Colts War Room Draft Strategy - Don't Have Your Heart Set On #15

[BlueShoe]

Unfortunately for Colts fans, no history exists to dissect Chris Ballard. He has never had final, or near final-say, in the War Room. Colts fans and management are still in the honeymoon phase so this is a new venture. Just as the general managers before him, lessons will be learned from his successes and failures. Ballard has willingly pulled the curtain back enough to give everyone a peak into his philosophy.

 

Some of Ballard’s basic concepts to build a football team are parallel with the approach Bill Polian took. Although, I believe he is much more defensive-minded and Bill was offensive-minded. 

 

Build through the draft, and keep you own. That philosophy has won a lot of games in Indianapolis.

 

Chris Ballard brings the added philosophy of building a team in the trenches. Unfortunately, as Bill Polian’s regime aged, he struggled to improve the front lines. It was perhaps his downfall. Ballard will need to fortify the line-of-scrimmage before he can expect any real accomplishments, and I believe Jim Irsay has bought into this. We might draft an offensive lineman in the first round every other year. It is possible, and it is probably the way we should approach the draft. 

 

When the 15th pick is on the clock, there will certainly be talented players available. Ballard, a first-time general manager, will be contemplating his first ever NFL draft pick. Every voice will have spoken, and every table pounded. For the first time in his career, history will write his decision, and stamp his signature next to the outcome.

 

On April 27th Chris Ballard, will choose to either use the seven selections on talent certainly to be available, or trade for additional picks. Let’s evaluate some of those possible prospects and plausible trade partners.

 

Leonard Fournette and Marshon Lattimore are not likely to fall to 15, but would certainly spark the Colts interest if they did. Backs like Fournette are rare and shutdown corners are nearly as valuable.

 

Linebackers Reuben Foster, Haason Reddick, and Derek Barnett, are certain possibilities, and each could also be taken before 15. However, it is not likely all three will be drafted before the Colts have an opportunity to select at least one of them.

 

Chris Ballard has made it very clear about his intentions to focus on the offensive line and front seven. Forrest Lamp could provide the toughness Ballard is looking for.

 

Any serious discussion would not be complete without mentioning running backs Dalvin Cook and Christian McCaffrey who could be taken in the middle or may fall into the end of the first round. 

 

Plausible trade partners include Tampa Bay, Denver, Detroit, Miami, New York Giants, Oakland (Vegas), Seattle, Kansas City, Dallas, Green Bay, and Pittsburgh. Moving down further than that might be too far, and it would not be wise to leave the first round as doing so removes the fifth-year option.

 

Possible Compensation for the 15th pick would be:

 

Bucs - 19, 84, 237

Broncos - 20, 82, 203

Lions - 21, 85, 128

Dolphins - 22, 97, 166

Giants - 23, 87, 140

Raiders - 24, 88, 130

Seahawks - 26, 58, 210

Chiefs - 27, 59, 132

Cowboys - 28, 60, 133

Packers - 29, 61, 134

Steelers - 30, 62, 94

 

If Ballard were to trade down into the bottom of the first round he would pick up a few extra picks and still get a good football player. Let’s hypothetically say he makes a trade with his old team Kansas City for the 27th pick. Players he could possibly target at #27 are Forrest Lamp, Dalvin Cook, Christian McCaffrey, T.J. Watt, Jarrad Davis, and Gareon Conley. At least one of those players will still be on the board at number 27.

 

I believe if Chris Ballard wants to have his first album become a hit then he needs to trade back in this draft. If he can find a suitor who is willing to give fair compensation, then moving back might allow him more opportunity to paint his first Picasso.

 

In a mock simulation, I traded the 15th pick to Seattle for the 26th, a second (58) and a sixth (210). Forrest Lamp, Jarrad Davis, and Gareon Conley were all available at #26.

 

San Francisco later offered #66, #146, and #161 for #58, and I accepted.

 

Here is how the mock went:

 

Rd 1   Pk  26 - Forrest Lamp (G) Western Kentucky

Rd 2   Pk  46 - T.J. Watt (OLB 3/4) Wisconsin

Rd 3   Pk  66 - Adoree' Jackson (CB) Southern California

Rd 3   Pk  80 - Cooper Kupp (WR) Eastern Washington

Rd 4   Pk 122 - D'Onta Foreman (RB) Texas

Rd 4   Pk 137 - George Kittle (TE) Iowa

Rd 4   Pk 144 - Vince Biegel (OLB 3/4) Wisconsin

Rd 5   Pk 146 - Shaquill Griffin (CB) UCF

Rd 5   Pk 158 - Stevie Tu'kolovatu (NT) Southern California

Rd 5   Pk 161 - Damontae Kazee (CB) San Diego State

Rd 6   Pk 210 - Tarik Cohen (RB) North Carolina A&T

 

I could not find a safety within the right reach, but I am not convinced we need to draft a safety anyway.

 

We immediately upgraded our pass rush by grabbing T.J. Watt in the second and Vince Biegel in the fourth.

 

Adoree Jacskson would start at LCB, and Kazee would be an ideal fit for the slot against 11 personnel. Griffin would be groomed to take Vontae’s spot if we could not find a reasonable number to resign him.

 

D'Onta Foreman and Tarik Cohen are the answers at running back that we have been desperately looking for.

 

Cooper Kupp catches everything thrown his way and will immediately challenge both Aiken and Dorset for playing time.

 

George Kittle is an excellent complement to Jack Doyle, and instantly gets playing time.

 

Stevie Tu'kolovatu makes David Parry expendable.

 

The idea is to move back a few times, and fix all the holes on the team. Don't just try to improve the needs, but create competition even where there are strengths. It doesn't have to be these exact trades or exact players or positions. We want youth, and to build through the draft. This would be a very good start.

 

I am not saying we will trade back, but I believe we will jump any opportunity that makes sense. 

[Clem-Dog]

Interesting scenario to say the least.  I could live with the majority of these picks although  I question Kupp in the third #80.  I'd rather select another defensive prospect there.

 

I also like the Foreman pick especially in the 4th #122.  We'd be extremely fortunate. 

[rock8591]

No reason for WR in the 3rd. Or even in the 7th for that matter...

[CantBeStopped]

No way cook lasts til late 1st and I'd be livid if we took christian

[BlueShoe]

10 minutes ago, rock8591 said:

No reason for WR in the 3rd. Or even in the 7th for that matter...

 

That is the reason for grabbing the extra picks.

 

I believe that we cannot keep chasing "this year" and become successful. We have to get ahead of it, and be willing to allow anyone (not named Luck) to hit the open market. If the money doesn't make sense then we need players on the roster who can step up. The only way we can do that is to get out of the mindset of picking players for the now. 

 

We need to create competition anywhere we can. 

[NewColtsFan]

1 hour ago, BlueShoe said:

Unfortunately for Colts fans, no history exists to dissect Chris Ballard. He has never had final, or near final-say, in the War Room. Colts fans and management are still in the honeymoon phase so this is a new venture. Just as the general managers before him, lessons will be learned from his successes and failures. Ballard has willingly pulled the curtain back enough to give everyone a peak into his philosophy.

 

Some of Ballard’s basic concepts to build a football team are parallel with the approach Bill Polian took. Although, I believe he is much more defensive-minded and Bill was offensive-minded. 

 

Build through the draft, and keep you own. That philosophy has won a lot of games in Indianapolis.

 

Chris Ballard brings the added philosophy of building a team in the trenches. Unfortunately, as Bill Polian’s regime aged, he struggled to improve the front lines. It was perhaps his downfall. Ballard will need to fortify the line-of-scrimmage before he can expect any real accomplishments, and I believe Jim Irsay has bought into this. We might draft an offensive lineman in the first round every other year. It is possible, and it is probably the way we should approach the draft. 

 

When the 15th pick is on the clock, there will certainly be talented players available. Ballard, a first-time general manager, will be contemplating his first ever NFL draft pick. Every voice will have spoken, and every table pounded. For the first time in his career, history will write his decision, and stamp his signature next to the outcome.

 

On April 27th Chris Ballard, will choose to either use the seven selections on talent certainly to be available, or trade for additional picks. Let’s evaluate some of those possible prospects and plausible trade partners.

 

Leonard Fournette and Marshon Lattimore are not likely to fall to 15, but would certainly spark the Colts interest if they did. Backs like Fournette are rare and shutdown corners are nearly as valuable.

 

Linebackers Reuben Foster, Haason Reddick, and Derek Barnett, are certain possibilities, and each could also be taken before 15. However, it is not likely all three will be drafted before the Colts have an opportunity to select at least one of them.

 

Chris Ballard has made it very clear about his intentions to focus on the offensive line and front seven. Forrest Lamp could provide the toughness Ballard is looking for.

 

Any serious discussion would not be complete without mentioning running backs Dalvin Cook and Christian McCaffrey who could be taken in the middle or may fall into the end of the first round. 

 

Plausible trade partners include Tampa Bay, Denver, Detroit, Miami, New York Giants, Oakland (Vegas), Seattle, Kansas City, Dallas, Green Bay, and Pittsburgh. Moving down further than that might be too far, and it would not be wise to leave the first round as doing so removes the fifth-year option.

 

Possible Compensation for the 15th pick would be:

 

Bucs - 19, 84, 237

Broncos - 20, 82, 203

Lions - 21, 85, 128

Dolphins - 22, 97, 166

Giants - 23, 87, 140

Raiders - 24, 88, 130

Seahawks - 26, 58, 210

Chiefs - 27, 59, 132

Cowboys - 28, 60, 133

Packers - 29, 61, 134

Steelers - 30, 62, 94

 

If Ballard were to trade down into the bottom of the first round he would pick up a few extra picks and still get a good football player. Let’s hypothetically say he makes a trade with his old team Kansas City for the 27th pick. Players he could possibly target at #27 are Forrest Lamp, Dalvin Cook, Christian McCaffrey, T.J. Watt, Jarrad Davis, and Gareon Conley. At least one of those players will still be on the board at number 27.

 

I believe if Chris Ballard wants to have his first album become a hit then he needs to trade back in this draft. If he can find a suitor who is willing to give fair compensation, then moving back might allow him more opportunity to paint his first Picasso.

 

In a mock simulation, I traded the 15th pick to Seattle for the 26th, a second (58) and a sixth (210). Forrest Lamp, Jarrad Davis, and Gareon Conley were all available at #26.

 

San Francisco later offered #66, #146, and #161 for #58, and I accepted.

 

Here is how the mock went:

 

Rd 1   Pk  26 - Forrest Lamp (G) Western Kentucky

Rd 2   Pk  46 - T.J. Watt (OLB 3/4) Wisconsin

Rd 3   Pk  66 - Adoree' Jackson (CB) Southern California

Rd 3   Pk  80 - Cooper Kupp (WR) Eastern Washington

Rd 4   Pk 122 - D'Onta Foreman (RB) Texas

Rd 4   Pk 137 - George Kittle (TE) Iowa

Rd 4   Pk 144 - Vince Biegel (OLB 3/4) Wisconsin

Rd 5   Pk 146 - Shaquill Griffin (CB) UCF

Rd 5   Pk 158 - Stevie Tu'kolovatu (NT) Southern California

Rd 5   Pk 161 - Damontae Kazee (CB) San Diego State

Rd 6   Pk 210 - Tarik Cohen (RB) North Carolina A&T

 

I could not find a safety within the right reach, but I am not convinced we need to draft a safety anyway.

 

We immediately upgraded our pass rush by grabbing T.J. Watt in the second and Vince Biegel in the fourth.

 

Adoree Jacskson would start at LCB, and Kazee would be an ideal fit for the slot against 11 personnel. Griffin would be groomed to take Vontae’s spot if we could not find a reasonable number to resign him.

 

D'Onta Foreman and Tarik Cohen are the answers at running back that we have been desperately looking for.

 

Cooper Kupp catches everything thrown his way and will immediately challenge both Aiken and Dorset for playing time.

 

George Kittle is an excellent complement to Jack Doyle, and instantly gets playing time.

 

Stevie Tu'kolovatu makes David Parry expendable.

 

The idea is to move back a few times, and fix all the holes on the team. Don't just try to improve the needs, but create competition even where there are strengths. It doesn't have to be these exact trades or exact players or positions. We want youth, and to build through the draft. This would be a very good start.

 

I am not saying we will trade back, but I believe we will jump any opportunity that makes sense. 

 

You were doing just find for most of this post.     I didn't agree with all of it,   but certainly more than half.

 

And then you had to go and Jump the Shark.....

 

Why in the world would you suddenly mix in a computer simulated mock draft to show what might be possible?

 

Have you not seen the countless posts that explain that while the simulations are fun and even a little addictive,  the don't resemble the real world?

 

Also....

 

In a draft this loaded,  the number of teams that are going to be willing to pay full price (your many examples of a 1st, 2nd and 3rd round picks)  are going to be very few indeed.     Most teams will not pay the full freight to make this kind of deal.    Why?   Because in a draft this deep,  EVERYONE wants to hold on to their picks.   Everyone wants a discount in a draft like this.      Making a "1, 2, and 3" trade is one of the hardest things to do.

 

Will Ballard want to trade back?     Sure.     He might want to trade back in each of the first 3 rounds.   But he also might struggle to get anything more than a 4 in each trade.     He'll either have to be lucky get more,  or, he'll have to trade back further than he'd like.

 

This stuff is really hard to pull off.....    especially in a draft like this one....

 

[VaAllDay757]

They just need to keep the 15th pick and choose the best defensive player for the team just keep it simple

[Coltfreak]

1 hour ago, BlueShoe said:

Unfortunately for Colts fans, no history exists to dissect Chris Ballard. He has never had final, or near final-say, in the War Room. Colts fans and management are still in the honeymoon phase so this is a new venture. Just as the general managers before him, lessons will be learned from his successes and failures. Ballard has willingly pulled the curtain back enough to give everyone a peak into his philosophy.

 

Some of Ballard’s basic concepts to build a football team are parallel with the approach Bill Polian took. Although, I believe he is much more defensive-minded and Bill was offensive-minded. 

 

Build through the draft, and keep you own. That philosophy has won a lot of games in Indianapolis.

 

Chris Ballard brings the added philosophy of building a team in the trenches. Unfortunately, as Bill Polian’s regime aged, he struggled to improve the front lines. It was perhaps his downfall. Ballard will need to fortify the line-of-scrimmage before he can expect any real accomplishments, and I believe Jim Irsay has bought into this. We might draft an offensive lineman in the first round every other year. It is possible, and it is probably the way we should approach the draft. 

 

When the 15th pick is on the clock, there will certainly be talented players available. Ballard, a first-time general manager, will be contemplating his first ever NFL draft pick. Every voice will have spoken, and every table pounded. For the first time in his career, history will write his decision, and stamp his signature next to the outcome.

 

On April 27th Chris Ballard, will choose to either use the seven selections on talent certainly to be available, or trade for additional picks. Let’s evaluate some of those possible prospects and plausible trade partners.

 

Leonard Fournette and Marshon Lattimore are not likely to fall to 15, but would certainly spark the Colts interest if they did. Backs like Fournette are rare and shutdown corners are nearly as valuable.

 

Linebackers Reuben Foster, Haason Reddick, and Derek Barnett, are certain possibilities, and each could also be taken before 15. However, it is not likely all three will be drafted before the Colts have an opportunity to select at least one of them.

 

Chris Ballard has made it very clear about his intentions to focus on the offensive line and front seven. Forrest Lamp could provide the toughness Ballard is looking for.

 

Any serious discussion would not be complete without mentioning running backs Dalvin Cook and Christian McCaffrey who could be taken in the middle or may fall into the end of the first round. 

 

Plausible trade partners include Tampa Bay, Denver, Detroit, Miami, New York Giants, Oakland (Vegas), Seattle, Kansas City, Dallas, Green Bay, and Pittsburgh. Moving down further than that might be too far, and it would not be wise to leave the first round as doing so removes the fifth-year option.

 

Possible Compensation for the 15th pick would be:

 

Bucs - 19, 84, 237

Broncos - 20, 82, 203

Lions - 21, 85, 128

Dolphins - 22, 97, 166

Giants - 23, 87, 140

Raiders - 24, 88, 130

Seahawks - 26, 58, 210

Chiefs - 27, 59, 132

Cowboys - 28, 60, 133

Packers - 29, 61, 134

Steelers - 30, 62, 94

 

If Ballard were to trade down into the bottom of the first round he would pick up a few extra picks and still get a good football player. Let’s hypothetically say he makes a trade with his old team Kansas City for the 27th pick. Players he could possibly target at #27 are Forrest Lamp, Dalvin Cook, Christian McCaffrey, T.J. Watt, Jarrad Davis, and Gareon Conley. At least one of those players will still be on the board at number 27.

 

I believe if Chris Ballard wants to have his first album become a hit then he needs to trade back in this draft. If he can find a suitor who is willing to give fair compensation, then moving back might allow him more opportunity to paint his first Picasso.

 

In a mock simulation, I traded the 15th pick to Seattle for the 26th, a second (58) and a sixth (210). Forrest Lamp, Jarrad Davis, and Gareon Conley were all available at #26.

 

San Francisco later offered #66, #146, and #161 for #58, and I accepted.

 

Here is how the mock went:

 

Rd 1   Pk  26 - Forrest Lamp (G) Western Kentucky

Rd 2   Pk  46 - T.J. Watt (OLB 3/4) Wisconsin

Rd 3   Pk  66 - Adoree' Jackson (CB) Southern California

Rd 3   Pk  80 - Cooper Kupp (WR) Eastern Washington

Rd 4   Pk 122 - D'Onta Foreman (RB) Texas

Rd 4   Pk 137 - George Kittle (TE) Iowa

Rd 4   Pk 144 - Vince Biegel (OLB 3/4) Wisconsin

Rd 5   Pk 146 - Shaquill Griffin (CB) UCF

Rd 5   Pk 158 - Stevie Tu'kolovatu (NT) Southern California

Rd 5   Pk 161 - Damontae Kazee (CB) San Diego State

Rd 6   Pk 210 - Tarik Cohen (RB) North Carolina A&T

 

I could not find a safety within the right reach, but I am not convinced we need to draft a safety anyway.

 

We immediately upgraded our pass rush by grabbing T.J. Watt in the second and Vince Biegel in the fourth.

 

Adoree Jacskson would start at LCB, and Kazee would be an ideal fit for the slot against 11 personnel. Griffin would be groomed to take Vontae’s spot if we could not find a reasonable number to resign him.

 

D'Onta Foreman and Tarik Cohen are the answers at running back that we have been desperately looking for.

 

Cooper Kupp catches everything thrown his way and will immediately challenge both Aiken and Dorset for playing time.

 

George Kittle is an excellent complement to Jack Doyle, and instantly gets playing time.

 

Stevie Tu'kolovatu makes David Parry expendable.

 

The idea is to move back a few times, and fix all the holes on the team. Don't just try to improve the needs, but create competition even where there are strengths. It doesn't have to be these exact trades or exact players or positions. We want youth, and to build through the draft. This would be a very good start.

 

I am not saying we will trade back, but I believe we will jump any opportunity that makes sense. 

Good info on the possible trade backs and values.   And I truly believe it will happen

[BlueShoe]

16 minutes ago, NewColtsFan said:

 

You were doing just find for most of this post.     I didn't agree with all of it,   but certainly more than half.

 

And then you had to go and Jump the Shark.....

 

Why in the world would you suddenly mix in a computer simulated mock draft to show what might be possible?

 

Have you not seen the countless posts that explain that while the simulations are fun and even a little addictive,  the don't resemble the real world?

 

Also....

 

In a draft this loaded,  the number of teams that are going to be willing to pay full price (your many examples of a 1st, 2nd and 3rd round picks)  are going to be very few indeed.     Most teams will not pay the full freight to make this kind of deal.    Why?   Because in a draft this deep,  EVERYONE wants to hold on to their picks.   Everyone wants a discount in a draft like this.      Making a "1, 2, and 3" trade is one of the hardest things to do.

 

Will Ballard want to trade back?     Sure.     He might want to trade back in each of the first 3 rounds.   But he also might struggle to get anything more than a 4 in each trade.     He'll either have to be lucky get more,  or, he'll have to trade back further than he'd like.

 

This stuff is really hard to pull off.....    especially in a draft like this one....

 

 

I am in a live Mock right now and just traded back with Denver (With a Live GM).

 

Picked up Forrest Lamp at #20, and also added a 3rd and a 6th. 

 

We are sitting in a pretty spot. Players will fall to us and we are in the zone where teams will want to move up. 

[BlueShoe]

43 minutes ago, CantBeStopped said:

No way cook lasts til late 1st and I'd be livid if we took christian

 

In a live mock right now and Cook just went to KC at #27.

 

#33 is on the clock and Christian is still on the board.

[BlueShoe]

@Coltfreak

 

I tested the waters in this latest mock draft, and it is indicative of how things could really turn out if we are not careful. 

 

McCaffrey was still on the board at #46 so I took him, but I lost out on the Edge Rushers. They were mostly all gone before I could pick again. 

 

Then the board started falling funny so I had to adjust to the availability. Ended up with two safety's, but I really like both of them. 

 

If we don't get an Edge Rusher by the second round then it might be tough pickings. 

 

1	20	Lamp, Forrest	G
2	46	McCaffrey, Christian	RB
3	80	Jones, Sidney	CB
3	82	Kittle, George	TE
4	122	Wilson, Howard	CB
4	137	Tu'kolovatu, Stevie	NT
4	144	Jenkins, Rayshawn	FS
5	158	Johnson, Jadar	SS
6	203	Muhammad, Al-Quadin	OLB 3/4

[will426]

Trading back is the best option 

[rockywoj]

3 hours ago, BlueShoe said:

... Unfortunately, as Bill Polian’s regime aged, he struggled to improve the front lines. It was perhaps his downfall. ...

I think it absolutely was his downfall.   He waited 3 years too long to try and rebuild the OL and he also failed to upgrade the LBs and DBs.

 

Of course, the crazy timing of Manning missing the year, resulting in having the pick to get Luck, also factored in.

 

The strange thing is, and nobody seems to ever mention this, back in, I believe it was, the early summer of 2010, Irsay put out a cryptic tweet about HUGE changes coming in the next 18 months.  I remember thinking, what the heck does THAT mean!?  Then, as fate would have it, Manning missed the entire 2011 season and Polian and Caldwell were fired!  Like what the heck gives with that Irsay tweet that seems to have foretold the drastic changes we witnessed?

[BlueShoe]

1 minute ago, rockywoj said:

I think it absolutely was his downfall.   He waited 3 years too long to try and rebuild the OL and he also failed to upgrade the LBs and DBs.

 

Of course, the crazy timing of Manning missing the year, resulting in having the pick to get Luck, also factored in.

 

The strange thing is, an nobody seems to ever mention this, back in, I believe it was, the early summer of 2010, Irsay put out a cryptic tweet about HUGE changes coming in the next 18 months.  I remember thinking, what the heck does THAT mean!?  Then, as fate would have it, Manning missed the entire 2011 season and Polian and Caldwell were fired!  Like what the heck gives with that Irsay tweet that seems to have foretold the drastic changes we witnessed?

 

I still do not know what that tweet was about. As far as I know, he never explained it either. 

 

I thought he sent that tweet after we drafted Luck though.

[rockywoj]

10 minutes ago, BlueShoe said:

 

I still do not know what that tweet was about. As far as I know, he never explained it either. 

 

I thought he sent that tweet after we drafted Luck though.

Nope, that tweet was definitely well before all the upheaval, and before Manning's lost year.  I remember very vividly wondering what he meant and being shocked that the tweet seemed to evade the forum's notice.

 

One time, after the 2011 season, I tried to peruse Irsay's twitter to drudge that tweet up, but could not subsequently find it.

 

It does make you go, hmmmmm, though.  Perhaps THIS matter of the cryptic tweet is deserving of a thread of it's own, where the community might conjure up that lost tweet and figure out just what, or how, Irsay meant / or knew of all the changes to come in 2012.

[BlueShoe]

Just now, rockywoj said:

Nope, that tweet was definitely well before all the upheaval, and before Manning's lost year.  I remember very vividly wondering what he meant and being shocked that the tweet seemed to evade the forum's notice.

 

I have thought about that tweet on several occasions. Irsay never did explain himself though. 

[rockywoj]

4 minutes ago, BlueShoe said:

 

I have thought about that tweet on several occasions. Irsay never did explain himself though. 

I am glad I am not the only one that saw it, the crazy tweet about drastic, exciting changes to come in the next 18 months!

 

And no, he never did, but more disturbingly, where the heck was the Indy media in pursuing the tweet's meaning.  Media totally asleep at the switch!

[BlueShoe]

Just now, rockywoj said:

I am glad I am not the only one that saw it, the crazy tweet about drastic, exciting changes to come in the next 18 months!

 

I remember we were all trying to figure it out on this board. some people even thought he was selling the team or something. 

 

I was bizarre and I wish someone would have held Irsay's feet to the fire on that one. 

[rockywoj]

Just now, BlueShoe said:

 

I remember we were all trying to figure it out on this board. some people even thought he was selling the team or something. 

 

I was bizarre and I wish someone would have held Irsay's feet to the fire on that one. 

Hmmm, I missed seeing that forum effort.   I recall seeing the tweet, but then not seeing anybody post about it.

[Steamboat_Shaun]

52 minutes ago, BlueShoe said:

 

I still do not know what that tweet was about. As far as I know, he never explained it either. 

 

I thought he sent that tweet after we drafted Luck though.

 

56 minutes ago, rockywoj said:

The strange thing is, and nobody seems to ever mention this, back in, I believe it was, the early summer of 2010, Irsay put out a cryptic tweet about HUGE changes coming in the next 18 months. 

 

His tweets in 2010 were kind of all over the place.

 

[gacoop1]

Can we all get along?

[BlueShoe]

2 hours ago, rockywoj said:

Hmmm, I missed seeing that forum effort.   I recall seeing the tweet, but then not seeing anybody post about it.

 

Now that I think about it, that cryptic tweet was before we fired Polian. 

 

That was a dark time on this board too. Emotions were high, people were constantly fighting, and of course everyone had all the answers. I felt bad for the moderators, because they were busy, and they took a beating. If I were a moderator and we went 2-12 then I would quit. LOL. Life is too short for all that nonsense. 

 

Things were so tense here that anything a person said was easily taken out of context, and a fight would irrupt. It was around that time I started to only check in during big announcements. A tactic I still deploy at times. 

 

Maybe be you should start a new thread about that tweet. Someone might have some answers. 

[theanarchist]

4 hours ago, rockywoj said:

I think it absolutely was his downfall.   He waited 3 years too long to try and rebuild the OL and he also failed to upgrade the LBs and DBs.

 

Of course, the crazy timing of Manning missing the year, resulting in having the pick to get Luck, also factored in.

 

The strange thing is, and nobody seems to ever mention this, back in, I believe it was, the early summer of 2010, Irsay put out a cryptic tweet about HUGE changes coming in the next 18 months.  I remember thinking, what the heck does THAT mean!?  Then, as fate would have it, Manning missed the entire 2011 season and Polian and Caldwell were fired!  Like what the heck gives with that Irsay tweet that seems to have foretold the drastic changes we witnessed?

The main thing that killed Bill was when Tarik Glenn unexpectedly retired and he traded a future #1 pick to draft Tony Ugoh in the 2nd round and Ugoh never panned out. It was a killer. Granted, the talent on the line was beginning to thin by then but this was the lynch pin that gave way.

[BlueShoe]

6 hours ago, theanarchist said:

The main thing that killed Bill was when Tarik Glenn unexpectedly retired and he traded a future #1 pick to draft Tony Ugoh in the 2nd round and Ugoh never panned out. It was a killer. Granted, the talent on the line was beginning to thin by then but this was the lynch pin that gave way.

 

Glenn's retirement certainly caught Bill by surprise, and his inability to answer was the beginning of the end.

 

Replacing Glenn was no easy task. In my mind, he was the best Left Tackle to ever play for the Colts.

 

But there were options, and Bill missed them. At times he ignored the offensive line, and other times he struggled in the draft to bring fresh new talent in. 

 

Losing Howard Mudd hurt Indy in a very bad way. We all knew it then, but in retrospect it is even more obvious just how important Howard was to finding and developing offensive line talent. 

[jvan1973]

14 hours ago, BlueShoe said:

 

I am in a live Mock right now and just traded back with Denver (With a Live GM).

 

Picked up Forrest Lamp at #20, and also added a 3rd and a 6th. 

 

We are sitting in a pretty spot. Players will fall to us and we are in the zone where teams will want to move up. 

Even with "live gms" it is in no way realistic of how the draft will work out.  Being a faux gm and making trades that effect the future of your faux team isn't on par with a gm who's employment depends on it

[BlueShoe]

Just now, jvan1973 said:

Even with "live gms" it is in no way realistic of how the draft will work out.  Being a faux gm and making trades that effect the future of your faux team isn't on par with a gm who's employment depends on it

 

Absolutely. Our job security is certainly not tied to the success and failure.

 

I have heard NFL GM's talk about doing daily mock drafts, and how important they are. They need to get a good baseline for the different directions the draft can flow. 

 

While fans have limited information and no official decision making ability, the process of mocking the draft is very similar to what NFL front offices do every day at this time of year. 

[jvan1973]

1 minute ago, BlueShoe said:

 

Absolutely. Our job security is certainly not tied to the success and failure.

 

I have heard NFL GM's talk about doing daily mock drafts, and how important they are. They need to get a good baseline for the different directions the draft can flow. 

 

While fans have limited information and no official decision making ability, the process of mocking the draft is very similar to what NFL front offices do every day at this time of year. 

Where have you heard GMs are doing daily mock drafts?

[jet1968]

Obviously a lot of thought was put into this. I don't understand how you determined what should be compensated picks

[BlueShoe]

Just now, jvan1973 said:

Where have you heard GMs are doing daily mock drafts?

 

I have heard a few GMs talk about it over the years. The last time was Ryan Grigson a few years back. 

 

Before that Michael Lombardi explained the process on NFL Network about five years ago.

 

It really happens. What we do as fans to mock the draft is going on in NFL front offices right now. Only the people involved with it make "real" decisions during the draft, and they have a lot of more resources. I feel like over the past decade, the fan base for mock drafts is a lot closer than ever before though.

[OffensivelyPC]

1 minute ago, jvan1973 said:

Where have you heard GMs are doing daily mock drafts?

They do mocks.  I don't know if they are daily, but I know they do them.  I remember when we drafted Castonzo, there was an article with a couple of soundbites about the pick.  One of the quotes was from the someone high up in the organization where he said the Colts had Castanzo rated high enough that in all the mocks they did internally, they never envisioned a scenario with Castonzo made it to the Colts.

[Jason_]

13 hours ago, BlueShoe said:

@Coltfreak

 

I tested the waters in this latest mock draft, and it is indicative of how things could really turn out if we are not careful. 

 

ok but let's be real..you could run 1000 mock drafts and each one of them would be indicative of how things could really turn out

[BlueShoe]

1 minute ago, jet1968 said:

Obviously a lot of thought was put into this. I don't understand how you determined what should be compensated picks

 

A value Chart that Jimmy Johnson gave the fans several years ago. 

 

http://www.ourlads.com/nfldraftvalue/

[BlueShoe]

4 minutes ago, Jason_S said:

 

ok but let's be real..you could run 1000 mock drafts and each one of them would be indicative of how things could really turn out

 

Sorry. I may not have been clear.

 

In just about every (recent) mock I have done, one theme keeps repeating. All of the second, third, and fourth round edge rushers keep disappearing in the second and early-third. It is possible that the model is telling us we need to take an edge rusher in the first couple of rounds. 

 

That said, none of it is a perfect science. 

[Jason_]

Just now, BlueShoe said:

 

Sorry. I may not have been clear.

 

I just about every mock I have done, one theme keeps repeating. All of the second, third, and fourth round edge rushers keep disappearing in the second and early-third. It is possible that the model is telling us we need to take an edge rusher in the first couple of rounds. 

 

That said, none of it is a perfect science. 

 

but, is that really any different from every other year?  edge rushers and QBs almost always get overdrafted.

[Yoshinator]

1 minute ago, BlueShoe said:

 

Sorry. I may not have been clear.

 

In just about every (recent) mock I have done, one theme keeps repeating. All of the second, third, and fourth round edge rushers keep disappearing in the second and early-third. It is possible that the model is telling us we need to take an edge rusher in the first couple of rounds. 

 

That said, none of it is a perfect science. 

Are you doing draftwired with real people?

[BlueShoe]

Just now, Jared Cisneros said:

Are you doing draftwired with real people?

 

Yes.

[Yoshinator]

3 minutes ago, BlueShoe said:

 

Yes.

I'm not paying for it and am a guest, but if you are doing that many mocks and getting the same results, then there's definitely a theme. Usually a large sample size equals a bigger picture of what will happen. The exception is if someone is hurt or has character concerns and the public doesn't know about it, then there may be a drop at a position or a rise at another that could shake things up.

[BlueShoe]

5 minutes ago, Jason_S said:

 

but, is that really any different from every other year?  edge rushers and QBs almost always get overdrafted.

 

I guess the difference is, the belief there is so much more edge rush talent in this draft. I think the depth of talent artificially creates an idea that edge rushers can be found deep in the draft. What I am noticing is how they are getting drafted much earlier than expected, and the window to draft one is smaller than a person might think. 

 

It is not scientific, but I think there is a reason to believe these mid-round edge rushers will be gone very early. 

[BlueShoe]

4 minutes ago, Jared Cisneros said:

I'm not paying for it and am a guest, but if you are doing that many mocks and getting the same results, then there's definitely a theme. Usually a large sample size equals a bigger picture of what will happen. The exception is if someone is hurt or has character concerns and the public doesn't know about it, then there may be a drop at a position or a rise at another that could shake things up.

 

You can do simulations and/or sign up for LIVE mocks. I think right now they schedule live drafts once a day.

[Yoshinator]

1 minute ago, BlueShoe said:

 

You can do simulations and/or sign up for LIVE mocks. I think right now they do one of those a day. 

Can I do it for free? If so, I would love too!