Polian And The Draft

[John Waylon]

Let me first start off by saying that I am one of the first to bash Bill Polian when it comes to the handling of our offensive line through the draft and free agency. The O-line, behind Peyton, is our most important unit. Peyton’s production depends on their production. Peyton has done a great job in the past few years with his abilities to cover up for their short-comings, but had our line been better and Manning didn’t have to make so many hot reads, I’d wager his stats all around would be much, much better.

And it’s not really unfair to criticize Polian for his handling of the situation as he has said himself that he deserves blame for the situation. But then he turns around and does things like keeping guys like Jeff Linkenbach, Mike Pollak, and, until recently, Jamey Richard and neglecting to attempt to add some serviceable veterans to our line… It’s highly frustrating.

All of that aside, though, I am here to try and sort through some of the Polian debate, specifically the draft side. I’ll start with the issue that seems to be the most prevalent these days when it comes to Polian and the draft:

First Round Draft Busts

Since Polian joined the Colts in 1998, here is a list of first round draft picks: (excluding 2011 for obvious reasons)

1998: Peyton Manning

1999: Edgerrin James

2000: Rob Morris

2001: Reggie Wayne

2002: Dwight Freeney

2003: Dallas Clark

2004: Bob Sanders

2005: Marlin Jackson

2006: Joseph Addai

2007: Anthony Gonzalez

2008: Tony Ugoh (Ugoh was taken in the 2nd round of the 2007 draft, but since we traded our 2008 first round pick to trade up for him that qualifies him as a first round pick in my opinion.)

2009: Donald Brown

2010: Jerry Hughes

That’s quite a list, really. 7 of 13 have gone to the Pro-Bowl. Up until 2007 we were used to getting significant use out of our first round picks. Since then, though, it’s safe to say we’ve been disappointed with what we’ve ended up with.

So how do we interpret this list above?

Well, first, let’s think about something quickly… How many other teams have made 7 of 13 first round picks Pro-Bowlers in that time frame? Honestly, I doubt any did. I don’t want to do the homework to confirm that for the obvious reasons, but I think it’s a safe bet to assume such. I doubt many teams have had such a run in NFL history…

So that, to me, begs the question was it skill, or just luck? That is hard to determine. No doubt the NFL draft is an extreme combination of both. Sometimes home runs strike out, and strike outs turn into home runs. The NFL draft is a tricky beast to master, and no matter how good anyone ever gets at it, there will never be a true master of the draft. Not even a man who drafts 7 Pro-Bowlers in 13 attempts.

The fact that Polian had the run he did in that timeframe, I think, leads some fans to give him too much credit. There is a sense that if Polain picked him, he’s great. He can’t be a dud, and to assume and opine otherwise is near blasphemy and should be punished.

On the flipside of that coin, though, some take a look at our last 5 number 1 picks and say “Well Polian is just awful! He’s old, he needs to retire!” To me, they are letting recent history speak too loudly of a largely good record.

So what then should be the final verdict on Bill Polian in the first round of the NFL draft since he became Indianapolis Colts President?

I think it’s entirely unfair to give him any less than a high passing grade… Maybe it was luck, maybe it was skill, maybe it was fate, but whatever it is, he has been more successful in the first round than he has not, despite recent history. Is the recent trends of 1st round picks alarming? To an extent, yes, but he’s still over the 50% success rate, and by god that’s worth something.

Outside the first round he’s made his fair share of good picks as well… I mean here are notable names drafted outside the first round by Polian:

Marcus Washington (2)

Idrees Bashir (2)

Mike Doss (2)

Kelvin Hayden (2)

Pat Angerer (2)

Jerraud Powers (3)

Donald Strickland (3)

Freddie Kiaho (3)

Jason David (4)

Matt Giordano (4)

Clint Session (4)

Jacob Tamme (4)

Ryan Diem (4)

David Thornton (4)

Austin Collie (4)

Jake Scott (5)

Robert Mathis (5)

Tyjuan Hagler (5)

Charlie Johnson (6)

Antoine Bethea (6)

Cato June (6)

Pierre Garçon (6)

TJ Rushing (7)

Rick DeMulling (7)

Pat McAfee (7)

Kavell Conner (7)

All of those names have stepped in at some time for us and been effective when we needed them to be. There’s even some names not on that list that easily could be. And then you have to take into account, after all of this, how many undrafted rookie free agent’s we’ve brought in and made good use of. I couldn’t find a list of UDFA’s, but there have been more than a fair share of good one’s through here through the Polian years…

One thing I’ve thought for a while now but never really expressed is how hard it is becoming to build a team through the draft with the irreverence that we have. There is no data to support this theory, but I believe that draft “busts” are becoming more and more common. These players leave college, and for whatever reason, it seems their success rate in the NFL is diminishing from top to bottom.

So it makes the draft especially dangerous for a team like us… If more and more players coming into the NFL and onto our team via the draft aren’t going to transition to this level, it’s going to make the way we do things much harder, and make a great draft even rarer than it is now.

So in the end, when you think about how Bill Polian has built this team through the draft, you have to admit he’s done a pretty darn good job of it. I understand that our recent drafts have been pretty mediocre, and while that’s cause for a bit of concern, it’s also the way the system works. Could they continue to be sub-par? Sure. But they could also turn out exceptionally well, you just never know.

Ideally, the best way to build a team is a combination of both the draft, and free agency. Draft some good players, and sign some good low profile players that way when you draft a guy who just doesn’t work out it doesn’t immediately effect you.

But for a team who has built largely through the draft, Bill Polian should get a high passing grade.

As for anything else he does? Well, that’s debatable, but that’s not what this thread is for… I just wanted to take a kind of in-depth look at our drafts in the Polian years and hopefully dispel some of the notion that he’s not near as good as he’s cracked up to be.

As far as this year’s draft goes, I think this may turn into one of his better classes. I think Costanzo is eventually going to work out and be a well rounded LT. Drake Nevis and Delone Carter are already showing they can play. If Ijalana turns out to be a great guard, or even just a decent guard, then there’s no way to call this draft anything but a raging success.

But that’s the thing about the draft: You just never know. It’s not an exact science.

[ruksak]

One would be foolish to argue the success we've had in the draft.

My issue, from a team building standpoint is, these questionable first round picks over the last several years have not been complemented by veteran FA acquisitions. Too much gambling and not enough banking.

There has been a litany of top-shelf O-line and D-line veteran FA's available over the last 5 years, yet we choose to gamble on future development prospects. As we know, both of these units are still unstable and punched full of holes.

[John Waylon]

One would be foolish to argue the success we've had in the draft.

My issue, from a team building standpoint is, these questionable first round picks over the last several years have not been complemented by veteran FA acquisitions. Too much gambling and not enough banking.

There has been a litany of top-shelf O-line and D-line veteran FA's available over the last 5 years, yet we choose to gamble on future development prospects. As we know, both of these units are still unstable and punched full of holes.

I think, with Chris Polian taking more of the hands on role, we're going to see more FA signings. Not going out and signing top dollar superstars, but decent players.

Like I said, I think the draft is becoming more and more unstable from a talent perspective... I think in 10 years you will be able to find some good players in the draft, but it will be totally impossible to build through the draft as we have done since 98.

College football has just become too different from the NFL. These college guys learn to play in gimmick formations like the wildcat or the pistol and play gimmicky college football, and here in the NFL that stuff just doesn't work.

I also think that, due to NCAA sanctions on practices and team conduct, players come to the NFL physically and mentally weaker. These players aren't forced to try as hard in college as they should be, and they come to the NFL and don't try as hard as they need to because that's going way beyond anywhere they've been before, and at that point in their development they're just not cut out for it.

[byrddawg]

Wow!! You do have an opinion. Bill Polian is the best, but not perfect. I think before you level all the criticism and evaluation. Take a look at 32 other teams in the NFL and tell me who has done better. It is a team sport. You concentrated on the negative. Jeff Saturday is the second most valuable Colt and proves it every day of his career.

[Blue Horseshoe]

1998 Robert Edwards / Tebucky Jones

1999 Damien Woody (Pro Bowl) / Andy Katzenmoyer

2000 No Pick

2001 Richard Seymour (Pro Bowl)

2002 Daniel Graham

2003 Ty Warren (Pro Bowl)

2004 Vince Wilfork (Pro Bowl) / Benjamin Watson

2005 Logan Mankins (Pro Bowl)

2006 Laurence Maroney

2007 Brandon Meriweather (Pro Bowl)

2008 Jerod Mayo (Pro Bowl)

2009 No Pick

2010 Devin McCourty (Pro Bowl)

8 of 14 first round picks since 1998 went to Pro Bowls

7 of 10 in the Belichick era which included 2 years with no pick

Compare the lists after 2004

[ruksak]

1998 Robert Edwards / Tebucky Jones

1999 Damien Woody (Pro Bowl) / Andy Katzenmoyer

2000 No Pick

2001 Richard Seymour (Pro Bowl)

2002 Daniel Graham

2003 Ty Warren (Pro Bowl)

2004 Vince Wilfork (Pro Bowl) / Benjamin Watson

2005 Logan Mankins (Pro Bowl)

2006 Laurence Maroney

2007 Brandon Meriweather (Pro Bowl)

2008 Jerod Mayo (Pro Bowl)

2009 No Pick

2010 Devin McCourty (Pro Bowl)

8 of 14 first round picks since 1998 went to Pro Bowls

7 of 10 in the Belichick era which included 2 years with no pick

Compare the lists after 2004

Good job.

Add to that the fact that the Pats haven't been shy about adding FA talent to compliment the draft picks.

NE has 3 championships, Indy has 1. However it is hard to complain much when one considers how many games we've won over the time period in question.

But can our franchising strategy sustain? Look at NE this year; they have that championship gleam coming out of a drastically shortened preseason. They lost their franchise HoF QB for the entire season a few years ago and still won 11 games.

Conversely, Indy loses their QB and the whole thing looks a mess. Frankly I think even with Manning, we may not have made the playoffs. It really is that bad.

[Steagles]

I think Polian is a genius in the draft, but he has tailed off in previous years, picking Brown and Ugoh and Jerry.

[IndyTrav]

The Colts have had 52 draft picks from 2005 to now(although 2010 is still up in the air):

Pro Bowlers-

Joesph Addai- 2007

Antoine Bethea 2007, 2009

Starters:

Hayden CB-2005 2nd Rd

Addai RB- 2006 1st Rd* Pro Bowl

Bethea FS- 2006 6th Rd* Pro Bowl

Charlie Johnson OL- 2006 6th rd

Pollak OL- 2008 2nd RD

Garcon WR- 2008 6th rd

Powers DB- 2009 3rd rd

Collie WR- 2009 4th rd

A starting NFL Safety, an avg RB, 2 Avg DBs, and 2 avg OL.

That is BRUTAL, not bad, not OK, but BRUTAL.

[doogansquest]

Good job.

Add to that the fact that the Pats haven't been shy about adding FA talent to compliment the draft picks.

NE has 3 championships, Indy has 1. However it is hard to complain much when one considers how many games we've won over the time period in question.

But can our franchising strategy sustain? Look at NE this year; they have that championship gleam coming out of a drastically shortened preseason. They lost their franchise HoF QB for the entire season a few years ago and still won 11 games.

Conversely, Indy loses their QB and the whole thing looks a mess. Frankly I think even with Manning, we may not have made the playoffs. It really is that bad.

But since 2005, despite what many consider the starting point of our "lesser" drafts, as well as the starting point for New England's foray into Free Agency, who has had the better playoff record? Who has held the better head-to-head?

Oh, and McCourty was cut for being a bum after just two years.

When people say, "questionable" first round picks, no one was questioning them at the time, given which needs seemed apparent. It also suggests that Polian knew better, but picked anyway.

Hindsight makes us look more smarter....derp.

[jbaron04]

what u need to do is look at the colts picks since 2005 and see how many of them our on the team

[Rich Cannon]

One would be foolish to argue the success we've had in the draft.

My issue, from a team building standpoint is, these questionable first round picks over the last several years have not been complemented by veteran FA acquisitions. Too much gambling and not enough banking.

There has been a litany of top-shelf O-line and D-line veteran FA's available over the last 5 years, yet we choose to gamble on future development prospects. As we know, both of these units are still unstable and punched full of holes.

This is exactly my same issue, lets face it. Peyton Manning like talent at the qb position doesnt come around everyday. We have a 4 year window to win a superbowl. I also believe the Colts organization should learn from this lesson of being without Peyton Manning. To have a capable backup in place I.E Matt Flynn, Brad Hoyer, just in case an injury happens so we dont have to scramble around and find a qb before the season. Coaching and management knew Painter wasnt a capable backup. Siting around and assuming Manning will save the day everytime is foolish. As Colts fans finally found out that injuries happen(Peyton Manning). I know you saw this board of all the colts fans who swore up and down Peyton wouild play week 1, now sit back with their hearts crushed. And it is unfair for us to come down on Kerry Collins who comes in with Virtually 2 weeks to learn an offensive system. We have been spoiled fans for years by Mannings leadership, ablities and great commercials :manning: . I am a realistic colts fan, all i ask is that Coahcing staff and management do a better job of prepping for these events by having capable back ups abd not waiting till the last minute.

[jskinnz]

John Waylon - excellent topic and discussion.

I seem to recall Polian talking about a study he did about 1st round draft picks and if I remember correctly, he said that the average hit rate on player contributing to his team was 55%. In other words, 45% of the drafted 1st rounders in the period of time he studied, were considered to be busts.

If that is the case and you look at Polian's drafts from 1998 to 2006, he had an amazing run of success. Clearly since 2007 that run has stopped although I would argue it is not accurate to call Gonzo a bust if the reason for his lack of production is injury related. Regardless though, the drafts from 2007 on have really hampered this team.

But there are some who believe that the game has passed Polian by. I think that is just absolute nonsense. He did not all of the sudden forget how to scout and draft. I think it is just the odds evening things out. Not every pick can be a home run. The result is a team dependent on aging players with a lack of talent behind them. I would be shocked if they open the 2012 season with their 2007, 2008, 2009, & 2010 first draft picks on the roster. That is a tough stretch to overcome even with a completely healthy Manning.

[ColtsExtreme]

Let me first start off by saying that I am one of the first to bash Bill Polian when it comes to the handling of our offensive line through the draft and free agency. The O-line, behind Peyton, is our most important unit. Peyton’s production depends on their production. Peyton has done a great job in the past few years with his abilities to cover up for their short-comings, but had our line been better and Manning didn’t have to make so many hot reads, I’d wager his stats all around would be much, much better.

And it’s not really unfair to criticize Polian for his handling of the situation as he has said himself that he deserves blame for the situation. But then he turns around and does things like keeping guys like Jeff Linkenbach, Mike Pollak, and, until recently, Jamey Richard and neglecting to attempt to add some serviceable veterans to our line… It’s highly frustrating.

All of that aside, though, I am here to try and sort through some of the Polian debate, specifically the draft side. I’ll start with the issue that seems to be the most prevalent these days when it comes to Polian and the draft:

First Round Draft Busts

Since Polian joined the Colts in 1998, here is a list of first round draft picks: (excluding 2011 for obvious reasons)

1998: Peyton Manning

1999: Edgerrin James

2000: Rob Morris

2001: Reggie Wayne

2002: Dwight Freeney

2003: Dallas Clark

2004: Bob Sanders

2005: Marlin Jackson

2006: Joseph Addai

2007: Anthony Gonzalez

2008: Tony Ugoh (Ugoh was taken in the 2nd round of the 2007 draft, but since we traded our 2008 first round pick to trade up for him that qualifies him as a first round pick in my opinion.)

2009: Donald Brown

2010: Jerry Hughes

That’s quite a list, really. 7 of 13 have gone to the Pro-Bowl. Up until 2007 we were used to getting significant use out of our first round picks. Since then, though, it’s safe to say we’ve been disappointed with what we’ve ended up with.

So how do we interpret this list above?

Well, first, let’s think about something quickly… How many other teams have made 7 of 13 first round picks Pro-Bowlers in that time frame? Honestly, I doubt any did. I don’t want to do the homework to confirm that for the obvious reasons, but I think it’s a safe bet to assume such. I doubt many teams have had such a run in NFL history…

So that, to me, begs the question was it skill, or just luck? That is hard to determine. No doubt the NFL draft is an extreme combination of both. Sometimes home runs strike out, and strike outs turn into home runs. The NFL draft is a tricky beast to master, and no matter how good anyone ever gets at it, there will never be a true master of the draft. Not even a man who drafts 7 Pro-Bowlers in 13 attempts.

The fact that Polian had the run he did in that timeframe, I think, leads some fans to give him too much credit. There is a sense that if Polain picked him, he’s great. He can’t be a dud, and to assume and opine otherwise is near blasphemy and should be punished.

On the flipside of that coin, though, some take a look at our last 5 number 1 picks and say “Well Polian is just awful! He’s old, he needs to retire!” To me, they are letting recent history speak too loudly of a largely good record.

So what then should be the final verdict on Bill Polian in the first round of the NFL draft since he became Indianapolis Colts President?

I think it’s entirely unfair to give him any less than a high passing grade… Maybe it was luck, maybe it was skill, maybe it was fate, but whatever it is, he has been more successful in the first round than he has not, despite recent history. Is the recent trends of 1st round picks alarming? To an extent, yes, but he’s still over the 50% success rate, and by god that’s worth something.

Outside the first round he’s made his fair share of good picks as well… I mean here are notable names drafted outside the first round by Polian:

Marcus Washington (2)

Idrees Bashir (2)

Mike Doss (2)

Kelvin Hayden (2)

Pat Angerer (2)

Jerraud Powers (3)

Donald Strickland (3)

Freddie Kiaho (3)

Jason David (4)

Matt Giordano (4)

Clint Session (4)

Jacob Tamme (4)

Ryan Diem (4)

David Thornton (4)

Austin Collie (4)

Jake Scott (5)

Robert Mathis (5)

Tyjuan Hagler (5)

Charlie Johnson (6)

Antoine Bethea (6)

Cato June (6)

Pierre Garçon (6)

TJ Rushing (7)

Rick DeMulling (7)

Pat McAfee (7)

Kavell Conner (7)

All of those names have stepped in at some time for us and been effective when we needed them to be. There’s even some names not on that list that easily could be. And then you have to take into account, after all of this, how many undrafted rookie free agent’s we’ve brought in and made good use of. I couldn’t find a list of UDFA’s, but there have been more than a fair share of good one’s through here through the Polian years…

One thing I’ve thought for a while now but never really expressed is how hard it is becoming to build a team through the draft with the irreverence that we have. There is no data to support this theory, but I believe that draft “busts” are becoming more and more common. These players leave college, and for whatever reason, it seems their success rate in the NFL is diminishing from top to bottom.

So it makes the draft especially dangerous for a team like us… If more and more players coming into the NFL and onto our team via the draft aren’t going to transition to this level, it’s going to make the way we do things much harder, and make a great draft even rarer than it is now.

So in the end, when you think about how Bill Polian has built this team through the draft, you have to admit he’s done a pretty darn good job of it. I understand that our recent drafts have been pretty mediocre, and while that’s cause for a bit of concern, it’s also the way the system works. Could they continue to be sub-par? Sure. But they could also turn out exceptionally well, you just never know.

Ideally, the best way to build a team is a combination of both the draft, and free agency. Draft some good players, and sign some good low profile players that way when you draft a guy who just doesn’t work out it doesn’t immediately effect you.

But for a team who has built largely through the draft, Bill Polian should get a high passing grade.

As for anything else he does? Well, that’s debatable, but that’s not what this thread is for… I just wanted to take a kind of in-depth look at our drafts in the Polian years and hopefully dispel some of the notion that he’s not near as good as he’s cracked up to be.

As far as this year’s draft goes, I think this may turn into one of his better classes. I think Costanzo is eventually going to work out and be a well rounded LT. Drake Nevis and Delone Carter are already showing they can play. If Ijalana turns out to be a great guard, or even just a decent guard, then there’s no way to call this draft anything but a raging success.

But that’s the thing about the draft: You just never know. It’s not an exact science.

Need to remove Bob Sanders from your list. He was a 2nd. round pick, 44th. overall

[pacolts56]

I agree....Bill Polian did a very good job on Draft Day up until 2007, as the OP stated.

Unfortunately, the retirement of OT Tarik Glenn and the free agent departure of OG Jake Scott, with Scott being another in what has become a "revolving door" approach at OG....set in motion a situation where Polian would be playing catch-up on Draft Day since 2007. We already had, and continue to have DT issues, and special teams return units have been lousy.

Putting a roster together and maintaining a high level of competitiveness is easier said than done. Polian did a good job building the offense around Peyton, and an decent job building a defense designed to play with the lead....with obstacles like salary cap and injuries factored in.

But clearly, when an over-reliance on one player is the case, and that one player is injured long-term....it's not surprising at all to see the wheels fall off.

We'll find out alot in the next 2-3 weeks, but it sure looks like the wheels are off.

[DalTXColtsFan]

Good job.

Add to that the fact that the Pats haven't been shy about adding FA talent to compliment the draft picks.

NE has 3 championships, Indy has 1. However it is hard to complain much when one considers how many games we've won over the time period in question.

But can our franchising strategy sustain? Look at NE this year; they have that championship gleam coming out of a drastically shortened preseason. They lost their franchise HoF QB for the entire season a few years ago and still won 11 games.

Conversely, Indy loses their QB and the whole thing looks a mess. Frankly I think even with Manning, we may not have made the playoffs. It really is that bad.

Didn't they have a championship gleam last year and the year before last as well? How many playoff games did they win?

Yes, they had 3 championships in 2001, 2003 and 2004. How many in the 7 seasons since then? How many SuperBowl appearances? How many playoff wins?

How do you judge a team, by how well they draft, how much the media licks their boots or by how many playoff games they win?

[Greenoughrunner]

4 years in a row bad first, lets hope Anthony isnt

[chad72]

I seem to recall Polian talking about a study he did about 1st round draft picks and if I remember correctly, he said that the average hit rate on player contributing to his team was 55%. In other words, 45% of the drafted 1st rounders in the period of time he studied, were considered to be busts.

If that is the case and you look at Polian's drafts from 1998 to 2006, he had an amazing run of success. Clearly since 2007 that run has stopped although I would argue it is not accurate to call Gonzo a bust if the reason for his lack of production is injury related. Regardless though, the drafts from 2007 on have really hampered this team.

Yep, cannot agree more. For a team that relies exclusively on draft picks to produce and contribute so that when players leave, another set of players are ready to take their place without a significant drop in production (like Addai for Edge in 2006 & 2007), the drafts since 2007 have hampered this team. The strategy for free agency pickups (we still scrape the bottom tier of free agents, not the middle tier) needs to be re-examined, probably, to compensate for recent draft setbacks if the goal of the team is to win now before erosion of skill level in players like Wayne, Freeney and Clark. I am not suggesting mortgaging our future for free agency pickups but playing free agency smartly may be the continued way to go for a year or two till we get our draft hits back in order, IMO. The best areas, IMO, to concentrate in free agency, would be offensive and defensive lines, NOTHING ELSE.

On a footnote, I think it would cost us too much to re-sign Freeney after next year, we need to take a long and hard look if we have Mathis in the bag by then. Maybe a 2 or 3 yr. contract w/ incentives???

[Yinkgo]

O-Line Draft Picks 2011 to 2005. Not impressive at all. Hoping the 2011 selections end the drought.

2011

1st Castonzo - so far good

2nd Ijalana - so far unknown

2010

4th McClendon - Cut

2009

7th Thomas - Cut

2008

2nd Pollak - second string

6th Justice - Cut

7th Richard - Cut

2007

2nd Ugoh - Cut

2006

5th Toudouze - Cut

6th Johnson - Released

2005

4th Gandy - Cut

[turner46992]

I think Castonzo will break the Drought of terrible O-line picks, The kid is smart and has a good build. Judging from last weeks game he can block very well( I dont remember seeing any D pressure coming from his side) so thats a huge plus.

But aside from the o line discussion, what ever happened to Rob morris? I was 11 yrs old when we drafted him and I remember seeing him alot on tv, so i dont really remember how good he was but I thought he was good, they showed him alot on tv so just made me assume.

[Guitar Villain]

I think Castonzo will break the Drought of terrible O-line picks, The kid is smart and has a good build. Judging from last weeks game he can block very well( I dont remember seeing any D pressure coming from his side) so thats a huge plus.

But aside from the o line discussion, what ever happened to Rob morris? I was 11 yrs old when we drafted him and I remember seeing him alot on tv, so i dont really remember how good he was but I thought he was good, they showed him alot on tv so just made me assume.

The early part of his career was pretty disappointing and he looked like a bust who was on the verge of being out the door, but then the coaches had the brilliant idea of moving him from MLB to OLB and he surprised by being quite effective. He was actually a very good player for us at linebacker for the last few years making the pick look fairly decent in the end, not great but not bad either.

[wanabecoach]

I'd like to see how they do with this years draft. Drafts tend to run in cycles and if this was Chris Polians first NFL draft... I like what I seen!

[Rich Cannon]

Yep, cannot agree more. For a team that relies exclusively on draft picks to produce and contribute so that when players leave, another set of players are ready to take their place without a significant drop in production (like Addai for Edge in 2006 & 2007), the drafts since 2007 have hampered this team. The strategy for free agency pickups (we still scrape the bottom tier of free agents, not the middle tier) needs to be re-examined, probably, to compensate for recent draft setbacks if the goal of the team is to win now before erosion of skill level in players like Wayne, Freeney and Clark. I am not suggesting mortgaging our future for free agency pickups but playing free agency smartly may be the continued way to go for a year or two till we get our draft hits back in order, IMO. The best areas, IMO, to concentrate in free agency, would be offensive and defensive lines, NOTHING ELSE.

On a footnote, I think it would cost us too much to re-sign Freeney after next year, we need to take a long and hard look if we have Mathis in the bag by then. Maybe a 2 or 3 yr. contract w/ incentives???

Well said + 1

[John Waylon]

O-Line Draft Picks 2011 to 2005. Not impressive at all. Hoping the 2011 selections end the drought.

2011

1st Castonzo - so far good

2nd Ijalana - so far unknown

2010

4th McClendon - Cut

2009

7th Thomas - Cut

2008

2nd Pollak - second string

6th Justice - Cut

7th Richard - Cut

2007

2nd Ugoh - Cut

2006

5th Toudouze - Cut

6th Johnson - Released

2005

4th Gandy - Cut

Uhh, yeah, we covered that, actually.

Let me first start off by saying that I am one of the first to bash Bill Polian when it comes to the handling of our offensive line through the draft and free agency. The O-line, behind Peyton, is our most important unit. Peyton’s production depends on their production. Peyton has done a great job in the past few years with his abilities to cover up for their short-comings, but had our line been better and Manning didn’t have to make so many hot reads, I’d wager his stats all around would be much, much better.

And it’s not really unfair to criticize Polian for his handling of the situation as he has said himself that he deserves blame for the situation. But then he turns around and does things like keeping guys like Jeff Linkenbach, Mike Pollak, and, until recently, Jamey Richard and neglecting to attempt to add some serviceable veterans to our line… It’s highly frustrating.

[Jason_]

Since Polian joined the Colts in 1998, here is a list of first round draft picks: (excluding 2011 for obvious reasons)

1998: Peyton Manning #1 overall

1999: Edgerrin James #4 overall

2000: Rob Morris #28 overall

2001: Reggie Wayne #30 overall

2002: Dwight Freeney #11 overall

2003: Dallas Clark #24 overall

2004: Bob Sanders (second round...44th overall so should be added to the diamond in the rough list)

2005: Marlin Jackson #29 overall

2006: Joseph Addai #30 overall

2007: Anthony Gonzalez #32 oeverall

2008: Tony Ugoh (Ugoh was taken in the 2nd round of the 2007 draft, but since we traded our 2008 first round pick to trade up for him that qualifies him as a first round pick in my opinion.)

2009: Donald Brown #27 overall

2010: Jerry Hughes #31 overall

Outside the first round he’s made his fair share of good picks as well… I mean here are notable names drafted outside the first round by Polian:

Marcus Washington (2)

Idrees Bashir (2)

Mike Doss (2)

Kelvin Hayden (2)

Pat Angerer (2)

Jerraud Powers (3)

Donald Strickland (3)

Freddie Kiaho (3)

Jason David (4)

Matt Giordano (4)

Clint Session (4)

Jacob Tamme (4)

Ryan Diem (4)

David Thornton (4)

Austin Collie (4)

Jake Scott (5)

Robert Mathis (5)

Tyjuan Hagler (5)

Charlie Johnson (6)

Antoine Bethea (6)

Cato June (6)

Pierre Garçon (6)

TJ Rushing (7)

Rick DeMulling (7)

Pat McAfee (7)

Kavell Conner (7)

I added the overall draft number for each of the first round picks you listed to make an additional point. Early on Polian was drafting earlier in the round. The year people really start criticizing is from 2007 on. After 2007 we've drafted at the end of round 1 every year. The Castonzo pick at #22 this past year is the earliest in the round that we've picked since Clark at #24 in 2003. The later you pick in the round, the less certain your picks become. The primary picks that I question were Gonzalez (not because of his health issues, because that you cannot predict, but rather because I felt defense was a more pressing need), Brown (again because I felt defense was a more pressing need) and Hughes (because DE was the area of least concern, imo, on the defense at the time). I had nothing against the Ugoh pick. He was a bust and they do happen. However, if I recall correctly wasn't the plan at the time to have him sit for a year behind Glenn but Glenn wound up retiring a year earlier than we expected so Ugoh was forced into the starting lineup? Whatever the situation was I would swear the plan was never to have Ugoh starting right away.

Either way though...I think the other thing that's very important to look at are the types of players he drafted. Not all of them were great picks (I'll be going through the list below shortly lol) BUT the important thing to note is that he and Dungy found players that fit the mold that Dungy wanted. The majority of the players did come in and make an impact at one point or another and were of the mold that Dungy wanted. So I do think it's important to point out that, even though I hate Dungy's small but fast philosophy and always have, I commend Polian for being able to search through the later rounds and find guys that could be effective in Dungy's system.

Ok to the list of guys you mentioned that Polian found in later rounds....I agree with a lot of them but some of them I think you were being way too kind, referring to the guys who's name I put in Green. If the guy's career less-than-mysteriously ended the second they left Indy then I have a very difficult time considering them a "late round gem". Yes the guys did come in and make an impact at one time or another, but that doesn't mean they were good players...they were simply the best out of a steaming pile (all of the players I noted were defensive players on a team who has never had a good defense). I feel the same way when people used to call Cato June a good LB or when people refer to Brackett now as a playmaker...yes he makes plays and both guys at one point or another have led the team in tackles but that's simply because they were the best we had at the time, but that still doesn't make them good. Sure Cato June had a lot of tackles when he was here but for how many of those was he hanging on for dear life while being dragged along by the ball carrier until someone else came along and gave the assist?

So I can't call all of those players you listed late round gems, because the careers of most of the guys in green virtually ended when they left Indy. However I don't put the blame for this on Polian but rather on Dungy. He has always been very clear on the type of player he wanted and it's the guys that are small and fast. Guys that are each outweighed by anywhere from just a few lbs to 30+ (in the case of many DT's we had under Dungy who were in the 260-280 lb range).

So when you take that into consideration I think you actually have to give Polian even more credit for being able to look through the later rounds and find guys that would work for Dungy's system (as flawed as it is) and that Dungy was able to get some use out of. But the fact that the careers of these guys fizzled once they got out of Dungy's safe-zone should help to prove the flaw of Dungy's philosophy.

The early part of his career was pretty disappointing and he looked like a bust who was on the verge of being out the door, but then the coaches had the brilliant idea of moving him from MLB to OLB and he surprised by being quite effective. He was actually a very good player for us at linebacker for the last few years making the pick look fairly decent in the end, not great but not bad either.

The biggest problem with Morris was that he weighed more than 225 lbs so he wasn't a prototypical Dungy LB and therefore he didn't work in Dungy's scheme. What a coincidence (or not lol) it was that 2006 was the year our D finally stepped up in the playoffs that allowed us to win a SB and that happened to be the year Morris was moved back into the starting lineup and the year that Simon and Booger were brought in at DT. We had also just drafted Bethea, Tim Jennings and Freddie Keiaho (who FINALLY afforded us the opportunity to get Gilbert Gardner out of the starting lineup) who all had fairly significant impacts on defense in their rookie years.

[Jason_]

**just wanted to add that one thing about Bill Polian that I don't care for is this...we have way too many players who excel in one area while being a liability in another area. Not every LB is going to excel against both the run and the pass and not every pass rushing DE is also going to play great against the run. However, we have so much money wrapped up in players that are only good at one thing while being so bad at another thing that they become a liability. And the majority of these players are, imo, overpaid considering the how badly they are at the thing they're bad at. Guys like these could be compared to a 3rd down running back or a nickel corner...they come in and excel in certain situations but the rest of the time they can prove to be a liability if they're even on the field. Also I want to clarify, that of the guys I'm referring to (for those having trouble deciphering my code I'm referring to Gary Brackett, Robert Mathis and Dwight Freeney primarily) I'm a huge fan of each one except for Brackett. However when you look at the best interests of the team, we're paying starting salary to guys who are (especially in the cases of Freeney and Mathis) situational players. The best case out of these guys could be made for Brackett since he is an every down LB. However of the 3 he's also my least favorite and just because he's the best LB we've had for awhile doesn't mean he's good.

I also think we stuck too long with Bob Sanders and are doing the same thing with Gonzalez, though I'm sure this is most likely Gonzo's last year to make a case for himself. I know Bill didn't want to be the guy who released Bob Sanders and then have him actually stay healthy the next year and make Bill look, by some, as foolish but we paid far too much money for Bob Sanders considering he only started 2 full years (not every game in those 2 years but he only missed 1 or 2 games as opposed to 10+).

[GoColts8818]

O-Line Draft Picks 2011 to 2005. Not impressive at all. Hoping the 2011 selections end the drought.

2011

1st Castonzo - so far good

2nd Ijalana - so far unknown

2010

4th McClendon - Cut

2009

7th Thomas - Cut

2008

2nd Pollak - second string

6th Justice - Cut

7th Richard - Cut

2007

2nd Ugoh - Cut

2006

5th Toudouze - Cut

6th Johnson - Released

2005

4th Gandy - Cut

First of all Johnson was not released his contract expired, there is a huge difference.

Second of all yeah the Colts are the only team in the history of the NFL to cut former draft picks or have players who didn't work out...

I can make any GM look horriable if I only look at the guys who were cut or didn't work out because every GM has them. Frankly the princepal behind the old baseball saying when it comes to hitting that even if you hit .400 you still fail 60% of the time can be said about GMs. The idea behind that is the one who do it really really really well (like Polian) are going to miss from time-to-time.

Also I would put Polians 09 draft class up against any draft class he's had since he's been here when you look at it from top to bottom. Yes Brown was a bust but you know what Moala, Collie, McAfee, and Powers all came out of that draft and are all starters and key startes for this team. People have a tendncy to try to judge Polian's recent draft classes based on his first round picks which have not gone as well as we would like and over look at what he's done in other rounds of those drafts. He's gotten some pretty good players. I said yesterday I think Polian's recent struggles are more of the averages catching up to him than anything else since he hit on just about every pick in the first round from 1998 to 2006. Teams would kill for a run like that. I would also say the very early returns this year seem to suggest that he might have had a bounce back year.

I've noticed something, there is a group of fans out there and I have no idea if this poster is a part of them or not, that since week 16 have waited for Polian to fail and look for anything in the world to say hey look Polian stinks and will only look at the negative things he's done because I think they were so mad about week 16 and it only got worse when we were fresh and came out and played hard against the Ravens in their first playoff game and got to a Super Bowl so Polian could stand up and say hey what the team did worked. People were just so put off by the week 16 thing, and Polian made himself the face of it, they want him to pay for it and are never going to give him credit for anything good he has done. So now that the team is down a lot of them are finally getting their chance to kick Polian.

Is Polian a saint? No. Is Polian perfect when it comes to the draft and presonal moves? No. No GM is though. You just want your misses to be out numbered by what you have done well and for the most part Polian has a track record of doing that. This team has been loaded with talent since 1998 and that goes beyond the QB spot someone brought those players here and no Polian didn't just "luck" his way into building a team that rewrote the NFL record book on winning. No Peyton didn't do it all by himself either. Yes Peyton is a HUGE part of it and he's the corner stone everything is built around but he's not the sole reason.

Polian is one of the biggest jerks in the NFL when it comes to being a person. He might have the largest ego in the NFL. He does think we are stupid and we don't know anything. With that said, he is also very good at building winning football teams which is why he has lasted this long in the NFL. It's funny he is very much cut from the same cloth as BB in New England who people seem to wish we had. We do have him he's the GM running our football team.

It's pretty hard to argue with what Polian has done since he's been here. He's built the most winningest team in the history of the NFL anyway you slice it other than Super Bowl wins. He did it by building a team around maybe the greatest QB of all time, something any team was going to do if they had Manning. Now that Manning is out of course they are going to struggle, everyhing was built around him and you know what even with the way it was built there are about 29 other teams in the NFL that would trade their past 13 years for ours without even thinking about it. So to the fans that say losing him shouldn't matter it does. You take away a guy like Brees from New Orleans, or a guy like Rivers from the Chargers, or heck the way they are build now a guy like Brady away from the Pats and you are going to see close to the samething. A team that is struggling because they have lost the guy the team is built around. You can't just replace that.

Yes the o-line is a problem, it's a big problem and it's one that is beeing addressed. It's going to take time to get it completely fixed. It's why I said how we did this year is going to depend on how the line plays. When they play well we'll be okay when they play like they did Sunday we are in trouble. I don't want to hear about the d-line and special teams because yes they are holes but you know what we've won at a very high level for years with holes in those areas and that's what the salary cap forces you to have, holes. Every team in the league has them just like we do. It would be nice to upgrade them and I am sure the Colts are going to keep trying to upgrade them just as they been doing since Polian got here. Frankly we've had more just flat out bad luck at the DT spot than any other poistion on the roster. The point is the team has been able to over come it for the most part. As for special teams even in our most crowing moment the Super Bowl win we had special teams melt downs, the Hester return and the botched snap on the extra point play and that's even counting AV's missed field goal. That's part of why thye have been holes for as long as they have been the Colts have proven they can win with them being holes. What they can't win with is the o-line being the big hole it is right now. It's what needs to be addressed first and foremost.

[braveheartcolt]

John Waylon - excellent topic and discussion.

I seem to recall Polian talking about a study he did about 1st round draft picks and if I remember correctly, he said that the average hit rate on player contributing to his team was 55%. In other words, 45% of the drafted 1st rounders in the period of time he studied, were considered to be busts.

If that is the case and you look at Polian's drafts from 1998 to 2006, he had an amazing run of success. Clearly since 2007 that run has stopped although I would argue it is not accurate to call Gonzo a bust if the reason for his lack of production is injury related. Regardless though, the drafts from 2007 on have really hampered this team.

But there are some who believe that the game has passed Polian by. I think that is just absolute nonsense. He did not all of the sudden forget how to scout and draft. I think it is just the odds evening things out. Not every pick can be a home run. The result is a team dependent on aging players with a lack of talent behind them. I would be shocked if they open the 2012 season with their 2007, 2008, 2009, & 2010 first draft picks on the roster. That is a tough stretch to overcome even with a completely healthy Manning.

"Just the odds evening things out". So GREAT (former) + VERY POOR (latter) = AVERAGE.

Yep Skinnz, I agree with you for a change. Good job.

[true colt fan]

polian does an excellent job with the draft free agency and keeping players. Who would you let go to sign some of these free agents your going on about Freeney Mathis Wayne Braket Manning Bethea? you wouldnt get rid of any of those guys thats why weve had all the success and winning seasons we have had. thats where all the money is tied up and no free agent that is good and young enough to be worth it will not play for free. just look at this seasons lockout all the players are crying they dont make enough money as they are being interviewed on or going on vacation to vegas or anywhere else running around in there hummers,Bentleys and whatever else they drive wearing all there gold chains and having two or more houses and still saying we need more money. they want all they can get and dont care about there teams the fans or even there own jobs

[jskinnz]

"Just the odds evening things out". So GREAT (former) + VERY POOR (latter) = AVERAGE.

Yep Skinnz, I agree with you for a change. Good job.

If you agreed with me more, you would be right far more often than you are.

[wordofmouth]

The good/bad news is that, despite what everyone seems to think, the last couple years Chris Polian was taking the lead when it comes to drafting. Polian, Bill that is, mentioned that on one of his radio shows last year. Then he said that he was going to he in charge of this years draft and Chris was going to be doing more of the admin type stuff. Yes, Chris is now the GM and is doing most of the media stuff, but Bill is still ultimately in charge.

This is good news because I think Bill saw a decline in the quality of the drafting, especially in the first round, and stepped in and HOPEFULLY reversed that trend this year.

The bad news is that Bill, as he gets older, is obviously trying to give Chris more and more power. If Chris is here for a while and doesn't draft as well as his father -very few do- we will no longer enjoy the perennial success that we have become accustomed to.

[braveheartcolt]

If you agreed with me more, you would be right far more often than you are.

I have to disagree with you sir...

[zachb]

Polian hasnt hit a homerun in awhile!! He has simply dropped the ball and with all the positive he has been giving credit for i believe it is fair to be critical as well. He doesnt seem to be evaluating talent at the same level. I will say castanzo will turn out to be another good pick for him. We need a year dedicated to defense in the draft. Linebackers would be nice to get premiere players at that spot and defensive tackle

[OLD FAN MAN]

Polian hasnt hit a homerun in awhile!! He has simply dropped the ball and with all the positive he has been giving credit for i believe it is fair to be critical as well. He doesnt seem to be evaluating talent at the same level. I will say castanzo will turn out to be another good pick for him. We need a year dedicated to defense in the draft. Linebackers would be nice to get premiere players at that spot and defensive tackle

the front office knows that somes of their draft picks have not been good and they are going to try do better, they are thinking maybe bigger players instead of tiny guys and they may get away from tiny players getting hurt by the big guys

[GoColts8818]

Polian hasnt hit a homerun in awhile!! He has simply dropped the ball and with all the positive he has been giving credit for i believe it is fair to be critical as well. He doesnt seem to be evaluating talent at the same level. I will say castanzo will turn out to be another good pick for him. We need a year dedicated to defense in the draft. Linebackers would be nice to get premiere players at that spot and defensive tackle

Depends on what you call a homerun. Some would say getting a guy like Garcon in the sixth round or Collie in the fourth are home runs.

Also last year's draft saw us take defensive players with our first three picks and five of the seven picks over all were spent on defense. That's about as close as you can get to dedicating a draft to defense. Two of those picks were also spent on linebackers both of which have turned into starters including our second round pick Angerer. So we have drafted linebackers recently and frankly Angerer looks pretty good. It is very hard to get premiere players drafting where the Colts have been drafting. Frankly on defense after end and safety linebacker is probably our strongest spot.

It's one thing to be critical it's another to ignore everything he's done well over the years (and even in recent years if you look at the 2009 draft past Brown it stacks up against any other draft he's had here from top to bottom) and only focus on the negatives. Polian has had his mistakes just like any GM in the NFL. Yes some have hurt our team just like any GM in the NFL. What Polian has done that no other GM has done is built a team that has won more games than any NFL team in history over the past 10 years and it's amazing how quickly some fans toss that aside like it's nothing.