Remember when people used to say this?

[RockThatBlue]

 

 

Troy Brown: Andrew Luck is no better than Andy Dalton

 

https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/troy-brown-andrew-luck-is-no-better-than-andy-dalton/

[Coltsfan1953]

The article said that Andrew was only 4 and 5 against teams with good records but don't most QB's have worst records against the better teams? it only makes sense to me. 

[gacoop1]

Sad to be compared w/Dalton. Luck should request a trade, can't win in Indy - Pagano won't let him.

[buccolts]

26 minutes ago, gacoop1 said:

Sad to be compared w/Dalton. Luck should request a trade, can't win in Indy - Pagano won't let him.

You don't happen to know Mike Greenberg by any chance, do you?

[Jason_]

54 minutes ago, gacoop1 said:

Sad to be compared w/Dalton. Luck should request a trade, can't win in Indy - Pagano won't let him.

 

Irsay would, rightfully, laugh in his face.

 

Luck: "Hey Jim.  I want to be traded.  I simply don't feel like I can win here."
Irsay: LOLOLOLOLOLO.  "Hey Andrew, no one held a gun to your head forcing you to sign that 6 year extensions."

Luck: "But...I got hurted?"
Irsay: "Well that sucks but that's football.  I'm not eating over $40 million in dead cap space because you're a pansy.  Suck it up."

 

 

Irsay would probably soften up the delivery a little, but that would be the basic message.

[Valpo2004]

1 hour ago, Coltsfan1953 said:

The article said that Andrew was only 4 and 5 against teams with good records but don't most QB's have worst records against the better teams? it only makes sense to me. 

 

That was commentary on the 2014 season.  It's one of those thing that you just randomly say to make it sound bad but it's not actually bad in reality.

 

Think about it.  That year the Colts where 11-5.  That means that he lost all 5 of his games to teams that ended up with at least 6 wins.  So he wasn't dropping any games to bad teams.  He was also 4-5 so that also means that he won just short of half of his games against these decent teams.

 

I'm guessing most 11-5 teams don't have winning records against teams with 6 or more wins.

 

Furthermore this is a problem when you evaluate quarterbacks based on wins.  It leaves out the crucial context.  The Bengals have always had a strong running game and usually a strong defense.  You can look at the stats and see that.  The Colts had neither of those things since Luck got there.  (Although the defense was decent the year they went to the AFC championship game.)  

 

While QB is the most important position, it's intellectually lazy to evaluate quarterbacks based on wins.  There are still 10 other starters on offense, 11 starters on defense, special teams and other players who rotate into the game based on situation. 

 

But the problem is there are a lot of intellectually lazy people out there who insist that Trent Dilpher is a better quarterback then Dan Marino ever was because Dilpher won a championship.  (I'm not joking I've seen that argument made.)

[Mister P]

Maybe he is.  Career stats:

 

G	Att	Comp	Pct	Att/G	Yds	Avg	Yds/G	TD	TD%	Int	Int%	Lng	20+	40+	Sck	SckY	Rate
95	3,126	1,956	62.6	32.9	22,608	7.2	238	142	4.5	85	2.7	86	284	69	189	1,114	88.2
70	2,651	1,570	59.2	37.9	19,078	7.2	272.5	132	5	68	2.6	87	264	46	156	990	87.3

[Clem-Dog]

5 minutes ago, Valpo2004 said:

But the problem is there are a lot of intellectually lazy people out there who insist that Trent Dilpher is a better quarterback then Dan Marino ever was because Dilpher won a championship.  (I'm not joking I've seen that argument made.)

 

This is actually a better argument to use if you are trying to convince others that championships are not the most important criteria when determining greatness.

[Valpo2004]

10 minutes ago, Clem-Dog said:

 

This is actually a better argument to use if you are trying to convince others that championships are not the most important criteria when determining greatness.

 

I have attempted to use that argument only to have people refute it by saying that they do indeed believe that Trent Dilpher is a better QB then Dan Marino.  

 

It's crazy but there are some people who honestly believe that number of championships is the only stat one should pay attention to in order to evaluate how good a QB is.  And they take that belief to it's logical conclusion.   

[SteelCityColt]

17 minutes ago, Mister P said:

Maybe he is.  Career stats:

 

G	Att	Comp	Pct	Att/G	Yds	Avg	Yds/G	TD	TD%	Int	Int%	Lng	20+	40+	Sck	SckY	Rate
95	3,126	1,956	62.6	32.9	22,608	7.2	238	142	4.5	85	2.7	86	284	69	189	1,114	88.2
70	2,651	1,570	59.2	37.9	19,078	7.2	272.5	132	5	68	2.6	87	264	46	156	990	87.3

 

Ahh the dangers of presenting stats without context...

[Clem-Dog]

1 minute ago, Valpo2004 said:

 

I have attempted to use that argument only to have people refute it by saying that they do indeed believe that Trent Dilpher is a better QB then Dan Marino.  

 

It's crazy but there are some people who honestly believe that number of championships is the only stat one should pay attention to in order to evaluate how good a QB is.  And they take that belief to it's logical conclusion.   

 

I hear you but at the same time these very people never mention players like Troy Aikman, Ben Roethlisberger and Eli Manning as all time greats for a reason.  They just can't pick and choose when and when not to apply Super Bowl victories as part of the equation.

[Jason_]

Well, I do think that Dalton is a better QB than many around here give him credit for.  That being said, he doesn't have the same talent level as Luck and I don't think there could be any question about that.  Dalton is playing horribly so far this year, though I definitely give you that.

[jameszeigler834]

1 hour ago, RockThatBlue said:

 

 

Troy Brown: Andrew Luck is no better than Andy Dalton

 

https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/troy-brown-andrew-luck-is-no-better-than-andy-dalton/

Troy Brown is a * anyways.

[RockThatBlue]

6 minutes ago, J@son said:

Well, I do think that Dalton is a better QB than many around here give him credit for.  That being said, he doesn't have the same talent level as Luck and I don't think there could be any question about that.  Dalton is playing horribly so far this year, though I definitely give you that.

He seemed to fall off a bit since the 2014 season. I remember him even getting some MVP hype. Not sure what happened, but he ain't been the same since.

[The Fish]

Andy Dalton can't win a playoff game with a loaded roster. Luck carried his squad to a 3-3 record in the playoffs. 

It's night and day, but whatever..

[Jason_]

6 minutes ago, RockThatBlue said:

He seemed to fall off a bit since the 2014 season. I remember him even getting some MVP hype. Not sure what happened, but he ain't been the same since.

.

I think it may have been a bit later than that when he started to drop off...could definitely be wrong..but seems like it happened when Hue Jackson left for cleveland.

[Jason_]

2 minutes ago, The Fish said:

Andy Dalton can't win a playoff game with a loaded roster. Luck carried his squad to a 3-3 record in the playoffs. 

It's night and day, but whatever..

 

just being honest but I think that may have as much, if not more to do with coaching than Dalton specifically.  Dalton is not Luck, there's no denying that.  I think Dalton is the kind of QB who can be decent on his own, but with an actual quality OC and scheme built around his strengths he can be a very good one. the biggest difference between he and Luck is that Luck can still be a very good QB even without the quality OC..but he can be an elite QB with quality coaching.

[RockThatBlue]

1 minute ago, J@son said:

.

I think it may have been a bit later than that when he started to drop off...could definitely be wrong..but seems like it happened when Hue Jackson left for cleveland.

Hue leaving probably is a big reason for it, no doubt. 

[aaron11]

52 minutes ago, Mister P said:

Maybe he is.  Career stats:

 

G	Att	Comp	Pct	Att/G	Yds	Avg	Yds/G	TD	TD%	Int	Int%	Lng	20+	40+	Sck	SckY	Rate
95	3,126	1,956	62.6	32.9	22,608	7.2	238	142	4.5	85	2.7	86	284	69	189	1,114	88.2
70	2,651	1,570	59.2	37.9	19,078	7.2	272.5	132	5	68	2.6	87	264	46	156	990	87.3

what are we supposed to make of this?

 

post brady's stats over his first 70 games too

[The Fish]

22 minutes ago, J@son said:

 

just being honest but I think that may have as much, if not more to do with coaching than Dalton specifically.  Dalton is not Luck, there's no denying that.  I think Dalton is the kind of QB who can be decent on his own, but with an actual quality OC and scheme built around his strengths he can be a very good one. the biggest difference between he and Luck is that Luck can still be a very good QB even without the quality OC..but he can be an elite QB with quality coaching.

The coaching intangible between the two is a wash in my estimation..

My personal feelings on Dalton are that he's the beneficiary of having AJ Green's other worldly Randy Moss-esq ability to come down with the ball. If teams can double AJ, they literally can't score a TD..

 

[Defjamz26]

Came in expecting "The Colts beat themselves". I'm disappointed lol

[Indy500]

1 hour ago, J@son said:

Well, I do think that Dalton is a better QB than many around here give him credit for.  That being said, he doesn't have the same talent level as Luck and I don't think there could be any question about that.  Dalton is playing horribly so far this year, though I definitely give you that.

 

It looked to me that the Bengals have just as bad an oline as the Colts, I thought the Texans D did a good job cover the WRs downfield, and the pocket was collapsing regularly. 

 

In fact there seem to be a few similarities between the Bengals and Colts other than oline,  poor coaching, poor play calling, I think,Luck is better than Dalton but both are held back.

[lollygagger8]

Troy Brown? Never heard of her. 

[SteelCityColt]

1 hour ago, aaron11 said:

what are we supposed to make of this?

 

post brady's stats over his first 70 games too

 

Rk		From	To	Lg	Tm	G	W	L	T	W-L%	Cmp	Att	Cmp%	Yds	TD	Int	Rate	Sk	Yds	Y/A	AY/A
1	Tom Brady	2000	2005	NFL	NWE	70	51	19	0	0.729	1386	2246	61.71	15746	105	56	87.9	137	850	7.01	6.82

 

[Jason_]

1 hour ago, The Fish said:

The coaching intangible between the two is a wash in my estimation..

My personal feelings on Dalton are that he's the beneficiary of having AJ Green's other worldly Randy Moss-esq ability to come down with the ball. If teams can double AJ, they literally can't score a TD..

 

 

I agree, but that was my point.  Luck has more raw talent and can still be a good QB even with questionable or even outright bad coaching.  Dalton does not.  Dalton needs quality coaching around him to be successful, and if he has that I think he can be.  But he's never going to be at Luck's level. 

[Myles]

Marvin Lewis is 0-7 in the playoffs in 14 years as Cincy head coach.     He seems to be the common denominator.

[Mister P]

It was requested that I post Brady's stats.  Why post Brady's stats.  He wasn't a topic of this thread.  Data in context....  lol!

[SteelCityColt]

2 minutes ago, Mister P said:

It was requested that I post Brady's stats.  Why post Brady's stats.  He wasn't a topic of this thread.  Data in context....  lol!

 

Well to provide some context.... even just on the raw numbers you posted we can see Luck is being asked to do more (more passing attempts on average), has produced more (higher TD%), turned the ball over at the same rate (INT%) (funny as people level the moniker turnover machine at Luck but not Dalton), all while playing behind a far worse o-line (higher average sacks per game). His completion percentage is a smidge lower, but we can see he's also being asked to throw the ball further down the field.

 

Now to provide even more context, the reason Luck is perceived to have to do more and carry this team has been the lack of defense and running game... so let's compare:

 

Colts D since 2012 (all passing and rushing numbers are the Opponents numbers)

 

									Points				Tot Yds & TO								Passing									Rushing				Opp First Downs
Rk	Tm	From	To	G	W	L	T	W-L%	PF	PA	PD	PC	Tot	Ply	Y/P	DPly	DY/P	TO	ToP	Time	Cmp	Att	Cmp%	Yds	TD	Int	Sk	Yds	Rate	Att	Yds	Y/A	TD	1stDOpp	Rush	Pass	Pen
1	IND	2012	2017	81	49	32	0	0.605	1959	1938	21	3897	28970	5375	5.3898	5188	5.7342	127	41:19:25	04:16:45	1732	2811	61.6	19792	128	64	184	1170	90.2	2193	9957	4.54	70	1656

 

Not pretty reading , we on average give up more yards per play on D then we produce on O, have allowed a 90.2 passer rating, while only only getting to the opposition QB 2.2 times a game. All while giving up a very nice 4.54 yards against us on the ground. You can also see we give up on average 23.9 points a game. That's putting your QB in a position that he's going to have to go out and win games not just manage them.

 

Let's look at Cincy since Dalton was drafted (again all numbers for passing and rushing are Opponents):

					Points				Tot Yds & TO								Passing									Rushing				Opp First Downs
Rk	Tm	From	To	G	W	L	T	W-L%	PF	PA	PD	PC	Tot	Ply	Y/P	DPly	DY/P	TO	ToP	Time	Cmp	Att	Cmp%	Yds	TD	Int	Sk	Yds	Rate	Att	Yds	Y/A	TD	1stDOpp	Rush	Pass	Pen
1	CIN	2011	2017	98	58	38	2	0.602	2283	1919	364	4202	33855	6320	5.3568	6344	5.1089	144	50:24:22	05:06:22	2205	3601	61.2	22002	118	103	238	1552	79.4	2505	10409	4.16	71	1875	553	1137	185

 

We can see the numbers are better across the board, giving up a lower passer rating (79.4), sacking the oppo QB more (thought not much more surprisingly), but have  much healthier Y/A against in passing (6.01 vs the Colts 7.04) and also in rushing. Crucially too they're only giving up 19.5 points a game on average. Overall they're putting their QB in a position where he doesn't have to do as much to succeed. 

 

The other criticism that's been leveled is we've never given Luck a run game...

									Rushing
Rk	Tm	From	To	G	W	L	T	W-L%	Att	Yds	Y/A	TD
1	IND	2012	2017	81	49	32	0	0.605	2093	8167	3.90	55

 

A pretty slim 3.9 Y/A with less than a TD per game on average.

 

While in Cinci:

					Rushing
Rk	Tm	From	To	G	W	L	T	W-L%	Att	Yds	Y/A	TD
1	CIN	2011	2017	98	58	38	2	0.602	2817	11158	3.96	89

 

Surprisingly again not that much better, although they are much better at scoring with the rushing game at least. 

 

That is providing some context.

 

To be clear I think Dalton is a better QB than most make him out to be, certainly in the 10-16 range so better than average. He's fallen off a bit lately, but then I think the Bengals as a whole have slipped. What I will say though is, that while stats are all very nice, they can't beat actually watching the games. If anyone was to watch film on Luck and Dalton and say Dalton is the more "talented" QB I'd question that pretty darn strongly. 

[SteelCityColt]

3 hours ago, J@son said:

 

I agree, but that was my point.  Luck has more raw talent and can still be a good QB even with questionable or even outright bad coaching.  Dalton does not.  Dalton needs quality coaching around him to be successful, and if he has that I think he can be.  But he's never going to be at Luck's level. 

 

The more succinct way of saying it! 

[AZColt11]

i'll sum up my feelings this way:  If you gave me the option, all things being equal, of a healthy Luck or Dalton right now, it would take me a nanosecond to give you my answer:  Luck.

[RockThatBlue]

4 hours ago, SteelCityColt said:

 

Well to provide some context.... even just on the raw numbers you posted we can see Luck is being asked to do more (more passing attempts on average), has produced more (higher TD%), turned the ball over at the same rate (INT%) (funny as people level the moniker turnover machine at Luck but not Dalton), all while playing behind a far worse o-line (higher average sacks per game). His completion percentage is a smidge lower, but we can see he's also being asked to throw the ball further down the field.

 

Now to provide even more context, the reason Luck is perceived to have to do more and carry this team has been the lack of defense and running game... so let's compare:

 

Colts D since 2012 (all passing and rushing numbers are the Opponents numbers)

 

									Points				Tot Yds & TO								Passing									Rushing				Opp First Downs
Rk	Tm	From	To	G	W	L	T	W-L%	PF	PA	PD	PC	Tot	Ply	Y/P	DPly	DY/P	TO	ToP	Time	Cmp	Att	Cmp%	Yds	TD	Int	Sk	Yds	Rate	Att	Yds	Y/A	TD	1stDOpp	Rush	Pass	Pen
1	IND	2012	2017	81	49	32	0	0.605	1959	1938	21	3897	28970	5375	5.3898	5188	5.7342	127	41:19:25	04:16:45	1732	2811	61.6	19792	128	64	184	1170	90.2	2193	9957	4.54	70	1656

 

Not pretty reading , we on average give up more yards per play on D then we produce on O, have allowed a 90.2 passer rating, while only only getting to the opposition QB 2.2 times a game. All while giving up a very nice 4.54 yards against us on the ground. You can also see we give up on average 23.9 points a game. That's putting your QB in a position that he's going to have to go out and win games not just manage them.

 

Let's look at Cincy since Dalton was drafted (again all numbers for passing and rushing are Opponents):

					Points				Tot Yds & TO								Passing									Rushing				Opp First Downs
Rk	Tm	From	To	G	W	L	T	W-L%	PF	PA	PD	PC	Tot	Ply	Y/P	DPly	DY/P	TO	ToP	Time	Cmp	Att	Cmp%	Yds	TD	Int	Sk	Yds	Rate	Att	Yds	Y/A	TD	1stDOpp	Rush	Pass	Pen
1	CIN	2011	2017	98	58	38	2	0.602	2283	1919	364	4202	33855	6320	5.3568	6344	5.1089	144	50:24:22	05:06:22	2205	3601	61.2	22002	118	103	238	1552	79.4	2505	10409	4.16	71	1875	553	1137	185

 

We can see the numbers are better across the board, giving up a lower passer rating (79.4), sacking the oppo QB more (thought not much more surprisingly), but have  much healthier Y/A against in passing (6.01 vs the Colts 7.04) and also in rushing. Crucially too they're only giving up 19.5 points a game on average. Overall they're putting their QB in a position where he doesn't have to do as much to succeed. 

 

The other criticism that's been leveled is we've never given Luck a run game...

									Rushing
Rk	Tm	From	To	G	W	L	T	W-L%	Att	Yds	Y/A	TD
1	IND	2012	2017	81	49	32	0	0.605	2093	8167	3.90	55

 

A pretty slim 3.9 Y/A with less than a TD per game on average.

 

While in Cinci:

					Rushing
Rk	Tm	From	To	G	W	L	T	W-L%	Att	Yds	Y/A	TD
1	CIN	2011	2017	98	58	38	2	0.602	2817	11158	3.96	89

 

Surprisingly again not that much better, although they are much better at scoring with the rushing game at least. 

 

That is providing some context.

 

To be clear I think Dalton is a better QB than most make him out to be, certainly in the 10-16 range so better than average. He's fallen off a bit lately, but then I think the Bengals as a whole have slipped. What I will say though is, that while stats are all very nice, they can't beat actually watching the games. If anyone was to watch film on Luck and Dalton and say Dalton is the more "talented" QB I'd question that pretty darn strongly. 

Yup. Stats don't always tell the entire story.

[Mister P]

SteeleCityColt needs to get a life. Or a job....  LOL!!!!

[NorthernBlue]

I always find it funny when people complain that a player or team is like average against better competition.

 

If a guy is like 2-9 against teams above .500 you might have an argument, but like if a dude is around .500 against above average teams, doesn't that make sense? I mean if you get two 10-6 teams to play each other 4 times, it's not unreasonable to think each team would win twice.

 

And who else would you lose to? Teams that have 10 or 11 wins aren't losing to the Jets and Browns of the league. They'd obviously take L's against better competition. The Cowboys only went 2-2 against teams with more than 10 wins last year. Atlanta was 1-2, and so on.

[SteelCityColt]

7 hours ago, Mister P said:

SteeleCityColt needs to get a life. Or a job....  LOL!!!!