Speculation Thread: What do you think happened at Deflategate? (Merge)

[da_pats_troll]

Where does it say the Colts footballs lost pressure? I have not seen any of the data from either side, only that it was reported that the 11 of the 12 footballs the Patriots use in the first half were more that 2psi under-inflated and that the 12th football was still less than 12.5psi. I would like to see the data on the Patriots and Colts footballs when they were initially tested before the game, at half time and since they switched out the Patriots footballs at halftime, what was the psi data after the game. Also, even if one was to accept the point of the Colts footballs were at the upper limit, how was it that the Patriots footballs lost over 2psi but the Colts footballs lost at most 1psi?

 

That's part of the problem. I dont think the league has the numbers for the starting psi's. They are to be tested, but we dont know if those #'s are logged. Gas laws say they lost pressure, that fact is inescapable. 

 

The point of the discussion that OffensivlyPC and I had was to see what pressures balls would drop to based on what we do know. It shows that balls that were legal at the start of the game would be at least 1.1 to 0.2 psi below the lowest allowable (12.5) psi  with the reported game time temperature by half time.

 

With the 2 psi report being changed to "closer to 1" as was "leaked" later, and up to 1.1 psi can be accounted by the change in temperature..well, gives us lots to banter back and forth

[bababooey]

who cares? the PATS could have beaten the Colts with a bowling ball

I think you're about 24 pages and 3 threads late...

[jackinbox]

The only way the theory works for the Pats is if the Colts balls were inflated to 13.5 and the Pats to 12.5 prior to gametime.  

[Blue Horseshoe]

who cares? the PATS could have beaten the Colts with a bowling ball

 

Which would be another illegal football and cheating once again.

[Carl Dzienkiewicz]

I think you're about 24 pages and 3 threads late...

 

I think you're about 24 pages and 3 threads late...

 

 

I think you're about 24 pages and 3 threads late...better late than never

 

 

I think you're about 24 pages and 3 threads late...

[Narcosys]

The problem is the league already has a penalty set for tampering with footballs. It's a 25k fine.

[da_pats_troll]

The problem is the league already has a penalty set for tampering with footballs. It's a 25k fine.

 

Actually, its worded, "but not limited to". So it can be more.

[Blue Horseshoe]

The problem is the league already has a penalty set for tampering with footballs. It's a 25k fine.

 

It also has a penalty set for unnecessary roughness but it has levied plenty of high dollar fines for it beyond the 15 yard penalty defined in the rules.

[Cynjin]

Which high school. I'm pretty familiar with them all as I coached a lot of summer baseball ( both Connie Mack and Babe Ruth) for high school aged kids. Then I did a college age team , so had players from various Syracuse high schools. Plus my son attended Manlius and we played mostly teams from Syracuse

I went to Nottingham High School, no baseball for me, just football, volleyball and lacrosse.

[Cynjin]

who cares? the PATS could have beaten the Colts with a bowling ball

A better question is why are you back?

[jvan1973]

we don't have that info. Only that they met the spec between 12.5 and 13.5 psi. a ball @ 13.5 psi would drop to 12.3 psi under the same conditions. Not exactly in the spec, but within the margin of error that they could be said to be in compliance.

you're assuming the colts balls were at the max pressure, and they still dropped below allowable psi. What if they were also 12.5 pregame?

[da_pats_troll]

you're assuming the colts balls were at the max pressure, and they still dropped below allowable psi. What if they were also 12.5 pregame?

 

There are 2 things that could happen. One is reasonable, and one requires a tin hat.

 

The reasonable one is that the colts balls were @ 13.5 and deflated to just below 12.5

 

The tin hat is..they too were @ 12.5 and also deflated....(yes, I know what the nfl said...thats why this one is a "tin hat" )

 

I know what your trying to say, and you cant argue physics. Air pressure goes down in a ball when temperature does. If the Colts balls were below 13.5 psi, then they would of been below 12.3 psi at half time.

 

I dont know why you are fighting this. This is not my speculation, or me making up numbers, its stuff that's been taught in high schools and university's for years. Boyle's Law, which the other gas laws are based on, was published in 1662. Gay-Lussac's law, which is the one that applies here, was published in 1809.

 

Thats how long this science has been around.

[jvan1973]

There are 2 things that could happen. One is reasonable, and one requires a tin hat.

The reasonable one is that the colts balls were @ 13.5 and deflated to just below 12.5

The tin hat is..they too were @ 12.5 and also deflated....(yes, I know what the nfl said...thats why this one is a "tin hat" )

I know what your trying to say, and you cant argue physics. Air pressure goes down in a ball when temperature does. If the Colts balls were below 13.5 psi, then they would of been below 12.3 psi at half time.

I dont know why you are fighting this. This is not my speculation, or me making up numbers, its stuff that's been taught in high schools and university's for years. Boyle's Law, which the other gas laws are based on, was published in 1662. Gay-Lussac's law, which is the one that applies here, was published in 1809.

Thats how long this science has been around.

you understand you can't use fahrenheit or celsius in that equation right?

[da_pats_troll]

you understand you can't use fahrenheit or celsius in that equation right?

 

And if you had looked @ the post with the math in it, you would realize I didn't use those.

[dw49]

I went to Nottingham High School, no baseball for me, just football, volleyball and lacrosse.

 

They had an infield that was all ground stone like. No grass what so ever. Could rain 10 inches and you could go out with a whisk broom and play baseball in 30 minutes. I mean .. terrible crap to play baseball on but easy on the baseball coaches. Nottingham had good football and basketball right ?

[jvan1973]

And if you had looked @ the post with the math in it, you would realize I didn't use those.

I'm not going back threw this whole thread to find that post. Did you use psi or did you convert that to pascal?

[ricker182]

who cares? the PATS could have beaten the Colts with a bowling ball

That's beside the point. You don't cheat.

[ricker182]

The problem is the league already has a penalty set for tampering with footballs. It's a 25k fine.

Not limited to $25,000.

[Hoosier]

Would like to see the tapes (if they still exist) of this guy to see if he always takes the balls into the bathroom with him (aside from the fact it's disgusting) during home games.

This is an *excellent* point.

Peter King reported today that the investigators are looking beyond the 11 balls, back to the whole season, and possibly farther. If the footage still exists, I have no doubt that they will look into this very thing you mentioned.

Even if the footage doesn't exist (say, from the Ravens game), they've brought in a company that specializes in digital forensics.

If there's something they want to find, they'll find it.

[bababooey]

This is an *excellent* point.

Peter King reported today that the investigators are looking beyond the 11 balls, back to the whole season, and possibly farther. If the footage still exists, I have no doubt that they will look into this very thing you mentioned.

Even if the footage doesn't exist (say, from the Ravens game), they've brought in a company that specializes in digital forensics.

If there's something they want to find, they'll find it.

I am sooo convinced the NFL and investigators are going to fudge this up. No matter - it's the same thing as OJ Simpson in the public's eyes. Would love for them to get caught so bad. Although I'm sure the Patriots are probably trying to furiously delete every single file like Arthur Anderson during Enron.

[ColtsBlueFL]

who cares? the PATS could have beaten the Colts with a bowling ball

 

How about the Ravens the week before?

 

This isn't about beating the Colts in the AFCCG.  It's about using tactics that give them an advantage, whether it is needed or not.  It is speculated they have been doing this awhile, and a lot.  Possibly since the beginning of 2007 season, judging by team fumbling data.  What about all of the other teams that lost skin of their teeth close?

[Cynjin]

They had an infield that was all ground stone like. No grass what so ever. Could rain 10 inches and you could go out with a whisk broom and play baseball in 30 minutes. I mean .. terrible crap to play baseball on but easy on the baseball coaches. Nottingham had good football and basketball right ?

Back when I was there they were okay in football, but very good in basketball (class B). Honestly, I tried to remember the baseball field but it has been awhile, so I don't really remember what it was like.

[ColtsBlueFL]

The problem is the league already has a penalty set for tampering with footballs. It's a 25k fine.

No, it's $25k or more (not limited to) which could mean other disciplinary actions.

 

“Once the balls have left the locker room, no one, including players, equipment managers, ball boys, and coaches, is allowed to alter the footballs in any way. If any individual alters the footballs, or if a non-approved ball is used in the game, the person responsible and, if appropriate, the head coach or other club personnel will be subject to discipline, including but not limited to, a fine of $25,000.”

[da_pats_troll]

I'm not going back threw this whole thread to find that post. Did you use psi or did you convert that to pascal?

 

psia. Since it a proportional formula, conversion to pascal is not needed. They are both measure of mass per area. If you do convert, and then convert back to psia you get the same outcome.

 

http://forums.colts.com/topic/35232-speculation-thread-what-do-you-think-happened-at-deflategate-merge/?p=1022102

 

No need to hunt.

[da_pats_troll]

How about the Ravens the week before?

 

This isn't about beating the Colts in the AFCCG.  It's about using tactics that give them an advantage, whether it is needed or not.  It is speculated they have been doing this awhile, and a lot.  Possibly since the beginning of 2007 season, judging by team fumbling data.  What about all of the other teams that lost skin of their teeth close?

 

It was a low of 23 that nite. The balls would of been flat  

[Hoosier]

who cares? the PATS could have beaten the Colts with a bowling ball

 

 

[Carl Dzienkiewicz]

How about the Ravens the week before?

 

This isn't about beating the Colts in the AFCCG.  It's about using tactics that give them an advantage, whether it is needed or not.  It is speculated they have been doing this awhile, and a lot.  Possibly since the beginning of 2007 season, judging by team fumbling data.  What about all of the other teams that lost skin of their teeth close? as belichick turned around laughing

[Carl Dzienkiewicz]

A better question is why are you back?to laff at fans like you who believe in mirages

[Carl Dzienkiewicz]

The pats are doing the same thing AL DAVIS and the RAIDERS did 30 years ago.The NFL did nothing back then,they"ll do nothing now.Game is over. COLTS and LUCK are a joke.Move on and stop crying.

[ColtsBlueFL]

That's part of the problem. I dont think the league has the numbers for the starting psi's. They are to be tested, but we dont know if those #'s are logged. Gas laws say they lost pressure, that fact is inescapable. 

 

The point of the discussion that OffensivlyPC and I had was to see what pressures balls would drop to based on what we do know. It shows that balls that were legal at the start of the game would be at least 1.1 to 0.2 psi below the lowest allowable (12.5) psi  with the reported game time temperature by half time.

 

With the 2 psi report being changed to "closer to 1" as was "leaked" later, and up to 1.1 psi can be accounted by the change in temperature..well, gives us lots to banter back and forth

 

I missed your math, but I assume you and offensivelyPC used Amonton's Law of Pressure-Temperature, converted pressure to absolute (likely adding in 14.7) then converting to Kilopascals and using converting F temp to degrees Kelvin.

 

P₂  = (P₁  / T₁ ) × T_{2           179.9 kpa}   = (187.5 kpa / 294 K) × 282 K        1.2 psi =  26 psi -14.7 psi

 

whereby a ball that was set in a 70 degree F room and brought out to the 48 degree outdoor temps could lose about 1.2 psi.

 

But they didn't measure them in 48 degree air did they?  Did they not bring them back inside?  How long does it take for them to regain the room temp pressure?  and 1.2 psi would make Colts balls (even if at ragged edge max of 13.5 psi pre game)  @ 12.3 psi, which is also under inflated.  We also do not know what kind of equipment is mandated by the league to inflate and measure, and what equipment the Patriots supplied to the NFL officials to perform those duties.  But I feel if the pressure rules and their setting and guarding of the balls that important, that they absolutely must be, or henceforth start using this item-

 

http://www.tequipment.net/Martel/1919402/?utm_source=Bing_Yahoo&utm_medium=cpc&utm_campaign=Shopping_Campaign

 

Accurate auto temperature compensation from  0 - 50 C , accuracy to 0.04%  !!      No more DeflateGate.   Get them now NFL!! And have guards deliver balls from the guarded officials locker room to the teams sidelines 5 minutes before kickoff, and have NFL cameras focused on them at all times thereafter throughout the game.

 

If the rule is that important, then measures to ensure it should be as well, IMHO. and, who is to say they are not already?  Ted Wells report will spare no effort to bare all details I'm sure.

[da_pats_troll]

I missed your math, but I assume you and offensivelyPC used Amonton's Law of Pressure-Temperature, converted pressure to absolute (likely adding in 14.7) then converting to Kilopascals and using converting F temp to degrees Kelvin.

 

P₂  = (P₁  / T₁ ) × T_{2           179.9 kpa}   = (187.5 kpa / 294 K) × 282 K        1.2 psi =  26 psi -14.7 psi

 

whereby a ball that was set in a 70 degree F room and brought out to the 48 degree outdoor temps could lose about 1.2 psi.

 

But they didn't measure them in 48 degree air did they?  Did they not bring them back inside?  How long does it take for them to regain the room temp pressure?  and 1.2 psi would make Colts balls (even if at ragged edge max of 13.5 psi pre game)  @ 12.3 psi, which is also under inflated.  We also do not know what kind of equipment is mandated by the league to inflate and measure, and what equipment the Patriots supplied to the NFL officials to perform those duties.  But I feel if the pressure rules and their setting and guarding of the balls that important, that they absolutely must be, or henceforth start using this item-

 

http://www.tequipment.net/Martel/1919402/?utm_source=Bing_Yahoo&utm_medium=cpc&utm_campaign=Shopping_Campaign

 

Accurate auto temperature compensation from  0 - 50 C , accuracy to 0.04%  !!      No more DeflateGate.   Get them now NFL!! And have guards deliver balls from the guarded officials locker room to the teams sidelines 5 minutes before kickoff, and have NFL cameras focused on them at all times thereafter throughout the game.

 

If the rule is that important, then measures to ensure it should be as well, IMHO.

 

Your numbers agree exactly with the ones we did. 

 

You're correct, we dont know where/when the second measurement was taken, and what it was measured with. The original discussion was just to prove that temperature alone could account for a bigger drop then alot of people would believe. 

 

If they did not use a temperature compensating gauge, how long the balls were allowed to sit and warm back up is a very crucial piece of information. 

 

One observation, if they did not use a compensating gauge, and did the measurements cold, the colts balls at best would of been @ 12.3 psi as you noted. If the gauge's accuracy is +- .2 psi, that's another kettle of fish that will make the whole matter even worse.

[OffensivelyPC]

who cares? the PATS could have beaten the Colts with a bowling ball

please, try to keep up.

[ColtsBlueFL]

Your numbers agree exactly with the ones we did. 

 

You're correct, we dont know where/when the second measurement was taken, and what it was measured with. The original discussion was just to prove that temperature alone could account for a bigger drop then alot of people would believe. 

 

If they did not use a temperature compensating gauge, how long the balls were allowed to sit and warm back up is a very crucial piece of information. 

 

One observation, if they did not use a compensating gauge, and did the measurements cold, the colts balls at best would of been @ 12.3 psi as you noted. If the gauge's accuracy is +- .2 psi, that's another kettle of fish that will make the whole matter even worse.

 

I was going to try to find an accuweather temp tracking for Foxboro that night for halftime temp, and see i I could find the atmospheric pressure in millibars and convert to psi for absolute pressure correction. Then I realized I'd never ever get the exact temp from the officials locker room, so just plugged and played numbers in the ball park.  LOL

 

I ho[e the Wells reports details every aspect.  The league needs beefy measures for beefy rules.

[Cynjin]

A better question is why are you back?to laff at fans like you who believe in mirages

I do not believe in mirages, but I do believe you have nothing intelligent to contribute.

[Cynjin]

The pats are doing the same thing AL DAVIS and the RAIDERS did 30 years ago.The NFL did nothing back then,they"ll do nothing now.Game is over. COLTS and LUCK are a joke.Move on and stop crying.

A better idea would be for you to move on and stop posting.

[OffensivelyPC]

 

A better question is why are you back?to laff at fans like you who believe in mirages

 

You know why no one takes your 6 year old posts seriously?  Because you can't even use the quote function without screwing it up.

[AndreRison]

http://www.advancedfootballanalytics.com/index.php/home/research/weather/222-deflate-gate-and-pv-t-k#kmt-529

[ColtsBlueFL]

Your numbers agree exactly with the ones we did. 

 

You're correct, we dont know where/when the second measurement was taken, and what it was measured with. The original discussion was just to prove that temperature alone could account for a bigger drop then alot of people would believe. 

 

If they did not use a temperature compensating gauge, how long the balls were allowed to sit and warm back up is a very crucial piece of information. 

 

One observation, if they did not use a compensating gauge, and did the measurements cold, the colts balls at best would of been @ 12.3 psi as you noted. If the gauge's accuracy is +- .2 psi, that's another kettle of fish that will make the whole matter even worse.

Of course I messed up in my post (I tend to think faster than I can type) and did not show all my work when I subtracted the 14.7 from 26 to get 11.3, which is Then how I got to 1.2 psi low.   But you (probably saw through that and) got the jist...

 

We don't know all the particulars of measurement after the game had stated, nor equipment used.  And as you point out, calibration and accuracy are paramount when you talk a legal range from min to max of 1.0 psi. and when, where, and how long after brought in from outdors figures in as well.  So without details, it's all just specualtion.  but we all know more aboutt footballs than I ever thought I would. LOL

[Indianapolis-Colts-Fan]

This article is the most in depth article I have read on this subject. And honestly it is kind of scary how things look through the eyes of this writer.

"I actually went back and researched 5 year periods for the entire NFL over the last 25 years. The Patriots ratio of 187 plays to 1 fumble is the BEST of ANY team in the NFL for ANY 5 year span of time over the last 25 years. Not was it just the best, it wasn’t close:

2010-2014 Patriots: 187 plays/fumble

2009-2013 Patriots: 156 plays/fumble

2006-2010 Colts: 156 plays/fumble

2005-2009 Colts: 153 plays/fumble

2007-2011 Patriots: 149 plays/fumble

2008-2012 Patriots: 148 plays/fumble

2010-2014 Texans: 140 plays/fumble

2004-2008 Colts: 139 plays/fumble

2006-2010 Jets: 135 plays/fumble

1999-2003 Chiefs: 134 plays/fumble"

If you read this article it makes you wonder if the patriots have in fact been deflating footballs. But for how long?

http://www.sharpfootballanalysis.com/blog/2015/the-new-england-patriots-prevention-of-fumbles-is-nearly-impossible

Would also recommend reading the follow up article:

http://www.sharpfootballanalysis.com/blog/2015/new-england-patriots-fumble-more-often-when-playing-for-other-teams

[-JJ-]

Well yeah if you fumble you get benched.....