Colts have the 15th pick in the draft. (MERGE)

[DougDew]

9 hours ago, ColtStrong2013 said:

a lot of people don’t seem to know this or never read that comment by Ballard. He called them “premium players,” and in 2018 they identified 8 non-qb players as premium. His definition of a premium player was something like a player that teams were game planning against on Monday and Tuesday… 

 

so if there are roughly 8 non qb premium players each draft, then you are right about wanting to not be at 15. And I would put my money on a trade back at this point knowing this. I don’t see him trading up, at all. I may be entirely wrong on that, but it seems like they are doing due diligence on certain players projected top 10 in the event they fall to us (Odunze specifically), but also well represented at pro-days of players like Adonai Mitchell in the later part of the 1st round. When I do a mock draft, I rarely sit put at 15, just to see what kind of picks are thrown out and options it leads to (even though I know the mocks are not accurate.) 

I think some believe strongly that his term "premium players" was simply a metaphor for Nelson, that Ballard wasn't interested in any other of the 8.  That could be, but after the draft when GMs pump up the player they just picked, Ballard could have easily said that he didn't want to drop down farther because he was targeting Nelson...the guy he picked.  He just said that he was targeting AR all along last year, because that's how GMs tend to pump up the guy they just selected.  Polian did that all of the time.

 

IIRC, Ballard's comments were responses to rumors that the Bills were offering pick 12  and 23 for 6.  And then he gave the response of not trading past the premium player line.  I think people do read into it what they want, but Ballard never said Nelson specifically, IIRC, when he has had plenty of opportunity to do so and very little reason not to.

 

Agreed.  A trde down is more likely than a trade up.  The only differences I see this year compared to past years is that trade downs are typically used to get more picks to build a roster.  Not sure Ballard feels that the roster is pretty complete, but lacking a few explosive players (which is also what most here think too, IMO).  And then there is the SS factor who recently benefitted from Howie Rosman trading up to get Donte Smith and trading another 1st for AJ Brown...IOW, go get the guy you want and don't settle for the guy who comes to you.

[1959Colts]

16 minutes ago, DougDew said:

Makes great sense to me.  Thanks for the post.  A few things:  

 

My discussion of the trade up is about whether or not Ballard's team views a couple of players as standouts vs the rest.  If so, then a trade up would not be a surprise to me given that he said he wants more "explosion" (wh0 knows what that means really).  I'm not one of these Ballard critics who says he is simply stuck in his ways and will never trade up.  If there is a trade up, I think its because there probably is a break in talent somewhere around pick 11.  I will trust the professionals to make that assessment as I am not going through a bunch of players to try to second guess who should have been picked the day it happens.

 

With the players you listed, I don't know that a player at 46 is going to push any of those guys that much.  I'd rather push Paye/Ebukam with Dallas Turner than with another second rounder like Dayo.  JMO.

 

I also think OT is on the table at 15.  I really do.  If there is a stand out guy there, that's head and shoulders above the rest, why not?  You mentioned Smith is probably reached his peak, and some view him as a true G anyway.  Then if French could replace Kelly next year, AR will have some good young protection for about 5 years.   An OT is not necessarily explosive by himself, but it would allow AR to be more explosive...and would indirectly fit what Ballard was saying about getting more explosive (there are many ways that term can be satisfied later at a press conference, LOL)

There was discussion if the Colts would even activate Paye's 5th year option. Which I believe that decision does not have to be made for quite a while yet. I could definitely see Ballard taking a pass rusher. Turner may go earlier? But I am not convinced the Colts see Turner is the best at that position. Watch for Latu at 15.

a top tier OT should be in consideration, if available? Our line may gave improved a bit last year, but honestly, they were far from stellar

[BProland85]

Just now, 1959Colts said:

There was discussion if the Colts would even activate Paye's 5th year option. Which I believe that decision does not have to be made for quite a while yet. I could definitely see Ballard taking a pass rusher. Turner may go earlier? But I am not convinced the Colts see Turner is the best at that position. Watch for Latu at 15.

a top tier OT should be in consideration, if available? Our line may gave improved a bit last year, but honestly, they were far from stellar

Turner is widely looked at as the best edge rusher in this draft. It would be a reach imo to draft Latu or Verse at 15. 

[DougDew]

8 minutes ago, 1959Colts said:

There was discussion if the Colts would even activate Paye's 5th year option. Which I believe that decision does not have to be made for quite a while yet. I could definitely see Ballard taking a pass rusher. Turner may go earlier? But I am not convinced the Colts see Turner is the best at that position. Watch for Latu at 15.

a top tier OT should be in consideration, if available? Our line may gave improved a bit last year, but honestly, they were far from stellar

Yes, Turner may not be a great fit.  However, Gus brought Yannick with him, a smaller OLB body type guy.  Yannick languished as a disciplined player and run defender, so if Turner is better in those areas...you never know what the thought is.   Latu looks great, but he's also a bigger guy at around 270, maybe bigger?  Just not sure he's the LEO type or the bendy type to play RDE.  Could be though,

 

An OT at 15 is very unlikely.  I think its more of a play at 46.  I question the stability/longevity of the right side of the Oline, starting with C.

[1959Colts]

Just now, BProland85 said:

Turner is widely looked at as the best edge rusher in this draft. It would be a reach imo to draft Latu or Verse at 15. 

I beg to differ. I was speaking specifically on natural pass rush skills. Most of the draft resources I have read say Latu is the best pure pass rusher. However, its been reported, he is not great setting the edge... Time will tell.

[1959Colts]

5 minutes ago, BProland85 said:

Turner is widely looked at as the best edge rusher in this draft. It would be a reach imo to draft Latu or Verse at 15. 

Good point about the spot though, maybe not at 15...

But we all know Ballard likes to trade back.

[1959Colts]

4 minutes ago, DougDew said:

Yes, Turner may not be a great fit.  However, Gus brought Yannick with him, a smaller OLB body type guy.  Yannick languished as a disciplined player and run defender, so if Turner is better in those areas...you never know what the thought is.   Latu looks great, but he's also a bigger guy at around 270, maybe bigger.  Just not sure he's the LEO type or the bendy type to play RDE.  Could be though,

 

An OT at 15 is very unlikely.  I think its more of a play at 46.  I question the longevity of the right side of the Oline, starting with C.

Latu has injury concerns

[Defjamz26]

4 minutes ago, 1959Colts said:

Latu has injury concerns

He’s been fully healthy for two full college seasons consecutively.

[DougDew]

3 minutes ago, 1959Colts said:

Latu has injury concerns

I think its only the neck thing though. two seasons ago?  His previous coach benched him for injury risk, not even a real injury, IIRC, but later Latu got medical clearance and the coach who benched him got fired.  I think that is clearly in the past unless there are fresh concerns from NFL doctors or other injuries he's had last year?

 

 

[wig]

4 minutes ago, DougDew said:

I think its only the neck thing though. two seasons ago?  His previous coach benched him for injury risk, not even a real injury, IIRC, but later Latu got medical clearance and the coach who benched him got fired.  I think that is clearly in the past unless there are fresh concerns from NFL doctors or other injuries he's had last year?

 

 

 

There aren't any and I think he's easily the best edge. His concern was athleticism potentially and that got put to bed

[AwesomeAustin]

1 hour ago, DougDew said:

Makes great sense to me.  Thanks for the post.  A few things:  

 

My discussion of the trade up is about whether or not Ballard's team views a couple of players as standouts vs the rest.  If so, then a trade up would not be a surprise to me given that he said he wants more "explosion" (wh0 knows what that means really).  I'm not one of these Ballard critics who says he is simply stuck in his ways and will never trade up.  If there is a trade up, I think its because there probably is a break in talent somewhere around pick 11.  I will trust the professionals to make that assessment as I am not going through a bunch of players to try to second guess who should have been picked the day it happens.

 

With the players you listed, I don't know that a player at 46 is going to push any of those guys that much.  I'd rather push Paye/Ebukam with Dallas Turner than with another second rounder like Dayo.  JMO.

 

I also think OT is on the table at 15.  I really do.  If there is a stand out guy there, that's head and shoulders above the rest, why not?  You mentioned Smith is probably reached his peak, and some view him as a true G anyway.  Then if French could replace Kelly next year, AR will have some good young protection for about 5 years.   An OT is not necessarily explosive by himself, but it would allow AR to be more explosive...and would indirectly fit what Ballard was saying about getting more explosive (there are many ways that term can be satisfied later at a press conference, LOL)

I agree with you that likely a player at #46 won’t push those other players. However I feel a player at 15 and let’s say 35(don’t know who is picking there or who is available) could push two different positions. 
 

I see the logic of trading up for the bright line scenario you are saying. I believe back in 2018 Ballard called them Blue Chip players. The million dollar question is the team better served with one blue chip player or a possible blue chip player at 15 and a darn good player in the late first early second.

 

I personally feel on draft night, if the Colts board around pick 8-11 is playing out we can get elite potential at #15, the Colts should stay where we are and look into moving the 2nd up. All that does depend on how the Colts rate players and if a bonafide starter on their draft board is even available at the end of day 1 or to start day two. 

[DougDew]

28 minutes ago, AwesomeAustin said:

I see the logic of trading up for the bright line scenario you are saying. I believe back in 2018 Ballard called them Blue Chip players. The million dollar question is the team better served with one blue chip player or a possible blue chip player at 15 and a darn good player in the late first early second.

 

Yes.  My goal of this entire discussion is to bring out the fact, I believe, that Ballard believes in the concept of blue chip players, and identifies that line every draft.  Its just a matter of whether the value is there to make the trade.   If you think that circumstances have changed a bit from the previous 8 years...notably being sold on AR and the depth of his roster.....and the SS factor.....its possible that the change might cause us to witness something we've never really seen before under Ballard. 

 

Just saying, I wouldn't be dismissing a trade up from 15 out of hand because "its not what Ballard does" type of thing.

[richard pallo]

The new rule change effecting kick returns should not be underestimated.  There will be many more returns this year.  The Colts could really upgrade that position by drafting Cooper Dejean at 15.  They would get an outstanding corner in zone coverage that would start opposite Brents and one of the top kick returners in college last year.  Dejean is a first round talent and has been mocked to the Colts at 15.  So Dejean seems like a great pick at 15 for me.  I think he has to be in the mix.

[jvan1973]

36 minutes ago, richard pallo said:

The new rule change effecting kick returns should not be underestimated.  There will be many more returns this year.  The Colts could really upgrade that position by drafting Cooper Dejean at 15.  They would get an outstanding corner in zone coverage that would start opposite Brents and one of the top kick returners in college last year.  Dejean is a first round talent and has been mocked to the Colts at 15.  So Dejean seems like a great pick at 15 for me.  I think he has to be in the mix.

Do you want your first round starting corner returning kicks?   A lot more chance for injuries

[richard pallo]

10 minutes ago, jvan1973 said:

Do you want your first round starting corner returning kicks?   A lot more chance for injuries

That doesn't bother me actually. 

[Jason_]

25 minutes ago, richard pallo said:

That doesn't bother me actually. 

 

It probably should  

[richard pallo]

5 minutes ago, Jason_ said:

 

It probably should  

But it doesn’t.

[Jason_]

3 minutes ago, richard pallo said:

But it doesn’t.

 

fair enough.  I would prefer none of the starters on offense or defense be the primary returner.  

[AwesomeAustin]

2 hours ago, DougDew said:

Yes.  My goal of this entire discussion is to bring out the fact, I believe, that Ballard believes in the concept of blue chip players, and identifies that line every draft.  Its just a matter of whether the value is there to make the trade.   If you think that circumstances have changed a bit from the previous 8 years...notably being sold on AR and the depth of his roster.....and the SS factor.....its possible that the change might cause us to witness something we've never really seen before under Ballard. 

 

Just saying, I wouldn't be dismissing a trade up from 15 out of hand because "its not what Ballard does" type of thing.

I know it will never happen bc of strategy reasons, but I wish a team would show their draft board and how they decide value and ranks of players. It would be so interesting to see how a team goes through the draft process and judges one player vs another. 
 

Plus they could never make public the discussions on drafting someone to possibly replace a player in a year or so. Closest we can get is when scouts and other front office people leave the team setting to do media.  Still, people seem to have an understanding to not overshare the day to day operations. 

[DougDew]

2 hours ago, richard pallo said:

The new rule change effecting kick returns should not be underestimated.  There will be many more returns this year.  The Colts could really upgrade that position by drafting Cooper Dejean at 15.  They would get an outstanding corner in zone coverage that would start opposite Brents and one of the top kick returners in college last year.  Dejean is a first round talent and has been mocked to the Colts at 15.  So Dejean seems like a great pick at 15 for me.  I think he has to be in the mix.

Your pick 15 player won't be returning kicks.  Sorry.

[stitches]

30 minutes ago, DougDew said:

Your pick 15 player won't be returning kicks.  Sorry.

I hope so too... 

[Dobbinblitz]

3 hours ago, richard pallo said:

The new rule change effecting kick returns should not be underestimated.  There will be many more returns this year.  The Colts could really upgrade that position by drafting Cooper Dejean at 15.  They would get an outstanding corner in zone coverage that would start opposite Brents and one of the top kick returners in college last year.  Dejean is a first round talent and has been mocked to the Colts at 15.  So Dejean seems like a great pick at 15 for me.  I think he has to be in the mix.

I agree that Dejean is just flat out very good, productive, and versatile football player. He does have an unofficial RAS of 9.33. I think he will thrive in the box at 230 lbs,  If he did return kicks I believe it would punt returm.

 

 Ballard however, has been targeting players with length for the secondary, and Dejean ran a 4.50 as well.. He is tight in the hips and will struggle if he has to play man.  I like him a lot as well, just not sure he fits Ballard's mold for a CB.

[throwing BBZ]

4 hours ago, DougDew said:

Yes.  My goal of this entire discussion is to bring out the fact, I believe, that Ballard believes in the concept of blue chip players, and identifies that line every draft.  Its just a matter of whether the value is there to make the trade.   If you think that circumstances have changed a bit from the previous 8 years...notably being sold on AR and the depth of his roster.....and the SS factor.....its possible that the change might cause us to witness something we've never really seen before under Ballard. 

 

Just saying, I wouldn't be dismissing a trade up from 15 out of hand because "its not what Ballard does" type of thing.

 

 CB1

WR1

FS1

RG

LB future starter/depth

These are 5 positions that must be filled and developed before will ever have a chance to even have a sniff at a AFC Championship game. This is no time to be spending picks from the first 3 rounds this draft because there are solid prospects as future, much needed starters.  

 Now a 3rd or later from next years draft to help go up and get a guy. Go for it.

[Dobbinblitz]

The Athletic's Bruce Feldman mock today has 5 QB's being selected prior to the 15th pick. He has Penix Jr. going at #13 to the Raiders. If that were to happen it would certainly be good news for the Colts. As many others do, he has Terrion Arnold being selected by the Colts. He speculates that Turner, Mitchell, Thomas , and Bowers all being selected before the Colts pick.

[krunk]

2 hours ago, richard pallo said:

But it doesn’t.

I get peoples concern but Deion Sanders never gave a darn about that. He did punt and kickoff return along with starting. So did Daryl Green. Times have changed I guess.

[ShuteAt168]

The Athletic has the big three WR and Bowers AND Thomas gone when we pick. Surprising because most mocks have Thomas to Colts if we go WR. It seems to be settling in as somewhat of a consensus that we take CB Arnold from Alabama. It’s a good mock because it has anonymous comments from coaches. 

[richard pallo]

25 minutes ago, Dobbinblitz said:

I agree that Dejean is just flat out very good, productive, and versatile football player. He does have an unofficial RAS of 9.33. I think he will thrive in the box at 230 lbs,  If he did return kicks I believe it would punt returm.

 

 Ballard however, has been targeting players with length for the secondary, and Dejean ran a 4.50 as well.. He is tight in the hips and will struggle if he has to play man.  I like him a lot as well, just not sure he fits Ballard's mold for a CB.

I read where he excels in zone coverage and that is part of the reason he is being mocked to the Colts.   Seems like a good fit to me.  His pro day is Monday.  He will run through the drills he couldn’t do at the combine.  It will be interesting to see who will be there from the Colts.

[Stephen]

1 hour ago, ShuteAt168 said:

The Athletic has the big three WR and Bowers AND Thomas gone when we pick. Surprising because most mocks have Thomas to Colts if we go WR. It seems to be settling in as somewhat of a consensus that we take CB Arnold from Alabama. It’s a good mock because it has anonymous comments from coaches. 

If the best wrs are gone trade back then go bpa

[DougDew]

2 hours ago, throwing BBZ said:

 

 CB1

WR1

FS1

RG

LB future starter/depth

These are 5 positions that must be filled and developed before will ever have a chance to even have a sniff at a AFC Championship game. This is no time to be spending picks from the first 3 rounds this draft because there are solid prospects as future, much needed starters.  

 Now a 3rd or later from next years draft to help go up and get a guy. Go for it.

I don't disagree much. 

 

The problem I have with CB1 is, I don't know what that looks like under Gus or Flus.  I know what it looked like with Vontae in press, but zone?.....is there even a real CB1?

 

FS1?  Not sure I need pick 46 for that.  

RG:  I'm fine with French, or rotating FAs, or developing a mid round player.

 

WR1, I would not rely on pick 46 for that.  Its a prospect you think will be better than Pittman.  That prospect is probably ranked in round 1.  JMO.

[jvan1973]

7 minutes ago, DougDew said:

I don't disagree much. 

 

The problem I have with CB1 is, I don't know what that looks like under Gus or Flus.  I know what it looked like with Vontae in press, but zone?.....is there even a real CB1?

 

FS1?  Not sure I need pick 46 for that.  

RG:  I'm fine with French, or rotating FAs, or developing a mid round player.

 

WR1, I would not rely on pick 46 for that.  Its a prospect you think will be better than Pittman.  That prospect is probably ranked in round 1.  JMO.

Richard sherman was hailed as the best CB in the league playing under Bradley.

 

Earl Thomas  and Kam Chancellor were considered amongst the best safties in the league under Bradley 

 

Browner was was a pro bowler under  Bradley 

[holeymoley99]

Dallis Flowers lead the league in Kickoff return average with 31.1 so pretty sure he will get first crack again if healthy. I think rule change makes injury a lot less likely as we have seen when used in other league. I dont think Flowers will be a starter at Corner but we shall see.

[1959Colts]

 

[krunk]

1 hour ago, holeymoley99 said:

Dallis Flowers lead the league in Kickoff return average with 31.1 so pretty sure he will get first crack again if healthy. I think rule change makes injury a lot less likely as we have seen when used in other league. I dont think Flowers will be a starter at Corner but we shall see.

Flowers will start most likely. He was the starter before he got injured.

[holeymoley99]

8 minutes ago, krunk said:

Flowers will start most likely. He was the starter before he got injured.

I'd say it is doubtful he starts, last year he was only competing for the spot vs.Jones who was a rookie late round pick . D. Baker won the other starting spot while Brents was injured).  Flowers played solid but only gained 304 snaps of experience and only had 174 in his career prior so a total of 478 snaps. 

 

Baker  played 467 snaps but didnt play well so likely out of the picture unless a lot of injuries hit.

However Jones played 787 snaps and while not quite hitting Flowers performance levels was far behind.

Then we have the likely scenerio of a 1st or 2nd round pick being drafted (Most mocks have it as a 1, though many mocks have WR as the 1).

 

So for Flowers to start he needs to beat out a high draft pick and Jones and thats if no vet is signed. I'd say Flowers odds are not very good at this point.

[OLD FAN MAN]

8 hours ago, richard pallo said:

That doesn't bother me actually. 

I agree pats had a starter wes welker return kicks for several years, great teams use players however it takes to win regardless of starting position

[Jason_]

5 minutes ago, OLD FAN MAN said:

I agree pats had a starter wes welker return kicks for several years, great teams use players however it takes to win regardless of starting position

 

Was Welker a rookie at the time?

[richard pallo]

14 minutes ago, OLD FAN MAN said:

I agree pats had a starter wes welker return kicks for several years, great teams use players however it takes to win regardless of starting position

That’s right.  You play to win the game.  If your starting WR or CB is also your best kick returner so be it.  

[ColtStrong2013]

21 minutes ago, OLD FAN MAN said:

I agree pats had a starter wes welker return kicks for several years, great teams use players however it takes to win regardless of starting position

“ You ever hear of Wally Pipp?” 

[RollerColt]

3 hours ago, DougDew said:

WR1, I would not rely on pick 46 for that.  Its a prospect you think will be better than Pittman.  That prospect is probably ranked in round 1.  JMO.

And probably gone before pick 15. 

[1959Colts]

13 hours ago, BProland85 said:

Turner is widely looked at as the best edge rusher in this draft. It would be a reach imo to draft Latu or Verse at 15. 

The latest mock drafts, by both CBS and Lance Zierlein, now have Verse being selected ahead of Dallas Turner. Latu is then predicted to go 16th and 19th respectively.