Arians is probably a better HC than OC. Luck needs a system that fits him

[corgi]

Griffin hasn't had a big losing streak yet, and hasn't been chastised on national TV for playing bad since he's been in the NFL, his team also hasn't lost by a large margin. It's easy to have a good attitude and confidence when you are winning, and the media's darling. When Washington goes on a 3-4 game losing streak, and he makes mistakes that cost is team the game that is when we will get a better idea of who RGIII is. Luck handles criticism like a pro, and places loses solely on himself, that says a lot about his character and leadership ability. His game will continue to get better I have no doubts about that.

[krunk]

The guy threw for 4700 yards in that offense. Why would you NOT want running a system like that? He has the receivers AND running game to spread defenses out like he did at Baylor, but in all actuality the Shanahan's have toned that back and are having him throw more low risk passes. How in the world can you bash a QB, which I have seen in other threads, for taking what the defense is giving him. Its smart football PERIOD and a philosophy that I wish Arians would recognize and use with Luck.

There is absolutely no reason, right now, to have passing tree that is as deep as the one that Arians is running. He's putting Luck into a lot of high pressure/high risk situations that Luck doesn't need to be in, in terms of plays taking way to long to develop. This isn't to say that Luck hasn't had his share of problems either but its impressive how he's handled it and made the most of it.

Simplicity, much like a good portion of last weeks game, can go a LONG way for Luck right now. From a skillset perspective he doesn't really have much to prove because he's shown there isn't much that he's lacking, but that doesn't mean the game needs to be made harder than what it already is for him.

I think many here are wanting to simplify things for Luck because in our minds he's this young rookie in the big NFL world, but we tend to forget that Luck asks to be challenged with this stuff. We've seen several articles where Arians and the staff give Andrew information that would take a normal rookie 3 weeks to learn, and Andrew takes not even a week to study it and then he comes back and says "Ok what's next?" Other stories have Andrew calling things in practice out of the playbook that are way above his team mates heads. He's already graduated college in terms of his understanding of the playbook, and his team mates are still in their Sophomore year in terms of where they are at with their understanding.

If you take the above into account, I don't think we can say that it is Arians who is complicating things for Luck. I think Luck is asking to be challenged in this way because of his gift of absorbing information. As long as Luck is executing the play correctly, Arians will continue to give him complicated things out of the offense. I think Andrew is okay with it.

[fatboy]

There is no reason to be jealous or looking over our shoulder at RG3. He's a fine QB and projects well into the future. RG3 is the current darling of the media - and some of his plays have been eyepopping. What he's accomplished so far has been impressive, and he is obviously an accurate thrower first, and can definitely throw the long ball if needed. However, Luck has been fine - sporting a 3-3 record with a patchwork team full of rookies and dead money. I'd say both QBs are doing quite well. If there is a constant comparison/argument between the two in the coming years, it would only because they are both doing well; and that I can live with!

[krunk]

Griffin hasn't had a big losing streak yet, and hasn't been chastised on national TV for playing bad since he's been in the NFL, his team also hasn't lost by a large margin. It's easy to have a good attitude and confidence when you are winning, and the media's darling. When Washington goes on a 3-4 game losing streak, and he makes mistakes that cost is team the game that is when we will get a better idea of who RGIII is. Luck handles criticism like a pro, and places loses solely on himself, that says a lot about his character and leadership ability. His game will continue to get better I have no doubts about that.

The Redskins and the Colts have similar records. You could make an argument that we don't know who Andrew is until we lose 3 or 4 games in a row. Andrew is not used to losing at any point in his entire football career.. From what I have learned of Luck in his time with the Colts I think he could handle it. I haven't seen anything from RG3 to suggest that he couldn't either. If you're just looking at records, I think you can say the same for both guys. We don't know how they would react to several consecutive losses. Basing things solely on our OPINIONS, many of us think they should be fine. There are no real facts to prove either way.

[Gavin]

I think many here are wanting to simplify things for Luck because in our minds he's this young rookie in the big NFL world, but we tend to forget that Luck asks to be challenged with this stuff. We've seen several articles where Arians and the staff give Andrew information that would take a normal rookie 3 weeks to learn, and Andrew takes not even a week to study it and then he comes back and says "Ok what's next?" Other stories have Andrew calling things in practice out of the playbook that are way above his team mates heads. He's already graduated college in terms of his understanding of the playbook, and his team mates are still in their Sophomore year in terms of where they are at with their understanding.

If you take the above into account, I don't think we can say that it is Arians who is complicating things for Luck. I think Luck is asking to be challenged in this way because of his gift of absorbing information. As long as Luck is executing the play correctly, Arians will continue to give him complicated things out of the offense. I think Andrew is okay with it.

Its not about what Luck can handle mentally or even what our entire offense can handle mentally in my opinion (although clearly they are not all on the same page) Its about the play calling, drawing up long developing plays, hanging Luck out to dry on three and 4 wide receiver sets several times a game (although I liked the play calling Arians did vs the Browns) wont work behind this patch work (for lack of several better terms) offensive line. Luck certainly does not help the O Line any by hanging onto the ball his fair share of plays (alot actually) but Arians has not done Luck any favors, well at least until the Browns game which in my opinion offensively was easily the best play calling of the year over the course of most of the game.Once again its not that Arians is giving Luck to much X's and O's wise its that he is putting Luck in unnecessarily bad situations at times to convert those X's and O's into successes

[lollygagger8]

RG3 would excel in an offense that didn't ask him to option as well. I'm sorry, but he is way more accurate than Luck. He would have no problems in a traditional offense.

I'd be more accurate than Luck too if all I threw were 1-5 yards dink and dunk passes all day.

I think that both Luck and RG3 are both great QB's, but I don't think anyone could disagree RG3 has a much better supporting cast around him than Luck has. O-Line, RB, good receivers, and a coaching staff that tailor's the offense to match his talents.

That said, let's give the two rookie QB's the whole year before we start chastizing them.

[USAFHoosier]

That still goes to Shanahan putting RG3 in a better situation. He has a history of getting yards out of unheralded running backs. That goes to scheme. Sure it helps. How could it not.

I believe beyond a shadow of a doubt that if Pagano had hired a coach with ties to the WCO that Luck would be in a better spot to succeed. His accuracy has been a bit disappointing for one thing, but I don't think Arians is doing him any favors. The two teams with the highest AIR yards(NYJ/IND), also have the two least accurate passes based on completion %. Maybe that is a coincidence. Maybe it isn't.

The Browns lead the NFL in YAC, The Patriots & Packers are 2nd & 3rd, those two quarterbacks are constantly hitting wide open receivers for the most part. They are also two outstanding quarterbacks, but.

I believe it was the opening play last Sunday. Some with it DVR'd or access to replay can confirm, but I know it was the opening drive but I want to say the opening play. Luck hits Wayne where Wayne has to reach behind him for the pass. If the ball had the same location on the otherside of his body, then it Wayne had some room to run after the catch.

The running game certainly helps, and there are various schemes that help teams set up the running game. Two of your top 5 rushing attacks based on yards employ basically the same scheme (Washington/Houston). Arian Foster is a horse but wasn't he undrafted? Morris has had a great year so far and he was a 6th rounder. Terrell Davis with Shanahan in Denver, another late round steal. I'm not taking anything away from these backs but the scheme has a lot to do with it.

Foster was undrafted but was a projected second rounder before his senior year. He had a few fumbles and played through injuries the whole year. Then pulled his hammy before the combine and put up bad run times. I was calling for us to take him but Houston got him undrafted then released him and he went on the practice squad for a while. The only college football I watch is Tennesse and some Purdue games.

[jbaron04]

There are only two things Vick and RGIII have in common. One of them is speed and the other has nothing to do with football or anything else, really. Griffin is a more polished player now than Vick ever was.

Teams have 7 weeks of game footage on this offense. No one has even come close to stopping it. Cam Newton's production started to tail off after 2 weeks and much of his production as a rookie came in garbage time against prevent defenses.

I saw more than a few Panthers games in 2011 and it's really a night and day difference from what the Skins are doing. Our coaching staff took what Griffin did in college and integrated it into a true pro-style offense. We will give you more looks and do more things than anything in Chud's playbook and Griffin's level of execution is worlds better than Cam's. He's faster, he's more decisive, he's more accurate, he has better field vision, and he doesn't come with the crappy attitude.

We don't actually pick up 5+ yards consistently. The reality is that Alfred Morris doesn't often have that much space with our run blocking. What he does have going for him is extreme lower body strength that enables him to churn out additional yards after contact that he has no business getting. We also tend to get very good blocking from our skill position players (backs, receivers, and TEs), which has helped both Morris and Griffin tremendously in springing a few big runs here and there.

A successful running game isn't about getting 4 or more yards on a carry, it's about rarely getting less than 2 or 3 yards and consistently improving your down and distance situations.

Rg3 is a very good player but what I'm saying to you is even offense has a blue print to stop , pats saints packs every offense , soon teams our gonna stop spying an say lets man press an send pressure of the edges an get after him rg3 has strait line speed but doesn't have the althletism of mike Vick his little frail body will break down after two or three years with the big boys but he's a great talent

[krunk]

Its not about what Luck can handle mentally or even what our entire offense can handle mentally in my opinion (although clearly they are not all on the same page) Its about the play calling, drawing up long developing plays, hanging Luck out to dry on three and 4 wide receiver sets several times a game (although I liked the play calling Arians did vs the Browns) wont work behind this patch work (for lack of several better terms) offensive line. Luck certainly does not help the O Line any by hanging onto the ball his fair share of plays (alot actually) but Arians has not done Luck any favors, well at least until the Browns game which in my opinion offensively was easily the best play calling of the year over the course of most of the game.Once again its not that Arians is giving Luck to much X's and O's wise its that he is putting Luck in unnecessarily bad situations at times to convert those X's and O's into successes

I agree with your stance for the most part. But what is there to do when the running game is failing? In terms of passing the protection has not been there either for the most part. When they have to go into a passing situation, I think he would have no where to throw the ball if they went with less than 3 or 4 WR sets. I think that would be a failure as well.

I'm not sure if Arians draws the plays up to be long developing on purpose. HIs offense has several short crossing routes in the passing game to give a qb time to dump the ball quickly. I've also seen us run several quick WR screens that would help as well. They just haven't worked well. Part of the problem as you stated, has been Luck holding on to the ball for too long. The other issue has been the lack of a consistent running game. I like the play calling in the Browns game, but that was a unique game for us. We haven't had the opportunity to run for most of the season. I am much more satisfied with Arians play calling when we are able to run. I felt the same way in the 2nd half of the Packers game as well. I don't think Arians is opposed to having a balanced offense, I think he likes to run. It just hasn't been there.

[krunk]

I'd be more accurate than Luck too if all I threw were 1-5 yards dink and dunk passes all day.

I think that both Luck and RG3 are both great QB's, but I don't think anyone could disagree RG3 has a much better supporting cast around him than Luck has. O-Line, RB, good receivers, and a coaching staff that tailor's the offense to match his talents.

That said, let's give the two rookie QB's the whole year before we start chastizing them.

5 yard passes don't have a whole lot to do with accuracy. It has more to do with completion percentage.

When I'm speaking of accuracy, I'm speaking of the ability to complete difficult throws. Luck has not been

as good as RG3 when it comes to making the difficult throws. When it comes to fitting balls into tight windows,

and making throws that require a lot of touch. Not many of us can say that has been Andrews strength.

I'm not bashing him, or saying I like RG better. I'm just stating a fact.

[Superman]

Y Banana to the playoffs.

Interesting you mention that. We ran quite a few plays Sunday that resembled Y Banana, or had similar characteristics. Including the second touchdown that Luck ran into the end zone. The first offensive play that went 30 yards to Reggie Wayne also had similarities. We just ran those plays with no fullback (which is the Y), but the short outlet pass was there in both cases.

I'm not one who thinks we should be married to a particular offensive system. I think that your offense should be a blend of a lot of different things, and that it should be capable of taking advantage of mismatches. When it comes to Arians offense, I don't have a problem with the principles of it. I just don't like his predictable play calling, and I think he uses motion too much and for the wrong reasons. But a different offense wouldn't necessarily fix either of those two things. And, if Luck's mental aptitude is anywhere near what people say it is (and it seems like it is), then he'll be able to handle running a different offense than he ran in college. He's a big boy. We don't have to cater everything to what he wants.

[krunk]

Interesting you mention that. We ran quite a few plays Sunday that resembled Y Banana, or had similar characteristics. Including the second touchdown that Luck ran into the end zone. The first offensive play that went 30 yards to Reggie Wayne also had similarities. We just ran those plays with no fullback (which is the Y), but the short outlet pass was there in both cases.

I'm not one who thinks we should be married to a particular offensive system. I think that your offense should be a blend of a lot of different things, and that it should be capable of taking advantage of mismatches. When it comes to Arians offense, I don't have a problem with the principles of it. I just don't like his predictable play calling, and I think he uses motion too much and for the wrong reasons. But a different offense wouldn't necessarily fix either of those two things. And, if Luck's mental aptitude is anywhere near what people say it is (and it seems like it is), then he'll be able to handle running a different offense than he ran in college. He's a big boy. We don't have to cater everything to what he wants.

It's refreshing to see that you noticed this. I thought I was the only one. This is a different offense, but there are many principles of the West Coast offense that I've seen executed with Arians scheme in some of our games. I don't think Andrew is a total fish out of water in this offense. He's going to really kill this thing the longer he remains in it.

[lollygagger8]

5 yard passes don't have a whole lot to do with accuracy. It has more to do with completion percentage.

When I'm speaking of accuracy, I'm speaking of the ability to complete difficult throws. Luck has not been

as good as RG3 when it comes to making the difficult throws. When it comes to fitting balls into tight windows,

and making throws that require a lot of touch. Not many of us can say that has been Andrews strength.

I'm not bashing him, or saying I like RG better. I'm just stating a fact.

While I can't disagree it doesn't bump your completion percetage, it's a WHOLE lot easier to throw 5 yard passes accurately and get them to the intended target than 20 yard passes. Fact.

[krunk]

While I can't disagree it doesn't bump your completion percetage, it's a WHOLE lot easier to throw 5 yard passes accurately and get them to the intended target than 20 yard passes. Fact.

You are correct, but Adrew has even missed some of those on occasion.

[Gavin]

Arians needs to throw short to throw long and hopefully if we can get the running game going like we did somewhat in the last game then we can use play action, rolling Luck out is good to

[Thewholefnshow28]

RG is smarter and less all about himself vs. Vick and (especially) Cam. RG will hit some problem times, but it won't get him down (for too long) and he'll adapt and get through. I'm still extremely happy with our franchise QB pick though.

This is what I was thinking reading everyone calling him a Vick or Newton 2.0. it is like they just see that he can run and automatically assume he will stay that way. RG3 three has one thing Vick and Newton do not have and that is a head on his shoulder. The guy is smart, tough, and is willing to work to get better. The Shanahans have done a superb job in developing the offense around RG3 during his rookie season. I am sure as RG3 progresses the playbook will progress as well.

The really do not have a problem with our offense at all. I just do not think we have all the personnel to run it Arian's vertical passing offense. As fast as Hilton is he is no where near as good as Wallace. Our offensive line is poor which forces our TEs and RBs to stay into block which prevents Luck from hitting the checkdown and the higher percentage passes.

I fully expect Luck's number to shoot up next season after we shore up the offensive line and hopefully Hitlon can be that consistent deep threat we need in the Arians offense.

[chrisfarley]

i can now see why the steelers got rid of him. he is a bit arrogant. perhaps that rubbed the HC the wrong way, don't know.

[#12]

i can now see why the steelers got rid of him. he is a bit arrogant.

I don't know, every time I hear him speak, he seems like a pretty agreeable guy. He's also first to admit his mistakes and flaws. Don't recall seeing much of that... from anyone... over the past 14 years.

[FireJimCaldwell]

I agree with most of your post, but don't you think Lucks numbers would be vastly better if he wasn't sailing so many balls over peoples heads, or under throwing people? Luck has even had short throws that he's sailed over the receivers head into the sideline. Several of those throws were literally guaranteed touchdowns if they were thrown correctly.

Some of his short throws have been dropped by receivers as well. I also think a lot of the simpler things(play action) we've wanted to do with Luck have been snuffed out due to lack of protection in the run game. I will say it looks like the run blocking is starting to get better as we are able to keep the same lineman on the field.

Most certainly. The receiver's have adjusted to throws quite a bit or his competition %, would be lower than it is. The inaccuracy isn't about the low cmp%. It's about the throws them self not being put in the "best" place. There have been plenty of examples of off-target throws that have been hauled in which is great, but an on-target throw would have resulted in bigger plays.

It could be something simple like mechanics that need to be tweaked. Some like to point to drops being the reason for the low completion %, but there have been 3+ as many over/under/wide throws than drops.

I think many here are wanting to simplify things for Luck because in our minds he's this young rookie in the big NFL world, but we tend to forget that Luck asks to be challenged with this stuff. We've seen several articles where Arians and the staff give Andrew information that would take a normal rookie 3 weeks to learn, and Andrew takes not even a week to study it and then he comes back and says "Ok what's next?" Other stories have Andrew calling things in practice out of the playbook that are way above his team mates heads. He's already graduated college in terms of his understanding of the playbook, and his team mates are still in their Sophomore year in terms of where they are at with their understanding.

If you take the above into account, I don't think we can say that it is Arians who is complicating things for Luck. I think Luck is asking to be challenged in this way because of his gift of absorbing information. As long as Luck is executing the play correctly, Arians will continue to give him complicated things out of the offense. I think Andrew is okay with it.

I don't think anything needs to be simplified for him, I just think the game plan itself needs to be adjusted. There is no doubt he has a grasp of the playbook, and run anything that Arians calls. A shift in the concentration on where the ball is headed would likely improve things. Having shorter routes and shorter targets, can lead to larger plays due to double moves. It's like running to set up the play-action... Double moves are basically play-action off of a short passing game. I think Gavin has said a few times throw short, to throw long. He's not wrong.

[FireJimCaldwell]

I'd be more accurate than Luck too if all I threw were 1-5 yards dink and dunk passes all day.

I think that both Luck and RG3 are both great QB's, but I don't think anyone could disagree RG3 has a much better supporting cast around him than Luck has. O-Line, RB, good receivers, and a coaching staff that tailor's the offense to match his talents.

That said, let's give the two rookie QB's the whole year before we start chastizing them.

That's fair to a point about the shorter throws.

On throws less than 20 yards Luck completes 56.7% while RG3 completes 74%. When the throws exceed 21yards, the %'s go to 33.3% for Luck and 31.3% for RG3. Luck throws roughly 5% more of these throws than Luck.

Good coaches tailor their offense/defense to their players talents. Which is one reason the Caldwell/Christensen combo should have both been shown the door last year. They didn't do that at all. I don't believe Arians is doing it either.

[Tark The Shark]

Me, personally, I would rather have Pagano as the HC, Arians is already running the offense anyway.

Manusky does an alright job as DC but I would rather have Pagano help running the defense.

This system does fit Luck, the problem is he gets hit a lot because of O-line protection. And the inexperience of the WRs doesn't help.

Luck will fit great into Arians's system, once everyone in the offense knows it.

[#12]

Most certainly. The receiver's have adjusted to throws quite a bit or his competition %, would be lower than it is. The inaccuracy isn't about the low cmp%. It's about the throws them self not being put in the "best" place. There have been plenty of examples of off-target throws that have been hauled in which is great, but an on-target throw would have resulted in bigger plays.

No doubt about that. I criticized him for making one such throw in preseason, thinking it would be a rarity, but it's turned into a pattern.

Here's the thing about Luck: from watching his press conferences, it's obvious he's not happy with his play to date, or content with being 3-3. And that's a good thing. He's watching the film, being self-critical of the same things we see.

[FireJimCaldwell]

No doubt about that. I criticized him for making one such throw in preseason, thinking it would be a rarity, but it's turned into a pattern.

Here's the thing about Luck: from watching his press conferences, it's obvious he's not happy with his play to date, or content with being 3-3. And that's a good thing. He's watching the film, being self-critical of the same things we see.

There is no doubt he's working on it. It will get better with time. As I said somewhere else, maybe this thread it might be something to do with his mechanics where a slight adjustment here or there could fix quite a bit of it. There have been a few throws(mostly longer ones) that have been off by just enough that the receiver couldn't bring it in or his #'s would look better than they are. That could be on the receiver, it could be on the QB, or on any specific play being hurried by pressure, or quite a few attributes. The quarterback is the one throwing the ball and the one that is critiqued/analysed more and that is just the nature of the position. Fair or not that is how it goes.

[#12]

As far as the "fit" goes, I will say this: unless Luck's accuracy improves, these small receivers are a bad fit. If you can't locate a deep ball and take the top off a defense, what difference does the speed make? Currently, it appears he needs a crafty slot receiver who can sit down in a zone and a big wide out who can adjust and fight for the ball.

[krunk]

Most certainly. The receiver's have adjusted to throws quite a bit or his competition %, would be lower than it is. The inaccuracy isn't about the low cmp%. It's about the throws them self not being put in the "best" place. There have been plenty of examples of off-target throws that have been hauled in which is great, but an on-target throw would have resulted in bigger plays.

It could be something simple like mechanics that need to be tweaked. Some like to point to drops being the reason for the low completion %, but there have been 3+ as many over/under/wide throws than drops.

I don't think anything needs to be simplified for him, I just think the game plan itself needs to be adjusted. There is no doubt he has a grasp of the playbook, and run anything that Arians calls. A shift in the concentration on where the ball is headed would likely improve things. Having shorter routes and shorter targets, can lead to larger plays due to double moves. It's like running to set up the play-action... Double moves are basically play-action off of a short passing game. I think Gavin has said a few times throw short, to throw long. He's not wrong.

To me we have plenty of short passing in this scheme in the form of crossing routes, short passes to the rb, and quick wr screens.. The throw many times is sailed, or underthrown, or in the case of the screens it doesn't gain many yards. When we do get the right mix, and we go deep we are having the same issue. Sailed or underthrown balls. If Andrew could be more crisp with this issue we would be alot more effective, and we can do more of what Gavin is suggesting because I think it's right as well.

In my opinion it doesn't appear to be an Arians issue except for when we pass the ball too much, but it's almost hard to blame Arians when you look at how bad our running game has been. If we are showing in a game that we are making progress with the run, Arians has mixed it in pretty good. The Browns and Packers games are good examples.

[krunk]

Sailed and under thrown balls are the biggest issue to me. There is no way in heck we should have not scored more than one touchdown in that Jets game. Absolutely no way! I don't know how he sailed that ball over Fleeners' head in the end zone in that game. That was a head scratcher.

[FireJimCaldwell]

To me we have plenty of short passing in this scheme in the form of crossing routes, short passes to the rb, and quick wr screens.. The throw many times is sailed, or underthrown, or in the case of the screens it doesn't gain many yards. When we do get the right mix, and we go deep we are having the same issue. Sailed or underthrown balls. If Andrew could be more crisp with this issue we would be alot more effective, and we can do more of what Gavin is suggesting because I think it's right as well.

In my opinion it doesn't appear to be an Arians issue except for when we pass the ball too much, but it's almost hard to blame Arians when you look at how bad our running game has been. If we are showing in a game that we are making progress with the run, Arians has mixed it in pretty good. The Browns and Packers games are good examples.

I agree.

I still find Arians quite predictable when it comes to personnel groupings and I'm quite sure that past opponents and future opponents analyze and chart things in a lot more detail than I look at it. The score and various D&D are going to dictate the direction the team will go. 3&long you might see a rare run here and there but for the most part the ball is in the air as it should be. He's just so predictable on his groupings that the opponents likely have a firmer grasp of what is coming, and while I can call pass vs. run with a high rate of accuracy, they are likely saying that the pass is likely to be in the 8 or 15 yard range, etc, and defending the offense a little tighter than it would be if he were a bit more unpredictable.

[Superman]

It could be something simple like mechanics that need to be tweaked. Some like to point to drops being the reason for the low completion %, but there have been 3+ as many over/under/wide throws than drops.

Perfect example of this was the overthrow to Hilton up the right sideline, in the first quarter I think. The refs threw the flag for PI but it got picked up because the ball was uncatchable. Right call, all the way across the board. There was PI, but the ball was also uncatchable. The refs nailed it.

But on that throw, Luck adjusted his feet (he has really good footwork in the pocket most of the time), but didn't get upright, his hips were too low, and the ball sailed on him. Definitely a mechanical issue, and he wasn't under duress. There are others, also. Lots of double-clutching and jilted follow throughs on slant routes, resulting in the ball being behind the receiver instead of out in front so he can catch and run. Probably cost us 50+ yards after the catch on Sunday.

I don't think anything needs to be simplified for him, I just think the game plan itself needs to be adjusted. There is no doubt he has a grasp of the playbook, and run anything that Arians calls. A shift in the concentration on where the ball is headed would likely improve things. Having shorter routes and shorter targets, can lead to larger plays due to double moves. It's like running to set up the play-action... Double moves are basically play-action off of a short passing game. I think Gavin has said a few times throw short, to throw long. He's not wrong.

Not only does it set the defense up, it takes pressure off of your offensive line, and it slows their pass rush for you to have time to take a deep shot every now and then. Designed quarterback runs (and even good scrambles) can have the same effect. I'd like to see Luck take more liberty running the ball, and I'd like to see Arians call more quick hitting plays.

[Superman]

I agree.

I still find Arians quite predictable when it comes to personnel groupings and I'm quite sure that past opponents and future opponents analyze and chart things in a lot more detail than I look at it. The score and various D&D are going to dictate the direction the team will go. 3&long you might see a rare run here and there but for the most part the ball is in the air as it should be. He's just so predictable on his groupings that the opponents likely have a firmer grasp of what is coming, and while I can call pass vs. run with a high rate of accuracy, they are likely saying that the pass is likely to be in the 8 or 15 yard range, etc, and defending the offense a little tighter than it would be if he were a bit more unpredictable.

To the positive, the very first play from scrimmage took advantage of some of those trends. We've both complained about running out of heavy sets virtually every time, and to the heavy side. So he puts in a heavy set, calls a play action that way, and Reggie gets loose down field for 30 yards. That was very encouraging to see.

[FireJimCaldwell]

To the positive, the very first play from scrimmage took advantage of some of those trends. We've both complained about running out of heavy sets virtually every time, and to the heavy side. So he puts in a heavy set, calls a play action that way, and Reggie gets loose down field for 30 yards. That was very encouraging to see.

Except for the actual throw or do I have a different throw in mind. I haven't gone back to look at it. The throw that I am talking about had a replay coming from the defensive end zone and you can see that Wayne had to reach back behind him for the ball. With better placement it would have been an even bigger play. I thought it was the opening play.

But, that is one example of crossing up the tendency sheet, even though in my gut, I felt it was a pass even then though the tendencies would predict a run based on grouping/formation.

Touching on your post above this one, I agree that there should be some designed QB runs. He has the ability, and going 5 wide and running the Bradyesque sneak could easily get 5 yards in a non-short yardage type deal. Doing that in 4-5 wide a few times will likely end up with a different approach from a defensive perspective because they would have to respect the sneak/draw more and loosen up coverage.

[Superman]

Except for the actual throw or do I have a different throw in mind. I haven't gone back to look at it. The throw that I am talking about had a replay coming from the defensive end zone and you can see that Wayne had to reach back behind him for the ball. With better placement it would have been an even bigger play. I thought it was the opening play.

I think it was the same throw. Another example of Luck getting his ball placement wrong.

Some of us have been critical of his accuracy, and it's not like he's throwing balls into the dirt. If this were Curtis Painter, we'd be happy that he could find the open man, and just getting the ball to him, placement be darned, would be reason for excitement. But this is "the best quarterback prospect since John Elway." It's okay to expect a little more from him. And the play we're talking about was one of a handful (or more) of misplaced balls that were caught, but just throw in the wrong place.

There was another one that should have been a touchdown, I believe to Reggie again, but wasn't thrown out in front enough, and the defender was able to make a play on it. Those throws cost you points. He's got to be better there.

But, that is one example of crossing up the tendency sheet, even though in my gut, I felt it was a pass even then though the tendencies would predict a run based on grouping/formation.

Yeah, you can over do a trend, to the point that the trend-buster isn't really a surprise because you've been setting it up for so long. But at least we finally saw the trend-buster.

Touching on your post above this one, I agree that there should be some designed QB runs. He has the ability, and going 5 wide and running the Bradyesque sneak could easily get 5 yards in a non-short yardage type deal. Doing that in 4-5 wide a few times will likely end up with a different approach from a defensive perspective because they would have to respect the sneak/draw more and loosen up coverage.

Defensively, I'd probably give up the five yards to the quarterback, because it's another chance to put a hit on him, and it's not a big play. But when it's third down, you have an opportunity to catch the defense off guard either way. Luck's TD run against the Packers was a very good play call, even if I don't like empty backfield on third down.

[krunk]

I agree.

I still find Arians quite predictable when it comes to personnel groupings and I'm quite sure that past opponents and future opponents analyze and chart things in a lot more detail than I look at it. The score and various D&D are going to dictate the direction the team will go. 3&long you might see a rare run here and there but for the most part the ball is in the air as it should be. He's just so predictable on his groupings that the opponents likely have a firmer grasp of what is coming, and while I can call pass vs. run with a high rate of accuracy, they are likely saying that the pass is likely to be in the 8 or 15 yard range, etc, and defending the offense a little tighter than it would be if he were a bit more unpredictable.

We have seen different examples in the NFL that show that you can be predictable, yet successful if you can execute better than your opponent. I've seen many cases where we are predictable on 3rd downs, we had an open WR and the play was not executed properly. Being diverse is definitely good, but we've already discussed what is keeping us from being more diverse. We just haven't been able to establish the running game, so we've had to pass. When you are always forced to pass, it's easier for people to predict your personnel groupings. With that being said I think you can out execute an opponent even when they know what you are doing.

Our players said after the Jets game that nothing they(the jets) did was surprising. Arians said our defense did not do the run fits properly and bad tackling was the issue. On offense the Jets didn't pass for many yards on us, but the things that they did do well in the short passing game although predictable, we had no answer for. Predictability does not necessarily mean you can't execute and win battles. Our offense under Peyton Manning was predictable, but teams could not execute better than us. Coincidentally we could not run the ball worth a hoot even then.

When you are struggling in one area, the things that you do well have to be executed with more attention to detail. Emphasis shoud always be placed on being balanced and diverse, but when you can't be either of those I think execution is the higher focus more than being unpredictable.

[TKnight24]

This is the SAME OC that lead the Steelers to a SB. I don't think he's the Problem. But then again, I haven't seen all of our Games so I wouldn't really know. But I did see the NYJ Game & his play-caling was Good. Just the players didn't execute like when Luck overshot Fleener for that Wide open TD. We need an O-line for this Offense to Work. I agree we should do shorter passes & more screens. But I don't blame Arians.

And as for the Griffin Comaprison, he should be more Accurate. As much as he threw the ball at Baylor to Kendall & all the other WR's who ran Deep Routes & Dump Passes, he should be accurate. Luck was a more RB & TE Friendly Offense where he really didn't need to throw it Deep. But again, he had an O-line to Protect him. Even in College his Deep Ball was a little shaky. Sometimes Fleener had to stop or whoever he threw it to had to stop & wait instead of Luck leading them. But his Arm strength will get there as he hits the Weight Room more & all that. But like everyone has been saying, that little Option that Shannahan is letting fly in WAS, is only gonna last for this year. Don't be surprised if RG3 next year has a similar year as Mr. Cam "I need my Blankie" Newton is done in CAR

EDIT: And as for being "Predictable" We've been "Predictable" for the past DECADE! Teams knew we'd throw it, but could they stop it? Wasn't Marvin & Reggie always open? Didn't we Win a SB like that? Doesn't matter if they know what you're doing if they can't stop it. Teams know MJD is gonna touch the Ball 90% of the time, but doesn't he stil get 1,000 Yards Rushing season after season?

[Gavin]

Of course I am no expert by a long shot on QB mechanics but it seems to me he puts quite a bit of torgue I guess you could say when he * back to throw or winds up, He looks to throw with hi arm and wrist and not his shoulder, his delivery looks to be more of a bent arm approach which causes the ball to sail sometimes in my opinion, just my unexpert opinion

[FireJimCaldwell]

We have seen different examples in the NFL that show that you can be predictable, yet successful if you can execute better than your opponent. I've seen many cases where we are predictable on 3rd downs, we had an open WR and the play was not executed properly. Being diverse is definitely good, but we've already discussed what is keeping us from being more diverse. We just haven't been able to establish the running game, so we've had to pass. When you are always forced to pass, it's easier for people to predict your personnel groupings. With that being said I think you can out execute an opponent even when they know what you are doing.

Our players said after the Jets game that nothing they(the jets) did was surprising. Arians said our defense did not do the run fits properly and bad tackling was the issue. On offense the Jets didn't pass for many yards on us, but the things that they did do well in the short passing game although predictable, we had no answer for. Predictability does not necessarily mean you can't execute and win battles. Our offense under Peyton Manning was predictable, but teams could not execute better than us. Coincidentally we could not run the ball worth a hoot even then.

When you are struggling in one area, the things that you do well have to be executed with more attention to detail. Emphasis shoud always be placed on being balanced and diverse, but when you can't be either of those I think execution is the higher focus more than being unpredictable.

Execution reigns supreme for all except John Mckay. There are situations where teams know exactly what a team is doing and still can't stop it. We saw that from time to time over the past decade but it's not the case at the current moment.

I feel that any help an OC can provide to a rookie QB is a good thing. When some pass to run ratios or run to pass ratios are in the 70%+ range then there are some keys that are easy to pick up on and that forces the hand of the offense to be more efficient or execute better.

Even when someone knows you are passing the key then can be to hit a less targeted option. Or if you have a large tendency to run certain routes out of a certain set then mixing it up can improve more than it can hurt.

Obviously if the execution was highly proficient a lot of things wouldn't really matter. That is simply not the case at this point.

[NewColtsFan]

i can now see why the steelers got rid of him. he is a bit arrogant. perhaps that rubbed the HC the wrong way, don't know.

Now he's arrogant?!? Where do people come up with this stuff?

The word was Tomlin didn't want to get rid of Arians. The owner did. Guess who won?

[krunk]

Execution reigns supreme for all except John Mckay. There are situations where teams know exactly what a team is doing and still can't stop it. We saw that from time to time over the past decade but it's not the case at the current moment.

I feel that any help an OC can provide to a rookie QB is a good thing. When some pass to run ratios or run to pass ratios are in the 70%+ range then there are some keys that are easy to pick up on and that forces the hand of the offense to be more efficient or execute better.

Even when someone knows you are passing the key then can be to hit a less targeted option. Or if you have a large tendency to run certain routes out of a certain set then mixing it up can improve more than it can hurt.

Obviously if the execution was highly proficient a lot of things wouldn't really matter. That is simply not the case at this point.

What I'm saying is I haven't seen a large percentage of cases where the defense has taken away our read because they know what we are doing. We didn't execute the play correctly. So being more diverse or doing something different while being a good thing may not improve our third down percentage if it's an execution issue.

[FireJimCaldwell]

What I'm saying is I haven't seen a large percentage of cases where the defense has taken away our read because they know what we are doing. We didn't execute the play correctly. So being more diverse or doing something different while being a good thing may not improve our third down percentage if it's an execution issue.

A couple of weeks ago i made a post that tracked the % of defensed passes. Luck had the highest %. Now that could be based on various things, but I would say the predictability of the offense is a key factor as much as anything else.

The off target passes are more of an execution type thing and obviously that would also lead to more 3rd down conversions with more on target passes. I just feel that the less predictable a team can be the more it can help increase the ability to execute.

[Superman]

What I'm saying is I haven't seen a large percentage of cases where the defense has taken away our read because they know what we are doing. We didn't execute the play correctly. So being more diverse or doing something different while being a good thing may not improve our third down percentage if it's an execution issue.

All this is true, in many cases. But there's a reason you don't go out and tell the defense what play you're running.

[JoKeR]

I'm not sure if the play book is the problem as much as what plays were choosing. We need to use more plays that have shorter routes, more screens, and slants.