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Colts have 4th pick (Official Discussion Thread)


danlhart87

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2 minutes ago, Indyfan4life said:

Lol… You’re LITERALLY explaining this like Superman said in that you’re expecting everything to always go perfect. What if all receivers are covered and can’t get open? What if a blocker falls and has a free rush on the QB? By your logic, Manning and Brady should have NEVER had any rushing attempts in their careers. What about Brees or Favre? This perfect world of progressing through every read on every offensive snap or just throwing the ball away, even if our guy has a WIDE OPEN lane to run it and extend the game doesn’t exist. How many times did Brees/Favre/Rodgers run the ball when necessary to extend a play or get into field goal range to win?

Throw the ball away...Jesus.   Line up again the next down....or the next series of downs your properly rostered D gives you in a few football minutes.   How often in the NFL does the QB need to be an athletic unicorn to extend a play for four seconds or to run 7 yards for a FD?

 

If the QB has throw the ball a way a lot, I'm firing the GM for incompetent drafting of receivers and olinemen...or the coaching staff....or both.

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5 minutes ago, DougDew said:

Throw the ball away...Jesus.   Line up again the next down....or the next series of downs your properly rostered D gives you in a few football minutes.   How often in the NFL does the QB need to be an athletic unicorn to extend a play for four seconds or to run 7 yards for a FD?

 

If the QB has throw the ball a way a lot, I'm firing the GM for incompetent drafting of receivers and olinemen...or the coaching staff....or both.

If this happened, they would have 50% completion %. 

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9 minutes ago, DougDew said:

Throw the ball away...Jesus.   Line up again the next down....or the next series of downs your properly rostered D gives you in a few football minutes.   How often in the NFL does the QB need to be an athletic unicorn to extend a play for four seconds or to run 7 yards for a FD?

 

If the QB has throw the ball a way a lot, I'm firing the GM for incompetent drafting of receivers and olinemen...or the coaching staff....or both.

Ok  What would have happened to OSU in the title game if Stroud didn't use his athleticism and just threw the ball away under pressure?

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3 minutes ago, Superman said:

 

NFL median pressure rate for an offense is about 20%. I'm willing to bet that pressure rate is higher on 3rd/4th down, and in the 4th quarter in close games. 

 

Your QB will be under pressure, and that pressure is likely to be more frequent in high leverage situations. Having a QB who can handle that pressure and still give you a chance to make a play -- whether running for a gain, or using his legs to extend the play and throwing for a gain -- is a value add. It's not the most important factor, but it's certainly important.

 

It's not symptomatic of a defeatist attitude. It's an acknowledgment of statistical fact. The QB being under pressure doesn't mean your offense failed, unless your offense didn't attempt to account for the inevitable pressure that your QB will face. And one of the best/most efficient ways to account for that inevitable pressure is with some mobility and playmaking from the QB.

The context of this conversation is based upon what we are seeing with AR at his pro-day.   The questions around AR is his experience/ability to read defenses and his accuracy in throwing shot passes...predominately his prowess as a pocket passer.

 

If you want to talk about a QBs need to extend plays on about the 20% of pass plays...which is what everybody who is coming at me seems to be worried about....that 20%....I'm saying that I am more worried about what happens during that 80%.  For which AR has yet to answer and we all are relying upon his development.

 

And that concern is shared by about everybody on this forum.  And yet they want to pretend I'm some sort of outlier.

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13 minutes ago, DougDew said:

Throw the ball away...Jesus.   Line up again the next down....or the next series of downs your properly rostered D gives you in a few football minutes.   How often in the NFL does the QB need to be an athletic unicorn to extend a play for four seconds or to run 7 yards for a FD?

 

If the QB has throw the ball a way a lot, I'm firing the GM for incompetent drafting of receivers and olinemen...or the coaching staff....or both.

Throw the ball away on 4th down to win or tie the game? Yeah, that’s what every QB should be doing. How often does a QB need to run? Idk, look at every time one of them has done it to DO EXACTLY WHAT YOU’RE SAYING THEY SHOULDN’T BE DOING BECAUSE THEY HAVE ANOTHER SERIES OR DOWN? 

 

Do you even think about what you say before you type it? You want a QB to throw the ball away and wait for the next series. But, wait, you don’t want them throwing the ball away. What if they throw the ball away, then never get the ball back and lose? That’s okay, though, because he sure didn’t run the ball. 
 

AGAIN, you’re living in some fantasy land. This isn’t 1987 where it’s throw the ball or throw it away only.  The quarterback will HAVE TO RUN at some point to extend a play or win a game. Why you can’t understand this is absolutely maddening. 

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2 minutes ago, stitches said:

I am just not sure even "absolutely elite from the pocket" cuts it anymore. At least not at the very top. Because nowadays there are "absolutely elite from the pocket" QBs, who in addition have playmaking ability like Burrow or Mahomes... or Herbert? 

 

I mean, if you can't stop my QB who is slicing up your defense solely from the pocket, I don't really care that your QB can win from the pocket and out of the pocket. My guy is more than good enough. 

 

I think Mahomes being essentially immobile against the Jags and at times against the Eagles has tested this theory sufficiently. The Eagles never even touched him in the second half. A QB can absolutely win solely from the pocket, if he's good enough from the pocket. 

 

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I think Burrow is close... maybe Mahomes too.. But again... what would they be like nowadays if they weren't some of the best playmakers out of structure in the league? Would they be MVP-level, Superbowl QBs? 

 

Mahomes kind of reining in his gunslinger/madman ways has made him a better QB, and will probably extend his career. I think Burrow scrambles because the Bengals have a terrible OL, not because it's necessary for him to excel as a passer. Yeah, their mobility is a plus, if/when it's needed, but I think we have evidence that they would be fine strictly from the pocket. They're that good. Still not as good as those Mt Rushmore guys from a decade ago, though.

 

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Yeah, Tua is interesting one, because a lot of people expected him to actually have some playmaking ability, but in the league he is indeed predominantly winning from the pocket.  

 

I've been out on Tua since before the draft, mostly because of durability, but also he's not physically elite in any category. His first two years were awful, but that's what happens when your coaches don't believe in you. In 2022, he looked like a copy of Drew Brees, which was one of his pre-draft comps. Imagine if he had a dominant arm... Imagine if Jared Goff was a little bit quicker getting through his reads... I think this kind of QB can still work, but we don't see them check all those pocket passer archetype boxes very often anymore.

 

What I'm really challenging is the assertion that, because the game has changed, a QB cannot be successful as an elite pocket passer. Yeah, everyone wants the guy who can make second reaction plays, and if he can scramble and pick up first downs with his legs, that's great, too. But I think if you can develop a guy who checks all those boxes, he'd be fine even without the second reaction stuff. Guys like Goff, JG, Mac Jones, are leaving a lot of those boxes unchecked, though.

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5 minutes ago, Superman said:

What I'm really challenging is the assertion that, because the game has changed, a QB cannot be successful as an elite pocket passer. Yeah, everyone wants the guy who can make second reaction plays, and if he can scramble and pick up first downs with his legs, that's great, too. But I think if you can develop a guy who checks all those boxes, he'd be fine even without the second reaction stuff. Guys like Goff, JG, Mac Jones, are leaving a lot of those boxes unchecked, though.

I guess I will just need to wait for the next one to be convinced. Right now I don't really see anyone of the new generation of QBs having similar athletic limitations and being as successful as the previous generation of immobile pocket passers. :dunno: 

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1 minute ago, DougDew said:

The context of this conversation is based upon what we are seeing with AR at his pro-day.   The questions around AR is his experience/ability to read defenses and his accuracy in throwing shot passes...predominately his prowess as a pocket passer.

 

If you want to talk about a QBs need to extend plays on about the 20% of pass plays...which is what everybody who is coming at me seems to be worried about....that 20%....I'm saying that I am more worried about what happens during that 80%.  For which AR has yet to answer and we all are relying upon his development.

 

And that concern is shared by about everybody on this forum.  And yet they want to pretend I'm some sort of outlier.

 

Not at all. 

 

I responded because you said this:

 

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To me, that sounds a lot like saying...... we want a guy who can make a play by himself when our structured play fails. 

 

Sorry, it sound like a defeatist attitude to me.

 

 

Not because I think there's something wrong with questioning elements of Richardson's game. But because your comments present as if you think using a QB's ability to extend plays under pressure represents a failure on the part of the offense, the coaching staff, or the roster building. In other words, 'we know we can't protect our QB, so we need him to be able to run from the pass rush, and that's more important to us than any of the other aspects of playing QB.' And that's a misrepresentation.

 

The fact is that the structured play will fail -- this is inevitable -- and that's mostly likely to happen in high leverage situations. And if you have to choose between a guy who has the ability to extend the play with his legs, or a guy whose only choice is to throw the ball away, you're arguing as if you'd rather have the guy who has to throw the ball away. And I don't think that's a genuine argument. 

 

If I had to choose between the guy who can make the 80% plays but can't make the 20% plays, or the guy who can't make the 80% plays but can make the 20% plays, I want the 80% guy. Everyone does. You don't have to argue that point anymore. 

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If Ballard drafts a player with the 4th pick you can bet he will be a starter.  No matter the position.  A top 5 player in the draft starts.  That’s not AR imo. If you trade back and then take AR that’s a different conversation.   But a top 5 pick is a starter as he should be.  The team will expect that and the fans will expect that.  Ballard needs to nail this pick.  There is no doubt about that.  

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Just now, richard pallo said:

If Ballard drafts a player with the 4th pick you can bet he will be a starter.  No matter the position.  A top 5 player in the draft starts.  That’s not AR imo. If you trade back and then take AR that’s a different conversation.   But a top 5 pick is a starter as he should be.  The team will expect that and the fans will expect that.  Ballard needs to nail this pick.  There is no doubt about that.  

If he is good enough to take at 15 he is good enough to take at 4.

Just now, Superman said:

 

I didn't realize he was throwing today. That's awesome.

He didn’t throw. Just did some tosses with receivers.

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21 minutes ago, DougDew said:

Really, if you are drafting a QB for his ability to convert 4th and 7 with his legs with the game on the line...and ignoring his ability to get into his third read and throw a precise pass...my guess that you will never have a situation where the game is on the line in the first place.

 

This entire convo is in the context of ARs pro day where he isn't really answering any of the important issues...maybe we can gather something about accuracy on the short out patterns.

See my response to Indy Fan

 

If my QB is getting pressured as a matter of routine, that sounds like a roster problem...and losing football games.

 

 

 

57 minutes ago, DougDew said:

Throw the ball away so I don't have my $160M on the bench for 10 weeks? 

 

We have another down or two, or will get more downs in a few minutes.

 

Defenders can't even touch the QB if he throws the ball away, and then you likely still have another down.  That seems like the smarter play.

 

 That would be intellectually inferior Anytime there was an opening in front of you and you know how to slide (better than Luck).

 And QB's get hit all the time, and sometimes penalties are called.

  Man alive, this draft is soup for our good posters wacking out!

 

 

 Your way your teammates wouldn't want to play for you, and your HC would want to kick your ____. 

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52 minutes ago, Indyfan4life said:

And what happens if we trade down for Hooker, then someone trades up and takes him before us? You’re assuming no one else wants the guy. 

No, I’m not assuming anything.  In a nightmare scenario, your exact scenario plays out and we end up failing to obtain a qb of the future in this draft.  But that’s a low probability, high impact event.  High impact in that failing to get our future QB know a draft that we own the 4th pick would be disastrous, given that we’ve wasted so much time trying to find FA solutions in recent years…

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20 hours ago, Restinpeacesweetchloe said:

I don’t think Ballard can afford to only win 3 games this year. So he better hope Minshew can win some games and Richardson looks like the real deal by the end of the season if we go that way. Irsay will want to see progress.

I don't think it matters if we go 0-17 this season - Ballard is safe. He at least needs the chance to see this though.

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20 minutes ago, Indyfan4life said:

Throw the ball away on 4th down to win or tie the game? Yeah, that’s what every QB should be doing. How often does a QB need to run? Idk, look at every time one of them has done it to DO EXACTLY WHAT YOU’RE SAYING THEY SHOULDN’T BE DOING BECAUSE THEY HAVE ANOTHER SERIES OR DOWN? 

 

Do you even think about what you say before you type it? You want a QB to throw the ball away and wait for the next series. But, wait, you don’t want them throwing the ball away. What if they throw the ball away, then never get the ball back and lose? That’s okay, though, because he sure didn’t run the ball. 
 

AGAIN, you’re living in some fantasy land. This isn’t 1987 where it’s throw the ball or throw it away only.  The quarterback will HAVE TO RUN at some point to extend a play or win a game. Why you can’t understand this is absolutely maddening. 

Pat, you're getting all worked up and are arguing probably because you don't like the way I said something instead of understanding its content.

 

All of the positive comments about AR are about his ability to play "out of structure".  IN fact, most of the comments about QBs the past three months have been about that topic. 

 

Structure implies how we intend to play.  Out of structure is the exception....and if we are succesfull and smart.....it should be rare.

 

So instead of asking ourselves how well do these QBs play out of structure,...the exceptions....has anybody asked, in the past three months, "How well do these QBs play WITHIN STRUCTURE...normal football.  

 

What has AR showed us with his ability to play within structure...superior, average, or bad?  I don't know.

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26 minutes ago, DougDew said:

Throw the ball away...Jesus.   Line up again the next down....or the next series of downs your properly rostered D gives you in a few football minutes.   How often in the NFL does the QB need to be an athletic unicorn to extend a play for four seconds or to run 7 yards for a FD?

 

If the QB has throw the ball a way a lot, I'm firing the GM for incompetent drafting of receivers and olinemen...or the coaching staff....or both.

While I get your sentiment and mostly agree, I think there isn’t an absolute here. I think it more important that the QB knows not just to throw it away in your scenario, but when it’s important to actually not do that and try to extend a drive. 
 

you don’t and shouldn’t want your QB throwing it away every 3rd down that he doesn’t like what he sees 

 

but

 

at the same time, you also don’t want your QB scrambling to extend every third down play, especially on non-important drives. 

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13 minutes ago, csmopar said:

While I get your sentiment and mostly agree, I think there isn’t an absolute here. I think it more important that the QB knows not just to throw it away in your scenario, but when it’s important to actually not do that and try to extend a drive. 
 

you don’t and shouldn’t want your QB throwing it away every 3rd down that he doesn’t like what he sees 

 

but

 

at the same time, you also don’t want your QB scrambling to extend every third down play, especially on non-important drives. 

And there are times when "pocket passers" stand there with seemingly 10 yards in front of them and hold the ball trying to throw for the 6 yard FD, and then it goes incomplete or he takes a sack.  If he just would have used his 5.4 second 40 time to get those 6 yards...that is called extending the series too.

 

Nobody has ever objectively measured the impact of having an incrementally more athletic QB and compare it to the times where a successful out of structure play actually needed that level of athleticism.  It probably happens once or twice a game, and who knows that if you just punted it would have resulted in getting the ball back 4 minutes later.

 

Stroud-ish is fine.  Don't need AR or Lamar....unless they know how to play normal in-structure football too.

 

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12 minutes ago, cdgacoltsfan said:

Irsay should pounce right now. 231 million guaranteed....what a bargain!

As long as its more than Watson.   Did he actually say that?

 

It sounds unprofessional and immature.   Alan Iverson, LOL.

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8 minutes ago, DougDew said:

Pat, you're getting all worked up and are arguing probably because you don't like the way I said something instead of understanding its content.

 

All of the positive comments about AR are about his ability to play "out of structure".  IN fact, most of the comments about QBs the past three months have been about that topic. 

 

Structure implies how we intend to play.  Out of structure is the exception....and if we are succesfull and smart.....it should be rare.

 

So instead of asking ourselves how well do these QBs play out of structure,...the exceptions....has anybody asked, in the past three months, "How well do these QBs play WITHIN STRUCTURE...normal football.  

 

What has AR showed us with his ability to play within structure...superior, average, or bad?  I don't know.

I’m done responding to you after this message, so feel free to argue into the void all you want. 
 

You’re talking as if plays never break down. You’re talking as if everything ever designed or schemed never goes wrong. By your logic, you’d rather potentially lose a game because you don’t want your QB to take the wide open lane, slide, get the first down and be able to setup a game winning field goal. Receivers aren’t always going to be open. This is just a fact. 
 

I cannot figure out why some of you can’t differentiate running when needing to/moving to avoid being hit/running every play. 
 

Stop talking about “structure” because “structure” isn’t a guarantee in football. 

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1 minute ago, Indyfan4life said:

I’m done responding to you after this message, so feel free to argue into the void all you want. 
 

You’re talking as if plays never break down. You’re talking as if everything ever designed or schemed never goes wrong. By your logic, you’d rather potentially lose a game because you don’t want your QB to take the wide open lane, slide, get the first down and be able to setup a game winning field goal. Receivers aren’t always going to be open. This is just a fact. 
 

I cannot figure out why some of you can’t differentiate running when needing to/moving to avoid being hit/running every play. 
 

Stop talking about “structure” because “structure” isn’t a guarantee in football. 

This has always  been my biggest complaint with colts and their immobile QB. Football plays are not always executed perfect. Your team has a lower ceiling if everything had to go perfect. I want a QB that can create when it breaks down.

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17 minutes ago, Indyfan4life said:

I’m done responding to you after this message, so feel free to argue into the void all you want. 
 

You’re talking as if plays never break down. You’re talking as if everything ever designed or schemed never goes wrong. By your logic, you’d rather potentially lose a game because you don’t want your QB to take the wide open lane, slide, get the first down and be able to setup a game winning field goal. Receivers aren’t always going to be open. This is just a fact. 
 

I cannot figure out why some of you can’t differentiate running when needing to/moving to avoid being hit/running every play. 
 

Stop talking about “structure” because “structure” isn’t a guarantee in football. 

Structure is what football is all about.  Its what's coached.  Its not player driven anarchy centered around a ball,  That's the NBA, LOL.

 

I want him to make good plays when the structure breaks down. 

 

 But I want him to make plays as they were called in the huddle

 

and not toss it over the guys head, or misread the coverage, or panic and start running for no reason....because he runs well,   And I care about those times more than I care about how many positive yards we get when one play breaks down, because if he throws the ball away, he'll still get more plays.

 

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1 hour ago, Superman said:

 

NFL median pressure rate for an offense is about 20%. I'm willing to bet that pressure rate is higher on 3rd/4th down, and in the 4th quarter in close games. 

 

Your QB will be under pressure, and that pressure is likely to be more frequent in high leverage situations. Having a QB who can handle that pressure and still give you a chance to make a play -- whether running for a gain, or using his legs to extend the play and throwing for a gain -- is a value add. It's not the most important factor, but it's certainly important.

 

It's not symptomatic of a defeatist attitude. It's an acknowledgment of statistical fact. The QB being under pressure doesn't mean your offense failed, unless your offense didn't attempt to account for the inevitable pressure that your QB will face. And one of the best/most efficient ways to account for that inevitable pressure is with some mobility and playmaking from the QB.

 

Dougy is arguing against, what is making the argument for, Mahommes being considered as one of the all-time Greats. 

 Mahommes IS pass first, exemplary using his progressions, great at moving in the pocket, and great at moving out of the pocket to extend plays, and great running for first downs.

 Anyone should hope and beg for all of these abilities. It is not either or.

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2 minutes ago, throwing BBZ said:

Anyone should hope and beg for all of these abilities. It is not either or.

Yep..  The word "all" includes this..... what is the ability of the top 4 QBs to play within structure at the NFL level...not just the out of structure stuff? (which didn't even work for Mahomes when he lost his starting OTs)

 

Crickets?

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1 hour ago, Patrick Miller said:

I wonder why he would be standoffish when questioned about the Colts?

 

To the public I hope he snarls when the Colts are mentioned.

The guy ain't no fool, he watched Hurts and knows he wants some Steichen.

 It will be a good visit when he comes to Indy.

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Interesting article about Richardson playing "In structure"

 

It should surprise nobody that when Richardson let the ball fly deep at his pro day, the stuff was just thermonuclear. Richardson doesn’t just have a plus deep arm; he has one of the most remarkable deep arms I’ve ever seen in a draft prospect.

 

Where you want more on the field, and where things show up in bad places at times, is when he has to throw anything but a fastball. Last season, per Pro Football Focus, he completed just 58.0% of his passes from 0-9 air yards for 417 yards, four touchdowns, five interceptions, and a passer rating of 61.6 — his lowest passer rating on any type of throw. His passer rating of 114.6 on throws of 20 or more air yards? That’s the obvious freakish upside showing itself off. But as was the case in-season, Richardson is a thrower with one dominant pitch, and he will need time to develop the off-speed stuff — to throw with timing, touch, and different kinds of functional velocity to different parts of the field. He missed a couple of easy underneath throws at his pro day that spoke to these issues.

 

 

“I’ve just been working,” Richardson told NFL Network’s Tom Pelissero and Steve Smith Sr. after he was done throwing. “I was very inconsistent at times throughout the season, so I’m just trying to put that behind me and trying to stay consistent. Inconsistency is not going to work at the next level, so I’ve just been grinding at that. Just trying to perfect my craft, and perfect who I am as a person.

 

“I put a lot of pressure on myself. I want to be great — I want to be the best in the world. I know I’ll never be perfect, but I try to work toward perfection. If I’m not working toward that, I’ll get in my head a little bit, or I used to, and realize that I can’t control everything. I just have to focus on my job, and everything I can do.”

 

https://www.yahoo.com/sports/anthony-richardson-shows-hits-impossible-164714937.html

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6 minutes ago, PRnum1 said:

Interesting article about Richardson playing "In structure"

 

It should surprise nobody that when Richardson let the ball fly deep at his pro day, the stuff was just thermonuclear. Richardson doesn’t just have a plus deep arm; he has one of the most remarkable deep arms I’ve ever seen in a draft prospect.

 

Where you want more on the field, and where things show up in bad places at times, is when he has to throw anything but a fastball. Last season, per Pro Football Focus, he completed just 58.0% of his passes from 0-9 air yards for 417 yards, four touchdowns, five interceptions, and a passer rating of 61.6 — his lowest passer rating on any type of throw. His passer rating of 114.6 on throws of 20 or more air yards? That’s the obvious freakish upside showing itself off. But as was the case in-season, Richardson is a thrower with one dominant pitch, and he will need time to develop the off-speed stuff — to throw with timing, touch, and different kinds of functional velocity to different parts of the field. He missed a couple of easy underneath throws at his pro day that spoke to these issues.

 

 

“I’ve just been working,” Richardson told NFL Network’s Tom Pelissero and Steve Smith Sr. after he was done throwing. “I was very inconsistent at times throughout the season, so I’m just trying to put that behind me and trying to stay consistent. Inconsistency is not going to work at the next level, so I’ve just been grinding at that. Just trying to perfect my craft, and perfect who I am as a person.

 

“I put a lot of pressure on myself. I want to be great — I want to be the best in the world. I know I’ll never be perfect, but I try to work toward perfection. If I’m not working toward that, I’ll get in my head a little bit, or I used to, and realize that I can’t control everything. I just have to focus on my job, and everything I can do.”

 

https://www.yahoo.com/sports/anthony-richardson-shows-hits-impossible-164714937.html

That description sounds like a baseball pitcher you just drafted that has all of the potential in the world....

 

......that you have start-off in the the Minor Leagues until he learns what he needs to learn. 

 

There is no minor leagues in the NFL, so it'll be interesting to see if a team invests a lot of money and roster spot to have him sit on the bench watching the vets play.

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4 minutes ago, Solid84 said:

So at least $46m/year guaranteed...

 

Yeah, he's playing on the tag this season...

 

He wants a long contract. That is what it is.

 

Something like 8 years $360 million contract (Mahomes average) with $240 million guaranteed over 8 years (higher than Watson's $230 million guaranteed).

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5 minutes ago, Restinpeacesweetchloe said:

Interesting here. Wonder who the two teams Colin is talking about who didn’t like this about Levis. Had to be teams in top five or six.

 
Push back on Colin to get that ripped he had to be working out.

 

I thought the pictures were cringe... not sure how much it means about his NFL prospects, though... :dunno:

 

Colin said he talked to two GMs. We know for sure he knows Ballard... we know he knows and talks to the Chargers GM... is it possible Ballard is one of them? I kind of doubt Ballard is going around talking to his budies in media about players directly involved in the range of the draft we are picking in. 

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Just now, richard pallo said:

I don’t think it’s Ballard.  His physique is a shorter Levis.  

Everything we know about him says he is obsessed with football. I get Colin’s point about what you put on social media. But interviews and research into him will show how much he loves football. We are just in a different world with SM.

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