Matt Miller: The love is real for Ryan Kelly in Indianapolis

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http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2634911-scouting-notebook-matt-millers-final-team-by-team-reports-jared-goff-qa

 

Quote

Indianapolis Colts: The love for Alabama center Ryan Kelly is real, according to decision-makers I've talked to in Indianapolis. Sources on the coaching staff tell me they're not set on drafting an offensive tackle at any point in this draft and instead expect to go center and edge-rusher in some order with the first two picks.

 

He also mocks Kelly to the Colts in his latest mock draft.

[21isSuperman]

Shows you how much all these analysts know, continually giving the Colts a tackle in the first round of their mocks.

[SP_21]

I understand why they'd want Kelly but I believe there will be much better players available at 18. This is too much of a reach for me. 

[wig]

3 minutes ago, 21isSuperman said:

Shows you how much all these analysts know, continually giving the Colts a tackle in the first round of their mocks.

 

Nobody is right or wrong yet.  You're just choosing to believe the one you'd prefer at this point.

[BProland85]

I'd still love to see a trade down and get a dominant DL player like Butler or Billings. Them round 2 get Noah Spence who I think will be there. Then get Austin Blythe in the 7th or Jack Allen in the 4th. 

[Manning1887]

I was watching the NFL channel last night and they were hyping up Ryan Kelly big time! They were talking about the Redskins at #21, but mentioned generally teams in the 15-20 range being interested in him as well. 

[jskinnz]

10 minutes ago, 21isSuperman said:

Shows you how much all these analysts know, continually giving the Colts a tackle in the first round of their mocks.

 

I would believe nothing you hear right now.  These very well could be intentional leaks from the team.

[bertjones7]

Another report has the lions seriously looking at Kelly and decker. 

[21isSuperman]

14 minutes ago, jskinnz said:

 

I would believe nothing you hear right now.  These very well could be intentional leaks from the team.

That's true.  I'm blissfully ignorant of the extent of smoke screens and intentional leaks going on right now

[PeterBowman]

I'd be very happy with Kelly at 18. But if he's gone before then, there's still A LOT of talent that'll still be available for the Colts to pick.

[MPStack]

I mocked Kelly as the Colts pick at 18 in my final mocker, which isn`t saying much. However, I really feel he`s a can`t miss plug and play prospect. Grigson has to hit on this pick and IMO there are too many questions about each Edge prospect mentioned as first round possibilities. 

[MSColtsFan]

When the owner and GM say the same thing, I'm not sure it's much of a smoke screen.  Irsay flat out said Center and some G/T combo were needed.  If it's going to be Kelly over the edge rusher at 18, I just hope edge talent falls to 48, because I don't like a Kelly/Calhoun combo (for example) as much as I like a Floyd/Dodd/Spence and Martin combo (for example).   It's the edge rusher second part of that 'decision makers tell me' that scares me.  I'm not sure one worth 48 will be there. 

[Dustin]

Oh no

[Defjamz26]

I've talked about Kelly at 18 in length. But I try to keep an open mind so here's my take on it.

 

I've said numerous times that I'm not a fan of taking him at 18. However IF the Colts take him at 18 I'm assuming that Ragland is off the board because he makes a lot of sense there. Second, I would hope they would then turn around and get Shilique Calhoun round 2 then since he's likely to be BPA and the best edge rusher there.

 

I'm not an advocate for the pick, but those are the conditions that must be met for me to be okay with the pick. He also shouldn't pass on Lawson for Kelly either. If Kelly is the pick then I'm assuming Lawson and Ragland are gone and they didn't want to risk Spence.

 

I would hope it would be a BPA pick and Grigson didn't cave into media and FO pressure and decided to draft for need. TBH, his BPA approach only failed him once. In 2013 we could say he should've went with Rhodes or Ogletree, but that strategy hasn't really failed him. You could argue maybe last year he could've traded down or took Brown but Dorsett isn't a bust.

 

If Kelly is really BPA and the next guy isn't close like he said with Dorsett, then by all means take him. But if it's down to let's say Ragland and Kelly and Kelly is a few spots down, I hope he doesn't go with need and choose Kelly. I like the center depth in this draft and think we can get a starter later.

[krunk]

I will see on Thursday

[southwest1]

23 minutes ago, Dustin said:

Oh no

I take it that you're not beaming with confidence with the possibility of a Ryan Kelly selection on Thursday? 

 

When Dustin or krunk have doubts that makes me nervous. Just sayin'...

[LockeDown]

The only way I don't like a Kelly pick is if he turns out to be average.  I hope he isn't being overhyped.   If he's as good as they say, then we will be glad years from now he's Luck's center.

[Carlos Danger]

Martin in the 2nd, if he's there, is a better value, in my eyes. 

 

BPA in the first is almost assuredly going to be a DL, imo, regardless of need.

[jskinnz]

1 minute ago, LockeDown said:

The only way I don't like a Kelly pick is if he turns out to be average.  I hope he isn't being overhyped.   If he's as good as they say, then we will be glad years from now he's Luck's center.

 

What?  Couldn't this be said about any draft pick ever?

 

[DougDew]

 "Sources on the coaching staff tell me they're not set on drafting an offensive tackle at any point in this draft and instead expect to go center and edge-rusher in some order with the first two picks".

 

I guess the writer feels that sources in this case far outweigh common sense.  He writes this as if it is a surprise that the Colts would take an interior lineman over a Tackle.

 

If sources don't indicate Tackle, and common sense doesn't indicate Tackle, then on what basis are media types speculating that the Colts will take a Tackle?   Apparently, it isn't sense or sources.

[Defjamz26]

5 minutes ago, jskinnz said:

 

What?  Couldn't this be said about any draft pick ever?

 

Yes. But I think his point was that the QB is top priority. If you can find a center who can make all the line calls and keep your QB clean then its justifiable to take a center high. An elite center like that is more valuable than a top CB, DT, WR,etc...

[PeterBowman]

3 minutes ago, DougDew said:

 "Sources on the coaching staff tell me they're not set on drafting an offensive tackle at any point in this draft and instead expect to go center and edge-rusher in some order with the first two picks".

 

I guess the writer feels that sources in this case far outweigh common sense.  He writes this as if it is a surprise that the Colts would take an interior lineman over a Tackle.

 

If sources don't indicate Tackle, and common sense doesn't indicate Tackle, then on what basis are media types speculating that the Colts will take a Tackle?   Apparently, it isn't sense or sources.

it won't fit the constant narrative of the "experts" mocking Taylor Decker to the Colts.

[krunk]

49 minutes ago, southwest1 said:

I take it that you're not beaming with confidence with the possibility of a Ryan Kelly selection on Thursday? 

 

When Dustin or krunk have doubts that makes me nervous. Just sayin'...

 

Kelly can play it's just better and more impactful athletes will be available at that pick.  The team is not cursed if we draft Kelly, we just think there's a number of really good centers in this draft that can be acquired outside of Pick 18

[stitches]

35 minutes ago, DougDew said:

 "Sources on the coaching staff tell me they're not set on drafting an offensive tackle at any point in this draft and instead expect to go center and edge-rusher in some order with the first two picks".

 

I guess the writer feels that sources in this case far outweigh common sense.  He writes this as if it is a surprise that the Colts would take an interior lineman over a Tackle.

 

If sources don't indicate Tackle, and common sense doesn't indicate Tackle, then on what basis are media types speculating that the Colts will take a Tackle?   Apparently, it isn't sense or sources.

I'd say it's mostly laziness and ignorance.

[MSColtsFan]

 

37 minutes ago, LockeDown said:

The only way I don't like a Kelly pick is if he turns out to be average.  I hope he isn't being overhyped.   If he's as good as they say, then we will be glad years from now he's Luck's center.

If he can become a Maurkice Pouncey (18th) or Damian Woody (17th), I think we'd all be very happy with the pick.  Those are the only two centers taken at 18 or better since 1999, so it is rare. And you have to go back to 1993 and Steve Everitt to find a center taken earlier (14th).

 

Now last year there was Cameron Erving who was taken 19th..  but in typical Browns fashion they tried him at RG, never C, which failed.  Also, he had gone from DT to LT to C at Florida St in three years, so he came late to the OL party. 

[LockeDown]

7 minutes ago, MSColtsFan said:

 

If he can become a Maurkice Pouncey (18th) or Damian Woody (17th), I think we'd all be very happy with the pick.  Those are the only two centers taken at 18 or better since 1999, so it is rare. And you have to go back to 1993 and Steve Everitt to find a center taken earlier (14th).

 

Now last year there was Cameron Erving who was taken 19th..  but in typical Browns fashion they tried him at RG, never C, which failed.  Also, he had gone from DT to LT to C at Florida St in three years, so he came late to the OL party. 

Yes, that's my point.  IF he's as good as they say.

[LockeDown]

40 minutes ago, Defjamz26 said:

Yes. But I think his point was that the QB is top priority. If you can find a center who can make all the line calls and keep your QB clean then its justifiable to take a center high. An elite center like that is more valuable than a top CB, DT, WR,etc...

Exactly.

[southwest1]

26 minutes ago, krunk said:

 

Kelly can play it's just better and more impactful athletes will be available at that pick.  The team is not cursed if we draft Kelly, we just think there's a number of really good centers in this draft that can be acquired outside of Pick 18

Thanks for the clarification. I get it anytime a team has a pick in the top 20; you want to know that that athlete can immediately be inserted into the starting lineup, make an immediate impact, & hit the ground running. I'm not saying a player chosen at 18 is an automatic player that never comes off the field, but they should be in frequent rotation with plays designed to appeal to their natural skill set even if only for a specific package of formations. 

[dgambill]

It's hard to take a center that high up. Don't get me wrong he seems to be a great center but we also had Jeff Saturday who is a ring of honor caliber center that was an UDFA if I'm not mistaken. I know that might not be typical but most centers aren't picked this high up. However if he is a lock pro bowl caliber center than there is no arguing it. I guess depending on what's on the board I'd rather wait to get my center in a later rd....heck even the second but its hard to pass on the potential of someone great there in rd 1 that we likely won't be picking that high again at.

[LockeDown]

Grigson's interviews always have him saying he will take BPA and go by his board, and to not do that is a discredit to his scouts. He actually said that. This means he could potentially come out of this draft w/o a center.   That means he would get a UDFA.....that's what worries me.  Then everyone will really be hot at him.  

[Traines]

36 minutes ago, krunk said:

Kelly can play it's just better and more impactful athletes will be available at that pick.  The team is not cursed if we draft Kelly, we just think there's a number of really good centers in this draft that can be acquired outside of Pick 18

Nicely put, exactly how I feel about the situation

[Dustin]

1 hour ago, Defjamz26 said:

Yes. But I think his point was that the QB is top priority. If you can find a center who can make all the line calls and keep your QB clean then its justifiable to take a center high. An elite center like that is more valuable than a top CB, DT, WR,etc...

 

Definitely not. Otherwise thise positions wouldn't be getting paid 2-3 times the money.

[southwest1]

7 minutes ago, dgambill said:

It's hard to take a center that high up. Don't get me wrong he seems to be a great center but we also had Jeff Saturday who is a ring of honor caliber center that was an UDFA if I'm not mistaken. I know that might not be typical but most centers aren't picked this high up. However if he is a lock pro bowl caliber center than there is no arguing it. I guess depending on what's on the board I'd rather wait to get my center in a later rd....heck even the second but its hard to pass on the potential of someone great there in rd 1 that we likely won't be picking that high again at.

I get both sides of that argument & you're right odds are INDY won't be picking that high next yr. I keep thinking back to 2006 when the NY Jets grabbed Nick Mangold at center & he's been a stud at that position ever since. I can't dismiss that. 

 

Finding another Jeff Saturday the way we did is pretty darn rare though & not likely to happen again with similar success dgb. A quality center cannot be underestimated. Maybe INDY needs to get our version of Nick Mangold in Colts country now. 

[Jackie Daytona]

4 minutes ago, LockeDown said:

Grigson's interviews always have him saying he will take BPA and go by his board, and to not do that is a discredit to his scouts. He actually said that. This means he could potentially come out of this draft w/o a center.   That means he would get a UDFA.....that's what worries me.  Then everyone will really be hot at him.  

I'm cool with that, IF the UDFA is the next Jeff Saturday...... 

[UKColt13]

I know it's a need, but I can't help thinking that he's a reach at 18. There will be better players available at 18.

[Jackie Daytona]

I'd say the Need absolutely has to be addressed....integral component of the Oline, and has been a shambles since Saturday left...... if Kelly at 18 fixes it, I'm in...... the 48th best player in the draft should yield plenty of Talent at any position we need, even C, if we go another direction at 18... but C is a must fix...... not sure I'd gamble that a guy I want and is a fit is there in rounds 4-7, in the 3rd there will be some talent, but how big is the drop from Kelly, Martin, Allen to Seumalo et al......

 

[BlueShoe]

Everyone pretty much knows how I feel.

 

Back flips over the couch if we draft Kelly at #18!

 

BlueShoe would be one happy man. 

[dgambill]

13 minutes ago, LockeDown said:

Grigson's interviews always have him saying he will take BPA and go by his board, and to not do that is a discredit to his scouts. He actually said that. This means he could potentially come out of this draft w/o a center.   That means he would get a UDFA.....that's what worries me.  Then everyone will really be hot at him.  

Honestly I doubt that. I think he will take one or trade up or back to the point where bpa IS a C. What he is saying is he isn't going to reach for a position or player. He is going to take the highest valued player available. He did NOT say he wouldn't trade to a place where that player coveted or left on the board at a position of need (C)  isn't BPA. We have seen him move back in the draft a couple of times and up. BPA doesn't have to mean you can't taget a need...it just means if you are unable to target needs or players you won't FORCE a pick just because there is a need at that position if the value isn't there. We basically have so many needs and room for improvement and depth at so many positions its virtually impossible not to help this team by going BPA. I wouldn't be surprised to see Grigson move all over in this draft to get the players he covets. Maybe he won't...and if that's the case he isn't going to force a pick.

[MSColtsFan]

5 minutes ago, southwest1 said:

I get both sides of that argument & you're right odds are INDY won't be picking that high next yr. I keep thinking back to 2006 when the NY Jets grabbed Nick Mangold at center & he's been a stud at that position ever since. I can't dismiss that. 

 

Finding another Jeff Saturday the way we did is pretty darn rare though & not likely to happen again with similar success dgb. A quality center cannot be underestimated. Maybe INDY needs to get our version of Nick Mangold in Colts country now. 

Well said SW.  Your chances of success in a draft obviously increase the higher the pick, not the opposite.  It isn't very often the Colts have had a chance at taking the best player at a given position in a draft.  Especially such a key position like center.  Huge responsibilities at that position. It isn't glamorous, it isn't flashy, but I wouldn't cry if they took Kelly at 18.  I'd understand it.  Then we all hope, like with all draft picks, the kid is incredible and plays for 12 seasons. 

[NorthernBlue]

Barring another major injury to Luck in the near future, our team should not be drafting this high for at least the next ten years. Which is why I really think it's important that we get the most talented player available, regardless of position. (with some exception ex WR). A player like Kelly in all likelihood will fix the O line problem, which would be huge, but I don't think his value would be nearly as high as a guy like Floyd, Ragland, Lee. Which is why I think it'd be unwise to select Ryan Kelly with the 18th pick in the draft.