Luck far below expectations

[Rblake]

Or go for the big spending option, Mr Kerry Collins

Absolutely. In fact, that's what we, in the biz, call "a lock."

[gspdx]

I don't think Luck's stats his rookie season matter at all. The only disaster as far as I'm concerned would be a season ending injury. He needs to learn. This team needs to learn. The coaches need to learn. I would be concerned if a poor showing continued into his 2nd and 3rd year. It seems so many times these guys either can't cope with the increased speed of the game or they just make poor decisions on the field.

I look at this year as just a learning year. If the Colts have some success, great! But this could take some time.

[buccolts]

To the original question: It all depends on how he got there.

[JoKeR]

I know many of you have for some reason decided we are already playoff bound. I don't expect that much, but i do still have pretty high standards for Luck, so, what if Luck has an Elway rookie year? Elway was just as hyped as Luck was coming out of college, and still threw 47% completions, 7 TDs and 14 int. What if Luck has a similar year? How would you react? How would/should Irsay react?

That' was in a different era. 47% competions was ok back then,if these are the kind of stats Luck has in his rookie year, we should be worried. Not going to happen though.

[Flash7]

If he truly had the numbers that you had mentioned, similar to Elway's rookie year, Luck would be in the Jamarcus Russell category. He would instantly be labeled a bust, not just by some of us Colts fans, but the media in general. He would spend years trying to fight his way out of that perception.

There have been many talented QB's who have started off on the wrong foot and lost their confidence, never to regain it. I strongly doubt that this happens with Luck. He is so fundamentaly sound and mentally strong that he would work his tail off until he and the Colts get things right. I expect a good season from him.

[Ohio Colt]

He won't, don't worry. He will be good.

[oldunclemark]

I know many of you have for some reason decided we are already playoff bound. I don't expect that much, but i do still have pretty high standards for Luck, so, what if Luck has an Elway rookie year? Elway was just as hyped as Luck was coming out of college, and still threw 47% completions, 7 TDs and 14 int. What if Luck has a similar year? How would you react? How would/should Irsay react?

I think Luck has a better chance to throw for 47 TDs than he does 7..

..but lets says your supposition is accurate...

I would understand. Rookie QBs dont always excel...Check Jimmy Claussen..

I think Irsay would tweet somethng like "Rome wasnt built in a Day'

I dont think they expect to be in the playoffs in 2012...so the record beyond and beneath that does not matter

[HtownColt]

I think Luck has a better chance to throw for 47 TDs than he does 7..

..but lets says your supposition is accurate...

I would understand. Rookie QBs dont always excel...Check Jimmy Claussen..

I think Irsay would tweet somethng like "Rome wasnt built in a Day'

I dont think they expect to be in the playoffs in 2012...so the record beyond and beneath that does not matter

As a football team/players and you are not expecting to get into the playoffs, you're in the wrong profession my friend. Now for analyst and fans to not expect to make the playoffs is a different story

[braveheartcolt]

As a football team/players and you are not expecting to get into the playoffs, you're in the wrong profession my friend. Now for analyst and fans to not expect to make the playoffs is a different story

What utter nonesense. After going 2-14, and now rebuilding from top to bottom, I would say it is very reasonable for anyone within the organisation not to expect miracles this year. And the Colts reaching the playoffs this season is as close as you'll get to a football miracle as you will get. Did you actually watch some of that rubbish last season....

Shhh - I'll whisper it....Peyton has gone....

Oh, for the record, I do believe in miracles.....

[HtownColt]

What utter nonesense. After going 2-14, and now rebuilding from top to bottom, I would say it is very reasonable for anyone within the organisation not to expect miracles this year. And the Colts reaching the playoffs this season is as close as you'll get to a football miracle as you will get. Did you actually watch some of that rubbish last season....

Shhh - I'll whisper it....Peyton has gone....

Oh, for the record, I do believe in miracles.....

I'm not arguing the record and all that stuff..I'm saying if your own players and coaches goal isn't to make the playoffs then they are in the wrong profession. Whether they do it or not is a different story and fans and analyst have every right to expect a bad year(me myself see 6-10 7-9 or 8-8) but as for players and coaches and Gms if that's not your mindset every year you better go start working at starbucks because football isn't your future

[#12]

It's not Luck, it's the team around him which makes this difficult, perhaps impossible. If he were walking into a Roethlisberger or Flacco type situation, then yes, he could potentially win 9-10 games. If this were a balanced, well built team, he could go somewhere as a rookie. It's not. After last season you would think they would, but I still don't get the impression people realize how difficult it is to win with a team like this. You could put any number of upper level veteran QBs from around the league on this team and they wouldn't win more than 5-6 games. Manning was a freak. The way Manning could control and affect every aspect of the game... The guy was a freak. Don't expect a sequel. Just hope, within a few years, this team is built the right way, and Luck is able to succeed.

[braveheartcolt]

I'm not arguing the record and all that stuff..I'm saying if your own players and coaches goal isn't to make the playoffs then they are in the wrong profession. Whether they do it or not is a different story and fans and analyst have every right to expect a bad year(me myself see 6-10 7-9 or 8-8) but as for players and coaches and Gms if that's not your mindset every year you better go start working at starbucks because football isn't your future

Still disagree. You are allowed to have a long term plan, especially in a sport with the ultimate target of achieving parity. If they haven't set a goal of reaching the play-offs in 2-3 years, then I'd see what you were getting at, but not this year. Realism is a very useful weapon..

[HtownColt]

Still disagree. You are allowed to have a long term plan, especially in a sport with the ultimate target of achieving parity. If they haven't set a goal of reaching the play-offs in 2-3 years, then I'd see what you were getting at, but not this year. Realism is a very useful weapon..

Well if that's what you want your players, coaches and gms mindset to be well that's you. If my players and coaches goal isn't making the playoffs every year they come in(realistically or not) then I need to re-evaluate my staff. Like I said fans and analyst can expect that but not from my players and coaches. Like Mike Singletary say " Can not win with them, can not coach them, I want winners"

[braveheartcolt]

Well if that's what you want your players, coaches and gms mindset to be well that's you. If my players and coaches goal isn't making the playoffs every year they come in(realistically or not) then I need to re-evaluate my staff. Like I said fans and analyst can expect that but not from my players and coaches. Like Mike Singletary say " Can not win with them, can not coach them, I want winners"

Well if that's what you want your players, coaches and gms mindset to be well that's you. If my players and coaches goal isn't making the playoffs every year they come in(realistically or not) then I need to re-evaluate my staff. Like I said fans and analyst can expect that but not from my players and coaches. Like Mike Singletary say " Can not win with them, can not coach them, I want winners"

Yep, and look what happened to Mr Singletary......

[KarlKuffs]

If he stays healthy, i'm thinking around 2800 yards, 60% completion, 15 td's, 18 ints. And i'll be fine with that.

Now if he has a rookie season like Jamarcus Russell......then i'll be concerned.

[HtownColt]

Yep, and look what happened to Mr Singletary......

Yea and ask Vernon Davis what he did to his career after Singletary gave him that reality check.

[JoKeR]

It's not Luck, it's the team around him which makes this difficult, perhaps impossible. If he were walking into a Roethlisberger or Flacco type situation, then yes, he could potentially win 9-10 games. If this were a balanced, well built team, he could go somewhere as a rookie. It's not. After last season you would think they would, but I still don't get the impression people realize how difficult it is to win with a team like this. You could put any number of upper level veteran QBs from around the league on this team and they wouldn't win more than 5-6 games. Manning was a freak. The way Manning could control and affect every aspect of the game... The guy was a freak. Don't expect a sequel. Just hope, within a few years, this team is built the right way, and Luck is able to succeed.

I don't think we can realistically judge how this team will do. No one has seen it in compitition. It could be a offensive juggernaut for all we know.

[Hans Moleman]

Between the rule changes and Luck not being the prima donna that Elway was, I don't expect him to have near the growing pains. It took Elway a couple of years before he really played like "Elway".

[Tark The Shark]

Alex Smith of the 49ers only threw one touchdown his rookie season, and that was only 5 years ago. Granted he didn't start every game, but I don't think you can do much worse than one touchdown for a whole year

[Coltman51]

I would be disappointed as we all want a winning team. But it would not be a total surprise, this is his rookie year. Peytons first season wasn't stellar and he came into a team with fewer new and unknown abilities around him. Will be and interesting and exciting year either way

[FireJimCaldwell]

If he stays healthy, i'm thinking around 2800 yards, 60% completion, 15 td's, 18 ints. And i'll be fine with that.

Now if he has a rookie season like Jamarcus Russell......then i'll be concerned.

Russell only started one game, so he's not a fair comparison since there is only one way Luck only starts one game. The one game Russell started he played fairly welll in it.

If Luck plays 16 games then your #'s would be disappointing.

[NewColtsFan]

OK.... if we're now throwing out numbers....

I'll predict at least 3,000 yards passing. 60% sounds about right for a rookie. 21-24 TD's, and 12-14 int's.

Thems is my numbers.... I'll stick with them until I see how Andrew looks through the 4 pre-season games. Then, perhaps I'll adjust.

NCF

[Ohio Colt]

That' was in a different era. 47% competions was ok back then,if these are the kind of stats Luck has in his rookie year, we should be worried. Not going to happen though.

You're exactly right, different era back then.

[Jules]

Shhh - I'll whisper it....Peyton has gone....

[KarlKuffs]

Russell only started one game, so he's not a fair comparison since there is only one way Luck only starts one game. The one game Russell started he played fairly welll in it.

If Luck plays 16 games then your #'s would be disappointing.

Good Lord. You like to split hairs, do you? Your looking way too deep into what i'm saying. I'm looking at it ONLY from a numbers perspective. If Luck finishes the season 36-66 373 yards 2 tds and 4ints, we would all be disappointed, correct? I know that he'll likely play more than Russell played his first year.

But if it makes you feel better, use a different highly touted qb that logged more playing time and had a lousy year their rookie season. How bout Ryan Leaf. Is that sample size large enough for you, since he played in 10 games his rookie year? Does that make things clearer, now? I think everyone understood my point when I referenced Jamarcus Russell.

[John Waylon]

We just watched kerry collins, curtis freakin painter, and dan orlovsky wing errant passes for 16 games. It shouldn't take much at all for Luck to make us feel warm and fuzzy inside, good or bad. He can't be ANY worse than any of the crap we were subjected to last season, and that in, and of itself should be more than enough for all of us.

[FireJimCaldwell]

Good Lord. You like to split hairs, do you? Your looking way too deep into what i'm saying. I'm looking at it ONLY from a numbers perspective. If Luck finishes the season 36-66 373 yards 2 tds and 4ints, we would all be disappointed, correct? I know that he'll likely play more than Russell played his first year.

But if it makes you feel better, use a different highly touted qb that logged more playing time and had a lousy year their rookie season. How bout Ryan Leaf. Is that sample size large enough for you, since he played in 10 games his rookie year? Does that make things clearer, now? I think everyone understood my point when I referenced Jamarcus Russell.

I almost left out the comment about Russel because it is meaningless and yes he was a bust.

The point is that cumulative #'s you mentioned

If he stays healthy, i'm thinking around 2800 yards, 60% completion, 15 td's, 18 ints. And i'll be fine with that.

Considering the garbage QB cluster that played last year combined for : 56.6% 3223 14 td 14 int. So yeah I expect quite a bit more than that. But again maybe I'm the devil for expecting him to be competent in year one.

But if you want me to stat splitting hairs I'll be more than happy to.

[Gavin]

I almost left out the comment about Russel because it is meaningless and yes he was a bust.

The point is that cumulative #'s you mentioned

Considering the garbage QB cluster that played last year combined for : 56.6% 3223 14 td 14 int. So yeah I expect quite a bit more than that. But again maybe I'm the devil for expecting him to be competent in year one.

But if you want me to stat splitting hairs I'll be more than happy to.

Just for example what type of numbers are numbers are you expecting out of him

[FireJimCaldwell]

Just for example what type of numbers are numbers are you expecting out of him

I've gone on record that i expect him to be better than the average QB from last year. Which were 60.1% 3675 yds 23 td 16 int and those are based off of 34 passes per game.

That shouldn't be too much to ask for.

To be quite honest, he should be closer to 4k than 3500 but that could depend on how much Pagano does run the ball, but I believe it will be more pass-happy than most. So if he averages more than 34 passes per game, then I would expect the #'s to be higher. If he averages less, then they could be less. Though that could open other topics for discussion.

Newton last year threw the ball 517 times. 32 a game. He rushed the ball 124.. I don't want to see Luck carrying the ball 124 times. It's asking for trouble. So if he added say in the minimum 25% of those rushes as passes, he would be up to the 34 range in attempts per game.

Dalton last year tossed the ball 516 times, also at 32 a game, and Cincy as a whole ran the ball 10 more times than Carolina(455-445), I'm not sure the Colts hit that benchmark(nearly 28 rushes a game).

So again, I do not see asking for production better than the( "average NFL QB".... League passing #'s/32) as being too demanding.

Asking for 4500 yards and 35 td's with 10 int's would be too demanding.

[Gavin]

I've gone on record that i expect him to be better than the average QB from last year. Which were 60.1% 3675 yds 23 td 16 int and those are based off of 34 passes per game.

That shouldn't be too much to ask for.

To be quite honest, he should be closer to 4k than 3500 but that could depend on how much Pagano does run the ball, but I believe it will be more pass-happy than most. So if he averages more than 34 passes per game, then I would expect the #'s to be higher. If he averages less, then they could be less. Though that could open other topics for discussion.

reasonable numbers I think if everyone stays healthy but I wont be disappointed if he doen't get to the yardage numbers specified, Reggie I believe is still a very good wide receiver but certainly not a deep threat, we have Avery and Hilton for that though if they stay healthy so who knows

[OZOC01]

Alex Smith of the 49ers only threw one touchdown his rookie season, and that was only 5 years ago. Granted he didn't start every game, but I don't think you can do much worse than one touchdown for a whole year

And now he's up to 1 TD pass a game... ;)

[FireJimCaldwell]

reasonable numbers I think if everyone stays healthy but I wont be disappointed if he doen't get to the yardage numbers specified, Reggie I believe is still a very good wide receiver but certainly not a deep threat, we have Avery and Hilton for that though if they stay healthy so who knows

Added more to the response.

[OZOC01]

OK.... if we're now throwing out numbers....

I'll predict at least 3,000 yards passing. 60% sounds about right for a rookie. 21-24 TD's, and 12-14 int's.

Thems is my numbers.... I'll stick with them until I see how Andrew looks through the 4 pre-season games. Then, perhaps I'll adjust.

NCF

If Luck plays all 16 games, I agree with your #s. No way he throws less than 3,000 yards and I also see his INTs hovering between 10 but no more than 15. I remeber watching a Marshall Faulk interview concerning Peyton's rookie season, saying after every Manning pick he would tell Faulk "I thought (receiver) was open" or "I thought I could get the ball in there". Point is, Peyton had the mindset his rookie year that he could complete the SAME type of passes against NFL coverage he was completing at Tennesse which was a big factor as to why he threw so many INTs. I do not see Luck having that kind of confidence/arrogance with his decision-making, thus resulting in much lower INTs.

[Thewholefnshow28]

People need to get ready and prepare themselves that Luck might struggle. He will still be a rookie QB in this league and very few rookies take the league by storm. He is going to make some great plays out there, but then follow them up with just some reall stupid plays.

I understand that people are excited, but I think this notion that we are a playoff team is laughable and will only setup fans to have a big backlash towards our young guys when we are sitting at 6-10 or 5-11 next season.

I just want to see those flashes from Luck and see some growth by the end of the season. Ill be happy if we are sitting at 5-11.

[FireJimCaldwell]

If Luck plays all 16 games, I agree with your #s. No way he throws less than 3,000 yards and I also see his INTs hovering between 10 but no more than 15. I remeber watching a Marshall Faulk interview concerning Peyton's rookie season, saying after every Manning pick he would tell Faulk "I thought (receiver) was open" or "I thought I could get the ball in there". Point is, Peyton had the mindset his rookie year that he could complete the SAME type of passes against NFL coverage he was completing at Tennesse which was a big factor as to why he threw so many INTs. I do not see Luck having that kind of confidence/arrogance with his decision-making, thus resulting in much lower INTs.

That is the learning curve. I'd say Luck has that confidence/arrogance, most QB's do, he might not have another factor that I can't quite put into words, but it's close to confidence/arrogance. It's in the family.

You also have to consider the team.

I highly doubt that Luck throws 60% of his passes while trailing as Manning did in 98.

71% of his int's came when trailing.

26% of Manning's passes were when the team was down 9-16 points, 43% of his int's came in this range as well.

Manning threw roughly 19% of his passes when the team was down 17+ points and 14 % of his int's came in that range.

The team was forced to throw. I don't see that happening this year which will be a main reason Luck's interceptions won't be in the 20's or the low 20's. Manning threw it 575 or a little over 35 a game. I could see Luck surpassing that, unless Pagano truly wants to have a more balanced attack but I think Arians will put the pig in the air 58-63% of the time.

Rule changes along with the way the game has shifted, each point towards an easier time at QB which is evident by recent successes by rookie QB's.

[Michael Lebron]

I think it is pretty safe to say that Luck will be just fine this year. Despite what some people say, he has weapons at his disposal. You have a top 10 receiver in Reggie Wayne. You have the top 2 tight ends in college football. One who can split out and take advantage of small corners who we face weekly. The other is as solid as they come at blocking and route running. He has a speedy receiver in Hilton, who is a crease from going to the house every time he touches the football. There is the reliable Austin Collie, who in the slot is as good as gets. Not to mention Donnie Avery!!!

Some may want to argue that some of his targets aren't proven commodities. However anyone who follows football knows that if you have two viable threats on the field that demand attention; the others will simply have to catch the ball because there will be open space on the field to do so.

I am excited about the creativity we will see on the offensive side of the ball. The last 4 years, I have found us to be pretty stale in regards to our play selection. Other defenses caught up with us due to lack of creativity. Areans will create mismatches and allow Luck to be a top 10 quarterback this year!

[Gavin]

I think it is pretty safe to say that Luck will be just fine this year. Despite what some people say, he has weapons at his disposal. You have a top 10 receiver in Reggie Wayne. You have the top 2 tight ends in college football. One who can split out and take advantage of small corners who we face weekly. The other is as solid as they come at blocking and route running. He has a speedy receiver in Hilton, who is a crease from going to the house every time he touches the football. There is the reliable Austin Collie, who in the slot is as good as gets. Not to mention Donnie Avery!!!

Some may want to argue that some of his targets aren't proven commodities. However anyone who follows football knows that if you have two viable threats on the field that demand attention; the others will simply have to catch the ball because there will be open space on the field to do so.

I am excited about the creativity we will see on the offensive side of the ball. The last 4 years, I have found us to be pretty stale in regards to our play selection. Other defenses caught up with us due to lack of creativity. Areans will create mismatches and allow Luck to be a top 10 quarterback this year!

Yeah, Im not concerned with the offense so much as long as everyone stays reasonably healthy and we can run the ball better, our defense is scary looking and not in a good way though

[Michael Lebron]

Why the lack of confidence in the defense? The way I view it us, we cannot be any worse than we have been the last 9 out of 10 years defensively. Our talent pool is pretty much the same as it has been for years. The difference is we will actually put our players in a position to make plays. It is very easy to slow Mathis and Freeney when you know exactly where they are coming from each play. We have had 4 secondary blitzes in 6 years. We have allowed three step quick passes to be thrown as a result of us lining up 10 inches off the ball and working a bail technique for years. Now we will be a little unpredictable, which should create the oppportunity for other players to make plays besides Freeney and Mathis. The 3-4 should also allow them to make more plays from different spots on the field. Im excited about all three phases of the game. We will actually practice special teams now. Click on the link and here our Special Teams Coach talk. There has never been an interview with our Special Teams Coach. Quite honestly, I didn't know we had one.

Anyone else excited about the OTA session at Lucas Oil????????

[Gavin]

Why the lack of confidence in the defense? The way I view it us, we cannot be any worse than we have been the last 9 out of 10 years defensively. Our talent pool is pretty much the same as it has been for years. The difference is we will actually put our players in a position to make plays. It is very easy to slow Mathis and Freeney when you know exactly where they are coming from each play. We have had 4 secondary blitzes in 6 years. We have allowed three step quick passes to be thrown as a result of us lining up 10 inches off the ball and working a bail technique for years. Now we will be a little unpredictable, which should create the oppportunity for other players to make plays besides Freeney and Mathis. The 3-4 should also allow them to make more plays from different spots on the field. Im excited about all three phases of the game. We will actually practice special teams now. Click on the link and here our Special Teams Coach talk. There has never been an interview with our Special Teams Coach. Quite honestly, I didn't know we had one.

Anyone else excited about the OTA session at Lucas Oil????????

I cant wait for the Colts to come to Anderson for practice, I will be here every day

[icf]

I don't expect the playoffs this season....I'd be surprised if they made it.

That said, I'd be even more surprised if Luck has only 7TD's (unless he gets hurt) and ends up throwing twice as many INT's as TD's (again, assumming he's a 16 game starter).

I'd guess his TD/INT ratio will be about 50/50.....some games I expect him to look like an all-pro...and other's he'll probably look like Painter.

This year will be a learning experience for him and many in the organization, but I think that will only lead to very good things in the years that follow.