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How D should play to beat TB


ruf
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4-2-5D

Buckner and Payne at DE

Steward and Stallworth at DT as base line up---on 3rd and long bring Dayo at E move Buckner inside 

2 LB's Leonard and Okereke (and at times bring one of them in to add pressure) (cannot give TB time and a clean pocket)

5 db's playing some press and zone mix

 

thoughts

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40 minutes ago, ruf said:

4-2-5D

Buckner and Payne at DE

Steward and Stallworth at DT as base line up---on 3rd and long bring Dayo at E move Buckner inside 

2 LB's Leonard and Okereke (and at times bring one of them in to add pressure) (cannot give TB time and a clean pocket)

5 db's playing some press and zone mix

 

thoughts

Whom are the 5 DB's?  My guess is Rock, Rhodes, Moore, Willis(hopefully), and Odum...mostly based off last week?

 

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8 minutes ago, ruf said:

4-2-5D

Buckner and Payne at DE

Steward and Stallworth at DT as base line up---on 3rd and long bring Dayo at E move Buckner inside 

2 LB's Leonard and Okereke (and at times bring one of them in to add pressure) (cannot give TB time and a clean pocket)

5 db's playing some press and zone mix

 

thoughts

Our base D is really 4-2-5 anyway. We only play 4-3-4 about 20ish % of the time if that. 

 

I would like to see both Defo and Paye moved around, so more than happy to see Defo out wide on some snaps. 

 

Have to be careful though in terms of snap counts with the big uglies. Defo is already maxed out. You don't want Grover on 60ish%. Stallworth has been great depth rotating in. Happy to see all three at times, but you can't do it too much. If you do, then they're playing too many snaps, or you're having to rotate lesser effective guys like Woods, etc.. 

 

I think Rochell can be added to the mix inside at 3T to allow Defo to bounce at at times. Dayo was probably most effective inside in college, but he lined up all over the place at Vandy like Paye did at Meatchicken. 

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12 minutes ago, EastStreet said:

Our base D is really 4-2-5 anyway. We only play 4-3-4 about 20ish % of the time if that. 

 

I would like to see both Defo and Paye moved around, so more than happy to see Defo out wide on some snaps. 

 

Have to be careful though in terms of snap counts with the big uglies. Defo is already maxed out. You don't want Grover on 60ish%. Stallworth has been great depth rotating in. Happy to see all three at times, but you can't do it too much. If you do, then they're playing too many snaps, or you're having to rotate lesser effective guys like Woods, etc.. 

 

I think Rochell can be added to the mix inside at 3T to allow Defo to bounce at at times. Dayo was probably most effective inside in college, but he lined up all over the place at Vandy like Paye did at Meatchicken. 

since the bucs dont have a great run game i would love to see stallworth and turray play a lot .   have buckner stallworth paye and turray most of the time .

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27 minutes ago, coming on strong said:

since the bucs dont have a great run game i would love to see stallworth and turray play a lot .   have buckner stallworth paye and turray most of the time .

I think their run game is plenty good. They just don't use it a lot given they're elite pass wise. Their RBs are good, and the OL is elite, so if they need to run, they can. The passing game is just so good and efficient it takes precedence. 

 

I'd love to see these four looks (normal look or stunt)

 

Early Downs (left-right)

A - AQM-Defo-Grover-Paye (normal)

B - Defo-Dayo-Grover-Paye (package)

 

Passing Downs

A- Turay-Paye-Stallworth-Defo

B- Paye-Dayo/Rochell-Defo-Turay

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38 minutes ago, coming on strong said:

since the bucs dont have a great run game i would love to see stallworth and turray play a lot .   have buckner stallworth paye and turray most of the time .

do need a good bit of Steward though. is Turray getting good pressure 

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38 minutes ago, CR91 said:

Pressure pressure pressure. Simple as that. If Brady is just chilling in the pocket with a Pina colada, we stand no chance.

 

I really hope we can get pressure. Just not sure that will be the case.

Likely our bet chances though to keep him off the field is with our O being balanced and winning the ToP battle. And we have to be very efficient in the RZ and 3D.

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2 minutes ago, EastStreet said:

I think their run game is plenty good. They just don't use it a lot given they're elite pass wise. Their RBs are good, and the OL is elite, so if they need to run, they can. The passing game is just so good and efficient it takes precedence. 

 

I'd love to see these four looks (normal look or stunt)

 

Early Downs (left-right)

A - AQM-Defo-Grover-Paye (normal)

B - Defo-Dayo-Grover-Paye (package)

 

Passing Downs

A- Turay-Paye-Stallworth-Defo

B- Paye-Dayo/Rochell-Defo-Turay

i think on early downs no matter the front 4 we should sometimes send a lb to hurry TB

we would need press coverage at times to especially on blitzs 

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2 minutes ago, EastStreet said:

 

I really hope we can get pressure. Just not sure that will be the case.

Likely our bet chances though to keep him off the field is with our O being balanced and winning the ToP battle. And we have to be very efficient in the RZ and 3D.

i agree with what your saying, but the problem is with our D sometimes TB will be doing with the short pass what you would like of O to do

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58 minutes ago, EastStreet said:

Our base D is really 4-2-5 anyway. We only play 4-3-4 about 20ish % of the time if that. 

 

I would like to see both Defo and Paye moved around, so more than happy to see Defo out wide on some snaps. 

 

Have to be careful though in terms of snap counts with the big uglies. Defo is already maxed out. You don't want Grover on 60ish%. Stallworth has been great depth rotating in. Happy to see all three at times, but you can't do it too much. If you do, then they're playing too many snaps, or you're having to rotate lesser effective guys like Woods, etc.. 

 

I think Rochell can be added to the mix inside at 3T to allow Defo to bounce at at times. Dayo was probably most effective inside in college, but he lined up all over the place at Vandy like Paye did at Meatchicken. 

yes we would have to rotate by sprinkling in Rochell and others, but i'm wanting to be aggressive with them on early downs. TB should first not have a pockey to step up into (so thats why i wanted Steward and Stallworth there

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1 hour ago, WentzinRome said:

Whom are the 5 DB's?  My guess is Rock, Rhodes, Moore, Willis(hopefully), and Odum...mostly based off last week?

 

im thinking Rogers should be one of them

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1 minute ago, ruf said:

i think on early downs no matter the front 4 we should sometimes send a lb to hurry TB

we would need press coverage at times to especially on blitzs 

 

Our LBs this year aren't very effective in the blitz. Oke has been poor the past couple years in his pressure per blitz %. Leonard and Walker were pretty decent, but Leonard has taken a step back this year due to his ankle.

 

Oke is 2 pressures on 18 blitzes this year (11%). That's better than his 1 pressure on 26 (3.8%) blitzes last year, but still not good. Leonard last year had 8 pressures on 45 blitzes (18%) for comparison.

 

FWIW, we've been most effective with the safety blitz. Much more efficient than LB blitz. Odum has gotten 2 pressures on 3 blitzes (66%). Willis was pretty darn good when asked to blitz too. Kenny is 1 of 5 (20%). I thought Sendejo would be good blitzing, but he's got zero pressures thus far. 

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17 minutes ago, EastStreet said:

I think their run game is plenty good. They just don't use it a lot given they're elite pass wise. Their RBs are good, and the OL is elite, so if they need to run, they can. The passing game is just so good and efficient it takes precedence. 

 

I'd love to see these four looks (normal look or stunt)

 

Early Downs (left-right)

A - AQM-Defo-Grover-Paye (normal)

B - Defo-Dayo-Grover-Paye (package)

 

Passing Downs

A- Turay-Paye-Stallworth-Defo

B- Paye-Dayo/Rochell-Defo-Turay

i watched a bunch of their games this year it looks like they use screens  as their running game  to take pressure off of brady .  they remind me of the broncos 2013 team where they had a elite pass blocking line but were not a smash mouth run  blocking line .  that team also used screens  to off set blitzing and only ran enough to keep defenses in check .

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1 hour ago, ruf said:

4-2-5D

Buckner and Payne at DE

Steward and Stallworth at DT as base line up---on 3rd and long bring Dayo at E move Buckner inside 

2 LB's Leonard and Okereke (and at times bring one of them in to add pressure) (cannot give TB time and a clean pocket)

5 db's playing some press and zone mix

 

thoughts

You mean nickel?

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23 minutes ago, ruf said:

i agree with what your saying, but the problem is with our D sometimes TB will be doing with the short pass what you would like of O to do

 

I do think Brady will kill our zone, but he also #2 in deep ball attempts. And he's the least pressured QB in the league, and is #8 in pressured completion rate.... 

 

So in short, it's not probably we're going to get to him a lot. But when we do, he's still very good lol.... And while he can pick our zone apart short, he'll also let it rip. That's why they call him the goat.

 

That's why I say our O is likely our best chance.

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The issue will be if Brady goes no huddle taking us out of our package alignments. Brady, 100%, will attack our seams and try to draw the safeties up before taking his shots against 1-on-1s at the end of quarters or halves like he has done under Leftwich. When we do blitz, we still have to maintain safety help on Mike Evans' side since that is the side he goes to when blitzes happen or they run screen passes to Godwin or their slot wide out, pretty much most of the time. 

 

The Bucs game plan, to attack the weakness of our D will be heavy usage of the pass catching RB and the TEs. We have to be able to show man coverage and change to zone after the snap for some confusion creation, like Dennis Allen did with the Saints. Granted, we don't have a Lattimore but I think we can play Godwin 1-on-1 and lean safeties towards Mike Evans while throwing a curve ball as the game goes on in the 4th qtr. shifting double teams post snap towards Godwin. 

 

Since I know our pass rush, like @EastStreet said, our best bet is our O to keep Brady on the sidelines more often, and excessive blitzing would be suicide, disguising coverage is our best option.

 

Here is a breakdown of QBs vs the blitz, sorted by blitz dropbacks (tells me Todd Bowles will bring it and that Brady's completion percentage goes down more than 3% while blitzed, unlike his Patriot days):

 

https://www.ftnfantasy.com/nfl/tools/qb-against-the-blitz-stats

 

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24 minutes ago, ruf said:

yes we would have to rotate by sprinkling in Rochell and others, but i'm wanting to be aggressive with them on early downs. TB should first not have a pockey to step up into (so thats why i wanted Steward and Stallworth there

I'd stunt to impact the pocket. Twist some guys, and on some twists, send the S. And just overall, move guys around like Defo and Paye to confuse them. Just vary the looks so the OL can't get comfortable. 

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20 minutes ago, coming on strong said:

i watched a bunch of their games this year it looks like they use screens  as their running game  to take pressure off of brady .  they remind me of the broncos 2013 team where they had a elite pass blocking line but were not a smash mouth run  blocking line .  that team also used screens  to off set blitzing and only ran enough to keep defenses in check .

Fournette gets 5ish targets per game. Bernard 2-3. So we can likely expect 5+. 

 

I agree they use it as the running game a bit, but overall, just think they have such a great group of talent in the passing/receiving area, it's just more efficient for them to pass.

 

With Brown likely out, and Evans and Godwin both perhaps hobbled, things could look very different this week. 

 

Very interested to follow their practice report this week.

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11 minutes ago, chad72 said:

The issue will be if Brady goes no huddle taking us out of our package alignments. Brady, 100%, will attack our seams and try to draw the safeties up before taking his shots against 1-on-1s at the end of quarters or halves like he has done under Leftwich. When we do blitz, we still have to maintain safety help on Mike Evans' side since that is the side he goes to when blitzes happen or they run screen passes to Godwin or their slot wide out, pretty much most of the time. 

 

The Bucs game plan, to attack the weakness of our D will be heavy usage of the pass catching RB and the TEs. We have to be able to show man coverage and change to zone after the snap for some confusion creation, like Dennis Allen did with the Saints. Granted, we don't have a Lattimore but I think we can play Godwin 1-on-1 and lean safeties towards Mike Evans while throwing a curve ball as the game goes on in the 4th qtr. shifting double teams post snap towards Godwin. 

 

Since I know our pass rush, like @EastStreet said, our best bet is our O to keep Brady on the sidelines more often, and excessive blitzing would be suicide, disguising coverage is our best option.

 

Here is a breakdown of QBs vs the blitz, sorted by blitz dropbacks (tells me Todd Bowles will bring it and that Brady's completion percentage goes down more than 3% while blitzed, unlike his Patriot days, surprised that Kyler Murray, Stafford and Burrow drop 8% in completion rates while blitzed):

 

https://www.ftnfantasy.com/nfl/tools/qb-against-the-blitz-stats

 

 

Here's the last two weeks passing charts for Brady. Notice how different they are. They lost week 10 to WFT, but shows how they attack differently week to week.

 

With Brown likely out, and both Godwin and Evans gimpy, not quite sure what will happen. Might be a Gronk fest.

 

On Brady's blitz comp rate, going down 3% when blitzed isn't a lot at all. And he's still #8 best when pressured. 

Agree on blitzing a lot might be suicide, especially with LBs that aren't really effective anyway. A few S blitzes are good enough for me. And stunting with the existing front 4 will likely create more havoc than a LB blitz anyway. Move the pieces, not send them all.

 

Week 11 vs Giants. All over the field left to right and seam, short and vertical. Going to assume this is how they attack the Colts.

pass-chart_BRA371156_2021-REG-11_1637640

Week 10 vs WFT

Much shorter and much more slanted to the left.

pass-chart_BRA371156_2021-REG-10_1636923

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2 hours ago, EastStreet said:

 

I do think Brady will kill our zone, but he also #2 in deep ball attempts. And he's the least pressured QB in the league, and is #8 in pressured completion rate.... 

 

So in short, it's not probably we're going to get to him a lot. But when we do, he's still very good lol.... And while he can pick our zone apart short, he'll also let it rip. That's why they call him the goat.

 

That's why I say our O is likely our best chance.

now im thinking we should rush 3 and drop 8 in coverage

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5 minutes ago, ruf said:

now im thinking we should rush 3 and drop 8 in coverage

I think Brady/Arians would be smart enough to unleash Founette/Jones/Bernard if we did that. 

Brady hardly does RPO at all, but they could be kill us on the ground if we go light with a 3-2-6 or 3-3-5. 

If we still had Walker, I might be OK with a 3-3-5. 

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1 hour ago, EastStreet said:

 

Here's the last two weeks passing charts for Brady. Notice how different they are. They lost week 10 to WFT, but shows how they attack differently week to week.

 

With Brown likely out, and both Godwin and Evans gimpy, not quite sure what will happen. Might be a Gronk fest.

 

On Brady's blitz comp rate, going down 3% when blitzed isn't a lot at all. And he's still #8 best when pressured. 

Agree on blitzing a lot might be suicide, especially with LBs that aren't really effective anyway. A few S blitzes are good enough for me. And stunting with the existing front 4 will likely create more havoc than a LB blitz anyway. Move the pieces, not send them all.

 

Week 11 vs Giants. All over the field left to right and seam, short and vertical. Going to assume this is how they attack the Colts.

pass-chart_BRA371156_2021-REG-11_1637640

Week 10 vs WFT

Much shorter and much more slanted to the left.

pass-chart_BRA371156_2021-REG-10_1636923

we may should keep a lb on the rb's for those screen plays since the majority thinks they are not good at blizting 

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2 hours ago, chad72 said:

The issue will be if Brady goes no huddle taking us out of our package alignments. Brady, 100%, will attack our seams and try to draw the safeties up before taking his shots against 1-on-1s at the end of quarters or halves like he has done under Leftwich. When we do blitz, we still have to maintain safety help on Mike Evans' side since that is the side he goes to when blitzes happen or they run screen passes to Godwin or their slot wide out, pretty much most of the time. 

 

The Bucs game plan, to attack the weakness of our D will be heavy usage of the pass catching RB and the TEs. We have to be able to show man coverage and change to zone after the snap for some confusion creation, like Dennis Allen did with the Saints. Granted, we don't have a Lattimore but I think we can play Godwin 1-on-1 and lean safeties towards Mike Evans while throwing a curve ball as the game goes on in the 4th qtr. shifting double teams post snap towards Godwin. 

 

Since I know our pass rush, like @EastStreet said, our best bet is our O to keep Brady on the sidelines more often, and excessive blitzing would be suicide, disguising coverage is our best option.

 

Here is a breakdown of QBs vs the blitz, sorted by blitz dropbacks (tells me Todd Bowles will bring it and that Brady's completion percentage goes down more than 3% while blitzed, unlike his Patriot days):

 

https://www.ftnfantasy.com/nfl/tools/qb-against-the-blitz-stats

 

Off topic but Murray blitz completion percentage being at 80% is a cheat code

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1 minute ago, ruf said:

we may should keep a lb on the rb's for those screen plays since the majority thinks they are not good at blizting 

Not really worried a ton about screens. At least no more than usual. Leonard will be fine in his normal role so long as his ankle isn't worse. Rock, Rhodes, Kenny, and Sendejo are willing tacklers. Odum looks to doing better than expected. The only DB that would really worry me vs the screen in Rodgers. Oke is a bit iffy tackling in traffic, but not really any other options. 

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They’ve been held to 19 points twice, and one was a win.  They normally score more than 30.  
 

Simply put, their offense is better than our defense.   (And everyone know pressure up the middle on TB12 is the way to slow them down)  
 

Can our offense match them?  IMO our concern is how we script the O knowing they’re keying on JT.   

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1 hour ago, Smonroe said:

They’ve been held to 19 points twice, and one was a win.  They normally score more than 30.  
 

Simply put, their offense is better than our defense.   (And everyone know pressure up the middle on TB12 is the way to slow them down)  
 

Can our offense match them?  IMO our concern is how we script the O knowing they’re keying on JT.   

They can key if they want but they can't stop him

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3 hours ago, Smonroe said:

They’ve been held to 19 points twice, and one was a win.  They normally score more than 30.  
 

Simply put, their offense is better than our defense.   (And everyone know pressure up the middle on TB12 is the way to slow them down)  
 

Can our offense match them?  IMO our concern is how we script the O knowing they’re keying on JT.   

If Marpet has to miss this game then we should have a great chance to get pressure up the middle on Brady.  His playing status is the one I’m most interested in.

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Flus did a great job of showing one look and running a different coverage after snap.  Not sure if he can be as creative this week?

 

Has anyone run cover zero on Brady this year?  Do we have enough press corners (besides Rock) to run it?  That may not confuse Brady but might mess up their blocking if we move D-Fo around a bit?  I know it sure would confuse me to see us run it, lol.

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5 hours ago, MB-ColtsFan said:

Flus did a great job of showing one look and running a different coverage after snap.  Not sure if he can be as creative this week?

 

Has anyone run cover zero on Brady this year?  Do we have enough press corners (besides Rock) to run it?  That may not confuse Brady but might mess up their blocking if we move D-Fo around a bit?  I know it sure would confuse me to see us run it, lol.

Sometimes, but not all the time. Each opponent is different. A good coach will both see this, and know this.

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12 hours ago, Smonroe said:

They’ve been held to 19 points twice, and one was a win.  They normally score more than 30.  
 

Simply put, their offense is better than our defense.   (And everyone know pressure up the middle on TB12 is the way to slow them down)  
 

Can our offense match them?  IMO our concern is how we script the O knowing they’re keying on JT.   

this is very true that they will key on JT we need Hines (in two back sets) with miss direction plays. their lb's are fast so blocking will be a must. i also think CW needs to roll out more against this team. and PLEASE don't run up the middle with Vita back

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