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AR vs Young vs Stroud vs Levis


csmopar

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2 hours ago, Superman said:

 

Define "top tier money." I think if Pittman has production like he had in 2021, or like he set the pace for yesterday, then his market is pretty well defined at around $20m/year, maybe a little bit more. Somewhere in between Terry McLaurin ($22.8m) and Diontae Johnson ($18.3m).

 

Top tier is currently $25-30m, but we're still waiting for Justin Jefferson and Jamarr Chase, so that might go up a bit when their deals are done. 

 

So if 2023 sees Pittman put up 100 catches, 1,200 yards, 7+ TDs, and our new QB gets comfortable with him, are the Colts going to pay him the going rate for a good, second tier WR? They probably will. And if you want someone better than him, you're either looking for highly regarded draft pick, or a $30m/year player in free agency (or both, if you want Tee Higgins who was ironically goose-egged yesterday but will probably be tagged, or Jaylen Waddle who still has another year on his rookie deal). If Richardson looks like he's our guy, we probably need to consider keeping Pittman AND making another meaningful addition at WR.

 

And I'm not writing off Pierce yet, but it's not encouraging that he played 66 snaps and we threw it 37 times, but he only had 3 targets and 1 catch. 

 

Long story short, I think Pittman is one of positives from yesterday's game. And he's probably going to get a nice contract when he hits the market if he keeps this up for the rest of the season.


 

I’d give him $18-$19 mill/year.  Names like amari cooper, Mike Williams, DJ Moore, Keenan Allen are getting $20 mill/year and I don’t think he’s in their level.  Out of those names I just said, you think he should get more than them?  Do you think his “production” is better than theirs?  Out of those names, the only one I’d say is debatable is Mike Williams.  But the other ones, I’d happily do a straight up swap.

 

once again, I agree his production is good, but not WR1 good.  You can’t just point to his stats and say “look he’s a WR1”.  Sorry, what field does he stretch?  Does he command a corner AND a safety because he might score on you at any moment?  No to both of those questions.  If he doesn’t play like an alpha receiver then he’s not one, no matter what the stats say.  Just to show you how much stats don’t tell the story, when Carson wentz was here one thing wentz-apologist said was “well looking at his stats he had a good season” but did he?  Nope.  Look, I’m a homer just like you, but we can’t give him $20mill or more (depending on the market) if people who are making that can do more than him.  To be honest, I’d be willing to give him $20mill but if he wants any more than that I’m fine with him walking.   Now I agree, if there’s no one else out there or we don’t have the draft capital to get us one then yeah, we just have to pay him because we have to have someone.

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22 hours ago, csmopar said:

Going in draft order: all stats per nfl dot com

 

Young- 20/38, 52% completion, 2 INTs, 1 PTD, 145 yards, QBR:48.8(yahoo puts him at 34.9)

 

Stroud- 28/44, 64 % completion, 0 INTs, 0 TDs, 244 yards, QBR-78.0(yahoo puts him at 84.3)

 

AR- 24/37, 65% completion, 1 PTD, 1 RTD, 1 INT, 223 yards, QBR- 89.8(yahoo fantasy ranks him at 108.2)

One QB was left out - Levis.

 

Does anyone know what Levis stats were ? 

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I’m glad we chose AR in hindsight.  Before, I was on the stroud train but after we drafted AR I was warming up more and more to him.  Just from this first game I can tell Shane is doing a great job developing him and AR is putting in the work to get better.  I will say, I will reserve my judgment on Stroud and Young because Stroud is in a HORRIBLE situation and Young, well we know who his coach is.  I don’t think people realized we went toe to toe with a playoff team with rookie HC and a rookie QB.  That is insane.  That game was tough one.  Physical, smash mouth, crazy…and AR didn’t fold not one bit.  Even to the point he tried to truck a headhunter while being tackled just to get a first down.  That’s my QB.

 

people are going to look back on this draft and ask themselves how the heck did anyone pass on AR.  Someone in a sports group I’m apart of called him Cam Newton 2.0.  Can got his team to the Super Bowl and was a good qb before his body gave out on him.  I’ll take Cam Newton 2.0.

 

once we’re able to play to his strength and open up the field, we’re going to be a problem even in our current state.

 

man I wish irsay would’ve just traded JT for waddle straight up.  Then we could’ve used our pick on something else.

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36 minutes ago, smittywerb said:

I’d give him $18-$19 mill/year.  Names like amari cooper, Mike Williams, DJ Moore, Keenan Allen are getting $20 mill/year and I don’t think he’s in their level.  Out of those names I just said, you think he should get more than them?  Do you think his “production” is better than theirs?  Out of those names, the only one I’d say is debatable is Mike Williams.  But the other ones, I’d happily do a straight up swap.

 

once again, I agree his production is good, but not WR1 good.  You can’t just point to his stats and say “look he’s a WR1”.  Sorry, what field does he stretch?  Does he command a corner AND a safety because he might score on you at any moment?  No to both of those questions.  If he doesn’t play like an alpha receiver then he’s not one, no matter what the stats say.  Just to show you how much stats don’t tell the story, when Carson wentz was here one thing wentz-apologist said was “well looking at his stats he had a good season” but did he?  Nope.  Look, I’m a homer just like you, but we can’t give him $20mill or more (depending on the market) if people who are making that can do more than him.  To be honest, I’d be willing to give him $20mill but if he wants any more than that I’m fine with him walking.   Now I agree, if there’s no one else out there or we don’t have the draft capital to get us one then yeah, we just have to pay him because we have to have someone.

 

It kind of seems like a feelings-based resistance to going past $20m/year, but I've been watching the WR market pretty closely and I'm fairly certain that his market is well established. We'll see how the year goes, but his production should be right there with the guys you named, several of whom are on older contracts. Amari Cooper and Keenan Allen signed for $20m/year three years ago, you need to adjust those dramatically. If Pittman signs for that amount now, that's NOT top tier WR money, it's less than 70% of top tier money, which is about where he belongs.

 

I also think you're coming up with arbitrary criteria to measure him against. He doesn't have to stretch the field like the top tier guys, and he doesn't have to be double teamed (he got a lot of attention yesterday, though). He'll be a free agent after this season, and players like him are being paid just over $20m/year, so we can guess what his demands will be. If the Colts don't want to do that, they either have to tag him (at over $20m), or watch him leave. 

 

Ultimately, I think we agree on the type of player he is. I'm just saying it's pointless to compare him to guys who are a tier above him at this point of the season. Right now, he's our best receiver, he had a reasonably good game yesterday, and it's unlikely that anyone else is walking through the door at this point.

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4 minutes ago, Superman said:

 

It kind of seems like a feelings-based resistance to going past $20m/year, but I've been watching the WR market pretty closely and I'm fairly certain that his market is well established. We'll see how the year goes, but his production should be right there with the guys you named, several of whom are on older contracts. Amari Cooper and Keenan Allen signed for $20m/year three years ago, you need to adjust those dramatically. If Pittman signs for that amount now, that's NOT top tier WR money, it's less than 70% of top tier money, which is about where he belongs.

 

I also think you're coming up with arbitrary criteria to measure him against. He doesn't have to stretch the field like the top tier guys, and he doesn't have to be double teamed (he got a lot of attention yesterday, though). He'll be a free agent after this season, and players like him are being paid just over $20m/year, so we can guess what his demands will be. If the Colts don't want to do that, they either have to tag him (at over $20m), or watch him leave. 

 

Ultimately, I think we agree on the type of player he is. I'm just saying it's pointless to compare him to guys who are a tier above him at this point of the season. Right now, he's our best receiver, he had a reasonably good game yesterday, and it's unlikely that anyone else is walking through the door at this point.


 

honestly agree with almost all of this.  I think we disagree on whether he’s a true WR1.  To me, he DOES have to be dynamic because those dynamic WRs get you those Ws and momentum.  Right now, MPJ is our Reggie Wayne and we’re missing our Marvin.  I guess I’m just hard on MPJ because he was suppose to be this tall 50:50 red zone threat receiver and I have yet to see that from him.  
 

 I’m not saying he doesn’t deserve to get paid, but I also don’t agree in overpaying him because he’s all we got, which I’m scared we will do. If just over $20mill is where the market is going for a player like him then I’m all for it.  I’m just using the current market now to show where I believe he sits.

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17 minutes ago, smittywerb said:

honestly agree with almost all of this.  I think we disagree on whether he’s a true WR1.  To me, he DOES have to be dynamic because those dynamic WRs get you those Ws and momentum.  Right now, MPJ is our Reggie Wayne and we’re missing our Marvin.  I guess I’m just hard on MPJ because he was suppose to be this tall 50:50 red zone threat receiver and I have yet to see that from him.  
 

 I’m not saying he doesn’t deserve to get paid, but I also don’t agree in overpaying him because he’s all we got, which I’m scared we will do. If just over $20mill is where the market is going for a player like him then I’m all for it.  I’m just using the current market now to show where I believe he sits.

 

To the bolded, not really. I think you're talking about the dynamic, playmaking, game changing type of player that defenses have to adjust to every week. Pittman is not that, and everyone knows it.

 

But he is our best WR. And I think he has more ability than he gets credit for at times, mostly because he's had bad QBing the past two seasons. I think he'll get 12-14 targets every week, and his numbers are going to be pretty good. And I've been saying since the 2022 offseason, his market is going to be much higher than most fans were ready for, but that's where the market has gone. You should prepare yourself for a DJ Moore / Terry McLaurin type of contract for him, maybe before the season is over.

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The NFL videos of all the plays these guys made is pretty cool.

 

CJ Stroud was better than the numbers. Pretty accurate, throws the ball right into the only spot his guy can get. Made some rookie errors in reads. There's stuff there for them to build with.

 

Bryce Young, I thought he looked the worst of the three. He had the most moments where he just didnt see the field well or seem to realize where rushers would come from. When he had time he was accurate, didnt really throw deep but wasnt accurate when he did. Again, it's building blocks with all these guys. This dude took some brutal hits in this game.

 

AR has the best arm of all three. By far. I think Stroud processes the game better right now and Young probably does too but his arm is going to be an issue when the hits start piling up. Richardson's receivers took some brutal hits, that will have to get better. AR needs to rely less on his feet. AR's speed is real. When AR starts throwing deep, the full experience will be fire. I like Stroud and think Houston have got a QB to build with. I think Richardson's ceiling is the highest but he needs weapons too, all three of these guys do. All three showed something and I look forward to watching their careers. 

 

AR's arm. If Shane Steichen can build this young man up to the full NFL experience, and stay true to that building process, the Colts have hit gold. It'll be bumpy but the ability is off the charts. The kid does need to learn the position and it's clear he's being eased in. 

 

 

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18 hours ago, bluephantom87 said:

 

My two cents... The quicker that Shane realizes as a rookie hc that he is void of multiple skillset players on offense like he had with the Chargers and Eagles the better off he will be moving forward when it comes to situational football. Some of his staple plays will not work on a regular with this unit. The o-line is spotty, the run game is almost non existent and the receivers are avg at best minus Pittman. AR is the closest thing to elite talent on offense but he is a rookie that is raw. JT"s absence is GLARING!!!! If Taylor is going to be moved and is no longer in the plans long term then the Colts need to sign Hunt ASAP!

 

The defense is good enough to keep the Colts  competitive in most games. I'm keeping a close eye on special teams because I think Bubba will be missed. They lost lane discipline on that long punt return that led to the Jags go ahead td.

 

Overall I was pleased with the effort and saw some fight in the team against a playoff team. I think they are headed in the right direction now that we have a talented qb1 to groom but he can't do it alone. The focus should be to put as much playmaking talent around him so he can truly blossom. Go Colts!

 

You hit on multiple points but the most accurate one was saying AR5 can't do it alone. 

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19 minutes ago, Colt.45 said:

Bryce Young, I thought he looked the worst of the three. He had the most moments where he just didnt see the field well or seem to realize where rushers would come from. When he had time he was accurate, didnt really throw deep but wasnt accurate when he did. Again, it's building blocks with all these guys. This dude took some brutal hits in this game.

Just watching those highlights, nobody had as much time as Bryce Young to throw. He had all day on most of them. I've never questioned his ability to play the game. I'm going to chalk this game up to bad coaching. 

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25 minutes ago, thunderkyss said:

Just watching those highlights, nobody had as much time as Bryce Young to throw. He had all day on most of them. I've never questioned his ability to play the game. I'm going to chalk this game up to bad coaching. 

Jessie Bates is a really good safety. I remember him getting Andrew Luck a couple times all those years ago but yeah he had some good pockets. 

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8 hours ago, Superman said:

 

To the bolded, not really. I think you're talking about the dynamic, playmaking, game changing type of player that defenses have to adjust to every week. Pittman is not that, and everyone knows it.

 

But he is our best WR. And I think he has more ability than he gets credit for at times, mostly because he's had bad QBing the past two seasons. I think he'll get 12-14 targets every week, and his numbers are going to be pretty good. And I've been saying since the 2022 offseason, his market is going to be much higher than most fans were ready for, but that's where the market has gone. You should prepare yourself for a DJ Moore / Terry McLaurin type of contract for him, maybe before the season is over.


 

oh yeah, I have no doubt there will be a market for him because he’s a productive receiver.  Even if I don’t think he is a WR1, a team will be sure to pick him up and there will be a team ready to over pay to get him.  

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15 hours ago, smittywerb said:


 

honestly agree with almost all of this.  I think we disagree on whether he’s a true WR1.  To me, he DOES have to be dynamic because those dynamic WRs get you those Ws and momentum.  Right now, MPJ is our Reggie Wayne and we’re missing our Marvin.  I guess I’m just hard on MPJ because he was suppose to be this tall 50:50 red zone threat receiver and I have yet to see that from him.  
 

 I’m not saying he doesn’t deserve to get paid, but I also don’t agree in overpaying him because he’s all we got, which I’m scared we will do. If just over $20mill is where the market is going for a player like him then I’m all for it.  I’m just using the current market now to show where I believe he sits.

 

 Pittman is very reliable and we saw him make good catches in tight windows and get hit hard doing it. And yes our offense desperately needs a fast, lightning quick #1.  lol  Reggie and Marvin both were superb at getting 

Open using great footwork and speed. And not taking hits doing it.

 So much of that occurred though by playing with Manning for multiple years, with Manning taking every practice snap, so they developed exact timing.

 So what we call Pittman not getting separation is more two players having to learn to read the defense the same so the QB can release his throw before his receivers make their break. 

 This was something Luck still couldn't/wouldn't do (accurately for sure) 4 years in except at times with TY.

 

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1 hour ago, throwing BBZ said:

So what we call Pittman not getting separation is more two players having to learn to read the defense the same so the QB can release his throw before his receivers make their break. 

That would be nice to see.

 

I think the NFL as a whole is trending away from that though.  Watching a lot of games this weekend and, frankly, the "athlete QB" is boring.  I think the trend is for HC to take the safe play...the athlete Qb scrambling for an 8 yard gain rather than the thrower Qb throwing a pretty 20 yard deep out with great timing.

 

I don't know if AR is really ever going to be coached to throw those patterns.  And I think Wrs are going to be more YAC players with physicality like AJ Brown or juke like Jamar Chase.  Or shifty possession pattern runners like Downs.  Pitt isn't either of those, but he'd be a great Drew Pearson type of deep out guy if the NFL would produce more throwers.

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10 minutes ago, DougDew said:

That would be nice to see.

 

I think the NFL as a whole is trending away from that though.  Watching a lot of games this weekend and, frankly, the "athlete QB" is boring.  I think the trend is for HC to take the safe play...the athlete Qb scrambling for an 8 yard gain rather than the thrower Qb throwing a pretty 20 yard deep out with great timing.

 

I don't know if AR is really ever going to be coached to throw those patterns.  And I think Wrs are going to be more YAC players with physicality like AJ Brown or juke like Jamar Chase.  Or shifty possession pattern runners like Downs.  Pitt isn't either of those, but he'd be a great Drew Pearson type of deep out guy if the NFL would produce more throwers.

 

 

Pittman was a YAC monster with a quick release guy like Rivers. That is what AR will learn, don't need the big shot for the big yardage most of the time if you can hit your pass catchers in stride, will take a while for that to evolve. Every once in a while, the deep shot needs to be called to keep Ds honest when you get 1-on-1s on the outside. Otherwise, most of the NFL has a shortage of outstanding OL pass blocking giving more than 3 seconds that the underneath game in the 5-15 yard range ends up what QBs tend to go for with/without YAC. Even the Chiefs, once they lost Hill, went to that formula.

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7 minutes ago, chad72 said:

 

 

Pittman was a YAC monster with a quick release guy like Rivers. That is what AR will learn, don't need the big shot for the big yardage most of the time if you can hit your pass catchers in stride, will take a while for that to evolve. Every once in a while, the deep shot needs to be called to keep Ds honest when you get 1-on-1s on the outside. Otherwise, most of the NFL has a shortage of outstanding OL pass blocking giving more than 3 seconds that the underneath game in the 5-20 yard range ends up what QBs tend to go for with/without YAC.

Oh Pitt can have YAC, but I don't think he's a tackle breaker or a juke the defender guy.  With the deep out, the tall lanky WR gets open for the split second when the ball gets there...even a little high maybe..... then he dives out of bounds avoiding contact.  I think Pitt would really shine as that kind of receiver rather than asking him to go over the middle or run WR screens, etc. (easier throws for the QB)

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2 hours ago, throwing BBZ said:

 

 Pittman is very reliable and we saw him make good catches in tight windows and get hit hard doing it. And yes our offense desperately needs a fast, lightning quick #1.  lol  Reggie and Marvin both were superb at getting 

Open using great footwork and speed. And not taking hits doing it.

 So much of that occurred though by playing with Manning for multiple years, with Manning taking every practice snap, so they developed exact timing.

 So what we call Pittman not getting separation is more two players having to learn to read the defense the same so the QB can release his throw before his receivers make their break. 

 This was something Luck still couldn't/wouldn't do (accurately for sure) 4 years in except at times with TY.

 


 

I mean, I agree with this too. Lol

 

i don’t know why when you give an opinion that Pittman is a WR2 you’re saying he’s bad. I don’t think he’s not a good player.  That’s why I made the comparison of Marvin and Wayne.  One was clearly the WR1 and the other was a WR2 fringe WR1.  Doesn’t mean I’m saying Reggie was not good because he was way more than that. 

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37 minutes ago, DougDew said:

Oh Pitt can have YAC, but I don't think he's a tackle breaker or a juke the defender guy.  With the deep out, the tall lanky WR gets open for the split second when the ball gets there...even a little high maybe..... then he dives out of bounds avoiding contact.  I think Pitt would really shine as that kind of receiver rather than asking him to go over the middle or run WR screens, etc. (easier throws for the QB)

Pitt is best on crossers and those screens. 

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34 minutes ago, smittywerb said:


 

I mean, I agree with this too. Lol

 

i don’t know why when you give an opinion that Pittman is a WR2 you’re saying he’s bad. I don’t think he’s not a good player.  That’s why I made the comparison of Marvin and Wayne.  One was clearly the WR1 and the other was a WR2 fringe WR1.  Doesn’t mean I’m saying Reggie was not good because he was way more than that. 

 

 Reggie became an Elite route runner and had as good of hands as anyone.

He Set DB's with incredible footwork, while Marvin did that and had incredible speed. We need a Marvinish kinda guy.

 Pittman would be showing more 1ish level play if he could have developed all of his years with a  Phillip Rivers. This year won't show his full potential either. 

 I hope he gets to play a full season. He is playing for his next contract and looking at game one I see a warrior that is going to prove to be very valuable to our success.

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1 hour ago, throwing BBZ said:

 

 Reggie became an Elite route runner and had as good of hands as anyone.

He Set DB's with incredible footwork, while Marvin did that and had incredible speed. We need a Marvinish kinda guy.

 Pittman would be showing more 1ish level play if he could have developed all of his years with a  Phillip Rivers. This year won't show his full potential either. 

 I hope he gets to play a full season. He is playing for his next contract and looking at game one I see a warrior that is going to prove to be very valuable to our success.


All of what you’re saying might be true but does that make Reggie an alpha dog WR1?  No it doesn’t.  Maybe I need to define WR1.  A WR1 is a player who can do things very well in all facets of being a wide receiver (maybe besides blocking).  That means they have good hands, good route running, good downfield presence (which includes speed and ability to separate downfield).  not just one or two of those things.  
 

those are things you need to be an alpha WR.  Being an alpha WR means that you command so much attention, the defense needs to know where you are at all times because any play you can break them for a touchdown or huge gain.  Now I love Pittman, but he’s not that.  Yeah, the defense can adjust to him but they don’t have to change the entire defense which allows them to do what they want.  Like let’s be real, the jags stacked the box pretty much the entire game and we could not beat them deep not once.  I’m sorry, his stats do look good, but it isn’t the entire story.  
 

I hope we keep him because he’s a VERY good WR2 but I also hope we go out and get a MHJ or an alpha receiver in FA or trade.  Idk, maybe Pierce will wake up and be our deep threat so Pittman doesn’t have to beat teams deep.  Who knows.

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32 minutes ago, w87r said:

PFF scores of rookie QBs:

Young - 31.4

Stroud - 55.2

Richardson - 49.3

 

 

 

Don't think any other rookie QB got any snaps.

 

Nice one, thanks for sharing this. It certainly matches what I was saying above...Stroud was better than his final numbers. Young probably worse than his final numbers.

AR = unicorn learning to walk. 

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On 9/10/2023 at 10:37 PM, PuntersArePeopleToo said:

I'm in agreement on a lot of this, hull was hurt though why he stopped playing. Funk looked better than Jackson. I think if moss is back and hull are healthy, no Jackson seen on offense. I'd even consider promoting funk and dropping Jackson 

Right, at the time I made this post I wasn't aware Hull was hurt. My bad, I was watching NFL redzone more. I missed the injury. It sucks!! 

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On 9/10/2023 at 10:33 PM, csmopar said:

Hull got hurt early. That’s why he was out

I said it in the game day, Pittman is good for one outstanding series a game, then he’ll go ghost. Which he did right after the TD

Yep, I didn't realize it I had a new toy called NFL Redzone. I was ticked off finding out Hull was injured. See the team as no stress in a slim RB stable down

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17 minutes ago, PuntersArePeopleToo said:

All good! It sucked that he got hurt on a penalty called play.

 

I'm hoping Moss can play and funk gets time over Jackson 

Me too about Moss.. Hopefully he isn't back on a pitch count and back full time. I would rather see Jackson cut right now. @ fumbles like that ugh. I can't forgive ...🫣

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18 hours ago, Restinpeacesweetchloe said:

Cool video talking about all 3 QB. Interesting how young was the one who was most ready and stroud and Richardson looked the most calm and ready.

 

 

 

Context is necessary so I gotta say I think Frank Reich will need to pull back his offense some because he doesnt appear to have pared down anything. Bryce isnt Andrew Luck. 

Richardson got a very pared down, rookie friendly offense. 

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I'm really glad we selected AR! I wasn't down with it at first some months before the draft but Stitches helped me buy in. Stroud would have been good for us as well, but AR just fits with Steichen like a glove. I think Young will eventually put it together but his size just really sticks out to me and these NFL D linemen are chasing him down more than they did in College. Ballard definitely made the right decision. And I completely love AR 5 competitive fire! I think it's on par with Luck and Manning. This kid is a fearless competitor. He carries himself like he is made for the moment. You can tell he wants to be great. And we know he puts in the work.

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Thru two weeks, more of the same. 

I really like Stroud. He's going to be at least Kirk Cousins level good in this league, and that's saying something. How much he wins will depend on the coaching and what he's surrounded with but I like CJ and i think he's been very good thru 2.

 

Bryce Young. It's only two weeks but Frank Reich's already having to answer questions that many on this board had last season and the season before. Young just isn't seeing the field well. He's looked poor. The NFL is no easy task so i'm not writing his funeral after two weeks. It's just rough when CJ and AR look ready and unflappable and Bryce's strengths have been displayed by those two while Bryce has shown little of it, and obviously little of the strengths AR has (which are not a possibility for Young).

 

AR displayed another aspect of his game entirely over the quarter (+) he played. I want to hold onto my horses but the kid is showing signs of being special. It's the little things. He still hasn't played a full game yet. The things he was supposedly going to be terrible at are pure strengths so far. This season isnt about winning or losing, this is my mantra. It's all about the growth of The Kid. It's so clear that Steichen's doing this the patient way yet I gotta say looking VERY good so far. Be happy people, be very happy. Touch wood that the health issues stay away, that's his biggest enemy right now.

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10 minutes ago, Restinpeacesweetchloe said:

Good video here how Tepper got too involved in the quarterback process for panthers during the draft.

 

 

Yeah, these media pieces are going to keep coming out until Bryce gets good, or the coach gets fired. The media has found something juicy to latch on. Frank had better turn on every trick he knows to get that young man firing quickly. Indy was more patient than Carolina will be

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