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JRnINDY

Barkley & B. Chubb if 2017 class

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I feel the 2018 class is weak, so where would the two be in last years 2017 draft.

Barkley would have been a top 10 pick if not the first RB selected in a awesome RB class.

Chubb would have been in the 2nd round. The edge players this year are muck weaker than 2017.

 

with that said, I'd love a Chubb draft for us:

B. Chubb in 1st

N. Chubb in 2nd

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So he would of been a 2nd rounder last year but because every colts fan is so desperate for a pass rusher you wanna take him in the top 5 over better players?

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58 minutes ago, JRnINDY said:

I feel the 2018 class is weak, so where would the two be in last years 2017 draft.

Barkley would have been a top 10 pick if not the first RB selected in a awesome RB class.

Chubb would have been in the 2nd round. The edge players this year are muck weaker than 2017.

 

with that said, I'd love a Chubb draft for us:

B. Chubb in 1st

N. Chubb in 2nd

 

Sorry...   but no....

 

There is no world in which Bradley Chubb the DE/OLB from NC State would've been a second round pick in last year's draft....

 

Or in ANY years draft for that matter.

 

Chubb is a top 5 player in this year's draft.   Last year, he'd have been top 10...

 

This year's draft is not as good as last year's.   But it's not THAT bad.

 

Chubb is a very, very talented player.   If you think he'd be a second round pick then you're not following the draft close enough to know...    Sorry.

 

Just because the EDGE CLASS is not as strong, doesn't mean that the best player of the class is not good, or, as you put it, a second rounder.

 

That's a mis-evaluation.   Chubb is a much better player than you realize...

 

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Why does everyone discount Fournette too the guy is amazing the jags I believe have the number 1 rushing attack in the league and he's an even better pass catcher then people thought he would be going into his rookie year 

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41 minutes ago, gacoop1 said:

Barkley and Mack in the backfield sounds awesome to me.

How does 23 sacks for a season as a team sound to you? Or no. 31 in pass-rush in the league?

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2 hours ago, JRnINDY said:

I feel the 2018 class is weak, so where would the two be in last years 2017 draft.

Barkley would have been a top 10 pick if not the first RB selected in a awesome RB class.

Chubb would have been in the 2nd round. The edge players this year are muck weaker than 2017.

 

with that said, I'd love a Chubb draft for us:

B. Chubb in 1st

N. Chubb in 2nd

Chubb would have been clearly taken ahead of every pass-rusher past Barnett and very possibly ahead of Barnett as well. Depending on his testing he might have gone top 5 in last year's draft, too... ... 

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43 minutes ago, stitches said:

How does 23 sacks for a season as a team sound to you? Or no. 31 in pass-rush in the league?

You can’t fix this team with one draft.

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7 minutes ago, Indy Fan said:

You can’t fix this team with one draft.

But you can surely start with the best prospect at the second most elite position in the league. Good pass-rushers don't hit free agency anymore so we will need to draft ours and this is a great opportunity to do that. IMO the value is not there for us to make a luxury pick like Barkley at 3. 

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People like to forget that last year, Myles Garrett was one of the most polished and elite pass rushing prospects to come out of the draft in a long time. He was once in a generation calibre. 

 

Chubb is obviously not at that level. But he's still very very good. No doubt a top 5 prospect, and if Indy passes on him, some team behind them will be very happy that they did.

 

The question is, do you like him enough to take him third overall? That's what Ballard and co. will obviously spend the next 4 months figuring out.

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Barkley is the number one prospect in the entire draft.  Hands down.  Chubb is probably the number one ER in the draft.  Where does that put him as an overall draft prospect?  As an overall pro prospect how does he measure up against all the other positions?  If all you care about is drafting an ER he is probably your guy.  If you want the BPA I think he has a lot of competition.  Draft for Need or draft BPA.  That's what it comes down to.  If two Qb's go before us the choice is a no brainer.  You take Barkley.  Ballard has said BPA over need.  How can you argue with the man. In Ballard we trust.  Not to worry though he will trade back and they both will be gone when we pick. 

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5 hours ago, NewColtsFan said:

 

Sorry...   but no....

 

There is no world in which Bradley Chubb the DE/OLB from NC State would've been a second round pick in last year's draft....

 

Or in ANY years draft for that matter.

 

Chubb is a top 5 player in this year's draft.   Last year, he'd have been top 10...

 

This year's draft is not as good as last year's.   But it's not THAT bad.

 

Chubb is a very, very talented player.   If you think he'd be a second round pick then you're not following the draft close enough to know...    Sorry.

 

Just because the EDGE CLASS is not as strong, doesn't mean that the best player of the class is not good, or, as you put it, a second rounder.

 

That's a mis-evaluation.   Chubb is a much better player than you realize...

 

With the way things panned out last draft I imagain Chubb would have been taken 13 or 14 by either the cardinals in place of Riddick or Barnett from the eagles. Without the run on QB's probably a top 10

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5 hours ago, Colts_Fan12 said:

Why does everyone discount Fournette too the guy is amazing the jags I believe have the number 1 rushing attack in the league and he's an even better pass catcher then people thought he would be going into his rookie year 

 Because he really hasn't been anything special.

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Regarding Fournette, he has great potential and hasn't been bad this season but he seems injury prone. He hasn't lived up to his rookie hype IMO. Barkley will be a better back IMO, because not only is he faster, he is a better receiver as well.

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5 hours ago, Colts_Fan12 said:

That's completely false 

He's averaging a mind blowing 3.9 ypc.  His season pretty much consists of a 75 yard run against the Rams and a meaningless 95 yarder vs the Steelers when the game was already decided.

if he wasn't a big name coming out of college nobody would even be talking about him.

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11 hours ago, richard pallo said:

Barkley is the number one prospect in the entire draft.  Hands down.  Chubb is probably the number one ER in the draft.  Where does that put him as an overall draft prospect?  As an overall pro prospect how does he measure up against all the other positions?  If all you care about is drafting an ER he is probably your guy.  If you want the BPA I think he has a lot of competition.  Draft for Need or draft BPA.  That's what it comes down to.  If two Qb's go before us the choice is a no brainer.  You take Barkley.  Ballard has said BPA over need.  How can you argue with the man. In Ballard we trust.  Not to worry though he will trade back and they both will be gone when we pick. 

Delete

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11 minutes ago, BOTT said:

He's averaging a mind blowing 3.9 ypc.  His season pretty much consists of a 75 yard run against the Rams and a meaningless 95 yarder vs the Steelers when the game was already decided.

if he wasn't a big name coming out of college nobody would even be talking about him.

I don't think he has lived up to his hype either. I was even one of the few that said Kareem Hunt would be better and was hoping we would've drafted him. Having said that, Barkley will be better than Hunt and Fournette IMO

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I think trading down in the first is still the best option but I do like Nick Chubb in the 2nd round.  I've seen him compared to Frank Gore who's obviously done well for us.  It would be awesome to have Frank Gore minus 12 years of age.

 

While I wouldn't be too upset I still don't believe in investing 1st round pick in RB's.  My reasons are as follows.

 

1. They are injured often.

2. Their careers are shorter then most other players.  

3. The cost for a FA RB is not very high.  There are first round RB's on their rookie contracts in the top 5 at that position right now.  At no other position would you see someone on their rookie contract in the top 5 in pay.  

4. It seems to me that you are better off using picks to build a dominate offensive line then a top level RB.  If your O-Line can create holes and your RB has the vision to find those holes and run through them, you will gain yards.  

5. The difference ability from the best RB in the NFL to #32 is small.  On top of this you can find a ton of really good RB's out there who have been taken in the 2nd round.  It's not a premium position to where there is very little talent to be had in the 2nd round.  There is plenty of talent to grab in the 2nd.  

6. While Barkley would qualify as a 3 down back and this wouldn't apply to him, other RB's who don't have been taken in the first round.  No player who can't play all 3 downs is worth a first round pick.  

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3 hours ago, BOTT said:

He's averaging a mind blowing 3.9 ypc.  His season pretty much consists of a 75 yard run against the Rams and a meaningless 95 yarder vs the Steelers when the game was already decided.

if he wasn't a big name coming out of college nobody would even be talking about him.

He's 8th in the league in rushing as a rookie that's with missing time. He's about to get a 1000 yards this season and is tied for 3 amongst running backs in TDs. I'm sure the Jags are very happy they took him he didn't come into the league with the best o line like Elliott either.

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36 minutes ago, Colts_Fan12 said:

He's 8th in the league in rushing as a rookie that's with missing time. He's about to get a 1000 yards this season and is tied for 3 amongst running backs in TDs. I'm sure the Jags are very happy they took him he didn't come into the league with the best o line like Elliott either.

That would be great for a 5th round pick.

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13 hours ago, twfish said:

With the way things panned out last draft I imagain Chubb would have been taken 13 or 14 by either the cardinals in place of Riddick or Barnett from the eagles. Without the run on QB's probably a top 10

I'd take Chubb over every single one of the RBs and WRs in last year's draft too. 

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56 minutes ago, Valpo2004 said:

I think trading down in the first is still the best option but I do like Nick Chubb in the 2nd round.  I've seen him compared to Frank Gore who's obviously done well for us.  It would be awesome to have Frank Gore minus 12 years of age.

 

While I wouldn't be too upset I still don't believe in investing 1st round pick in RB's.  My reasons are as follows.

 

1. They are injured often.

2. Their careers are shorter then most other players.  

3. The cost for a FA RB is not very high.  There are first round RB's on their rookie contracts in the top 5 at that position right now.  At no other position would you see someone on their rookie contract in the top 5 in pay.  

4. It seems to me that you are better off using picks to build a dominate offensive line then a top level RB.  If your O-Line can create holes and your RB has the vision to find those holes and run through them, you will gain yards.  

5. The difference ability from the best RB in the NFL to #32 is small.  On top of this you can find a ton of really good RB's out there who have been taken in the 2nd round.  It's not a premium position to where there is very little talent to be had in the 2nd round.  There is plenty of talent to grab in the 2nd.  

6. While Barkley would qualify as a 3 down back and this wouldn't apply to him, other RB's who don't have been taken in the first round.  No player who can't play all 3 downs is worth a first round pick.  

The Hall of Fame is filled with 1st round RBs though. AP is going to make the HOF as another 1st round RB. With the exception of Terrell Davis, historically the best RBs are taken in the first round. You can throw at names like Le’Veon Bell and Jordan Howard all you want but the stats still show what the truth is. A couple recent success stories doesn’t change that.

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12 minutes ago, BOTT said:

That would be great for a 5th round pick.

A bit overstated but overall I agree with the sentiment. Fournette has not been special this year. 

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17 minutes ago, Defjamz26 said:

The Hall of Fame is filled with 1st round RBs though. AP is going to make the HOF as another 1st round RB. With the exception of Terrell Davis, historically the best RBs are taken in the first round. You can throw at names like Le’Veon Bell and Jordan Howard all you want but the stats still show what the truth is. A couple recent success stories doesn’t change that.

 

I would contend that the majority of those first HoF RB's played in a different era.  The game is just different today with the way most teams build their roster.  1 = QB, 2 = protect the QB and 3 = get after the QB.

 

I think a better indicator (and research project) would be to see the draft positions of the top ten rushers in the league over the last decade.  Further interest would be the team's of those RBs won-loss record.  I am going to guess that the majority of those will be mid-round picks and the win-loss correlation to be low.  Might just look into this over the Holidays.

 

Now in the process of their scouting and setting the board, the Colts have Barkley rated way ahead of Chubb or anyone else, take him and don't look back.  But if their ratings are similar, you take Chubb ten times out of ten.

 

 

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27 minutes ago, Defjamz26 said:

The Hall of Fame is filled with 1st round RBs though. AP is going to make the HOF as another 1st round RB. With the exception of Terrell Davis, historically the best RBs are taken in the first round. You can throw at names like Le’Veon Bell and Jordan Howard all you want but the stats still show what the truth is. A couple recent success stories doesn’t change that.

In the past the position was more highly regarded so it makes sense that a lot of 1st round backs are in the hof.

 

edit ^^ what he said

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Have him on the ignore list but I don’t think RB is devalued as a lot of people like to claim. Those elite guys are still getting drafted high in the 1st round. The only reason there was that 2 year gap without a RB going in the first was because there wasn’t any RBs worthy. It’s still a valued position. It not for off the field concerns you would have seen Mixon and Cook join Fournette and McCaffery in the 1st round.

 

Not to mention that the success of late round RB pushes their value up, not down. Anytime there’s a RB with at least 4.40 or faster speed, who had elite production in college, went to at least a power 5 school, has no significant off the field issues, and can play on all 3 downs, he’s probably going in the 1st round. 

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44 minutes ago, Defjamz26 said:

Have him on the ignore list but I don’t think RB is devalued as a lot of people like to claim. Those elite guys are still getting drafted high in the 1st round. The only reason there was that 2 year gap without a RB going in the first was because there wasn’t any RBs worthy. It’s still a valued position. It not for off the field concerns you would have seen Mixon and Cook join Fournette and McCaffery in the 1st round.

 

Not to mention that the success of late round RB pushes their value up, not down. Anytime there’s a RB with at least 4.40 or faster speed, who had elite production in college, went to at least a power 5 school, has no significant off the field issues, and can play on all 3 downs, he’s probably going in the 1st round. 

4 first rounders the last four years.  That's a pretty paltry number.

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2 hours ago, stitches said:

A bit overstated but overall I agree with the sentiment. Fournette has not been special this year. 

So the goal is for every 1st round RB to be Elliot now even with terrible QB play and an average O line? Hope we never take a back first you will all expect him to be a HoFer his rookie year 

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3 hours ago, BOTT said:

That would be great for a 5th round pick.

I don't like 1st round backs either but if fournette had the cowboys line had easily outplay Zeke 

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1 hour ago, Defjamz26 said:

Have him on the ignore list but I don’t think RB is devalued as a lot of people like to claim. Those elite guys are still getting drafted high in the 1st round. The only reason there was that 2 year gap without a RB going in the first was because there wasn’t any RBs worthy. It’s still a valued position. It not for off the field concerns you would have seen Mixon and Cook join Fournette and McCaffery in the 1st round.

 

Not to mention that the success of late round RB pushes their value up, not down. Anytime there’s a RB with at least 4.40 or faster speed, who had elite production in college, went to at least a power 5 school, has no significant off the field issues, and can play on all 3 downs, he’s probably going in the 1st round. 

Well if they don't run like AP their rookie year they are trash lol

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3 hours ago, Defjamz26 said:

The Hall of Fame is filled with 1st round RBs though. AP is going to make the HOF as another 1st round RB. With the exception of Terrell Davis, historically the best RBs are taken in the first round. You can throw at names like Le’Veon Bell and Jordan Howard all you want but the stats still show what the truth is. A couple recent success stories doesn’t change that.

 

How far in history are we going first of all.

 

Secondly I don't think we need to look at our RB search as "hall of fame or bust".

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5 hours ago, Colts_Fan12 said:

He's 8th in the league in rushing as a rookie that's with missing time. He's about to get a 1000 yards this season and is tied for 3 amongst running backs in TDs. I'm sure the Jags are very happy they took him he didn't come into the league with the best o line like Elliott either.

TJ Yeldon is averaging 5.5 yards per carry with 248 yards on 45 attempts. If he had 249 rush attempts I'm sure he would have 1000 yards too. So Why is fournette so special if his backup can do just as well if not better than him?

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2 hours ago, Colts_Fan12 said:

I don't like 1st round backs either but if fournette had the cowboys line had easily outplay Zeke 

Not sure about that.  The times I have seen fournette play, admitally not much,  I havnt been overly impressed.

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4 hours ago, Reidm said:

TJ Yeldon is averaging 5.5 yards per carry with 248 yards on 45 attempts. If he had 249 rush attempts I'm sure he would have 1000 yards too. So Why is fournette so special if his backup can do just as well if not better than him?

 

This type of math always makes me laugh. 

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6 hours ago, wig said:

 

This type of math always makes me laugh. 

Ok? Doesn't change the fact that fournette has the 7 most rushing attempts in the league. Of course he's gonna have big numbers. Heck even frank gore is close to 1000 yards behind our terrible line. None of Fournettes stats impress me

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15 hours ago, Defjamz26 said:

Have him on the ignore list but I don’t think RB is devalued as a lot of people like to claim. Those elite guys are still getting drafted high in the 1st round. The only reason there was that 2 year gap without a RB going in the first was because there wasn’t any RBs worthy. It’s still a valued position. It not for off the field concerns you would have seen Mixon and Cook join Fournette and McCaffery in the 1st round.

 

Not to mention that the success of late round RB pushes their value up, not down. Anytime there’s a RB with at least 4.40 or faster speed, who had elite production in college, went to at least a power 5 school, has no significant off the field issues, and can play on all 3 downs, he’s probably going in the 1st round. 

 

Wait!    What?!?     Huh?!?

 

How do you figure?      How does the success of late round RBs make the value of better RB's go UP and NOT down?!?       That makes no sense and flies in the face of every argument NFL types make.

 

If you can get a mid to late rounder giving you roughly the same value as a 1st or 2nd rounder does,   then that drives the value of top RB's down,  and not up.

 

And the follow-up line is also nonsense.     Why?     Because there's almost no one who fits that description.    There are so few RB's who go in the first round I don't know why you'd make this claim?      Once you start listing actual names,  you'll see how few candidates that fit your description.     

 

I'm sorry.....    but this is a head-scratching post...

 

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6 hours ago, NewColtsFan said:

 

Wait!    What?!?     Huh?!?

 

How do you figure?      How does the success of late round RBs make the value of better RB's go UP and NOT down?!?       That makes no sense and flies in the face of every argument NFL types make.

 

If you can get a mid to late rounder giving you roughly the same value as a 1st or 2nd rounder does,   then that drives the value of top RB's down,  and not up.

 

And the follow-up line is also nonsense.     Why?     Because there's almost no one who fits that description.    There are so few RB's who go in the first round I don't know why you'd make this claim?      Once you start listing actual names,  you'll see how few candidates that fit your description.     

 

I'm sorry.....    but this is a head-scratching post...

 

Every time a later round RB comes in and balls out, it’s often because of underrating prospects. I think that pushes their value up because sometimes those guys are probably first rounders like Le’Veon Bell and Jordan Howard. Its not a guarantee that a guy you take in the 2nd or later is going to be a star. When a Bell happens, scouts will not want to miss on him again. But he’s an anomaly. Was heavier than he needed to be and only ran a 4.6. If he had gone into that combine at 215 he probably runs a 4.4 and goes in the first round. I’ll admit this is more of a personal theory than truth though.

 

And that line is not ridiculous. About 1-2 RBs go in the first round every year. When you look at the RBs that go in the 1st, they fit that Bill. Elliot? Went to Ohio State, elite production in college, ran a 4.44 IIRC, can play on all 3 downs and had no off the field issues (the domestic violence issues that the police actually found him not-guilty of didn’t surface until he got to the NFL). Only thing is I misspoke when I said 4.40 or faster. I meant anything sub 4.50.

 

Another example? McCaffery. Ran a 4.48, elite college production that made him a Heisman finalist, went to Stanford, can play on all 3 downs, no off the field issues.

 

Todd Gurley. Elite college production, Went to Georgia, was injured for combine but most scouts knew from he was a 4.4-4.3 runner because he ran the 110 m hurdles in 2011 in the World Junior Championship. Can play on all 3 downs and no off the field issues.

 

There’s more but those rules pretty much hold for first round RBs. Will every good RB fit that criteria? No. There’s always exceptions to the rules. But those are anomaly’s. You can’t base drafting strategy on anomaly’s. Like you said, there are few RBs who go in the 1st. But 2 things to that point:

1. The ones who do fit that criteria 

2. RB is a position where you generally only need 1 good one. It’s not a position like OL where multiple teams will draft OL in the first each year. It’s like QB. There’s only 1 starter and he’s the franchise. Most teams don’t need to draft a RB often, thus not many of them go in the first. 

 

 

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