Colts select Adonai Mitchell WR Texas (Merged)

[ADnum1]

On 5/7/2024 at 12:36 PM, stitches said:

These are the Reception Perception charting numbers for Mitchell:

 

 

They also have him charted in the 83-85th percentile against man and against press coverage. 

 

edit: I just realized you asked for Pierce. Sorry... don't have those numbers. 

 

edit 2: found this on Pierce as a prospect: 

 

 

 

 

The chart doesn't lie. There's alot of Red in the Pierce success by route graph.

 

And just because Pierce gets open that doesn't mean he catches the ball.

 

Anyone remember the big drop he had in the Falcons game ? That was a critical drop and swung the game in favor of the Falcons. Minshew put it right on him

[RollerColt]

 

[shasta519]

On 5/11/2024 at 11:54 AM, ADnum1 said:

The chart doesn't lie. There's alot of Red in the Pierce success by route graph.

 

And just because Pierce gets open that doesn't mean he catches the ball.

 

Anyone remember the big drop he had in the Falcons game ? That was a critical drop and swung the game in favor of the Falcons. Minshew put it right on him

 

Impossible. Minshew never threw to Pierce.

 

Pretty sure that was the game without MPJ and Pierce was largely featured.

 

What an awful game though. If you want to see a floor for this entire team, this is it.

[NewColtsFan]

So….   As of now, Pierce is WR4.   He’s going to have to up his game to get more playing time and opportunities.  
 

1.   Pittman

2.   Downs

3.   Mitchell

4.   Pierce

5.   Gould

6.   Dulin

 

It is — by far — the best WR room the Colts have had in Ballard’s time.   AR will have plenty of different types of receivers to throw to.  Steichen can play mad scientist every week. 

[cdgacoltsfan]

14 minutes ago, NewColtsFan said:

So….   As of now, Pierce is WR4.   He’s going to have to up his game to get more playing time and opportunities.  
 

1.   Pittman

2.   Downs

3.   Mitchell

4.   Pierce

5.   Gould

6.   Dulin

 

It is — by far — the best WR room the Colts have had in Ballard’s time.   AR will have plenty of different types of receivers to throw to.  Steichen can play mad scientist every week. 

Don't 4 get the TE group and JT. Don't sleep on Hull either.

[Jason_]

1 minute ago, cdgacoltsfan said:

Don't 4 get the TE group and JT. Don't sleep on Hull either.

 

I slept on Hull once.  Now he has a restraining order against me.  A bit of an overreaction imo but it is what it is.

[cdgacoltsfan]

3 hours ago, Jason_ said:

 

I slept on Hull once.  Now he has a restraining order against me.  A bit of an overreaction imo but it is what it is.

You probably deserved it

[Jason_]

13 minutes ago, cdgacoltsfan said:

You probably deserved it

 

It's entirely possible

[throwing BBZ]

On 5/11/2024 at 11:54 AM, ADnum1 said:

The chart doesn't lie. There's alot of Red in the Pierce success by route graph.

 

And just because Pierce gets open that doesn't mean he catches the ball.

 

Anyone remember the big drop he had in the Falcons game ? That was a critical drop and swung the game in favor of the Falcons. Minshew put it right on him

 

 Gardner stank at putting the ball on Pierce.

Enjoy your hate.

 Pierce had a 1.5% drop rate last season.

This is actually a correct use of ELITE. Best of the Best.

[cbear]

Boy, sure seems like a lot of fans are still whipping up on AP. Very strange since he plays his butt off, does the dirty work, and never complains even if he was hardly targeted due to Minshew's limitations. He should be appreciated instead. 

[cdgacoltsfan]

4 minutes ago, cbear said:

Boy, sure seems like a lot of fans are still whipping up on AP. Very strange since he plays his butt off, does the dirty work, and never complains even if he was hardly targeted due to Minshew's limitations. He should be appreciated instead. 

It used to be Fries that they complained about but Fries played well so they had to move onto the next victim.

[Superman]

7 minutes ago, cdgacoltsfan said:

It used to be Fries that they complained about but Fries played well so they had to move onto the next victim.

 

I complained about Fries because he didn't play very well, then he had a nice season last year, for which I have given him credit. Coaching makes a big difference, especially with the OL.

 

Pierce definitely deserves a break, but he also has to play better.

[stitches]

11 hours ago, cdgacoltsfan said:

It used to be Fries that they complained about but Fries played well so they had to move onto the next victim.

 

11 hours ago, Superman said:

 

I complained about Fries because he didn't play very well, then he had a nice season last year, for which I have given him credit. Coaching makes a big difference, especially with the OL.

 

Pierce definitely deserves a break, but he also has to play better.

 

I don't see a problem with people voicing their displeasure with players who are underperforming. Fries was our worst lineman and people complained... normal. Fries starts playing better, people stop complaining. Normal.

 

Pierce was our worst WR and people complained. Normal. If/when he starts performing well, people will stop complaining... 

 

Much bigger problem for me is complaining about the play of guys who actually play well - for example - for years AC was that guy despite being the only good thing about our OL. Right now I see similar sentiments about Braden Smith, despite him being the most consistent and solid player on that OL ever since he was drafted. 

[shasta519]

On 5/14/2024 at 12:37 PM, NewColtsFan said:

So….   As of now, Pierce is WR4.   He’s going to have to up his game to get more playing time and opportunities.  
 

1.   Pittman

2.   Downs

3.   Mitchell

4.   Pierce

5.   Gould

6.   Dulin

 

It is — by far — the best WR room the Colts have had in Ballard’s time.   AR will have plenty of different types of receivers to throw to.  Steichen can play mad scientist every week. 

 

I think AD supplants him by season's end, but I don't see it happening right away. He's still a rookie after all.

[NewColtsFan]

15 minutes ago, shasta519 said:

 

I think AD supplants him by season's end, but I don't see it happening right away. He's still a rookie after all.

You may be right.   But on YouTube, there’s a video I haven’t seen much of where Wayne is asked about Downs and responds that Downs looks awesome so far this off-season.   I’m looking forward to seeing that sometime this week.  
 

But Mitchell has so much talent that your position might still hold up.  

[shasta519]

18 hours ago, cbear said:

Boy, sure seems like a lot of fans are still whipping up on AP. Very strange since he plays his butt off, does the dirty work, and never complains even if he was hardly targeted due to Minshew's limitations. He should be appreciated instead. 

 

And quite a bit more fans are "white-knighting" for AP.

 

AP's own limitations as a WR is what has impacted him most. Similar usage across several QBs (including AR in a short sample) and two different coaching staffs. He's just not been effective enough as a short or intermediate route runner to earn more targets. You can put some of the blame on bad QB play, but there is nothing wrong with being objective about a player. 

 

And considering Steichen is the one who calls the plays, AP's usage is also attributed to him (which conveniently doesn't get mentioned). So I will trust his judgement on this one.

 

 

[shasta519]

7 hours ago, stitches said:

 

 

I don't see a problem with people voicing their displeasure with players who are underperforming. Fries was our worst lineman and people complained... normal. Fries starts playing better, people stop complaining. Normal.

 

Pierce was our worst WR and people complained. Normal. If/when he starts performing well, people will stop complaining... 

 

Much bigger problem for me is complaining about the play of guys who actually play well - for example - for years AC was that guy despite being the only good thing about our OL. Right now I see similar sentiments about Braden Smith, despite him being the most consistent and solid player on that OL ever since he was drafted. 

 

Exactly. People are complaining about people being critical of AP, yet they criticize Minshew all the time. 

 

I think the complaints about Smith might be more related to his health. He's actually been the best OL player the past two years IMO.

[cbear]

4 minutes ago, shasta519 said:

 

And quite a bit more fans are "white-knighting" for AP.

 

AP's own limitations as a WR is what has impacted him most. Similar usage across several QBs (including AR in a short sample) and two different coaching staffs. He's just not been effective enough as a short or intermediate route runner to earn more targets. You can put some of the blame on bad QB play, but there is nothing wrong with being objective about a player. 

 

And considering Steichen is the one who calls the plays, AP's usage is also attributed to him (which conveniently doesn't get mentioned). So I will trust his judgement on this one.

 

 

Being objective is a subjective thing as we all know and many don't seem to give him credit for anything, which I don't like because he seems like a hard worker and high character guy and as I said, does the dirty work with his blocking and clearing out the middle for Pittman and Downs without complaining. 

 

This year will be telling. But if he does do better, honestly I don't think it will be because he stepped up his game so much as he has a QB that utilizes his game better. 

[Superman]

7 hours ago, stitches said:

 

 

I don't see a problem with people voicing their displeasure with players who are underperforming. Fries was our worst lineman and people complained... normal. Fries starts playing better, people stop complaining. Normal.

 

Pierce was our worst WR and people complained. Normal. If/when he starts performing well, people will stop complaining... 

 

Much bigger problem for me is complaining about the play of guys who actually play well - for example - for years AC was that guy despite being the only good thing about our OL. Right now I see similar sentiments about Braden Smith, despite him being the most consistent and solid player on that OL ever since he was drafted. 

 

Agreed. 

 

On Pierce, I think there's more to him, and it can be shown with the right kind of QB. He still needs to play better.

 

Smith missed six games in 2021, and seven games in 2023. That's my only concern with him. He's still young, and hopefully the surgery corrected whatever he's been dealing with.

[shasta519]

52 minutes ago, cbear said:

Being objective is a subjective thing as we all know and many don't seem to give him credit for anything, which I don't like because he seems like a hard worker and high character guy and as I said, does the dirty work with his blocking and clearing out the middle for Pittman and Downs without complaining. 

 

This year will be telling. But if he does do better, honestly I don't think it will be because he stepped up his game so much as he has a QB that utilizes his game better. 

It can be subjective, but metrics typically help paint a more objective picture.
 

Nothing wrong with liking or appreciating a player though. We all do it. And nothing wrong with being hopeful. 

 

I just didn’t agree with fair criticism being equated to unfair whipping. Same goes for unfair whipping being passed off as fair criticism. 

[ADnum1]

2 hours ago, NewColtsFan said:

You may be right.   But on YouTube, there’s a video I haven’t seen much of where Wayne is asked about Downs and responds that Downs looks awesome so far this off-season.   I’m looking forward to seeing that sometime this week.  
 

But Mitchell has so much talent that your position might still hold up.  

Are we talking about AD passing Downs or Pierce ?

[Restinpeacesweetchloe]

Mitchell is going to have to earn that 3rd spot. He isn’t going to be handed it. If he is going to have to show he is willing to block to get snaps over Pierce. Let’s not put too many expectations on him. Especially if Alec comes out hot with Richardson. We are in a good spot where we aren’t going to have to force Mitchell in there.

[NewColtsFan]

6 minutes ago, ADnum1 said:

Are we talking about AD passing Downs or Pierce ?

Im saying AD has already passed Pierce to be WR3 on the Colts.   Shasta was saying he thinks in the second half of the season, he thinks Mitchell will pass Downs to be WR2 on the Colts.   
 

I was saying that’s certainly possible.  But that Reggie Wayne said this week that Downs has looked GREAT this off-season so who knows?  Feels very win-win to me. 
 

Hope that clarifies.  

[NFLfan]

20 minutes ago, ADnum1 said:

Are we talking about AD passing Downs or Pierce ?

 

What are your thoughts on that?

 

(I see you replaced Rivers with Mitchell. Don't change your avatar. 😉)

[NFLfan]

On 5/11/2024 at 11:54 AM, ADnum1 said:

Anyone remember the big drop he had in the Falcons game ? That was a critical drop and swung the game in favor of the Falcons. Minshew put it right on him

 

I remember the drop of a Richardson pass that seemed to land right in Pierce's hands and should have been a touchdown. Pierce dropped it. 

 

But if Pierce can hold on to the catches, he can be a scoring machine with AR at QB. Mitchell may be too.

[RollerColt]

13 minutes ago, NFLfan said:

 

I remember the drop of a Richardson pass that seemed to land right in Pierce's hands and should have been a touchdown. Pierce dropped it. 

 

But if Pierce can hold on to the catches, he can be a scoring machine with AR at QB. Mitchell may be too.

Preseason against the Bills. There was another time in the regular season too if I recall… 

[cdgacoltsfan]

1 minute ago, RollerColt said:

Preseason against the Bills. There was another time in the regular season too if I recall… 

Opening game against Texans. Sure TD from Matt Ryan.

[ADnum1]

27 minutes ago, RollerColt said:

Preseason against the Bills. There was another time in the regular season too if I recall… 

Falcons game, critical play.  Falcons had just scored and Colts were trying to match the score.

 

Minshew put it right on him at mid field for the first down.

[ADnum1]

1 hour ago, Restinpeacesweetchloe said:

Mitchell is going to have to earn that 3rd spot. He isn’t going to be handed it. If he is going to have to show he is willing to block to get snaps over Pierce. Let’s not put too many expectations on him. Especially if Alec comes out hot with Richardson. We are in a good spot where we aren’t going to have to force Mitchell in there.

Please call him AD.

 

The entire country calls him AD.

 

Here's the ESPN announcers calling him AD

 

AD Mitchell HUGE game winning? TD against OSU!!! final seconds!

 

 

 

[Superman]

35 minutes ago, ADnum1 said:

Falcons game, critical play.  Falcons had just scored and Colts were trying to match the score.

 

Minshew put it right on him at mid field for the first down.

 

Yeah, that was one of his two drops last season.

 

He also had two contested catches and forced a pass interference in the end zone, in that same game.

[smittywerb]

Found what I was looking for!  I wanted to know if AP was getting open and not being seen or not getting open fast enough. Eye test told me he wasn’t getting open fast enough and/or open at all but a lot of people on the board would say he’s indeed getting open and missed.  So I wanted to be subjective and see if there was maybe a stat that showed at what rate a receiver is getting open.  And I found it:

Receiver Tracking Metrics:  https://espnanalytics.com/rtm 

ESPN explaining each score: https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/34649390/espn-receiver-tracking-metrics-how-new-nfl-stats-work-open-catch-yac-scores

Based on how the data reads and what I’ve seen in field, it’s consistent with the production we got.  Pierce isn’t getting open.  Maybe it’s the predictable routes he’s running, maybe he has limitations, but he’s not getting open.

[stitches]

9 hours ago, ADnum1 said:

Are we talking about AD passing Downs or Pierce ?

Should change nickname to ADnum10

[smittywerb]

9 hours ago, smittywerb said:

Found what I was looking for!  I wanted to know if AP was getting open and not being seen or not getting open fast enough. Eye test told me he wasn’t getting open fast enough and/or open at all but a lot of people on the board would say he’s indeed getting open and missed.  So I wanted to be subjective and see if there was maybe a stat that showed at what rate a receiver is getting open.  And I found it:

Receiver Tracking Metrics:  https://espnanalytics.com/rtm 

ESPN explaining each score: https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/34649390/espn-receiver-tracking-metrics-how-new-nfl-stats-work-open-catch-yac-scores

Based on how the data reads and what I’ve seen in field, it’s consistent with the production we got.  Pierce isn’t getting open.  Maybe it’s the predictable routes he’s running, maybe he has limitations, but he’s not getting open.

 

Building upon this, the wording was a little confusing in the explanation of the open score so I did some more digging and found a video by espn explaining it.  And yes, it takes into account if the receiver thrown to or not.  They used diontae johnson as an example, he had an open score of 99 but 865 yards in 2022.  Meaning he was indeed getting open and missed.

 

There are some head scratching things about this model.  Like how JJ and Tyreek are ranked kind of low in getting open.  But it also kind of makes sense because these are players who’d you consider be double teamed on a consistent basis but due to their talent and who may be throwing them ball, they’re able to produce.  Definitely some more head scratchers in this model so I won’t say this should be the end all be all, but it’s close enough to make sense.

 

https://youtu.be/veMsKHA72sU?si=9UHegJwk4JqEeHba

[Solid84]

10 hours ago, stitches said:

Should change nickname to ADnum10

TDs AD Nauseam!

[ArmchairQB]

On 5/10/2024 at 4:28 AM, James said:

What abort Bartolini and Golcalves? Are they also holding out? 
 

What a nonsensical post considering the rookie wage scale.

I referenced the rookie wage scale were you bored?  Only one draft pick had questionable character issues and was making a stink about not going in the first.   

[dw49]

37 minutes ago, ArmchairQB said:

I referenced the rookie wage scale were you bored?  Only one draft pick had questionable character issues and was making a stink about not going in the first.   

 

Give it up . That was a horrible post and if I made it I would own up to it. Please open the attachment and let me know if the other unsigned second round picks also have "character " issues ? As you can see only 8 have signed. BTW.. the fact that only 1 player from pick 46 through 62 has signed a deal is PROBABLY ( we don't know for sure ) why AD has not signed a deal yet. When you see a few signing in that area , there will be a bunch that follow.  

https://www.footballdb.com/transactions/draft-signings.html

[teganslaw]

PFF named Mitchell as "best player fit" among 2024 rookie wideouts. Mitchell could be a draft steal or PFF could be wrong in their analysis. He has a lot of potential and much to live up to. I hope everything works out and Mitchell is "that guy." 

[Superman]

On 5/9/2024 at 6:23 PM, ArmchairQB said:

Noticed AD was not among the first round of draftee signings.  Is it possible he is going to hold out for 1st round money?  I had thought under the CBA the rookie contracts were somewhat locked in at certain numbers.

 

Rookie contracts are locked in for total value and years. Mitchell won't be holding out for first round money, it's not permissible based on the CBA. If players want to change that, holding out won't do anything; the union would have to strike, and that's not happening. Other contract factors are negotiable, and the main sticking points tend to be total guaranteed money, and offset language. 

 

At this point, it's way too early to be concerned about a rookie contract holdout. Rookie holdouts almost never happen after 2011, and when they do, it's always a player who was drafted near the top of the first round. The two that come to mind are Joey Bosa (third overall pick), and Devon Witherspoon (fifth overall pick). Anthony Castonzo was a few days late to camp in 2011, but that was the first year of the rookie wage scale so the precedents regarding guarantees and so forth weren't set, and a lot of NFL business was happening in a short period of time after the lockout, so I don't even think it counts.

 

It's possible that with the transfer portal and NIL money being a big factor in the career paths of college athletes, they are now used to having more leverage than drafted players had even three or four years ago. So maybe we'll see more holdouts for players outside of the first round, but until that really starts happening, I'm not worried about it. In Mitchell's case, all that really matters is that he's signed in time for training camp.