Article - Colts will regret Richardson trade

[Franklin County]

did you see the blocking assignment that richardson completely missed last night?

Yes I watched the game. One missed block does not make you a bad blocker. Did you see all the blocks the o line missed?

[husker61]

Yes I watched the game. One missed block does not make you a bad blocker. Did you see all the blocks the o line missed?

 

that's not the first one he has missed. i'm not the only one saying this:

 

According to Pro Football Focus, Richardson was +1.5 on the season overall but poor in pass blocking at -1.4.  Last season Richardson was +6.0 overall and -2.6 in pass blocking.  The conclusion is that Trent Richardson will be used in running situations and Ahmad Bradshaw will be used for pass blocking (+6.2 in 2012).

 

http://biguglies.com/2013/09/18/trent-richardson-by-the-numbers/

 

i never heard much about brown's blocking until he missed that one block against miami at the end of the game

[Franklin County]

that's not the first one he has missed. i'm not the only one saying this:

 

According to Pro Football Focus, Richardson was +1.5 on the season overall but poor in pass blocking at -1.4.  Last season Richardson was +6.0 overall and -2.6 in pass blocking.  The conclusion is that Trent Richardson will be used in running situations and Ahmad Bradshaw will be used for pass blocking (+6.2 in 2012).

 

http://biguglies.com/2013/09/18/trent-richardson-by-the-numbers/

 

i never heard much about brown's blocking until he missed that one block against miami at the end of the game

You forgot Browns numbers that's who we were talking about, not Bradshaw.

[Colts_Fan12]

I just like TRich I'm glad he is here but I am sick and tired of peps crappy play calling for him

[YOUR GM]

it wouldn't be just brown. someone else would have been signed, done just as good as richardson, and the colts would have their #1 pick.

 

This concept is what is lost around here. Even if he comes around and plays slightly above average, we still wasted a 1st round pick on a position where we could've gone to free agency and got the same level of production, possibly much better. You don't trade 1st round picks for slightly above average backs, and most certainly not for below average ones (which is what Trent is at this point) And let's not fool ourselves and say that wasn't a "win-now" trade. He was brought in to put us over the top THIS year, and beyond. In that regard, Grigson blew it. 

 

I picture the whole trade playing out like this in my head:

 

Browns GM: "Hey Ryan, it's ___. I'm calling about possibly pursuing a trade with you guys. We're willing to part ways with our young, #3 overall pick from a year ago for a draft pick. In case you haven't figured it out yet, I'm talk about Trent. We're aware of your current predicament with Ballard being lost for the year, and we think we can help you out. I was think along the lines of a mid..

 

 

*Grigson interrupts him*

 

 

Grigson: "A mid 1st round pick for Trent?!?! Shoot, hecks yeah! I was just playing with him on Madden the other night! A 90 overall with 93 speed! You guys are nuts for wanting get rid of him. You got yourself a God **** deal, my friend!  "

 

 

Browns GM: Great! If you'll just sign this paperwork to finalize the deal, we'll be all finished here.

 

 

*Grigson emphatically signs*

 

 

Browns GM: Pleasure doing business with you! And to think, my initial offer, I was only going to ask you for a mid 3rd to 4th round pick for him! You sure are a great guy, Ryan! 

 

 

Grigson: ......     :slaphead: 

 

 

Pagano and the rest of Colts nation: Uuuuuuhhhhhhh....Great move by  general manager, Grigson! ...........

 

[Franklin County]

This concept is what is lost around here. Even if he comes around and plays slightly above average, we still wasted a 1st round pick on a position where we could've gone to free agency and got the same level of production, possibly much better. You don't trade 1st round picks for slightly above average backs, and most certainly not for below average ones (which is what Trent is at this point) And let's not fool ourselves and say that wasn't a "win-now" trade. He was brought in to put us over the top THIS year, and beyond. In that regard, Grigson blew it. 

 

I picture the whole trade playing out like this in my head:

Wow good to see you got this all figured out in your head

[House]

Wow good to see you got this all figured out in your head

1st rounders are completely overrated outside the top 10. A late first, like in the 20s presumably where we will be picking, is equivalent to a second rounder. I'm more than comfortable in investing that type of pick in Richardson. Especially considering we were, and are, thin at the RB position.

[YOUR GM]

1st rounders are completely overrated outside the top 10. A late first, like in the 20s presumably where we will be picking, is equivalent to a second rounder. I'm more than comfortable in investing that type of pick in Richardson. Especially considering we were, and are, thin at the RB position.

Not buying it. If Tom Brady could be had in the 6th round when he was drafted, I'm SURE we could find someone with more value than Trent (and his 2 yards per carry) at the bottom of the 1st, with solid scouting

[Blueblazes]

With 3.6 ypc in his rookie year, 3.4 last year and 3.0 this year, it's pretty obvious that TRich has been disappointing, yes, it's hardly any way around it. I do think draft picks are overrated, however and I don't mind us giving up a 1st rounder at all, if the player produces at least above average. There has been a lot of rationallizing, but the bottomline is that he averaged 3.5 ypc with Browns and 3.0 with the Colts. Honestly, there really can't be many defensive coordinators that feel they need to stack the line or put 8 in the box when TRich is the game anymore (and really probably not for the past 5 games). However, we still have the 2nd half of the season to play, and TRich could still make a contribution to a great Colt season. I will wait to make my opinion final on him until the end of the season. But yes, for whatever reason, rationallizing aside, if he can't get to atleast 4.0 ypc, over the last 8 games of the season, I would say we over-invested.

[dw49]

Not buying it. If Tom Brady could be had in the 6th round when he was drafted, I'm SURE we could find someone with more value than Trent (and his 2 yards per carry) at the bottom of the 1st, with solid scouting

 

 

No worries .. we still have our 2014 6th.

[House]

Not buying it. If Tom Brady could be had in the 6th round when he was drafted, I'm SURE we could find someone with more value than Trent (and his 2 yards per carry) at the bottom of the 1st, with solid scouting

So you just want to find the unicorn in every draft? Sure why not lol.

If your expectation is that a Tom Brady could be found in any round why would investing a first matter? Because if you can find a Brady in any round. All rounds are equal no?

[Gavin]

1st rounders are completely overrated outside the top 10. A late first, like in the 20s presumably where we will be picking, is equivalent to a second rounder. I'm more than comfortable in investing that type of pick in Richardson. Especially considering we were, and are, thin at the RB position.

Depends on who is available outside the top 10.....Guys like:

 

Kyle Van Noy

Allen Robinson

Gabe Jackson

Cyril Richarson

Mike Evans

Khalil Mack

Louis Nix

Jordan Matthews

 

Are all expected late 1st to early 2nd round picks at this point , They would all bring more value then a running back regardless of where that running back went previously in the draft unless he was the next AP or Barry Sanders and even then I'd probably still take several of the guys on the list above given the "life expectancy" of running backs in the nfl, Barring injuries those players likely make impacts longer then 5-6-7 at most years in the NFL.

[Bbswatching]

I have been one of the guys saying.  Give him time he will get better. Well he has been with the team long enough he should be doing better.  Im starting to lean towards a waist of our 1st round pick.  I really wanted him to be what we hoped he would.  But 20-40 yards a game just aint gonna cut it.  

[House]

Depends on who is available outside the top 10.....Guys like:

Kyle Van Noy

Allen Robinson

Gabe Jackson

Cyril Richarson

Mike Evans

Khalil Mack

Louis Nix

Jordan Matthews

Are all expected late 1st to early 2nd round picks at this point , They would all bring more value then a running back regardless of where that running back went previously in the draft unless he was the next AP or Barry Sanders and even then I'd probably still take several of the guys on the list above given the "life expectancy" of running backs in the nfl, Barring injuries those players likely make impacts longer then 5-6-7 at most years in the NFL.

All those are based on the assumption that A) Any of those players are who the coaching staff wants, as almost all the mock drafts for this past draft were completely wrong. And B) Who knows who is going to be available when it comes time to draft. Maybe we move up, maybe we move down. Pretending the draft is a science is a folly at best.

[House]

I have been one of the guys saying. Give him time he will get better. Well he has been with the team long enough he should be doing better. Im starting to lean towards a waist of our 1st round pick. I really wanted him to be what we hoped he would. But 20-40 yards a game just aint gonna cut it.

You're not a patient person are you lol?

[Gavin]

All those are based on the assumption that A) Any of those players are who the coaching staff wants, as almost all the mock drafts for this past draft were completely wrong. And B) Who knows who is going to be available when it comes time to draft. Maybe we move up, maybe we move down. Pretending the draft is a science is a folly at best.

I pay little attention to any mock drafts outside of Mayocks, i may look at some but I dont take them as serious other then his. But with what we know now which is very little as you state with those players that we have available this early that I have seen to be expected (at this point) to go around the bottom of the 1st or top of the 2nd I think any one of those players would have made for better value, Thats not taking into account Richardson performances as a Colt because a)its not all on him.......some is....and b)The value of the rb position and "life expectancy"

[YOUR GM]

So you just want to find the unicorn in every draft? Sure why not lol.

If your expectation is that a Tom Brady could be found in any round why would investing a first matter? Because if you can find a Brady in any round. All rounds are equal no?

You completely missed the point. I'm just saying mitigating the value of a high draft pick is not a way to justify the trade. If there's elite talent in the 6th round of some drafts, surely there's elite talent in the late 1st. And even more surely, there's a good chance there's talent better than Trent

[House]

You completely missed the point. I'm just saying mitigating the value of a high draft pick is not a way to justify the trade. If there's elite talent in the 6th round of some drafts, surely there's elite talent in the late 1st. And even more surely, there's a good chance there's talent better than Trent

Your point works completely against what you're getting at though. If there's talent everywhere in the draft, then acting like 1s are premium makes no sense.

Trent was taken with a 1. It's a crapshoot. Just because you're drafted high doesn't equate to success. So taking a gamble on a 1 isn't a sin. And that's all this move was. If it works it's a steal. If it doesn't a late 1 isn't going to kill us.

[YOUR GM]

Your point works completely against what you're getting at though. If there's talent everywhere in the draft, then acting like 1s are premium makes no sense.

Trent was taken with a 1. It's a crapshoot. Just because you're drafted high doesn't equate to success. So taking a gamble on a 1 isn't a sin. And that's all this move was. If it works it's a steal. If it doesn't a late 1 isn't going to kill us.

I don't see how that goes against my point?? I'm saying there's value in every pick, not that every pick has the same amount of value. Stop twisting my words. Obviously you're more likely to find talent the higher the pick is. I wouldn't trade a 1 for many running backs at all. Let alone an underachieving one

[House]

I don't see how that goes against my point?? I'm saying there's value in every pick, not that every pick has the same amount of value. Stop twisting my words. Obviously you're more likely to find talent the higher the pick is. I wouldn't trade a 1 for many running backs at all. Let alone an underachieving one

twisting your words. Are you serious?

Are you forgetting why you quoted me in the first place? Because I said that 1st round picks are overrated. Then your response is there is value in every pick. So obviously if there is value in every pick, 1s are not the end all be all.

The odds go up the higher you pick, but 1st round busts happen all the time. Every draft. 1st aren't a guarantee of anything especially late ones. So taking a gamble is no big deal in this situation.

[YOUR GM]

twisting your words. Are you serious?

Are you forgetting why you quoted me in the first place? Because I said that 1st round picks are overrated. Then your response is there is value in every pick. So obviously if there is value in every pick, 1s are not the end all be all.

The odds go up the higher you pick, but 1st round busts happen all the time. Every draft. 1st aren't a guarantee of anything especially late ones. So taking a gamble is no big deal in this situation.

So your saying that because there's value in every pick, that somehow brings down the value of a higher pick? That makes no sense. You're making the mistake of assuming that because busts happen every year, it somehow means value of the entire draft pool is equal. If that were the case, everyone would trade away their high picks all the time. There's a reason the majority of franchises place more value in draft picks than they do actual players. You're also ignoring the value of a 1st round pick, even if we don't actually use it. We could've traded that pick for a player who can actually produce right now.

You can try to find as many different ways to justify the trade that you want, but the bottom line is, he's not playing like a 1st, 2nd or 3rd round draft pick right now, and the trade is not paying off. You're absolutely right that 1st round picks can be busts. Trent is a primary example of such. The bad part is, we had NFL game film of him and still made the mistake of biting on a bust

[Warhorse]

No worries .. we still have our 2014 6th.

Now THAT was funny.

[House]

So your saying that because there's value in every pick, that somehow brings down the value of a higher pick? That makes no sense. You're making the mistake of assuming that because busts happen every year, it somehow means value of the entire draft pool is equal. If that were the case, everyone would trade away their high picks all the time. There's a reason the majority of franchises place more value in draft picks than they do actual players. You're also ignoring the value of a 1st round pick, even if we don't actually use it. We could've traded that pick for a player who can actually produce right now.

You can try to find as many different ways to justify the trade that you want, but the bottom line is, he's not playing like a 1st, 2nd or 3rd round draft pick right now, and the trade is not paying off. You're absolutely right that 1st round picks can be busts. Trent is a primary example of such. The bad part is, we had NFL game film of him and still made the mistake of biting on a bust

No. What I'm saying is that the draft is a crap shoot every year, and if you aren't picking in the top 10 more likely than not your picks will be highly hit or miss. The early round of the first is where all the "sure fire" players are. From there on it comes down to the player, and the team if someone is going to succeed.

When it comes to late 1st rounders, it's essentially drafting 2-3rd rounders, and it becomes much of a gamble anyways. Thus this drama about it being a number 1 pick is so overblown because people hate 1s we draft all the time. Who knows if the player drafted would even be better than Trent. You don't know. I don't know. So acting like it was so horrible to gamble on Trent is beyond silly to me.

If you so fundamentally disagree? Good for you lol. Don't quote me then. I'm not making excuses. I'm explaining why I don't feel excuses need to be made, because I don't believe a mistake was made like you do. But don't engage me and start crying that I'm twisting words when no such action took place. Either move on from my posts, or agree to disagree.

[NewEra]

Not buying it. If Tom Brady could be had in the 6th round when he was drafted, I'm SURE we could find someone with more value than Trent (and his 2 yards per carry) at the bottom of the 1st, with solid scouting

.

Seriously? That's peoples problem. For every Tom Brady. There's a whole slew of back ups and guys that don't make it. For every Foster there's ton and tons of backs who don't make it or are career back ups. You guys think cause _____ made it everyone can find backs or qb's in later rounds or I drafted that make it. Doesn't work like that.

[dw49]

Now THAT was funny.

 

 

Ahhh .. these whiners drive me nuts. Grigson is a GM that isn't afraid to make a move to improve the team. V Davis was a great deal for the 24th pick in round two of last year's draft. Maybe this deal will not be as good. That's life...

 

No. What I'm saying is that the draft is a crap shoot every year, and if you aren't picking in the top 10 more likely than not your picks will be highly hit or miss. The early round of the first is where all the "sure fire" players are. From there on it comes down to the player, and the team if someone is going to succeed.

When it comes to late 1st rounders, it's essentially drafting 2-3rd rounders, and it becomes much of a gamble anyways. Thus this drama about it being a number 1 pick is so overblown because people hate 1s we draft all the time. Who knows if the player drafted would even be better than Trent. You don't know. I don't know. So acting like it was so horrible to gamble on Trent is beyond silly to me.

If you so fundamentally disagree? Good for you lol. Don't quote me then. I'm not making excuses. I'm explaining why I don't feel excuses need to be made, because I don't believe a mistake was made like you do. But don't engage me and start crying that I'm twisting words when no such action took place. Either move on from my posts, or agree to disagree.

 

 

Yep ... you got it. Couldn't agree more

[LockeDown]

There's another point to be made.  What's done is done and we have to move on.  This team has held on to a lot worse players than Trent Richardson, so I expect us to hang onto him for a while and give him a real chance and not just half a season.  I don't even think a season is enough.  The threads talking about how we can better use him make sense, but threads talking about how we got shafted are a waste of energy.

[Gabriel Alexander Morillo]

I felt like Richardson had a fairly decent game on limited carries actually, Only 2 - runs on 8 carries, He had some ups and downs.

1st run of the game for Richardson- Reed held outside contain forcing Richardson to keep it to the inside where Watt and Smith quickly disposed of Mcglynn and Thornton to make the plat-Bad blocking on that play

2nd run- Richardson gained 7 yards following Castonzo on a lead block and hurdling the Corner diving at his feet on the play

3rd run- This is the type of run Im talking about from him-he got 4 yards on the play after running into the back of Cherilus who did not get a good block, But on the play Brooks Reed over pursuited and Havili made the block on the play, The overpursuit left a gaping hole on the play but he kept it inside and turned what would have been a significantly bigger gain into a 4 yarder...although to his credit that went for a 1st down

4th-He kept the run to the inside when I thought he should have bounced in out right- He gained 3 yards on the play and I'd take it, it was a tough run where he kind of snaked through a small opening but I think that he could have got around the right end

5-It looked like he was following the lead block of Havili who got stood up on the play so he ended up jump cutting and appeared to want to cut it back left where Sharpton was waiting on the play, He appeared to almost come to a complete stop on the play after where he was initially looked to be going was plugged up, at that point it appeared cutting it around the rright end would have been the better choice

6-was a run out of a power formation behind Cherilus and a pulling Thornton that went for 5 yards, it was effective on a 1st down play, good run

7-A run up the middle(which looked to be designed to go behind RG but Watt foiled that idea) where Watt just disposed of Castonzo very quickly and got into the backfield stuffing Richardson for -1 yards....Just poor run blocking on that play

8-Not a good play call in my opinion on a 2nd and 11-I think you try to throw it for short yardage, a play that would be the equivalent of a run play but from a pass giving a short yardage situation on 3rd down where we could have tried to run it for the 1st down, Now the Texans likely still take the timeout after the gain to stop the clock but if you gain some good yards on that 2nd down play then make it much much tougher for them to try to stop us on 3rd down, Just my personal opinion, ya go for a kill shot on that play and get the 1st, if not no harm no foul, ya got another down to work with

I completely agree with you. Some people were calling me crazy but I knew Trent hqd some opportunities to bounce it out to the right instead of following the design.

IMO those are the types of runs that matshawyn, Morris, ap, qnd especially McCoy make and that's what makes them elite. He's so close I can taste it.

[Superman]

No. What I'm saying is that the draft is a crap shoot every year, and if you aren't picking in the top 10 more likely than not your picks will be highly hit or miss. The early round of the first is where all the "sure fire" players are. From there on it comes down to the player, and the team if someone is going to succeed.

When it comes to late 1st rounders, it's essentially drafting 2-3rd rounders, and it becomes much of a gamble anyways. Thus this drama about it being a number 1 pick is so overblown because people hate 1s we draft all the time. Who knows if the player drafted would even be better than Trent. You don't know. I don't know. So acting like it was so horrible to gamble on Trent is beyond silly to me.

If you so fundamentally disagree? Good for you lol. Don't quote me then. I'm not making excuses. I'm explaining why I don't feel excuses need to be made, because I don't believe a mistake was made like you do. But don't engage me and start crying that I'm twisting words when no such action took place. Either move on from my posts, or agree to disagree.

 

Here's where I disagree. Forgive me for jumping in, by the way...

 

I don't think the end of the first round is a crap shoot. I think GMs start to get cute down there, making decisions that don't really make much sense. But there's a TON of talent from 20-32. Especially in last year's draft, because the first half of the first round was so heavy with trench guys, so there were a ton of skill guys still available. The 2014 draft figures to be super heavy with skill guys, so there will be highly rated talent available at the end of the first round again.

 

Double trouble is that we gave up our first rounder for a running back. True, Richardson is a highly rated guy, and I still think he can be an every down back. And the move is really saving our butts, given the injuries. But he's still a running back, and the value for backs isn't there like it used to be. Even if you call yourself a running team, you use multiple backs, and your success will ultimately be determined by your ability to make plays in the passing game. So there's not first round value, even for a dynamic back, even at the end of the first round. 

 

That was always my problem with this move. I get that we needed a back, and I get that Richardson can be THE GUY moving forward. His production hasn't been there so far, so that initial nervousness is turning into disappointment, but he can still be a really good weapon for us. But even then, he's playing running back, and we still don't have a first rounder next year. I expect our front office to make good decisions at the end of the first round, so to me, that's a really good player we're not drafting. Not a pick we can just write off as being a 50/50 proposition.

[Jim H.]

Let's see.  TR got sort of stuffed along with the ENTIRE team in the first half.  Second half...playing catch up. Running?  Not so much.  He shows flashes - I believe those will translate to absolute bolts as the second half begins and continues on to the playoffs.  We have to believe the coaches are working with him, and will bring him along.

 

That is all.  :^)

[Ohio Colt]

If you want to make that argument I wouldn't quote a stooge from PFT.

 

there is no argument to be made. The math doesn't lie.

[BOTT]

there is no argument to be made. The math doesn't lie.

Stats and football can be very misleading.

There are various arguments that can be made as to why he is under performing.....not that I agree with them.

[Ohio Colt]

Stats and football can be very misleading.

There are various arguments that can be made as to why he is under performing.....not that I agree with them.

 

I don't think its very misleading... he looks average and his stats say he's below average. Outside of Indy where he's getting the undying support of some, people regard him as an average player and are very concerned. It's okay to admit that.

[Ohio Colt]

Let's see.  TR got sort of stuffed along with the ENTIRE team in the first half.  Second half...playing catch up. Running?  Not so much.  He shows flashes - I believe those will translate to absolute bolts as the second half begins and continues on to the playoffs.  We have to believe the coaches are working with him, and will bring him along.

 

That is all.  :^)

 

He doesn't show a lot of flashes though. That's the thing. I mean, the screen play was awesome - thats how he should be used in this offense, as more of a receiver, especially with Reggie out.

 

But as a whole, he has fewer 10 yard runs than almost every back in the league since he's entered it.

[NewEra]

He doesn't show a lot of flashes though. That's the thing. I mean, the screen play was awesome - thats how he should be used in this offense, as more of a receiver, especially with Reggie out.

But as a whole, he has fewer 10 yard runs than almost every back in the league since he's entered it.

Cause why? Oh yeah PEP choses to run him our if a power formation. The formation that our line does no excel or open up holes for. I don't really get why you are so insistent to throw him under the bus or want him to fail. He is a Colts now. Time to deal with it and out him in the best position to succeed.

[BOTT]

I don't think its very misleading... he looks average and his stats say he's below average. Outside of Indy where he's getting the undying support of some, people regard him as an average player and are very concerned. It's okay to admit that.

I said he was ordinary the day the trade was made. I hated it. But I do think he can used in a way that will improve his yard per carry...and using him more in the passing game would seem to be wise.

Really, I just hate PFT

[NewEra]

I said he was ordinary the day the trade was made. I hated it. But I do think he can used in a way that will improve his yard per carry...and using him more in the passing game would seem to be wise.

Really, I just hate PFT

Need to use him like the pack use Lacey. Also, how Lynch runs for Seattle. I saw more stretch and off tackle runs. Where he can go, make one cut and be gone.

[Superman]

Need to use him like the pack use Lacey. Also, how Lynch runs for Seattle. I saw more stretch and off tackle runs. Where he can go, make one cut and be gone.

 

Yeah, talk about a big plodder, that's Eddie Lacy. But the Packers run draws and sweeps for him over and over again, out of spread sets. I don't know why we don't do that for Richardson.

[Ohio Colt]

Cause why? Oh yeah PEP choses to run him our if a power formation. The formation that our line does no excel or open up holes for. I don't really get why you are so insistent to throw him under the bus or want him to fail. He is a Colts now. Time to deal with it and out him in the best position to succeed.

 

Dude he is like any other player to me, I am being objective in my observation of him and I felt the same way when he was in Cleveland (I saw him a lot then). He is not a good running back as of yet. I am not hating on the guy just to hate on him. Its not like he stole my GF or anything. I just don't think he's very good and in almost 2 seasons theres been nothing to prove me wrong. We have a very good run blocking line.

[Ohio Colt]

I said he was ordinary the day the trade was made. I hated it. But I do think he can used in a way that will improve his yard per carry...and using him more in the passing game would seem to be wise.

Really, I just hate PFT

I am a Richardson fan because he wears our laundry. I hope we find a way to get better production too.

[dudeski]

Will there come a day when people judge play on the field instead of stats