Matt Miller's January Big Board: 1. Barkley, 2. Fitzpatrick, 3. Nelson

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http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2752405-2018-nfl-draft-big-board-matt-millers-post-regular-season-rankings

 

Rank	Player	School
1	RB Saquon Barkley	Penn State
2	S Minkah Fitzpatrick	Alabama
3	OG Quenton Nelson	Notre Dame
4	LB Roquan Smith	Georgia
5	QB Josh Rosen	UCLA
6	DE Bradley Chubb	NC State
7	QB Sam Darnold	USC
8	OT Connor Williams	Texas
9	RB Derrius Guice	LSU
10	CB Josh Jackson	Iowa
11	CB Denzel Ward	Ohio State
12	QB Josh Allen	Wyoming
13	QB Baker Mayfield	Oklahoma
14	LB Rashaan Evans	Alabama
15	WR Calvin Ridley	Alabama
16	S Derwin James	FSU
17	DE Clelin Ferrell	Clemson
18	DT Christian Wilkins	Clemson
19	DE Harold Landry	Boston College
20	S Ronnie Harrison	Alabama
21	CB Isaiah Oliver	Colorado
22	OT Mike McGlinchey	Notre Dame
23	LB Malik Jefferson	Texas
24	RB Ronald Jones II	USC
25	RB Damien Harris	Alabama
26	RB Kerryon Johnson	Auburn
27	DE Sam Hubbard	Ohio State
28	WR Courtland Sutton	SMU
29	C Billy Price	Ohio State
30	DT Maurice Hurst	Michigan
31	TE Dallas Goedert	South Dakota St.
32	DT Vita Vea	Washington
33	DE Arden Key	LSU
34	CB Carlton Davis	Auburn
35	DT Dre'Mont Jones	Ohio State
36	WR Christian Kirk	Texas A&M
37	QB Mason Rudolph	Oklahoma St.
38	OT Orlando Brown	Oklahoma
39	DE Austin Bryant	Clemson
40	OT Chukwuma Okorafor	Western Michigan
41	DT Derrick Nnadi	FSU
42	DT Da'Ron Payne	Alabama
43	OT Kolton Miller	UCLA
44	WR Deon Cain	Clemson
45	CB Tarvarus McFadden	FSU
46	DT Harrison Phillips	Stanford
47	DT Da'Shawn Hand	Alabama
48	DT Rasheem Green	USC
49	DE Dorance Armstrong Jr.	Kansas
50	LB Leighton Vander Esch	Boise State

[Barry Sears]

If Smith is truly #4, then he won't be available after the first 10 picks will he?  I know we need a guy like that, but I doubt we can get him even with a trade down.  Will be interesting.  I just watched a video of Bradley Chubb...he is quick, but most of the plays he made were against terrible left tackles or he was unblocked.  Maybe others have seen a different highlight reel.

[Defjamz26]

Came in to post this lol. But his Top 4 is spot on. Those are the best players in the draft. You couldn’t go wrong with any of them. I’d take any of them at number 3 and not be disappointed.

[Surge89]

13 minutes ago, Barry Sears said:

If Smith is truly #4, then he won't be available after the first 10 picks will he?  I know we need a guy like that, but I doubt we can get him even with a trade down.  Will be interesting.  I just watched a video of Bradley Chubb...he is quick, but most of the plays he made were against terrible left tackles or he was unblocked.  Maybe others have seen a different highlight reel.

 

I've been watching him (Chubb) lately since the forum is so high on him.  He has great hands (I mean truly great) and tenacity.  He can bend and dip and swim.  My worry is that his athleticism isn't going to translate well to the NFL and he needs to be smarter with the way he sets up tackles.  I'm no longer leaning that it's a coaching issue as you see the technique and it is there but more of a player issue.  He needs to understand that he can setup the tackle to make his job easier and sometimes take the inside gap without "swimming" to take advantage of one of his best attributes, his strength.  The plus on him is that he has room to grow which is crazy with how good he already is.  I'm still not convinced though he is the right guy at 3.

 

Smith on the other hand is the real deal.  But I tend to stay away from mentioning his name as this forum is very stringent on positional value even in sight of some truly elite prospects. But Smith is everything you want in an ILB who can be one of those players that never comes off the field even in pass packages. 

[BProland85]

I've been a proponent of trading back with the Jets, still landing hopefully either Fitzpatrick or Barkley at 6, and if both are gone taking Quenton Nelson.

 

Then with the added ammo of 2nd rounders, trade back up into the mid 1st range to get ILB Roquan Smith. Since Smith is a bit undersized, he could last outside of the top 10-15 picks. 

 

I love Fitzpatrick most, and if we drafted him I would hope it would be to play shutdown corner. Having 2 studs in the secondary in Fitzpatrick and Hooker would do wonders for this defense in the effort to making it one of the best. 

[Surge89]

Watch out for Malik Jefferson too.  I won't be surprised if he starts shooting up boards.  3 down linebacker as well.

[Luck 4 president]

25 minutes ago, Barry Sears said:

If Smith is truly #4, then he won't be available after the first 10 picks will he?  I know we need a guy like that, but I doubt we can get him even with a trade down.  Will be interesting.  I just watched a video of Bradley Chubb...he is quick, but most of the plays he made were against terrible left tackles or he was unblocked.  Maybe others have seen a different highlight reel.

Rankings and draft position are completely different things. With 3-4 QBs going in the top 6 picks he will likely be there around 10. Last year Rueben Foster was ranked a top 5 player but didn’t get drafted until the end of the 1st. That was partly due to his position and also some other concerns.

[DaColts85]

7 minutes ago, Luck 4 president said:

Rankings and draft position are completely different things. With 3-4 QBs going in the top 6 picks he will likely be there around 10. Last year Rueben Foster was ranked a top 5 player but didn’t get drafted until the end of the 1st. That was partly due to his position and also some other concerns.

It was not due to his position.  Is was due to a failed drug test and health concerns.  Position wise you had Hassan Reddick who was picked at 11 or 13 I believe by the Cards.

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29 minutes ago, Surge89 said:

 

I've been watching him (Chubb) lately since the forum is so high on him.  He has great hands (I mean truly great) and tenacity.  He can bend and dip and swim.  My worry is that his athleticism isn't going to translate well to the NFL and he needs to be smarter with the way he sets up tackles.  I'm no longer leaning that it's a coaching issue as you see the technique and it is there but more of a player issue.  He needs to understand that he can setup the tackle to make his job easier and sometimes take the inside gap without "swimming" to take advantage of one of his best attributes, his strength.  The plus on him is that he has room to grow which is crazy with how good he already is.  I'm still not convinced though he is the right guy at 3.

 

Smith on the other hand is the real deal.  But I tend to stay away from mentioning his name as this forum is very stringent on positional value even in sight of some truly elite prospects. But Smith is everything you want in an ILB who can be one of those players that never comes off the field even in pass packages. 

Same worry I have - his athleticism. He needs to test well. This to me will be the determining factor. IMO he has good enough technique and tape. Now I need to be more comfortable with his athleticism and explosiveness. If he tests similarly to what Bosa did, I will be all in on Chubb. 

[NewColtsFan]

 

Color me NOT impressed with his Big Board.     Any part of it.     Sorry.

 

                

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13 minutes ago, Surge89 said:

Watch out for Malik Jefferson too.  I won't be surprised if he starts shooting up boards.  3 down linebacker as well.

He has very poor instincts and is bad at diagnosing plays. When he guesses right, he looks amazing. The problem is he doesn't guess right nearly enough. 

[Surge89]

3 minutes ago, stitches said:

Same worry I have - his athleticism. He needs to test well. This to me will be the determining factor. IMO he has good enough technique and tape. Now I need to be more comfortable with his athleticism and explosiveness. If he tests similarly to what Bosa did, I will be all in on Chubb. 

 

If he tests well I don't see how he escapes top 5.  He's everything you want physically.  Just needs his mental game refined.  

[Surge89]

2 minutes ago, stitches said:

He has very poor instincts and is bad at diagnosing plays. When he guesses right, he looks amazing. The problem is he doesn't guess right nearly enough. 

 

I'm willing to put some money that there's are at least 10 GMs that would say it was the terrible defensive coaching his past years that impacted him and see him like they do Chubb, just needing the "right place".  This year Texas had a good defensive staff and all of a sudden he started looking like the highly touted prospect he was when recruited. 

 

I think he's a low 1st high second in my grades but I won't be surprised if he shoots up when he tests.  He's just too good of an athlete.

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1 minute ago, Surge89 said:

 

I'm willing to put some money that there's are at least 10 GMs that would say it was the terrible defensive coaching his past years that impacted him and see him like they do Chubb, just needing the "right place".  This year Texas had a good defensive staff and all of a sudden he started looking like the highly touted prospect he was when recruited. 

 

I think he's a low 1st high second in my grades but I won't be surprised if he shoots up when he tests.  He's just too good of an athlete.

Maybe. I don't have him very high, though. I have Smith, Evans and Edmunds very clearly ahead of him. 

[Surge89]

4 minutes ago, stitches said:

Maybe. I don't have him very high, though. I have Smith, Evans and Edmunds very clearly ahead of him. 

 

Evans is great.  I've got nothing on Edmunds.

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5 minutes ago, Surge89 said:

 

Evans is great.  I've got nothing on Edmunds.

Check him out. I really like him. I wouldn't mind if we spent our second round pick on him. 

 

 

He's bigger and maybe a bit more physical than Evans and Roquan. I love his tackling and he has speed to chase sideline to sideline. 

[Defjamz26]

15 minutes ago, stitches said:

Check him out. I really like him. I wouldn't mind if we spent our second round pick on him. 

 

 

He's bigger and maybe a bit more physical than Evans and Roquan. I love his tackling and he has speed to chase sideline to sideline. 

We’re still waiting on him to declare. I really hope he does.

[Defjamz26]

26 minutes ago, Surge89 said:

 

I'm willing to put some money that there's are at least 10 GMs that would say it was the terrible defensive coaching his past years that impacted him and see him like they do Chubb, just needing the "right place".  This year Texas had a good defensive staff and all of a sudden he started looking like the highly touted prospect he was when recruited. 

 

I think he's a low 1st high second in my grades but I won't be surprised if he shoots up when he tests.  He's just too good of an athlete.

Athleticism and coverage ability is my issue. He didn’t have any PBU’s or INTs this year. Can he play in space? I hear conflicting things. Walter Football says he’s not a coverage ILB, but in his positional rankings, Miller says he’s the best LB in coverage. Last thing we need is another 2 down, phone booth LB who can’t cover.

[Barry Sears]

27 minutes ago, stitches said:

Check him out. I really like him. I wouldn't mind if we spent our second round pick on him. 

 

 

He's bigger and maybe a bit more physical than Evans and Roquan. I love his tackling and he has speed to chase sideline to sideline. 

 

He won't fit in here...the guy knows how to tackle   Seriously, he looks really good and I like his length and technique.

[Indy Fan]

Arden Key at 33 and Orlando Brown at 38, interesting. Both would be fantastic second round selections. 

[Nesjan3]

Dont agree with Nelson at #3, even if he is the 3rd best player in the draft the chances of him being drafted in the top 10 are slim to none IMO

[Finball]

45 minutes ago, Defjamz26 said:

Athleticism and coverage ability is my issue. He didn’t have any PBU’s or INTs this year. Can he play in space? I hear conflicting things. Walter Football says he’s not a coverage ILB, but in his positional rankings, Miller says he’s the best LB in coverage. Last thing we need is another 2 down, phone booth LB who can’t cover.

 

Dane Brugler and Lance Zierlein seem to have similar opinion on him; 1st round athlete, late round instincts. Kyle Crabbs compared him to Philip Wheeler, fwiw.

[Crunked]

I am glad the draft won't go down in that order....but it is interesting to see where everyone rates talent wise......now if we can just get some QB happy franchises in front of us, and some QB envy behind us we can have the pick of the litter.

[Blueblood23]

For those wanting Smith the Colts already have him in Geathers. Both are the same size and have the same skill set. I think Smith is too small for the NFL, as he is comparable Foster last year. Foster was limited in play due to injuries.

[Boiler_Colt]

6 minutes ago, Blueblood23 said:

For those wanting Smith the Colts already have him in Geathers. Both are the same size and have the same skill set. I think Smith is too small for the NFL, as he is comparable Foster last year. Foster was limited in play due to injuries.

Roquan is bigger than Telvin Smith and Telvin is one of the best linebackers in the league.

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1 hour ago, Nesjan3 said:

Dont agree with Nelson at #3, even if he is the 3rd best player in the draft the chances of him being drafted in the top 10 are slim to none IMO

This is big board. This is by quality of the player, not a mock or by positional value... 

[IndyScribe]

1 hour ago, Nesjan3 said:

Dont agree with Nelson at #3, even if he is the 3rd best player in the draft the chances of him being drafted in the top 10 are slim to none IMO

Top 3, definitely not. Top 10, maybe. And this is a big board. Nelson can potentially be the best player in this draft.

[Surge89]

5 hours ago, Defjamz26 said:

Athleticism and coverage ability is my issue. He didn’t have any PBU’s or INTs this year. Can he play in space? I hear conflicting things. Walter Football says he’s not a coverage ILB, but in his positional rankings, Miller says he’s the best LB in coverage. Last thing we need is another 2 down, phone booth LB who can’t cover.

 

No reason to question athleticism he has plenty.  A sideline to sideline guy. 

 

Not sure why he'd put that he's the best coverage guy because I don't think he is. Doesn't mean he's not capable but he isnt a coverage specialist. 

[OLD FAN MAN]

On 1/8/2018 at 12:12 PM, Surge89 said:

 

I've been watching him (Chubb) lately since the forum is so high on him.  He has great hands (I mean truly great) and tenacity.  He can bend and dip and swim.  My worry is that his athleticism isn't going to translate well to the NFL and he needs to be smarter with the way he sets up tackles.  I'm no longer leaning that it's a coaching issue as you see the technique and it is there but more of a player issue.  He needs to understand that he can setup the tackle to make his job easier and sometimes take the inside gap without "swimming" to take advantage of one of his best attributes, his strength.  The plus on him is that he has room to grow which is crazy with how good he already is.  I'm still not convinced though he is the right guy at 3.

 

Smith on the other hand is the real deal.  But I tend to stay away from mentioning his name as this forum is very stringent on positional value even in sight of some truly elite prospects. But Smith is everything you want in an ILB who can be one of those players that never comes off the field even in pass packages. 

ballard will take the elite player regardless of position, never taking certain positions high are fan and this forum rules

[BOTT]

27 minutes ago, OLD FAN MAN said:

ballard will take the elite player regardless of position, never taking certain positions high are fan and this forum rules

Still repeating this falsehood I see

[Defjamz26]

On 1/8/2018 at 12:44 PM, NewColtsFan said:

 

Color me NOT impressed with his Big Board.     Any part of it.     Sorry.

 

                

I’m willing to bet it’s because it’s contradictory to what you’re always preaching about premium positions and positional value. Three of the top five players are positions you’ve gone on record S saying are devalued/non-premium positions.

[Valpo2004]

From what I'm hearing Connor Williams is a 3rd round pick that the real NFL scouts are not as impressed with him as the media is.  

[OffensivelyPC]

On 1/8/2018 at 12:43 PM, stitches said:

Same worry I have - his athleticism. He needs to test well. This to me will be the determining factor. IMO he has good enough technique and tape. Now I need to be more comfortable with his athleticism and explosiveness. If he tests similarly to what Bosa did, I will be all in on Chubb. 

I love Chubb but I don't see him as a 1st round guy.  He doesn't show great in the passing game, even before his injury.  But his post-injury athleticism took a big hit.  He's still a great prospect, but on film, I don't see a 3 down back.  Could he work into that roll?  Sure.  And I'd probably rate him higher than Barkley if he never got injured and improved his game through the course of his 4 year college career - particularly in the passing game.  I just don't see it on the tape.

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2 minutes ago, OffensivelyPC said:

I love Chubb but I don't see him as a 1st round guy.  He doesn't show great in the passing game, even before his injury.  But his post-injury athleticism took a big hit.  He's still a great prospect, but on film, I don't see a 3 down back.  Could he work into that roll?  Sure.  And I'd probably rate him higher than Barkley if he never got injured and improved his game through the course of his 4 year college career - particularly in the passing game.  I just don't see it on the tape.

This is about Bradley Chubb, not Nick Chubb. 

[OffensivelyPC]

1 minute ago, stitches said:

This is about Bradley Chubb, not Nick Chubb. 

Oh, woops!  Bradley Chubb is a differen't story.  I haven't watched film on him yet, so I can't really feel confident on any opinion of him yet.  I like what I've heard though.  

[Dark Superman]

Smith at 4? I don't see it.

[NewColtsFan]

18 hours ago, Defjamz26 said:

I’m willing to bet it’s because it’s contradictory to what you’re always preaching about premium positions and positional value. Three of the top five players are positions you’ve gone on record S saying are devalued/non-premium positions.

 

Well...

 

I did say that I object to the whole list.     You missed that.

 

And so I just went through and counted....     I see 22 of the 50 players as either being too high,  or too low on Miller's board.   That's nearly half of the players.    I think Miller is a solid reporter,  but I'm not a fan of his ranking of players.

 

The list...     I'll use numbers,  and I'll let you check them out...

 

1,2,3,4 --- too high

5,6,7         too low

9.10,11,12,14   too high

23,24,25,26,27    too high

29,31,          too high

38,               too low

46,50           too high

 

Please note that the two Stanford kids,  Love and Phillips I have as too high.   I don't see Love as a first rounder based on size.    And I see Phillips as a 2nd or 3rd rounder,  but not a top-50 guy.    He's very good, but not that good.

 

[DaColts85]

4 hours ago, NewColtsFan said:

 

Well...

 

I did say that I object to the whole list.     You missed that.

 

And so I just went through and counted....     I see 22 of the 50 players as either being too high,  or too low on Miller's board.   That's nearly half of the players.    I think Miller is a solid reporter,  but I'm not a fan of his ranking of players.

 

The list...     I'll use numbers,  and I'll let you check them out...

 

1,2,3,4 --- too high

5,6,7         too low

9.10,11,12,14   too high

23,24,25,26,27    too high

29,31,          too high

38,               too low

46,50           too high

 

Please note that the two Stanford kids,  Love and Phillips I have as too high.   I don't see Love as a first rounder based on size.    And I see Phillips as a 2nd or 3rd rounder,  but not a top-50 guy.    He's very good, but not that good.

 

I like to look at quit a few different boards but you of all people should know that many boards will have players ranked top 50 that will not be drafted in that top 50 spot.  Variables will always effect this.  

 

With that being said this is a very early board, so I am not going to tear it apart as of right now it is somewhat fair to me.  Once the process starts Matt will drastically change his board just like a lot of other draft "experts" will.  I use this word lightly haha.

[NewColtsFan]

1 hour ago, DaColts85 said:

I like to look at quit a few different boards but you of all people should know that many boards will have players ranked top 50 that will not be drafted in that top 50 spot.  Variables will always effect this.  

 

With that being said this is a very early board, so I am not going to tear it apart as of right now it is somewhat fair to me.  Once the process starts Matt will drastically change his board just like a lot of other draft "experts" will.  I use this word lightly haha.

 

You make a fair point...   it IS an early board...    that said, he makes such a mess of the top 10 and the top 32, the first round,  that it makes me wonder what this guy knows...   how does he process information..?

 

Are these his views?    The views of scouts and exec he talks to?    Or a combination of both?    

 

I'm curious...

 

 

[Defjamz26]

7 hours ago, NewColtsFan said:

 

Well...

 

I did say that I object to the whole list.     You missed that.

 

And so I just went through and counted....     I see 22 of the 50 players as either being too high,  or too low on Miller's board.   That's nearly half of the players.    I think Miller is a solid reporter,  but I'm not a fan of his ranking of players.

 

The list...     I'll use numbers,  and I'll let you check them out...

 

1,2,3,4 --- too high

5,6,7         too low

9.10,11,12,14   too high

23,24,25,26,27    too high

29,31,          too high

38,               too low

46,50           too high

 

Please note that the two Stanford kids,  Love and Phillips I have as too high.   I don't see Love as a first rounder based on size.    And I see Phillips as a 2nd or 3rd rounder,  but not a top-50 guy.    He's very good, but not that good.

 

46 and 50 I agree

 

1, 2, 3, And 4 are fine. Those are probably universally the 4 best players in the draft and it should make you rethink positional value. Barkley is number one everywhere.  Nelson is a future all pro. Smith has been amazing and so has Fitzpatrick 

 

9,10,11,12,14 I agree 

 

24,25, 26, 27 I agree

 

Remember this isn’t a great draft and it’s not as top heavy as it usually is. A lot of 2nd round prospects will be rated high on big boards.