Spotrac contract predictions for Andrew Luck and Coby Fleener

[BProland85]

http://horseshoeheroes.com/2016/01/22/spotrac-projects-andrew-luck-and-coby-fleeners-next-contracts/

 

I think they're a little low on Luck's contract, but a little high on Fleener's deal. They say that Fleener is a good blocker, which we all know isn't true. That fact alone bumps his value down a little. Not to mention his numbers took a big hit this past year.

[Jason_]

1 minute ago, BProland85 said:

http://horseshoeheroes.com/2016/01/22/spotrac-projects-andrew-luck-and-coby-fleeners-next-contracts/

 

I think they're a little low on Luck's contract, but a little high on Fleener's deal. They say that Fleener is a good blocker, which we all know isn't true. That fact alone bumps his value down a little. Not to mention his numbers took a big hit this past year.

 

It wasn't true his rookie year, but he has improved quite a bit.

[azcolt]

Fleener isn't a terrible blocker but a strong breeze can tackle him.

[bababooey]

3 minutes ago, BProland85 said:

http://horseshoeheroes.com/2016/01/22/spotrac-projects-andrew-luck-and-coby-fleeners-next-contracts/

 

I think they're a little low on Luck's contract, but a little high on Fleener's deal. They say that Fleener is a good blocker, which we all know isn't true. That fact alone bumps his value down a little. Not to mention his numbers took a big hit this past year.

The numbers aren't his problem. The whole offense was down last year. I think it's kind of a wash counting last year if you were to re-sign some of our offensive guys after their rookie deals are done. If you were to wait on TY then would he have gotten much difference than he did last year?

[jet1968]

5 yr $86 million

If I was Luck I wouldn't sign that contract

 

Isn't Franchise tag something like $20 million?  Almost a $3 million dollar difference. 

[SilentHill]

I think 5 years is too low.

[OffensivelyPC]

29 minutes ago, jet1968 said:

5 yr $86 million

If I was Luck I wouldn't sign that contract

 

Isn't Franchise tag something like $20 million?  Almost a $3 million dollar difference. 

Because it's probably taking into account this past year as "performance."

[jet1968]

Just now, OffensivelyPC said:

Because it's probably taking into account this past year as "performance."

 I guess that is what I'm saying. I would "bet" on myself and make them pay me more. or let them franchise me and get paid more anyways.

[ReMeDy]

 

17 minutes ago, jet1968 said:

 I guess that is what I'm saying. I would "bet" on myself and make them pay me more. or let them franchise me and get paid more anyways.

 

But this is the same guy who used a flip-phone for god knows how long (hell, maybe he still uses it). I like to think he will agree to a reasonable contract.

[jet1968]

9 minutes ago, ReMeDy said:

 

 

But this is the same guy who used a flip-phone for god knows how long (hell, maybe he still uses it). I like to think he will agree to a reasonable contract.

I still use a flip phone and I wouldn't agree to it. But I'm not in line to make 100+ million dollars

[MR. Blueblood]

8 minutes ago, ReMeDy said:

 

 

But this is the same guy who used a flip-phone for god knows how long (hell, maybe he still uses it). I like to think he will agree to a reasonable contract.

flip phone or no flip phone Luck is going to get paid! 

 

After taking the hits the last 3 and 1/2 seasons, if I were him, I would get about every penny I could.  And I doubt he's going to leave much on the table, nor should he.  

 

NFL careers only last so long, somebody is going to pay him 20+ mil/yr, whether it's the Colts or somebody else.  I would be floored if he signed a deal for anything less than 20 mil/yr.

[crazycolt1]

1 hour ago, azcolt said:

Fleener isn't a terrible blocker but a strong breeze can tackle him.

I think it is more of a ball control issue. He protects the ball better than most and has only had one fumble his whole career. I would rather he protected the ball and not risk putting it on the ground like he does.

[JPPT1974]

Despite the off year Andrew had, he will get a new deal worth around $100M I am predicting.

[jet1968]

If I was Luck I would respond as General McAuliffe commander of the 101st at the battle of Bastogne did when asked if he wanted to surrender.

 

To the German Commander,

NUTS!!!!!

The American Commander

[crazycolt1]

6 minutes ago, jet1968 said:

If I was Luck I would respond as General McAuliffe commander of the 101st at the battle of Bastogne did when asked if he wanted to surrender.

 

To the German Commander,

NUTS!!!!!

The American Commander

What are you even talking about? Contract talks haven't even started.

[Cynjin]

22 minutes ago, jet1968 said:

I still use a flip phone 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

So do I.

[SDakColts]

The Luck contract seems on the low side. If Grigs can get Luck locked up on a contract like that Mr. Irsay would be smiling all the way to the bank knowing he got a steal.

[ponyboy]

2 hours ago, BProland85 said:

http://horseshoeheroes.com/2016/01/22/spotrac-projects-andrew-luck-and-coby-fleeners-next-contracts/

 

I think they're a little low on Luck's contract, but a little high on Fleener's deal. They say that Fleener is a good blocker, which we all know isn't true. That fact alone bumps his value down a little. Not to mention his numbers took a big hit this past year.

 

FWIW, PFF has Fleener as the top rated Colts TE blocker this year.

 

RunBlock

Fleener: 70.2/100

Doyle: 63.6/100

Allen: 33.1/100

 

PassBlock

Fleener: 76.9/100

Allen: 61.0/100

Doyle: 35.0/100

 

I was surprised by these numbers.  The most surprising is how low Allen was in run blocking.  Those combined scores would put Fleener in approximately the top 10 or 12 of TEs in the league for blocking -- which surprised me too.

 

[jet1968]

1 hour ago, crazycolt1 said:

What are you even talking about? Contract talks haven't even started.

I guess I will-

If I was Luck and they offered me 5 year 86 million per year I would tell them "Nuts"  That is the prupose of this thread the projected contract per Spotrac.

[crazycolt1]

1 hour ago, Cynjin said:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

So do I.

You both got me beat. I don't even own a cell phone.

[Cynjin]

6 minutes ago, crazycolt1 said:

You both got me beat. I don't even own a cell phone.

 

I wouldn't either, but I have to have one for work.  The bossman likes to be able to get a hold of me.  I make it harder for him, because he knows I will not text on this phone.

[COLTS449]

Either way we obviously have to bring back Luck. But IMO we have to bring Fleener back too. He's a good receiving TE who was a beast in 14 and will be again next year with Luck and no Pep Hamilton. Luck - 7yrs, 140million....Fleener - 4 years, 20 million. But if we had to give Fleener 4/24 to keep him then that's fine with me.

[COLTBLUE42]

56 minutes ago, COLTS449 said:

Either way we obviously have to bring back Luck. But IMO we have to bring Fleener back too. He's a good receiving TE who was a beast in 14 and will be again next year with Luck and no Pep Hamilton. Luck - 7yrs, 140million....Fleener - 4 years, 20 million. But if we had to give Fleener 4/24 to keep him then that's fine with me.

I'm from Houston but a die hard Colts fan, my buddy who is a Texans fan threw this idea at me last night. What if the Texans had a plan & got in contact with Oliver Luck(CEO of Houston Dynamo & Andrews's dad) if he would be interested in a GM job & firing Rick Smith. Then that would lure his son to his hometown team. Couldn't see that happening but it was a interesting idea that scared the crap out of me. I say give Luck a Alex Rodgriguez deal lol just so he has no choice of going anywhere else. GO COLTS!

[jskinnz]

44 minutes ago, COLTBLUE42 said:

I'm from Houston but a die hard Colts fan, my buddy who is a Texans fan threw this idea at me last night. What if the Texans had a plan & got in contact with Oliver Luck(CEO of Houston Dynamo & Andrews's dad) if he would be interested in a GM job & firing Rick Smith. Then that would lure his son to his hometown team. Couldn't see that happening but it was a interesting idea that scared the crap out of me. I say give Luck a Alex Rodgriguez deal lol just so he has no choice of going anywhere else. GO COLTS!

 

Did that nonsense actually scare you?  

 

Your friend is not a savant.

[shakedownstreet]

what is a "flip" phone? is flip some trendy new brand all the cool kids have?

[Carlos Danger]

There is a financial security angle to be looked at here, as well. 

 

Sure, the franchise tag might pay him more than this contract, but it's dangerous to play without a guaranteed deal. Luck missed a bunch of games last season due to injury. I think he may understand the importance of getting a long term deal done as career-ending injury insurance, heaven forbid.  

[Superman]

21 minutes ago, Carlos Danger said:

There is a financial security angle to be looked at here, as well. 

 

Sure, the franchise tag might pay him more than this contract, but it's dangerous to play without a guaranteed deal. Luck missed a bunch of games last season due to injury. I think he may understand the importance of getting a long term deal done as career-ending injury insurance, heaven forbid.  

 

Cam Newton is the precedent. Play out the four years, use the fifth year option but extend him before the season. I think that's what they'll do with Luck, and that's what Irsay has said he wants to do.

[chad72]

6 hours ago, SilentHill said:

I think 5 years is too low.

 

Not if the guaranteed money is high. Rivers got what $65 mil. guaranteed in a 4 yr. $84 mil. contract???

 

I am thinking 5 years $110 mil. with $70 mil. guaranteed should get us through for another 5 years. Like everyone else, I am throwing a dart but it is based on Russell Wilson's 4 yr. $87.5 mil. contract and the guaranteed amount is based on what Philip Rivers and other established QBs have gotten lately.

[NewColtsFan]

5 hours ago, COLTBLUE42 said:

I'm from Houston but a die hard Colts fan, my buddy who is a Texans fan threw this idea at me last night. What if the Texans had a plan & got in contact with Oliver Luck(CEO of Houston Dynamo & Andrews's dad) if he would be interested in a GM job & firing Rick Smith. Then that would lure his son to his hometown team. Couldn't see that happening but it was a interesting idea that scared the crap out of me. I say give Luck a Alex Rodgriguez deal lol just so he has no choice of going anywhere else. GO COLTS!

 

I'm guessing your friend has not closely followed the careers or the relationship between Andrew and Oliver Luck.

 

One of the things they both like best is that on a football level -- they rarely talk football with each other.   It's been that way since Andrew started playing ball in High School.     Oliver has let the coaches coach.   I can't imagine that Oliver wants the responsibility of over-seeing his son's career.

 

I think both father and son would say....   "Thanks, but not thanks!"   And if that wasn't enough,  they'd add.... "No.    Oh, HELL no!!"

 

[NewColtsFan]

5 hours ago, shakedownstreet said:

what is a "flip" phone? is flip some trendy new brand all the cool kids have?

 

 

Seriously?

 

A flip phone is something you likely owned 10-15 years ago.

 

It's like a wallet.    The two halves are hinged on one side and to open/close it,  it's flips....

 

It's so old,  and has been so old for so long, that people can't even remember what it was.....

 

 

 

[NewColtsFan]

10 hours ago, BProland85 said:

http://horseshoeheroes.com/2016/01/22/spotrac-projects-andrew-luck-and-coby-fleeners-next-contracts/

 

I think they're a little low on Luck's contract, but a little high on Fleener's deal. They say that Fleener is a good blocker, which we all know isn't true. That fact alone bumps his value down a little. Not to mention his numbers took a big hit this past year.

 

The Spotrac speculation on Luck is, frankly, embarrassing.

 

They blame Luck for most of his troubles and not the Colts.

 

The have Luck getting the same average annual value as Sam Bradford and LESS THAN Tyrod Taylor.

 

One would have to be incredibly drunk to have to try and make that argument.

 

There is virtually zero chance that Luck signs a deal for less than 100 Million.    And that's on a 5-year deal.

 

Remember,  6 months ago it was projected by NFL types that Luck would become the NFL's Highest Paid Player.     You think he somehow fell to 18.6m in one season?      No.     Hell no.    

 

I think the last Spotrac numbers that I posted here about 4-5 months ago were around 23 Mill per.    I don't think they fell roughly 4 mill per year.      

 

If the Colts tried to offer Luck this the negotiations would turn sour.    I don't think that happens.

 

Irsay is too smart to bite the hand that's feeding him....

 

 

 

[Lawrence Owen]

5 minutes ago, NewColtsFan said:

 

 

Seriously?

 

A flip phone is something you likely owned 10-15 years ago.

 

It's like a wall.    The two halves are hinged on one side and to open/close it,  it's flips....

 

It's so old,  and has been so old for so long, that people can't even remember what it was.....

 

 

LMAO.

I'm 40...and just bought my First phone 2 weeks ago.  And wouldn't have if my house hadn't burned down and I no longer had a house phone...lol  Only reason I use a phone for now is to make/receive calls, and to check time occasionally...so a flip phone is actually perfect for me since carting it around is not like trying to pocket carry a tablet all day like the newer phones these days....:P

[JPPT1974]

I still have a flip phone too and I am 41-years old! 

[Lawrence Owen]

yeah..spotrac is off on Luck's deal.

Quite frankly, if Luck gets 20 mil/year I'd be ecstatic.

I'm more expecting a 22-24 mil/year deal though.

[RockThatBlue]

I would be stunned if Lucks contract wasn't 20 million a year or more.

[achcolts]

have a feeling whatever the contract is, itll be lucks last in the nfl

[NewColtsFan]

6 minutes ago, achcolts said:

have a feeling whatever the contract is, itll be lucks last in the nfl

 

Huh?

 

Why would you think that?

 

Luck's deal will likely be 6 years give or take.    He'll be in his early 30's when it's done.   Still young enough for another big deal...

 

 

[shakedownstreet]

3 hours ago, NewColtsFan said:

Seriously?

 

no, no, not seriously

[jskinnz]

4 hours ago, NewColtsFan said:

 

The Spotrac speculation on Luck is, frankly, embarrassing.

 

They blame Luck for most of his troubles and not the Colts.

 

The have Luck getting the same average annual value as Sam Bradford and LESS THAN Tyrod Taylor.

 

One would have to be incredibly drunk to have to try and make that argument.

 

There is virtually zero chance that Luck signs a deal for less than 100 Million.    And that's on a 5-year deal.

 

Remember,  6 months ago it was projected by NFL types that Luck would become the NFL's Highest Paid Player.     You think he somehow fell to 18.6m in one season?      No.     Hell no.    

 

I think the last Spotrac numbers that I posted here about 4-5 months ago were around 23 Mill per.    I don't think they fell roughly 4 mill per year.      

 

If the Colts tried to offer Luck this the negotiations would turn sour.    I don't think that happens.

 

Irsay is too smart to bite the hand that's feeding him....

 

 

 

 

Yeah, that was my read as well.  I had to read their numbers a second time to make sure I had them right.  First looked like they were missing a zero.

[ponyboy]

6 hours ago, NewColtsFan said:

 

The Spotrac speculation on Luck is, frankly, embarrassing.

 

They blame Luck for most of his troubles and not the Colts.

 

The have Luck getting the same average annual value as Sam Bradford and LESS THAN Tyrod Taylor.

 

One would have to be incredibly drunk to have to try and make that argument.

 

 

I think there's a misunderstanding about what these numbers mean.   They list two numbers -- the CALCULATED number, which is a "fair market value" based solely on the quarterbacks ratings (Passer rating, QBR, and possibly the PFF rating), and the EXPECTED number which is the realistic number.

 

The calculated number will of course be low since Luck had such poor ratings last year (one of the lowest rated quarterbacks last year in any of the rating systems).   If the calculated number is based solely on performance relative to peer performance and their respective contracts, then you'll get the absurd results like Luck having a FMV less than Tyrod Taylor.

 

But that's not what they are speculating that he would actually make.  Sportrac's expected number would be their speculation -- and they state in the article he is a $100+ million dollar talent and will be shooting for at least $22M/year.  Although, they actually punted on the expected number which they stated wouldn't happen in 2016. 

 

I hope the Colts do extend Luck this off season and he's in the $22M range long term.