Statistical Studies On Age/performance Of Nfl Qbs

[betheafan41]

OK, we get it. You hate Peyton Manning and want him run out for some rookie but don't want to come right out and say it.

I dont hate peyton manning but i dont thnk the colts need to pay that kind of money for aguy who has had 3 neck surgeries no strength in his arm and is going to be 36 years old. sorry but that would hurt the team. and you guys who think they should keep manning will be the first ones to complain when or if manning does not produce and give the colts a shot at the playoffs. and then were stuck with curtis painter for the next 10 to 12 years waiting for the next peyton manning to hit the draft because the colts passed on andrew luck. take your emotions away from the situation and start looking at the buisness aspect of it all. yeah no one wants to lose the one QB who has been with the team his whole career and has had so much success but the time is now to get rid of him while they still can with out losing awhole lot of money, money they can use to pick up defensive options like a DT or LB maybe even a DB someone like tracy porter and laron landry

[04DarkShadowGT]

I dont hate peyton manning but i dont thnk the colts need to pay that kind of money for aguy who has had 3 neck surgeries no strength in his arm and is going to be 36 years old. sorry but that would hurt the team. and you guys who think they should keep manning will be the first ones to complain when or if manning does not produce and give the colts a shot at the playoffs. and then were stuck with curtis painter for the next 10 to 12 years waiting for the next peyton manning to hit the draft because the colts passed on andrew luck. take your emotions away from the situation and start looking at the buisness aspect of it all. yeah no one wants to lose the one QB who has been with the team his whole career and has had so much success but the time is now to get rid of him while they still can with out losing awhole lot of money, money they can use to pick up defensive options like a DT or LB maybe even a DB someone like tracy porter and laron landry

Next year Painter is going to be the best QB the CFL has ever seen.

[JWF]

Every team now has adopted the use of statistics..so every team is winning with the use of statisctics. The A's just were the first to use it extensively due to their inability to compete with larger market teams.

This. The Boston Redsox, who hadnt won a championship in 80+ years being a prime example. They hired the guy who wrote the original statistical premise for moneyball for crying out loud.

[Coffeedrinker]

Well the first study is flawed in several ways: One it looks at QB rating, QB rating is not an effective gauge of QBs. Two it compares QBs of the same year, for it to work they would need to look at the same QB at age 22, 31 and past 36. Three there are too many other variables that have an affect on QBs than just their age; for example the people around them, the coaches, the coaches philosophies, ability to adapt when defenses are targeted to stop the QB.

The second one, I will admit, I like Advanced NFL Stats, they do good work. And it shows, quite clearly, that it is better to have a 36 year QB than a rookie. According to the chart a QB needs 3 years in the league to be as productive as a 36 year QB. So, the ideal situation, would be for the Colts to keep Manning, draft his replacement who will take over in 2 or 3 years.

[BmoreColt]

Well the first study is flawed in several ways: One it looks at QB rating, QB rating is not an effective gauge of QBs. Two it compares QBs of the same year, for it to work they would need to look at the same QB at age 22, 31 and past 36. Three there are too many other variables that have an affect on QBs than just their age; for example the people around them, the coaches, the coaches philosophies, ability to adapt when defenses are targeted to stop the QB.

The second one, I will admit, I like Advanced NFL Stats, they do good work. And it shows, quite clearly, that it is better to have a 36 year QB than a rookie. According to the chart a QB needs 3 years in the league to be as productive as a 36 year QB. So, the ideal situation, would be for the Colts to keep Manning, draft his replacement who will take over in 2 or 3 years.

This is what we trade the pick believers have been saying for months now, STASTICALLY speaking of course.

[Coffeedrinker]

This is what we trade the pick believers have been saying for months now, STASTICALLY speaking of course.

Months? I know. And I personally am all for trading the pick. I just don't like the trade most propose because I'm not sure Cleveland would wnnt to give up 2 first round picks.

The trade I like is with St. Louis (based on a rumor that Fisher wants Luck and is going to try and trade Bradford for a later 1st round pick). If the Colts trade the #1 and #34 picks to St. Louis in exchange for the #2, #33, #66 and #97 They could still get RGIII as the future QB pick up a top 5 DT or CB in the 2nd round and then have back to back picks in the 3rd and 4th rounds to really work on transforming the team with player Pagano wants.

[manningstheman]

Nope, I've seen people say it was a real paper. Completely ridiculous if you ask me.

If you think that is a real post then I have a bridge to sell you in Idaho.

[Jaric]

I bet you he backs this completely. Does anyone know when this paper was published?

I don't even have words for that. It is just mind blowing.

It's also clearly photoshopped

[BmoreColt]

Months? I know. And I personally am all for trading the pick. I just don't like the trade most propose because I'm not sure Cleveland would wnnt to give up 2 first round picks.

The trade I like is with St. Louis (based on a rumor that Fisher wants Luck and is going to try and trade Bradford for a later 1st round pick). If the Colts trade the #1 and #34 picks to St. Louis in exchange for the #2, #33, #66 and #97 They could still get RGIII as the future QB pick up a top 5 DT or CB in the 2nd round and then have back to back picks in the 3rd and 4th rounds to really work on transforming the team with player Pagano wants.

For me I have verbally expressed a trade down and a non qb selection since at least end of November, I would call that months... Where did u see that rumor? I wouldn't mind that trade..But I would rather trade down again and not select a qb...

[Jaric]

Good grief. Thats gotta be a photoshop. Tell me that isnt the real paper.

Reminds me of what alot of Pats fans are doing to Brady right now. Blaming him for everything.

Of course it's not real. Do you really think the Indianapolis Star is going to run a headline calling Peyton that?

[Jaric]

Nope, I've seen people say it was a real paper. Completely ridiculous if you ask me.

It's not real.

[Coffeedrinker]

For me I have verbally expressed a trade down and a non qb selection since at least end of November, I would call that months... Where did u see that rumor? I wouldn't mind that trade..But I would rather trade down again and not select a qb...

I meant to put an emoticon after the months to show I was just joking with that statement, sorry about that.

I think a first round QB is needed. People say, look at the Patriots they did it with a 6th round qb, but the biggest reason Brady was not a top 50 pick is because Coach Carr >>>ed him over his senior year at Michigan.

And lastly, I'm not saying your idea is wrong, just different from my line of thinking.

[BmoreColt]

I meant to put an emoticon after the months to show I was just joking with that statement, sorry about that.

I think a first round QB is needed. People say, look at the Patriots they did it with a 6th round qb, but the biggest reason Brady was not a top 50 pick is because Coach Carr >>>ed him over his senior year at Michigan.

And lastly, I'm not saying your idea is wrong, just different from my line of thinking.

I think a rg3 is a development type qb, so is osweiler and foles who can be selected between rounds two and three. They are 3 and 5 as far as ranked prospects, but outside of luck, most aren't nfl ready and would be a project, where kalil or Claiborne would be day 1 starters.

[Coffeedrinker]

I think a rg3 is a development type qb, so is osweiler and foles who can be selected between rounds two and three. They are 3 and 5 as far as ranked prospects, but outside of luck, most aren't nfl ready and would be a project, where kalil or Claiborne would be day 1 starters.

rg3 is a development type QB which is a) fine since my scenario has Manning as the Colts QB and B) he is capable of starting and winning some games as a rook which I think the Colts need as a back-up. I like Osweiller as the #3 QB in the draft but I'd be a lot more leary of him in a game than rg3.

Kalil is not needed as the Colts just spent a high draft pick on a LT, who proved to be the best tackle in the draft last year. Clairborne could possibly be a good CB but Pagano has shown he doesn't need high drafted CBs. Plus as good as Clairborne is, I personally, don't think he is top 5 good and he won't be there at 24.

[OldSchoolColt]

Thanks for the stats. Of course stats are not acurate in every case, but they do give a general idea to base a decision on. Fans who say Peyton has 4 more years are using undocumented stats that about how many successfull QBs there have been at the age of 40. Why do we not think he would be the same old Peyton at the age of 65??? STATS. By the way, if his nerve damage prevents him from throwing a very accurate deep ball, he won't be a QB anywhere. I hope he comes back healthy with a performance based contract and low money and plays well for years, but if I am looking at pay 10's of millions of dollars because of a multi-year contract to a 36 year old QB with nerve damage, you know darn well that I would be looking at stats on the subject.

[BmoreColt]

rg3 is a development type QB which is a) fine since my scenario has Manning as the Colts QB and B) he is capable of starting and winning some games as a rook which I think the Colts need as a back-up. I like Osweiller as the #3 QB in the draft but I'd be a lot more leary of him in a game than rg3.

Kalil is not needed as the Colts just spent a high draft pick on a LT, who proved to be the best tackle in the draft last year. Clairborne could possibly be a good CB but Pagano has shown he doesn't need high drafted CBs. Plus as good as Clairborne is, I personally, don't think he is top 5 good and he won't be there at 24.

Well yeah manning as qb only needs a prospect qb behind him, I only hope RG3 is after a trade down and not at #1. Where did you hear that luck to rams rumor?

[Coffeedrinker]

Well yeah manning as qb only needs a prospect qb behind him, I only hope RG3 is after a trade down and not at #1. Where did you hear that luck to rams rumor?

First it's not a Luck to Rams rumor, it's just a rumor that Fisher would really like to have Luck and it's from a friend who has some ties to the Rams organization.

[Portage Coltfans]

I'm all about Manning staying and trading luck, but i'm sure I would grow to like luck.

RGIII, please No. I've never been a fan of that style of QB. In fact, has any scrambling QB or system (houston) won a Superbowl?

[DILLIGAFER]

Of course it's not real. Do you really think the Indianapolis Star is going to run a headline calling Peyton that?

Hey, i wouldnt put it past any paper to write bogus material.

[Jaric]

I'm all about Manning staying and trading luck, but i'm sure I would grow to like luck.

RGIII, please No. I've never been a fan of that style of QB. In fact, has any scrambling QB or system (houston) won a Superbowl?

Steve Young won a SB in 96.

[Fx Stryker]

Tell me you don't seriously believe the Star published that.

If you think that is a real post then I have a bridge to sell you in Idaho.

It's not real.

I don't live in Indiana so i wouldn't know. I would have to trust those who do. The one guy said he did and it was legit, but youse are saying it's not. So I'll go with youse.

Is that general people or athletes who get pummeled every game?

If your statistic is valid, you would have a lot more running backs playing until they are 40. Seems to me most are a shell of themselves by early 30s at the latest.

But if you are seriously implying your body is as physically fit and able to regenerate and recover to the same rate at 40 than at 20-25 you are just flat out wrong.

I don't know. I just heard the news say your muscle do not deteriorate until your 40's. Can't tell you much more. That is all they said.

[ColtsLegacy]

I don't live in Indiana so i wouldn't know. I would have to trust those who do. The one guy said he did and it was legit, but youse are saying it's not. So I'll go with youse.

Come on, just open your mind a little bit. Do you really think a major paper would put "F'ing" and "arsehole" in it's headline? That paper would be destroyed for such an act, regardless of the subject.

[Fx Stryker]

Come on, just open your mind a little bit. Do you really think a major paper would put "F'ing" and "arsehole" in it's headline? That paper would be destroyed for such an act, regardless of the subject.

I have seen papers to that sense.

[presto123]

edit: well that didn't work.

try this

http://www.pro-footb.../M/MontJo01.htm

Thank you:)

[chrisfarley]

peyton has 2 good years left max!!! that's perfect for Luck to cut his teeth on just how much of a marvel Peyton is. He will learn a lot but there's only one peyton manning and luck may be a decent NFL qb BUT will never be up to Peyton's level. It's just not possible to process all those combination s of defenses so quickly in ones brain and then decipher it all in split-seconds

[JoKeR]

what about some relevant stats saying the opposite? like my post above, about how many young QB's fail.

How many young QBs, that were as highly touted and skilled as PM, Steve Young, or Johns Elway fail in the NFL?

[JoKeR]

peyton has 2 good years left max!!! that's perfect for Luck to cut his teeth on just how much of a marvel Peyton is. He will learn a lot but there's only one peyton manning and luck may be a decent NFL qb BUT will never be up to Peyton's level. It's just not possible to process all those combination s of defenses so quickly in ones brain and then decipher it all in split-seconds

I have a feeling that Peyton wants to play but also wants to retire on his own terms. I agree that he will only play 2-3 years.

[Superman]

All this just shows that we should draft neither Luck nor RGIII but get a stud QB who is between 26 and 29 years old. Any suggestions?

Gotta be honest: That's the best answer I've heard.

I would love it if Manning could come back and play at a high level, and ride off into the sunset in a few years, with Luck waiting to take over for him. But I think the best bet for the franchise would be to grab a highly rated quarterback in that age range. Unfortunately, that's virtually impossible for us at this point. Highly rated quarterbacks don't hit the free agent market (unless they're considered damaged goods, like Drew Brees, and even then, that was only after they'd drafted Rivers). And they require a king's ransom in a trade (see: Jay Cutler trade).

You could take a chance on someone like Matt Flynn (26), and hope he's half as good as he looked in Week 17. You could take a chance on a retread like Matt Leinart (under contract) or Alex Smith (free agent). I don't think any of those are options that are as good as drafting Luck.

[ColtsBlueFL]

name a disease or a situation and not everyone fits the mold.

I love how that new movie, Moneyball, is about statistics. and they haven't won jack......

Ooooohh, poor move. Yes, Billy Beane couldn't win the W.S. with the A's, and he declined the offer to GM the BoSox, but the Red Sox went ahead and used his model anyway. They hired sabemetrician Theo Epstein as GM and he in turn hired sabemetrics guru Bill James and promptly won the World Series in 2004 and 2007 using the same numbers formula pioneered by Billy Beane, which was truly pioneered by Bill James himself. Thus ending Bostons 86 years drought in winning the World Series.

[Superman]

Ooooohh, poor move. Yes, Billy Beane couldn't win the W.S. with the A's, and he declined the offer to GM the BoSox, but the Red Sox went ahead and used his model anyway. They hired sabemetrician Theo Epstein as GM and he in turn hired sabemetrics guru Bill James and promptly won the World Series in 2004 and 2007 using the same numbers formula pioneered by Billy Beane, which was truly pioneered by Bill James himself. Thus ending Bostons 86 years drought in winning the World Series.

Excellent point. I was talking about this with some baseball fans a few days ago, and they were saying "Yeah, but Oakland still hasn't won anything." Boston has won two since then, and other teams are embracing sabermetrics, more every year. It's not the only way, of course, but for a team with money constraints to have a chance every few years, they better get inventive.

[ColtsBlueFL]

Excellent point. I was talking about this with some baseball fans a few days ago, and they were saying "Yeah, but Oakland still hasn't won anything." Boston has won two since then, and other teams are embracing sabermetrics, more every year. It's not the only way, of course, but for a team with money constraints to have a chance every few years, they better get inventive.

Exactly. The Red sox embraced it and won (x2), and the Tampa Bay Rays embraced it and now compete with the Red Sox and Yankees for the pennant. Well done studies shows the likely hood of things, and there are exceptions. But they are fewer and farther between.

[shecolt]

A post and several references to that post have been removed from this thread.

When posting pics, please remember that forum rules also apply to the pics.

[Andy]

Well, I think a big problem of the decline is that these QBs have terrible O-lines. Dan Marino's O-line was getting bad in the late 90's, Favre's O-line was horrendous in his last year, Elway's O-line got old in the late 90's. I think with a good O-line it could extend a QB's career by a couple of years.

[mmcrazylikeafox]

People, who want to retain Peyton, believe that he will be ready and with a better roster could win another superbowl or more in the next 4 years. I'm not sure how you think this isn't a good scenerio?

People, who want luck, want to completely re-build. With this scenerio, not only will we have the 1st pick this year, but a top 3 next year and the next. This is going to be one bad team for multiple years.

Exactly! A very good point! If we keep PM and win a few more championship games and or SB's or don't, and then he starts to decline we can bench him for Luck or whoever. If we draft a QB and let PM go to FA we lose for a few years (statistically speaking) until the new QB reaches his peak performance which may or may not be as good or even nearly as good as PM's peak.

[LightninMax]

I really don't know what applies to whom, but since Tom Brady is turning 35 in august I can hope it applies to him!

[UndecidedFrog]

I really don't know what applies to whom, but since Tom Brady is turning 35 in august I can hope it applies to him!

Well. if the Pats decide to rebuild, I doubt they would choose to keep Brady as the foundation on which they rebuild. He is no spring chicken.

[MSColtsFan]

I really don't know what applies to whom, but since Tom Brady is turning 35 in august I can hope it applies to him!

There are already articles and stories about this very thing. The 7-7 playoff record since starting 10-0 or whatever he did, his TD to INT ratio in playoff games. The Pats and Brady are heading downward talk has started too.

[UndecidedFrog]

There are already articles and stories about this very thing. The 7-7 playoff record since starting 10-0 or whatever he did, his TD to INT ratio in playoff games. The Pats and Brady are heading downward talk has started too.

I think in the next few years you will see the Pats develop Mallet or another backup to the point he will be ready to take over after Brady's contract expires in 2014. What will be interesting is how Brady performs next season. Will it show the continuing decline, or will he get back on track?

[MSColtsFan]

I think in the next few years you will see the Pats develop Mallet or another backup to the point he will be ready to take over after Brady's contract expires in 2014. What will be interesting is how Brady performs next season. Will it show the continuing decline, or will he get back on track?

What will be interesting to me is how they use their two firsts and two second round picks in April. That D is young and needs pieces, but if they go WR and RB early....

He's 35, and you and I are on the same page when it comes to age and perfomance. People can overcome all manner of things, there are incredible performances and performers who buck trends and history, but by any measure 35, 36, 40... it's old for a NFL QB. Closer to done than starting a career for sure. The Pats are like the Colts in a lot of ways with personnel too. They let aging, or expensive players go, perhaps a year or two too early, but rarely when it's too late. I think they will handle Brady's departure differently though - but they will have had the advantage of seeing Favre and Manning and they will learn. But the Pats, maybe more than anyone in this generaiton, understand that it is about team and performance. They cut a guy on Super Bowl Sunday (granted, they resigned him this week...). And they did draft Mallet, and have drafted other QBs, while the Colts did not address the backup QB ever, really, in PMs time here. Then again, they lived through a year without their QB, and we hadn't, so they viewed that differently then the Colts.

[Flash7]

I think in the next few years you will see the Pats develop Mallet or another backup to the point he will be ready to take over after Brady's contract expires in 2014. What will be interesting is how Brady performs next season. Will it show the continuing decline, or will he get back on track?

It will be an interesting off season for the Pats. It's clear that they need a big play receiver and Chad Ochocinco wasn't the answer. Branch is getting old and that leaves Brady with his effective tight ends, and Wes Welker. They will definitely have to address the receiver position for Brady to have continued success. The lack of a play making receiver can partially be blamed for his performance.