Is The Pick's Value Not What It Used To Be?

[jgstriker]

Three weeks ago, Luck was THE guy that all NFL and college talking heads were discussing. Now he has had two pedestrian weeks while Barkley and RG3 have soared up the draft boards.

If Luck were to finish out the season with a pedestrian couple of games and the other quarterbacks continued to impress, do we pretty much HAVE to take him first overall?

I am thinking he will be ours, regardless, but the value of that pick might really be dropping with him having some very ordinary performances as of late. He is still the best qb... but hasn't appeared to be superman. You might not have any option but to take him now. Thoughts?

[Jason_]

Three weeks ago, Luck was THE guy that all NFL and college talking heads were discussing. Now he has had two pedestrian weeks while Barkley and RG3 have soared up the draft boards.

If Luck were to finish out the season with a pedestrian couple of games and the other quarterbacks continued to impress, do we pretty much HAVE to take him first overall?

I am thinking he will be ours, regardless, but the value of that pick might really be dropping with him having some very ordinary performances as of late. He is still the best qb... but hasn't appeared to be superman. You might not have any option but to take him now. Thoughts?

EJ Manuel has also moved up and there are now 6 QBs in top 35 players ranked on cbssports.com. Landry Jones has dropped but is still in the top 25. Brandon Weeden has dropped out of the top 30 and Nick Foles has moved up from 151 to 104 and after the combine I expect him to move up even higher. I wonder what the record is for most QBs taken in the first round and the first 2 rounds because a new record could be set in 2012.

No I don't think he's a "must draft" player at this point. If the FO bring in all QBs and determine that Luck is the best then they could take him. They could grade Barkley higher and with him continuing to impress, he could wind up being the #1 pick because it's becoming less likely that we'd be able to trade down to #2 and still grab Barkley.

The FO will have to find out what Peyton's health looks like at the time of the draft, and then 1) decide if QB is a must draft position in this draft and 2) if so, then bring in all QB prospects and decide which one they want to target. Not all teams are going to grade each QB the same it could wind up being a team still willing to move up for Luck, or even for Barkley at #1 if they feel that QB is THAT much better than the rest. We may however have to decide on either Luck or Barkley or be willing to trade down further than previously expected. With the hype that was Luck a few weeks ago, it was definitely possible we might be able to move down only one or two draft positions but the way things are heading now that may not be the case. That doesn't mean we still couldn't trade down to say the early to mid teens and still get a lot of quality players and in doing so we'd likely get more draft picks in compensation for moving down further.

Lots of possibilities and the remaining few weeks of the college season as well as the combine could shake things up even further. This could be one of the most interesting and exciting offseasons in a long time.

[willysp]

Three weeks ago, Luck was THE guy that all NFL and college talking heads were discussing. Now he has had two pedestrian weeks while Barkley and RG3 have soared up the draft boards.

If Luck were to finish out the season with a pedestrian couple of games and the other quarterbacks continued to impress, do we pretty much HAVE to take him first overall?

I am thinking he will be ours, regardless, but the value of that pick might really be dropping with him having some very ordinary performances as of late. He is still the best qb... but hasn't appeared to be superman. You might not have any option but to take him now. Thoughts?

Polian is a contraian - who knows who he'll pick? I half-way expect him to pick somebody besides Luck just to show us fans that he's smarter that we are. (And that attitude has worked quite well in recent years hasn't it?

[oldunclemark]

Polian is a contraian - who knows who he'll pick? I half-way expect him to pick somebody besides Luck just to show us fans that he's smarter that we are. (And that attitude has worked quite well in recent years hasn't it?

willy is right about that..

Polian..thinks he's a genius like Cam thinks he's SuperMan

[ace_6900]

Even though Luck had 2 pedestrian games his value has not waned at all, he is still the clear cut #1. Just think how good he would be if he had some receivers or anywhere near the talent USC has, Give him robert Woods and Kalil and lets just see how good he really is.

[oldunclemark]

Even though Luck had 2 pedestrian games his value has not waned at all, he is still the clear cut #1. Just think how good he would be if he had some receivers or anywhere near the talent USC has, Give him robert Woods and Kalil and lets just see how good he really is.

I have to be honest

He does not look like someone who would be a capable QB Of the Colts next year...

[MCurtis32]

I have to be honest

He does not look like someone who would be a capable QB Of the Colts next year...

How capable was Manning his first year? They won what 3 games? Lets face it. Colts are rebuilding next year with or without Manning. The time is right to tighten up.

[chad72]

If Peyton is even 80-90% healthy, as a GM, I will take the chance to draft Luck and trade him to an NFC team like the Redskins. Then, try to gather a couple of first rounders and second rounders and get a QB with one of those 4 picks.

That has been Polian's modus operandi - trading Faulk to the Rams for a 2nd & a 5th while the Dolphins offered a 1st, Polian wanted to get Faulk out of the AFC. Lo behold, Faulk wins the SB in a couple of years, oops .

[chad72]

How capable was Manning his first year? They won what 3 games? Lets face it. Colts are rebuilding next year with or without Manning. The time is right to tighten up.

But Manning at least moved the chains more often than Painter or Collins did. Despite throwing 28 INTs, he put up enough points on the board to give us 3 wins. Of course, we are talking a huge talent level difference there .

[deedub75]

I don't understand why people are doubting Luck. I can only assume that people are so in love with Manning that they can't see the forest for the trees. Luck is having a season comparable to last season, if not better. He has a 70.3% pass completion, 34 TDs and 8 INTs. Peyton never got close to 70% and he threw more INTs in college. Luck also comes from a pretty good football pedigree, just like Manning. I'm not saying Luck is guaranteed to be an NFL success but he is very similar to Manning. It says a lot about a person when he decided to stay in college to finish his degree rather than be selected as the #1 overall pick in the draft. Manning did that also. Luck also consulted with Manning about his decision to stay in college to finish his degree. They are both very similar.

[Duolian]

I would hope that the smart people in the draft room have the sense to judge players' potential on their entire body of work, and not be swayed by this game or that game. I imagine the tape on Luck goes all the way back to high school, where all of his attributes and development can be evaluated over a long period of time. Toss out a few completely over-the-top performances, along with a few stinkers. Then view what's left as a more representative sample of what you might be getting for your money. The alternative would be to just wait for the national championship game, and draft the MVP as your top pick. You could get lucky and end up with a Leinert or Young to build around.

[chad72]

I would hope that the smart people in the draft room have the sense to judge players' potential on their entire body of work, and not be swayed by this game or that game. I imagine the tape on Luck goes all the way back to high school, where all of his attributes and development can be evaluated over a long period of time. Toss out a few completely over-the-top performances, along with a few stinkers. Then view what's left as a more representative sample of what you might be getting for your money. The alternative would be to just wait for the national championship game, and draft the MVP as your top pick. You could get lucky and end up with a Leinert or Young to build around.

True. The whole body of work has always mattered to the Polians. Ryan Leaf did gain momentum around draft time, just like Matt Barkley. Yep, Manning did not have quite the arm that Ryan Leaf had. The rest is history. It is like deja vu with Luck vs Barkley to me. I sure hope Barkley is not the next Ryan Leaf, which I doubt he will but Luck has the chance to be the next Manning, it is a chance I am willing to take

[Jay305]

RG3 to me has waaay more upside than Luck and I would rather trade down get more picks and him.

[Jason_]

Even though Luck had 2 pedestrian games his value has not waned at all, he is still the clear cut #1. Just think how good he would be if he had some receivers or anywhere near the talent USC has, Give him robert Woods and Kalil and lets just see how good he really is.

Wow really? That's the game we're playing? Ok Barkley has Kalil...but Luck has Jonathan Martin and David DeCastro. I'll give you that Woods is better than Osusu but Owusu isn't exactly a slouch, though he is hurt at the moment. And Luck has Fleener, Ertz and Toilolo, 3 TEs that are pretty much uncoverable so these are far better 2nd, 3rd and 4th options than Barkley has.

[Gonzo]

Luck plays for a top 10 team. I'm not buying the poor mr. luck has no talent around him argument.

I didn't see his heroics in the USC game and he still has opportunity to impress me against Notre Dame or in his bowl game. But even his staunchest supporters have to admit he looked less then the dominant once-in-a-generation prospect he's been said to be against Oregon and Cal.

[Gonzo]

Also: In before the move to NFL draft section!

[deedub75]

Luck plays for a top 10 team. I'm not buying the poor mr. luck has no talent around him argument.

I didn't see his heroics in the USC game and he still has opportunity to impress me against Notre Dame or in his bowl game. But even his staunchest supporters have to admit he looked less then the dominant once-in-a-generation prospect he's been said to be against Oregon and Cal.

Kind of like Manning vs Florida, huh?

[Deano1818]

We have to rebuild

This will probably mean another subpar year

We had better NOT miss on the early picks we are going to get

[swflacoltsfans]

Until it is known if Peyton will be back it is all a bunch of bla bla bla much like listening to a politician.

[ace_6900]

I just want Peyton back plus alot of picks for Luck and dip into free agency to try to win it one more time with PM.

[dn4192]

Luck plays for a top 10 team. I'm not buying the poor mr. luck has no talent around him argument.

I didn't see his heroics in the USC game and he still has opportunity to impress me against Notre Dame or in his bowl game. But even his staunchest supporters have to admit he looked less then the dominant once-in-a-generation prospect he's been said to be against Oregon and Cal.

Huh? He throws a pick six with the game winding down, which would probably ment game over for most college QB's. But instead Luck comes back out, shruggs off the pick six and drives his team down the field for a tying TD to send the game to OT I believe. That is what makes Luck different, he has the mental abilities (very much like Peyton) and the physical tools to be a possible good to great QB in the NFL.

[Gonzo]

Kind of like Manning vs Florida, huh?

Sure. But the fact that Manning couldn't get it done against Florida was hardly a selling point. It was a legitimate cause for concern, we drafted him first anyway and it worked out. Maybe the same thing happens with Luck.

He'll probably have a successful NFL career given the sheer number of people who know significantly more about football then I do who say it'll happen. But hey, I thought the same would be true for Tim Couch. And so did alot of experts who knew significantly more about football then I do.

Huh? He throws a pick six with the game winding down, which would probably ment game over for most college QB's. But instead Luck comes back out, shruggs off the pick six and drives his team down the field for a tying TD to send the game to OT I believe. That is what makes Luck different, he has the mental abilities (very much like Peyton) and the physical tools to be a possible good to great QB in the NFL.

Same deal. It's nice that he rallied them, but it's generally more impressive to not throw a pick in the first place. His poor play in the first half almost cost Stanford against an inferior 6-5 Cal team. He's won alot of games. If we draft him I'll be his biggest fan. But I'm not convinced that he's our best move at this point.

[Redskins fan]

The picks "value" was always going to be an Eli Manning like trade-not a Hershel Walker/Ricky Williams like trade

1) There aren't any stupid GMs like that anymore. Vinny Cerrato is gone

2) More then likey there will be a great class of QBs this year. The question for the Redskins, Seahawks, Dolphins and Browns is this: "Is Andrew Luck worth more then RG3/Barkley/Jones/Tannenhill+the picks we would keep by not trading up for Luck"

Bet the farm on Andrew Luck? Or take your chances by still getting a pretty good QB (and in the case of RG3 a potentially great QB) and add players around him

[runthepost]

IMO if we draft luck and dont trade him and have the same team with peyton we would go 6-10 to 8-8. If we draft luck and trade him to a team like the browns or dolphins we could get morris claiborne who is better the pat peterson. This helps our secondary alot.

Mock Draft with Browns

8th Morris Claiborne CB LSU -- 1st round

19th David DeCastro G Sanford-- 1st round

33th Dontari Poe NT Memphis-- 2nd round

41st Kirk Cousins QB Michigan St-- 2nd round

65th Coryell Judie CB Texas A&M-- 3rd round

4th round best S

5th round best Wr

6th round best C

7th round best TE

This is what I believe the colts should do.

[Andy]

I think the Bowl game he'll have will be the all deciding factor. Remember Jamarcus Russell and Brady Quinn...

[wordofmouth]

The picks "value" was always going to be an Eli Manning like trade-not a Hershel Walker/Ricky Williams like trade

1) There aren't any stupid GMs like that anymore. Vinny Cerrato is gone

2) More then likey there will be a great class of QBs this year. The question for the Redskins, Seahawks, Dolphins and Browns is this: "Is Andrew Luck worth more then RG3/Barkley/Jones/Tannenhill+the picks we would keep by not trading up for Luck"

Bet the farm on Andrew Luck? Or take your chances by still getting a pretty good QB (and in the case of RG3 a potentially great QB) and add players around him

Welcome Redskins Fan.

I think you are right. That fact that there are so many highly rated QB's and not a lot of teams that are desperate at that possition suggests, to me , that we may not be able to get a kings ransom for Luck. GM's are not swayed by the media hype.

The good news is that with the new CBA the first over all pick is less of a financial gamble so that definitely adds value, and if we end up drafting him ourselves he will be less of a cap burden even if we have him sit behind Manning.

[GrizzColt]

I predict that Andrew Luck will cement his top status by being more accurate than everybody else in his prod days and that includes RG3 who is accurate also. Scouts and coaches have said that Luck is the ONLY college QB who is calling his own plays at the line of scrimmage ala Peyton Manning on a routine basis. Luck in college = Manning in college. I am a Miss. State grad and I saw Manning play a lot in the SEC. Manning didn't wow anybody with his arm strength at Tennessee. He routinely outsmarted defenses. They look like the same guy to me. Vince Young was/is weak mentally. Leinart is a partier who doesn't take it serious. Luck is not any of those things.

[deedub75]

I predict that Andrew Luck will cement his top status by being more accurate than everybody else in his prod days and that includes RG3 who is accurate also. Scouts and coaches have said that Luck is the ONLY college QB who is calling his own plays at the line of scrimmage ala Peyton Manning on a routine basis. Luck in college = Manning in college. I am a Miss. State grad and I saw Manning play a lot in the SEC. Manning didn't wow anybody with his arm strength at Tennessee. He routinely outsmarted defenses. They look like the same guy to me. Vince Young was/is weak mentally. Leinart is a partier who doesn't take it serious. Luck is not any of those things.

Booooo MS State! You watching the Egg Bowl on Saturday?

[BOTT]

Wow really? That's the game we're playing? Ok Barkley has Kalil...but Luck has Jonathan Martin and David DeCastro. I'll give you that Woods is better than Osusu but Owusu isn't exactly a slouch, though he is hurt at the moment. And Luck has Fleener, Ertz and Toilolo, 3 TEs that are pretty much uncoverable so these are far better 2nd, 3rd and 4th options than Barkley has.

was listening to espn radio and they were saying usc had the best skill position players in the country. don't watch enough college ball to know, but that's what they claimed. and after watching stanford a couple times, i didn't see all this talent some were talking about...but what do i know?

[Jason_]

was listening to espn radio and they were saying usc had the best skill position players in the country. don't watch enough college ball to know, but that's what they claimed. and after watching stanford a couple times, i didn't see all this talent some were talking about...but what do i know?

I could maybe see USC having the best skill position players in the Pac-12 but even that would be iffy. No way, imo, do they have the best in the entire country. Robert Woods is a great WR and Marquise Lee has been coming on of late but there are other teams with a lot more depth. As far as best WR core, Arkansas would have to be near the top.

[Gonzo]

was listening to espn radio and they were saying usc had the best skill position players in the country. don't watch enough college ball to know, but that's what they claimed. and after watching stanford a couple times, i didn't see all this talent some were talking about...but what do i know?

Stanford is ranked #4 in the nation. Surely they must have some talent.

[BOTT]

Stanford is ranked #4 in the nation. Surely they must have some talent.

didn't say the cupboard was bare...but after watching them against usc and oregon it looked like they were a big 10 team going up against a team from the sec. they just can't match the overall roster ability.

[Colts20593]

Luck doesn't have the receivers Barkley has

[doogansquest]

Even though Luck had 2 pedestrian games his value has not waned at all, he is still the clear cut #1. Just think how good he would be if he had some receivers or anywhere near the talent USC has, Give him robert Woods and Kalil and lets just see how good he really is.

Luck has a better line (2 guys guaranteed to go in the first 35 picks on the O-line), and the best TE tandem in the country. He is basically playing with the Patriots offense, and his defense does a lot more for him than does Barkley's.

Kind of like Manning vs Florida, huh?

Quite a difference when comparing going against SEC schools and Pac10/12 schools. Tennessee has never been one of the top recruiting schools in that conference; Florida, on the other hand, has been top 3 in the country for NFL prospects for almost 25 years now.

was listening to espn radio and they were saying usc had the best skill position players in the country. don't watch enough college ball to know, but that's what they claimed. and after watching stanford a couple times, i didn't see all this talent some were talking about...but what do i know?

ESPN commentators say things because they have to. USC was the premier talent in the country in 2004, but it turns out they were paying those guys to be there. They have a lot of attraction, as pretty much the only game in town on the west coast, and they demolished the few SEC teams they played in recent years. Currently, however, they have been on probation and haven't been able to divvy out the scholarships to stud athletes. Barkley is playing with less talent than Sanchez, Leinart, or Palmer.

didn't say the cupboard was bare...but after watching them against usc and oregon it looked like they were a big 10 team going up against a team from the sec. they just can't match the overall roster ability.

That's an awkward statement, because short of Ohio State, most Big10 teams have winning records against the SEC in the last 10-15 years.

[BOTT]

Luck has a better line (2 guys guaranteed to go in the first 35 picks on the O-line), and the best TE tandem in the country. He is basically playing with the Patriots offense, and his defense does a lot more for him than does Barkley's.

Quite a difference when comparing going against SEC schools and Pac10/12 schools. Tennessee has never been one of the top recruiting schools in that conference; Florida, on the other hand, has been top 3 in the country for NFL prospects for almost 25 years now.

ESPN commentators say things because they have to. USC was the premier talent in the country in 2004, but it turns out they were paying those guys to be there. They have a lot of attraction, as pretty much the only game in town on the west coast, and they demolished the few SEC teams they played in recent years. Currently, however, they have been on probation and haven't been able to divvy out the scholarships to stud athletes. Barkley is playing with less talent than Sanchez, Leinart, or Palmer.

That's an awkward statement, because short of Ohio State, most Big10 teams have winning records against the SEC in the last 10-15 years.

when you compare the top teams in the sec against the top teams in the big 10 it's quite obvious that there is a gap in talent and athletic ability....don't think there is anything awkward about saying that.

but thanks for the unnecessary commentary of the recent history of usc