Nah, by year 2 Peyton was a beast. Year 1 was rough but by year 2, it was clear he was a franchise QB. I think it was 2003 (5 years on) before he (#18) truly matured and started to 'take what the defense gave him' and really hit that HoF level but by year 2, it was clear the pick was a good one. That's what we all want to see with Anthony
Yup, by year 3, you oughta know in most cases.
With QB, by year 2, you're showing the skeleton of what you'll be. Unfortunately, this isn't year 2 for AR though it is.
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