Why The Colts will Win A SB Within 5 Years

[dw49]

I'll bet £500 (good old british pounds) there won't be a more misleading thread title this calendar year.....I was expecting a rush of heady debate about the future of our franchise, future drafting strategies, Luck's development under Pep, and much much more.....

 

Instead we * chat about Flacco Time.

 

Not a pop at the OP....

 

 

 

 

I know none of you guys read through a whole thread so as the originator of this thread , I'll give this to you also. My post #8..

 

 

 

 

Guys and girls , you really miss the point. It's not who is better Flaco or Manning. It's the fact that we have a pure stud at QB and his cost is set at 15 mill for the next 3 years and around 12-13 mill in year 4. My original post is wrong as the 5th year of his contract cals for the "transition tag price," If Flacco doesn't get upwards of 20 mill , hes going to get 17-18. What's the difference ?

 

[pacolts56]

With our cap space in great shape and the initial draft class that Grigson brought us...we're definitely off to a good start. The O-line will be addressed and Andrew Luck and the skill position guys will mesh better and better going forward....and hopefully we will flip the turnover ratio to the plus side.

 

Pagano's 3-4 defense, while not properly manned yet, still showed some measurable improvement over previous years. Personnel upgrades should pay off big on defense.

 

And special teams also showed improvement and our returners showed flashes of game-breaking ability.

 

We are on a good path and that Super Bowl could happen sooner than 5 years, IMO.

 

One key reason being that Ryan Grigson appears to be of a mind where he will not make the team so lopsided and over-invested in any one area that other key areas of the team fall to the level of NFL laughingstock....like the O-line, run defense and special teams did during a large part of the Polian/Dungy/Manning era.

[ruksak]

Certainly not my fault. I put up the fact that we have a great QB at a low cost going into the next 4 years. Then I tried to get it back on track with my post #8 which read.....

 

 

 

 

Guys and girls , you really miss the point. It's not who is better Flaco or Manning. It's the fact that we have a pure stud at QB and his cost is set at 15 mill for the next 3 years and around 12-13 mill in year 4. My original post is wrong as the 5th year of his contract cals for the "transition tag price," If Flacco doesn't get upwards of 20 mill , hes going to get 17-18. What's the difference ?

 

Just curious....what price do you guess Luck will be demanding when his contract is up?

[IndyTrav]

Just curious....what price do you guess Luck will be demanding when his contract is up?

Barring anything miraculous, I'd think he'd be in the 5-6yrs $60-70mil range. Similar to Ryan and Rodgers.....his age 30/31yrs will be where he gets the mega contract.

[dw49]

Barring anything miraculous, I'd think he'd be in the 5-6yrs $60-70mil range. Similar to Ryan and Rodgers.....his age 30/31yrs will be where he gets the mega contract.

 

 

He'll get the 12 to 14 mill in the 5th year of this contract. Matt Ryan is in the last year of his rookie contract which was as you say 6 years for 66 mill. Rodgers signed a similar contract in 2008. This was an extension to his original 5 year 8 mill. deal he signed in 2005. So the Packers got a great deal and Rodgers was paid around 20 mill in years 2008 ansd 2009 where he would have made around 4 mill. So win-win.

 

So you have compared Ryans rookie contract and Rodgers contract "extension" to what will be Luck's second deal. Add in the fact that the cap will probably up with the new deal . So if we say that Luck is in the same class as Rodgers and Ryan , or maybe between them , I would guess you are looking at something like a 6 year deal at 120-130 mill.... at the minimum. 

 

You are also off calcuating his age where at the various contracts. He will be 28 when his first one ends. If his second deal is a 6-7 year deal , which is very likely to be the length , he would be around 34-35 going into the 3rd one. 

[dw49]

Just curious....what price do you guess Luck will be demanding when his contract is up?

 

 

If you think he will be a top 3 QB , it will be higher than the post I have above. Right now the going price for that kind of QB is 20 mill per year. 5 years from now , if the salaries continue to inflate like they have and they should considering the new huge TV deal , you might be looking at 5 years at 125 -130 mill.

[IndyTrav]

He'll get the 12 to 14 mill in the 5th year of this contract. Matt Ryan is in the last year of his rookie contract which was as you say 6 years for 66 mill. Rodgers signed a similar contract in 2008. This was an extension to his original 5 year 8 mill. deal he signed in 2005. So the Packers got a great deal and Rodgers was paid around 20 mill in years 2008 ansd 2009 where he would have made around 4 mill. So win-win.

So you have compared Ryans rookie contract and Rodgers contract "extension" to what will be Luck's second deal. Add in the fact that the cap will probably up with the new deal . So if we say that Luck is in the same class as Rodgers and Ryan , or maybe between them , I would guess you are looking at something like a 6 year deal at 120-130 mill.... at the minimum.

You are also off calcuating his age where at the various contracts. He will be 28 when his first one ends. If his second deal is a 6-7 year deal , which is very likely to be the length , he would be around 34-35 going into the 3rd one.

So you think since Ryan/Rodgers made roughly $11 a year, that Luck will make $20? In his 2nd contract?

Ya the cap will expand a bit. Maybe putting him near $15 (Eli range).

[tonychen]

At least Colts will have a bargain for 5 yrs and build a great team in 2-3 yrs, which will give the team a good shot at the big one especially considering Manning and Brady will all be gone and the entire AFC is not very competitive.

[dw49]

So you think since Ryan/Rodgers made roughly $11 a year, that Luck will make $20? In his 2nd contract?

 

 

 

Yes. You are looking at Matt Ryan's rookie deal , his 1st contract. This was done before the new CBA. It was 6 years at 60 million. Luck's rookie deal was 4 years at 20 mill and the 5th year at the transition price for QB's . That price shoud be around 14 million per year. If Luck is the real deal , the Colts will certainly exercise it. So he will already be making 14 mill before he signs his 2nd deal. What you need to do is compare the second contract Matt Ryan signs and go from there. It will be a minimum of 16-17 mill per year if they re-do it this year instead of the following year when it expires. So it could be 18-19 per year for his second contract mayeb even 20 if he had a great 2013. People are figuring they will re- up him this year instead for around 17 mill. 

 

THAT is the conract you need to compare to estimate Lucks second contract . You are trying to say Luks second contract will be equal to Ryans 1st. Same thing goes for Rodgers. You are comparng a contract written 2-3 years before a 5 year 8 mill contract expired. So the packes had some leverage with this deal as I tried to explai in my last post. 

 

 

You mention Eli and that contract was signed in 2009. Plus was he a top 3-4 QB in 2009 ?

 

You could also compare the deal that Flacco will sign this year if you want. If you think Luck's value will be the same as Flaccos it would be apples to apples. They are estimating a low of 17 mill and a high of 20 mill. I think Luck will be a more valuable commodity than Flaccol .

 

You also have to add 5 years of salary inflation to the above. So if Luck is a top 3-4 QB , he will easiiy exceed 20 mill per year. 

[dw49]

At least Colts will have a bargain for 5 yrs and build a great team in 2-3 yrs, which will give the team a good shot at the big one especially considering Manning and Brady will all be gone and the entire AFC is not very competitive.

 

That was the exact point of my thread. Although year 5 is an option at the franchise price . That means we pay Luck the average salary of the leagues top 10 QB's . So 4 years from now , that probably would be in the 14 mill range. IMO  that would be the lowest #.

[Captain Americolt]

I think Denver blew that game...allowing a turnover with 1 minute left then blow a coverage for a TD: this is a recipe for "How to loose a PO game"

.

Denver mismanaged that game, Baltimore wanted to win for Lewis and they've grabbed the opportunity.

Yes but I was talking about Flacco having a better game. If I remember correctly, Denver had a chance to win it, but Peyton threw an INT.he also didnt score all of those 35 points since there were two returns for TDs by Trindon Holliday.

[HungarianColtsFan]

Yes but I was talking about Flacco having a better game. If I remember correctly, Denver had a chance to win it, but Peyton threw an INT.he also didnt score all of those 35 points since there were two returns for TDs by Trindon Holliday.

 

Yes, definitely, Flacco had a better game, from an angle, no INTs no big plays either. From an other angle in spite of mistakes Denver had a chance to win, but mismanaged the end.

 

In the overtime I felt that Denver wouldn't win, they weren't that sharp.

 

I'm not arguing with You, but in my opinion, supporting cast did better job around Flacco than around Manning.

[Captain Americolt]

Yes, definitely, Flacco had a better game, from an angle, no INTs no big plays either. From an other angle in spite of mistakes Denver had a chance to win, but mismanaged the end.

In the overtime I felt that Denver wouldn't win, they weren't that sharp.

I'm not arguing with You, but in my opinion, supporting cast did better job around Flacco than around Manning.

Definitely agree.

[gbrads_rants]

Tyrod Taylor isn't a terrible back up...Joe needs to chill

[unitaswestand]

Flacco is a system QB with a big arm.  He is a second tier QB.

 

The Colts will win the Super Bowl within 3 years

[In Luck We Trust]

We have Andrew Luck for the next 4 years at around 5 million per year. Here is an example of what some of the good teams are now facing....

 

 

 

 NFL Network's Ian Rapoport reported on Total AccessMonday night that Joe Flacco intends to target more money than Peyton Manning in contract talks with the Ravens.

Per Rapoport, Flacco and the Ravens will resume negotiations immediately after the Super Bowl. "I'm told his camp believes he is playing better than Peyton Manning," Rapoport reported. "Manning makes ($19.2M) a year; expect them to shoot higher than that." The $20 million-per-year figure is clearly Flacco's goal. The Ravens ought to be kicking themselves for not locking up Flacco when his asking price was more reasonable late last offseason.

 

 

 

he will not even get 15 million a year, from any team. he has never thrown for less then 10 INT's (Manning has), he has never thrown for more then 25 TD's in a season, (Manning has) and this year is the first year he has come close to touching 4,000 yards. he is avg. 3600 yards a season. he will be nothing more then a Avg QB in the NFL. he will be lucky to get anything over 12 million a year and even that oculd be pushing it.

[throwing BBZ]

Will Luck throw for 4,000 yds in year two in this offense with a better running game?

[dw49]

Will Luck throw for 4,000 yds in year two in this offense with a better running game?

 

 

 

Dunno but if he could lead us to 11 wins with the 2012 team , just think what he'll be able to do with a better offense. Who cares about the yards , we had enough of great stas and early exits from playoffs the previous 14 years. I thinkthis guy Luck is clutch. Didn't all thsoe great throws on 3rd and long excite you ? If not ...how about the 7 come from behind wins ? 

[Coltsman1788]

So you think because Flacco will likely demand a premium QB contract the Colts are guaranteed a SB in 5 years?

 

 

Boy......I wish that's how it worked. 

Don't forget that in addition to the above because "we have Luck for the next 4 years at $5 million per" the Colts are shoe-ins to win a Lombardi in five years.   There are so many holes with this line of reasoning...it makes my head hurt.   

[Coltsman1788]

Don't forget that in addition to the above because "we have Luck for the next 4 years at $5 million per" the Colts are shoe-ins to win a Lombardi in five years.   There are so many holes with this line of reasoning...it makes my head hurt.   

 

Edit:  After reading PAColts56 post #42...I think his post was a more coherent way of trying to express the point that the OP was trying to make.  The point is that the Colts will be in relatively good cap shape as opposed to some of the other current contenders such as the Ravens.  This does not guarantee that Indy will be in a Super Bowl in 5 years just that they could be in a better position to maintain their key players over that period which means that they hopefully will be able to maintain a balanced roster on both sides of the ball and contend over that span.  When guys start entering into their second contracts, i.e. Luck, it will cost more to maintain them and cutbacks will have to be made in other areas.  I think what the OP wanted to get at is that certain teams are already at that point whereas the Colts have some time and a window of opportunity to try and take advantage of that before it starts to affect them too.

[AFCSouth]

Flacco is a system QB with a big arm.  He is a second tier QB.

 

The Colts will win the Super Bowl within 3 years

I actually think that Flacco Is pretty good.

I think that we will win the AFCSouth for the foreseeable future, as long as we strengthen the offensive line in the draft and FA in order to lock down JJ Watt. Although he can't determine the outcome of a game, he can be an annoyance at times and is worth getting a specific player to neutralize him.

As for winning the Super Bowl, it takes a few breaks, but winning the division will put us in a good spot year after year.

[dw49]

he will not even get 15 million a year, from any team. he has never thrown for less then 10 INT's (Manning has), he has never thrown for more then 25 TD's in a season, (Manning has) and this year is the first year he has come close to touching 4,000 yards. he is avg. 3600 yards a season. he will be nothing more then a Avg QB in the NFL. he will be lucky to get anything over 12 million a year and even that oculd be pushing it.

Looks like Ozzie Newsome might not agree with you....

 

 

 

 

Speaking about Joe Flacco's contract situation Tuesday, GM Ozzie Newsome guaranteed he'll be a Raven in 2013.

"We'll be able to get that thing done," Newsome said. "(He'll) be playing football for us next year. And sometimes that's all you can look forward to is just next year." Newsome strongly hinted that the Ravens will franchise tag Flacco before free agency, and then work toward a long-term agreement before the July deadline. According to CBS' Jason La Canfora, an average annual value of $20 million is Flacco's "magic number." For what it's worth, Newsome says the sides have a "good understanding" of where the other stands.

[dw49]

Edit:  After reading PAColts56 post #42...I think his post was a more coherent way of trying to express the point that the OP was trying to make.  The point is that the Colts will be in relatively good cap shape as opposed to some of the other current contenders such as the Ravens.  This does not guarantee that Indy will be in a Super Bowl in 5 years just that they could be in a better position to maintain their key players over that period which means that they hopefully will be able to maintain a balanced roster on both sides of the ball and contend over that span.  When guys start entering into their second contracts, i.e. Luck, it will cost more to maintain them and cutbacks will have to be made in other areas.  I think what the OP wanted to get at is that certain teams are already at that point whereas the Colts have some time and a window of opportunity to try and take advantage of that before it starts to affect them too.

 

 

I would have thought that I really didn't need to be more "coherent" as I gave the "audiance " credit for being able to figure out that this was a "cap issue." For fhose that could not figure tjhat out , I apologize.

[Superman]

he will not even get 15 million a year, from any team. he has never thrown for less then 10 INT's (Manning has), he has never thrown for more then 25 TD's in a season, (Manning has) and this year is the first year he has come close to touching 4,000 yards. he is avg. 3600 yards a season. he will be nothing more then a Avg QB in the NFL. he will be lucky to get anything over 12 million a year and even that oculd be pushing it.

 

Tom Brady's second contract came right after his third Super Bowl, and it was six years, $60m. Of course, that was eight years ago now. (Yes, Pats fans, Brady hasn't won a Super Bowl in EIGHT YEARS!!! ;))

 

Different time, and money has gone up since then. But he wasn't paid near the kind of money Michael Vick and Peyton Manning had just gotten. He was already a better quarterback than Flacco is now.

 

I can see Flacco demanding top five quarterback money (the Jets really screwed things up with that Sanchez contract, and it's going to cost the Ravens, and us when Luck's deal is up). But I think you're probably looking at six years, $75m, something like that. They can transition tag him for around $13m in 2013, or franchise tag him for about $15m. They have the leverage.

[John Waylon]

So wait... we win a Super Bowl in the next 5 years because our QB is cheap?

Or because Flacco wants to be the top paid QB in the league?

Or because Flacco feels he's playing better than Peyton Manning?

:|

I simply do not follow the logic driving this thread.

[dw49]

Tom Brady's second contract came right after his third Super Bowl, and it was six years, $60m. Of course, that was eight years ago now. (Yes, Pats fans, Brady hasn't won a Super Bowl in EIGHT YEARS!!! ;))

 

Different time, and money has gone up since then. But he wasn't paid near the kind of money Michael Vick and Peyton Manning had just gotten. He was already a better quarterback than Flacco is now.

 

I can see Flacco demanding top five quarterback money (the Jets really screwed things up with that Sanchez contract, and it's going to cost the Ravens, and us when Luck's deal is up). But I think you're probably looking at six years, $75m, something like that. They can transition tag him for around $13m in 2013, or franchise tag him for about $15m. They have the leverage

 

 

 

I think you are a bit "off" on this one. First of all , when Brady signed in 2008 , that was viewed as a team friendly contract. However I'm sure it was still the 2nd or 3rd largets contact given to a QB.. maybe even the largest when it was written. Vick signed the 100 mill one a year later but that was a 10 year deal and hard to say it it was really that much better than Brady's . I'm sure those last years of that contact had monster paydays. Manning signed a much larger contract the following year.  Unless Flacco has a career changing game Sunday , his worth is not going to be a little more than 12 mill per year as you suggest. I haven't ever seen a team use the Transition Tag to keep a QB. Not saying that it didn't happen a bunch of years ago but not going to happen heer. You say the ravens have the leverage ? Not sure I agree there either. The franchise tag is a little over 15 mill and that would take care of 2013 at less than Flaco is asking. The following year it would go to over 18 mill and then I belive they would lose him. Plus there is no wiggle room if they might need some cap relief in 2012 or 2013. It sounds to me that Newsome ad theRavens want to keep Flaco and this would in all likelyhood mean placing the franchise tag on him while they work out a long term deal. I will be shocked amazed and will call you uncle Superman if it is a 6 year deal at around 75 mill. Look for something that averages at least 17-18 mill per year. Now if his value is somehow really affected by injury or a horrible performance Sunday , that's a different story.

[dw49]

So wait... we win a Super Bowl in the next 5 years because our QB is cheap? Or because Flacco wants to be the top paid QB in the league? Or because Flacco feels he's playing better than Peyton Manning? :| I simply do not follow the logic driving this thread 

 

 

There is no "real logic" to the thread. Just making a point that we , IMO , have a great QB at a very low price for the following 3-4 years. It gives us an advantage as guys like Flacco are now costing in the neighborhood of 17 to 20 mill a year. Do I really know if this means SB ? I guess not . I'm just a huge believer in Luck and Grigson. We have the makings of a very nice team with only one player making around 10 mill going forward , that being Mathis. Even Wayne is only a bit over 7 mill. and if he falls off next year , we could cut him without much of a cap hit for 2014. So I guess I feel that we are in a great possition going forward. If you feel that has "no logic" what can I say. Also be aware that I never commented on who is better Flacco or Manning . IMO , it has nothing to do with the thread. I only was showing what "appears" to be the market for a guy like Flacco. Hope that helps you out a bit . I'll try to add a little more to my threads or posts so everyone can understand the point. I'll also title it more like "Why I THINK he Colts will win A SB in the next 5 years.  

[dw49]

Tom Brady's second contract came right after his third Super Bowl, and it was six years, $60m. Of course, that was eight years ago now. (Yes, Pats fans, Brady hasn't won a Super Bowl in EIGHT YEARS!!! ;))

 

Different time, and money has gone up since then. But he wasn't paid near the kind of money Michael Vick and Peyton Manning had just gotten. He was already a better quarterback than Flacco is now.

 

I can see Flacco demanding top five quarterback money (the Jets really screwed things up with that Sanchez contract, and it's going to cost the Ravens, and us when Luck's deal is up). But I think you're probably looking at six years, $75m, something like that. They can transition tag him for around $13m in 2013, or franchise tag him for about $15m. They have the leverage.

 

 

 

I said in a reply to this post that The Ravens would lose Flacco after the 2nd franchise tag of 18 million was used. That is incorrect as they could use it for a 3rd year at around 22 million. Not a good option but that's deal... not two years as I said earlier.

[southwest1]

They said Flacco was better than Peyton? Yep...... Society has Failed Ladies & Gentleman

"playing better", not "is better". Dudes just on a roll right now.

He still had the better game...

Flacco is not worth top tier money. Yes, he has consistently won Playoff games I will admit, but GM Ozzie Newsome isn't dumb enough to back up the Brinks Bank truck or give Flacco a blank check. I don't give a darn if he wins the SB or not. 1 above average season an elite QB status Flacco has not reached. He's nowhere near Brady, Manning, or Brees. Put Flacco on a team with a poor o-line & a lackluster running game & see what he does. Put him on the 2012 Steelers & Flacco would get demolished nearly every week. Top tier money eligibility to me is remove him from a great roster & put him on a crappy team with no o-line protection & if he still could win at least 10 games he's an elite QB. Flacco is decent; he's not great IMO.

The Steelers are an above average veteran squad that typically gets to the Playoffs, but their o-line is just sad...

[braveheartcolt]

So Flacco's deal / next deal is the key behind our SB chances in the next 5 years. No, just kiddin. Clearly having a nice cap situation on top of a nice roster, with a potential stud at QB will help us get a championship, but there is so much more to it than that. And probably the biggest thing will be getting fortunate....with injuries, bounce of the ball, schedule, flags, weather and darn good drafting / contractual acumen.

 

Oh, and we need to play well, cash rich or not.

[southwest1]

I can see Flacco demanding top five quarterback money (the Jets really screwed things up with that Sanchez contract, and it's going to cost the Ravens, and us when Luck's deal is up). But I think you're probably looking at six years, $75m, something like that. They can transition tag him for around $13m in 2013, or franchise tag him for about $15m. They have the leverage.

No way is Ozzie gonna slap the franchise tag on Flacco IMO. After Ray Lewis leaves, Flacco is the face of the Ravens franchise & Flacco isn't going to settle for that either. He wants serious guaranteed money upfront & you don't get premier cash with the franchise tag. The Ravens need Flacco more than he needs them. Leverage 101: Know which bargaining entity is more desperate or the weakest link. 

[cmgww]

Awesome job of turning the OPs original point into a peeing match about Flacco...bravo!

I think having Luck under the new rookie salary is a big benefit. It frees the Colts to go after surrounding pieces to get back to the top sooner rather than later. Grison will work his magic IMO, and the Colts should be division champs next season if we get some breaks. I think it is 2-3 years before we are legit SB contenders. But I also thought we would be 5-7 wins at best this past season. Luck has "it" along with the tangibles. He will only get better in an offense more suited to his strengths, with a better line around him. Pagano will shore up that D, just needs some more pieces to fit. We are in for good things, and should be blessed we landed Luck right after Manning. Literally ONE down year...and if all goes well, another run of dominance.

[throwing BBZ]

Having $12-$15 Million a year to spend that Some of your competion does not have should be good for depth.

An Ex: Brees at $10M per, Rodgers $7M as I recall. Their teams had 15-16 players making more than $1M in their SB Winning years when the Colts had 9 in our SB Loss.

Who else will have that advantage.

Seattle will have about $4M a year more than us over this time.

Washington the same as us.

Cam Newton will sign a Cap friendly deal.

Kaepernik too I whould expect.

All NFC Teams that should have Elite QB`s in 5 years. Lots of competition.

But most likely about 10 of the 2012 players will be here 4-5 years from now.

That means the roster will be loaded with younger players. Good enough for a run we should certainly Hope.

[dw49]

Couple of things..

 

 

Of coarse I know that having Luck for the next 3 years at 5 mill and he following year at around 14 mill will not guarantee us a SB win. I was just trying to make a "catchy title " to get prople to read the the

read. Any * knows that having maybe a 12-15 mill cap advantage over most other teams with a great QB. I say most as Kapernak , RG3 and Wilson also will play with small deals. It's a nice advantage and considering how the rookies played this year , it even goes a bit further than Luck. However we will probably "give a bit of this advantage" back this off season as we spend our cap room on what could be some high priced players. 

 

 

Joe Flacco will sign a deal well over 15 mil per year Minimum 17 mill per year. When I bring up how I was right , I'm hoping the detractors don't come up with something like "it's only because he played swell Sunday." I mentioned before that the only way this doesn't happen is if he poops the bed badly Sunday. I'll reract that now and say Flacco get's the big payday even if he throws 5 ints in the SB.

[Captain Americolt]

Flacco is not worth top tier money. Yes, he has consistently won Playoff games I will admit, but GM Ozzie Newsome isn't dumb enough to back up the Brinks Bank truck or give Flacco a blank check. I don't give a darn if he wins the SB or not. 1 above average season an elite QB status Flacco has not reached. He's nowhere near Brady, Manning, or Brees. Put Flacco on a team with a poor o-line & a lackluster running game & see what he does. Put him on the 2012 Steelers & Flacco would get demolished nearly every week. Top tier money eligibility to me is remove him from a great roster & put him on a crappy team with no o-line protection & if he still could win at least 10 games he's an elite QB. Flacco is decent; he's not great IMO.

The Steelers are an above average veteran squad that typically gets to the Playoffs, but their o-line is just sad...

I never said Flacco was elite, nor near the level of Manning. I was just saying that he has been on a roll lately in this post-season, playing better than Manning in their head to head matchup.

[In Luck We Trust]

Looks like Ozzie Newsome might not agree with you....

 

 

 

 

Speaking about Joe Flacco's contract situation Tuesday, GM Ozzie Newsome guaranteed he'll be a Raven in 2013.

"We'll be able to get that thing done," Newsome said. "(He'll) be playing football for us next year. And sometimes that's all you can look forward to is just next year." Newsome strongly hinted that the Ravens will franchise tag Flacco before free agency, and then work toward a long-term agreement before the July deadline. According to CBS' Jason La Canfora, an average annual value of $20 million is Flacco's "magic number." For what it's worth, Newsome says the sides have a "good understanding" of where the other stands.

The ravens would be stupid to give him that kind of money. he is no where near the level of Manning,Brady,Brees, Rodgers, Etc.BUT you do what you have to do inorder to keep your QB, especially with the crop of QB's coming into this years draft. 

[coltsfanatic24]

I think will make superbowl by year 3 with the new key free agents adapting to the system.

[dw49]

The ravens would be stupid to give him that kind of money. he is no where near the level of Manning,Brady,Brees, Rodgers, Etc.BUT you do what you have to do inorder to keep your QB, especially with the crop of QB's coming into this years draft. 

 

 

 

I'm not even going into how good Flacco is or isn't . I just am absolutely 100% sure I will be right on this. He will not get a contract like 6 years at 65mill as many suggest. He will for sure get something around 17 mill and up. 

 

Let me ask the "nay sayers" this. Please give me the last instance where the team won and the QB lost in these type negotiations. Bet you can't do it.

 

Here's the problem. Either Balt franchises him at 15 + mill for 2013 and the 18+ mill for 2014 or they probably disappear from  disappear the list of teams that are strong contenders  going forward. They could go 4-5 years before they can obtain another good to very good QB. That means their best bet might be to have a 3-4 win season if they let Flacco walk.

 

One more thing... say what you want about Flacco ,but he did outplay Brfady two consecutgive yeafrs in the AFCCG. If not for a perfect pass dropped ,it would have been 2 consecutive SB's

[Superman]

I think you are a bit "off" on this one. First of all , when Brady signed in 2008 , that was viewed as a team friendly contract. However I'm sure it was still the 2nd or 3rd largets contact given to a QB.. maybe even the largest when it was written. Vick signed the 100 mill one a year later but that was a 10 year deal and hard to say it it was really that much better than Brady's . I'm sure those last years of that contact had monster paydays. Manning signed a much larger contract the following year.

 

That Brady contract you're referring to was actually in 2010, and it was his third contract. It did make Brady the highest paid player in the league, but it could also be considered team friendly, as it kept his cap hits low for the first two years. Then he restructured again before this season to lower his third year cap hit.

 

I'm talking about the previous contract, in 2005. Right after they beat the Eagles in the Super Bowl. It was six years, $60 million.

http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/columns/story?columnist=pasquarelli_len&id=2054072

 

Unless Flacco has a career changing game Sunday , his worth is not going to be a little more than 12 mill per year as you suggest. I haven't ever seen a team use the Transition Tag to keep a QB. Not saying that it didn't happen a bunch of years ago but not going to happen heer. You say the ravens have the leverage ? Not sure I agree there either. The franchise tag is a little over 15 mill and that would take care of 2013 at less than Flaco is asking. The following year it would go to over 18 mill and then I belive they would lose him. Plus there is no wiggle room if they might need some cap relief in 2012 or 2013. It sounds to me that Newsome ad theRavens want to keep Flaco and this would in all likelyhood mean placing the franchise tag on him while they work out a long term deal. I will be shocked amazed and will call you uncle Superman if it is a 6 year deal at around 75 mill. Look for something that averages at least 17-18 mill per year. Now if his value is somehow really affected by injury or a horrible performance Sunday , that's a different story.

 

The transition tag would be perfect for a quarterback like Flacco. He's not in the elite realm, despite the fact that some are arguing he is. He's worth much more to the Ravens than he is to any other team. If they gave him the transition tag, another team would have to part with two first rounders. I don't think any other team values Flacco that greatly. Not only that, the Ravens would have right of first refusal, meaning they could simply match any offer sheet Flacco did get signed to. The new CBA restricts poison pills, so the transition tag is an option. And if they wanted to play hardball, it's probably their best option.

 

If they use the exclusive franchise tag, then they have until July to work out a long term deal. This is after free agency and the draft, and they'll know at that point whether they have the cap space to carry him at $15m for 2013. That will probably prove difficult, as they have a lot of free agents in 2013.

 

Maybe my projections on his eventual long term deal are off. But I don't think he's worth more than that. I recognize his value to their team, and his development over the past five years. They certainly don't want him to leave in free agency. But I don't think he's worthy of being paid top five quarterback money. Sorry. If they can keep him in the $12-13m/year range, they will have done well.

[dw49]

That Brady contract you're referring to was actually in 2010, and it was his third contract. It did make Brady the highest paid player in the league, but it could also be considered team friendly, as it kept his cap hits low for the first two years. Then he restructured again before this season to lower his third year cap hit.

 

I'm talking about the previous contract, in 2005. Right after they beat the Eagles in the Super Bowl. It was six years, $60 million.

http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/columns/story?columnist=pasquarelli_len&id=2054072

 

 

The transition tag would be perfect for a quarterback like Flacco. He's not in the elite realm, despite the fact that some are arguing he is. He's worth much more to the Ravens than he is to any other team. If they gave him the transition tag, another team would have to part with two first rounders. I don't think any other team values Flacco that greatly. Not only that, the Ravens would have right of first refusal, meaning they could simply match any offer sheet Flacco did get signed to. The new CBA restricts poison pills, so the transition tag is an option. And if they wanted to play hardball, it's probably their best option.

 

If they use the exclusive franchise tag, then they have until July to work out a long term deal. This is after free agency and the draft, and they'll know at that point whether they have the cap space to carry him at $15m for 2013. That will probably prove difficult, as they have a lot of free agents in 2013.

 

Maybe my projections on his eventual long term deal are off. But I don't think he's worth more than that. I recognize his value to their team, and his development over the past five years. They certainly don't want him to leave in free agency. But I don't think he's worthy of being paid top five quarterback money. Sorry. If they can keep him in the $12-13m/year range, they will have done well.

 

 

 

I don't even remember what our issue was with the 60 mill contract Brady signed way back then. First of all the market is so much higher now than then. Secondly it's now such a QB driven league that teams can't even think about contending for a SB without a top notch QB.

 

As far as how you view Flacco , I'm won't even bother to debate you on that. I do know that the Ravens should have beat the Pats last year as well as this year. The guy has played well in the playoffs .. no question about that. Is he a top 3-4 QB or what ever it is that you consider "elite ? " It doesn't matter as far as our discussion goes. You say he gets around 6 years 65 mill. I say minimum of 17 mill a year. I said in another post in this thread "when is the last time you saw a QB lose one of these negotiation battles. " So I'll stick with the statement that I'm 100% sure that he gets far more than 12-13 mill a year. 17 min and maybe close to the 20. Not saying good deal , bad deal , fair or stupid deal. He's going to get his money.

 

I also said that I can't remember the last time the "transition tag " was used in this type situation. I think you are confused big time on how the transition tag works. Were you around when the Colts put it on Quentin Coryatt ? Pretty sure they used it on him and ended up matching the Jags offer sheet. Anyway , here is how that tag works...

 

 

 

• A transition player designation gives the club a first-refusal right to match within seven days an offer sheet given to the player by another club after his contract expires. If the club matches, it retains the player. If it does not match, it receives no compensation. Transition players can be signed from March 3 through July 22."