Vegas expects Colts surge

[ColtStrong2013]

Vegas predicts a Colts Surge

 

“The Colts should bounce up,” Westgate sports book manager Ed Salmons said. “Reich is a huge upgrade from Pagano. The last few years, Luck would just get knocked on his butt the whole game. I want to see more of Luck, but I like the Colts.”

The Westgate opened Indianapolis’ season win total at 6½ in late April. With Luck showing positive signs, the number has been bumped to 7½.



Thoughts? Interesting to me that the first thing mentioned is the coaching "upgrade." I put that in quotation because no one knows for certain if it is an upgrade or not, but Vegas apparently thinks it is... and a HUGE one at that. They obviously value the coaching tremendously for setting the over/under on win total.

[Case]

I don’t think people fully understand how much of an impact making a change at HC is going to have. We were simply “out-coached” in several games last year. 

 

Getting a lead and playing super conservative in the 2nd half was the norm last year. 

 

Players dhdnt improve with the old staff which cripples teams. Now we have hope. 

 

Luck for the first time will have a good o line (assuming AC is healthy) and a quality HC who has not only played the game but won a super bowl last year. 

 

I’m so jacked up for this season. 

[2006Coltsbestever]

It will be 8.5 before opening day IMO. I have said that for a while. People that I work with and most of my friends and even my step-dad think the Colts can win 9 games. If it stays at 7.5 that is money to make because I don't see us worse than 8-8 if Luck plays all 16 games.

[#12.]

9 minutes ago, ColtStrong2013 said:

Reich is a huge upgrade from Pagano.

 

We hope, but he has yet to coach a game.  

 

It still mainly comes down to talent.  If the talent isn't there on defense, if the O-line doesn't show dramatic improvement, it will be the same struggle, but now in a much improved division.

[Smonroe]

I don’t want to get started on the Pagano bad coach thing, and I agree we were bad in the second half of games.  

 

But lets give some credit to the coaches for keeping us in those games with such a lack of talent.  And before we say Reich is such a huge upgrade, how about we wait and see what happens in a few real games?

 

I agree with @ColtStrong2013   Value of coaching is great, but we really don’t know what that is yet.  And I hope I’m wrong, but if our DC is going to run a Bend don’t Break D, we’re in for a painful season.  

[2006Coltsbestever]

You have to look at it like this, if you had 100 dollars to bet would you bet the over if it was at 7.5. I would and I have friends that would. If it's 8.5 that is something I would have to think about because I could see us going 8-8, although I have picked us to go 9-7. Alot of people I know feel the same way. 

[ColtStrong2013]

3 minutes ago, Smonroe said:

I don’t want to get started on the Pagano bad coach thing, and I agree we were bad in the second half of games.  

 

But lets give some credit to the coaches for keeping us in those games with such a lack of talent.  And before we say Reich is such a huge upgrade, how about we wait and see what happens in a few real games?

 

I agree with @ColtStrong2013   Value of coaching is great, but we really don’t know what that is yet.  And I hope I’m wrong, but if our DC is going to run a Bend don’t Break D, we’re in for a painful season.  

I should note that I did not post this article to bad mouth Pagano in any way. I've expressed my feelings in this forum about him as a coach, and this isn't meant to reiterate those feelings. I only hope that Reich is a great and better coach, but we have no idea if we will be... We might be wishing for Chuck back. 

 

I only post because it is relevant to this forum, and I found it interesting. 7.5 is a fair line for win total. Much better than the 1 or 2 some experts have predicted early (insane.) I found it interesting that impartial line setters, who could care less about the Colts, Pagano, or Frank Reich outside of a betting scenario, think that Frank is a huge upgrade in coaching for this team, and that it is a big factor in their formula.

[ColtStrong2013]

9 minutes ago, Smonroe said:

I don’t want to get started on the Pagano bad coach thing, and I agree we were bad in the second half of games.  

 

But lets give some credit to the coaches for keeping us in those games with such a lack of talent.  And before we say Reich is such a huge upgrade, how about we wait and see what happens in a few real games?

 

I agree with @ColtStrong2013   Value of coaching is great, but we really don’t know what that is yet.  And I hope I’m wrong, but if our DC is going to run a Bend don’t Break D, we’re in for a painful season.  

I will reiterate my feelings on this, however... I completely disagree. Bend but don't break works in today's NFL. No one dominates on defense like they have in the past. Offenses are too smart and too dang powerful today. The Eagles bent in the superbowl, but they made the plays they needed to in order to beat the Patriots. We can win a lot of games and feel good about our defense this season, if they progress as a unit and some young playmakers like Hooker, and Leonard, possibly Basham and Turay come out and make big plays. If we truly bend but don't break, it's a huge win for this defense this season. I don't think it will be painful... I think it will be exciting to watch a young unit get better and make plays over the course of the season. 

[Gramz]

Feeling Optimistic...   Good times ahead.

[Case]

1 hour ago, #12. said:

 

We hope, but he has yet to coach a game.  

 

It still mainly comes down to talent.  If the talent isn't there on defense, if the O-line doesn't show dramatic improvement, it will be the same struggle, but now in a much improved division.

Talent is a big part of it but BB has proven you don’t need great talent across the board to win games. Look what he did in 2008 when Brady went down week 1. 

 

Im not saying you can win with a bunch of scrubs but great coaching can hide a lot of flaws. 

[superrep1967]

1 hour ago, 2006Coltsbestever said:

It will be 8.5 before opening day IMO. I have said that for a while. People that I work with and most of my friends and even my step-dad think the Colts can win 9 games. If it stays at 7.5 that is money to make because I don't see us worse than 8-8 if Luck plays all 16 games.

I agree! But I am concerned about our wr position we’re really thin and lack talent besides Hilton

[2006Coltsbestever]

1 minute ago, superrep1967 said:

I agree! But I am concerned about our wr position we’re really thin and lack talent besides Hilton

Obviously I have my concerns there as well and with our Defense. I do think our Defense will be better than last years though, I am hoping Chester Rodgers can step up a bit at WR. I like Ebron too, between he and Doyle they both may have big years? TY Hilton definitely needs to stay healthy! I also look at last season where we lost 6 games by 7 points or less too. With Luck I believe we win 4 of those games at worse. Even as bad as our Defense was last season, we were in alot of games. Luck is just such a difference maker, he is a 4 or 5 game difference maker on a bad team if you plug him on a team that has Bad or Average play at QB. I think Brissett played Average for what we had last season but Luck is capable of playing Very Good if not Great. 

[Shepman]

6 minutes ago, 2006Coltsbestever said:

Obviously I have my concerns there as well and with our Defense. I do think our Defense will be better than last years though, I am hoping Chester Rodgers can step up a bit at WR. I like Ebron too, between he and Doyle they both may have big years? TY Hilton definitely needs to stay healthy! I also look at last season where we lost 6 games by 7 points or less too. With Luck I believe we win 4 of those games at worse. Even as bad as our Defense was last season, we were in alot of games. Luck is just such a difference maker, he is a 4 or 5 game difference maker on a bad team if you plug him on a team that has Bad or Average play at QB. I think Brissett played Average for what we had last season but Luck is capable of playing Very Good if not Great. 

Defense should be better by virtue of Offense being on the field longer.  Especially with some dink and dunk mixed in which equates to longer sustained drives.

[WoolMagnet]

I'm torn on how many games we will win.

But i believe the "surge" of a win increase inVegas has more to do with their growing confidence in Luck than anything else.  After all, they knew of the coaching change on the previous odds. Luck's status was still anyone's guess.

[2006Coltsbestever]

1 minute ago, WoolMagnet said:

I'm torn on how many games we will win.

But i believe the "surge" of a win increase inVegas has more to do with their growing confidence in Luck than anything else.  After all, they knew of the coaching change on the previous odds. Luck's status was still anyone's guess.

Yep, betting on Luck winning less than 8 games isn't wise, Vegas knows this.

[Smonroe]

2 hours ago, ColtStrong2013 said:

I will reiterate my feelings on this, however... I completely disagree. Bend but don't break works in today's NFL. No one dominates on defense like they have in the past. Offenses are too smart and too dang powerful today. The Eagles bent in the superbowl, but they made the plays they needed to in order to beat the Patriots. We can win a lot of games and feel good about our defense this season, if they progress as a unit and some young playmakers like Hooker, and Leonard, possibly Basham and Turay come out and make big plays. If we truly bend but don't break, it's a huge win for this defense this season. I don't think it will be painful... I think it will be exciting to watch a young unit get better and make plays over the course of the season. 

 

Again, I hope I’m wrong about the D.  What I meant by ‘painful’ is what I’m sure everyone remembers:

 

Peyton standing on the sidelines waiting for what seemed like endless minutes, just to get his chance back on the field.  While the D would play BdB and hope for their O to either make a mistake or settle for a FG.  I want to see an aggressive D, even if it results in giving up a big play every now and then. 

 

The other issue with that D is how much pressure it puts on the O.  A quick 3 and out puts a tired D right back on the field.  

 

Not saying thats thats what I’m sure its going to happen this year, but it’s my main concern.  

[ColtStrong2013]

15 minutes ago, Smonroe said:

 

Again, I hope I’m wrong about the D.  What I meant by ‘painful’ is what I’m sure everyone remembers:

 

Peyton standing on the sidelines waiting for what seemed like endless minutes, just to get his chance back on the field.  While the D would play BdB and hope for their O to either make a mistake or settle for a FG.  I want to see an aggressive D, even if it results in giving up a big play every now and then. 

 

The other issue with that D is how much pressure it puts on the O.  A quick 3 and out puts a tired D right back on the field.  

 

Not saying thats thats what I’m sure its going to happen this year, but it’s my main concern.  

This defense is designed to play more aggressive. So compared to years past, I think we will see some big plays that could disrupt a game. Defensively, how our offense plays (sustaining long drives, eating clock and shortening the game, and putting points early) will change the way this defense plays and their success. Early leads and long drives offensively will allow this young defense to take gambles and make big plays that hopefully puts some games away this season. 

[LockeDown]

This defense is designed to be more opportunistic than the Manning era.  We’re going for the ball so I don’t view that as bend.

[Boiler_Colt]

I imagine the defense will not be great in terms of yardage but the only hope is that they tighten up in the redzone and are very opportunistic with turnovers. Patriots D last year did that and were good enough to get the job done despite being statistically horrible in terms of yardage.

[Chrisaaron1023]

12 minutes ago, LockeDown said:

This defense is designed to be more opportunistic than the Manning era.  We’re going for the ball so I don’t view that as bend.

I hope so.. that soft cover 2 will get chewed up on 3rd and mid all season

 

I am excited for Colts football.. even if we suck. At least I get to watch Luck everyweek.

[Smonroe]

47 minutes ago, ColtStrong2013 said:

This defense is designed to play more aggressive. So compared to years past, I think we will see some big plays that could disrupt a game. Defensively, how our offense plays (sustaining long drives, eating clock and shortening the game, and putting points early) will change the way this defense plays and their success. Early leads and long drives offensively will allow this young defense to take gambles and make big plays that hopefully puts some games away this season. 

 

That's what's being advertised, but not what we're seeing.  Yes, they are running to the ball and I love the intensity we saw.  However, our first team D got owned on both drives from the first team Seattle O.  (Yes, it's preseason...)

 

What I didn't like was that scheme.  There were holes in the zone so big that you could park there all day.  According to Kevin Bowen, who's been to all of the practices, that's what he's seeing there too.

 

I know it's going to be rough early on, we have so many young guys.  But I hate hearing quotes from guys saying they have to learn to be 'passive aggressive'.  Meaning they're waiting for the play to come to them rather than attacking the ball in the air.  Can't wait to be proven wrong on Monday.

[luv_pony_express]

4 hours ago, ColtStrong2013 said:

Vegas predicts a Colts Surge

 

“The Colts should bounce up,” Westgate sports book manager Ed Salmons said. “Reich is a huge upgrade from Pagano. The last few years, Luck would just get knocked on his butt the whole game. I want to see more of Luck, but I like the Colts.”

The Westgate opened Indianapolis’ season win total at 6½ in late April. With Luck showing positive signs, the number has been bumped to 7½.



Thoughts? Interesting to me that the first thing mentioned is the coaching "upgrade." I put that in quotation because no one knows for certain if it is an upgrade or not, but Vegas apparently thinks it is... and a HUGE one at that. They obviously value the coaching tremendously for setting the over/under on win total.

 

It’s way too soon to say anything so definitive about Reich as a head coach.  It’s his first gig, for crying out loud.

[ColtStrong2013]

4 hours ago, luv_pony_express said:

 

It’s way too soon to say anything so definitive about Reich as a head coach.  It’s his first gig, for crying out loud.

I took their comments as a large slam on Pagano's coaching. From a betting standpoint, however,  Pagano teams were always consistent. They had some of the most consistent spread covering year after year. So, with that said, it might be Vegas' way of being excited about the unknowns for the Colts for a change, or it might be their way of seriously saying they thought he was really bad, and Reich is a major upgrade, even if he doesn't pan out to what he should do a minimum. I think that's why I found this article so interesting. Trying to see it from a bookkeeping perspective is weird. 

[throwing BBZ]

We should have a difficult time covering based on our youth. 

The pass rush will be decent maybe.
The linebackers tackling and being at the right place should be spotty.

 And the young receivers should have problems with timing.
 2-4 in our division and 5-5 outside is my tops.

[Superman]

6 hours ago, Smonroe said:

 

That's what's being advertised, but not what we're seeing.  Yes, they are running to the ball and I love the intensity we saw.  However, our first team D got owned on both drives from the first team Seattle O.  (Yes, it's preseason...)

 

What I didn't like was that scheme.  There were holes in the zone so big that you could park there all day.  According to Kevin Bowen, who's been to all of the practices, that's what he's seeing there too.

 

I know it's going to be rough early on, we have so many young guys.  But I hate hearing quotes from guys saying they have to learn to be 'passive aggressive'.  Meaning they're waiting for the play to come to them rather than attacking the ball in the air.  Can't wait to be proven wrong on Monday.

 

I don't think you'll be proven wrong Monday, or at any point this year. I think the defense will be pretty ragged this season, unless a really good pass rush and a 3 tech emerge.

 

As for the defense in the first preseason game, I disliked some of the alignments. A few times outside corners were 10+ yards off the line of scrimmage, which I hate. I hope we don't see much more of that, especially outside of 3rd and long. But the players in the secondary won't get many chances to make plays unless the front can get stops on early downs and get pressure in passing situations. 

 

I don't have a problem with the scheme. It's not my favorite; I'd prefer a man based coverage philosophy, but zone has it's advantages. On the field, it's more effective at defending mobile QBs; for team building, it's less expensive. The key -- as it is with almost everything -- will be good drafting and good player development. Find good players, and help them succeed. If they don't do one or both of those well, it doesn't matter what scheme they run. But I don't think the scheme itself is flawed. It's had plenty of success, even in the modern NFL.

[Superman]

2 hours ago, ColtStrong2013 said:

I took their comments as a large slam on Pagano's coaching. From a betting standpoint, however,  Pagano teams were always consistent. They had some of the most consistent spread covering year after year. So, with that said, it might be Vegas' way of being excited about the unknowns for the Colts for a change, or it might be their way of seriously saying they thought he was really bad, and Reich is a major upgrade, even if he doesn't pan out to what he should do a minimum. I think that's why I found this article so interesting. Trying to see it from a bookkeeping perspective is weird. 

 

I take it as a confidence that the new staff will help the offense be more effective, especially late in games. Not necessarily a knock against Pagano, but definitely a knock on the offensive staff.

 

Reich still has a lot to prove. I'm hopeful, but we'll see what he does.

[SOMDColtsfan]

I believe keeping the talent on the field, like most teams... barring major injuries... will determine this teams fate. Those cant be predicted but will play a major role 

[BOTT]

8 hours ago, luv_pony_express said:

 

It’s way too soon to say anything so definitive about Reich as a head coach.  It’s his first gig, for crying out loud.

I will go out on a limb and predict the new coach will be a major upgrade over the previous guy. Not exactly a high bar.

[southwest1]

13 hours ago, ColtStrong2013 said:

“The Colts should bounce up,” Westgate sports book manager Ed Salmons said.

I know a ton of people regard Skip Bayless as a pundit clown & they are justified in their conclusion of him on FS1's "Undisputed." I mostly just watch the show cause I like Shannon Sharpe. But man, I'd love to see Skip be forced to eat those words in Sin City & admit that INDY is not as bad as everybody seems to think we are. 

 

Plus, how many times can 1 man do love fest get a room topic on Dak Prescott, Tim Tebow,  Baker Mayfield, LeBron James hate, Tiger Woods, & Jerry Jones? What I really want is Skip to admit that Luck can actually play ball on the air. He always undercuts him every chance he gets without fail. He also always has some stupid comment about Jim Irsay too like clockwork.

 

Yes, Frank is definitely an upgrade & as a former QB himself, he knows what QBs want in the pocket.

[southwest1]

12 hours ago, ColtStrong2013 said:

I should note that I did not post this article to bad mouth Pagano in any way. I've expressed my feelings in this forum about him as a coach, and this isn't meant to reiterate those feelings. I only hope that Reich is a great and better coach, but we have no idea if we will be..

We all know that. We just wanna be relevant again & back in the thick of things late in the year. Nobody is really slamming Pagano at this point just Grigson. Like others have already correctly stated, first time HC gigs seldom flow smoothly. With a new face comes renewed optimism.

 

We have confidence in Reich strictly off of 1 man's Cinderella success story: Nick Foles. Nobody & I mean nobody thought he'd be holding the Lombardi trophy above his head in February.

[southwest1]

53 minutes ago, BOTT said:

I will go out on a limb and predict the new coach will be a major upgrade over the previous guy. Not exactly a high bar.

You have a gift in the sarcasm department BOTT.

 

You can't really teach it. You just know it when you see it because it literally drips off the page.

 

Well played sir; well played. I like regulars as messed up as I am.

[2006Coltsbestever]

5 minutes ago, southwest1 said:

We all know that. We just wanna be relevant again & back in the thick of things late in the year. Nobody is really slamming Pagano at this point just Grigson. Like others have already correctly stated, first time HC gigs seldom flow smoothly. With a new face comes renewed optimism.

 

We have confidence in Reich strictly off of 1 man's Cinderella success story: Nick Foles. Nobody & I mean nobody thought he'd be holding the Lombardi trophy above his head in February.

Frank Reich was also a Good backup behind Jim Kelly in Buffalo. Went to 4 straight SB's under Coach Levy during the 90's. Reich's resume is pretty impressive when including last season with Philly. He still holds the NFL record for greatest Playoff game comeback ever. Bills were down 35-3 to the Oliers (1992) in the 3rd Qtr, Kelly gets injured and in comes Reich. Buffalo wins 41-38! 

[IinD]

5 minutes ago, 2006Coltsbestever said:

Frank Reich was also a Good backup behind Jim Kelly in Buffalo. Went to 4 straight SB's under Coach Levy during the 90's. Reich's resume is pretty impressive when including last season with Philly. He still holds the NFL record for greatest Playoff game comeback ever. Bills were down 35-3 to the Oliers (1992) in the 3rd Qtr, Kelly gets injured and in comes Reich. Buffalo wins 41-38! 

And throw in he's had relationships with Polian way back then, Peyton and Irsay.

 

If there was a candidate who has had great influences, it's Reich.

 

And like you said, a guy who can come off the bench cold and light up a playoff team definitely understands preparation. I feel he'll make us a smarter team all around. I felt under Pagano we weren't a very 'smart' team if that makes any sense. I feel that will change.

[southwest1]

5 minutes ago, 2006Coltsbestever said:

Frank Reich was also a Good backup behind Jim Kelly in Buffalo. Went to 4 straight SB's under Coach Levy during the 90's. Reich's resume is pretty impressive when including last season with Philly. He still holds the NFL record for greatest Playoff game comeback ever. Bills were down 35-3 to the Oliers (1992) in the 3rd Qtr, Kelly gets injured and in comes Reich. Buffalo wins 41-38! 

Yeah, anybody who got to understudy with Jim Kelly & Marv Levy is automatically a sharp cookie & no slouch indeed. Still can't believe Kelly & Levy didn't win at least 1 ring together. Not blaming either guy. I just remember the Buffalo 90's run well. That SB stretch will never be seen again.

[Stephen]

9 hours ago, Boiler_Colt said:

I imagine the defense will not be great in terms of yardage but the only hope is that they tighten up in the redzone and are very opportunistic with turnovers. Patriots D last year did that and were good enough to get the job done despite being statistically horrible in terms of yardage.

We could give up a million yards as long as we stop them from scoring tds

[boo2202]

New coaching staff

QB that hasn't played in basically 2 years

over turned roster

Injuries

 

=7-9

 

just my prediction

 

but will be much more entertaining with luck back and the future is bright.

[Superman]

2 hours ago, boo2202 said:

New coaching staff

QB that hasn't played in basically 2 years

over turned roster

Injuries

 

=7-9

 

just my prediction

 

but will be much more entertaining with luck back and the future is bright.

 

1) Basically every time the Colts change coaching staffs, the team wins more games than the previous season. From Mora to Dungy, +4 wins; from Dungy to Caldwell, +4 wins; from Caldwell to Pagano, +9 wins.

 

2) Why do we have to try to find ways to sensationalize the length of time Luck missed? He didn't play for a year. He missed one season. He's not the first QB to miss a season.

 

3) Overturned bad roster. And it's two years in the making.

 

4) Every team has injuries, every year. It's football.

[ColtStrong2013]

14 hours ago, southwest1 said:

We all know that. We just wanna be relevant again & back in the thick of things late in the year. Nobody is really slamming Pagano at this point just Grigson. Like others have already correctly stated, first time HC gigs seldom flow smoothly. With a new face comes renewed optimism.

 

We have confidence in Reich strictly off of 1 man's Cinderella success story: Nick Foles. Nobody & I mean nobody thought he'd be holding the Lombardi trophy above his head in February.

Pagano has nothing to do with this team anymore. His mistakes are in the rearview. Grigson's mistakes have a long lasting impact, and we are going to be dealing with them for a few years. Until we see a solid depth chart and a 11-12 win season, we are going to mention that dreadful name...

[BR-549]

On 8/17/2018 at 10:57 AM, WoolMagnet said:

I'm torn on how many games we will win.

But i believe the "surge" of a win increase inVegas has more to do with their growing confidence in Luck than anything else.  After all, they knew of the coaching change on the previous odds. Luck's status was still anyone's guess.

Id say thats about right ... (in my hillbilly voice)

[BR-549]

14 hours ago, Superman said:

 

1) Basically every time the Colts change coaching staffs, the team wins more games than the previous season. From Mora to Dungy, +4 wins; from Dungy to Caldwell, +4 wins; from Caldwell to Pagano, +9 wins.

 

2) Why do we have to try to find ways to sensationalize the length of time Luck missed? He didn't play for a year. He missed one season. He's not the first QB to miss a season.

 

3) Overturned bad roster. And it's two years in the making.

 

4) Every team has injuries, every year. It's football.

In other words ....

 

If I had ever been here before
I would probably know just what to do
Don't you?
If I had ever been here before on another time around the wheel
I would probably know just how to deal
With all of you ....

 

-David Crosby