Grigson I Got Your Tell

[Coltsagent]

Just watch that press conference. The subsconscious mind has fascinating ways to display the conscious thoughts in body language. Grigson was fluid at times, even Galdiator like at the end. But when the one time Peyton was brought up it was a quick "no" folllowed by a literal "washing of the hands clean". Was his subsconscious clearly not comfortable? That grinding of the hands is his tell! He is hinding something. You dont get this job without knowing what you are doing with the face of THE NFL.

[ReMeDy]

It does seem like Grigson has already made up his mind on a few things, but doesn't want others to know. Frankly, if Grigson wants to trade Manning, I'd be in favor of it. Grigson has an eye for talent, and I'm confident he can do more with less. Plus, with his (and Irsay's) firing of Caldwell, the possibility of Reggie Wayne leaving, and Jeff Saturday possibly retiring (you never know), next season will be a tumultous season anyways, even with Manning, so may as well start clean.

[GoColts8818]

It does seem like Grigson has already made up his mind on a few things, but doesn't want others to know. Frankly, if Grigson wants to trade Manning, I'd be in favor of it. Grigson has an eye for talent, and I'm confident he can do more with less. Plus, with his (and Irsay's) firing of Caldwell, the possibility of Reggie Wayne leaving, and Jeff Saturday possibly retiring (you never know), next season will be a tumultous season anyways, even with Manning, so may as well start clean.

I don't think trading him is possiable based on the sallary cap hit. Releasing him could be another story. The Colts are sure dropping hints that they are looking into it. All the 98 refrences and new era stuff.

[Quantum88]

I don't think trading him is possiable based on the sallary cap hit. Releasing him could be another story. The Colts are sure dropping hints that they are looking into it. All the 98 refrences and new era stuff.

There is no way that the Colts pay Manning a $28 million bonus and then trade him. The cap hit would destroy the Colts ability to compete for the next 4 years. If Manning was willing to be traded, he could renegotiate the contract, but why should he? If he doesn't renegotiate, the Colts have to release him to have any future and he can sign where he wants.

Manning plays for us next year or he is released.

[BIGugly]

Manning plays for us next year or he is released.

And the question is.....

Drum roll here.....

Which?

And will we know come March 8th ?

And will he contract be redone?

I guess that's more than one question.

[TheNextGM]

It's actually pretty easy.. Manning is healthy = He's a Colt. Manning is not healthy = he's released.

Mind made up!

[ruksak]

I actually did not believe him when he said he hadn't discussed Manning at all with Irsay. Absolutely no way I believe that. However I understand not showing your hand to the media for no apparent reason.

[Quantum88]

This is not as easy a question to answer as everyone makes it to be. Manning is a human being with strong feelings of loyalty who expressed significant concern with Bill (not Chris) Polian being let go. He was just as close or more so to Caldwell and he is extremely smart. He knows he is nearing the end of his career and only has one ring and would seriously question being able to get another one as part of a "rebuilding" process. If he is healthy and the Colts pay him the $28 million, they will have to go into a total rebuilding because of the cap damage that bonus does to the team when combined with the existing cap problems we have. That makes the rebuild process dependent on draft choices, not expensive free agents that eveyone thinks we will chase because of Grigson's involvement with the Eagles.

I believe that letting Caldwell go pushes Manning into a place he didn't want to go and he asks for a release rather than being willing to renegotiate that bonus.

[wercolts]

I think he's uncomfortable with the media because this is his first time speaking to them in this capacity, and his body language told me that he's annoyed when ask questions a reporter knows he won't answer.

[BIGugly]

This is not as easy a question to answer as everyone makes it to be. Manning is a human being with strong feelings of loyalty who expressed significant concern with Bill (not Chris) Polian being let go. He was just as close or more so to Caldwell and he is extremely smart. He knows he is nearing the end of his career and only has one ring and would seriously question being able to get another one as part of a "rebuilding" process. If he is healthy and the Colts pay him the $28 million, they will have to go into a total rebuilding because of the cap damage that bonus does to the team when combined with the existing cap problems we have. That makes the rebuild process dependent on draft choices, not expensive free agents that eveyone thinks we will chase because of Grigson's involvement with the Eagles.

I believe that letting Caldwell go pushes Manning into a place he didn't want to go and he asks for a release rather than being willing to renegotiate that bonus.

Well, maybe.

But ya gotta remember that Manning went around his agent and Polian directly to Irsay to get this last contract off center and started up again.

Also, Irsay has said more than once that he wants Manning's career to end nowhere else but here at the Colts.

[wercolts]

This is not as easy a question to answer as everyone makes it to be. Manning is a human being with strong feelings of loyalty who expressed significant concern with Bill (not Chris) Polian being let go. He was just as close or more so to Caldwell and he is extremely smart. He knows he is nearing the end of his career and only has one ring and would seriously question being able to get another one as part of a "rebuilding" process. If he is healthy and the Colts pay him the $28 million, they will have to go into a total rebuilding because of the cap damage that bonus does to the team when combined with the existing cap problems we have. That makes the rebuild process dependent on draft choices, not expensive free agents that eveyone thinks we will chase because of Grigson's involvement with the Eagles.

I believe that letting Caldwell go pushes Manning into a place he didn't want to go and he asks for a release rather than being willing to renegotiate that bonus.

Is there a team out there that's just a really expensive aging QB away from an assured Super Bowl win? I can name 2, the Jets and the Colts. Which one do you think Peyton will be able to have success with faster?

[Tracy Denton]

I thought Mannings last contract was for 1 year with an option and if they pick up the option (march bonus) it kicks in the rest of the years(4), if this is correct what would be the cap hit if the option is not picked up ?

[mvbighead]

It's actually pretty easy.. Manning is healthy = He's a Colt. Manning is not healthy = he's released.

Mind made up!

It's actually not that easy. 28 Million to be paid. A high salary player we're stuck with for more than 1 season in the midst of drafting Luck who should be on the field in no more than 1 season. They cannot cut Manning after they pay out that 28. The only other option is to find a trading partner who would pick up a big chunk of that, if that is even possible.

So no, this is no easy decision. All the more reason for Grigson to be uncomfortable with the changes that will be coming. To be the guy that cut Peyton Manning? To be the guy that passed on Luck? To be the guy that committed $30+ million to the QB position? These are all poor choices, but one will have to be made.

Also, he commented on insisting upon creating a balanced roster. I don't know how you do that with $30+ million going to the QB position.

In any case, not an easy decision, and not an enviable one. If we had Sanchez on the roster, this'd be a no brainer. But it ain't Sanchez... it's Peyton Freaking Manning. A sure HOF player that is not only the face of his franchise, but also one of the biggest faces in the league.

[JWF]

Is there a team out there that's just a really expensive aging QB away from an assured Super Bowl win? I can name 2, the Jets and the Colts. Which one do you think Peyton will be able to have success with faster?

Maybe this post is tongue in cheek and im missing it..

The Jets. This team is a far cry from an assured playoff appearance with Peyton...much less an assured Super Bowl win.

[Quantum88]

Is there a team out there that's just a really expensive aging QB away from an assured Super Bowl win? I can name 2, the Jets and the Colts. Which one do you think Peyton will be able to have success with faster?

The Colts are not a really expensive aging QB away from a Super Bowl, they are a team that is starting a major "rebuilding effort." The cost of keeping Manning will prevent them from being a serious contender for years unless he is willing to restructure and there are some experts that say because of the trigger date in the contract, it can not be restructured. If Manning is as upset with Caldwell being fired as he appeared to be with Bill Polian being fired, he may not be wiling to restructure at all, which means the Colts can not pursue talent the way they will need to to rebuild the team.

I personally believe that the firing of Caldwell means the team recognizes this and, even if Peyton is healthy, will not pay the bonus and release him.

[NagelHausForge]

Just because Grigson rung his hands and his answer got short does not mean he is planning on trading Manning. All that simply indicates is that he was holding back information and his mind was busier than his mouth and in order to dispell that energy, and not spill the beans, he decided to wring his hands. One way or another, Grigson was being deceptive in his answer.

I work as an investigator and as part of my job I have been trained to detect changes in behavior and attitude during questioning.... its fun. Especially when you watch politicians. However, you need to set a "norm" for how people answer questions. This is typically done by asking a few biographical questions at the beginning of the interview and annotating the behaviors during their answers. These are the norms. Then during the interview when you hit on a "stress point", which in this instance was the question of PMs status, you tend to see nervous ticks, fluttering of the eyes, garbled speech, etc. if the person is being deceptive.

Ok, I know thats probably more info than most people wanted to know....

[The Fish]

I'd bet my house the Colts release Peyton.

[hawkeyes]

Manning taking his talents to Miami ala King James?

[wercolts]

Maybe this post is tongue in cheek and im missing it..

The Jets. This team is a far cry from an assured playoff appearance with Peyton...much less an assured Super Bowl win.

I agree but that's the talk. Point is, what team has a better chance to win it all with Manning than the Colts do. IMO, going to a new team in Peyton's uncertain situation would be a step back for him compared to the 2010 Colts. They won 10 games with half the team in the infirmary. They have 4 #1's and 3 #2's in this years draft and expect to get 7 starters back from IR. They are only 2 years removed from making it to a Super Bowl they were only a hand full of plays from winning. Again, what team needing a QB gives him better odds in the limited number of years he has left?

[wercolts]

One way or another, Grigson was being deceptive in his answer.

In your opinion, could annoyance or plain old public speaking nervousness account for a lot of his body language?

[No 1 Manning Fan]

I don't think trading him is possiable based on the sallary cap hit. Releasing him could be another story. The Colts are sure dropping hints that they are looking into it. All the 98 refrences and new era stuff.

Yes.

I am frankly tired of hearing people asking for a trade for Manning. It's just not fiscally responsible. I don't them to absorb a $28 million hit to the cap. That's going to seriously hamper the signing of free agents and for what? In order to NOT have Manning. Paying millions to get rid of one of the best QBs the NFL has ever seen. No thanks.

[Flash7]

Just watch that press conference. The subsconscious mind has fascinating ways to display the conscious thoughts in body language. Grigson was fluid at times, even Galdiator like at the end. But when the one time Peyton was brought up it was a quick "no" folllowed by a literal "washing of the hands clean". Was his subsconscious clearly not comfortable? That grinding of the hands is his tell! He is hinding something. You dont get this job without knowing what you are doing with the face of THE NFL.

I would think that as a GM you are aware of the decisions related to personnel. I am sure that he and Irsay have had several conversations about Manning. It's only logical that they would. Irsay may have the final say, but that doesn't mean that Grigson doesn't know what the outcome may be. When he was asked about Manning, it was evident that he was careful to not leak out any information and was very calculated and nervous. Obviously it's the biggest decision the franchise has to make.

[Mexicolt]

I think Peyton could really have a chance at a SB if he goes to AZ or KC... Especially if you take into account this wont happen via trade, it would happen via FA, so either team would still be able to retain draft picks and maybe, just maybe sign a FA to help him.

[JoKeR]

This what happens when suspicions come before evidence, people often come to false conclusions.

[Larry Horseman]

It's actually not that easy. 28 Million to be paid. A high salary player we're stuck with for more than 1 season in the midst of drafting Luck who should be on the field in no more than 1 season. They cannot cut Manning after they pay out that 28. The only other option is to find a trading partner who would pick up a big chunk of that, if that is even possible.

So no, this is no easy decision. All the more reason for Grigson to be uncomfortable with the changes that will be coming. To be the guy that cut Peyton Manning? To be the guy that passed on Luck? To be the guy that committed $30+ million to the QB position? These are all poor choices, but one will have to be made.

Also, he commented on insisting upon creating a balanced roster. I don't know how you do that with $30+ million going to the QB position.

In any case, not an easy decision, and not an enviable one. If we had Sanchez on the roster, this'd be a no brainer. But it ain't Sanchez... it's Peyton Freaking Manning. A sure HOF player that is not only the face of his franchise, but also one of the biggest faces in the league.

If Manning and Luck are on the roster next year, it would be around a $22 million cap hit, not $30+ as you suggest. That is still a lot wrapped up in the QB position, but it's not over $30 million. Now, if they sign and trade PM, then there could be nearly $40 million in the QB position depending on when PM is traded (see below).

Also, for those talking about PM restructuring his deal, there is really no way it can be done to become more cap friendly. His base salary (which could be restructured in theory) isn't the problem, it's the guaranteed money (which cannot be restructured) that is the problem. If he is on the roster on March 8, the Colts are on the hook for $51 million in guaranteed money ($20 mill signing bonus, $3 million 2011 roster bonus, and $28 million guaranteed for being on roster after March 8, a portion of each of these were paid through his 2011 cap hit of $16 million). The Colts will have to pay this in full regardless of how much longer PM plays or if he is traded. The difference is if he is not traded then the guaranteed cap hit can be spread over the life of his contract, and if he is traded all remaining guaranteed money hits on the 2012 cap, unless he is traded after July something and then it can be split between the 2012 and 2013 caps. There is nothing Manning or the front office can do about this situation, and even if PM is cut before March 8, he will still have around a $10 million 2012 cap hit. Dicey situation...

[JoKeR]

Cutting Manning will have a substantial cap hit as well. He will only be cut if he can't play anymore.

[NM_Colts]

Well, maybe.

But ya gotta remember that Manning went around his agent and Polian directly to Irsay to get this last contract off center and started up again.

Also, Irsay has said more than once that he wants Manning's career to end nowhere else but here at the Colts.

And there are so few here and in the media that actually remember OR acknowledge that. If Irsay says that I believe it. To bleep with the speculation on that matter.

[DILLIGAFER]

I'd bet my house the Colts release Peyton.

I'll bet every horse I own Peyton stays a Colt. Be it a player or a coach.

[Larry Horseman]

For anyone interested, here is a link to a thread about the cap implications of cutting or trading PM: http://forums.colts.com/index.php?/topic/4383-manning-contract-and-cap-impacts-for-cuttingtrading/

[JoKeR]

For anyone interested, here is a link to a thread about the cap implications of cutting or trading PM: http://forums.colts.com/index.php?/topic/4383-manning-contract-and-cap-impacts-for-cuttingtrading/

Just shows you the logic behind Irsay's statement that Manning will be a Colt if he's healthy.

[Larry Horseman]

Just shows you the logic behind Irsay's statement that Manning will be a Colt if he's healthy.

Yep, and the fact that PM gives us the best chance to win. I used to be in the camp where we cannot have both Luck and Manning on the roster. The more I think about it, it is probably the best of a bunch of bad scenarios.

On topic, Grigson has a solid idea about what he and Irsay are going to do about PM, and he was obviously not going to tell the media what that was yesterday. I'm sure whoever is brought in as HC will also be part of this discussion, or at least asked their opinion on the issue during the interview process. Let's be honest, this is a bigger decision than firing the Polians and Caldwell. I do think the decision is still somewhat up in the air, however, because it really hinges on he health of PM...

[JWF]

I agree but that's the talk. Point is, what team has a better chance to win it all with Manning than the Colts do. IMO, going to a new team in Peyton's uncertain situation would be a step back for him compared to the 2010 Colts. They won 10 games with half the team in the infirmary. They have 4 #1's and 3 #2's in this years draft and expect to get 7 starters back from IR. They are only 2 years removed from making it to a Super Bowl they were only a hand full of plays from winning. Again, what team needing a QB gives him better odds in the limited number of years he has left?

4 #1's? Im guessing you mean in terms of each round? Not trying to be a jerk. Just want to make sure I know what you meant.

I see youre point about an uncertain situation but what exactly do you think the Colts are at this point? This team is heading in a new direction and more than likely changing offensive and defensive systems. That means a decent amount of the current players on this team may not factor in and the team will be relying on younger players who fit the scheme to play large roles.

I do agree there is still talent on this team but there are also glaring holes.

I know its certainly possible to go from worst to first as its happened before, im just highly skeptical one draft and a limited FA (since this team will have no cap space if they bring back Manning) is going to do it.

Well shall certainly see.

[Tony Sullivan]

We have to remember that Manning pushed a lot of his salary around to get other players deals. A lot of that 16m is money that he should have already been paid. So while it is money against our cap if he doesn't play, it's money that we've pushed back to get our cap working the past couple of years anyways.

[Larry Horseman]

We have to remember that Manning pushed a lot of his salary around to get other players deals. A lot of that 16m is money that he should have already been paid. So while it is money against our cap if he doesn't play, it's money that we've pushed back to get our cap working the past couple of years anyways.

This makes absolutely zero sense and has no bearing in the reality of the PM cap situation. http://forums.colts....cuttingtrading/

[BIGugly]

I'd bet my house the Colts release Peyton.

I'll see that, and raise you one outhouse.

[ToJen1981]

I agree but that's the talk. Point is, what team has a better chance to win it all with Manning than the Colts do. IMO, going to a new team in Peyton's uncertain situation would be a step back for him compared to the 2010 Colts. They won 10 games with half the team in the infirmary. They have 4 #1's and 3 #2's in this years draft and expect to get 7 starters back from IR. They are only 2 years removed from making it to a Super Bowl they were only a hand full of plays from winning. Again, what team needing a QB gives him better odds in the limited number of years he has left?

Well, I would say KC would fit that description best. Good, young defense(Berry, Flowers, D.Johnson, Hali) great RB (Charles), good core of young recievers(Bowe, Breaston, Moeaki, Baldwin). KC had a brutal schedule this year, lost quite a few key players, head coach fired late in the season, starting QB on IR, horrible clock management by Haley in nearly every game he coached, and still finished just one game away of making the playoffs. Plus, alot of salary cap room.

[BleedingBlue]

OP stealing my comments from chat on the day of the press conference and posting them as his own.

Its doubtful that two people could make the same observation

[TheNextGM]

It's actually not that easy. 28 Million to be paid. A high salary player we're stuck with for more than 1 season in the midst of drafting Luck who should be on the field in no more than 1 season. They cannot cut Manning after they pay out that 28. The only other option is to find a trading partner who would pick up a big chunk of that, if that is even possible.

So no, this is no easy decision. All the more reason for Grigson to be uncomfortable with the changes that will be coming. To be the guy that cut Peyton Manning? To be the guy that passed on Luck? To be the guy that committed $30+ million to the QB position? These are all poor choices, but one will have to be made.

Also, he commented on insisting upon creating a balanced roster. I don't know how you do that with $30+ million going to the QB position.

In any case, not an easy decision, and not an enviable one. If we had Sanchez on the roster, this'd be a no brainer. But it ain't Sanchez... it's Peyton Freaking Manning. A sure HOF player that is not only the face of his franchise, but also one of the biggest faces in the league.

I believe Irsay. He's always been a man with integrity and respect for the fans. SO.. when he says if Manning is healthy he is a Colt then I believe him!

[basketballsteve]

I'd bet my house the Colts release Peyton.

What do you get if you're right?

[GoColts00]

Is there a team out there that's just a really expensive aging QB away from an assured Super Bowl win? I can name 2, the Jets and the Colts. Which one do you think Peyton will be able to have success with faster?

I think the 49ers could. They have the Defense already. They have a Run game and some good WRs & TE. Peyton would complete that package.