Luck far below expectations

[Nobody]

I know many of you have for some reason decided we are already playoff bound. I don't expect that much, but i do still have pretty high standards for Luck, so, what if Luck has an Elway rookie year? Elway was just as hyped as Luck was coming out of college, and still threw 47% completions, 7 TDs and 14 int. What if Luck has a similar year? How would you react? How would/should Irsay react?

[GoColts8818]

I know many of you have for some reason decided we are already playoff bound. I don't expect that much, but i do still have pretty high standards for Luck, so, what if Luck has an Elway rookie year? Elway was just as hyped as Luck was coming out of college, and still threw 47% completions, 7 TDs and 14 int. What if Luck has a similar year? How would you react? How would/should Irsay react?

I'd react like I do with most rookies. You don't judge them based on one season especially with the major over haul that the team is under going. That's just me though I am sure some others will be harsh on him. People kill most of our rookies their rookie years for not living up to their expectations (and in some cases have been proven justified) I can only imange how people would react if the guy that was drafted to replace Peyton Manning didn't have a great rookie season while Peyton was tearing it up in Denver.

I think Irsay understands it's a rebuilding process and it's not going to happen over night. I don't think he expects it too. I would expect him to be leading the cheerleaders on twitter by staying we have to stay patient and would probably point out Elway's rookie year as an example for why we need to stay patient.

[FireJimCaldwell]

How can Irsay react? This isn't Madden there are no reset buttons.

What's done is done.

But to answer your question, that type of year would be epically disappointing and could easily be amplified by what goes on elsewhere.

[Gavin]

How can Irsay react? This isn't Madden there are no reset buttons.

What's done is done.

But to answer your question, that type of year would be epically disappointing and could easily be amplified by what goes on elsewhere.

Only by those not ready to let go, if someone was to think logically about it and not think with their emotions then they would realize Peytons rookie year he threw 28 touchdowns but also 26 interceptions while completing 56.7 percent of his passes not mind popping numbers, I think epically disappointing is a stretch

[21isSuperman]

Take a look at Dan Marino's numbers coming out of college. His numbers were really bad. Never had a completion percentage higher than 60%, threw a lot of picks compared to TDs except in 1981, never averaged more than 261 yards per game, never threw for more than 2900 yards in a season. Just thought I would put it out there.

As for Luck, I think our team is better than advertised. Some people are expecting us to have another top 5 pick next year, but I think we will do better than Luck will do better than people expect. I'm not saying he will beat Cam Newton's records, but I think he will do decently. 3000+ yards, 20+ TDs, around 15 INTs

[FireJimCaldwell]

Only by those not ready to let go, if someone was to think logically about it and not think with their emotions then they would realize Peytons rookie year he threw 28 touchdowns but also 26 interceptions while completing 56.7 percent of his passes not mind popping numbers, I think epically disappointing is a stretch

What is it with you with letting go? Have you not let go yet? Is that it?

It has nothing to do with whether anyone is happy with the decisions that have been made. Hence the what's done is done comment. It's about moving forward.

26 td's and 28 int's is still a far cry from the 7 & 14 the OP used as an example. Considering Elway's rookie year was nearly 30 years ago and how the NFL has advanced into a passing league if 7 & 14 or something similar were the end result then epically disappointing would be an understatement.

As I have said before, I guess it depends on how you view expectations and what you consider as being part of the equation. I have a pretty big equation. Some don't. To each their own.

[HtownColt]

I know many of you have for some reason decided we are already playoff bound. I don't expect that much, but i do still have pretty high standards for Luck, so, what if Luck has an Elway rookie year? Elway was just as hyped as Luck was coming out of college, and still threw 47% completions, 7 TDs and 14 int. What if Luck has a similar year? How would you react? How would/should Irsay react?

But that was back when you can man handle receivers all down the field. If a QB had them numbers in today's NFL that would make Tebow is Joe Montana. I know he better do better than Blaine Gabbert rookie year. Wouldn't mind an Andy Dalton rookie year numbers wise

[NewColtsFan]

Several thoughts....

First, I think there's no chance -- none -- that Luck has an Elway-like first season. The reason? There have been a ton of rule changes in the 30-years since, and all of those rule changes favor the passing game. That's why more QB's are making a big difference earlier in their careers. Luck will have a good rookie season, the only question is........ how good?

Second, the how good part is the part that's hard to answer. Everything is new. A new playbook. A new OC. Lots and lots of new players. A new offensive line and that often is slow to come together. An unknown running game. Too many question marks to know.

But, know this.... Luck is not prone to mistakes. Yes, he'll make some.... all rookies do. But he won't make many and he rarely makes the same mistake twice. He's more likely to be conservative so he doesn't make mistakes or have turnovers than he is anything else.

Grigson has surrounded Luck with some very nice pieces. Hopefully, they'll all fit well in the Arians system. Hopefully, injuries will be at a minimum. Hopefully all the young players step-up and contribute. Remember, rookies make mistakes. So, if Luck is not making them, that still leaves Fleener and Allen and Ballard as well as everyone else trying to fit in...

But if Newton and Andy Dalton can have great rookie years, Luck is certainly capable of having a good to very good one. If he doesn't I'd guess that reflects on something, or somethings beyond his own ability.... just my hunch....

NewColtsFan

[Fx Stryker]

If that happens I won't throw him out in the fire, but he better hope it doesn't continue the next season.

If his game is showing improvement then that's good. The stats don't really tell a tale for a rookie.

[Warhorse]

Several thoughts....

First, I think there's no chance -- none -- that Luck has an Elway-like first season. The reason? There have been a ton of rule changes in the 30-years since, and all of those rule changes favor the passing game. That's why more QB's are making a big difference earlier in their careers. Luck will have a good rookie season, the only question is........ how good?

Second, the how good part is the part that's hard to answer. Everything is new. A new playbook. A new OC. Lots and lots of new players. A new offensive line and that often is slow to come together. An unknown running game. Too many question marks to know.

But, know this.... Luck is not prone to mistakes. Yes, he'll make some.... all rookies do. But he won't make many and he rarely makes the same mistake twice. He's more likely to be conservative so he doesn't make mistakes or have turnovers than he is anything else.

Grigson has surrounded Luck with some very nice pieces. Hopefully, they'll all fit well in the Arians system. Hopefully, injuries will be at a minimum. Hopefully all the young players step-up and contribute. Remember, rookies make mistakes. So, if Luck is not making them, that still leaves Fleener and Allen and Ballard as well as everyone else trying to fit in...

But if Newton and Andy Dalton can have great rookie years, Luck is certainly capable of having a good to very good one. If he doesn't I'd guess that reflects on something, or somethings beyond his own ability.... just my hunch....

NewColtsFan

Brilliant post.

[subvet]

I honestly don't even want to consider it not being an exemplary rookie year breaking all existing records. Any other outcome will have all of us Manning lovers screaming "we were right" from every mountain.

Nope, I'm over it and I want Andrew Luck to be all that he has been projected to be.

[Nobody]

What is it with you with letting go? Have you not let go yet? Is that it?

It has nothing to do with whether anyone is happy with the decisions that have been made. Hence the what's done is done comment. It's about moving forward.

26 td's and 28 int's is still a far cry from the 7 & 14 the OP used as an example. Considering Elway's rookie year was nearly 30 years ago and how the NFL has advanced into a passing league if 7 & 14 or something similar were the end result then epically disappointing would be an understatement.

As I have said before, I guess it depends on how you view expectations and what you consider as being part of the equation. I have a pretty big equation. Some don't. To each their own.

I agree with everything, however, it is worth pointing out he didn't start all season.

[Fx Stryker]

I agree with everything, however, it is worth pointing out he didn't start all season.

Nobody made this about Peyton, except Gavin.

[FireJimCaldwell]

I agree with everything, however, it is worth pointing out he didn't start all season.

Okay. I'm trying to see how that ties into this thread.

[Gavin]

Nobody made this about Peyton, except Gavin.

You mean you seriously cant read between the lines about Jims post about "But to answer your question, that type of year would be epically disappointing and could easily be amplified by what goes on "elsewhere". its rather obvious where "elsewhere" is, to me thats clearly not me making this about Manning

[Jules]

I don't think Elway started every game his rookie season. But, they made the playoffs his rookie year at 9-7 didn't they?

I won't be looking at just individual stats for Luck's first year either. That stuff can be overrated to me. There are intangible aspects I will look at too for a QB that can't be measured on stat sheet. How much a leader he is and how clutch I think he can be etc. It's not just about Luck either. We have to look at the whole team too. The coaching staff. There are a lot of pieces that have to be put together and gel together here.

[FireJimCaldwell]

You mean you seriously cant read between the lions about Jims post about "But to answer your question, that type of year would be epically disappointing and could easily be amplified by what goes on elsewhere". its rather obvious where 'elsewhere is, to me thats clearly not me making this about Manning

Washington and potentially Miami also starting rookie QB's. If you want to include 18 in Denver, then yeah that could amplify it as well.

[GoColts8818]

Only by those not ready to let go, if someone was to think logically about it and not think with their emotions then they would realize Peytons rookie year he threw 28 touchdowns but also 26 interceptions while completing 56.7 percent of his passes not mind popping numbers, I think epically disappointing is a stretch

Till you compare them to other rookie QBs and quickly see that as a whole till Cam Newton came along Peyton Manning had the best rookie season a rookie QB has had stat wise. It all depends on how you look at things if you compare Peyton Manning's rookie numbers to the numbers say Farve or Marino put up that year no it's not going to look great but those guys were seasoned vets. Rookie's aren't supposed to put up great numbers when they are rookie QBs it's about learning and growing.

I am not saying Luck has to have those kinds of numbers to have a good rookie season. Frankly with the team in the shape it's in as long as Luck looks decent it'll be a good year for him.

[Gavin]

Washington and potentially Miami also starting rookie QB's. If you want to include 18 in Denver, then yeah that could amplify it as well.

both teams are in the same boat as us in my opinion neither will compete for a playoff spot and Im 99.9 percent sure Miami doesn't have there future star Quarterback on their roster, Im not even sold on RGIII as good as he was in college he never ran a pro style offense

[Gavin]

Till you compare them to other rookie QBs and quickly see that as a whole till Cam Newton came along Peyton Manning had the best rookie season a rookie QB has had stat wise. It all depends on how you look at things if you compare Peyton Manning's rookie numbers to the numbers say Farve or Marino put up that year no it's not going to look great but those guys were seasoned vets. Rookie's aren't supposed to put up great numbers when they are rookie QBs it's about learning and growing.

I am not saying Luck has to have those kinds of numbers to have a good rookie season. Frankly with the team in the shape it's in as long as Luck looks decent it'll be a good year for him.

I agree

[FireJimCaldwell]

both teams are in the same boat as us in my opinion neither will compete for a playoff spot and Im 99.9 percent sure Miami doesn't have there future star Quarterback on their roster, Im not even sold on RGIII as good as he was in college he never ran a pro style offense

Washington swept the Super Bowl champs last year with garbage at QB.

The kid in Miami might have the smoothest transition to the pros of the 3. Same playbook/offense/OC former HC.

Luck didn't run an offense similar to what he will run here either, so if RGIII can be penalized for that, then so can Luck, because we aren't going to be seeing the West Coast Offense in Indy this season. It would have been nice, but that isn't the case.

[Gavin]

Washington swept the Super Bowl champs last year with garbage at QB.

The kid in Miami might have the smoothest transition to the pros of the 3. Same playbook/offense/OC former HC.

Luck didn't run an offense similar to what he will run here either, so if RGIII can be penalized for that, then so can Luck, because we aren't going to be seeing the West Coast Offense in Indy this season. It would have been nice, but that isn't the case.

How do we even know what offense will be ran exactly by Luck yet. I get two Tight End sets but surely Luck ran that at time in college. Also Tannehill has I believe it was 19 starts at quarterback and he doesnt have much at all to thrwo to in the form of wide receivers also RGIII ran a spread offense, it was tailored to his athletic talents, both will struggle at time I have no doubt but as far as the quarterback that will be in it for the long hall Luck will the choice to take every time

[Vance]

both teams are in the same boat as us in my opinion neither will compete for a playoff spot and Im 99.9 percent sure Miami doesn't have there future star Quarterback on their roster, Im not even sold on RGIII as good as he was in college he never ran a pro style offense

True dat, but Cam was a product of the option and spread in college, and he did alright his first year.

And RGIII did take snaps under center at Baylor, just not the majority of the time.

[FireJimCaldwell]

How do we even know what offense will be ran exactly by Luck yet. I get two Tight End sets but surely Luck ran that at time in college. Also Tannehill has I believe it was 19 starts at quarterback and he doesnt have much at all to thrwo to in the form of wide receivers also RGIII ran a spread offense, it was tailored to his athletic talents, both will struggle at time I have no doubt but as far as the quarterback that will be in it for the long hall Luck will the choice to take every time

Time will tell how exactly the offense will be constructed, but it's not looking like it will be similar to what he ran at Stanford.

That's the beauty of the WCO. You do not have to have elite receiver's or an elite QB for that matter.

A good coach tailors the offense around the QB's abilities. Something that wasn't present here last year.

All 3 will have their struggles It's a matter of overcoming them.

[FireJimCaldwell]

True dat, but Cam was a product of the option and spread in college, and he did alright his first year.

And RGIII did take snaps under center at Baylor, just not the majority of the time.

He also threw the ball more over their final 2 years than Luck. A fact that many fail to see when they attempt to argue RGIII as a running QB. Yes he ran the ball more than Luck, but he also threw more passes than Luck over their final two seasons.

[Nobody]

Okay. I'm trying to see how that ties into this thread.

I'm saying that yes the passing game is more prevalent, bu it's not like he managed only 7 TDs in 16 games.

[FireJimCaldwell]

I'm saying that yes the passing game is more prevalent, bu it's not like he managed only 7 TDs in 16 games.

Oh okay... I actually thought the comment was about Manning missing last season. That is why I it didn't make much sense to me.

Even if you were to extrapolate it out that would still make for a weak season in the modern game.

[Vance]

For the record when I read FJC's post I assumed the "elsewhere" meant that rookie QB down in Washington, oh what's his name again...

...because honestly comparing Luck's first year as a pro and Manning's first year in Denver would be hilarious. (In a bad way)

[Gavin]

For the record when I read FJC's post I assumed the "elsewhere" meant that rookie QB down in Washington, oh what's his name again...

...because honestly comparing Luck's first year as a pro and Manning's first year in Denver would be hilarious. (In a bad way)

Right because everyone is going to be comparing Luck to RGIII instead of that other Quarterback "elsewhere"

[NewColtsFan]

Time will tell how exactly the offense will be constructed, but it's not looking like it will be similar to what he ran at Stanford.

That's the beauty of the WCO. You do not have to have elite receiver's or an elite QB for that matter.

A good coach tailors the offense around the QB's abilities. Something that wasn't present here last year.

Luck ran a more West Coast offense at Stanford. Short and intermediate passes mixed with power running, mostly between the tackles. What I've read is that Indy is also going with a power running game, but a more down field passing game. Not as much West Coast. Now, having said that, the Colts went out and drafted not one, but two top tight ends, the staple of a West Coast offense. So..... who knows..... really, who knows??

I'm sure Luck and Arians will be peppered with questions when Luck shows up... I'm sure this will come up during practices and obviously during pre-season games..... it would be impossible for it not to be brought up...

I'm sure Luck will be comfortable with whatever he does. Arians has that kind of reputation. And I don't think Luck will be shy saying.... "I like this.... but I'm not comfortable (yet) with that..."

Ultimately, this will work.... the question is..... when.... and we're back to... who knows?

OK.... it's late and you can tell my posts are rambling more and more....

Say goodnight, Gracie....... see you on the flip-side....

NCF

[Gavin]

Yep 3 am here, I am heading to bed to, Night folks

[ConBro]

Manning went 3-13 his rookie year. And he had (some would argue) better weapons at his disposal. It's a learning curve. I have faith, and after last season, I'm in it for the long haul. All I want is 3-13 or better (progress on last year!)

[HungarianColtsFan]

Manning went 3-13 his rookie year. And he had (some would argue) better weapons at his disposal. It's a learning curve. I have faith, and after last season, I'm in it for the long haul. All I want is 3-13 or better (progress on last year!)

Well said Bro. Manning didn't have an outstanding rookie season, and he become one of greatest QBs in the NFL. I don't expect Luck making wonder neither.

Yes, I would argue, or present O-line doesn't look bad, and I wouldn't say that Manning had better weapons in his rookie year, before this new team has its first snap on the field in regular season.

[Malakai432]

I thought this post was going to be about Andrew Luck failing his classes so he decided to get messed up on alcohol and bath salts, went into a rage and slipped on someone's spilt beer blowing his shoulder out.

Boy was I wrong.

[mark5362]

If Luck has a subpar year it won't be his fault.It will be because he spent to much time on the ground. If the o-line keeps him protected hill be fine.

[Dan]

If he's disappointing I'll spend the year telling people to get off his back and stop mindlessly criticising him, which I'm sure would happen. He's only a rookie, several great QBs have had poor rookie seasons.

[OZOC01]

I know many of you have for some reason decided we are already playoff bound. I don't expect that much, but i do still have pretty high standards for Luck, so, what if Luck has an Elway rookie year? Elway was just as hyped as Luck was coming out of college, and still threw 47% completions, 7 TDs and 14 int. What if Luck has a similar year? How would you react? How would/should Irsay react?

[Rblake]

If Luck doesn't throw for 30+ TDs, <10 INTs, and win 10+ games, cut him and sign Painter back. :bag:

[Dan]

If Luck doesn't throw for 30+ TDs, <10 INTs, and win 10+ games, cut him and sign Painter back. :bag:

Or go for the big spending option, Mr Kerry Collins

[Fx Stryker]

You mean you seriously cant read between the lines about Jims post about "But to answer your question, that type of year would be epically disappointing and could easily be amplified by what goes on "elsewhere". its rather obvious where "elsewhere" is, to me thats clearly not me making this about Manning

No there is no between the lines. Maybe if you stopped trying to find lines you wouldn't be making assumptions.

There are other rookie QBs, and if Luck does the worst there will be second guessing. Like Jim said what is done is done, we don't have a reset button.