Odds Of Manning Returning

[Revis FL]

If the Colts draft Luck, I think it is inevitable that Peyton does not finish his career in Indy, unless he retires early. He will be traded in my opinion. If healthy, he can play for another 4-5 more years. It would be absurd to sit Luck for that long.

[DILLIGAFER]

The NFL is a business. And successful businesses make very "tough" and "unpopular" decisions all the time.

And how do YOU know that Peyton is NOT the one who would saying ... "release me" ??????

QBing San Fran or the NY Jets looks a lot better right now than Indy.

And like the aricle stated... Manning and Luck have the same agent. Archie has thrown out the "Manning" stance. Add it up. These two are not going to be on the same team. ANd Manning on the open market will break the bank.

It will be one or the other. And I would bet it is Luck. Simply because of the uncertainty surrounding Manning and his neck

I stated how i feel in the matter yet you go and make it personal.

Edited January 3, 2012 by Maureen
inflammatory

[pacolts56]

Manning walks healthy, watch a hefty portion of the fan base walk. If he is healthy and Irsay pulls a stunt like ditching the man that built this team up, I will walk and follow Manning because its idiocracy to let a player like Manning walk away to another team.

Mr. Irsay, you will loose my respect.

Irsay has shelled out roughly $175 million in salary and bonuses to Peyton.....and we got a nice long run and a Super Bowl in return.

And Irsay now faces the prospect of another $28 million outlay, and another injury flushes THAT money down the toilet and counts $17 million against our cap..

Let it go man.....nothing lasts forever in the NFL.

[DILLIGAFER]

Thats fine if you feel that way. Thankyou for not insulting my view. However I feel Manning deserves to stick around Indy and retire a colt. JMO.

[oldunclemark]

There's a lot of talk....

The fact that Manning and Luck have the same agent suggests they'll work out some kind of arrangement... to be teacher and pupil

Manning cannot be traded..its is not possible...due to his salary and injury situation...

the only one who could be traded is Luck....and you can give him a 4-year contract with a player-trade option after 2..

Most rookie QBs dont win........Luck SHOULD want to sit behind Manning for at least one season..and that's all we need to know if Mannng is OK

[icf]

Manning can be traded, I dont know why some think that it can't happen.

That said, I dont know how much you would get for him prior to the draft in 3 1/2 months.

Most likely, I could see a team giving the Colts a 3rd round pick for the 2012 draft that would then include conditional picks if he stays healthy. You could do something like this.....3rd round up front in 2012 and if he starts any games next season they get a 1st rounder in 2013. If he starts another set # number (say 8) they get another 1st rounder in 2014. You could probably add other variables to sweet the pot for the Colts as well.

I could see a # of teams jumping on that sort of deal....if he plays again -- it would be huge get for the team he goes too (assuming he stays healthy for the majority of the season) and if not, their risk is minimal.

I'd say the odds right now are about 50/50 of him coming back -- all of the QB possibilities the Colts face this offseason have a measure of risk and reward. No matter what they decide to do, it could work out really well....or really backfire on them.

[Peyton and Eli fan]

Manning can be traded, I dont know why some think that it can't happen.

That said, I dont know how much you would get for him prior to the draft in 3 1/2 months.

Most likely, I could see a team giving the Colts a 3rd round pick for the 2012 draft that would then include conditional picks if he stays healthy. You could do something like this.....3rd round up front in 2012 and if he starts any games next season they get a 1st rounder in 2013. If he starts another set # number (say 8) they get another 1st rounder in 2014. You could probably add other variables to sweet the pot for the Colts as well.

I could see a # of teams jumping on that sort of deal....if he plays again -- it would be huge get for the team he goes too (assuming he stays healthy for the majority of the season) and if not, their risk is minimal.

I'd say the odds right now are about 50/50 of him coming back -- all of the QB possibilities the Colts face this offseason have a measure of risk and reward. No matter what they decide to do, it could work out really well....or really backfire on them.

The decision on the $28 million is due before the trading period opens. You can't trade him without first paying him that money, which wouldn't make financial sense.

[GatorColts]

In my opinion, if Manning is healthy and can play, I do not think we take Luck honestly. I want Luck to be a Colt, but I do not see him sitting 3-5 years behind Manning.

[oldunclemark]

Manning can be traded, I dont know why some think that it can't happen.

That said, I dont know how much you would get for him prior to the draft in 3 1/2 months.

Most likely, I could see a team giving the Colts a 3rd round pick for the 2012 draft that would then include conditional picks if he stays healthy. You could do something like this.....3rd round up front in 2012 and if he starts any games next season they get a 1st rounder in 2013. If he starts another set # number (say 8) they get another 1st rounder in 2014. You could probably add other variables to sweet the pot for the Colts as well.

I could see a # of teams jumping on that sort of deal....if he plays again -- it would be huge get for the team he goes too (assuming he stays healthy for the majority of the season) and if not, their risk is minimal.

I'd say the odds right now are about 50/50 of him coming back -- all of the QB possibilities the Colts face this offseason have a measure of risk and reward. No matter what they decide to do, it could work out really well....or really backfire on them.

icf..the trade would have to occut before anyone knows about Peytons health.

Either the Colts pay him and trade him..which won thappen..

Or someone like NY takes him with his injured neck and pays him $28 mil.

Who would pay $28 mil for a guy they dont know can play??

Mannjng couple be released....but with a $28 mil tab..he cant be traded..

In the history of professional sport..I do not know of anyone who was ever traded to a team carrying a contract for $28,000,000.

That teams GM would be fired and hung

It cannot happen...

[pacolts56]

Thats fine if you feel that way. Thankyou for not insulting my view. However I feel Manning deserves to stick around Indy and retire a colt. JMO.

It's all good....I remember my W-T-F moment when the Colts traded Unitas years back. And particularly sickening was the fairy-tale ending Elway enjoyed after refusing to play for the Colts.

We all wish Peyton's neck never got hurt.....but maybe it can still end well.

[WSO]

I also think its unfair to Manning to really put him on the spot. Imagine in 2 or 3 years when he will be pressured to retire or to let Luck take over the reigns. I don't want Manning to be in the same spot Favre was, and Manning signed the contract wanting to play all 5 years. Is it really fair to sort of "kick him to the curb" after a couple to let Luck take over? I sure as heck would love to see Manning play for the Colts the next 4 years if he is healthy but I don't want him to be pressured with Luck sitting behind him waiting for him to "get lost". Also I'm sure the Colts would owe Manning some kind of dead money if he retired or was cut etc. even if Luck took over.

[Hoosier]

If it makes any difference to anyone, the last four paragraphs from the following article: http://espn.go.com/c...-nfl-preference

For his part, Manning said Sunday he is not worried about co-existing with Luck in the same locker room.

"I think I can co-exist with any player I've ever played with. I think I've always been a good teammate in that way," said Manning, who has worked with Luck as both a camper and a counselor at the Manning Passing Academy.

If Manning does return to the Colts in 2012, it's unlikely Luck would get much playing time. Luck said he's not concerned about potentially spending at least one year as a backup.

"If that's the situation, I'm sure it'd be great. If that's how it is, such is life. If that is indeed what happens then I'll do the best I can," Luck told ESPN.

[doogansquest]

Yeah, I'm tired of why "they can't exist" articles. Both Manning and Luck have been quoted as saying "they can exist" together. Either way, Irsay already has a plan and he is about to let it be known.

So because two players didn't spark an unnecessary flame, or create controversy from nothing by saying they CAN'T coexist, that's proof that they WANT to? What are they supposed to say? Big time QB's have to say the right things at all times.

Manning and Irsay have both been quoted as stating that Peyton will suit up and play in 2012.

Experts familiar with, and around the situation have stated Manning is not only seeing the physiological regeneration associated with a successful surgery, but that he will regain the strength that was lost 4 years ago when he took the hit in Washington.

I know some of you want to be rid of Manning in the hopes that Luck will become Aaron Rodgers (who's back up just proved he (Rodgers) may not even be the best QB on that team), but the evidence we have points to #18 calling the plays at the line for the remainder of his contract.

[King Colt]

"New Direction" came out in Isays statement about the GM situation. Define "new direction".

I see it as 1. Manning is gone 2. Coaches are gone. "Football is a business", how many times have we heard this?

Irsay demands not only a winner but a champion so hold on to your ponies as this should be a wild ride. Hopefully, a good ride!!!

[ViriLudant]

Eli Manning.

I had to laugh when I read this.

Do you remember how Eli got to NY? He pulled a John Elway.

Luck may very well do the same.

[Dustin]

I had to laugh when I read this.

Do you remember how Eli got to NY? He pulled a John Elway.

Luck may very well do the same.

Luck has no leverage.

[MSColtsFan]

Elway won Superbowls at 37 and 38 - the oldest QB to win titles. TD's rushing a good defense helped just a little. Peyton will be 36 when next year starts. Only Carson Palmer sat in year one, so it is unlikely Luck would or should sit longer than one year. Sometimes opportunities present themselves before anyone is ready for them, or wants to make difficult decisions. But if Luck turns out to be as good as all the scouts say - the highest graded QB in 30 years - how unbelievably lucky for the Colts to watch lightning strike twice, with Manning than Luck. This is a QB league, and you can't pass on one of the highest graded at that position in decades. More importantly, I think, you can't expect, no matter how great, a 36, 38, or 40 year old QB to win it all. Especially when the supporting cast on the roster delivered two wins in the previous year.

[ViriLudant]

Luck has no leverage.

Eli also started for half of the Giants' games that season. Are you saying that you're fine with Luck doing that next year?

[Dustin]

Eli also started for half of the Giants' games that season. Are you saying that you're fine with Luck doing that next year?

I am if Peyton plays like Warner did in 2004.

[YourManBlu]

Manning has had 3 next surgeries in the last what year or year and half? He's made millions, he's won a Super Bowl, he going to the hall of fame, in my opinion he's too smart than to come back and risk his future health with a team that clearly is rebuilding. The chances he comes back to play for us I would say is about 10%. All it takes it one hit and he could be having serious problems. It's sad and he has been fun to watch but we got to be real.

[GoPats]

Here is an article on coltsauthority.com that states why Andrew Luck and Peyton cannot co-exist:

http://www.coltsauth...t-co-exist.html

That's pretty informative Chad. Thanks.

Loved this line:

For a moment, stop considering what you think things should be like. Maybe Luck and Manning should hold hands and skip around the complex as a show of friendship, love, and loyalty to the fans and future of the team. Even if you think that's how they should behave, please be mature enough to realize that's not going to happen.

Worth noting for the naysayers that in the end, the writer says he's rather keep Manning (assuming he's healthy) for his four final years and deal Luck.

[WSO]

So because two players didn't spark an unnecessary flame, or create controversy from nothing by saying they CAN'T coexist, that's proof that they WANT to? What are they supposed to say? Big time QB's have to say the right things at all times.

Manning and Irsay have both been quoted as stating that Peyton will suit up and play in 2012.

Experts familiar with, and around the situation have stated Manning is not only seeing the physiological regeneration associated with a successful surgery, but that he will regain the strength that was lost 4 years ago when he took the hit in Washington.

I know some of you want to be rid of Manning in the hopes that Luck will become Aaron Rodgers (who's back up just proved he (Rodgers) may not even be the best QB on that team), but the evidence we have points to #18 calling the plays at the line for the remainder of his contract.

So Matt Flynn throws 6 TDs against a lousy Lions defense and all of the sudden he may not be the best QB on that team? I was right with you until I read that part which IMO is absolutely absurd.

Also Irsay said Manning will be on this team next year if healthy. He is not 100% healthy right now and saying=/=proving. There is only one man who knows if he is truly healthy and ready to play next year and we all know who that is. A CEO of a billion dollar franchise really wants to risk everything on an aging QB with 3 neck surgeries due 35Million next year? Or the best prospect since John Elway, a healthy young QB that is NFL ready day 1?

[deedub75]

Manning has had 3 next surgeries in the last what year or year and half? He's made millions, he's won a Super Bowl, he going to the hall of fame, in my opinion he's too smart than to come back and risk his future health with a team that clearly is rebuilding. The chances he comes back to play for us I would say is about 10%. All it takes it one hit and he could be having serious problems. It's sad and he has been fun to watch but we got to be real.

Each and every player is one hit away from having serious problems. Do your research on Manning's neck fusion surgery. It will actually make his neck stronger and more stable than it was before he was hurt. If anything, he was more susceptible to a major injury from the time he first injured the neck and before he had the fusion surgery. His neck was very unstable before the fusion surgery. There have been other players (Kelvin Hayden, Mike Alstott, etc) who have had the same surgery and continued to play.

I think Manning will be healthy and be back. The problems are the $28M bonus and Luck sitting on the bench until Manning is finished playing. Luck will not want to sit that long. He wants to and should play immediatly.

[YourManBlu]

Each and every player is one hit away from having serious problems. Do your research on Manning's neck fusion surgery. It will actually make his neck stronger and more stable than it was before he was hurt. If anything, he was more susceptible to a major injury from the time he first injured the neck and before he had the fusion surgery. His neck was very unstable before the fusion surgery. There have been other players (Kelvin Hayden, Mike Alstott, etc) who have had the same surgery and continued to play.

I think Manning will be healthy and be back. The problems are the $28M bonus and Luck sitting on the bench until Manning is finished playing. Luck will not want to sit that long. He wants to and should play immediatly.

We will see I agree everyone is one hit away but I'm sticking with what I said

[PolkHigh33]

It will be one or the other. And I would bet it is Luck. Simply because of the uncertainty surrounding Manning and his neck

It's always refreshing to read lines like this - completely ignoring the uncertainty surrounding Luck and his abilities to lead us to the playoffs in 11 of the next 13 seasons :hmm:

And it is completely devastating to listen to all the "it's just business crap". Being fan of a team goes far beyond the so-called business. If you do not see that you have got a very weird perception of being a fan (maybe this is due to your strange culture of missing relegation and promotion and the lack of experiencing the highs and lows that comes with them). IF Manning's healthy then I do not see any reason why he should not be able to play 3 or 4 years at a very high level. At least higher than a rookie QB. And I really cannot imagine that there won't be any other rookie QB that might help the Colts as well in the next 2 or 3 drafts.

Man, the next 3 months will be pure drama. I hate drama!!!

[deedub75]

$50M invested in 2 QBs is gonna be hard to swallow even for Irsay. Expect ticket prices to go up this year.

[DILLIGAFER]

$50M invested in 2 QBs is gonna be hard to swallow even for Irsay. Expect ticket prices to go up this year.

If this team does what I think it can with a healthy Manning, id pay to watch him play at least one more year. After all, ive never had the privilage to watch him work. Only on tv, and that doesnt tell half of the story.

[haseo15]

Manning could always re-work his deal like he did this last contract to resign Addai. Which would not hurt the cap as much.

[WSO]

It's always refreshing to read lines like this - completely ignoring the uncertainty surrounding Luck and his abilities to lead us to the playoffs in 11 of the next 13 seasons :hmm:

And it is completely devastating to listen to all the "it's just business crap". Being fan of a team goes far beyond the so-called business. If you do not see that you have got a very weird perception of being a fan (maybe this is due to your strange culture of missing relegation and promotion and the lack of experiencing the highs and lows that comes with them). IF Manning's healthy then I do not see any reason why he should not be able to play 3 or 4 years at a very high level. At least higher than a rookie QB. And I really cannot imagine that there won't be any other rookie QB that might help the Colts as well in the next 2 or 3 drafts.

Man, the next 3 months will be pure drama. I hate drama!!!

it IS a business decision, the entire NFL is a business decision. If you're the owner of a billion dollar franchse you do whats best for your business and its long term future. Not what 'feels right' or based off any 'gut feeling'.

Joe Montana won 4 Super Bowls and was shown the door in the early 90's in favor of Steve Young after two injury ridden seasons. It was a brilliant move on the 49ers part as Young lead them to a SB and became a HOF QB. Montana had two average seasons with the Chiefs.

[pacolts56]

So because two players didn't spark an unnecessary flame, or create controversy from nothing by saying they CAN'T coexist, that's proof that they WANT to? What are they supposed to say? Big time QB's have to say the right things at all times.

Manning and Irsay have both been quoted as stating that Peyton will suit up and play in 2012.

Experts familiar with, and around the situation have stated Manning is not only seeing the physiological regeneration associated with a successful surgery, but that he will regain the strength that was lost 4 years ago when he took the hit in Washington.

I know some of you want to be rid of Manning in the hopes that Luck will become Aaron Rodgers (who's back up just proved he (Rodgers) may not even be the best QB on that team), but the evidence we have points to #18 calling the plays at the line for the remainder of his contract.

Doogan....if Matt Flynn is really THAT good we should immediately cut Peyton Manning, trade the Andrew Luck pick and sign Flynn.

And Ted Thompson's credentials as a GM should never be questioned again by the Brett Favre cult.

[PolkHigh33]

it IS a business decision, the entire NFL is a business decision. If you're the owner of a billion dollar franchse you do whats best for your business and its long term future. Not what 'feels right' or based off any 'gut feeling'.

Wait a minute. Wasn't it Irsay just yesterday who said that firing the Polians was somewhat "intuitive"? Thus, I don't get your point.

[Bond Shane]

Manning could always re-work his deal like he did this last contract to resign Addai. Which would not hurt the cap as much.

Why the heck should he the one to take cuts. Just because he makes more money.

Ever wondered why he makes more money?. Because he deserves it. He is not a charity. He got his own life. The guy has done enough taking cuts. He single-handedly got tourism, stadium, crowds to the game for last 10+ years.

Lets stop talking him taking cuts.

Why dont you pay extra 100 dollars for every game you watch?.

[WSO]

Wait a minute. Wasn't it Irsay just yesterday who said that firing the Polians was somewhat "intuitive"? Thus, I don't get your point.

I'm talking about Manning and yet you're talking about Polian. Regardless if Irsay does bring back Manning based on an "intuitive" decision, it won't necessarily mean it was the right choice. Even though Irsay said it was intuitive to fire Polian, there was a lot of evidence for his firing like the 2-14 season, riding Mannings shoulders for over a decade, recent poor drafting by him and his son etc. So while he can call it intuitive, it made sense to fire Polian even from a logical standpoint. To add to that, I doubt Irsay would say something along the lines of "I fired Polian because he was imcompetent, has not surrounded Manning with enough talent, etc. blah blah". He knew the guy for 3 decades. He was going to keep it classy.

[a06cc]

In my opinion we're going to keep Peyton Manning for a long time. If we draft Luck he will sit. He isn't NFL ready, no one is in their first year. Either way we have a great situation not a tuff one.

[Peyton and Eli fan]

In my opinion we're going to keep Peyton Manning for a long time. If we draft Luck he will sit. He isn't NFL ready, no one is in their first year. Either way we have a great situation not a tuff one.

Cam Newton and Andy Dalton aren't NFL ready.

What you have is drama, and plenty of it.

[WSO]

In my opinion we're going to keep Peyton Manning for a long time. If we draft Luck he will sit. He isn't NFL ready, no one is in their first year. Either way we have a great situation not a tuff one.

#1 overall picks are usually NFL ready, especially Andrew Luck considering he plays in a pro-style offense.

[MAC]

$50M invested in 2 QBs is gonna be hard to swallow even for Irsay. Expect ticket prices to go up this year.

Where are you getting that number from? Mannings cap hit is 18 I think, and Lucks would be a fraction of that. The two combined will be less than what Peytons cap hit would have been if he'd been franchised.

[WSO]

Where are you getting that number from? Mannings cap hit is 18 I think, and Lucks would be a fraction of that. The two combined will be less than what Peytons cap hit would have been if he'd been franchised.

I think he is talking about Mannings salary+bonus AND lucks salary combined which would be about 40M-50M You're right though the cap hit is about 16m

[deedub75]

Where are you getting that number from? Mannings cap hit is 18 I think, and Lucks would be a fraction of that. The two combined will be less than what Peytons cap hit would have been if he'd been franchised.

$50M has been said all day on ESPN by multiple people but they weren't talking cap hit. I think they're talking about the total outlay of cash for Manning's $28M bonus, Manning's 2012 salary, and Luck's salary and signing bonus, which is a lot of cash to tie up for 2 players at the same position.

[Indra]

I think the odds of Manning returning are excellent. If you take a step back and look at the situation without all the media spin, hype, and outright fabrications, you'll see that this situation really isn't that complicated. Manning wants to be here, he has always said as much, he loves this team, he loves ownership, he lives in Indianapolis, just had kids here, and he wants to stay here. He knows that this is his team, and nobody, not even Luck, is going to take it away from him until he's ready to give it up. He's not some irrational 1st year player, he knows the business side of football and he knows the Colts have to plan for the future, and that involves taking his successor in the draft. He knows the Colts have a great opportunity here, one that doesn't come along very often, and they have to capitalize. The Colts are in a very good situation right now. Manning will restructure, play for as long as he wants (didn't he say he was only going to play for 5 more years a few years ago?) and he'll retire when he's ready.