The Patriots Model

[dw49]

Pats cap situation is fine. They have a couple million to roll forward this year, and right now they have approximately $144m on the books for 2016. Projected cap hit at $155m (conservatively). They should decline Mayo's option and let him go, which frees up $7m. I don't know if the Hernandez rebate was ever awarded, or if it ever will be. They have a few free agents (Kline, Blount, Siliga, Hicks), but no one who should command a lot of money. They saved a lot by letting Revis walk, and they've cleared out other guys like Mankins and Wilfork, which makes life easier moving forward. Assuming Brady stays on a bargain deal, they'll be fine. Doesn't make up for losing a first rounder (plus a fourth the following year), as getting cheap, ascending players is critical to team building, and you can't make up for that with free agency (teams that try usually don't fare well).

 

I don't see why their next offseason will be different than any other, though. They've never been shy about signing a free agent, and it's not like they'll have more cap space than they typically do. They also have to prepare to re-sign Butler, Jones, Vollmer, Collins, Fleming, Cannon, Ninkovich, etc., after 2017.

 

They've always been a cap disciplined team, but they aren't doing anything better than anyone else. They use their cap space well, sometimes they have to let good players leave, and above everything else they have a superstar QB on a below market contract. 

 

 

Most of those players you mention are only under control for 2016 , so it 's after next year and not after 2017. I think Butler would be 2017 but the rest of the expensive guys are after 2016

[Hoosier]

I'm very optimistic for our season going forward, and here's why:

 

The first half offensive blue print was perfect. We got yards and points. We only abandoned the run for some deep throws late in the game when pep (wrongly) felt we needed to go deep passing more to catch up on points. 

 

Pagano identified that they abandoned the run and that they need to stick with gore more and that's good. Also apart from maybe the falcons or steelers in our remaining schedule, no one else is going to average a ridiculous 3.5 points per drive like the pats do this season. There are also no more good defenses remaining, save maybe a revitalized miami which is great on paper. This will play into our favor in keeping offensive balance.

 

Our defense played really good yesterday, and I think will keep getting better. Hope adams and geathers will be back for the saints, we'll need them.

I agree.  I was disappointed with the loss to the Pats, but not disgusted like I was after the AFCCG.

 

If they continue to play the way they did against the best team in the league, I genuinely believe they could win out and finish at 13-3.

 

[Bubbz]

The Patriots have been in business for a decade and a half. They don't have a 'model.' They have a great showrunner and a great QB. Everything else around them has changed at times, been really good and then been not so good. They've gone up and down at times on the OL, the DL, the secondary, the LBs, the TEs, the WRs, the backs, everything. The only constants have been Belichick and Brady.

 

No matter what Luck has the potential to be, at this point, he's no Brady. And there's no one else like Belichick. So trying to emulate the Patriots is an exercise in futility. It's also unnecessary. The Pats aren't the only good team in the NFL, and they have their flaws. 

in your opinion what are their flaws?  just curious

[Superman]

Most of those players you mention are only under control for 2016 , so it 's after next year and not after 2017. I think Butler would be 2017 but the rest of the expensive guys are after 2016

 

You're right, that's what I meant. Free agents in 2017, not after 2017. Butler is an RFA in 2017. 

[Superman]

in your opinion what are their flaws?  just curious

 

They don't have a good OL and they have a leaky run defense. Their entire offense revolves around Gronkowski, which is fine, but if he gets hurt (which happens), they don't have any other premium weapons. Not selling Edelman short, but we've seen that offense without Gronk, and Brady looks pedestrian. I'm really not sold on their secondary, but it's better than I expected it to be, even though I think Butler is being overrated.

 

They're obviously a really good team, but this is a salary cap league, and every team has flaws. And over the years, the Pats have had roster flaws of one kind or another. Just like everyone else. But Brady and Belichick are the dynamic duo, and they cover over a lot of flaws.

[dw49]

You're right, that's what I meant. Free agents in 2017, not after 2017. Butler is an RFA in 2017. 

 

 

I figured you knew that , I just didn't want Pat fans running with the idea they have 2 years left with core of players. Jones , Collins and Butler will be expensive. 

[Superman]

Thanks for weighing. I agree with all of this. They are well positioned to sign all of the big game young guys in the next couple of seasons and that is the core of the team. As you say, having Brady on a below market contract is the biggest key. As long he keeps playing great than that will help them the most.

 

I don't mean to derail this thread, but what are your thoughts on the Ravens? I have been reading article after article just slamming Ozzie for his team building since the SB season. What do you see as the biggest reasons why they are 1-5?

 

The Ravens have missed some draft picks and had some injuries. They wouldn't have let McPhee walk if they knew Suggs would get hurt, for instance. They never have good receivers, so I'm not surprised they let Torrey Smith walk (plus he got too much money), but missing Steve Smith makes that even worse. I guess they were expecting Pitta back, but he probably won't play ever again, so they're relying on the young TEs. All of their games have been close. 

 

Other teams with these issues are Green Bay, New England, etc. The ones that are doing well have great QBs. Flacco isn't on that level. 

 

Only criticism of Ozzie since 2012 is some missed picks. Not to minimize that, since the Ravens are one of the primary 'build through the draft, don't reach for need, limited free agency' teams, so missing on picks is huge. But Ozzie has been doing this for a long time, has had bad stretches before, but he usually does a good job.

 

I'd love to see Bisciotti get impatient and fired the whole front office, then maybe we could get our hands on Erik de Costa to be our GM. But none of that is gonna happen.

[indyspeed13]

Thanks for weighing. I agree with all of this. They are well positioned to sign all of the big game young guys in the next couple of seasons and that is the core of the team. As you say, having Brady on a below market contract is the biggest key. As long he keeps playing great than that will help them the most.

 

I don't mean to derail this thread, but what are your thoughts on the Ravens? I have been reading article after article just slamming Ozzie for his team building since the SB season. What do you see as the biggest reasons why they are 1-5?

this is a real head scratcher to me but after taking a good look at the ravens I think its very obvious.

1. Terrel Suggs the ravens remaining defensive superstar out for the season hurts in more ways than just his production

2. Secondary the injuries and inconsistent play in this area of the defense is really hurting them. (defense being their bread and butter and the only consistent group on this team is the linebackers minus suggs.

3. Downfield threats. well they have non. Breshad Perrimans injuries have prevented us from even seeing him this season and also prevented him from developing even if he comes back I think it will be too little too late

[Jim H.]

'pail'  :^)

 

If it was that easy everyone would do it.  With that being said, the build from the inside out, we build from the outside in.  They wouldn't draft a speedy wide out in the first round.  We build with the flashy guys they build with the "lunch pale" guys.

[JimJaime]

They don't have a good OL and they have a leaky run defense. Their entire offense revolves around Gronkowski, which is fine, but if he gets hurt (which happens), they don't have any other premium weapons. Not selling Edelman short, but we've seen that offense without Gronk, and Brady looks pedestrian. I'm really not sold on their secondary, but it's better than I expected it to be, even though I think Butler is being overrated.

They're obviously a really good team, but this is a salary cap league, and every team has flaws. And over the years, the Pats have had roster flaws of one kind or another. Just like everyone else. But Brady and Belichick are the dynamic duo, and they cover over a lot of flaws.

I disagree on the Oline as they were missing Stork and Wendell and when back they will be good to very good IMO.

[Superman]

I disagree on the Oline as they were missing Stork and Wendell and when back they will be good to very good IMO.

 

Presumably.

[lennymoore24]

Well, I think to emulate the Pats:

 

1) Concentrate more on lines then skill positions.

2) Big, athletic linebackers who can stop run, pass, and rush passer.

3) Get role players cheap who can do one thing very well and they will use them exactly in that rule.

4) Have the ability to change gameplan by game, half, or even quarter.  They can be a passing team or a runnig team.

5) Don't make mistakes.

 

They have arguably the greatest coach in NFL history.  He so outcoaches and outthinks everyone else, it isn't close.  That is a HUGE help.

 

I like coaches we have had.  But I wouldn't say Tony Dungy or Chuck Pagano are great coaches that can take mediocre players and have them play above their level.  That is what is missing with the Colts.  Peyton never had that kind of coach.  So I think if Chuck does get let go, Irsay has to look at someone like Harbaugh as possibly a very good to great coach.  He has won everywhere he has ever been.  Not sure that the lower level will beat the Pats.

[Johnny colt]

They don't have a good OL and they have a leaky run defense. Their entire offense revolves around Gronkowski, which is fine, but if he gets hurt (which happens), they don't have any other premium weapons. Not selling Edelman short, but we've seen that offense without Gronk, and Brady looks pedestrian. I'm really not sold on their secondary, but it's better than I expected it to be, even though I think Butler is being overrated.

 

They're obviously a really good team, but this is a salary cap league, and every team has flaws. And over the years, the Pats have had roster flaws of one kind or another. Just like everyone else. But Brady and Belichick are the dynamic duo, and they cover over a lot of flaws.

We DID see the offense without Gronk.It was called the Edelman show.

[Superman]

We DID see the offense without Gronk.It was called the Edelman show.

 

Sunday night? Edelman had 6 catches, 50 yards. I can live with that.

 

And that doesn't account for the undeniable force of gravity that Gronk exerts when he's on the field. We bracketed him the entire first half, which makes life easier on the other receivers, including Edelman. They also split Gronk out wide a lot, which is super smart, because that means we have to put one of our best corners out there on him, and it keeps us from dropping multiple defenders over the top of him. 

[LockeDown]

I don't see why we vehemently accuse them of cheating and then turn around and ask why they are so good with mostly unimpressive talent.  We know they deflated the footballs last year and probably before.  The first game of the this season, the Steelers headsets go haywire, Ben and Tomlin make accusations, reports come out about them stealing teams scripted plays from years past, etc.  Joe Montanna says he thinks they cheat and that it is a compliment.   I mean...what does it take for people (their own fans especially) to see that the reason they can make has beens good is because if you know what the other team is going to do and what play they are going to run, even mediocre guys perform well.  The Pats go out of their way to study their opponents extremely well and steal their signals and steal their scripted plays and whatever they can get away with to know what the other team is going to do.  The ultimate in preparation.  I already feel vilified that they are still cheating, but apparently it doesn't matter if nobody can do anything about it.

[RockThatBlue]

The cheating model is not for the colts

[BOTT]

I don't know about that. What have NE coaches done when they have left Brady? Zippo. Most have been a raging disaster. And what was Bill before Brady, a sub .500 coach.

That doesn't mean they aren't good coaches. Nor does it mean Brady isn't the greatest QB of his generation. But when you pair a a great QB with great coaching you get something special.

[BOTT]

Confused why Arians is on that list.. He is damn good with QB's look what he did in AZ last year with the mess they had!! Also wasn't Luck's best year when Arians was de facto HC? (I'm asking)

Because he isn't a good OC. He leaves hurt quarterbacks wherever he goes. Couch ruined his shoulder playing for him in Cleveland, he was fired because Ben was taking a beating in Pittsburgh, not many of the quarterbacks could have survived the shots Luck took his rookie year. And what were the Cardinals playing with last year? A 3rd string QB (Not that he was to blame for Palmers injury).

Unfortunately, the colts replaced with a guy with no resume.

[BOTT]

Over the years, much has been made of TB12's lack of weapons.  Before Gronk and Hernandez, most of the Pat's top receivers came in past their prime.  When the Pat's drafted a receiver, it hardly ever worked out except for TEs.  Branch did nothing in Seattle.  Anyway, here is a list of 'weapons' someone smart compiled for your consideration... 

 

Wes Welker

UDFA

2004

551

Troy Brown

198

1993

332

Deion Branch

65

2002

328

Kevin Faulk

46

1999

310

Rob Gronkowski

42

2010

266

David Givens

253

2002

249

Julian Edelman

232

2009

215

Randy Moss

21

1998

190

Aaron Hernandez

113

2010

177

David Patten

UDFA

1996

157

Ben Watson

32

2004

145

Daniel Graham

21

2002

120

Danny Woodhead

UDFA

2008

92

Shane Vereen

56

2011

81

Christian Fauria

39

1995

79

Brandon Lloyd

124

2003

74

Danny Amendola

UDFA

2008

64

Antowain Smith

23

1997

64

Patrick Pass

239

2000

62

Reche Caldwell

48

2002

61

Corey Dillon

43

1997

52

Sammy Morris

156

2000

49

Jabar Gaffney

33

2002

47

Donte Stallworth

13

2002

47

That has nothing to do with what I said. Plus, I'm well aware of what his weapons have been over the years.

[DougDew]

Why can't the Colts follow the same blue print? Obviously I can't lay it all out but it starts with a franchise QB. Check, we have that.

We can't say you need an all star Oline because they mix and match at will. You don't need star RBs, they make whoever they get a star. WRs? Nothing special. Yes, a great TE helps, but isn't totally necessary.

On D, you apparently don't need the best cover corner in the league. Or high draft picks for that matter.

Lose your all pro NT, no problem. Assistant coaches? Let them come and go.

I could go on, but you get my point.

Barring voodoo, how do they do it every year? More importantly, why can't we?

The Pats O is based upon having a QB that can hit the reciever in the numbers in stride and receivers who are elusive when in space.  Nothing else about their offense is special.  Even Gronk's success is based upon Amendola and Edelmann. 

 

They essentially render a defense's pass rush moot with their quick, accurate, passing.  And they don't even have a deep threat. 

 

If every team adopted their O, the NFL pass rush specialists would be obsolete.

 

I don't think their D is that special.  It would benefit from having better talent in the secondary and at pass rusher, since the rest of the NFL still wants to throw it deep.

[Smonroe]

The Pats O is based upon having a QB that can hit the reciever in the numbers in stride and receivers who are elusive when in space.  Nothing else about their offense is special.  Even Gronk's success is based upon Amendola and Edelmann. 

 

They essentially render a defense's pass rush moot with their quick, accurate, passing.  And they don't even have a deep threat. 

 

If every team adopted their O, the NFL pass rush specialists would be obsolete.

 

I don't think their D is that special.  It would benefit from having better talent in the secondary and at pass rusher, since the rest of the NFL still wants to throw it deep.

They've had a variety of different offenses over the years, but you're right, having an accurate QB makes them all easier for success.

Still, there are more than a few teams with great QBs who haven't been able to do it year after year.

Of course, it all starts with the best coach ever, and maybe his iron will to keep true to his vision and make sure his players do too.

[C0lts088]

Honestly, it's tough to explain. Call it a gut feeling/choice. But then again, weve seen what has happened to the 4 9ers after his departure.....so maybe you're right, I'm must not sold on it

Living in the Bay Area for last 5 years, after 3 games with harbaugh as coach you could most definitely tell a changed team. I even told my long time 49ers fan cousin that the niners are headed places and he didn't believe me.

[JimJaime]

Sunday night? Edelman had 6 catches, 50 yards. I can live with that.

.

That's not a fair assessment. He had almost all of those receptions and yards before he hurt his finger.

That said we have seen the Pats w a hurt or no gronk.. It isn't pretty at all.

[JimJaime]

[quote name="DougDew" post="1209098" timestamp="1445470785

I don't think their D is that special. It would benefit from having better talent in the secondary and at pass rusher, since the rest of the NFL still wants to throw it deep.

[Superman]

That's not a fair assessment. He had almost all of those receptions and yards before he hurt his finger.

That said we have seen the Pats w a hurt or no gronk.. It isn't pretty at all.

 

Meh. The passes he dropped bounced off his chest. I won't totally discount the possibility that the finger was a factor, but I won't be convinced that the only reason Edelman would drop a pass is if his finger is hurt. And we got a couple breakups on passes to Edelman also.

[amfootball]

That doesn't mean they aren't good coaches. Nor does it mean Brady isn't the greatest QB of his generation. But when you pair a a great QB with great coaching you get something special.

I really hope Bill gives us a chance to see him coach post-Brady. Walsh never did, he went to college. And Knoll was never the same after Bradshaw.

[amfootball]

The Ravens have missed some draft picks and had some injuries. They wouldn't have let McPhee walk if they knew Suggs would get hurt, for instance. They never have good receivers, so I'm not surprised they let Torrey Smith walk (plus he got too much money), but missing Steve Smith makes that even worse. I guess they were expecting Pitta back, but he probably won't play ever again, so they're relying on the young TEs. All of their games have been close. 

 

Other teams with these issues are Green Bay, New England, etc. The ones that are doing well have great QBs. Flacco isn't on that level. 

 

Only criticism of Ozzie since 2012 is some missed picks. Not to minimize that, since the Ravens are one of the primary 'build through the draft, don't reach for need, limited free agency' teams, so missing on picks is huge. But Ozzie has been doing this for a long time, has had bad stretches before, but he usually does a good job.

 

I'd love to see Bisciotti get impatient and fired the whole front office, then maybe we could get our hands on Erik de Costa to be our GM. But none of that is gonna happen.

In a weird way, it has hurt the Ravens that they won the SB in '12 because they had to pay Flacco after that. Prior to that season they had offered him between $15-16 mil and he declined and then won the SB with is great playoff run and as you say now they are paying him elite money without having elite talent around him and he can't do what Brady and Rodgers can do to carry the team to victories.

 

It is interesting with Ozzie. He has had some poor draft choices and letting both Smith and Jones go has really hurt them. I really felt like they had to keep one of those guys and they have not come close to replacing Rice either.

[amfootball]

They don't have a good OL and they have a leaky run defense. Their entire offense revolves around Gronkowski, which is fine, but if he gets hurt (which happens), they don't have any other premium weapons. Not selling Edelman short, but we've seen that offense without Gronk, and Brady looks pedestrian. I'm really not sold on their secondary, but it's better than I expected it to be, even though I think Butler is being overrated.

 

They're obviously a really good team, but this is a salary cap league, and every team has flaws. And over the years, the Pats have had roster flaws of one kind or another. Just like everyone else. But Brady and Belichick are the dynamic duo, and they cover over a lot of flaws.

I would also add that many of these same flaws were there last year. Although the secondary was better, the front 7 was not as good. This year they are getting consistent QB pressure which is helping the secondary. Dion Lewis is also better at this point than Vereen was last year so there is that too.

 

This is why I always say this era of the NFL is the hardest era to win consistently because you can't build a powerhouse team on both sides of the ball. You have to pick and choose and then have enough depth to account for injuries as well.

[Lucky Colts Fan]

My guess is that there is not a lot of wasted time in the Pats organization.

 

Belichick is THE guy.  He makes personnel decisions, draft decisions, gameplan decisions, media decisions, etc. etc.

 

I feel like every other team has a group of people trying to do everything that Belichick does by himself.  And anyone that has to deal with lots of meetings in the business world knows how much time is wasted in meetings just trying to come to a decision.

 

Belichick just makes the decisions and they move on the next issue.  Not a lot of wasted time discussing the issue, voting on the issue, and coming to a group conclusion on the issue.

 

Take the Colts for example, how much time do you think Grigson and Pagano had to spend just deciding which guys to draft?  And then we hear about disagreements between the two on personnel decisions.  It sounds like a lot of wasted time that could have been spent on the next issue.

[Superman]

In a weird way, it has hurt the Ravens that they won the SB in '12 because they had to pay Flacco after that. Prior to that season they had offered him between $15-16 mil and he declined and then won the SB with is great playoff run and as you say now they are paying him elite money without having elite talent around him and he can't do what Brady and Rodgers can do to carry the team to victories.

 

It is interesting with Ozzie. He has had some poor draft choices and letting both Smith and Jones go has really hurt them. I really felt like they had to keep one of those guys and they have not come close to replacing Rice either.

 

More important than the amount they gave Flacco is the structure of the contract. It's just now going to get bad. They've probably let other guys walk in anticipation of needing to make room for his increasing cap hits. They also could have given him the $18m/year with less guaranteed money that he wanted prior to 2012.

[tikyle]

This thread would have worked better if you went with the Steelers or Ravens model.  The Patriots model is put the smartest man in the league in charge and ride him to dominance.  That is not a sustainable model.

 

The Steelers/Ravens model (multiple HC's, multiple QB's) is have a strong defense.  Draft defense first. Draft defensive depth.  Draft offense skill positions late.  Have continued success for over a decade (for multiple decades in the Steelers case).

[BOTT]

I really hope Bill gives us a chance to see him coach post-Brady. Walsh never did, he went to college. And Knoll was never the same after Bradshaw.

Don't get me wrong, I believe Brady is the engine behind that past more so than BB. I just don't like what the Colts have surrounded Luck with.....just a bunch of average at best coaches.

[amfootball]

Don't get me wrong, I believe Brady is the engine behind that past more so than BB. I just don't like what the Colts have surrounded Luck with.....just a bunch of average at best coaches.

Sure. I think the team needs some work too. Grigson did not do a very good job with that defense at all. No pass rush at all vs Brady and no coverage either.

[spartancolt]

BB is a preparation king and great tactician..I've not been impressed with his gm skills though.. He will take his own subpar drafts and coach them up to offset what seems to be lackluster talent. To prove this when Brady went down he won 11 games with Cassell. That my friends is brilliant coaching. How many games does Pagano win with Cassell? Lol

[BOTT]

BB is a preparation king and great tactician..I've not been impressed with his gm skills though.. He will take his own subpar drafts and coach them up to offset what seems to be lackluster talent. To prove this when Brady went down he won 11 games with Cassell. That my friends is brilliant coaching. How many games does Pagano win with Cassell? Lol

It wasn't that brilliant. The team had gone 18-1 the year before.....I believe that might indicate the team was talented. But there is a coach who, unlike Belichick, actually got to the playoffs with Matt Cassell.....the legendary Todd Haley.

[GoColts8818]

The Pats model is that they adapt and change over the years.