If the season is to be saved, we have to make a change....

[Superman]

Nice post.    I'm with ya,  I feel ya.

 

The strange thing about the Ravens change,  is that one happened I think something around week 13 or 14!    And it worked!

 

I hope we don't wait for that.    I can't believe how terribly screwed up Andrew Luck looks.    Completely lost out there.

 

I appreciate that you don't want to over-react,  or appear to panic,   but I'm not sure how many times you want to put the team at risk by continuing to flounder with this offense.

 

Never seen anything like this in nearly 50 year of being a football fan.     

 

I think the short week might be saving Pep's bacon right now. 

[SteelCityColt]

Interestingly we're obviously but the only team in this boat. That is to say a preseason favourite who's now 0-2. However I don't think any other team's coaching staff have as many rumours/questions. Thinking the Seahawks, Eagles, Ravens etc. Heck I bet even Coughlin isn't as much on the hot seat.

The nearest I can think of would be Kelly in PHI but that's rumours of players starting to be more vocal in their dissent now they're losing.

[2006Coltsbestever]

I am still not in panic mode regarding not making the Playoffs because we should win our Division games and I think we will but regarding winning the SB, that doesn't look good and that was the goal.

[PotatoHead]

i 100 percent agree with you !!!!

Ditto

[ztboiler]

The offense is a complete disaster.

 

Luck looks confused and lacking confidence.     That's on Pep.

We all know that Pep won't lose his job during the season this year....but when NCF is done taking the long view of things on a topic, then it has my attention!  I'm not much for reactions, but there comes a time when the data all adds up to action being required.

 

Most of what is being said, like the portion I've quoted above feels true in general, but isn't specific enough for balanced action - especially after only two games.  I very much like the specifics of evidence to support action and what can or should be done as a solution.  This is the evidence that puts Pep on trial in my book:

 

1) Luck is a proven star, but stars need a growth plan too.  As you've stated, Luck does look confused and indecisive.  The main area of needed development for Luck through his first 3 years has been to get the ball out faster - make easy plays, better offensive rhythm.  Arians taught Luck to hold the ball and sling it downfield - we can use that - but it was Pep's job to demand that most drop backs end in 3 seconds and the ball must be out, or we are looking for a secure and positive alternative.  Through two games, it is clear that Pep thought he could wind Luck up and let him solve all of his own problems.  Bad idea.

 

2) Related to the first point.  Development of a blitz handling identity - a complimentary short rhythm passing game.  All the physical and mental tools are there - but it is clear that Luck doesn't have an auto response sequence from Pep and it should look something like this:  

    a)  Hot read zone - easy underneath completion to vacancy

    b)  Hot read man - quick hit to the high percentage secure matchup advantage.

    c)  Use your feet if they jam your hot read and you can't swing it to a back.

 

3) Commit to moving the chains.  You can't stop a short passing game and running game at the same time with any kind of coordinated offensive approach when you have Luck's skills at command central.  

 

The fact that Pep will be moving to this approach retroactively (backing up 3 years of talk) tells us that he isn't the right guy - that is evidence I'm comfortable with.

[Jason_]

I'm not going to be too critical yet on the pass rush.  I at least want to see how they do once we get our secondary back.

[Doctor Mad]

Ztboiler, well stated.  Swing passes, hitches, slants to TEs and screens were noticably absent.  Why weren't they called?  Luck looked like a deer in the headlights.  He looked like this last week also.  Is there something going on in his personal life?  He just doesn't seem the same.  Gore on a swing pass, Fleener or Allen on drag patterns, hitches to Moncrief and/or Dorsett, AJ on quick slants, these are weapons that so far are untapped.  OLine is performing well considering.  Sure wish we had signed Mathis.  IMO

[Doctor Mad]

BTW I was impressed with the run D, especially Anderson!  Need kick butt ILBs with nasty streaks.  CBs did a credible job in light of the fact that both starters were out!  Too bad, this gmae was ours for the taking.  Couldn't believe the fumbling by gore near goal line.  Oh well, Go Colts!

[theanarchist]

lol we have moderators calling out posters that are following the rules?  I like you, 21isSuperman, and I know you are just volunteering your time here, but that was pretty crazy/unprofessional.

 

This really has been a meltdown night.

 

Anyway, on topic, I agree with much of what was said in the original post.  The lack of RB screens against pressure and the complete disappearance of TEs in the passing game is baffling.

 

The penalties are also out of control. 

I'm not making excuses. We lost and deserved to lose because of the horrible offensive line play and the turnovers. But, there were at least a half dozen calls that went against us that were either non-existent or tacky tack nonsense calls. People that I know who were neutral observers were complaining about the officiating crew. It was pathetic.

[Architects08]

I'm really just throwing out ideas, but what about calling up Seattle and trying trade for Kam Chancellor?

Disregard this post if it's not possible cap wise. I'm to lazy to look it up.

[NewEra]

Sorry, but Pep has to go. The sooner the better.

The offense is a complete disaster.

Luck looks confused and lacking confidence. That's on Pep.

The running game is spotty at best and that's on Pep.

The passing game is a horrible mess and that's on Pep. Does he even know it's OK to pass to tight ends and running backs? Almost everything is to a wide receiver.

Pep doesn't understand the difference between college football and the NFL. He's still trying to use things that worked at Stanford and tries to make them work at the Professional level.

I rarely want to see 6 or 7 OL. Not with all our weapons. I don't want to see David Parry at fullback. I don't want to see Josh Robinson or the Vega kid in crucial situations -- trying for a 1st down or inside the 10. That's why we brought in Frank Gore. I think the Gore fumble was brought on by a poor exchange with Luck that wasn't clean. I could be wrong, but that's what I thought I saw.

I think we give away plays by alerting everyone in the stadium of our intentions by personnel groupings on down and distance. I sit at home and call out "pass" or "run" depnding on down and distance and where we are on the field. I'm not wrong that often. All we're doing is making our job much, much harder than it has to be.

Honestly, I hope we all wake up tomorrow to find Pep has been let go and Chudzinski is the new OC. The sooner this happens, the better off the Colts will be.

NCF

I've been trying to give the guy a break since he's been here but he's been out coached by damn near every DC in the league. Luck has made him look good. But I have never liked his plays, his lineups or his play calling. It's really shown these last two games

[Superman]

I'm really just throwing out ideas, but what about calling up Seattle and trying trade for Kam Chancellor?

Disregard this post if it's not possible cap wise. I'm to lazy to look it up.

 

It works on the cap, but Kam Chancellor doesn't play offense, so it's kind of out of place in this thread. Not only that, but I don't think the Seahawks are interested in moving Chancellor unless they're getting a great haul in return, so I'm not really that interested. 

[Superman]

Hmmm...not entirely true. In Luck's rookie year, Luck saw Donald Brown streaking across underneath open and missed spotting him and Arians, "lovingly", pointed it out. Arians is quick to make adjustments and if it involves delayed RB dump offs, he will do it. He has used Ellington in the passing game enough times in Arizona too. It is just not a staple of his offense by any means, that we all agree on .

 

I'm not the guy to be dogmatic, but these are Arians' words: http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap1000000140629/article/bruce-arians-cardinals-backs-are-runners-protectors

 

He's since softened on that a little bit, and they use Ellington (when healthy) as a receiver a lot. Maybe I'm overstating it, but Arians' offense was never known for getting the backs involved in the passing game. Colts running backs caught 34 total passes in 2012, compared to over 80 in 2013.

[Superman]

Alex Van Pelt should continue to be on the radar for several teams after this season.

 

http://www.jsonline.com/sports/packers/coachs-experience-at-qb-has-paid-off-for-aaron-rodgers-b99406391z1-285451951.html

http://www.espnwisconsin.com/common/more.php?m=49&action=blog&r=40&post_id=46181

http://www.packersnews.com/story/sports/nfl/packers/insidersblog/2015/02/12/van-pelt-calls-coaching-2-positions-a-chance-to-grow/23322683/

http://www.tbo.com/sports/bucs/former-bucs-assistant-making-things-happen-in-green-bay-20150215/

[RockThatBlue]

I can't believe you want to fight this?!

We were without Vonte (for a half) Toler, Butler and Smith for the whole game.

Our corners were Brown, Price and Patterson for the entire 2nd half.

We were down bodies on the DL. Without Newsome on the linebacking core.

And the offense consistently put the defense in bad situations.

You maybe in a bad mood and not ready to give anyone any credit, but ignoring facts doesn't help your cause.

The defense played terrific under very, very difficult circumstances.

Yup. The defense played very well. The Jets had only 13 points until the bottom part of the 4th quarter. The defense gave the offense chance after chance and the offense blew it. I don't see how anybody can blame the defense for the loss when you just won't win many games scoring 7 points with 5 turnovers. We would lose to any crappy team, let alone a good team with dumpster fire offensive numbers like that.

[RockThatBlue]

or the Colts will go in and barely eek out a win, but still sputter on offense for the first half and allow the Titans to hang in the entire game...

much like the story line from most games last season...

Oh wait it is in TN, I feel a tahsty 0-3 coming on...

Yeah, that's how I feel. I think we will win but I'm not as confident as before. If our offense once again doesn't show up we could easily be 0-3.

[RockThatBlue]

"DID WE EVEN THROW A PASS TO A TE??"

Nope. Fleener has 1 target in 2 games. Allen 6 targets but that was before injury

Actually we did throw to a TE

That TE was Joe friggen Reitz.

[RockThatBlue]

It's worthwhile pointing out Bruce Arians is 23 - 11 since taking over the Cardinals as HC, and that he is also the play caller as well. His fingerprints are on every Cardinals game, as this article shows-

http://www.azcentral.com/story/sports/nfl/cardinals/2015/09/19/cardinals-bruce-arians-rarely-lays-up-when-calling-plays/72467206/

Luck got hit a lot, but Luck connected on big chunk plays often, especially 3rd down. Had many 4th quarter comebacks with out makeshift D not holding down opponents very well. Now Luck just gets hit a lot. With nothing but Interceptions and fumbles to show for it. Very sad.

We have turned the ball over 9 times in 2 games. Pitiful 0 - 2

Jets have created 10 turnovers in 2 games. 2 - 0.

I'm sick of penalties (because our blocking ability/technique stinks) and especially interceptions!! (and fumbles).

The penalties have been absolute killers. This team shoots itself in the foot with rocket launchers.

[Gavin]

Actually we did throw to a TE

That TE was Joe friggen Reitz.

Eh it wasn't the first choice I would have liked obviously,  Way to cute. But a better blocking alignment pre-snap, It was a horrible shift and a bad throw that cost us...Example of what should have happened

 

1.Joe Reitz while not my first choice to be catching passes is fine still on 2nd down....He was a former TE in high school....Yes its high school but he certainly can catch

2.The line should have shifted RIGHT instead of LEFT....It was a simple numbers game that caused the problem and a bad throw

3.Herremans should have stepped right and blocked #98

4.Holmes should have blocked right #96

5.Louis should have blocked NT Damon Harrison (Stepping RIGHT)

6.Castonzo should have blocked #92 stepping right

 

If those assignments are all executed properly (or at all) you have David Harris coming up the middle for Doyle to block which he probably can handle more often then not

 

The pre-snap shift to the left was wrong, Reitz was actually open, A better pass and a little less pressure gives Reitz all the chance in the world to catch the pass

 

That play was won pre-snap by the Jets, I did not hear or see anyone point out the Mike Linebacker who was Harris on that play

[theanarchist]

I'm not the guy to be dogmatic, but these are Arians' words: http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap1000000140629/article/bruce-arians-cardinals-backs-are-runners-protectors

 

He's since softened on that a little bit, and they use Ellington (when healthy) as a receiver a lot. Maybe I'm overstating it, but Arians' offense was never known for getting the backs involved in the passing game. Colts running backs caught 34 total passes in 2012, compared to over 80 in 2013.

I think the problem, more than anything, is the pressure that has been put on by the defenses the first two weeks. Right up the middle. There is no pocket per se. When he does have time their is either no separation or the back is staying in to block.

[UKColt13]

I completely agree. The offense so far has been a complete dumpster fire. We have too much talent to be shut out in the 1st half twice in two weeks.

 

Although I don't see anything happening until the end of the season, where I expect to see a complete purge if Big Jim isn't wearing a pretty new ring.

 

Personally I'd love to see Greg Roman come in as OC or even HC as I don't think he'd Buffalo for another OC job.

[King Colt]

The 0-2 start is not a shock. The Raiders beating Baltimore is. The Redskins are now on top. The Eagles don't have a running game is a shock. San Fran got crushed by Pittsburg and Tennessee went from a super high to a loss in week #2. It is the game and I read Las Vegas took a monster hit in week one. Who knows what will happen, if there is one certainty it is probably New England winning. Stay tuned but keep you money in your pocket.   

[Coffeedrinker]

The right guy for the reboot phase isn't necessarily the right guy for sustained contention phase. I like Pagano, too, and I'm not certain he needs to go. But his team has been unprepared two weeks in a row, against above average teams. We came into this season looking forward to matchups against Pittsburgh, New England, etc., but right now, I'm nervous about the Titans. 

This is so true and it's similar to what the Colts did with Mora.  More was a great coach to rebuild a team, he was not the right coach to take them to the next level, so they got rid of Mora after a 6-10 season and brought in Dungy that became a decade long success story.

 

If the Colts do that, I'd like to see them give Josh McDaniels.

[krunk]

We just need to add more blitz beaters on the outside to deal with all these middle blitzes.  Quick hitch, Bubble screen with a Y over, Rub Routes, and we need to add more things to get the running backs involved in the passing game.  In addition to this we need to keep progressing with the running game. Between Gore and Varga I think we would be very hard to stop on the ground.  And my biggest thing of all is we need to really increase the amount of play action passing we are doing.  Get em going one way with the run and come back the other way with the short to deep play action passing.  I think we've done so well against the blitz in the pass that Pep hasn't really changed anything.  Maybe he thought the Bills game was just a fluke overall.  He'd be a fool now to not see this is a huge problem and add some more blitz beaters, runs and passes that keep the quarterback from holding on to the football so long.

[ColtsBlueFL]

The penalties have been absolute killers. This team shoots itself in the foot with rocket launchers.

 

The penalties are drive killers.  But turnovers are game killers.  I heard an interesting turnover stat from Mike Golic about the Colts, and I added it to a table for emphasis-

                      W    L         

AFC South    16  - 2      +14 Turnover ratio  ( .889 % )

Rest NFL      17 - 13      -29 Turnover ratio  ( .567 % )

 

We are the equivalent of a 9 - 7 team in the NFL playing no AFC South teams, and I feel that -29  in turnover deficit is one big reason we don't perform better. You can't keep giving other teams more chances to score, especially if your defense is fair to midland at best.

 

If they get the turnovers and penalties cleaned up, we will thrive.  I'm missing Reggie Wayne, if nothing else but his leadership.  We have too many new guys (Roster turnover is incredible!) for them to have synchronized in action yet.  And it a shame that our leader is a main contributor to the turnover issue.  Who is part of the core leadership group on the Colts?  How about O leadership?  How about the D leadership?

 

I still think we can pull out the division win this year, but Super Bowl chances look somewhat less rosy now. But I am not giving up on it yet.

 

OTOH, we really do need to get and quickly develop younger players, that will grow as a cohesive unit, so that eventually the whole is greater than the sum of the parts.  we are not there yet.

 

[chad72]

This is so true and it's similar to what the Colts did with Mora.  More was a great coach to rebuild a team, he was not the right coach to take them to the next level, so they got rid of Mora after a 6-10 season and brought in Dungy that became a decade long success story.

 

If the Colts do that, I'd like to see them give Josh McDaniels.

 

I'd go Mike Shanahan before Josh McDaniels, just me. Mike Shanahan would want to shop for his groceries and will help with Luck's decision making better and Kyle Shanahan is in fact an upgrade over Pep, IMO, if Mike does bring him along (logical assumption). 

[krunk]

This is so true and it's similar to what the Colts did with Mora.  More was a great coach to rebuild a team, he was not the right coach to take them to the next level, so they got rid of Mora after a 6-10 season and brought in Dungy that became a decade long success story.

 

If the Colts do that, I'd like to see them give Josh McDaniels.

 

NDIANAPOLIS — The Colts fired Jim Mora on Tuesday after four seasons as Indianapolis' coach and two days after he tearfully declared he wanted to stay in the job. Team president Bill Polian said Mora was fired for refusing to replace defensive coordinator Vic Fangio, who had worked for Mora in each of his head coaching stops since 1983. Mora said his refusal to fire Fangio was the main reason for his firing but that there were other circumstances he couldn't discuss.

http://usatoday30.usatoday.com/sports/nfl/colts/2002-01-08-mora-fired.htm

 

I somewhat agree however according to this article it was more for his refusal to fire Vic Fangio.  Honestly if you look at this we've been trying to make more of a balanced football team for a while now, but it just hasn't worked out the way we wanted.  I wouldn't be surprised if they give or have given Pagano this same type of edict.

 

 

I'm just posting the rest of this because it's seems so eerily similar to what we are facing this season:

 

 

Indianapolis was considered a preseason Super Bowl contender but finished 6-10. It was just 3-5 at home and went through losing streaks of three and five games.

        While some blame could be placed on the offense, which had a conference-high 38 giveaways, much of the blame was placed on a defense that finished 29th overall and allowed more points than any other in the NFL.

        Mora defended the numbers.

        “Our guys fought hard, played hard and busted their tails, and I like our guys,” Mora said. “But you take an inferior defense and add that horrible field position they had and the turnovers and it makes it even worse. We weren't good enough to overcome that.”

        Polian acknowledged that he, too, was at fault for not providing Mora and Fangio with more impact players, but he said he believes the system was too complex for Indianapolis' young players.

        The Colts had six first-time starters on defense this year and Polian said Tuesday there could be four or five more new starters next season, some coming out of April's NFL draft.

        Mora said Fangio wasn't the only assistant Polian asked him to fire, but would not elaborate on who else was involved. For now, Polian said, the assistants are under contract and will be “retained.”

        After the firing, Mora thanked many within the organization — team owner Jim Irsay for the opportunity to coach the Colts, the players for their effort and everyone from vice presidents to custodians for their support.

        However, he did not mention Polian or characterize their relationship.

        “I'm not going to get into that,” he said.

        Polian said he would begin Tuesday night to compile a list of candidates to replace Mora and that he would share that list with Irsay before conducting interviews.

        While Polian refused to identify specific candidates, one name he was asked about was LSU coach Nick Saban. Saban recently agreed to a contract extension with LSU after winning the SEC title this season. He interviewed for the Colts job when Mora was hired.

        Mora compiled a 32-32 record in four seasons with the Colts and was 0-2 in the playoffs.

        But this past season was his most tumultuous.

        The Colts struggled on the field with injuries, including a season-ending knee injury to two-time NFL rushing champ Edgerrin James and a knee injury that kept linebacker Mike Peterson, the Colts' best defender, out of seven of the last eight games

 

http://bengals.enquirer.com/2002/01/09/ben_colts_fire_mora.html

[Narcosys]

IMO, if the O line can get fixed, we'd be fine. That's the key to everything wrong with our offense. Protection and just a little bit of run lanes would save it all.

[Coffeedrinker]

I'd go Mike Shanahan before Josh McDaniels, just me. Mike Shanahan would want to shop for his groceries and will help with Luck's decision making better and Kyle Shanahan is in fact an upgrade over Pep, IMO, if Mike does bring him along (logical assumption). 

I would not have a problem with Shanahan either.  And I think AC, Thornton, and Holmes would all do well in the ZBS Shanahan likes and I think Mewhort would pick it up very quickly.

[Coffeedrinker]

NDIANAPOLIS — The Colts fired Jim Mora on Tuesday after four seasons as Indianapolis' coach and two days after he tearfully declared he wanted to stay in the job. Team president Bill Polian said Mora was fired for refusing to replace defensive coordinator Vic Fangio, who had worked for Mora in each of his head coaching stops since 1983. Mora said his refusal to fire Fangio was the main reason for his firing but that there were other circumstances he couldn't discuss.

http://usatoday30.usatoday.com/sports/nfl/colts/2002-01-08-mora-fired.htm

 

I somewhat agree however according to this article it was more for his refusal to fire Vic Fangio.  Honestly if you look at this we've been trying to make more of a balanced football team for a while now, but it just hasn't worked out the way we wanted.  I wouldn't be surprised if they give or have given Pagano this same type of edict.

 

 

I'm just posting the rest of this because it's seems so eerily similar to what we are facing this season:

 

 

Indianapolis was considered a preseason Super Bowl contender but finished 6-10. It was just 3-5 at home and went through losing streaks of three and five games.

        While some blame could be placed on the offense, which had a conference-high 38 giveaways, much of the blame was placed on a defense that finished 29th overall and allowed more points than any other in the NFL.

        Mora defended the numbers.

        “Our guys fought hard, played hard and busted their tails, and I like our guys,” Mora said. “But you take an inferior defense and add that horrible field position they had and the turnovers and it makes it even worse. We weren't good enough to overcome that.”

        Polian acknowledged that he, too, was at fault for not providing Mora and Fangio with more impact players, but he said he believes the system was too complex for Indianapolis' young players.

        The Colts had six first-time starters on defense this year and Polian said Tuesday there could be four or five more new starters next season, some coming out of April's NFL draft.

        Mora said Fangio wasn't the only assistant Polian asked him to fire, but would not elaborate on who else was involved. For now, Polian said, the assistants are under contract and will be “retained.”

        After the firing, Mora thanked many within the organization — team owner Jim Irsay for the opportunity to coach the Colts, the players for their effort and everyone from vice presidents to custodians for their support.

        However, he did not mention Polian or characterize their relationship.

        “I'm not going to get into that,” he said.

        Polian said he would begin Tuesday night to compile a list of candidates to replace Mora and that he would share that list with Irsay before conducting interviews.

        While Polian refused to identify specific candidates, one name he was asked about was LSU coach Nick Saban. Saban recently agreed to a contract extension with LSU after winning the SEC title this season. He interviewed for the Colts job when Mora was hired.

        Mora compiled a 32-32 record in four seasons with the Colts and was 0-2 in the playoffs.

        But this past season was his most tumultuous.

        The Colts struggled on the field with injuries, including a season-ending knee injury to two-time NFL rushing champ Edgerrin James and a knee injury that kept linebacker Mike Peterson, the Colts' best defender, out of seven of the last eight games

 

http://bengals.enquirer.com/2002/01/09/ben_colts_fire_mora.html

Yup, I remember all that at the time.  But Fangio's fate was almost predetermined before the season and it was sealed when he went on his playoffs rant.  0-2 in the playoffs and two losing seasons in 4 years.

 

But GMs take a long term approach to team building, good ones don't make spur of the moment decisions and they wouldn't fire a coach they think is a long term answer just because they won't fire a coordinator because if you think coach is the long term answer then you would have to trust his judgement on who he wants for his staff.

 

Just my take at least.

[OffensivelyPC]

We all know that Pep won't lose his job during the season this year....but when NCF is done taking the long view of things on a topic, then it has my attention!  I'm not much for reactions, but there comes a time when the data all adds up to action being required.

 

Most of what is being said, like the portion I've quoted above feels true in general, but isn't specific enough for balanced action - especially after only two games.  I very much like the specifics of evidence to support action and what can or should be done as a solution.  This is the evidence that puts Pep on trial in my book:

 

1) Luck is a proven star, but stars need a growth plan too.  As you've stated, Luck does look confused and indecisive.  The main area of needed development for Luck through his first 3 years has been to get the ball out faster - make easy plays, better offensive rhythm.  Arians taught Luck to hold the ball and sling it downfield - we can use that - but it was Pep's job to demand that most drop backs end in 3 seconds and the ball must be out, or we are looking for a secure and positive alternative.  Through two games, it is clear that Pep thought he could wind Luck up and let him solve all of his own problems.  Bad idea.

 

2) Related to the first point.  Development of a blitz handling identity - a complimentary short rhythm passing game.  All the physical and mental tools are there - but it is clear that Luck doesn't have an auto response sequence from Pep and it should look something like this:  

    a)  Hot read zone - easy underneath completion to vacancy

    b)  Hot read man - quick hit to the high percentage secure matchup advantage.

    c)  Use your feet if they jam your hot read and you can't swing it to a back.

 

3) Commit to moving the chains.  You can't stop a short passing game and running game at the same time with any kind of coordinated offensive approach when you have Luck's skills at command central.  

 

The fact that Pep will be moving to this approach retroactively (backing up 3 years of talk) tells us that he isn't the right guy - that is evidence I'm comfortable with.

It wouldn't hurt for Pep to call draws and screens once in a while.

[SteelCityColt]

It wouldn't hurt for Pep to call draws and screens once in a while.

 

He seems to love calling draws in "& Long" situations, to the point it's almost predictable. Well, that's how it seems to me without checking anyway.