Colts have 4th pick (Official Discussion Thread)

[chad72]

4 minutes ago, DougDew said:

IMO, trading up to pick #1 should involve a generational type of QB.   Some of the QBs taken #1 in the past have been that type.  Others have not been generational but at the time were the best QBs of a decent QB class.  Luck was generational, Manning, Elway. Lawrence were thought to be..and some others.  Most of these have the total package...including HEIGHT and body type.

 

Yes, there are other great QBs NOT taken #1 but that's a different topic.

 

IIRC, QBs like Baker Mayfield, Kyler Murray, Joe Burrow, etc were QBs that were taken by their teams who were ALREADY at the #1 pick.  They needed a QB and simply selected their favorite.  There was no trade up.  (And Burrow has turned out to be better than thought at the time...that is another issue)

 

So ask, is this a QB class with a generational QB in it, or are we talking about simply wanting to take our favorite QB of a less than generational QB class.   

 

Maybe that should help us gauge whether or not we want Ballard to trade up for our favorite.

 

How many teams have truly had a chance to trade up to No.1? Most of them would not have given up that opportunity to draft their QB - Colts, Cardinals, Bengals, Browns included. A lot of those got offers and rejected them because they were set on getting their guy.

 

Bears being at No.1 gives us a rare opportunity. At the top, you and I would prefer C J Stroud over Bryce Young, 100%. Probably Ballard too. Plus the odds of us being at No.4 again is also low. Moving to a Top 2 slot from 6-10 would probably require more than being at No.4, goes without saying, and that is where we would end up in the future if we had another stink of a season like this one. 

 

Can you win with another QB? Probably yes. Any team can in a team sport. However, if you feel the QB at No.1 would give you a better floor and as good a ceiling than the QB at No.4, you have to take the shot when you are close enough. The thing about draft picks, you get a new set of picks every year and can make up for lost draft equity or can manufacture them in future trades, unlike dead cap space if being aggressive in FA strikes out. I would rather them be aggressive in the draft than FA.

[Two_pound]

I've watched Stroud play these past 2 seasons and even said last year he will be the top pick in this years draft. I would do what it takes to move up to 1 and make sure we get him. His accuracy is incredible. Strong arm, high football iq, wants to beat you with his arm, not his legs. Stroud is so far ahead of any one else in this draft there is no comparison.

[Patrick Miller]

So how mad would everyone be if we sign jimmy g on a one year deal….trade back…pick up some more picks and take Anthony Richardson later in round one?

[chad72]

2 minutes ago, Patrick Miller said:

So how mad would everyone be if we sign jimmy g on a one year deal….trade back…pick up some more picks and take Anthony Richardson later in round one?

 

The true question is, what is the guarantee that the Raiders at 7, Falcons at 8 and Panthers at 9 won't take Richardson by over drafting him? There is a GREAT chance of that strategy backfiring on us.

 

Better to have swung and missed on a QB you want than never to get the swing at all and continuing to kick the can down the road while the roster gets another year older. No guarantee we will be this close at No.4 in the future either. 

[throwing BBZ]

 

 Stroud one day might be a Matt Ryan and get you to a SB.
 Young a Drew Brees and do the same.

  Your nexy guy could be a Matt Stafford and in 10 years have a great TEAM and win a SB.
  But NONE of them will consistently knock on the door without a LOADED roster with excellent coaching.
 So Please trade back for a few nice picks, draft Richardson, and see where that road takes you. I believe it would be exciting as h***!!!
  
  

[Two_pound]

What we really have to be careful of is the raiders, panthers, falcons or even the Seahawks jumping up to 1. We need to get there first. The Bears probably wouldn't want to drop that far anyways, but you never know.

[chad72]

2 minutes ago, Two_pound said:

What we really have to be careful of is the raiders, panthers, falcons or even the Seahawks jumping up to 1. We need to get there first. The Bears probably wouldn't want to drop that far anyways, but you never know.

 

I would be more worried about them jumping to No.3 than to No.1, which would be more cost prohibitive once you get to No.6 or 7, IMO. Our move to No.1 guards against teams wanting to move to No.3. Seahawks at No.5 would be the one I would worry most about because Raiders, Falcons or Panthers would have to surrender 2024 and 2025 first rounders to convince the Bears to move that far back. However, Seahawks seem content to work around Geno Smith and I really doubt they move up to No.1 whatsoever. Bears will still get their pick of Anderson or Carter at No.4

[NFLfan]

5 hours ago, stitches said:

Yep, that's one of the worst draft narratives that still persist nowadays. X school doesn't produce good players at Y position, so don't draft that guy. I have no idea why people still fall for this logical fallacy.

 

Scout the player, not the helmet. If there is a specific reason related to the skills or attributes of the player you think will hinder the player from panning out in the NFL, let's hear it. There are legitimate reason for us to think that Bryce Young or CJ Stroud might not succeed. Alabama/Ohio state don't produce QBs is not one of them.

 

Yep, I agree but I find myself thinking that at times, which is wrong. 

 

Someone may have already posted this but I got this from the Athletic today. Here is the first pick of Dane Bugler's MOCK DRAFT:

 

Quote

Round 1

1. Indianapolis Colts (via Chicago): Bryce Young, QB, Alabama

Projected trade: No. 1 for Nos. 4, 35 and a 2024 first-round pick

 

This trade makes sense for both sides. The Colts have a clear need at quarterback, with an owner and general manager who are motivated to get it right. Colts GM Chris Ballard, who was previously a scout in Chicago, is very familiar with Bears GM Ryan Poles — the two worked together for four years in the Chiefs’ front office. This would mark the third time over the last 25 years that the Colts held the No. 1 pick. It worked out well the other two times: Peyton Manning and Andrew Luck.

Bryce Young is a complete outlier from a size perspective and would be somewhat off-type for Ballard, but Young’s instincts, vision and accuracy as a passer are the traits worth betting on at the position. It won’t be a driving reason behind a trade up, but sniping Young ahead of division foe Houston would be an added benefit.

 

https://theathletic.com/4097059/2023/01/17/2023-nfl-mock-draft-dane-brugler?source=user-shared-article 

 

(Folks, this is just a MOCK DRAFT, not the real thing.)

[chad72]

13 hours ago, runthepost said:

Name the last great QB to come from LSU not named Burrow or the last QB to come from Texas Tech not named Mahomes

 

Great point!!!

 

However, it makes it easier for everyone to bump up Marvin Harrison Jr. because of a) pedigree b) ex-Colt nostalgia and c) Ohio State WRs have done very well in the NFL bandwagon thinkers  

[Jason_]

1 minute ago, NFLfan said:

 

Yep, I agree but I find myself saying that at times.

 

Someone may have already posted this but I got this from the Athletic today. Here is the first pick of Dane Bugler's MOCK DRAFT:

 

 

https://theathletic.com/4097059/2023/01/17/2023-nfl-mock-draft-dane-brugler?source=user-shared-article 

 

(Folks, this is just a MOCK DRAFT, not the real thing.)

 

I can't believe Ballard gave up a first round pick next year!!! There is NO QB in the coming draft worth that draft haul.  Now, we're gonna have another crap year and our top 5 pick next year (possibly #1 overall) will go to the Bears!!! Irsay should fire Ballard right now...of all the mistakes he's made over the years, this is the BIGGEST!!!

 

 

wait...did you say NOT the real thing?  

[NFLfan]

Just now, J@son said:

wait...did you say NOT the real thing?  

 

Lol. I was compelled to write that because some folks will argue as if it is the real thing. It is just food for thought. 

[Jason_]

2 minutes ago, NFLfan said:

 

Lol. I was compelled to write that because some folks will argue as if it is the real thing.

 

Oh absolutely someone would have or still will. lol

[jvan1973]

14 hours ago, csmopar said:

https://247sports.com/college/alabama/LongFormArticle/Every-Alabama-Football-first-round-NFL-draft-pick-of-the-Nick-Saban-era-186760372/Amp/
 

 

wow the best performing player taken from

Bama and the only one still currently with the team that drafted him…. Our very own Ryan Kelly

Amari Cooper, Jerry Jeudy,  Minka Fitzpatrick,  CJ Mosley, Patrick Surtain,  

[runthepost]

6 minutes ago, jvan1973 said:

Amari Cooper, Jerry Jeudy,  Minka Fitzpatrick,  CJ Mosley, Patrick Surtain,  

Can’t believe he said Ryan Kelly when Johnathan Allen destroyed him this year.

[Fluke_33]

11 hours ago, richard pallo said:

So you think it doesn’t matter to Ballard which quarterback he drafts if the Texans trade up.  He will pick from what’s left.  I have a feeling he has one he wants more than the others.

Agreed.  if he wants a qb there is no way that he just waits to see what is left.  He will move up to take the one that he wants.

[runthepost]

15 hours ago, csmopar said:

https://247sports.com/college/alabama/LongFormArticle/Every-Alabama-Football-first-round-NFL-draft-pick-of-the-Nick-Saban-era-186760372/Amp/
 

 

wow the best performing player taken from

Bama and the only one still currently with the team that drafted him…. Our very own Ryan Kelly

This is false

[Fluke_33]

10 hours ago, Wage said:

Richardson will be the best QB in this draft. If there were a way to trade back and still get him, that is the play. Unfortunately I think after the combine he is a lock to go top 10 at worst. 

IF you think that he will be the best then you take him at 4.  You do not take that risk.  

[Restinpeacesweetchloe]

I don’t know why everyone is so against moving up. If a player you want is good enough to take a four that means you believe he can be the franchise. So why rams the risk of losing the player you want.

[danlhart87]

48 minutes ago, chad72 said:

 

Great point!!!

 

However, it makes it easier for everyone to bump up Marvin Harrison Jr. because of a) pedigree b) ex-Colt nostalgia and c) Ohio State WRs have done very well in the NFL bandwagon thinkers  

Oddly enough JSN is my #1 WR

[KB]

1 minute ago, Restinpeacesweetchloe said:

I don’t know why everyone is so against moving up. If a player you want is good enough to take a four that means you believe he can be the franchise. So why rams the risk of losing the player you want.

The issue is a player you want part. Ballard might not want any player in particular. If he does want one specific player he will (at least he has said he would), but to trade up to 1 to just make sure we get a qb would be a problem. It'll take a lot of draft capitol to get to one. If you get that pick wrong after giving up the trade you have absolutely ruined the team for the foreseeable future.

[Stephen]

1 hour ago, DougDew said:

IMO, trading up to pick #1 should involve a generational type of QB.   Some of the QBs taken #1 in the past have been that type.  Others have not been generational but at the time were the best QBs of a decent QB class.  Luck was generational, Manning, Elway. Lawrence were thought to be..and some others.  Most of these have the total package...including HEIGHT and body type.

 

Yes, there are other great QBs NOT taken #1 but that's a different topic.

 

IIRC, QBs like Baker Mayfield, Kyler Murray, Joe Burrow, etc were QBs that were taken by their teams who were ALREADY at the #1 pick.  They needed a QB and simply selected their favorite.  There was no trade up.  (And Burrow has turned out to be better than thought at the time...that is another issue)

 

So ask, is this a QB class with a generational QB in it, or are we talking about simply wanting to take our favorite QB of a less than generational QB class.   

 

Maybe that should help us gauge whether or not we want Ballard to trade up for our favorite.

I always felt Burrow was better than Lawrence. 

[Stephen]

1 hour ago, Patrick Miller said:

So how mad would everyone be if we sign jimmy g on a one year deal….trade back…pick up some more picks and take Anthony Richardson later in round one?

He is made of glass if we signed him richardson would still start before seasons end.

[Restinpeacesweetchloe]

6 minutes ago, KB said:

The issue is a player you want part. Ballard might not want any player in particular. If he does want one specific player he will (at least he has said he would), but to trade up to 1 to just make sure we get a qb would be a problem. It'll take a lot of draft capitol to get to one. If you get that pick wrong after giving up the trade you have absolutely ruined the team for the foreseeable future.

Ok that was my point.  I think fans are putting their personal opinion into these QB when the only opinion that matters is does Ballard think there is one to move up for. Doesn’t matter what fans think.

[KB]

1 minute ago, Restinpeacesweetchloe said:

Ok that was my point.  I think fans are putting their personal opinion into these QB when the only opinion that matters is does Ballard think there is one to move up for. Doesn’t matter what fans think.

Wouldn't that apply to your opinion as well? Not as a fan but if he decides to not move up.

[chad72]

14 minutes ago, KB said:

The issue is a player you want part. Ballard might not want any player in particular. If he does want one specific player he will (at least he has said he would), but to trade up to 1 to just make sure we get a qb would be a problem. It'll take a lot of draft capitol to get to one. If you get that pick wrong after giving up the trade you have absolutely ruined the team for the foreseeable future.

 

Nope, you may have a reset in a couple of years when the draft picks are back but as we saw with Daniel Jones, with the right HC, you can maximize the investment on the QB. But as fans, we are quick to judge and abandon ship fast once things go south. You still have to hit on other draft picks and make key FA moves as part of the puzzle. It just doesn't stop with 1 trade up. All this talk of giving up on a rookie QB after 1 year is nonsense to me, that just means your scouting and GM have to go if you are that bad on evaluating a QB that isn't good enough after 1 year, that you went with eye candy instead of thorough scouting.

[BProland85]

1 hour ago, Patrick Miller said:

So how mad would everyone be if we sign jimmy g on a one year deal….trade back…pick up some more picks and take Anthony Richardson later in round one?

I wouldn't hate that idea at all. I would love the idea of adding extra 2024 1sts, while still getting a QB like Anthony Richardson later in round 1. That would give Indy the flexibility to address other areas of need in 2024, or possibly look to get one of Caleb Williams or Drake Maye if they dont see it with Richardson after a full year of having him. 

[coming on strong]

 

[KB]

Just now, chad72 said:

 

Nope, you may have a reset in a couple of years when the draft picks are back but as we saw with Daniel Jones, with the right HC, you can maximize the investment on the QB. But as fans, we are quick to judge and abandon ship fast once things go south. You still have to hit on other draft picks and make key FA moves as part of the puzzle.

But if you give away a good amount fo picks, you have to make sure that pick is absolutely the right choice. Yes the HC will need to have the right scheme, and the roster will need to be built with the right players, but if you're giving away good players and picks for the #1 you must absolutely have the right choice there. If you don't the rest dosnt matter.

[chad72]

2 minutes ago, KB said:

But if you give away a good amount fo picks, you have to make sure that pick is absolutely the right choice. Yes the HC will need to have the right scheme, and the roster will need to be built with the right players, but if you're giving away good players and picks for the #1 you must absolutely have the right choice there. If you don't the rest doesnt matter.

 

The rest will still matter till the right QB comes along. Seahawks didn't stop drafting and stockpiling talent during their down years after Hasselback's prime was done after 2010. They kept waiting till the right QB came along and the stockpiled talent augmented the margin for error for the new QB Russell Wilson. We didn't lose just because of Matt Ryan, football is a team sport and a lot of our losses had plenty of blame to go around.

[IrsaysArmy]

1 hour ago, Patrick Miller said:

So how mad would everyone be if we sign jimmy g on a one year deal….trade back…pick up some more picks and take Anthony Richardson later in round one?

Enough to not just blindly love this team 

[throwing BBZ]

1 hour ago, chad72 said:

 

The true question is, what is the guarantee that the Raiders at 7, Falcons at 8 and Panthers at 9 won't take Richardson by over drafting him? There is a GREAT chance of that strategy backfiring on us.

 

Better to have swung and missed on a QB you want than never to get the swing at all and continuing to kick the can down the road while the roster gets another year older. No guarantee we will be this close at No.4 in the future either. 

 

 Or, the true questions are, as this is just a point of view pre FA signings, who will those teams in particular have signed to be their starter?
 What will be a consensus post Combine on Richardsons long term prospects?
 And how good will Ballards info be regarding the teams drafting behind us regarding who they are intererested in?
 One thing is a given. Each QB that they research will be given a draft grade.
And as i understand it it will have nothing to do based on peer comparison.
 It is just a grade. IF, there is a player with an Elite grade say 95, and the next 2 are at 89 meaning they have a high probability of being 1st year starters and be very good, Ballard/Irsay would no doubt check the cost to move up and make a judgement. But it should not be, whatever it takes. 
 Elway took 16-17 years and a great team and RB to finally win one.
Manning finally won one with a VG D, and a running game, and Rex Grossman. It IS NOT a clear choice.

[Knuckles79]

1 hour ago, throwing BBZ said:

 

 Stroud one day might be a Matt Ryan and get you to a SB.
 Young a Drew Brees and do the same.

  Your nexy guy could be a Matt Stafford and in 10 years have a great TEAM and win a SB.
  But NONE of them will consistently knock on the door without a LOADED roster with excellent coaching.
 So Please trade back for a few nice picks, draft Richardson, and see where that road takes you. I believe it would be exciting 

I would take Matt Ryan Drew Brees and Matt Stafford 10 times on Sunday over Cam Newton. Excitement wins you some games but availability is what matters. 

[throwing BBZ]

10 minutes ago, chad72 said:

 

The rest will still matter till the right QB comes along. Seahawks didn't stop drafting and stockpiling talent during their down years after Hasselback's prime was done after 2010. They kept waiting till the right QB came along and the stockpiled talent augmented the margin for error for the new QB Russell Wilson. We didn't lose just because of Matt Ryan, football is a team sport and a lot of our losses had plenty of blame to go around.

 

 Yip. We were sloppy, and IMO, our blocking other than OL, was absolutely 2nd rate. I think it stunk.

[RollerColt]

 

Young vs. LSU. Every throw and run for those interested. 

[KB]

8 minutes ago, chad72 said:

 

The rest will still matter till the right QB comes along. Seahawks didn't stop drafting and stockpiling talent during their down years after Hasselback's prime was done after 2010. They kept waiting till the right QB came along and the stockpiled talent augmented the margin for error for the new QB Russell Wilson. We didn't lose just because of Matt Ryan, football is a team sport and a lot of our losses had plenty of blame to go around.

Ok, you're right the rest does still matter, but that's more reason not to sell the farm to get the #1 pick to just make sure we take a QB. Not every pick hits for any GM and we need as many as possible.

 

I'm not against trading to number 1, but it can't be to make sure we take a qb this draft. If we stay at 4 and the top 3 are gone then so be it go with Will Anderson.

[throwing BBZ]

2 minutes ago, Knuckles79 said:

I would take Matt Ryan Drew Brees and Matt Stafford 10 times on Sunday over Cam Newton. Excitement wins you some games but availability is what matters. 

 

 Newton was a fullback.

 Richardson is a big race horse. And what his upside is as a passer, will be looked at regarding his FB IQ, and if he can be coached up on his footwork/fundamentals. 

 I see a whole lot to work with watching him.

[chad72]

6 minutes ago, KB said:

Ok, you're right the rest does still matter, but that's more reason not to sell the farm to get the #1 pick to just make sure we take a QB. Not every pick hits for any GM and we need as many as possible.

 

I'm not against trading to number 1, but it can't be to make sure we take a qb this draft. If we stay at 4 and the top 3 are gone then so be it go with Will Anderson.

 

QB is the only one I would trade up to No.1 for, w.r.t value of the position for any NFL team. So most will disagree with you on this front. No one trades up to No.1 for a pass rusher or cornerback or WR, they don't touch the ball every snap. There is no such thing as a perfect prospect. You live in some Utopia, man.

[KB]

Just now, chad72 said:

 

QB is the only one I would trade up to No.1 for, w.r.t value of the position for any NFL team. So most will disagree with you on this front.

You misunderstood what I said. I'm saying not to trade up to 1 just to make sure that you get a qb in round 1. If they think a qb is a franchise guy then yes do it, but not to just make sure that you get a qb early.

[chad72]

13 minutes ago, KB said:

You misunderstood what I said. I'm saying not to trade up to 1 just to make sure that you get a qb in round 1. If they think a qb is a franchise guy then yes do it, but not to just make sure that you get a qb early.

 

Hey, even Andrew Luck threw INTs but also made game changing plays to win us games. But then, we were at the No.1 pick and didn't have to sweat about working trades till the 3rd round when Arians vouched hard for T Y Hilton we traded up for. For all his hype, Andrew Luck didn't ever give us a Top 2 seed in the AFC, nor did we beat Brady and the Patriots in 6 tries, neither did Peyton in his first 6 tries, if I remember right. Peyton didn't go to a SB till year 9. Then when Elway signed all those FAs in Denver, Peyton went to as many SBs in 4 years as he went to as a Colt.

 

Bottom line, there is NO such thing as a perfect prospect. If you think you can win a lot of games with that QB and mold him into your franchise QB, you have to take the chance and provide plenty of support, with draft picks and/or FA. 

[throwing BBZ]

15 minutes ago, RollerColt said:

 

Young vs. LSU. Every throw and run for those interested. 

 

    Playing against a pro style defense he looked awful. His arm strength reminded me of Ryan now. You want him you take him.

 Based on this tape, if he played for Iowa State would we have ever heard of him?

  Prove me wrong young man.