TOP 10 NFL DRAFT PROJECTION 2.0

[danlhart87]

I used the current order in this mock

 

Browns: Lamar Jackson QB 

49ers: Saquon Barkley RB 

Giants: Josh Rosen QB 

Broncos: Sam Darnold QB 

Colts: Quenton Nelson OG 

Bears: Calvan Ridley WR

Browns: Mike McGlinchy OT 

Jets: Bradley Chubb DE/OLB 

Dolphins: Connor Williams OT 

Buccaneers: Derwin James DB 

 

Colts have given up the most sacks in the NFL!  Drafting a sure fire OG prospect even at 5 deserves no further explanation! 

[danlhart87]

Mod can you please delete other 2 threads my phone always posts multiple times 

[throwing BBZ]

5 hours ago, danlhart87 said:

I used the current order in this mock

 

Browns: Lamar Jackson QB 

49ers: Saquon Barkley RB 

Giants: Josh Rosen QB 

Broncos: Sam Darnold QB 

Colts: Quenton Nelson OG 

Bears: Calvan Ridley WR

Browns: Mike McGlinchy OT 

Jets: Bradley Chubb DE/OLB 

Dolphins: Connor Williams OT 

Buccaneers: Derwin James DB 

 

Colts have given up the most sacks in the NFL!  Drafting a sure fire OG prospect even at 5 deserves no further explanation! 

 

 

 Right now i will believe that pass protection will not be more than OK from him.

[csmopar]

49 minutes ago, throwing BBZ said:

 

 

 Right now i will believe that pass protection will not be more than OK from him.

Care to explain?

[tvturner]

Lamar Jackson isn't going #1

[tweezy32]

1 hour ago, Boomstick1 said:

Lamar Jackson isn't going #1

Agreed

[LockeDown]

I hope it goes this way

[NewColtsFan]

Not only will Lamar Jackson NOT go first overall...    there's a better than 50-50 chance that he won't even go in the first round.

 

It's possible but not likely. 

 

This is the time of year to remind yourself that Walter Football and other draft websites are not very good.    They rotate a lot of new names in so their mocks don't keep looking the same.   So they keep refreshing and updating them.  But that doesn't make them right or good. It makes them CLICK BAIT!

 

It's OK to read them, I just wouldn't put too much stock in them.

 

 

[2006Coltsbestever]

10 minutes ago, NewColtsFan said:

Not only will Lamar Jackson NOT go first overall...    there's a better than 50-50 chance that he won't even go in the first round.

 

It's possible but not likely. 

 

This is the time of year to remind yourself that Walter Football and other draft websites are not very good.    They rotate a lot of new names in so their mocks don't keep looking the same.   So they keep refreshing and updating them.  But that doesn't make them right or good. It makes them CLICK BAIT!

 

It's OK to read them, I just wouldn't put too much stock in them.

 

 

I think Lamar may go late 1st Round/early 2nd. No way he goes ahead of Darnold or Rosen or even Mayfield. IMO Watson is better and he didn't go Top 10 last Draft, so that is what it is. I would be happy if we Drafted Quenton Nelson though, I am all for building the O.Line. He and Kelly would look nice together!

[throwing BBZ]

20 hours ago, csmopar said:

Care to explain?

 

Thank for the question. I'm not one to archive my research/reading.

That he now has issues with quickness and picking up stunts came up.

 At 6'5" and 330, i would be shocked if he wasn't somewhat slow afoot.
 As for mental quickness/FB IQ, more on that may come forth post combine.

 Next i look at NFL comparison.

 Another guy with the same height, weight. Mike Iupati.

 He was considered to be right at the very top as a run blocker. Gore knows.

 When he became a FA and went to AZ. there was no shortage of info on his strengths, and weaknesses.

 A fabulous run blocker, but he gave up a LOT of pressures... sacks, hits, hurries. As i recall it was 7 sacks

his FA to be season.  This while playing beside an Excellent Joe Stailey.
And AZ did run the ball better with his arrival.

 Just a wild ___ guestimmation that Nelson will get picked say 8-14.
  If we somehow pick in that range and were to take him, i would just have to say H___ yes, and look forward to rd two for the next great Colt. 
 I am currently praying to the FB Gods and Chuck to keep us on the righteous path to the 3rd or 4th pick.
Maximum flexibility to get the best player/most for our drafting buck.
 

 

 

[Defjamz26]

1 hour ago, NewColtsFan said:

Not only will Lamar Jackson NOT go first overall...    there's a better than 50-50 chance that he won't even go in the first round.

 

It's possible but not likely. 

 

This is the time of year to remind yourself that Walter Football and other draft websites are not very good.    They rotate a lot of new names in so their mocks don't keep looking the same.   So they keep refreshing and updating them.  But that doesn't make them right or good. It makes them CLICK BAIT!

 

It's OK to read them, I just wouldn't put too much stock in them.

 

 

Last week on Walter Football, Charlie had us taking a FB in the 2nd round...the mocks are used to get the names out there.

[RockThatBlue]

Lamar Jackson going #1? Lol, not sure if serious.

 

I'd like the Nelson pick for us though.

[krunk]

I like Nelson

[Track Guy]

Baker Mayfield is more likely to go #1 than Lamar Jackson imo.

 

I like Nelson at 5 to the Colts. Self admittedly, I'm huge on improving our running game every year... Normally I wouldn't advocate picking a guard in the top 10. But Nelson really seems like he's a special, elite level talent. I think he seems like the best overall prospect in this draft class, and that really it's his position (and lesser value than QB, OT, Edge rusher etc) that keeps him out of the conversation of being a top 3 pick. 

[NewColtsFan]

2 hours ago, Defjamz26 said:

Last week on Walter Football, Charlie had us taking a FB in the 2nd round...the mocks are used to get the names out there.

 

 

Sorry,  but I don't know what that means?      I've never heard anyone make this claim before?

 

And if you're going to put names out there,  isn't it more credible to put the names out much closer to the round where they are likely to be drafted?

 

I see Jackson as a Day 2 guy right now.    I just don't have a great feel yet for 2nd round or 3rd round?

 

[Defjamz26]

3 hours ago, NewColtsFan said:

 

 

Sorry,  but I don't know what that means?      I've never heard anyone make this claim before?

 

And if you're going to put names out there,  isn't it more credible to put the names out much closer to the round where they are likely to be drafted?

 

I see Jackson as a Day 2 guy right now.    I just don't have a great feel yet for 2nd round or 3rd round?

 

What it means is that a lot of mock drafts are to just get the names of the guys who will get drafted high out to the public, and not necessarily where they will go. No one is definitively saying that Quenton Nelson is going to the Bengals #8 overall. Mocking him there is to show in between what picks he might go, and that 1st rounder is where people are projecting him. At this point in the season, mock drafts are not about pin point accuracy. It’s about the broad scope.

 

And Jackson is a borderline 1st/2nd Round pick. His intangibles and physical traits are enticing if you think you can develop him as a passer. I heard a quote today about him that he’s Tyrod Taylor but he’s a better passer than Taylor. That type of passer is worth a 1st/2nd round pick.

[2006Coltsbestever]

Nicholas Chubb looks pretty great

[NewColtsFan]

1 hour ago, Defjamz26 said:

What it means is that a lot of mock drafts are to just get the names of the guys who will get drafted high out to the public, and not necessarily where they will go. No one is definitively saying that Quenton Nelson is going to the Bengals #8 overall. Mocking him there is to show in between what picks he might go, and that 1st rounder is where people are projecting him. At this point in the season, mock drafts are not about pin point accuracy. It’s about the broad scope.

 

And Jackson is a borderline 1st/2nd Round pick. His intangibles and physical traits are enticing if you think you can develop him as a passer. I heard a quote today about him that he’s Tyrod Taylor but he’s a better passer than Taylor. That type of passer is worth a 1st/2nd round pick.

 

Fine....   if you see Jackson as a borderline 1st-2nd guy, that's fine.

 

But why project him yo go first overall in the entire draft?!?    That doesn't seem very realistic to me.    How do you gain credibility with a projection like that?

 

I think forecasting Jackson going first overall does more harm than good for credibility.

 

As for mocks,  I never EVER care if a website matches the player with the right team.    Too much trading up and down to EVER really know.    I only care if a mock gets the player in the right round and somewhat close to where they get drafted.

 

Sites that do mocks all the time make constant changes because it attracts new eye balls to the site.   They can promote a new name at the top or big changes in the top 5 or 10.    In other words....

 

Click Bait!!

 

[NewColtsFan]

1 hour ago, 2006Coltsbestever said:

Nicholas Chubb looks pretty great

 

What was his problem?     13 carries, 77 yards...   5.9 yards per carry...    no fumbles...   caught a pass..

 

The Bulldogs have a 3-headed rotation at RB...   Chubb, Michel, and a freshman named Swift.      Chubb and Michel will get drafted...  

 

So why the sarcasm?     I'm not following?

 

[2006Coltsbestever]

6 minutes ago, NewColtsFan said:

 

What was his problem?     13 carries, 77 yards...   5.9 yards per carry...    no fumbles...   caught a pass..

 

The Bulldogs have a 3-headed rotation at RB...   Chubb, Michel, and a freshman named Swift.      Chubb and Michel will get drafted...  

 

So why the sarcasm?     I'm not following?

 

The sarcasm is if we take a RB this place will go nuts. I like Chubb.

[Defjamz26]

1 hour ago, NewColtsFan said:

 

Fine....   if you see Jackson as a borderline 1st-2nd guy, that's fine.

 

But why project him yo go first overall in the entire draft?!?    That doesn't seem very realistic to me.    How do you gain credibility with a projection like that?

 

I think forecasting Jackson going first overall does more harm than good for credibility.

 

As for mocks,  I never EVER care if a website matches the player with the right team.    Too much trading up and down to EVER really know.    I only care if a mock gets the player in the right round and somewhat close to where they get drafted.

 

Sites that do mocks all the time make constant changes because it attracts new eye balls to the site.   They can promote a new name at the top or big changes in the top 5 or 10.    In other words....

 

Click Bait!!

 

To your first point, think about the perspective. It’s the number 1 overall pick, it’s a QB, and it’s the Browns. The Browns are historically very unpredictable on draft day. They make a lot of unorthodox moves, for better or worse. Plus no QB in this class has mobility or dual threat ability like Jackson. People have desperately been trying to bridge the gap with mobile QBs. They’re looking for a the guy that isn’t a Manziel, RGIII, or Vick but is better than Newton or Taylor. Most teams are afraid to take that gamble though. The Browns wouldn’t. The thought behind the pick is why go conventional? Maybe a dual threat playmaker who can beat you multiple ways is the way to go. It’s the same reason Mayfield is mocked in the 1st despite basically being Johnny Football 2.0 but not as much of a train wreck.

 

2nd, you almost make it seem like most of these mock draft sites are just out for clicks. They constantly make changes for the same reason we on this board constantly talk draft talk and do weekly mocks: The fun and passion. While they still have to make a living, remember that they take time out of their day to do this. Draft opinions are fickle too. You can be in love with a prospect and then hate him after 2 games. You can re-watch tape and come to a different conclusion, hear something from a scout, etc...There’s a reason why they talk about a players “stock”. Like the market, the players worth is Ever changing every day. One minute it’s way up, then down, then slightly up, then way down, and then back up again. I don’t think it’s all click bait. ESPN is click bait since you have to pay to see a full Kiper draft.

[2006Coltsbestever]

2 hours ago, NewColtsFan said:

 

What was his problem?     13 carries, 77 yards...   5.9 yards per carry...    no fumbles...   caught a pass..

 

The Bulldogs have a 3-headed rotation at RB...   Chubb, Michel, and a freshman named Swift.      Chubb and Michel will get drafted...  

 

So why the sarcasm?     I'm not following?

 

Hell, last year I wanted Kareem Hunt and Posted my guts out over it before the Draft and nobody even acknowledge it. I also said Watson was the real deal and the Draft guru's in here had their own opinions. Chubb and Barkley both will make an instant impact, chalk it up!

[Luck 4 president]

13 minutes ago, 2006Coltsbestever said:

Hell, last year I wanted Kareem Hunt and Posted my guts out over it before the Draft and nobody even acknowledge it. I also said Watson was the real deal and the Draft guru's in here had their own opinions. Chubb and Barkley both will make an instant impact, chalk it up!

Hunt averaged like 1.5 yards per carry last game. I know it’s not all his fault but he hasn’t looked like a good back for about 5 or 6 weeks

[2006Coltsbestever]

27 minutes ago, Luck 4 president said:

Hunt averaged like 1.5 yards per carry last game. I know it’s not all his fault but he hasn’t looked like a good back for about 5 or 6 weeks

Hunt has 890 Yards = 4.8 a carry as a Rookie + 4 TD's, that is awesome. Yeah he had a bad game last game but he's a rookie. Guy will get over 1000 easily. Not sure what your point is? I was clearly right saying this guy would be Good.

[NewColtsFan]

2 hours ago, 2006Coltsbestever said:

Hell, last year I wanted Kareem Hunt and Posted my guts out over it before the Draft and nobody even acknowledge it. I also said Watson was the real deal and the Draft guru's in here had their own opinions. Chubb and Barkley both will make an instant impact, chalk it up!

 

This is not a website where being smart and accurate are going to get a lot of attention and congratulations.

 

Superman, of course,  is the exception to the rule.

 

But I was with you last year.   I had Watson as my top QB,  13th overall,  and 10 spots ahead of Trubisky.    I also had Hunt on a list of 9 RB's I thought the Colts would take,   but said I wasn't sure he'd get to us in the 4th round, that I thought he might go in the 3rd.      And that's where he went.     To be clear,  he's much better than I thought he'd be as a rookie....     But Track Guy pegged Kumara as a likely top back and look how he's doing.    TG hasn't gotten much credit for his pick.      It's just sort of the nature of things around here.

 

 

[NewColtsFan]

2 hours ago, Defjamz26 said:

To your first point, think about the perspective. It’s the number 1 overall pick, it’s a QB, and it’s the Browns. The Browns are historically very unpredictable on draft day. They make a lot of unorthodox moves, for better or worse. Plus no QB in this class has mobility or dual threat ability like Jackson. People have desperately been trying to bridge the gap with mobile QBs. They’re looking for a the guy that isn’t a Manziel, RGIII, or Vick but is better than Newton or Taylor. Most teams are afraid to take that gamble though. The Browns wouldn’t. The thought behind the pick is why go conventional? Maybe a dual threat playmaker who can beat you multiple ways is the way to go. It’s the same reason Mayfield is mocked in the 1st despite basically being Johnny Football 2.0 but not as much of a train wreck.

 

2nd, you almost make it seem like most of these mock draft sites are just out for clicks. They constantly make changes for the same reason we on this board constantly talk draft talk and do weekly mocks: The fun and passion. While they still have to make a living, remember that they take time out of their day to do this. Draft opinions are fickle too. You can be in love with a prospect and then hate him after 2 games. You can re-watch tape and come to a different conclusion, hear something from a scout, etc...There’s a reason why they talk about a players “stock”. Like the market, the players worth is Ever changing every day. One minute it’s way up, then down, then slightly up, then way down, and then back up again. I don’t think it’s all click bait. ESPN is click bait since you have to pay to see a full Kiper draft.

 

I think you're badly over-thinking this....

 

These draft sites ARE out for clicks.     It's how they make their money.      They change because if they didn't,  people would stop clicking as much.    "Oh look,  the same guys are still ranked roughly the same...     that's three weeks in a row now."       

 

Also,   I don't view Kiper or McShay as click bait.     You have to pay for that.      I associate click bait with non-paying sites,  and how do they attract you to click on them?      With sensational headlines designed to catch your eye and wonder what else the story might hold?     Hey,  let's click on this and see what they say?!?

 

By the way,   neither Kiper or McShay are doing mock drafts.    They're just doing the ranking of the top players in the first round.     And also the top players by position.      But no mocks.       I think their bosses ask them to do one mock early on near the start of the season,  but after that,   none until after the bowl games and the NFL season ends. 

 

I think mocks at this time of year are mostly (but not entirely)  silly....

 

And I think the sites which allow you to draft for your favorite teams are more than silly.     Those guys don't know how to rank players.      So,  someone did one of those sites and did a large number of trade backs and wound up taking Iman Marshall,  the DB from USC in the 7th round.      Now come on.      Here's a guy who is likely a Day 2 player.    And the fan here takes him in the 7th round.    That's just not happening.     And there are tons of these examples every year here.      Those websites are fun,  but they're not realistic.    The guys who run those sites do NOT know player evaluations.     They're guessing as much as anyone here.    Things don't get good on those sites until April when much more information is known.....

 

[ty4atd]

Mock drafts then at anytime of year are silly Kiper's last mock draft for 2017 he was brutal. Everyone and their mothers knew Garret would go #1 but nah he got a whopping 2 picks right. McShay was hardly better he also whiffed on the freebie 1st pick and hit on all of 4 picks. Mcshay also did his first mock draft last season right around this time and it was no better than Walterfootball's or anyone else's. I will give you that Walterfootball's own evaluation of players isn't great but it's not terrible at getting info of what teams think of players.  

[Defjamz26]

7 hours ago, NewColtsFan said:

 

I think you're badly over-thinking this....

 

These draft sites ARE out for clicks.     It's how they make their money.      They change because if they didn't,  people would stop clicking as much.    "Oh look,  the same guys are still ranked roughly the same...     that's three weeks in a row now."       

 

Also,   I don't view Kiper or McShay as click bait.     You have to pay for that.      I associate click bait with non-paying sites,  and how do they attract you to click on them?      With sensational headlines designed to catch your eye and wonder what else the story might hold?     Hey,  let's click on this and see what they say?!?

 

By the way,   neither Kiper or McShay are doing mock drafts.    They're just doing the ranking of the top players in the first round.     And also the top players by position.      But no mocks.       I think their bosses ask them to do one mock early on near the start of the season,  but after that,   none until after the bowl games and the NFL season ends. 

 

I think mocks at this time of year are mostly (but not entirely)  silly....

 

And I think the sites which allow you to draft for your favorite teams are more than silly.     Those guys don't know how to rank players.      So,  someone did one of those sites and did a large number of trade backs and wound up taking Iman Marshall,  the DB from USC in the 7th round.      Now come on.      Here's a guy who is likely a Day 2 player.    And the fan here takes him in the 7th round.    That's just not happening.     And there are tons of these examples every year here.      Those websites are fun,  but they're not realistic.    The guys who run those sites do NOT know player evaluations.     They're guessing as much as anyone here.    Things don't get good on those sites until April when much more information is known.....

 

But mock drafting is only super popular to hardcore football nerds who go on the web. A casual fan isn’t going to be looking at Drafftek. I don’t deny that they need the clicks but they wouldn’t do it if they didn’t have some type of passion for it. There are other sports topics people could talk about to get clicks.

 

And yeah mock drafts and the simulator games are silly, but it’s the nature of the beast. The expectation is people use the combined resources to understand the draft process, and have somewhat of an idea of what they’re team might do on draft day,

[TheRustonRifle#7]

A Guard as a top 5 pick??????  Sorry but that would be a mistake.

[Defjamz26]

6 hours ago, TheRustonRifle#7 said:

A Guard as a top 5 pick??????  Sorry but that would be a mistake.

Considering he’s a legitimate blue chip player and most scouts are saying he’s the best guard they’ve ever graded, the only mistake would be taking a player not graded as high as him instead.

[TheRustonRifle#7]

7 minutes ago, Defjamz26 said:

Considering he’s a legitimate blue chip player and most scouts are saying he’s the best guard they’ve ever graded, the only mistake would be taking a player not graded as high as him instead.

A top 5 pick should be used on an impact position like QB, LT, Edge Rusher, Shut Down Corner...never for a Guard.  I also didn't write that taking a lesser player would be desirable.  At this point we don't know what type of offense or defense Indy will even be running next year.  Plus Pro days and The Combine are a month plus away and a lot will change on where players fall in the pecking order.

[Colts_Fan12]

Just now, TheRustonRifle#7 said:

A top 5 pick should be used on an impact position like QB, LT, Edge Rusher, Shut Down Corner...never for a Guard.  I also didn't write that taking a lesser player would be desirable.  At this point we don't know what type of offense or defense Indy will even be running next year.  Plus Pro days and The Combine are a month plus away and a lot will change on where players fall in the pecking order.

Unless the draft don't have any of those then you take the best player no matter what position 

[TheRustonRifle#7]

1 minute ago, Colts_Fan12 said:

Unless the draft don't have any of those then you take the best player no matter what position 

If it is a Guard, then trade down....quality Guards can be found in the mid rounds.

[Colts_Fan12]

3 minutes ago, TheRustonRifle#7 said:

If it is a Guard, then trade down....quality Guards can be found in the mid rounds.

Good idea cause that's worked for the last 5 years 

 

Plus as good as he is we would just allow another team to take him that's dumb 

[Defjamz26]

33 minutes ago, TheRustonRifle#7 said:

A top 5 pick should be used on an impact position like QB, LT, Edge Rusher, Shut Down Corner...never for a Guard.  I also didn't write that taking a lesser player would be desirable.  At this point we don't know what type of offense or defense Indy will even be running next year.  Plus Pro days and The Combine are a month plus away and a lot will change on where players fall in the pecking order.

That’s not how NFL ball clubs operate. BPA regardless of position. When two players are ranked closely, they’ll go with the need. And not knowing what will happen in Indy next year is exactly why you draft guys like Nelson. Blue chip and can play in any system and be good immediately. That’s why “positional value” is a load of crap. That’s how you end up drafting Christian Ponder and Dion Jordan.

[TheRustonRifle#7]

8 minutes ago, Defjamz26 said:

That’s not how NFL ball clubs operate. BPA regardless of position. When two players are ranked closely, they’ll go with the need. And not knowing what will happen in Indy next year is exactly why you draft guys like Nelson. Blue chip and can play in any system and be good immediately. That’s why “positional value” is a load of crap. That’s how you end up drafting Christian Ponder and Dion Jordan.

I completely disagree as you need to know what type of Defense and Offense your team is going to run to effectively determine your draft pick.  Positional value isn't crap, an elite QB or any of the other positions I mentioned hold much more value than a Guard.  Now if that Guard has the ability to develop into a LT great..but by now if they are a Guard they are most likely destined to be a Guard.  I just hope Indy has the ability to determine and choose the perfect player for its needs...as this season has been draining.

[TheRustonRifle#7]

I just thought I would add this for perspective.  Btw, nice work Dan you always bring excellent posts to the forum, whether I agree with the picks or not

 

http://www.nfl.com/draft/history/fulldraft?position=OL&type=position

 

[Dark Superman]

You guys feel good about taking Nelson before Chubb?

[Dark Superman]

Don't we currently hold the #4 pick over Denver?

[rock8591]

1 hour ago, TheRustonRifle#7 said:

I completely disagree as you need to know what type of Defense and Offense your team is going to run to effectively determine your draft pick.  Positional value isn't crap, an elite QB or any of the other positions I mentioned hold much more value than a Guard.  Now if that Guard has the ability to develop into a LT great..but by now if they are a Guard they are most likely destined to be a Guard.  I just hope Indy has the ability to determine and choose the perfect player for its needs...as this season has been draining.

 

QB > K, P, LS

 

What is to say that a good guard is worth less than a good tackle or center?