers for the next contract, and with the way free agency has gone, it makes no sense to spend that kind of money on a TE when we have a plethora of young guys about to come up for new deals. So I can see why you would think TE may just end up being the pick.

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The only thing that would surprise me is if he drafts a QB in the first 6 rounds.  

 

Other than that, I thought the 17 draft was pretty good.  Three starters, two regular contributors, couple misses.  If we do that well again, that’s a successful draft.  

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I don’t think you can underestimate the importance of Ballard and Reich being on the same page

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I would be stunned if Ballard doesn’t take a TE before round 4. Like a poster stated earlier Ballard and Reich love TE’s. I also wouldn’t be surprised at all if we draft Hockenson if he’s available in the first. He’s one of the very few 1st round offensive players I grade as a pro bowl type player. He’d come into the league as already one of the best blocking TE’s in the league. 

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you didnt mention that fact that we had much higher picks in the second draft.  nelson was one of the best players in the draft, he would not have been on the board if we were picking in the teens like before 

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If they took a TE that early we would probably see Doyle gone after this season .

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I hadnt thought about the TE position much, so thx for bringing it up. We have seen just how much they are used and the impact they have. Missing Doyle hurt as we relied on a couple of power forwards to play a lot of snaps. Ebron had a sensational year but also had some smh drops. More good than bad though. If Hockenson is the bpa, sweet. As far as wr, we need speed, yac, and hands. 

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2 hours ago, Legend of Luck said:

Sitting around on a Sunday morning and had a couple things on my mind.

1. I was thinking about the differences between the 2017 and the 2018 drafts under Ballard.

I'm a Ballard Truther if there ever was one, but everyone can agree that the '18 class was a franchise altering success, while the '17 class has been good, but not on that same level.

In projecting how the 2019 class will turn out, I was trying to determine perhaps why the 2 drafts were different, and I found 2 potential causes.

A. Pagano- Pagano and his staff likely advocated for certain players, and, perhaps reluctantly, Ballard agreed, in order to give him every opportunity to succeed on his own merits. That could also explain the success of the '18 class, perhaps Ballard and Reich/Reich's Staff are just better in sync and have a similar evaluation of talent?

B. Scouting Staff Changes- Last year, Ballard reworked the Scouting department and brought some new guys in, while keeping the guys he trusted in the building. Ballard after last years awesome draft, gave credit to his staff for big hits like Leonard, so he's made it very obvious that he really relies on and trusts his staff. Maybe he used that approach in 2017, saw the results weren't where he wanted them to be, then decided he needed to make changes?

I know there are a few (and I literally will never understand it) Ballard doubters out there that try to use '17 to paint Ballard out to be "lucky" in '18. But I think when you sit and think about it, there are definitely some underlying possibilities that could have influenced his draft selections. '19 is gonna be further proof of his draft prowess.


2. I've been doing mock drafts and kinda seeing where certain players fall, and... I know it's not a huge need (especially in Win-Now mode like we are in), but I wouldn't be shocked or necessarily upset if we drafted TE's TJ Hockensen or Noah Fant with our 1st or 2nd selection.

Ebron and Doyle are both in contract years. Doyle is a great blocker with good receiving skills. Ebron is a below average blocker (I'm really hoping that's something he's working on and developing this offseason), and a fantastic receiver.

TJ may be the next coming of Rob Gronkowski, and Noah is a supreme athletic mismatch at TE, who is continually making strides as a blocker. They are much more complete TE's than Doyle and Ebron.

Will it happen? Idk. But if we ended up with one of those "total package" tight ends, I wouldn't be upset.

3. IF the Colts are truly working on those rumored extensions for AC, Kelly, Moore, and Rigo, I would absolutely love it. Reward these guys for their great play, and get them locked in to our team and maintain our continuity for 3-4 years. Front load those contracts a bit since we have astronomical cap space this year and next, and let's maintain this monster team we're building.

4. For those who haven't done a lot of research into this years WR class, I've got a bunch of guys I'm really interested in.

Hakeem Butler
JJ Arcega-Whiteside
AJ Brown
N'Keal Harry
Terry McLaurin
Miles Boykin
Andy Isabella

If you get bored and want to look into some prospects, those are some of my favorites.

I think this forum would erupt in flames if we drafted a TE with our first round pick 

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1 hour ago, Legend of Luck said:

 

I like Campbell, but I think his draft stock is blowing up way too much due to his combine performance. 

 

He didn't have the production or the tape in college to justify a 1st round selection, yet he's getting that type of hype.

 

In the 3rd round? Maybe. 1st round? Absolutely not.

 

 

You may be right.....

 

But another thought on Campbell (I am an enormous fan of Ohio State, and watch every game)

 

The guy is one of 4 WRs that the QB would throw to ...... There were THREE WRs from Ohio State that were invited to the combine

 

The SLOW guy..... ran a 4.41  :)

 

Watch the Michigan vs Ohio State game.  Campbell had an AMAZING game ..... against a top defense in Michigan.......

 

So, my overall point is this....... he didnt have 120 catches,  because they spread the ball around

 

But 90 Catches is excellent in that enviornment....

 

There is NO ONE that runs a jet sweep like Campbell as well.......

 

And his best trait? He catches EVERYTHING

 

I think we will probably go defense with our first two picks and MISS Campbell (I think he goes in the 30's)

 

Its cool to dream  

 

 

 

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8 minutes ago, ProblChld32 said:

I think this forum would erupt in flames if we drafted a TE with our first round pick 

I agree... many disappointed fans....

 

I personally DOUBT that he goes that way

 

But......

 

Ballard has a board.........  IF A TE is at the top, ......when we pick........ Guess what will happen....

 

 

WELCOME NEW TE

 

 

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In regards to the TE position - the cheaper route is Gentry (from Michigan) as Doyle's eventual replacement in the 6th and Pederson (from Texas A&M) as Ebron's replacement in the 4th.

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I really like josh Oliver (San Jose State). He’ll likely be available in the fourth. I don’t think Ballard will select a TE in the 1st unless Hockenson slips. At #26 he’d more than likely be BPA at that point. I don’t see us selecting Fant or Smith at 26 as probably be better value else where. Too me Hockenson is a top 20 talent and would provide just as much mismatches in Reich offense then this group of Wr’s. You have to remember Reich uses a variety of sets with TE’s, sometimes having three in any formation. 

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1 hour ago, Chloe6124 said:

If they took a TE that early we would probably see Doyle gone after this season .

EbronIs  a free agent after this season and Doyle has a hard time staying healthy.   I wouldn't b surprised if they drafted a TE before a WR.  They drafted 2 WRs in last year's draft. Don't b surprised if we don't even draft one this year.  I don't think Ballard is a fan of drafting corners and WRs high in the draft. Corners in this  D can b found in later rounds.  WRs r very expensive  wen their 2nd contract rolls around. Their is no way Hockenson will b available at 26. Evaluators r really high on him.  If u watch the tape, he really has  no flaws.  

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TE will be interesting. There's value all over the draft. I love both Ebron and Doyle, but I don't see both of them getting big dollars and long terms. Ebron will be 26, and Doyle will be 29. TEs can be productive into their 30s, but typically it's the superstar great catchers that last the longest. Given Doyle's injury history, and Ebron's chemistry with Luck and TD production last year, I think you have to prioritize Ebron. He "proved it".

 

Not sure I'd draft this year, but if I did, it would be late. One late guy that I like is Alize Mack. Incredible hands and athleticism, but wasn't really utilized like he should have been at ND. I think he'd be dynamic with Luck.

 

Another possibility, which is a stretch, is using Funchess in a hybrid TE / jumbo WR role. He has played both TE and WR. I think his career would have been far more productive had he stuck with TE. In fact, Funchess and Alize remind me a lot of each other. Alize is an inch taller and 10lbs heavier though.

 

As far as Ballard goes. He had a rock star year in 18, not so much in 17. I'm a realist. It's unhealthy to get too high on a GM for one year. If you do, you're setting yourself up for disappointment. We're in a great position cap wise going into the 19 draft and season. Let's all hope we have the same luck this year. Time will tell on Ballard. He's trending extremely well, but save the crown for after we've made it to the AFC Championship and/or SB a few years.

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I think Funchess in a TE /Receiver role would be almost like how we used Ebron last season. Would work very well.  I think Reich will put him in a situation where he will succeed. It will be interesting to see if ebrons numbers go down with Funchess here. Chances they will are pretty good. But doesn’t make him less valuable to the team.

 

Doyle is going to be interesting. He will have to come back and prove we missed him last season. Maybe we wait another year to get Doyle’s replacement. Or draft one later and try to develop one.

 

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18 minutes ago, Moosejawcolt said:

EbronIs  a free agent after this season and Doyle has a hard time staying healthy.   I wouldn't b surprised if they drafted a TE before a WR.  They drafted 2 WRs in last year's draft. Don't b surprised if we don't even draft one this year.  I don't think Ballard is a fan of drafting corners and WRs high in the draft. Corners in this  D can b found in later rounds.  WRs r very expensive  wen their 2nd contract rolls around. Their is no way Hockenson will b available at 26. Evaluators r really high on him.  If u watch the tape, he really has  no flaws.  

Doyle and Ebron are both FA. I think if Ebron has another season like last he has to be priority. Doyle is 30 so his context might not be to bad. 

 

 

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1 hour ago, Scott Pennock said:

In regards to the TE position - the cheaper route is Gentry (from Michigan) as Doyle's eventual replacement in the 6th and Pederson (from Texas A&M) as Ebron's replacement in the 4th.

 

I think the opportunity to have both skill sets in one player could really be attractive to Frank. Not having to be obvious and sub TEs for certain situations. It's what makes Kelce and Gronk so dangerous. 

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3 hours ago, Legend of Luck said:

Sitting around on a Sunday morning and had a couple things on my mind.

1. I was thinking about the differences between the 2017 and the 2018 drafts under Ballard.

I'm a Ballard Truther if there ever was one, but everyone can agree that the '18 class was a franchise altering success, while the '17 class has been good, but not on that same level.

In projecting how the 2019 class will turn out, I was trying to determine perhaps why the 2 drafts were different, and I found 2 potential causes.

A. Pagano- Pagano and his staff likely advocated for certain players, and, perhaps reluctantly, Ballard agreed, in order to give him every opportunity to succeed on his own merits. That could also explain the success of the '18 class, perhaps Ballard and Reich/Reich's Staff are just better in sync and have a similar evaluation of talent?

B. Scouting Staff Changes- Last year, Ballard reworked the Scouting department and brought some new guys in, while keeping the guys he trusted in the building. Ballard after last years awesome draft, gave credit to his staff for big hits like Leonard, so he's made it very obvious that he really relies on and trusts his staff. Maybe he used that approach in 2017, saw the results weren't where he wanted them to be, then decided he needed to make changes?

I know there are a few (and I literally will never understand it) Ballard doubters out there that try to use '17 to paint Ballard out to be "lucky" in '18. But I think when you sit and think about it, there are definitely some underlying possibilities that could have influenced his draft selections. '19 is gonna be further proof of his draft prowess.


2. I've been doing mock drafts and kinda seeing where certain players fall, and... I know it's not a huge need (especially in Win-Now mode like we are in), but I wouldn't be shocked or necessarily upset if we drafted TE's TJ Hockensen or Noah Fant with our 1st or 2nd selection.

Ebron and Doyle are both in contract years. Doyle is a great blocker with good receiving skills. Ebron is a below average blocker (I'm really hoping that's something he's working on and developing this offseason), and a fantastic receiver.

TJ may be the next coming of Rob Gronkowski, and Noah is a supreme athletic mismatch at TE, who is continually making strides as a blocker. They are much more complete TE's than Doyle and Ebron.

Will it happen? Idk. But if we ended up with one of those "total package" tight ends, I wouldn't be upset.

3. IF the Colts are truly working on those rumored extensions for AC, Kelly, Moore, and Rigo, I would absolutely love it. Reward these guys for their great play, and get them locked in to our team and maintain our continuity for 3-4 years. Front load those contracts a bit since we have astronomical cap space this year and next, and let's maintain this monster team we're building.

4. For those who haven't done a lot of research into this years WR class, I've got a bunch of guys I'm really interested in.

Hakeem Butler
JJ Arcega-Whiteside
AJ Brown
N'Keal Harry
Terry McLaurin
Miles Boykin
Andy Isabella

If you get bored and want to look into some prospects, those are some of my favorites.

 

I totally disagree blaming Pagano on '17 Draft. I think it's way past time we stop using pagano/griggs as scape goats in ballards reign. He's the GM and it's Totally on him on Draft Day.

 

Last years draft was a ideal setup for us. We started with the #3 Overall pick in a deep QB class and plenty of QB hungry teams dying to trade up and get their franchise QB. We took full advantage of that by gainning multiple high picks while only moving down 3 spots.

We didn't have that opportunity in '17 and we won't next month. This makes it harder of course.

 

I hope you are right on drafting a TE early. I haven't done any scouting but if theres one with half the talent of Gronk we should run up to draft him.

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3 hours ago, Legend of Luck said:

Sitting around on a Sunday morning and had a couple things on my mind.

1. I was thinking about the differences between the 2017 and the 2018 drafts under Ballard.

I'm a Ballard Truther if there ever was one, but everyone can agree that the '18 class was a franchise altering success, while the '17 class has been good, but not on that same level.

In projecting how the 2019 class will turn out, I was trying to determine perhaps why the 2 drafts were different, and I found 2 potential causes.

A. Pagano- Pagano and his staff likely advocated for certain players, and, perhaps reluctantly, Ballard agreed, in order to give him every opportunity to succeed on his own merits. That could also explain the success of the '18 class, perhaps Ballard and Reich/Reich's Staff are just better in sync and have a similar evaluation of talent?

B. Scouting Staff Changes- Last year, Ballard reworked the Scouting department and brought some new guys in, while keeping the guys he trusted in the building. Ballard after last years awesome draft, gave credit to his staff for big hits like Leonard, so he's made it very obvious that he really relies on and trusts his staff. Maybe he used that approach in 2017, saw the results weren't where he wanted them to be, then decided he needed to make changes?

I know there are a few (and I literally will never understand it) Ballard doubters out there that try to use '17 to paint Ballard out to be "lucky" in '18. But I think when you sit and think about it, there are definitely some underlying possibilities that could have influenced his draft selections. '19 is gonna be further proof of his draft prowess.


 

It's hard to pinpoint a reason for one draft being more successful than the other and there are so few picks that IMO it's almost pointless to try to evaluate and compare drafts to eachother when it comes to the process behind them. IMO we need much bigger sample size in order to start making more sweeping statements about Ballard and his drafting prowess and strategy. What I will add to your list here is the pure draft position. It's easier to draft earlier in the draft than late in the draft.

 

To me both Hooker and WIlson fit Ballard's professed preference for secondary players(playmakers that turn the ball over) coming out of the draft. I think Basham fit the mold of his stated preference of EDGE players(he's big on the HWS prototype for DLinemen). You can see that because IMO Tyquan Lewis is very similar to Basham in his physical and athletic profile and he drafted him after failing on Basham the previous season. I think this is a legitimate prototype to be looking at.  (here I'm not talking about the quality of the players they are/turn out to be... I'm talking about the type and mold of player they are). I wouldn't be shocked if Clellin Ferrell fell to us we draft him. He looks like another one of this mold of players. 

 

The one pick I think might have been heavily influenced by the coaching staff at the time is Banner. There were stories at the time that he was a Philbin pick. He went to California and spent several days with him and wanted him reportedly. IMO he is very far from what Ballard looks for. You can see with the way he drafted in 2018 and most of the FAs he signed. Nelson is no brainer, but Braden Smith was an athletic player and the fact that he's transitioned to the tackle spot is further evidence for that. Glowinski who we claimed off waivers is another very athletic player coming out of college. In light of that, the pick of Banner looks really out of place IMO. 

 

Grover was athletic freak for his size on the DLine, too... 

 

So to summarize - I think I put the 2017 draft almost exclusively to Ballard with the exception of the Banner pick. I am not sure Chuck was to blame for any of it really. 


 

Quote

2. I've been doing mock drafts and kinda seeing where certain players fall, and... I know it's not a huge need (especially in Win-Now mode like we are in), but I wouldn't be shocked or necessarily upset if we drafted TE's TJ Hockensen or Noah Fant with our 1st or 2nd selection.

Ebron and Doyle are both in contract years. Doyle is a great blocker with good receiving skills. Ebron is a below average blocker (I'm really hoping that's something he's working on and developing this offseason), and a fantastic receiver.

TJ may be the next coming of Rob Gronkowski, and Noah is a supreme athletic mismatch at TE, who is continually making strides as a blocker. They are much more complete TE's than Doyle and Ebron.

Will it happen? Idk. But if we ended up with one of those "total package" tight ends, I wouldn't be upset.

 

Yeah. Same. Luck loves himself the TEs. And Reich is pretty big on using TEs in his system too, so it's a good marriage. Not every team in the league knows how to use TEs effectively. Reich thrives on formations featuring multiple TEs... even up to 3 sometime. Can you imagine a Doyle/Hockenson/Ebron formation with all 3 of them being threat in the passing game and Hockenson and Doyle being among the elite blockers at the position. There are so many mismatches we can force. BTW both Doyle and Ebron's contracts are up after next year. So... preparing for the future is smart IMO. I would be shocked if Ballard wanted to pay big money to 2 different TEs after next season. 

 

Quote

3. IF the Colts are truly working on those rumored extensions for AC, Kelly, Moore, and Rigo, I would absolutely love it. Reward these guys for their great play, and get them locked in to our team and maintain our continuity for 3-4 years. Front load those contracts a bit since we have astronomical cap space this year and next, and let's maintain this monster team we're building.

 

I wouldn't mind extending AC. I would probably wait on the others. 

 

Quote

4. For those who haven't done a lot of research into this years WR class, I've got a bunch of guys I'm really interested in.

Hakeem Butler
JJ Arcega-Whiteside
AJ Brown
N'Keal Harry
Terry McLaurin
Miles Boykin
Andy Isabella

If you get bored and want to look into some prospects, those are some of my favorites.

I like most of those. Check Parris Campbell if you get the chance. 

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I could see ballard letting Doyle test the market like he did with Desir and Geathers. In the end Doyle comes back.  At his age he won’t cost a ton. Plus with him being a Indianapolis kid I could see him taking less to stay here.

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2 hours ago, MikeCurtis said:

You may be right.....

 

But another thought on Campbell (I am an enormous fan of Ohio State, and watch every game)

 

The guy is one of 4 WRs that the QB would throw to ...... There were THREE WRs from Ohio State that were invited to the combine

 

The SLOW guy..... ran a 4.41  :)

 

Watch the Michigan vs Ohio State game.  Campbell had an AMAZING game ..... against a top defense in Michigan.......

 

So, my overall point is this....... he didnt have 120 catches,  because they spread the ball around

 

But 90 Catches is excellent in that enviornment....

 

There is NO ONE that runs a jet sweep like Campbell as well.......

 

And his best trait? He catches EVERYTHING

 

I think we will probably go defense with our first two picks and MISS Campbell (I think he goes in the 30's)

 

Its cool to dream  

 

 

 

 

As a fellow Buckeye, I also think we won’t get Campbell.  But I’d love to get McClaurin in a later round, may the 3rd or 4th.  

 

He has Colt written all over him, great teammate, hard worker, etc., not to mention blazing speed.  He has his faults, obviously, or he’d be a higher pick.  

 

Also, he’s an Indy native.  

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1 hour ago, Irish YJ said:

TE will be interesting. There's value all over the draft. I love both Ebron and Doyle, but I don't see both of them getting big dollars and long terms. Ebron will be 26, and Doyle will be 29. TEs can be productive into their 30s, but typically it's the superstar great catchers that last the longest. Given Doyle's injury history, and Ebron's chemistry with Luck and TD production last year, I think you have to prioritize Ebron. He "proved it".

 

Not sure I'd draft this year, but if I did, it would be late. One late guy that I like is Alize Mack. Incredible hands and athleticism, but wasn't really utilized like he should have been at ND. I think he'd be dynamic with Luck.

 

Another possibility, which is a stretch, is using Funchess in a hybrid TE / jumbo WR role. He has played both TE and WR. I think his career would have been far more productive had he stuck with TE. In fact, Funchess and Alize remind me a lot of each other. Alize is an inch taller and 10lbs heavier though.

 

As far as Ballard goes. He had a rock star year in 18, not so much in 17. I'm a realist. It's unhealthy to get too high on a GM for one year. If you do, you're setting yourself up for disappointment. We're in a great position cap wise going into the 19 draft and season. Let's all hope we have the same luck this year. Time will tell on Ballard. He's trending extremely well, but save the crown for after we've made it to the AFC Championship and/or SB a few years.

 

This is silly. We have the same “Luck” every year. :sip:

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4 hours ago, Legend of Luck said:

Sitting around on a Sunday morning and had a couple things on my mind.

1. I was thinking about the differences between the 2017 and the 2018 drafts under Ballard.

I'm a Ballard Truther if there ever was one, but everyone can agree that the '18 class was a franchise altering success, while the '17 class has been good, but not on that same level.

In projecting how the 2019 class will turn out, I was trying to determine perhaps why the 2 drafts were different, and I found 2 potential causes.

A. Pagano- Pagano and his staff likely advocated for certain players, and, perhaps reluctantly, Ballard agreed, in order to give him every opportunity to succeed on his own merits. That could also explain the success of the '18 class, perhaps Ballard and Reich/Reich's Staff are just better in sync and have a similar evaluation of talent?

B. Scouting Staff Changes- Last year, Ballard reworked the Scouting department and brought some new guys in, while keeping the guys he trusted in the building. Ballard after last years awesome draft, gave credit to his staff for big hits like Leonard, so he's made it very obvious that he really relies on and trusts his staff. Maybe he used that approach in 2017, saw the results weren't where he wanted them to be, then decided he needed to make changes?

I know there are a few (and I literally will never understand it) Ballard doubters out there that try to use '17 to paint Ballard out to be "lucky" in '18. But I think when you sit and think about it, there are definitely some underlying possibilities that could have influenced his draft selections. '19 is gonna be further proof of his draft prowess.


2. I've been doing mock drafts and kinda seeing where certain players fall, and... I know it's not a huge need (especially in Win-Now mode like we are in), but I wouldn't be shocked or necessarily upset if we drafted TE's TJ Hockensen or Noah Fant with our 1st or 2nd selection.

Ebron and Doyle are both in contract years. Doyle is a great blocker with good receiving skills. Ebron is a below average blocker (I'm really hoping that's something he's working on and developing this offseason), and a fantastic receiver.

TJ may be the next coming of Rob Gronkowski, and Noah is a supreme athletic mismatch at TE, who is continually making strides as a blocker. They are much more complete TE's than Doyle and Ebron.

Will it happen? Idk. But if we ended up with one of those "total package" tight ends, I wouldn't be upset.

3. IF the Colts are truly working on those rumored extensions for AC, Kelly, Moore, and Rigo, I would absolutely love it. Reward these guys for their great play, and get them locked in to our team and maintain our continuity for 3-4 years. Front load those contracts a bit since we have astronomical cap space this year and next, and let's maintain this monster team we're building.

4. For those who haven't done a lot of research into this years WR class, I've got a bunch of guys I'm really interested in.

Hakeem Butler
JJ Arcega-Whiteside
AJ Brown
N'Keal Harry
Terry McLaurin
Miles Boykin
Andy Isabella

If you get bored and want to look into some prospects, those are some of my favorites.

I think we have to remember that Ballard was working with coaches on borrowed time.  In the 2017 draft, he really didnt know who would be coaching in the near future, what schemes and fronts, and the specific players to draft to fit.

  Or you could go with "it was his first draft."

we can't get hung up on matching the 2018 draft, becaus the history of the draft says we probably wont see him hat again in our lifetimes.   Not to that degree.  Part of it was good drafting, part of it was having so many holes last year, many of our rookies (most) saw significant playing time out of necessity.  As we fill out the roster, most rookues will be eased in behind the starters.  Except for early picks, in most cases.

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1 hour ago, Legend of Luck said:

 

I think the opportunity to have both skill sets in one player could really be attractive to Frank. Not having to be obvious and sub TEs for certain situations. It's what makes Kelce and Gronk so dangerous. 

True statement, that is where the continued development of Mo Alie-Cox comes into play.

 

An in-line blocking tight end that can also stretch the seams as a pass catcher 'Technically' does fall into the build from the trenches out concept.....

 

Could Ballard throw a curveball and draft Hockenson!??!

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22 minutes ago, throwing BBZ said:

Any talk of Hock is wasted.

And we are NOT in win now mode.
Bob    Loblaw.

So it shall be written.

So it shall be done.

 

Yul Brynner.... The Ten Commandments.

 

 

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3 minutes ago, WoolMagnet said:

So it shall be written.

So it shall be done.

 

Yul Brynner.... The Ten Commandments.

 

 


 Epic by all accounts.

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3 minutes ago, throwing BBZ said:


 Epic by all accounts.

........ (in VERY low voice)......" I am the god of Abraham".....

 

LOVE THAT MOVIE

Ben Hurr not too shabby either..

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49 minutes ago, Happy2BeHere said:

 

This is silly. We have the same “Luck” every year. :sip:

we didn't have the same Luck in 2016 :hissy:

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5 hours ago, Smonroe said:

The only thing that would surprise me is if he drafts a QB in the first 6 rounds.  

 

Other than that, I thought the 17 draft was pretty good.  Three starters, two regular contributors, couple misses.  If we do that well again, that’s a successful draft.  

 

If you're hitting above .500 in the draft you're doing very good.  Especially if you're not blowing it on first and second rounders.  Hooker is a very good safety, which was Ballard's first 1st round pick.  Wilson looks as though he is on his way to developing into our starting CB which was his first 2nd round pick.  We got 3 starters from our first 2 rounds last year (and 2 first team all-pros).

 

Ballard had a successful draft year 1 and a draft he knocked out of the park in year 2.  He's doing just fine.

 

4 hours ago, boo2202 said:

I would be stunned if Ballard doesn’t take a TE before round 4. Like a poster stated earlier Ballard and Reich love TE’s. I also wouldn’t be surprised at all if we draft Hockenson if he’s available in the first. He’s one of the very few 1st round offensive players I grade as a pro bowl type player. He’d come into the league as already one of the best blocking TE’s in the league. 

 

Given Doyle's health concerns and the lack of depth after him and Ebron (I think Mo Alie-Cox can become a very good player, and I think Ross Travis/Gabe Holmes can be OK back-ups), I think you are right that we'll take a TE in this draft.  Reich likes to utilize the TE's, and we're in rough shape (IMO) right now if Ebron goes down.  Plus, we don't even know if Doyle will play football again.  He's out until at least training camp with a busted hip.  I hope he comes back, but those things are pretty unpredictable.

 

3 hours ago, Moosejawcolt said:

EbronIs  a free agent after this season and Doyle has a hard time staying healthy.   I wouldn't b surprised if they drafted a TE before a WR.  They drafted 2 WRs in last year's draft. Don't b surprised if we don't even draft one this year.  I don't think Ballard is a fan of drafting corners and WRs high in the draft. Corners in this  D can b found in later rounds.  WRs r very expensive  wen their 2nd contract rolls around. Their is no way Hockenson will b available at 26. Evaluators r really high on him.  If u watch the tape, he really has  no flaws.  

 

There's still quite a bit of free agency left before the draft.  The Colts are talking with Inman about extending him, and they are really the only ones who know how well Cain is progressing and what they expect him to look like come regular season.  If we resign Inman, along with Funchess and TY, that seems like a formidable top 3 WRs.  The front office also likely knows what they think to expect from Fountain, some of the P.S. guys last year and what they may expect from Marcus Johnson.  

 

Not only has Doyle had a hard time staying healthy, the injury he has is one that is not an easy one to come back to full strength from.  Hip surgeries are getting better every year due to improved medical technology, but they are by no means something that every person recovers from, especially when their livelihood depends on making hard cuts, taking on 300+ pound players as a blocker, jumping, and being tackled.  They say he's making good progress, but they wouldn't tell us if the opposite was happening.... and he could be making good progress but take one bad shot to the hip and be done for good.

 

I think if we re-sign Inman that depth is more of a concern at TE than WR.  However, I really wouldn't mind us adding another WR to this team that has home-run power.  We saw how vulnerable our pass game became in the playoffs last year when TY was playing hurt and a step slow.  Now that we know Andrew has his arm back and are pretty confident that we can give him time to throw, this offense would be that much more dangerous.  We only had 5 or 6 games last year with a reception that went for over 40 yards (long 68), and I'm pretty sure not all of them were deep passes.  I know this offense is built a lot on timing, but it'd be really scary if they built a few plays in that let Andrew drop back and blow the roof off the defense.

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3 hours ago, LJpalmbeacher2 said:

 

I totally disagree blaming Pagano on '17 Draft. I think it's way past time we stop using pagano/griggs as scape goats in ballards reign. He's the GM and it's Totally on him on Draft Day.

 

Last years draft was a ideal setup for us. We started with the #3 Overall pick in a deep QB class and plenty of QB hungry teams dying to trade up and get their franchise QB. We took full advantage of that by gainning multiple high picks while only moving down 3 spots.

We didn't have that opportunity in '17 and we won't next month. This makes it harder of course.

 

I hope you are right on drafting a TE early. I haven't done any scouting but if theres one with half the talent of Gronk we should run up to draft him.

 

My intention isnt to blame Chuck or put it on him. I love Chuck. I just think, when having these discussions,  its important to not forget major variables like how much the previous staff influenced picks. It is a part of the equation. How much? We'll never know. But it does have some amount of influence. 

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This year will also be really interesting because it's the 1st "normal year" Ballard has had. 

 

Same coach, same scouts, same processes and no injured Andrew to worry about. 

 

They can have complete focus on doing things THEIR way, with no distractions. I feel like that is just gonna make them even more successful. 

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4 minutes ago, Legend of Luck said:

This year will also be really interesting because it's the 1st "normal year" Ballard has had. 

 

Same coach, same scouts, same processes and no injured Andrew to worry about. 

 

They can have complete focus on doing things THEIR way, with no distractions. I feel like that is just gonna make them even more successful. 

exactly. and he's got many of "his own" kids now. it should be more fine tuning, than fork lifting.

 

i've tempered my expectations for the draft and season this year, but it's hard coming off last year's draft and the second half of the 2018 season.

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2 minutes ago, Irish YJ said:

exactly. and he's got many of "his own" kids now. it should be more fine tuning, than fork lifting.

 

i've tempered my expectations for the draft and season this year, but it's hard coming off last year's draft and the second half of the 2018 season.

 

My only hesitation going into the season is that our schedule is much harder.

 

I think the team will be clearly better, especially from the jump, seeing as we will have continuity across the entire team and coaching staff.

 

Having basically the same team back for '19 will make this year smoother all around, and I think we will be even better/more consistent than we were down the stretch. 

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We will be a better team but with that schedule we might have the same record. What I wouldn’t give to have home field throughout the playoffs. Even a second seed would be great. I just hope we can do better then a wild card.

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What ever Ballard chooses to do in round 1, I am on board with it. He is the man IMO after last years draft. I prefer D.Line but if he goes a different route I trust what he is doing. I do not complain much though. You can never have too much depth on the D.Line. SB's are won in the trenches = D.Line/O.Line and with a good to great QB.

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