Was the Nelson Contract a Good Idea?

[Nickster]

Do you think the mega contract Nelson signed was a good idea by the Colts management?

[Nickster]

I think it was a very poor decision by management to sign Nelson to the 4th highest yearly salary all time for all linemen.

I thought the club should have waited to see how he did this season.

 

I don't think anyone would think it would have been a good idea to give him that number after this season which will end as his 2nd in a row with a sub 70 PFF. 

[Nesjan3]

No he got LT money to play G, which is ridiculous. It was dumb when he was the best G in the NFL, now after multiple injuries, back problems and huge drop in play it looks really really bad. Not sure how we deal with it. Have to hope whoever the GM is next year can rework his contract somehow.

[csmopar]

I went yes at the time. But he’s been off now all season and really since getting hurt. In hindsight, I’d waited

[LJpalmbeacher2]

Once he was drafted  5th overall, a huge contract was inevitable..... even if he is a guard, even if he's not 100% healthy. To not resign him, at any.price would have been a admittance of failing on a Top.5 pick by ballard. Which is why GM's with just a wee bit foresight don't draft guards that high. Lol

[Nickster]

7 minutes ago, csmopar said:

I went yes at the time. But he’s been off now all season and really since getting hurt. In hindsight, I’d waited

I just didn't understand why they didn't wait to see how he held up this season.  

My guess is that Nelson's back issues are affecting his play and I don't understand why the management team was so quick to sign the guy.  They're just didn't seem to be any advantage to signing him that early because the number they gave him was going to make it almost certain that he could have signed for that after this season if his performance warranted it. 

 

I think the Colts pay for past performance a lot of times.  As a Cubs fan, that is something that Theo Epstein lived by.  Don't pay for past performance.  Pay for what is likely to happen in the future. 

[Nickster]

2 minutes ago, LJpalmbeacher2 said:

Once he was drafted  5th overall, a huge contract was inevitable..... even if he is a guard, even if he's not 100% healthy. To not resign him, at any.price would have been a admittance of failing on a Top.5 pick by ballard. Which is why GM's with just a wee bit foresight don't draft guards that high. Lol

Well I'm talking mainly in terms of the back injury and other injuries he'd been suffering. I think the price would have been a little high, but I'd be perfectly fine with that contract with his performance in his 1st 3 seasons.

But after last year, I really thought they'd wait and see.  

[Nickster]

@Superman 

Why would you sign a guy with two consecutive years with average play to that contract?  

 

That seems illogical and counter to the current evidence.  

[Superman]

Just now, Nickster said:

@Superman 

Why would you sign a guy with two consecutive years with average play to that contract?  

 

That seems illogical and counter to the current evidence.  

 

I disagree with the statement that he has two consecutive years of average play. 

 

Counter question: What's the alternative being presented?

[Nickster]

3 minutes ago, Superman said:

 

I disagree with the statement that he has two consecutive years of average play. 

 

Counter question: What's the alternative being presented?

Not signing him to the 4th highest contract for any linemen for a LG with average grades the last two seasons would be my alternative.  Give him a reasonable offer, and if he rejected it, let him see what other teams thought of his value.  If it was 80 for 4 seasons, cut bait. 

 

And how would you quantify his play the last two seasons?  His rankings are not great, and there is starting to be some questions outside the org as to his play. 

[IinD]

Every guy is the highest paid for a year or two at their position so I don't think it really matters in today's game. Back in the day yes, but not anymore.

 

I remember when Hutchinson's contact was an OMG for a G then the next time the highest paid G was the one that Jax signed and he became the highest paid G and now it's us. 

 

Who cares at this point honestly. Everyone becomes the highest paid at their position literally every off season.

[Nickster]

Just now, IinD said:

Every guy is the highest paid for a year or two at their position so I don't think it really matters in today's game. Back in the day yes, but not anymore.

 

I remember when Hutchinson's contact was an OMG for a G then the next time the highest paid G was the one that Jax signed and he became the highest paid G and now it's us. 

 

Who cares at this point honestly. Everyone becomes the highest paid at their position literally every off season.

Huh?  Not every guard is the highest paid guard at some point.

 

Nelson's performance the last two seasons seems pretty clearly undeserving of his contract number unless you are rewarding him for his 1st 3 seasons which seems like bad business.  

 

I guess I have to believe people if they say that he should be paid that money after this season, I just find it hard to believe. 

 

And I'm not at all worried about Jim's money.  

 

The problem with contracts is the limited pool.  His money is money that can't be spent elsewhere, unlike in baseball where bad contracts are just the owner's money as there is no cap. 

[BlackTiger]

I think they should have tried him at LT even if its not his preferred position. 

 

Its what the team needs.  If that didnt work out at LT then offer him something closer to what Lgs usually get.

[Nickster]

Just now, BlackTiger said:

I think they should have tried him at LT even if its not his preferred position. 

 

Its what the team needs.  If that didnt work out at LT then offer him something closer to what Lgs usually get.

 

Yeah, I just think his play isn't that good and there were some pretty strong indicators that it might be headed in this direction.  And I really haven't seen any games when I was like, "there's the old Q."  Admittedly, I haven't watched as closely and haven't any rewatching but still. 

[Superman]

13 minutes ago, Nickster said:

Give him a reasonable offer, and if he rejected it, let him see what other teams thought of his value.  If it was 80 for 4 seasons, cut bait. 

 

I think that's awful team building strategy. I think he got his market value, and I don't think you let great players leave in free agency with no compensation if you want to build a winning team.

 

The only alternative I would have considered would have been a trade that brought back great value. And I'd consider that option for any player.

[Nickster]

3 minutes ago, Superman said:

 

I think that's awful team building strategy. I think he got his market value, and I don't think you let great players leave in free agency with no compensation if you want to build a winning team.

 

The only alternative I would have considered would have been a trade that brought back great value. And I'd consider that option for any player.

 

What do you mean by team building strategy?  Like he'd be mad or something? I mean he's not been great these last two seasons by any measure so why pay him great player money?  For what he did in 18-20?

 

Now you said you'd sign him to that contract now which I really don't understand since he's clearly not played like a top G the last two years, let alone a top paid lineman.    You think his market value would be 80/4 right now?

[CR91]

Well the alternative is getting a 3rd round comp pick and two holes at G. Is that worth it?

[Superman]

2 minutes ago, Nickster said:

 

What do you mean by team building strategy?  Like he'd be mad or something? I mean he's not been great these last two seasons by any measure so why pay him great player money?  For what he did in 18-20?

 

Now you said you'd sign him to that contract now which I really don't understand since he's clearly not played like a top G the last two years, let alone a top paid lineman.    You think his market value would be 80/4 right now?

 

Maybe our main disagreement is with his level of play. We're not going to agree on that. 

 

As for team building, I don't think you let players of his caliber just leave in free agency. I think that's pretty simple. He's an asset, no matter what you think of him. Don't just let an asset walk without getting anything back. I happen to think he's a valuable asset, one that can help the team win, or can bring back something more than a future comp pick.

[Nickster]

Just now, Superman said:

 

Maybe our main disagreement is with his level of play. We're not going to agree on that. 

 

As for team building, I don't think you let players of his caliber just leave in free agency. I think that's pretty simple. He's an asset, no matter what you think of him. Don't just let an asset walk without getting anything back. I happen to think he's a valuable asset, one that can help the team win, or can bring back something more than a future comp pick.

Oh I really am a fan of Q Supe. His first 3 seasons were great and even then, I'd think this would be somewhat of an overpay, but if he played like that this year, I'd be fine.

 

Do you not see a difference in his play from then until now man?  It seems pretty obvious to me and the grading services and some of the media are starting to be aware of it. 

[Nickster]

3 minutes ago, CR91 said:

Well the alternative is getting a 3rd round comp pick and two holes at G. Is that worth it?

 

But if is the new normal for Q, and we have seen almost 2 full seasons at this level, then yeah to me it's worth it.

 

You could overpay 2 FAs at 10 mill each and most likely come up with a solid NFL guard combo.   

 

With his injuries last year I was for waiting to see this year.  I don't think anyone would offer him what he's making after this year.  I could be wrong, but it seems unlikely. 

[Superman]

2 minutes ago, Nickster said:

Oh I really am a fan of Q Supe. His first 3 seasons were great and even then, I'd think this would be somewhat of an overpay, but if he played like that this year, I'd be fine.

 

Do you not see a difference in his play from then until now man?  It seems pretty obvious to me and the grading services and some of the media are starting to be aware of it. 

 

Yes, I think he's been injured, and maybe affected by Covid. But more importantly, he's been playing in a questionable scheme, between two underperforming line partners. I'm not arguing that he hasn't slipped some. My point is I still think he's a great player.

 

And if you want to reallocate resources, I think the best way to maximize what you have is to trade him. Not let him walk in free agency. And I would have been fine with a trade if it brought back excellent value. As it stands now, he's our guy, and I think that's a good thing.

 

What's the yearly average you would have been okay with?

[CR91]

2 minutes ago, Nickster said:

 

But if is the new normal for Q, and we have seen almost 2 full seasons at this level, then yeah to me it's worth it.

 

You could overpay 2 FAs at 10 mill each and most likely come up with a solid NFL guard combo.   

 

With his injuries last year I was for waiting to see this year.  I don't think anyone would offer him what he's making after this year.  I could be wrong, but it seems unlikely. 

 

Can't place it all on Q. We didn't appreciate how great AC was and that's been a big factor. Instead of just worrying about his own guy, Q has to always be on the lookout to help the left side. 

[Nickster]

Just now, Superman said:

 

Yes, I think he's been injured, and maybe affected by Covid. But more importantly, he's been playing in a questionable scheme, between two underperforming line partners. I'm not arguing that he hasn't slipped some. My point is I still think he's a great player.

 

And if you want to reallocate resources, I think the best way to maximize what you have is to trade him. Not let him walk in free agency. And I would have been fine with a trade if it brought back excellent value. As it stands now, he's our guy, and I think that's a good thing.

 

What's the yearly average you would have been okay with?

 

Well to answer your question, I thought they should wait.

 

I don't think he's worth anymore than 15 per right now.  Good but not great and a long long way from elite. 

 

I'd be interested in how he's valued by other teams.  The Colts held all the cards with the dude.  I too am for trading just about anyone except elite QBs if the return is good.  I think they jumped the gun, and if Q's injuries are of the kinda permanent diminishment type which back injuries often are, the contract will be counter productive at the least. 

[Nickster]

6 minutes ago, CR91 said:

 

Can't place it all on Q. We didn't appreciate how great AC was and that's been a big factor. Instead of just worrying about his own guy, Q has to always be on the lookout to help the left side. 

 

Yeah not really though in pass rush like at all.  Most pass rush responsibilty of Gs that involve other Olinemen is to the inside with the C on 1T, except on stunts.  I really couldn't tell you how we've handled stunts, but it's still one on one most o the time. 

 

I don't know how anyone watching Q could see the same dominant guy we had his first few seasons honestly.  It's pretty  a pretty obvious diminishment to me. 

[CR91]

2 minutes ago, Nickster said:

 

Yeah not really though in pass rush like at all.  Most pass rush responsibilty of Gs in to the inside with the C on 1T, except on stunts.  I really couldn't tell you how we've handled stunts, but it's still one on one most o the time. 

 

Go back in 2019 where he sent Melvin Ingram to  the next planet. Its not all one on one.

[csmopar]

46 minutes ago, Nickster said:

I just didn't understand why they didn't wait to see how he held up this season.  

My guess is that Nelson's back issues are affecting his play and I don't understand why the management team was so quick to sign the guy.  They're just didn't seem to be any advantage to signing him that early because the number they gave him was going to make it almost certain that he could have signed for that after this season if his performance warranted it. 

 

I think the Colts pay for past performance a lot of times.  As a Cubs fan, that is something that Theo Epstein lived by.  Don't pay for past performance.  Pay for what is likely to happen in the future. 

I think they didn’t know, which again speaks to the failure of our medical staff… again

[Nickster]

Just now, csmopar said:

I think they didn’t know, which again speaks to the failure of our medical staff… again

Well backs are tricky man.  I just don't see a reason to sign him right before the season.  There was no compelling reason to hurry.  He wasn't likely to get more than he got even if he had a 90PFF type year. 

[Nickster]

2 minutes ago, CR91 said:

 

Go back in 2019 where he sent Melvin Ingram to  the next planet. Its not all one on one.

His pass rush grade is not diminished by other players man.  It's just not.  At least not much.   Run blocking could be a different story, but no so much in pass pro. 

[Dobbinblitz]

Nelson is currently graded number 21 of all guards this year to date by PFF metrics. He has allowed 24 pressures and 3 sacks. He grades out at 68.6 overall.  In terms of salary cap allocation. how valuable is this position on any team.

 

Does the impact of the guard position translate into wins. Did Nelson need to be retained - absolutely!  Did he need to paid at his current contract level; given the nature of the current team cap structure and the position that he plays - No.

[CR91]

6 minutes ago, Nickster said:

His pass rush grade is not diminished by other players man.  It's just not.  At least not much.   Run blocking could be a different story, but no so much in pass pro. 

 

And you think the revolving door at LT hasn't played a big role? There's no longer that safe haven of just worrying about the guy front of you. Now it's does my left need help? Does Kelly who really has declined need help? It all plays into it 

[chad72]

If we are back to a rookie QB, does $15 mil. per or $20 mil. per year really matter? It is not like Ballard was spending lots of money in FA anyways. Everything gets magnified by the failure at the QB position. If the QB was compensating for the OL failures by adjusting protections at a high level, we would have still had issues but I am certain they could have been minimized. It was like a set of dominoes, this season, from play calling failure to OL coaching / OL failure to QB failure and so on...

 

No single guy on the OL is going to be singularly winning the ball game or losing it, so you hope you know that things will level out and Q will be back to his better ways.

[Superman]

39 minutes ago, Nickster said:

 

Well to answer your question, I thought they should wait.

 

I don't think he's worth anymore than 15 per right now.  Good but not great and a long long way from elite. 

 

I'd be interested in how he's valued by other teams.  The Colts held all the cards with the dude.  I too am for trading just about anyone except elite QBs if the return is good.  I think they jumped the gun, and if Q's injuries are of the kinda permanent diminishment type which back injuries often are, the contract will be counter productive at the least. 

 

Here's how I look at it. By the end of Nelson's contract, the salary cap will probably be $250m, maybe more. Average around $230m seems reasonable. So his average at $20m/year (new money, not the effective average, which is less) is basically 8.7% of the total salary cap. At $15m/year, it would be 6.5%. So you would let a great player walk in free agency, over 2.2% of the cap, and only get a 2024 late third round comp pick back.

 

Or, I guess an alternative would have been to wait until after 2022, and see how the negotiations go at that point. The problem is that the numbers only seem to go up, they don't usually come down. Look at the crazy explosion in WR contracts over the last couple years. That's probably coming for all positions as the cap keeps going up.

 

I'd rather overpay a really good player than create a hole on my roster, with no real compensation in return.

 

And the irony to me is how many people dog Ballard for being cheap, and Irsay for having small market money (most of them not know what they're talking about), because they want to sign some overrated free agent who will almost certainly wind up being overpaid and not contributing to team success... and then they turn around and complain because they think we overpaid Nelson, a guy who has been an All Pro every year of his career, who is a great and responsible team mate, and who basically embodies the concept of a tough, hard-nosed football player. And the overpay, if there even is one, is maybe 2.2% of the salary cap.

 

It's a wasted exercise, IMO. Draft well, pay your own, supplement in free agency. And if you see the need to reallocate resources, then you swap assets for other assets, and get back on track. 

[stitches]

1 hour ago, Superman said:

 

I disagree with the statement that he has two consecutive years of average play. 

 

Counter question: What's the alternative being presented?

I was good with his contract when it was signed. And that's the only time that really matters. Had we not signed that contract at the time, I probably wouldn't offer it to him now. The alternative being... wait... negotiate lower contract... if not possible - franchise tag... see how he does next year. If he returns to all pro level - give him all pro level contract. If not... reevaluate the following spring. 

 

Oh... and yeah... all throughout this whole thing - listen to offers in case you get one you cannot refuse. 

[Defjamz26]

Is not really a fair question. Hindsight is 20/20. Colts hands were basically tied. What was the alternative? Not pay him when the line was already underperforming? Would have just made things worse.

 

I will say two things though. I’m not sure it would have been as scrutinized if it weren’t for the Leonard, Ryan, MAC, Ryan Kelly, and Hines contract. It was just the last big contract in a series of bad contracts. Second, I don’t think he gets that contract if there was a young QB on a rookie contract who is due for an extension on the roster. When you don’t have talent at the skill positions, you end up having to overpay the few good players  you do have to prevent the team from spiraling even worse. 
 

Nelson hasn’t been great this year, but make no mistakes that the Colts as a team would be even worse without Nelson.

[KB]

I think people.worrying about his contract is kind of pointless, but lets looks at the numbers. Information acquired from sporttrac.com.

 

He is making a $4 mil base salary this year with a $6.2 million signing bonus. So a $10.2 mil cap hit this year (signing bonus remains a constant each year). Dead cap would be $41 million. Next year is a $6 million base, and a $12.2 million cap hit. $30.8 in dead cap. So his first two year he never even hits the $15 million per year mark stated in posts. Now the third year is where he gets his pay day. $19 million base, and a $25.2 million cap hit. $18.6 in dead cap. If he dosnt return to form by then I would ask to restructure the deal. His fourth year is $14,563,059 (which really seems like an arbitrary amount. How did that get negotiated?), the $6.2 million signing bonus, and a $2 million roster bonus. For a $22,763,059 cap hit. His fifth and final year is $16 million base, $6.2 million signing, and $2 million roster. Cap hit of $24.2 million and $6.2 million in dead cap.

[Aaron86]

1 hour ago, Nickster said:

 

Well to answer your question, I thought they should wait.

 

I don't think he's worth anymore than 15 per right now.  Good but not great and a long long way from elite. 

 

I'd be interested in how he's valued by other teams.  The Colts held all the cards with the dude.  I too am for trading just about anyone except elite QBs if the return is good.  I think they jumped the gun, and if Q's injuries are of the kinda permanent diminishment type which back injuries often are, the contract will be counter productive at the least. 

Isn't 15 per saying he is elite? I am not really the numbers guy but how many guards actually get even get close to 15 per year.

I would assume its the upper echelon of guards. 

[Nickster]

1 hour ago, chad72 said:

If we are back to a rookie QB, does $15 mil. per or $20 mil. per year really matter? It is not like Ballard was spending lots of money in FA anyways. Everything gets magnified by the failure at the QB position. If the QB was compensating for the OL failures by adjusting protections at a high level, we would have still had issues but I am certain they could have been minimized. It was like a set of dominoes, this season, from play calling failure to OL coaching / OL failure to QB failure and so on...

 

No single guy on the OL is going to be singularly winning the ball game or losing it, so you hope you know that things will level out and Q will be back to his better ways.

Well I think 5 mill matters man.  That’s an average type guard salary or 5 more mill to an possible impact EDGe or pass catcher.

 

if Q stays sub 70 pff type of play he shouldn’t be making even 8 or 10.

 

man if he returns to elite level then it’s fine, but he isn’t trending in that direction. I’m pretty sure if they’d have waited, His allocation of scarce cap money would be less.

[Nickster]

59 minutes ago, Aaron86 said:

Isn't 15 per saying he is elite? I am not really the numbers guy but how many guards actually get even get close to 15 per year.

I would assume its the upper echelon of guards. 

Yes 15 is right there for elite guards.  

[twfish]

Has there ever been so much crying about money that isn’t yours, with a salary cap that’s laughably easy to work around, a HOF player that’s viewed as one of the best ever, and whose bad games are easily career high games for most left guards?

[crazycolt1]

13 minutes ago, twfish said:

Has there ever been so much crying about money that isn’t yours, with a salary cap that’s laughably easy to work around, a HOF player that’s viewed as one of the best ever, and whose bad games are easily career high games for most left guards?

I was thinking the same thing. When the team doesn't do good all of a sudden everything is chastised. If we were winning stuff like this wouldn't even enter the picture.