What do you think Andrew Lucks new contract will be like?

[Andrew Luck's Beard]

23 hours ago, JRnINDY said:

Would love to see Andrew take a creative deal that respects him and allows the team cap friendly movement.

Say: 6 yr @ 16 per = 99 mil., plus 2% ownership

 

just thinking out the box and drinking coolaid

[jbaron04]

On 1/20/2016 at 9:54 PM, RockThatBlue said:

Thoughts?

25 m per , but I'm hoping luck isn't that greedy and take 18m-20M  at least 

[jskinnz]

36 minutes ago, jbaron04 said:

25 m per , but I'm hoping luck isn't that greedy and take 18m-20M  at least 

 

Does taking market value make you greedy? 

[Superman]

4 hours ago, csmopar said:

10 years, 180 mil, 110 guaranteeed

 

If you were Luck, would you sign a ten year deal?

[Bluefire4]

On January 20, 2016 at 4:16 PM, 2006Coltsbestever said:

What is scary is Russell Wilson signed for 4 years for 87 Million which equates too 21.75 Mill a year. So what is Andrew Luck worth then? To me Andrew is the better QB so I am thinking Irsay does something like 5 years for 110 Million = 22 Mill a year. Just a guess.  

He does have a super bowl ring and another appearance on his resume but it will be interesting to see what contract they use as a guide for Luck's new deal.

[csmopar]

3 hours ago, Superman said:

 

If you were Luck, would you sign a ten year deal?

Yep.

[jvan1973]

4 minutes ago, csmopar said:

Yep.

That's not gonna happen.  

[csmopar]

1 minute ago, jvan1973 said:

That's not gonna happen.  

Hey....anything can happen with enough alcohol involved......

[chrisfarley]

Thinking back to the Manning era, does anyone recall what happened after Manning got his big contract?  Did our team suffer from CAP issues, degraded o-line, d-line, etc. My faint recollection tells me we had some major suffering eventually.  I know we had pro bowlers at many positions that we managed to keep and managed to build meagerly through the draft.  I found this article dating back to 2004.  Can't believe how much he got paid way back then.  

 

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A33299-2004May17.html

[Iancolts]

Andrew Luck is gonna get the highest QB contract!  He is gonna break the record.  This is a little off topic.  But Jim Irsay has to pay Luck doesn't matter how high it's gonna be.  Do the colts from here on out spend money strictly on defense and OL.  And go cheap on WR RB and TE position?  I believe that's the only way to win it all after FO pays Luck. 

[jbaron04]

6 hours ago, jskinnz said:

 

Does taking market value make you greedy? 

Lol , luck don't want to end up like flaaco breaking the bank and killing his team 

[BlueShoe]

21 hours ago, jskinnz said:

 

Where you go wrong in trying to make your point is using Kaepernick as the proof.  That is QB funny money where they can easily escape.  The FRANCHISE level QB's are the ones who will very likely see every penny on their contracts - Brady, Manning (early days), Big Ben, etc.  Luck is in that category.

 

I don't suggest that what you presented is off base in concept but just that the #'s will be higher should the Colts go down this path

 

At one time the 49ers thought Kaepernick was a FRANCHISE quarterback. Just a few years ago he was considered an up and coming, rising NFL star by many.

 

I don't remember anyone saying Kaepernick was elite, but Luck is also falling out of that category in many eyes as well. And Luck was never elite in some peoples eyes to begin with. He just had the potential to become elite. In my mind Luck will likely become the face of the NFL within the next 3-5 years, but common sense should tell you that a contract year of injuries and poor play will lead to money taken off of the table.

 

Before this year started, I 100% created and championed the notion that if every player was put in an NFL redraft that Andrew Luck would be the first pick by every NFL team. Now I am not so certain every team would pick him first. I still would pick him first, but an argument can be made for other players now.

 

You are arguing that I am off on the numbers, but you believe my overall premise is sound. We'll see.

[Superman]

5 hours ago, BlueShoe said:

 

At one time the 49ers thought Kaepernick was a FRANCHISE quarterback. Just a few years ago he was considered an up and coming, rising NFL star by many.

 

I don't remember anyone saying Kaepernick was elite, but Luck is also falling out of that category in many eyes as well. And Luck was never elite in some peoples eyes to begin with. He just had the potential to become elite. In my mind Luck will likely become the face of the NFL within the next 3-5 years, but common sense should tell you that a contract year of injuries and poor play will lead to money taken off of the table.

 

Before this year started, I 100% created and championed the notion that if every player was put in an NFL redraft that Andrew Luck would be the first pick by every NFL team. Now I am not so certain every team would pick him first. I still would pick him first, but an argument can be made for other players now.

 

You are arguing that I am off on the numbers, but you believe my overall premise is sound. We'll see.

 

Franchise QB's don't sign contracts with rolling guarantees. 

 

If Luck hit free agency right now, he'd be offered $25m/year with over $75m guaranteed. Not Kap, not two years ago, and not now.

[Superman]

14 hours ago, csmopar said:

Yep.

 

Why?

[csmopar]

6 minutes ago, Superman said:

 

Why?

 

Why would i take it if I were Andrew?  To be, I could be quite happy with 18 mil a year, mostly guaranteed.  There's very little 18 mil a year wouldn't buy me if I wanted it.  Plus I'd make a lot on endorsements and such.  So taking a 18 mil a year for 10 year discount to be with the same team and save them some salary cap to allow them to build a dominate team around me to get us to the championships I want to win, then heck yeah, I'd sign it.  and with 110 mil guaranteed, what's not to like

[SteelCityColt]

17 hours ago, Superman said:

 

If you were Luck, would you sign a ten year deal?

 

It's an interesting question... but I don't think you would on those numbers. Far too low when you consider the rate at which the cap has been going up. 

 

Now the bubble has got to burst at some point surely, or at the least see a period of slowdown but I think that's going to be well above 18 Mill/Year for a franchise QB. That's cheap even by the standards of now. 

 

In fact the more I think about it, such a long deal doesn't suit team nor player. 

[Superman]

6 minutes ago, csmopar said:

 

Why would i take it if I were Andrew?  To be, I could be quite happy with 18 mil a year, mostly guaranteed.  There's very little 18 mil a year wouldn't buy me if I wanted it.  Plus I'd make a lot on endorsements and such.  So taking a 18 mil a year for 10 year discount to be with the same team and save them some salary cap to allow them to build a dominate team around me to get us to the championships I want to win, then heck yeah, I'd sign it.  and with 110 mil guaranteed, what's not to like

 

That's really bad business, and I would hope Luck has smart numbers people around him (I'm sure he does). I think every player should maximize their earning potential, particularly in their prime years.

 

Right now, market value for a QB like Luck is about $20m/year. Luck's peak earning potential will last for about 5-7 years. If he takes a five year deal now, he'll be a free agent again at 31. The salary cap will be very near $200m by then. Elite QBs will be making $25m/year or more. By taking a ten year, $180m contract right now, Luck would be costing himself approximately $45m over the next ten years.

 

It's easy to turn up your nose at $45m when it's not your money. In reality, that's a huge amount of money that he could earn just by taking a shorter contract at fair market value, not by trying to break the bank.

 

If Luck averages $20m for the next five years and then $25m for the following five years, the team will have plenty of cap space. Over the next five years, the salary cap will probably average $175m/year, based on current and anticipated growth. That would mean Luck's contract would average about 11% of the cap. If the Colts can't put a solid roster around a franchise QB taking up 11% of the cap, that's bad roster management, not an issue of the QB making too much money.

 

If Luck wants to sign a ten year deal, that's great for the Colts. I don't think he should, and I don't think he will.

[csmopar]

3 minutes ago, Superman said:

 

That's really bad business, and I would hope Luck has smart numbers people around him (I'm sure he does). I think every player should maximize their earning potential, particularly in their prime years.

 

Right now, market value for a QB like Luck is about $20m/year. Luck's peak earning potential will last for about 5-7 years. If he takes a five year deal now, he'll be a free agent again at 31. The salary cap will be very near $200m by then. Elite QBs will be making $25m/year or more. By taking a ten year, $180m contract right now, Luck would be costing himself approximately $45m over the next ten years.

 

It's easy to turn up your nose at $45m when it's not your money. In reality, that's a huge amount of money that he could earn just by taking a shorter contract at fair market value, not by trying to break the bank.

 

If Luck averages $20m for the next five years and then $25m for the following five years, the team will have plenty of cap space. Over the next five years, the salary cap will probably average $175m/year, based on current and anticipated growth. That would mean Luck's contract would average about 11% of the cap. If the Colts can't put a solid roster around a franchise QB taking up 11% of the cap, that's bad roster management, not an issue of the QB making too much money.

 

If Luck wants to sign a ten year deal, that's great for the Colts. I don't think he should, and I don't think he will.

I never said he would.  You asked "If you were Andrew Luck, would you take that deal"  and I said yep.  I would.  Again, thats if it were me

[Superman]

15 minutes ago, SteelCityColt said:

 

It's an interesting question... but I don't think you would on those numbers. Far too low when you consider the rate at which the cap has been going up. 

 

Now the bubble has got to burst at some point surely, or at the least see a period of slowdown but I think that's going to be well above 18 Mill/Year for a franchise QB. That's cheap even by the standards of now. 

 

In fact the more I think about it, such a long deal doesn't suit team nor player. 

 

QB compensation has already slowed down. Peyton, Eli and Brady signed their $18m/year contracts five-plus years ago. Last year, Ben Roethlisberger signed a deal with a true value of five years, $99m, or $19.8m/year. Wilson's deal has a true value average of $17.8m/year. Cam's deal is $19.7m/year. That's an increase of about 9% in five years (those are the most recent QB deals).

 

Meanwhile, the cap has gone up from $123m in 2009 to $145m in 2015, an increase of 15%. Cap inflation has definitely outpaced QB compensation. Luck is the last big domino, and I don't think he'll come in higher than $22m/year.

[Superman]

5 minutes ago, csmopar said:

I never said he would.  You asked "If you were Andrew Luck, would you take that deal"  and I said yep.  I would.  Again, thats if it were me

 

That's fair, but I only asked because you responded to a thread asking what Luck's new contract will be like, and said you think he should do a ten year deal at $180m. 

[csmopar]

24 minutes ago, Superman said:

 

That's fair, but I only asked because you responded to a thread asking what Luck's new contract will be like, and said you think he should do a ten year deal at $180m. 

 

Right, and he should.  Will he, no, would he, no but do I think he should, yes I do.  for the team.

[Jason_]

1 hour ago, csmopar said:

 

Right, and he should.  Will he, no, would he, no but do I think he should, yes I do.  for the team.

 

His family probably feels like they should come first, not the team.

[csmopar]

8 minutes ago, Jason_S said:

 

His family probably feels like they should come first, not the team.

I'm sure they do.

 

Its a hypothetical suggestion is all.  Is it realistic, absolutely not 

[BlueShoe]

10 hours ago, Superman said:

 

Franchise QB's don't sign contracts with rolling guarantees. 

 

If Luck hit free agency right now, he'd be offered $25m/year with over $75m guaranteed. Not Kap, not two years ago, and not now.

 

You haven't read the entire conversation.

[Superman]

10 minutes ago, BlueShoe said:

 

You haven't read the entire conversation.

 

I have.

[BlueShoe]

24 minutes ago, Superman said:

 

I have.

 

So you're saying a fully guaranteed 6 year deal worth 100-110 million is out of the question?

[Superman]

49 minutes ago, BlueShoe said:

 

So you're saying a fully guaranteed 6 year deal worth 100-110 million is out of the question?

 

I'm not saying it's out of the question. I strongly doubt it's going to be an option, but anything is possible. 

 

All I'm saying is that Kap's contract isn't indicative of a player that's truly considered a franchise QB, and that despite Luck having a rough year, he'd still command a bigger and more player friendly contract than Kap got.

[BlueShoe]

1 minute ago, Superman said:

 

I'm not saying it's out of the question. I strongly doubt it's going to be an option, but anything is possible. 

 

All I'm saying is that Kap's contract isn't indicative of a player that's truly considered a franchise QB, and that despite Luck having a rough year, he'd still command a bigger and more player friendly contract than Kap got.

 

No one is arguing that Kaepernick is/was in the same league as Luck. 

 

If you are saying it's not out of the question for Luck to get a deal like I have laid out then what are you arguing with me about?

[TheRustonRifle#7]

Lets just hope it is an amicable agreement? Too many of you seem to think you have you all the answers...

[dw49]

6 minutes ago, Superman said:

 

I'm not saying it's out of the question. I strongly doubt it's going to be an option, but anything is possible. 

 

All I'm saying is that Kap's contract isn't indicative of a player that's truly considered a franchise QB, and that despite Luck having a rough year, he'd still command a bigger and more player friendly contract than Kap got.

 

 

A 6 year deal at around 100 million is "out of the question" in my opinion. If he escaped 2015 with a total clean bill of health ( remember the shoulder issue) , Irsay will be coughing up more then that.

[BlueShoe]

1 minute ago, TheRustonRifle#7 said:

Lets just hope it is an amicable agreement? Too many of you seem to think you have you all the answers...

 

And damn it if anyone else has a different opinion.

 

Too often these people who think they have all the answers are wrong and they forget just got wrong they were after the fact. Never even one admission. They act as if they never even said it or as if they knew it all along.

 

I'm throwing out a hypothetical and plausible idea and the scavengers flurry. It's what these boards are. Mostly a waste of time.

[Superman]

1 hour ago, BlueShoe said:

 

No one is arguing that Kaepernick is/was in the same league as Luck. 

 

If you are saying it's not out of the question for Luck to get a deal like I have laid out then what are you arguing with me about?

 

Why does me responding to your comment have to be an argument?

 

I think Kap's contract value reflects his potential, but the structure of the guarantees reflects his standing as something less than a 'franchise QB.' And I think Luck would get a much bigger contract with far more true guarantees than Kap got. That being the case, I don't think Kap's contract is a comparable. That was my point.

 

I wasn't really commenting on the idea that Luck could do a fully guaranteed contract with a smaller yearly average. But no, I don't think that's likely. Anything is possible, though.

[Superman]

1 hour ago, BlueShoe said:

 

And damn it if anyone else has a different opinion.

 

Too often these people who think they have all the answers are wrong and they forget just got wrong they were after the fact. Never even one admission. They act as if they never even said it or as if they knew it all along.

 

I'm throwing out a hypothetical and plausible idea and the scavengers flurry. It's what these boards are. Mostly a waste of time.

 

[Superman]

1 hour ago, dw49 said:

A 6 year deal at around 100 million is "out of the question" in my opinion. If he escaped 2015 with a total clean bill of health ( remember the shoulder issue) , Irsay will be coughing up more then that.

 

So far as 'anything is possible,' it's not 100% out of the question. Highly unlikely, IMO.

[Lawrence Owen]

How  about an incentive deal?

I know this is not a norm for a QB, but it could work well in this circumstance.

Not how many TD's he throws,. or yards he gets, but getting a bonus for an Int free game? And/Or being under an Int limit for a season?

If he truly believes/wants to improve in this area, maybe he'd take something like this to lower guarantee'd money on his contract.

But the more i think about it, maybe not.  Alot of Int's are not the QB's fault.  But worth looking into maybe.

[Superman]

10 minutes ago, Lawrence Owen said:

How  about an incentive deal?

I know this is not a norm for a QB, but it could work well in this circumstance.

Not how many TD's he throws,. or yards he gets, but getting a bonus for an Int free game? And/Or being under an Int limit for a season?

If he truly believes/wants to improve in this area, maybe he'd take something like this to lower guarantee'd money on his contract.

But the more i think about it, maybe not.  Alot of Int's are not the QB's fault.  But worth looking into maybe.

 

Incentive categories are predetermined by the CBA. Can't use interceptions, but you can use interception percentage (with a minimum of 224 attempts per season). 

 

I don't see why any player would agree to that, though. And aside from Peyton Manning's team-based incentives this season, I don't remember any well established QB having incentives in a contract. 

 

If you're interested, you can go here and scroll to page 113-116, you can see all the team and individual incentive categories that are allowed in the CBA.

[Lawrence Owen]

Yeah, like i said, I know it's not the norm for a QB to have an incentive deal.  It's just that all i've heard from Luck past few seasons is fixing the "knucklehead" mistakes.  He could prove he's legit in wanting to do so by agreeing to a Int  ratio deal.

I don't think he'd do it either, but it definitely would show me that it is something he's actively trying to fix if he did.

5 minutes ago, Superman said:

 

Incentive categories are predetermined by the CBA. Can't use interceptions, but you can use interception percentage (with a minimum of 224 attempts per season). 

 

I don't see why any player would agree to that, though. And aside from Peyton Manning's team-based incentives this season, I don't remember any well established QB having incentives in a contract. 

 

If you're interested, you can go here and scroll to page 113-116, you can see all the team and individual incentive categories that are allowed in the CBA.

 

[TheRustonRifle#7]

8 hours ago, BlueShoe said:

 

And damn it if anyone else has a different opinion.

 

Too often these people who think they have all the answers are wrong and they forget just got wrong they were after the fact. Never even one admission. They act as if they never even said it or as if they knew it all along.

 

I'm throwing out a hypothetical and plausible idea and the scavengers flurry. It's what these boards are. Mostly a waste of time.

Well stated!

 

[2006Coltsbestever]

Whatever deal Irsay does get done I hope it's at least for 5 years.

[JRnINDY]

Andrew had an awful year, statistically and injury wise. So I'm thinking a: 1 yr prove it deal around $15m.....................................lol