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Two Trades that would change the Colts' Draft....


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So....

 

With too much time on my hand, I've come up with two trades for your consideration....   I don't know how realistic they are (meaning, would the teams we approach be interested?)  but they match-up completely on the value points chart,  so in that way,  they're completely realistic....

 

We're starting the draft with the following picks...

 

2-59/3-90/5-166/6-203/7-236....   5 total picks....

 

Now watch.

 

We offer our 2 and our 6 to Washington.

 

Our two picks total 320 points.

 

We're asking for their 3, 5, 6, 7... 

 

Their four picks total....  320 points.      We've turned two picks into four!

 

Now.... 

 

We offer Cleveland our 3 and our 5.

 

Our two picks total 165 points.

 

We're asking for BOTH of their fourth round picks (theirs, plus ours from the Hughes trade)

Plus, their 5 and their 7.

 

Their four picks total....   165 points. 

 

That's a second trade where we send out two picks and receive four back in return.

 

So....   we start the day with 5 picks and we add four more for a total of 9.

 

We end with the following picks...

 

3-66     Wash

4-106   Cleve

4-127   Indy from Cleve in 2013 draft.

5-142   Wash

5-145   Cleve

6-178   Wash

7-217   Wash

7-218   Cleve

7-236   Indy

 

I hope we can do both of these trades.... 

 

I believe them to be realistic and reasonable.   Whether Washington and Cleveland agree remains

to be seen.

 

Your thoughts?

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I would do that in this draft. We drop only 7 spots from our first pick now and pick up 4 picks before our pick at 166 by dropping 16 spots from our current 3rd. We go from having 2 picks in the top 150 to 5 wouldn't think twice about it.

 

There is a lot of talent in the top 150 of this draft and beyond.

 

Unless you want to give up players or future picks(I don't), Keep in mind it would be players that other teams want.  I don't think moving up is an option in this draft we really have nothing to move up with. I think moving down is the way to go in a deep draft this is a deep draft.

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Nice work. If we wanted to move up in the draft and retain a similar number of picks I think this would be a feasible approach. However finding a team that wants to give up their second rounder for a combo of picks that we just acquired would be hard to swing and in a small window of time at that.

 

Here is to hoping that we see several teams moving back in the draft. Those will be the teams we have on speed dial...

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Doubt it, feel the Browns would use their ridiculous ammo to get into the 1st round for a 3rd time somewhere, and most likely still have a 3rd and 4th round pick(even if it takes them a 2nd, 3rd or 4th to move up). I just feel they would have far more pretty options to do with their picks than use them to get back into the bottom of the 3rd.

Browns have:

1st Round (No. 4 Overall)

1st Round (No. 26 Overall)*

2nd Round (No. 35 Overall)

3rd Round (No. 71 Overall)

3rd Round (No. 83 Overall)*

4th Round (No. 106 Overall)

4th Round (No. 127 Overall)*

5th Round (No. 145 Overall)

6th Round (No. 180 Overall)

7th Round (No. 218 Overall)

I doubt the Washington one too

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How about this - We offer all of our picks this year to whatever team who would be willing in the first round, and would enable us to go and get Clinton-Dix or Calvin Pryor.

 

I know that would never happen, but I would prefer getting real elite talent over a bunch of players who is around the "150th - 250th best prospect in the 2014 draft" mark.

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NCF:  I looked at your scenario again and the amount of quality depth you added in pick value for rounds 4, 5, & 6 is very substantial.  You also picked realistic trade partners.  It is well thought out.  

 

For it to work, there have to be at least 4 players left on the board of equivalent BPA value to Grigs when 59 rolls around.  Plus we have to avoid the scenario where Grigs trades up into the low 50's to snag a falling star. Similar things have to happen at 90.  

 

Thus far, we have seen Grigson value players over picks on draft day - he is decisive about his convictions and would rather get the guy he believes in.  However, this may be the draft where he shows us that following his board can mean moving back and collecting picks...but I have my doubts.

 

Given the personality Grigs has shown us, its a fair assumption that he'll make a move on draft day, but it feels unlikely that our first pick will be later than 59.

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NCF:  I looked at your scenario again and the amount of quality depth you added in pick value for rounds 4, 5, & 6 is very substantial.  You also picked realistic trade partners.  It is well thought out.  

 

For it to work, there have to be at least 4 players left on the board of equivalent BPA value to Grigs when 59 rolls around.  Plus we have to avoid the scenario where Grigs trades up into the low 50's to snag a falling star. Similar things have to happen at 90.  

 

Thus far, we have seen Grigson value players over picks on draft day - he is decisive about his convictions and would rather get the guy he believes in.  However, this may be the draft where he shows us that following his board can mean moving back and collecting picks...but I have my doubts.

 

Given the personality Grigs has shown us, its a fair assumption that he'll make a move on draft day, but it feels unlikely that our first pick will be later than 59.

 

ZT....

 

You have hit on one of my fears.

 

A player Grigson loves seems to be falling to us at 59.    Not sure if he'll get all the way to us,  Grigson starts trading future picks to move up.     But future picks are going to be expensive.      Depending on how far up Grigson would want us to move,  he'd have to likely spend a future 2 to get there.     If we were lucky,  it would only have to be a 3.     But I wouldn't count on that!

 

I hope Grigson is patient. 

 

We are NOT 1 or 2 players away from a Super Bowl.    Our roster is improved,  but it's not that good!

 

Be patient and add picks/players....    Keep.    Building.    The.    Monster!!!

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ZT....

 

You have hit on one of my fears.

 

A player Grigson loves seems to be falling to us at 59.    Not sure if he'll get all the way to us,  Grigson starts trading future picks to move up.     But future picks are going to be expensive.      Depending on how far up Grigson would want us to move,  he'd have to likely spend a future 2 to get there.     If we were lucky,  it would only have to be a 3.     But I wouldn't count on that!

 

I hope Grigson is patient. 

 

We are NOT 1 or 2 players away from a Super Bowl.    Our roster is improved,  but it's not that good!

 

Be patient and add picks/players....    Keep.    Building.    The.    Monster!!!

 

Colts got to the 2nd round of the playoffs last year with how many injuries to key personnel?  Not to mention it was the first year for several of our defensive starters.  I don't think we're as far off as people think.

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ZT....

 

You have hit on one of my fears.

 

A player Grigson loves seems to be falling to us at 59.    Not sure if he'll get all the way to us,  Grigson starts trading future picks to move up.     But future picks are going to be expensive.      Depending on how far up Grigson would want us to move,  he'd have to likely spend a future 2 to get there.     If we were lucky,  it would only have to be a 3.     But I wouldn't count on that!

 

I hope Grigson is patient. 

 

We are NOT 1 or 2 players away from a Super Bowl.    Our roster is improved,  but it's not that good!

 

Be patient and add picks/players....    Keep.    Building.    The.    Monster!!!

Grigson has shown conviction in pursuing specific players (and willingness to part with picks) but has also coupled that with discipline.  Mostly, he has been patient - allowing Werner to fall to 26, Fleener at 34.  He also didn't rush his board in the 3rd and 4th last year, and it is fair to speculate that he wanted linemen with both of those picks and resisted the urge to trade up.  I'd guess he would have preferred Barrett Jones to Khaled Holmes (though we'll never know) when the Rams took him 8 spots earlier.  He has shown some patience, but has not shown the kind of patience that let's his guy go all the way by the window.

 

Overall, I prefer the approach that values players over picks.  2012 was rare.  Championships are built by getting a couple good pieces every year, not rolling the dice on pick volume.

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Grigson has shown conviction in pursuing specific players (and willingness to part with picks) but has also coupled that with discipline.  Mostly, he has been patient - allowing Werner to fall to 26, Fleener at 34.  He also didn't rush his board in the 3rd and 4th last year, and it is fair to speculate that he wanted linemen with both of those picks and resisted the urge to trade up.  I'd guess he would have preferred Barrett Jones to Khaled Holmes (though we'll never know) when the Rams took him 8 spots earlier.  He has shown some patience, but has not shown the kind of patience that let's his guy go all the way by the window.

 

Overall, I prefer the approach that values players over picks.  2012 was rare.  Championships are built by getting a couple good pieces every year, not rolling the dice on pick volume.

 

ZT....

 

Good points....   but as for last year,  I think Grigson got the two OL he wanted.

 

Thornton's coach in college, Hal Hunter (?)  became our OL coach.    So, he knew him well.

 

And we flew in Holmes for a private meeting.    I think Grigson LOVES the guy!     I don't recall any connection to Jones last year, other than he was Gavin's favorite player!       :thmup:

 

Otherwise.....   I hope you're right.    I hope Grigson stays true to his board and does not get impulsive about moving up.

 

Boy,  I'd LOVE to be a fly on the wall in the Colts draft room come May 9!

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ZT....

 

Good points....   but as for last year,  I think Grigson got the two OL he wanted.

 

Thornton's coach in college, Hal Hunter (?)  became our OL coach.    So, he knew him well.

 

And we flew in Holmes for a private meeting.    I think Grigson LOVES the guy!     I don't recall any connection to Jones last year, other than he was Gavin's favorite player!       :thmup:

 

Otherwise.....   I hope you're right.    I hope Grigson stays true to his board and does not get impulsive about moving up.

 

Boy,  I'd LOVE to be a fly on the wall in the Colts draft room come May 9!

Didn't remember that about the Holmes fly-in but that certainly is relevant evidence to suggest preference. Regardless of rating, I think that both of those picks, on that draft day, were very purposeful in laying the groundwork for our line and that it took a measure of restraint to allow BPA to fall and complete the plan (if that is how it actually happened).

 

I share your fascination with process and would really love to see the draft board! 

 

I should also probably own that projection of preference for Jones by Grigson is a complete figment of my imagination based on my own preference at the time.  Since learning about Holmes I've discovered his core leadership traits along with his superior athleticism and realize that Grigs may have absolutely gotten his first choice.

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Colts got to the 2nd round of the playoffs last year with how many injuries to key personnel?  Not to mention it was the first year for several of our defensive starters.  I don't think we're as far off as people think.

I agree. when grigs first started i always thought it would be 3 drafts until we are legiet contender. I think we are that right now. 

 

I guess it deppends on the growt of last year draft picks.

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It's a lot of picks gained, but not sure that the quantity makes up for quality.  Having just one pick in the top 105, and having it be 66 is a big sacrifice.  

 

It's not that big of a sacrifice. We go from 59 to 66, and we give up 90 for 106. In a draft that's middle to bottom heavy, adding a bunch of picks in that meaty part of the draft would make up for it. 

 

I'm not sure we need 9 picks, though. I think 6 or 7 would be better. I'd rather just do the second trade with Cleveland, and keep our second rounder.

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Didn't remember that about the Holmes fly-in but that certainly is relevant evidence to suggest preference. Regardless of rating, I think that both of those picks, on that draft day, were very purposeful in laying the groundwork for our line and that it took a measure of restraint to allow BPA to fall and complete the plan (if that is how it actually happened).

 

I share your fascination with process and would really love to see the draft board! 

 

I should also probably own that projection of preference for Jones by Grigson is a complete figment of my imagination based on my own preference at the time.  Since learning about Holmes I've discovered his core leadership traits along with his superior athleticism and realize that Grigs may have absolutely gotten his first choice.

 

More about Holmes...

 

He graduated USC in less than 4 years, and in a serious major.   Something like International Studies.   And I believe he already has his masters.    I remember reading he had a very high wonderlic.   I know his runner-up school to USC was Stanford.   He's an exceptionally bright kid.    I think as long as Luck and Holmes are a team, we'd have the smartest QB/C combo in football!

 

And Grigson loves him for more reasons, and explains a bit about Holmes' lack of playing last year....   here's a quote I found this morning over on ESPN.com

 

 

Holmes was behind everybody after missing a significant amount of training camp last year with an ankle injury.

"This league, unfortunately, when a guy gets hurt in training camp he gets shelved," Colts general manager Ryan Grigson said last month at the NFL owners meetings. "There was a lot of optimism about him in minicamp, his level of intelligence. He's unique, he's 318 pounds. He's got guard versatility, even though I think he's a center, but he's got good arm length. At center, you have to have that. ... The guy knows how to play football."

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More about Holmes...

 

He graduated USC in less than 4 years, and in a serious major.   Something like International Studies.   And I believe he already has his masters.    I remember reading he had a very high wonderlic.   I know his runner-up school to USC was Stanford.   He's an exceptionally bright kid.    I think as long as Luck and Holmes are a team, we'd have the smartest QB/C combo in football!

 

And Grigson loves him for more reasons, and explains a bit about Holmes' lack of playing last year....   here's a quote I found this morning over on ESPN.com

 

 

Holmes was behind everybody after missing a significant amount of training camp last year with an ankle injury.

"This league, unfortunately, when a guy gets hurt in training camp he gets shelved," Colts general manager Ryan Grigson said last month at the NFL owners meetings. "There was a lot of optimism about him in minicamp, his level of intelligence. He's unique, he's 318 pounds. He's got guard versatility, even though I think he's a center, but he's got good arm length. At center, you have to have that. ... The guy knows how to play football."

Kinda sounds like we ought to be more excited about Holmes!

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ZT....

 

You have hit on one of my fears.

 

A player Grigson loves seems to be falling to us at 59.    Not sure if he'll get all the way to us,  Grigson starts trading future picks to move up.     But future picks are going to be expensive.      Depending on how far up Grigson would want us to move,  he'd have to likely spend a future 2 to get there.     If we were lucky,  it would only have to be a 3.     But I wouldn't count on that!

 

I hope Grigson is patient. 

 

We are NOT 1 or 2 players away from a Super Bowl.    Our roster is improved,  but it's not that good!

 

Be patient and add picks/players....    Keep.    Building.    The.    Monster!!!

I like your scenario but as another poster said, I would only attempt it if there are 3 or 4 players you like that are still on the board at 59. I agree that adding selections is the way to go this draft rather than trying to hit a home run with pick #59 or moving up to get what you think is THE guy. In my opinion we have the following holes to fill, in no particular order: Interior offensive line depth, Safety depth, future #1 WR, ILB depth, Rush LB consideration.

 

In my opinion quality depth at S is not there. I have no problem with Howell. But beyond him and Landry we don't have anyone I would feel comfortable with coming in because of injury. The Center and Guard positions are still a big question and I think you can get quality players for those positions in the 4th and 5th rounds. WR also seems to be a position this year that is pretty deep and we could get a quality player(not sure a future #1 WR)in the 3rd or 4th round.

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Colts got to the 2nd round of the playoffs last year with how many injuries to key personnel?  Not to mention it was the first year for several of our defensive starters.  I don't think we're as far off as people think.

 

I agree. You can't beat Seattle, San Francisco, and Denver and be all that far off.

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Colts trade 3rd, 5th 2014 for 6th 2014 and 2nd 2015.


 


2014


 


2. DaQuan Jones DT


6. KaDeem Edwards OG


6. Max Bullough ILB or Loucheiz Purifoy CB


7. Boston FS


 


2015


 


1. Amare Cooper WR (Wayne's Understudy-Replacement)


2. Jackson OG


2. Lyons CB


3. Strong Safety...BPA


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not a fan of this I would rather stay at 2,3,5,6,7 if we do anything I would like to add a pick or two this year if our guy is gone at 59 drop back a little. This draft is just to loaded to trade out of it.

 

Our pick next year will be at the bottom of the first I would expect.. Do you think that is where Cooper is going? I don't.

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While may trades make sense from a point perspective,  having had some time to think this through even more thoroughly,  I think my trade idea with Washington is a pipe dream.

 

They're still paying off their RG3 deal.    So, they don't have their #1 this year.    They're not going to be willing to do a 4 for 2 trade on top of that.    No chance.

 

My bad for not realizing it at the time......     dopey me!       :slaphead:

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not a fan of this I would rather stay at 2,3,5,6,7 if we do anything I would like to add a pick or two this year if our guy is gone at 59 drop back a little. This draft is just to loaded to trade out of it.

 

Our pick next year will be at the bottom of the first I would expect.. Do you think that is where Cooper is going? I don't.

 

Well of course YOU would...  That is the point of this blog.  

 

Question:  How many 5,6,7 round draft picks are on the colts roster...that the colts have drafted?

 

Rather have quality over quantity... With the security of extra OL back-up.

 

Cheers.

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Well of course YOU would...  That is the point of this blog.  

 

Question:  How many 5,6,7 round draft picks are on the colts roster...that the colts have drafted?

 

Rather have quality over quantity... With the security of extra OL back-up.

 

Cheers.

I think in this draft we can get quality into the 5th expecting that Cooper who will more than likely be the #1 ranked WR next year will be sitting there for us at the bottom of the first next year is optimistic at best.

 

I would be surprised to see us trade out of this draft. The deepest draft in years.  We will all know in a couple of weeks what Grigs has planned. Personally I would like to add pieces we are pretty close in my opinion.

 

The answer to 5-7 on the roster is not many but Grigs cleaned house how many players are still here from the Polain era at all?

 

The only ones who come to mind without researching it are McAfie, Robert Mathis,  Hughes and Brazil were all 5th round picks or later. Keep in mind that is on a roster that has been totally overhauled. Bethea was a 5th rounder but we know what happened to him.

 

To think you can't find quality players after day 2 is just wrong. YOU should probably look around the NFL and see how many players were looked over in the draft. You could put an all time team together. Hint begin building around Brady he went in the 6th.

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Well of course YOU would...  That is the point of this blog.  

 

Question:  How many 5,6,7 round draft picks are on the colts roster...that the colts have drafted?

 

Rather have quality over quantity... With the security of extra OL back-up.

 

Cheers.

Chapman another 5 round or later player to make the team and an impact on a roster that has been totally overhauled. I wish all teams followed your philosophy so do most GM's I would imagine

 

Ballard add him to the list. It is really starting to build steam considering Grigs totally cleaned house in 2012 Let me add players that went undrafted altogether and you will look like a real genius.

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My issue with trading down is who we might miss out on. If one of the top safeties is there at 59 then I think we immediately pull the trigger. I have Ward and Buccannon as the top safeties after Pryor and Dix. Personally I like Bucannon better than Dix who could be another overrated prospect from Bama who will either be solid or a bust. If Ward and Bucannon are gone, I think you almost have to trade down.

 

3-66     Wash

4-106   Cleve

4-127   Indy from Cleve in 2013 draft.

5-142   Wash

5-145   Cleve

6-178   Wash

7-217   Wash

7-218   Cleve

7-236   Indy

 

 

I would trade all of those 7th round picks and the 6th for an early 5th/late 4th though. But I think you could get some interesting guys in that middle part of the draft

 

At OL: Joel Bitonio, Billy Turner, Trai Turner, Juwan James (who people feel is better than Tiny Richardson), Dokota Dozier

At CB: Keith McGill, E.J. Gaines, Phillip Gaines, Pierre Desir, Walt Atkins

At S: Terrance Brooks, Lamarcus Joyner (will fall because of size), Atone Exum, Brock Vereen, Dezman Sothward,

At ILB: Max Bullough, Preston Brown, Shayne Skov, Yawin Smallwood

At WR: Kevin Norwood, Michael Campanaro, Jarvis Landry, Bruce Ellington

 

But like I said, it depends on who is already taken at each of our picks. I think Demarcus Lawrence and Marcus Smith(worked out and visited both) are being looked at as OLB's of the future for us and one of them could be there at one of our picks. I also wonder if Grigson wouldn't trade up for a guy he loves like Bucannon or Lawrence who I think are 2 of the highest rated players on our board.

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My issue with trading down is who we might miss out on. If one of the top safeties is there at 59 then I think we immediately pull the trigger. I have Ward and Buccannon as the top safeties after Pryor and Dix. Personally I like Bucannon better than Dix who could be another overrated prospect from Bama who will either be solid or a bust. If Ward and Bucannon are gone, I think you almost have to trade down.

 

 

I would trade all of those 7th round picks and the 6th for an early 5th/late 4th though. But I think you could get some interesting guys in that middle part of the draft.

 

 

At OL: Joel Bitonio, Billy Turner, Trai Turner, Juwan James (who people feel is better than Tiny Richardson), Dokota Dozier

At CB: Keith McGill, E.J. Gaines, Phillip Gaines, Pierre Desir, Walt Atkins

At S: Terrance Brooks, Lamarcus Joyner (will fall because of size), Atone Exum, Brock Vereen, Dezman Sothward,

At ILB: Max Bullough, Preston Brown, Shayne Skov, Yawin Smallwood

At WR: Kevin Norwood, Michael Campanaro, Jarvis Landry, Bruce Ellington

 

But like I said, it depends on who is already taken at each of our picks. I think Demarcus Lawrence and Marcus Smith(worked out and visited both) are being looked at as OLB's of the future for us and one of them could be there at one of our picks. I also wonder if Grigson wouldn't trade up for a guy he loves like Bucannon or Lawrence who I think are 2 of the highest rated players on our board.

 

 

I think the three-7's and our 6 would net us a late 5.   Maybe.    It might just net us a high 6.    You can't move up very far with lots of 7's and a 6.

 

As to the players you're hoping you might snag...  I think almost every one of the players you listed below will be gone by the end of the 4th round.  Seriously.    Some might go to the 5th round.    Maybe.    I think the one who might fall badly (not sure how badly) is Skov.   His private workout was awful,  so he might slide badly.    But I think he could go in he 5th, certainly no later than the 6th.  

 

But a number of guys you have listed are 2nd round guys...  many more are 3rd round guys.   Some are 4th round guys.   They'll be long gone by the time our late picks come around.    Wish it wasn't so....    of all the guys you listed, the one who might fall to the 6th round is the WR, Campanaro.   Otherwise...  Skov in the 5th....  maybe Smallwood and Bullough too.  Perhaps Aikins...   But again,  you're not going to be able to trade up enough to pull off what you hope to do...

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How about this - We offer all of our picks this year to whatever team who would be willing in the first round, and would enable us to go and get Clinton-Dix or Calvin Pryor.

 

I know that would never happen, but I would prefer getting real elite talent over a bunch of players who is around the "150th - 250th best prospect in the 2014 draft" mark.

Considering this scenario, I wouldn't do it unless it was specifically to get Pryor.

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Chapman another 5 round or later player to make the team and an impact on a roster that has been totally overhauled. I wish all teams followed your philosophy so do most GM's I would imagine

 

Ballard add him to the list. It is really starting to build steam considering Grigs totally cleaned house in 2012 Let me add players that went undrafted altogether and you will look like a real genius.

Geez...

 

I would trade the whole draft 2,3,5,6...for 2015.  We will win the AFC South 2014-15.  Therefore, in the playoffs again.  We need that difference maker on Def and/or Off. Our sweet spot to win multiple championships is 2015-16, 2016-17, 2017-18, 2019-20, 2020-21...

 

Just to many teams ahead in the draft game...SF,SEA,DEN,NE,GB, KC, CIN all set-up to win now.

 

We can/have patched the holes with FA. Maybe a FS like Boston this year.

 

2015: 1,1,2,3,4,4,5,6,7 Picks

 

Cheers.

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I would rather keep the 2nd round pick. Trading back will get us an extra pick but some of the top players won't be there. In the 2nd round i believe one of the following players will be available.

 

Terrence Brooks, Deone Bucannon, Jeremiah Attoachu, Marcus Smith, Carl Bradford, Gabe Jackson, Keith Mcgill, David Yankey and Kyle Van Noy. 

 

I consider all of these players to have late 1st early 2nd round grades but will drop to the end of the 2nd round because teams will reach for QB's. I don't think any of these players will make it to our pick in the 3rd round. This draft we have to hit a homerun in the 2nd round instead of a double in the 3rd because we don't have our 1st round pick.

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    • Davis had a very good rookie season after being drafted in the 2nd round out of Ohio State (I believe).   Graded in the 70’s against both the run and pass.      But his last three years have been disappointing, as he’s graded in the mid-50’s.   The reason I’m so interested in this signing, is (A) I’m sure it was heavily influenced by the new DL coach, Partridge.   And (B) we’re paying him 2/14.  I don’t recall that kind of money ever being given to a basic backup before.   Don’t think Davis is here to push Stewart, the Colts just signed him to 3/39.  That tells me the Colts defensive staff sees him differently.   I don’t know what the plan the staff has come up with for Davis, but I’m looking forward to watching it play out. 
    • What I’m reading on him the Pacers did get good value. Looks like he will need time to develop but he is in the right situation to do that. The pacers are stacking some quality young players that will prove to be more outstanding depth or assets if they choose to make a trade. Very exciting time for the team right now.  
    • I’m not a religious person, but since you’re an educator I think you’re doing Gods work!   In these crazy insane times we’re all living in you’re doing one of the toughest jobs on earth.  And you’re teaching perhaps the most difficult generation to deal with.     From a distance it feels like you’re being very unfair to you.  I’m hoping in time you’ll see yourself in a completely different light.    Someone highly thought of.  A leader in the community.  A protector of young minds.   I couldn’t admire a teacher more.  
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