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Statistical Studies On Age/performance Of Nfl Qbs

UndecidedFrog

By UndecidedFrog
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UndecidedFrog Walk On

UndecidedFrog

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http://sandcat.middl...ancoec/0718.pdf

http://www.advancedn...rbacks-age.html

The first study is a little dated that takes data from 1995 and 2005 cohorts and attempts to determine the average QB age at which they reach peak performance (for those of you who are interested in the answer without reading the study, it is 31).

The second study is very recent (August 2011), and measures the correlation of age with various measures of QB performance. The study also splits the QB populations into an interesting subgroup analysis of 10+ yr starters, which the study termed "franchise QBs". Here are some facts from the data they gathered on "franchise QBs":

1) They improve annually when they were young and only begin to decline in performance when they reach age 30.

2) They experience cumulative (not year to year but taking their entire performance history into account) performance increases rapidly until they plateau around the age of 26, the begin the cumulative decline at age 29.

The ages reported for similar comparisons are younger for the "non-franchise QBs"

I thought this was an interesting subject, since it was brought up in discussion about the average age of retirement of NFL QBs. Didn't find the answer about the average age of retirement, but it led me to an equally interesting question about the relationship between age and performance of NFL QBs.

Since the Colts are currently thinking about their various QB options with:

1) Peyton Manning (who will be 36 for this upcoming season), rehabbing from neck surgeries, and

2) RG3 (who will be 22 years old for this upcoming season), the Heisman Winner and a draft prospect in this years draft or

3) Andrew Luck (who will be 23 years old for this upcoming season), the highly rated prospect in this years draft thought to be the best prospect since Peyton Manning.

I thought the subject was particularly relevant.

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UndecidedFrog Walk On

UndecidedFrog

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people with ALS (Lou gherigs) usually die 3-5 years after diagnosis.

Stephen Hawking has been living way past that. (1st time ever mention on here?)

This makes your study irelevant due to the fact that everyone doesn't fit a standard mold in what studies say.

So you think one outlier in an unrelated statistic invalidates these statistical study powered to have statistical significance? That is a very interesting position to take.

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JWF Walk On

JWF

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people with ALS (Lou gherigs) usually die 3-5 years after diagnosis.

Stephen Hawking has been living way past that. (1st time ever mention on here?)

This makes your study irelevant due to the fact that everyone doesn't fit a standard mold in what studies say.

Huh?

See above.

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PolkHigh33 Walk On

PolkHigh33

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All this just shows that we should draft neither Luck nor RGIII but get a stud QB who is between 26 and 29 years old. Any suggestions?

Related to the Colts: They should draft Luck and give him some playing time every now and then so that he peaks in 3-4 years when Peyton retires :thmsup:

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coltsblue1844 Active Roster

coltsblue1844

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So you think one outlier in an unrelated statistic invalidates these statistical study powered to have statistical significance? That is a very interesting position to take.

well Peyton doesnt exactly fit into that study, because his skills havent really been in decline at all. He threw for 4,700 yards and 35 TD throwing to Blair White and Jacob Tamme... He truely is a one of a kind...that rare player who defies the normal statistics like age etc

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DILLIGAFER Walk On

DILLIGAFER

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OK, we get it. You hate Peyton Manning and want him run out for some rookie but don't want to come right out and say it.

+100

But he will say he is jusy showing statistics.. try this one.. ever considered will and drive into your statistics? Its amazing how those two attibutes come into play on recovery. Yet, no statsitcs on it.

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Portage Coltfans Walk On

Portage Coltfans

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So you think one outlier in an unrelated statistic invalidates these statistical study powered to have statistical significance? That is a very interesting position to take.

name a disease or a situation and not everyone fits the mold.

I love how that new movie, Moneyball, is about statistics. and they haven't won jack......

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gspdx Team Captain

gspdx

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The studies are valid and are based on historical data. But in any sample being studied (in this study the sample is NFL QBs) there are those that are outliers on the top and the bottom. To say this data is invalid is like saying that the average male in the U.S. dies at 75 is invalid. Many people live past that, but many die before that. (Just an example - not sure if that is the exact average).

Each individual is different. Peyton has done a pretty good job over the years of avoiding hits, but not all of them. To say he is one of a kind might be true, but statistically speaking age catches up with all of us. I hope he comes back and performs at a high level, but I wouldn't expect more than 2 years. To get 3 would be a gift.

I was also a big Joe Montana fan. I was living in Wichita, KS, when he went to KC. And although he was pretty good, you could see the magic wasn't quite there. There were times when he just looked like a guy who was trying to do something his body couldn't quite do. He made KC a better team, but it wasn't quite enough.

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Fx Stryker Walk On

Fx Stryker

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Posted · Hidden by shecolt, February 8, 2012 - inappropriate
Hidden by shecolt, February 8, 2012 - inappropriate

OK, we get it. You hate Peyton Manning and want him run out for some rookie but don't want to come right out and say it.

indianapolis.jpg

I bet you he backs this completely. Does anyone know when this paper was published?

I don't even have words for that. It is just mind blowing.

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gspdx Team Captain

gspdx

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what about some relevant stats saying the opposite? like my post above, about how many young QB's fail.

But all the QBs were young once. Some fail and some succeed. They will all grow old and statistically they will decline in performance in their 30s. So saying young QBs fail isn't the opposite as saying QBs will hit there peak in their late 20s and decline in their 30s.

It's pretty tough to go find a guy in his prime who is successful and then ride hime for 4-6 years. So the prevailing plan of most teams is to get a young guy and develop him.

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Portage Coltfans Walk On

Portage Coltfans

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But all the QBs were young once. Some fail and some succeed. They will all grow old and statistically they will decline in performance in their 30s. So saying young QBs fail isn't the opposite as saying QBs will hit there peak in their late 20s and decline in their 30s.

It's pretty tough to go find a guy in his prime who is successful and then ride hime for 4-6 years. So the prevailing plan of most teams is to get a young guy and develop him.

People, who want to retain Peyton, believe that he will be ready and with a better roster could win another superbowl or more in the next 4 years. I'm not sure how you think this isn't a good scenerio?

People, who want luck, want to completely re-build. With this scenerio, not only will we have the 1st pick this year, but a top 3 next year and the next. This is going to be one bad team for multiple years.

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gspdx Team Captain

gspdx

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People, who want to retain Peyton, believe that he will be ready and with a better roster could win another superbowl or more in the next 4 years. I'm not sure how you think this isn't a good scenerio? People, who want luck, want to completely re-build. With this scenerio, not only will we have the 1st pick this year, but a top 3 next year and the next. This is going to be one bad team for multiple years.

I do want Peyton to come back. I would love to see him pull and Elway and win the SB his last 2 years.

That doesn't negate the statistical relevance of the studies listed by the OP.

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braveheartcolt Practice Squad

braveheartcolt

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All this just shows that we should draft neither Luck nor RGIII but get a stud QB who is between 26 and 29 years old. Any suggestions?

Related to the Colts: They should draft Luck and give him some playing time every now and then so that he peaks in 3-4 years when Peyton retires :thmsup:

Curtis Painter will be 27 in June. Just sayin'...............

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DILLIGAFER Walk On

DILLIGAFER

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Posted · Hidden by shecolt, February 8, 2012 - inappropriate
Hidden by shecolt, February 8, 2012 - inappropriate

indianapolis.jpg

I bet you he backs this completely. Does anyone know when this paper was published?

I don't even have words for that. It is just mind blowing.

Good grief. Thats gotta be a photoshop. Tell me that isnt the real paper.

Reminds me of what alot of Pats fans are doing to Brady right now. Blaming him for everything.

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Portage Coltfans Walk On

Portage Coltfans

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I do want Peyton to come back. I would love to see him pull and Elway and win the SB his last 2 years.

That doesn't negate the statistical relevance of the studies listed by the OP.

Those studies include poor and average QB's. Do they have a study that includes x4 MVP's only? or at least studies of HOF QB's only? that would be more relevant to Manning.

The OP's studies include Chris Wienke, Gus Ferotte, Heath shuler, Todd collins, kordell stewart. and etc.

We need a study of warren moon, favre, marino, elway, kelly, and any HOF talent only.

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Flash7 Team Captain

Flash7

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name a disease or a situation and not everyone fits the mold.

I love how that new movie, Moneyball, is about statistics. and they haven't won jack......

Every team now has adopted the use of statistics..so every team is winning with the use of statisctics. The A's just were the first to use it extensively due to their inability to compete with larger market teams.
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Flash7 Team Captain

Flash7

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what about some relevant stats saying the opposite? like my post above, about how many young QB's fail.

Joe Montana, John elway, Dan Marino, all of these quarterbacks came out of college. They were all young quarterbacks at one time. If we have to move on from Manning, then his successor will be a college QB. Why not choose the best available college QB and not worry about him being a bust, rather, provide him all of the tools to become successful?

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UndecidedFrog Walk On

UndecidedFrog

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OK, we get it. You hate Peyton Manning and want him run out for some rookie but don't want to come right out and say it.

Wrong. I do not hate anyone. And if I did, it certainly would not be PM. I admire PM, and appreciate what he has done for the team over the years.

However, unlike some fans, I recognize the reality that QB stars do not play forever, and their performance declines with age.

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jskinnz Team Captain

jskinnz

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Those studies include poor and average QB's. Do they have a study that includes x4 MVP's only? or at least studies of HOF QB's only? that would be more relevant to Manning.

The OP's studies include Chris Wienke, Gus Ferotte, Heath shuler, Todd collins, kordell stewart. and etc.

We need a study of warren moon, favre, marino, elway, kelly, and any HOF talent only.

You are losing the battle in this thread. By a wide and epic margin.

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04DarkShadowGT Walk On

04DarkShadowGT

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What does 3 surgeries+36 years old+ nerve damage add up to?

One ex Colts QB it seems.

Your body doesn't actually start to decline until the age of 40.

Is that general people or athletes who get pummeled every game?

If your statistic is valid, you would have a lot more running backs playing until they are 40. Seems to me most are a shell of themselves by early 30s at the latest.

But if you are seriously implying your body is as physically fit and able to regenerate and recover to the same rate at 40 than at 20-25 you are just flat out wrong.

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JWF Walk On

JWF

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i'm not sure how you do not understand this?

I understand your point. I get youre saying there are people who always beat the odds or expectations.

The fact is the study shows that the odds are heavily against a QB being able to continue the type of play he and us fans are accustome to for much longer. Yes there are always outliers but theyre essentially flukes.

No one hates Manning here btw. There is a difference between optimism and borderline denial.

I promise you I personally want Manning back but the chance he isnt a Colt and the chance he will never be the same caliber QB are very real.

Btw I can tell you Marino heavily declined into his late 30's. Same with Moon, Kelly, etc.. I watched all of them growing up and I remember when Marino literally couldnt move 2 feet in the pocket near the end.

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