Barnwell's Bad Contracts -- two Colts listed

[Superman]

http://www.grantland.com/story/_/id/9518181/bill-barnwell-breaks-worst-contracts-nfl

The Marginal Talent: This problem reared its head a lot during free agency in the last days of the old CBA, when the cap was rising so quickly that teams rarely found themselves in cap trouble. With the cap expanding at a far slower rate after the new CBA was signed in 2011, teams have generally avoided big deals for replacement-level veterans, but there were a few examples this past offseason, mainly concentrated with one team in the Midwest.

System Guy Out of System: A player's teammates and fit within a system can drastically distort his value before moving to a new organization. Too many teams have bought high on a second or third weapon in a good passing attack, only to find that the player in question — let's say his name rhymes with Deerless Dice — doesn't fare so well as the primary receiver in an offense with an inferior quarterback.

Offensive Tackle: Gosder Cherilus, Colts
Contract Flaw: The Marginal Talent

You can understand the Colts wanting to protect Andrew Luck. No shame in that. But they severely misread the tackle market in giving Cherilus a five-year, $34.5 million contract with $15.5 million guaranteed during the opening week of free agency. Far superior tackles like Andre Smith and Sebastian Vollmer would later come off the market on less-lucrative deals.

Defensive Tackle: Ricky Jean-Francois, Colts
Contract Flaws: The Marginal Talent, System Guy Out of System

RJF has a very similar story to Cofield, but Cofield saw the field more frequently than Jean-Francois did as a 49er. The LSU product has started just two games in his career and only played sparingly in a great defense, but the Colts gave him $22 million over four years and $6.5 million guaranteed in the hopes that he'll be their starting nose tackle up front. Maybe it will work, but this is a lot of risk for a deeply buried backup.

 

Interesting thoughts. Notice that Erik Walden is missing from the list. Points to Barnwell for not jumping on the bandwagon.

 

I disagree with his characterization of Cherilus as a marginal talent. He's a highly rated tackle who doesn't give up sacks and holds his own in the run game. PFF and FO agree, not that they are conclusive, but it's strange that someone would label Cherilus as a marginal talent. I'm concerned about the big signing bonus, given his questionable knees, but the talent is there. And there are no character questions, like with Andre Smith, who was actually trying to get $9m/year. I might have preferred Vollmer, but he was holding out for big money as well. And it's questionable whether Vollmer is actually better than Cherilus, or if his reputation is being bolstered by playing for a really good team with a really efficient quarterback. 

 

I agree with his characterization of RJF. I like his potential, but his talent and production don't jump out at you. And he played in a really good defense, with really good players -- Justin Smith, Aldon Smith, Patrick Willis, Navarro Bowman, etc. No guaranteed money beyond 2013, but $5.5m for a rotational defensive lineman might be a little high. There weren't a lot of comparable options out there, given his age and upside. I think he fits well in our hybrid front, but he needs to be a difference maker to justify his contract.

[PrincetonTiger]

a talking head

[Superman]

Barnwell knows his stuff. One of my favorite NFL writers.

[mvbighead]

Only thing I don't agree with is classifying RJF as our nose.  While he has some time there, and as part of the hybrid front, he may take reps, he is probably the furthest thing from our starting NT.  He was the backup to Justin Smith for the 49ers at end.

 

As for Cherilus, time will tell.  I sure hope he is as good as they're paying him.

[Superman]

Only thing I don't agree with is classifying RJF as our nose.  While he has some time there, and as part of the hybrid front, he may take reps, he is probably the furthest thing from our starting NT.  He was the backup to Justin Smith for the 49ers at end.

 

As for Cherilus, time will tell.  I sure hope he is as good as they're paying him.

 

I missed that. Yeah, RJF isn't a nose tackle, even though he can play there in a sub front. But even at end, we're paying him good starter's money. He's got something to prove.

 

If Cherilus plays like he has the past two years, we're getting a top level right tackle. Health is the only question.

[chad72]

The only ones I did not mind the Colts signing quickly were Toler and Landry for a secondary that needed serious upgrade.

 

Everyone else - Walden, RJF, Cherilus, I felt they could have waited it out, IMO. I still dont mind them being signed for their roles, just not the price they were signed for.

[Carlos Danger]

I can't think of another D-Lineman who would've been a better value at the time.. He (Jean Francois) can be cut after this season if he doesn't pan out with no real consequences (beyond this season)...

 

Cherilus is a player that I really liked, but was taken by surprise by how much he was offered so early in FA.... I'm less concerned with his contract when I remember how many wanted Clady or Long... I think Cherilus is on the first level of the second tier of OTs, if that makes sense, and I really expect him to earn his money if he stays healthy...

[Superman]

The only ones I did not mind the Colts signing quickly were Toler and Landry for a secondary that needed serious upgrade.

 

Everyone else - Walden, RJF, Cherilus, I felt they could have waited it out, IMO. I still dont mind them being signed for their roles, just not the price they were signed for.

 

I tend to agree. I think the total value of Walden's contract got overblown, because it's essentially one year, $4m. But it did and does seem a little on the high side. 

 

Same thing with RJF and Cherilus, although there were reports that the Dolphins were in the mix on Cherilus as well. In the end, $6.9m/year isn't that much more than either Smith ($6.03m/year) or Vollmer (potentially $6.75m/year) got. And both of them were initially trying for significantly more.

 

This is the name of the game in free agency, by the way. Sometimes you pay sticker price.

[esmort]

I missed that. Yeah, RJF isn't a nose tackle, even though he can play there in a sub front. But even at end, we're paying him good starter's money. He's got something to prove.

 

If Cherilus plays like he has the past two years, we're getting a top level right tackle. Health is the only question.

 

I agree with your assessment of Cherilus from your original post, and why Grigson/FO might not have been as high on Vollmer as many were.

 

I think they probably overpaid Cherilus slightly and probably could have gotten him a bit cheaper if they had waited. But, I think he was their best rated FA RT, and knowing they were getting the player they wanted/targeted was more important than saving a few dollars on the contract and take the risk of losing him to another team, especially given the amount of money we had to spend.

[Superman]

I can't think of another D-Lineman who would've been a better value at the time.. He (Jean Francois) can be cut after this season if he doesn't pan out with no real consequences (beyond this season)...

 

 

He was a unique free agent, that's for sure, given his age and versatility. 

[schwamm]

I agree with your assessment of Cherilus from your original post, and why Grigson/FO might not have been as high on Vollmer as many were.

I think they probably overpaid Cherilus slightly and probably could have gotten him a bit cheaper if they had waited. But, I think he was their best rated FA RT, and knowing they were getting the player they wanted/targeted was more important than saving a few dollars on the contract and take the risk of losing him to another team, especially given the amount of money we had to spend.

People are acting like the Colts blew it with the contract for Cherilus, that they could have held off for a while, and squeaked out a deal for less. Maybe Grigson wanted to let it rip for the guy he saw as the best FA RT.

[ar1888]

As I have said since the moment the Colts signed Cherilus, I don't think he is a very good player. I have watched this guy play with the Lions since 2008, overrated. He had games where he is above average, and plenty more where he is pulled due to ineffectiveness.  I hope he pulls it all together, but I wont be shocked if he is a complete bust. This is the only FA signing I actually hated.

[Superman]

People are acting like the Colts blew it with the contract for Cherilus, that they could have held off for a while, and squeaked out a deal for less. Maybe Grigson wanted to let it rip for the guy he saw as the best FA RT.

According to the Miami Herald, our offer to Cherilus kept him from visiting the Dolphins.

http://miamiherald.typepad.com/sports-buzz/2013/05/analysts-speak-out-on-heat-lots-of-heat-chatter-dolphins-canes-notes.html

 

### Jake Long and Bryant McKinnie weren’t the only offensive tackles the Dolphins tried to land and couldn’t. We hear Miami made a serious run, early in the free agency, to try to sign Gosder Cherilus, but he opted for a five-year, $34 million contract with Indianapolis. He canceled a visit here when Detroit made the big offer.

 

[schwamm]

According to the Miami Herald, our offer to Cherilus kept him from visiting the Dolphins.

http://miamiherald.typepad.com/sports-buzz/2013/05/analysts-speak-out-on-heat-lots-of-heat-chatter-dolphins-canes-notes.html

Thanks for responding to the serious side of my previous post, and for ignoring the juvenile undertone.

[HarassedOffTheSite]

I categorize this as an opinion/hypothesis searching for facts/examples.

He may well be correct...and he may end up skipping rounds off the deck.

Time will tell. Regardless, this'll feed the other empty contrarian rants.

[Smonroe]

People are acting like the Colts blew it with the contract for Cherilus, that they could have held off for a while, and squeaked out a deal for less. Maybe Grigson wanted to let it rip for the guy he saw as the best FA RT.

Lets throw out the contracts. None of us are capologists, lets assume the Colts know how to handle their contracts.

The question I have to ask is - do you want these guys on your team? Will they help make the team better?

We can't answer that last question until we see them play. Then we'll know if they have good or bad contracts, right?

[MAC]

Thanks for responding to the serious side of my previous post, and for ignoring the juvenile undertone.

I'm delighted to hear that the juvenile undertone was intended. I was about to comment on the power of the "empty space" in written expression - in case anyone had missed it.

 

 

Similarly I've been meaning to say that the first time I saw one of your fantasy threads I read "x" where you have "z".

That's an entirely different fantasy, and potentially quite disturbing actually. : :

[Superman]

As I have said since the moment the Colts signed Cherilus, I don't think he is a very good player. I have watched this guy play with the Lions since 2008, overrated. He had games where he is above average, and plenty more where he is pulled due to ineffectiveness.  I hope he pulls it all together, but I wont be shocked if he is a complete bust. This is the only FA signing I actually hated.

 

Cherilus was highly rated last season, and trending upward from 2011. The previous two years weren't impressive, but he made significant improvement. As I mentioned earlier, he doesn't give up sacks and was good in the run game. Only right tackle rated higher was Andre Smith.

[ColtsFanMikeC]

One thing I like about the RJF contract is that Manusky was his d-coordinator in San Fran when he was a rookie.  I have a feeling that Manusky must like something about him b/c undoubtedly, Grigs and Pagano must've asked his opinion before giving him that money.

[schwamm]

I'm delighted to hear that the juvenile undertone was intended. I was about to comment on the power of the "empty space" in written expression - in case anyone had missed it.

Similarly I've been meaning to say that the first time I saw one of your fantasy threads I read "x" where you have "z".

That's an entirely different fantasy, and potentially quite disturbing actually. : :

I figured the "blew it", "held off", "squeaked out" and "let it rip" would have betrayed my intentions, but I appreciate people giving me the benefit if the doubt.

And on the X-Z topic, strangely enough, I think I've mistyped it a bunch of times... I wonder what Freud would say?

[MAC]

I figured the "blew it", "held off", "squeaked out" and "let it rip" would have betrayed my intentions, but I appreciate people giving me the benefit if the doubt.

And on the X-Z topic, strangely enough, I think I've mistyped it a bunch of times... I wonder what Freud would say?

People here don't provide the benefit of the doubt - not fun in that . More likely just reading every third word and thinking about football.

 

I suspect that Freud might say something about "holding off" a bit too long.

[schwamm]

People here don't provide the benefit of the doubt - not fun in that . More likely just reading every third word and thinking about football.

 

I suspect that Freud might say something about "holding off" a bit too long.

That might be exactly why I'm getting out of the fantasy football business and downloading all that crap...  focus on more productive... uhmmm... activities?

[csmopar]

I think it's far to early to label them as bad contracts. One, we do not know how many teams pursued these guys nor what offer's other teams made. Granted we may have over paid some, if these guys help us win in the long run, then I'd call them good contracts. Plus, it seems that while the contracts are high, IIRC, these contracts have little guaranteed money, meaning we can cut them without huge penalties later on. Just my 2 cents.

[Gavin]

I agree with Barnwell, both Cherilus and Francois have talent but Francois was seriously overpaid, He is talented and he has some explosion to him but his production dont match his athleticism.

[Mameluc]

Barnwell knows his stuff. One of my favorite NFL writers.

yea but RJF wont be our starting NT

[Carlos Danger]

People are acting like the Colts blew it with the contract for Cherilus, that they could have held off for a while, and squeaked out a deal for less. Maybe Grigson wanted to let it rip for the guy he saw as the best FA RT.

you said FA RT....

[Superman]

I figured the "blew it", "held off", "squeaked out" and "let it rip" would have betrayed my intentions, but I appreciate people giving me the benefit if the doubt.

And on the X-Z topic, strangely enough, I think I've mistyped it a bunch of times... I wonder what Freud would say?

 

I confess, the double meaning of your post snuck right under my nose.

[crazycolt1]

I agree with Barnwell, both Cherilus and Francois have talent but Francois was seriously overpaid, He is talented and he has some explosion to him but his production dont match his athleticism.

Grigson didn't have your opinion. How one player played in one system is not always what will be expected of them in a different. Last season Grigson brought in 37 new players to the Colts roster. That was even being strapped with a lot of dead cap money. Right now the Colts are still under the cap. You cant say anyone is overpaid till the end of this season. 

[Superman]

yea but RJF wont be our starting NT

 

Very true.

[Nobody]

Well he's right on Cherilus. Vollmer and Smith are better (Maybe), younger, and cheaper.

[John Dee]

Exactly..     he looks at "paper info" ..   

 

I guarantee he has not been to ONE Colt practice.        but these are "bad contracts"  ... 

 

Whatever,, ,  eat some more chips, and drink more Pepsi... 

a talking head

[Superman]

Well he's right on Cherilus. Vollmer and Smith are better (Maybe), younger, and cheaper.

 

This highlights why Andre Smith wasn't on the Colts FA wish list: http://www.cincyjungle.com/2013/7/23/4549862/jay-gruden-andre-smiths-absence-this-offseason-sends-wrong-message

 

That's without mentioning that he was asking for $9m/year. He didn't sign until a month into free agency, the second day of the draft, once his market had clearly disintegrated. So, at the time, he wasn't cheaper. Maybe we could have waited him out, but again, I don't think we wanted him.

 

Vollmer signed for slightly less per year than Cherilus, but I don't think he's definitively better. He's only two weeks younger. And he has perhaps more significant injury concerns than Cherilus does. Cherilus did get more guaranteed, but based on what Vollmer is likely to earn over the next two seasons, compared to what Cherilus will earn over the next two seasons, the contracts are pretty much the same.

[John Dee]

7 m per is outrageous for a T?      Tackle  ..  R or L is THE MOST IMPORTANT POSITION OUT SIDE OF QB ON AN NFL TEAM.   

 

Dang I guess you missed the train wreck that was Ind's OL last season? 

 

This team didn't break the bank for anyone...          They are FINE.

 

Well he's right on Cherilus. Vollmer and Smith are better (Maybe), younger, and cheaper.

[Kyle]

I agree with Barnwell

 

He has now lost all credibility 

 

 

;)

[Hans Moleman]

They were aggressive contracts, but they filled pressing needs.

 

It's easier to take a wait & see approach and bargain hunt when you're building from a position of strength. We weren't: our needs dictated our urgency. I don't think we blew any of the contracts on the guys we signed, but I can't really argue if they're too rich for some analysts' tastes. The most important thing was that we made our team noticeably better without mortgaging the future, even if we made sure to pay a little extra to land the guys we wanted.

[chrisfarley]

Cherilus was a big stretch, have to agree 100 percent on that one.  He is going to be a HUGE disappointment and at a boat-load of cost.  Vollmer will make Cherilus look very pedestrian, VERY. u can mark these words and come back and make me eat crow---i'll remember.

[MakeItWayne]

Lets be honest, who saw free agency unfolding the way it did? I know I didnt. Grigson obviously knew exactly who he wanted and didnt let them leave Indianapolis the day free agency opened. Maybe if he knew he could get guys like Avril at 7.5, Asomugha at 3, and Vollmer at less than 7 mill per year a few weeks later, he might have opted to do so. But hindsight is 20/20. No sense in worrying or complaining about it now. Like many have said they all have very little guaranteed money. Lets just hope these guys can come in and help our team get to the next level!

[NewColtsFan]

http://www.grantland.com/story/_/id/9518181/bill-barnwell-breaks-worst-contracts-nfl

The Marginal Talent: This problem reared its head a lot during free agency in the last days of the old CBA, when the cap was rising so quickly that teams rarely found themselves in cap trouble. With the cap expanding at a far slower rate after the new CBA was signed in 2011, teams have generally avoided big deals for replacement-level veterans, but there were a few examples this past offseason, mainly concentrated with one team in the Midwest.

System Guy Out of System: A player's teammates and fit within a system can drastically distort his value before moving to a new organization. Too many teams have bought high on a second or third weapon in a good passing attack, only to find that the player in question — let's say his name rhymes with Deerless Dice — doesn't fare so well as the primary receiver in an offense with an inferior quarterback.

Offensive Tackle: Gosder Cherilus, Colts

Contract Flaw: The Marginal Talent

You can understand the Colts wanting to protect Andrew Luck. No shame in that. But they severely misread the tackle market in giving Cherilus a five-year, $34.5 million contract with $15.5 million guaranteed during the opening week of free agency. Far superior tackles like Andre Smith and Sebastian Vollmer would later come off the market on less-lucrative deals.

Defensive Tackle: Ricky Jean-Francois, Colts

Contract Flaws: The Marginal Talent, System Guy Out of System

RJF has a very similar story to Cofield, but Cofield saw the field more frequently than Jean-Francois did as a 49er. The LSU product has started just two games in his career and only played sparingly in a great defense, but the Colts gave him $22 million over four years and $6.5 million guaranteed in the hopes that he'll be their starting nose tackle up front. Maybe it will work, but this is a lot of risk for a deeply buried backup.

 

Interesting thoughts. Notice that Erik Walden is missing from the list. Points to Barnwell for not jumping on the bandwagon.

 

 

 

I don't want to give the writer points for not jumping on the bandwagon....   I thought that was easily the worst contract and it was the one I expected to see in the story.   When I did see it, I rolled my eyes...    Don't get me wrong,  I'm not complaining that we signed him...   I'm complaining that we signed him to a bad contract.   I think we paid over his value.   Even if you view it as one year and $4M.

 

 

Also, when he wrote that RJF was brought in to play Nose Tackle,  I thought that was another bad strike again him.   That was always his secondary position, not his primary position which was DE.

 

Personally,  I was underwhelmed.

 

But, like you and everyone else,  all will be forgiven if we make the post-season this year....

[Gavin]

Grigson didn't have your opinion. How one player played in one system is not always what will be expected of them in a different. Last season Grigson brought in 37 new players to the Colts roster. That was even being strapped with a lot of dead cap money. Right now the Colts are still under the cap. You cant say anyone is overpaid till the end of this season. 

"You cant say anyone is overpaid till the end of this season." I understand what your saying but I just dont agree, Taking that approach has led to some real problems at times with players who did not perform up to there contracts, look at what Flacco did during the regular season, Ozzie Newsome would have been ridiculed for paying Flacco the kinda of money he got post super bowl BEFORE Flacco actually had a great post season, The money is extremely different comparing Francois and Flacco but the idea is not, neithershowed the ability or production to justify the pay day they got, With that said, Francois is explosive, quick for a D Lineman. The athleticism and speed is there to get penetration and hold his ground but the production has not been there.

[Superman]

I don't want to give the writer points for not jumping on the bandwagon....   I thought that was easily the worst contract and it was the one I expected to see in the story.   When I did see it, I rolled my eyes...    Don't get me wrong,  I'm not complaining that we signed him...   I'm complaining that we signed him to a bad contract.   I think we paid over his value.   Even if you view it as one year and $4M.

 

 

Also, when he wrote that RJF was brought in to play Nose Tackle,  I thought that was another bad strike again him.   That was always his secondary position, not his primary position which was DE.

 

Personally,  I was underwhelmed.

 

But, like you and everyone else,  all will be forgiven if we make the post-season this year....

 

Just to clarify, he DIDN'T include Erik Walden on his list. And I agree with that particular exclusion.

 

I had initially missed his comment about RJF playing nose tackle, so a demerit for Barnwell and a demerit for myself. I still agree with his overall point regarding RJF and the contract, however.