Colts have the 15th pick in the draft. (MERGE)

[Superman]

1 hour ago, csmopar said:

Separating his name, he’s the dynamic WR we need. But I admit, it is hard to gauge whether the hype is correct given his name

 

He's a great prospect, definitely worthy of being considered the best WR in this year's draft. But I do wonder if he wasn't already considered the consensus #1 for the past year and a half, would there be more discussion about whether Nabers is the best guy this year? They have different strengths, and "you can't teach size," but Nabers is just as impressive a prospect, IMO.

 

So while I don't think MHJ is just hype, I do wonder if the long time name recognition has affected the narrative.

 

To answer your question, I don't think the Colts should be trading up, especially not for a WR. There's a lot of value at WR past the first tier of guys this year, plus other positions that will probably get pushed down because of how top heavy the draft will be at WR and QB, plus Bowers who probably goes top ten. If a team wants an edge rusher or an OT, this is a great year to be picking in the 10-20 range, IMO. There are even good options at CB and DT.

[Solid84]

48 minutes ago, Superman said:

To answer your question, I don't think the Colts should be trading up, especially not for a WR. There's a lot of value at WR past the first tier of guys this year, plus other positions that will probably get pushed down because of how top heavy the draft will be at WR and QB, plus Bowers who probably goes top ten. If a team wants an edge rusher or an OT, this is a great year to be picking in the 10-20 range, IMO. There are even good options at CB and DT.

I think we're in a pretty good position this year.

 

3-4 QBs taken ahead of us, 2-4 Tackles, 2-3 WRs, Bowers, maybe a CB, maybe a DE, maybe a DT.

 

We're in great position for one of the top DEs, DTs, CBs and one of the top 2nd tier WRs.

[BProland85]

23 minutes ago, Solid84 said:

I think we're in a pretty good position this year.

 

3-4 QBs taken ahead of us, 2-4 Tackles, 2-3 WRs, Bowers, maybe a CB, maybe a DE, maybe a DT.

 

We're in great position for one of the top DEs, DTs, CBs and one of the top 2nd tier WRs.

Well I would rather have one of those top 3 WR prospects to fall or either Bowers at TE or Arnold at corner. If none are available I would want a trade down. 

[richard pallo]

23 minutes ago, Solid84 said:

I think we're in a pretty good position this year.

 

3-4 QBs taken ahead of us, 2-4 Tackles, 2-3 WRs, Bowers, maybe a CB, maybe a DE, maybe a DT.

 

We're in great position for one of the top DEs, DTs, CBs and one of the top 2nd tier WRs.

We know Ballard loves the trenches.  So if he has success in FA at WR and secondary I can see DT with pick 15 or DE.  It really depends on FA for me.  He could make a couple of significant additions if he decides to spend this year.

[Solid84]

Just now, BProland85 said:

Well I would rather have one of those top 3 WR prospects to fall or either Bowers at TE or Arnold at corner. If none are available I would want a trade down. 

I get that and I don't think a trade down is unlikely. But, at 15 I'd be happy with any of:

• Quinyon Mitchell, CB
• Jared Verse, DE
• Chop Robinson, DE
• Jer'Zhan Newton, DT
• Byron Murphy, DT
• Brian Thomas Jr., WR

A trade back in the first could still get us:

• Jackson Powers-Johnson, OC
• Nate Wiggins, CB
• Cooper DeJean, DB
• Kool-Aid McKinstry, CB
• Tyler Nubin, S
• Kamren Kinchens, S
• Adonai Mitchell, WR

Lots of possibilities in the first for us.

[Superman]

16 minutes ago, Solid84 said:

• Quinyon Mitchell, CB
• Jared Verse, DE
• Chop Robinson, DE
• Jer'Zhan Newton, DT
• Byron Murphy, DT
• Brian Thomas Jr., WR

 

Opinions will vary on these guys, but several of them are worthy of #15, IMO. Some of your trade back candidates will probably go in the top 15. I think people fall in love with their favorite prospects, and then feel like no one else should be taken that high. Or they prioritize certain positions and think players at other positions should not be drafted unless we trade back.

 

I think Brian Thomas is interesting. He seems like a potential top 20 guy to me.

[KB]

21 minutes ago, Superman said:

 

Opinions will vary on these guys, but several of them are worthy of #15, IMO. Some of your trade back candidates will probably go in the top 15. I think people fall in love with their favorite prospects, and then feel like no one else should be taken that high. Or they prioritize certain positions and think players at other positions should not be drafted unless we trade back.

 

I think Brian Thomas is interesting. He seems like a potential top 20 guy to me.

Brian Thomas to me is a boom or bust kind of pick. Will he be LSU Brian, or Michigan St. Brian. The biggest thing I question about him is if was really that dominant this past year, or if he flourished because most of the attention was on Nabers.

Saying that, a good showing this week and he will probably be solidified as WR4 on many boards.

Personally, I wouldn't be happy if we took him at 15. There's gonna be better available talent. 

[Superman]

6 minutes ago, KB said:

Brian Thomas to me is a boom or bust kind of pick. Will he be LSU Brian, or Michigan St. Brian. The biggest thing I question about him is if was really that dominant this past year, or if he flourished because most of the attention was on Nabers.

Saying that, a good showing this week and he will probably be solidified as WR4 on many boards.

Personally, I wouldn't be happy if we took him at 15. There's gonna be better available talent. 

 

If he has a good week at the Combine, he'll start getting a lot more top 20 buzz. I agree that he could be the 4th WR this year. As for how much he benefited from playing with Nabers, there's no question that's a boost for him, but it's probably a two way street. And the stat sheet isn't what makes him attractive. I see speed, size, ability to separate, big catch ability, hands, toughness, explosiveness, and a lot of upside as a route runner/technician. 

 

What do you mean by the bolded? He played all three years at LSU, and never played against Michigan State. What's the connection there?

 

Everyone will have their own ideas and opinions. It's not hard for me to see him as a good option at #15, but it's my opinion that we're not drafting a WR in the first round anyway.

[stitches]

Ever since that LSU championship team, I kind of have been a fan of the reverse theory - when you have another dominant receiver on your team, it's even more impressive if you manage to stack up such insane production. Chase and Jefferson were amazing together and at the time everybody thought Jefferson is benefiting from Chase, but the reality is... there is only one ball. And if it goes to one player at disproportionately high volume, commanding huge portion of the remaining volume is actually a huge positive. It shows that even if you are not the 1st option on this particular team, you are able to accumulate big numbers and there is possibly some hidden potential to be a no. 1 receiver. Kind of like Jefferson has been able to prove in the league. Kind of like Olave has been able to do, too. 

 

Big production at high level, combined with high level traits is like catnip for me, when we talk about receivers, and the presence of another big time receiver on the team is not really something that will dissuade me from selecting that player. If anything, I feel like there is some unexplored value there. 

[ColtStrong2013]

2 hours ago, Solid84 said:

I get that and I don't think a trade down is unlikely. But, at 15 I'd be happy with any of:

• Quinyon Mitchell, CB
• Jared Verse, DE
• Chop Robinson, DE
• Jer'Zhan Newton, DT
• Byron Murphy, DT
• Brian Thomas Jr., WR

A trade back in the first could still get us:

• Jackson Powers-Johnson, OC
• Nate Wiggins, CB
• Cooper DeJean, DB
• Kool-Aid McKinstry, CB
• Tyler Nubin, S
• Kamren Kinchens, S
• Adonai Mitchell, WR

Lots of possibilities in the first for us.

I like the idea of addressing skill positions in free agency and doubling down on DE/DT if the value is there. Verse and Jenkins being who I like the most. 

[KB]

53 minutes ago, Superman said:

 

What do you mean by the bolded? He played all three years at LSU, and never played against Michigan State. What's the connection there?

My bad. Wrong prospect. I think I might be reading to many scouting reports and starting to mix information lol.

 

Keon Coleman went to Michigan St and wasn't spectacular there vs this last season.

 

Yeah its all opinion. To each their own. I agree that it won't be WR in the first unless Nabers or Odunze fall. BPA even at a position of need will point to a defensive prospect IMO.

[smittywerb]

Know it’s only a mock, but I hope the draft doesn’t play like this because we’d be out on both bowers and Arnold.  I still think we should go for WR if it’s Brian Thomas.  If it’s anyone else, I’m for trading back unless any of the pass rushers left are bonafide difference makers (which idk).

 

if we want bowers or Arnold, we’ll probably have to trade up, which we probably won’t do, so my bet is we trade back.

 

i will say, 2 of these picks could go either way, the cardinals and titans.  Both could use receivers but also OL.  If one or both of them go OL, we could get bowers or Arnold.

 

 

 

[Lifetime Colt]

1 hour ago, ColtStrong2013 said:

I like the idea of addressing skill positions in free agency and doubling down on DE/DT if the value is there. Verse and Jenkins being who I like the most. 

I am not saying you are wrong, it is after all just your opinion/philosophy on how you view team building.

 

My outlook on it is to draft ( first 3-4 rounds) the skill, big $$ contract players ( WR, CB, Edge, QB, LT) generally. There are exceptions early in every draft, like this year, Bowers (TE), Kinchens (S), Edgerrin Cooper(LB),Sweat (DT), if they, or similar, are available when the Colts turn comes each round. Having 4-5 year rookie contracts, if they become major contributors, builds a year over year solid, Cap manageable team. Lower rounds would be looking for depth, and high potential picks for current players high contract expirations or retirement in the not too distant future. 

 

FA can be ideal for that absolute need position as a starter for the right deal, and player, like Gilmore signing was. It also is a method to fill the LB, Safety, RB, DL/OL quality back-ups, TE positions. It depends on the current team status if you splurge on 1-2 skill guys, or 3-5,$6-$10 mil guys. 

 

JMO, know others have different thoughts, that's cool with me, just want to see a winning team. 

[Dingus McGirt]

IMO - the team needs an absolute offensive game-changer at 1-15.  Is Bowers that?  If so, Ballard needs to go get him.  No more “value pick” trading back.  It’s blue chip time.  JMO, of course.

[Superman]

1 hour ago, stitches said:

Ever since that LSU championship team, I kind of have been a fan of the reverse theory - when you have another dominant receiver on your team, it's even more impressive if you manage to stack up such insane production. Chase and Jefferson were amazing together and at the time everybody thought Jefferson is benefiting from Chase, but the reality is... there is only one ball. And if it goes to one player at disproportionately high volume, commanding huge portion of the remaining volume is actually a huge positive. It shows that even if you are not the 1st option on this particular team, you are able to accumulate big numbers and there is possibly some hidden potential to be a no. 1 receiver. Kind of like Jefferson has been able to prove in the league. Kind of like Olave has been able to do, too. 

 

Big production at high level, combined with high level traits is like catnip for me, when we talk about receivers, and the presence of another big time receiver on the team is not really something that will dissuade me from selecting that player. If anything, I feel like there is some unexplored value there. 

 

I think this is a legit point. We have seen plenty of teams with one good receiving option, and they just feed the #1 guy, and everyone else gets scraps. To put up 1,200 yards and 17 TDs, there's some talent on display. Just look at how he beats defenders in the red zone.

 

But like everything else, it needs to be contextualized, and the best way to do that is to watch them play. If Nabers is getting bracketed and Thomas is working against backup level defenders, that definitely needs to be acknowledged in the evaluation. But more likely, he's facing the same coverages as everyone else, including Nabers, and is still putting up numbers. Plus the traits are obvious, and even though I gravitate more toward technically proficient WRs, you still need pro level traits to have a chance in the NFL. We'll see where Thomas' traits line up after the Combine.

[Superman]

1 hour ago, KB said:

My bad. Wrong prospect. I think I might be reading to many scouting reports and starting to mix information lol.

 

Keon Coleman went to Michigan St and wasn't spectacular there vs this last season.

 

Yeah its all opinion. To each their own. I agree that it won't be WR in the first unless Nabers or Odunze fall. BPA even at a position of need will point to a defensive prospect IMO.

 

Got it. I agree with your concerns on Coleman. He was actually more productive at Michigan State. His stats aren't impressive at either school.

 

He has some crazy highlights. His ability to high point the ball is eye popping, and he does well in contested situations. But the more I've watched him, the more I start putting him in the N'Keal Harry category. Coleman is probably more athletic, but he's not a burner, and not overly quick. Maybe the reason we see all these contested catches is because he's not getting a lot of separation. And that's not going to get better in the NFL. I know he was the punt returner and showed some wiggle at times, he's obviously tough and physical, but I'm not blown away by him. And I could be seeing it wrong, maybe he's more explosive than I think, but I'm skeptical for right now.

 

To the BPA point, I think we have a ton of needs. Our roster has a lot of players that I would call adequate, but I would not hesitate to upgrade their spots. Everyone sees WR and TE as a need, but I think we could consider OL a serious need, depending on how you see certain players (C/RG/RT). And pretty much every position on defense is a need. There's going to be some separation among prospects in the 10-20 range, and there's still positional value to consider, but outside of QB and RB, every other position qualifies as a need, IMO. And like you said, the way it looks right now, we'll probably have a lot of similarly rated defensive players to choose from, at different positions.

[KB]

6 minutes ago, Superman said:

To the BPA point, I think we have a ton of needs. Our roster has a lot of players that I would call adequate, but I would not hesitate to upgrade their spots. Everyone sees WR and TE as a need, but I think we could consider OL a serious need, depending on how you see certain players (C/RG/RT). And pretty much every position on defense is a need. There's going to be some separation among prospects in the 10-20 range, and there's still positional value to consider, but outside of QB and RB, every other position qualifies as a need, IMO. And like you said, the way it looks right now, we'll probably have a lot of similarly rated defensive players to choose from, at different positions.

I say BPA at a position of need to save myself from the posts of "what if a qb is the best available". I believe in BPA and common sense should prevail if you have a top player at the position.

 

What's considered a need is a whole conversation in itself. Do we consider upgrading a certain player who is adequate a need? I wouldn't say a need but if the opportunity presents itself let's take it. How far into the future does something become a need. We're reaching the Costanzo situation where we didn't have an heir on the roster, but for multiple spots now. LG, C, and RT are all filled with aging players. We have some time for LG hopefully, but Kelly and Smith are taking lumps (Freeman could possibly repalce Smith). The teams needs arnt as cut and dry as years past where it was "Fix the lines. Yes both of them."

 

I agree we have needs all over the defensive side of the ball. Safety is a weak position group, and needs to be fixed. There isn't a starter quality player in that group. Even if Blackmon comes back we need more. That's the only position group that needs outright fixing IMO. We need a stud pass rusher but so do most teams. If we get a chance at one we have to take it. Might not work but gotta take the chance. The rest of the needs would be upgrades (experienced CB), depth that can become the starter one day (backup NT and slot CB), and just outright depth (3T). You can put LB in any of the three spots. Offense is looking for a top WR, TE room needs fresh talent (Theo Johnson please), and Oline depth that can grow into starters. Backup qb could be interesting. That's how I view the needs. Not a ranking.

[chad72]

@Superman @KB I am not hinging my WR corps upside on Keon Coleman.

 

I would feel better even with a clone of Pittman in Adonai Mitchell but I do agree with Steve Smith, he is a 90% body catcher. He doesn't snatch it in the air.

 

 

 

Summary of Steve Smith's video evaluation, take it for what it is worth:

 

Rome Odunze - didn’t play a lot of great competition

Keon Coleman - “does some good things but not gonna tip my hat”

Adonai Mitchell - 90% body catcher according to Steve smith and quotes “I’m just saying” (Mitchell gets to the points ahead of the DB because he can separate in college but if he is not going to go for the ball with his hands and that split second in the NFL will result in more incomplete catches)

Xavier Legette- Steve Smith thinks he’s DK Metcalf 2.0

Xavier Worthy - taller Tank Dell

Jalyn Polk- just a dawg

Ladd Mcconkey - really good really savvy

Brian Thomas Jr- growing on him

Malachi Corley - Steal of draft

Troy Franklin - comp : Jordan Addison

Johnny Wilson - not a good multi tasker (doesn’t like him much)

Brenden Rice- comp : Isaiah Pacheco lol 😂 thinks he’s a maniac

Devontez walker - fast but needs to work on catching ball better

Tory Horton - thinks his stock will go up

Roman Wilson - also going up and impressed with him

Ricky Pearsall- stock rising

Javon Baker- too much at the line just go

Jha’Quan Jackson - likes him sparked some interest in Steve

 

 

[smittywerb]

26 minutes ago, chad72 said:

@Superman @KB I am not hinging my WR corps upside on Keon Coleman.

 

I would feel better even with a clone of Pittman in Adonai Mitchell but I do agree with Steve Smith, he is a 90% body catcher. He doesn't snatch it in the air.

 

 

 

Summary of Steve Smith's video evaluation, take it for what it is worth:

 

Rome Odunze - didn’t play a lot of great competition

Keon Coleman - “does some good things but not gonna tip my hat”

Adonai Mitchell - 90% body catcher according to Steve smith and quotes “I’m just saying” (Mitchell gets to the points ahead of the DB because he can separate in college but if he is not going to go for the ball with his hands and that split second in the NFL will result in more incomplete catches)

Xavier Legette- Steve Smith thinks he’s DK Metcalf 2.0

Xavier Worthy - taller Tank Dell

Jalyn Polk- just a dawg

Ladd Mcconkey - really good really savvy

Brian Thomas Jr- growing on him

Malachi Corley - Steal of draft

Troy Franklin - comp : Jordan Addison

Johnny Wilson - not a good multi tasker (doesn’t like him much)

Brenden Rice- comp : Isaiah Pacheco lol 😂 thinks he’s a maniac

Devontez walker - fast but needs to work on catching ball better

Tory Horton - thinks his stock will go up

Roman Wilson - also going up and impressed with him

Ricky Pearsall- stock rising

Javon Baker- too much at the line just go

Jha’Quan Jackson - likes him sparked some interest in Steve

 

 

On my personal WR watchlist, I have leggette, Corley, Polk, and Thomas.  Idc where we grab them, but if we walk away with one or two of these dudes, I’m satisfied.

 

my dream scenario is bowers falls to 15 and we grab leggette in the second.  A man can dream right lol

[Superman]

1 hour ago, KB said:

I say BPA at a position of need to save myself from the posts of "what if a qb is the best available". I believe in BPA and common sense should prevail if you have a top player at the position.

 

What's considered a need is a whole conversation in itself. Do we consider upgrading a certain player who is adequate a need? I wouldn't say a need but if the opportunity presents itself let's take it. How far into the future does something become a need. We're reaching the Costanzo situation where we didn't have an heir on the roster, but for multiple spots now. LG, C, and RT are all filled with aging players. We have some time for LG hopefully, but Kelly and Smith are taking lumps (Freeman could possibly repalce Smith). The teams needs arnt as cut and dry as years past where it was "Fix the lines. Yes both of them."

 

I agree we have needs all over the defensive side of the ball. Safety is a weak position group, and needs to be fixed. There isn't a starter quality player in that group. Even if Blackmon comes back we need more. That's the only position group that needs outright fixing IMO. We need a stud pass rusher but so do most teams. If we get a chance at one we have to take it. Might not work but gotta take the chance. The rest of the needs would be upgrades (experienced CB), depth that can become the starter one day (backup NT and slot CB), and just outright depth (3T). You can put LB in any of the three spots. Offense is looking for a top WR, TE room needs fresh talent (Theo Johnson please), and Oline depth that can grow into starters. Backup qb could be interesting. That's how I view the needs. Not a ranking.

 

Great post.

 

Adequate vs need -- I think Franklin and Speed are adequate at LBer, but I think LBer is a position of need. Neither of them are top tier at their position. Add in the fact that Franklin is in the last year of his contract, and we have no proven depth behind either of them, and I think it's one of the biggest needs on the roster.

 

Similar logic at other spots, like every DB position. Buckner/Grover are a good duo, there's little depth behind them, and Grover is a FA that I'm not excited about paying. So Newton or Murphy could be strong candidates at #15. Chop Robinson seems like a Ballard prototype, even though I'm not sure how much I like him. Half the board would revolt if we took any DL, because we had 51 sacks last year, but I think it would make perfect sense.

 

And to make my point clear, I'm not down on the roster overall, but we need difference makers, preferably at high value positions. We have a lot of solid guys, but we're lacking standout performers. Our best WR is probably a #2, and he doesn't get in the end zone. Our pass rush is by committee, the only guy who commands a double team in pass situations is a 29 year old DT with one year on his contract. Etc. We can win with solid, adequate guys filling out the roster, but only if we also have force multipliers -- difference makers who are raising the overall level of play. And we also have young guys who probably haven't reached their ceilings, so my evaluation is subject to change, but looking at it right now, you can throw a dart and hit a position of need.

 

Side point, but at OL, I'm not against putting Freeman at RT and moving Smith to RG, but that depends on Freeman being able to perform. We still need depth, and a plan at center for 2025.

[Superman]

1 hour ago, chad72 said:

@Superman @KB I am not hinging my WR corps upside on Keon Coleman.

 

I would feel better even with a clone of Pittman in Adonai Mitchell but I do agree with Steve Smith, he is a 90% body catcher. He doesn't snatch it in the air.

 

 

 

Summary of Steve Smith's video evaluation, take it for what it is worth:

 

Rome Odunze - didn’t play a lot of great competition

Keon Coleman - “does some good things but not gonna tip my hat”

Adonai Mitchell - 90% body catcher according to Steve smith and quotes “I’m just saying” (Mitchell gets to the points ahead of the DB because he can separate in college but if he is not going to go for the ball with his hands and that split second in the NFL will result in more incomplete catches)

Xavier Legette- Steve Smith thinks he’s DK Metcalf 2.0

Xavier Worthy - taller Tank Dell

Jalyn Polk- just a dawg

Ladd Mcconkey - really good really savvy

Brian Thomas Jr- growing on him

Malachi Corley - Steal of draft

Troy Franklin - comp : Jordan Addison

Johnny Wilson - not a good multi tasker (doesn’t like him much)

Brenden Rice- comp : Isaiah Pacheco lol 😂 thinks he’s a maniac

Devontez walker - fast but needs to work on catching ball better

Tory Horton - thinks his stock will go up

Roman Wilson - also going up and impressed with him

Ricky Pearsall- stock rising

Javon Baker- too much at the line just go

Jha’Quan Jackson - likes him sparked some interest in Steve

 

 

 

I saw this on Reddit earlier. I still want to watch the video. But I felt the same way in my brief viewing of Mitchell. 

[Zoltan]

I have to say Steve Smith has some weird comps and some I just don't get

1 hour ago, chad72 said:

Troy Franklin - comp : Jordan Addison

This one I don't understand because Franklin and Addison play very differently. Addison is a guy that find the whole in the zone and is very technical in his routes, while Franklin who is 4 inches taller is more of a deep threat burner. The closest similarity is that they are both underweight than what you would want. 

1 hour ago, chad72 said:

Xavier Legette- Steve Smith thinks he’s DK Metcalf 2.0

 

This is another one I don't get as DK Metcalf was an athletic freak with all the measurables. Which if you go by just what his 40 time was I get but Metcalf is 3" taller, 1" bigger hands, 3" longer arms, while also putting up 27 reps on the bench. We will see Legette at the combine and how he does on his official measurements and scores but I just don't see him comparing to the Metcalf craziness. 

 

1 hour ago, chad72 said:

Adonai Mitchell - 90% body catcher

 

If a WR is a consistent body catcher, that would take him off my board, catching gets harder in the NFL and idk if you can fix ability to catch.

[chad72]

2 hours ago, Zoltan said:

I have to say Steve Smith has some weird comps and some I just don't get

This one I don't understand because Franklin and Addison play very differently. Addison is a guy that find the whole in the zone and is very technical in his routes, while Franklin who is 4 inches taller is more of a deep threat burner. The closest similarity is that they are both underweight than what you would want. 

 

This is another one I don't get as DK Metcalf was an athletic freak with all the measurables. Which if you go by just what his 40 time was I get but Metcalf is 3" taller, 1" bigger hands, 3" longer arms, while also putting up 27 reps on the bench. We will see Legette at the combine and how he does on his official measurements and scores but I just don't see him comparing to the Metcalf craziness. 

 

 

If a WR is a consistent body catcher, that would take him off my board, catching gets harder in the NFL and idk if you can fix ability to catch.

I get the Addison comparisons a bit with body type but maybe Steve Smith feels coaching can teach someone to run routes even as a burner. I compare Troy Franklin to a taller DJax that folks had to give a cushion due to speed thus allowing comeback routes and the occasional double move or if it’s single safety high, a possible post move based on where the safety is.

 

Legette, he has only 1 year of production vs Metcalf in college, that’s the comparison that I don’t agree with. But Franklin is definitely worth the upside at No.46, no doubt 

 

I see Adonai Mitchell catching style like MVS. If it hits you in the numbers, you are a body catcher and will bring it down but if your catch radius is tested a bit more and it’s not a perfect ball in stride like Mahomes threw sometimes, you’re not going to come down with it.

 

 

[Superman]

From Albert Breer/SI: https://www.si.com/nfl/2024/02/26/draft-preview-combine-cheat-sheet-questions

 

Quote

“It’s a really good draft to need a quarterback or tackle,” added an AFC exec. “It’s really good at the premium positions in general.”

...

So we’ve established quarterback as a strength. Tackle and receiver are, too. 

...

"It’s gonna be one of those [receiver] classes where you don’t have to pull the trigger early.” (Jim Nagy, Senior Bowl director)

...

On defense, corner was consistently raised as the best position, even if there’s not a Sauce Gardner or Patrick Surtain II to top the class. Alabama’s Terrion Arnold and Toledo’s Quinyon Mitchell are likely to both go in the top 20. Per Nagy, “middle of the first to the beginning of Day 3 probably, you’re going to be able to get starters. Last year, the Raiders took [Jakorian Bennett] in the fourth round … I think it’s going to be the same.”

...

There also aren’t a ton of pure pass-rushers at the top end of the draft, with Alabama’s Dallas Turner (whose production didn’t quite match his athletic profile) and Florida State’s Jared Verse heading up that group.

...

I thought this, from Nagy, was pretty interesting: “I think this thing really drops off on Day 3. You’re going to get through four rounds and then the fifth through seventh rounds have completely been wiped off the board. I put a tweet out about this about a month ago because it happened to our board. All these kids right now with NIL are kind of guinea pigs.”

...

“Sure, certain positions like DL seem thin and could use the juice of a few more potential starters on Day 2. Ohio State’s returning haul has definitely been a topic of conversation in front offices,” wrote Muench (Steve Muench, ESPN/3STEP Sports). “But as a whole, this is a pretty deep class at most of the high priority positions: QB, WR, OT, CB. And I can’t think of any eligible prospects who would have been sure-fire top-10 picks that turned down the NFL for NIL money. “

 

A lot of good info in there, but I really noticed that people are stressing how deep they think the draft is at positions that everyone wants the Colts to target. And it makes me think that there will be value on Day 2, at WR and CB especially, and OL. The positions that are probably at more of a premium in the first round will be DT/DE. DT especially lines up with a major roster need for the Colts, and aligns with Ballard's philosophy of building the trenches.

 

One more snippet:

Quote

 

Who is going to star at the combine?

I love this one. From our scouts, we got Texas DT Byron Murphy—“He might run a 4.8 at 305 pounds”

 

 

[ColtStrong2013]

2 hours ago, Superman said:

From Albert Breer/SI: https://www.si.com/nfl/2024/02/26/draft-preview-combine-cheat-sheet-questions

 

 

A lot of good info in there, but I really noticed that people are stressing how deep they think the draft is at positions that everyone wants the Colts to target. And it makes me think that there will be value on Day 2, at WR and CB especially, and OL. The positions that are probably at more of a premium in the first round will be DT/DE. DT especially lines up with a major roster need for the Colts, and aligns with Ballard's philosophy of building the trenches.

 

One more snippet:

 

 

This is how I feel...

On 2/26/2024 at 2:43 PM, ColtStrong2013 said:

I like the idea of addressing skill positions in free agency and doubling down on DE/DT if the value is there. Verse and Jenkins being who I like the most. 

 

From a roster building standpoint, it seems to make most sense. Especially given the talent at skill positions in the draft. This is assuming we are tagging/resigning Pittman, which I believe we do. But a depth piece in free agency there and a day 2 pick might not be a bad thing. It's certainly more of Ballard's way of doing things. I can't imagine we don't pick up Paye's 5th year. Assuming as much, and drafting someone like Verse would time out well with not relying on him too much from the get-go. He would be a good rotational piece early while we evaluate and give Paye another 2 seasons to earn a bigger paycheck. Dayo, to me, is the odd duck in the picture, with him going into the final year of his contract. You are probably correct in the thought that DT is more pressing. If we don't sign/replace Grover, I'm not sure what the plan is. But the clock is ticking on he and Buckner, no matter which way you look at it. 

Also, Ballard has repeatedly stated that he and Steichen see eye-to-eye on the concept of building the trenches. So I think there will be continued investment there. 

[richard pallo]

40 minutes ago, ColtStrong2013 said:

 

This is how I feel...

 

From a roster building standpoint, it seems to make most sense. Especially given the talent at skill positions in the draft. This is assuming we are tagging/resigning Pittman, which I believe we do. But a depth piece in free agency there and a day 2 pick might not be a bad thing. It's certainly more of Ballard's way of doing things. I can't imagine we don't pick up Paye's 5th year. Assuming as much, and drafting someone like Verse would time out well with not relying on him too much from the get-go. He would be a good rotational piece early while we evaluate and give Paye another 2 seasons to earn a bigger paycheck. Dayo, to me, is the odd duck in the picture, with him going into the final year of his contract. You are probably correct in the thought that DT is more pressing. If we don't sign/replace Grover, I'm not sure what the plan is. But the clock is ticking on he and Buckner, no matter which way you look at it. 

Also, Ballard has repeatedly stated that he and Steichen see eye-to-eye on the concept of building the trenches. So I think there will be continued investment there. 

I wouldn’t be surprised if Dayo winds up taking over the starting DE spot over Paye.  His numbers this year were more impressive than Payes on much fewer snaps.  New DL coach coming on board so new eyes and coaching might change things up there.  I don’t think Paye has demonstrated enough to have his option picked but they probably will.  I’m not sure Grover is coming back either.  He will be turning 31 when the season starts and I would think he will be looking for a big contract again.  This is a good FA defensive tackle class.  There are a number of good younger tackles that I think would do well next to Buckner.  Regardless I’m expecting we will be drafting a Defensive Tackle somewhere in the first three rounds.

[Restinpeacesweetchloe]

36 minutes ago, richard pallo said:

I wouldn’t be surprised if Dayo winds up taking over the starting DE spot over Paye.  His numbers this year were more impressive than Payes on much fewer snaps.  New DL coach coming on board so new eyes and coaching might change things up there.  I don’t think Paye has demonstrated enough to have his option picked but they probably will.  I’m not sure Grover is coming back either.  He will be turning 31 when the season starts and I would think he will be looking for a big contract again.  This is a good FA defensive tackle class.  There are a number of good younger tackles that I think would do well next to Buckner.  Regardless I’m expecting we will be drafting a Defensive Tackle somewhere in the first three rounds.

I don’t worry too much with DT when it comes to age. They seem to be able to play at a high level for a long time. I am surprised we haven’t had any extensions of any of our players yet.  Grover has been durable and just doesn’t get injured.

[ColtStrong2013]

47 minutes ago, richard pallo said:

I wouldn’t be surprised if Dayo winds up taking over the starting DE spot over Paye.  His numbers this year were more impressive than Payes on much fewer snaps.  New DL coach coming on board so new eyes and coaching might change things up there.  I don’t think Paye has demonstrated enough to have his option picked but they probably will.  I’m not sure Grover is coming back either.  He will be turning 31 when the season starts and I would think he will be looking for a big contract again.  This is a good FA defensive tackle class.  There are a number of good younger tackles that I think would do well next to Buckner.  Regardless I’m expecting we will be drafting a Defensive Tackle somewhere in the first three rounds.

I don’t see that. But I do like Dayo’s versatility, and I think his ceiling might be higher than Paye’s. I think Paye has a chance to take another jump, which would surprise a lot people for some reason. He’s improved every year. He was playing really well at the beginning of the season before injuries came in the picture. As Ballard said, he was really good against the run, just need more consistent pass rush. Maybe a new coach is all that is needed with that aspect of his game. I think we see a jump across the entire d-line with our new coach. Sometimes a tweak or two, and a new energy is all that is needed. Buckner would stand out even more if the others brought more consistent pass rush. This line could really work wonders collectively if they each improve going into next season. 

[richard pallo]

11 minutes ago, Restinpeacesweetchloe said:

I don’t worry too much with DT when it comes to age. They seem to be able to play at a high level for a long time. I am surprised we haven’t had any extensions of any of our players yet.  Grover has been durable and just doesn’t get injured.

I’m surprised too.  I was expecting extensions this week but it’s not over yet of course.  I actually thought Rigo was going to be the first.  Like I said I’m not sure with Grover.  I’m sure the Colts were very unhappy and disappointed with his suspension.  He can do his best to explain it away but it happened and it was a third of the season.  I think everyone is expecting him back but I am not sure he will be.  These extensions shouldn’t be taking this long with the possible exception for Pittman.

[ColtStrong2013]

16 minutes ago, Restinpeacesweetchloe said:

I don’t worry too much with DT when it comes to age. They seem to be able to play at a high level for a long time. I am surprised we haven’t had any extensions of any of our players yet.  Grover has been durable and just doesn’t get injured.

I worry about age no matter the position. Just because some of the big names at DT over the years had longevity, doesn’t mean it is absolute. Any time a man hits 30, he is no longer peak and subject to changes in his body, injuries, longer recovery time, etc. It’s the case for military- special forces especially. Many of those guys rely on ped’s as the get older to push through…. Obviously Grover got caught with his hand in the jar on that note. It’s aways a concern. 

[Superman]

1 hour ago, ColtStrong2013 said:

 

This is how I feel...

 

From a roster building standpoint, it seems to make most sense. Especially given the talent at skill positions in the draft. This is assuming we are tagging/resigning Pittman, which I believe we do. But a depth piece in free agency there and a day 2 pick might not be a bad thing. It's certainly more of Ballard's way of doing things. I can't imagine we don't pick up Paye's 5th year. Assuming as much, and drafting someone like Verse would time out well with not relying on him too much from the get-go. He would be a good rotational piece early while we evaluate and give Paye another 2 seasons to earn a bigger paycheck. Dayo, to me, is the odd duck in the picture, with him going into the final year of his contract. You are probably correct in the thought that DT is more pressing. If we don't sign/replace Grover, I'm not sure what the plan is. But the clock is ticking on he and Buckner, no matter which way you look at it. 

Also, Ballard has repeatedly stated that he and Steichen see eye-to-eye on the concept of building the trenches. So I think there will be continued investment there. 

 

I don't know if they can keep paying Grover, and at some point they probably need to split up Grover and Buckner, just based on their age, pay, and where the team is. It wouldn't surprise me if Grover signs elsewhere. He's obviously been a big part of the team for a while, but big money should go to big impact players.

 

Speaking of, I don't know if we'll pick up Paye's 5th year option. It's $13m, guaranteed. Why should we? If he has a good 2024, then let's talk about an extension. But locking him in at that level doesn't make sense to me, based on his impact and production so far. And then with Dayo on deck, if he looks like the better player in 2024, and we have to make a choice, it would be unfortunate to have committed $13m to the lesser player. I think it's best to let them both play out their final year, and handle it next offseason.

 

No predictions from me either way. But the way our roster aligns with the strengths of the draft, I could see DL in the first. Like you said, some solid free agents at specific positions -- WR, OL, backup QB, maybe CB -- and then go clear-minded into the draft, and let the board do what it does.

[ColtStrong2013]

32 minutes ago, Superman said:

 

I don't know if they can keep paying Grover, and at some point they probably need to split up Grover and Buckner, just based on their age, pay, and where the team is. It wouldn't surprise me if Grover signs elsewhere. He's obviously been a big part of the team for a while, but big money should go to big impact players.

 

Speaking of, I don't know if we'll pick up Paye's 5th year option. It's $13m, guaranteed. Why should we? If he has a good 2024, then let's talk about an extension. But locking him in at that level doesn't make sense to me, based on his impact and production so far. And then with Dayo on deck, if he looks like the better player in 2024, and we have to make a choice, it would be unfortunate to have committed $13m to the lesser player. I think it's best to let them both play out their final year, and handle it next offseason.

 

No predictions from me either way. But the way our roster aligns with the strengths of the draft, I could see DL in the first. Like you said, some solid free agents at specific positions -- WR, OL, backup QB, maybe CB -- and then go clear-minded into the draft, and let the board do what it does.

I agree on the money with Grover, I just hope there is a good plan in place to replace him. I feel like Buckner might be on his last tour here in Indianapolis considering Ballard had to convince him to stay last year. If we make the playoffs, then I could see him wanting to finish his career here. If not, he’s gone in my eyes. 
 

speaking of convincing-
 

That’s a good point on making it a competition between Dayo and Paye. I never thought of it like that, and would now have to agree. If you aren’t an attorney, you are missing a hell of an opportunity… 😂 

 

I think they are in a good position to take what the board gives them. Maybe better than in all of Ballard’s tenure really, not that it stopped him from taking what was given anyways. I don’t look for him to trade back as I think he could have what he views as a premium player. It might just happen to be a player that can impact right away, which would be great. But if it’s on the defensive line, I wouldn’t be as disappointed as most people likely would for the situation we are in with the four players mentioned above.

[csmopar]

1 hour ago, richard pallo said:

I’m surprised too.  I was expecting extensions this week but it’s not over yet of course.  I actually thought Rigo was going to be the first.  Like I said I’m not sure with Grover.  I’m sure the Colts were very unhappy and disappointed with his suspension.  He can do his best to explain it away but it happened and it was a third of the season.  I think everyone is expecting him back but I am not sure he will be.  These extensions shouldn’t be taking this long with the possible exception for Pittman.

My guess is the hold up is Pittman. If I’m an agent of Grover’s or the others, I’m holding out until Pittman is signed or tagged. It backs the colts into a corner and forces them to either pay more without having the tag looming over the others, or it gives my guys at minimum the tag salary.

4 minutes ago, ColtStrong2013 said:

I agree on the money with Grover, I just hope there is a good plan in place to replace him. I feel like Buckner might be on his last tour here in Indianapolis considering Ballard had to convince him to stay last year. If we make the playoffs, then I could see him wanting to finish his career here. If not, he’s gone in my eyes. 
 

speaking of convincing-
 

That’s a good point on making it a competition between Dayo and Paye. I never thought of it like that, and would now have to agree. If you aren’t an attorney, you are missing a hell of an opportunity… 😂 

 

I think they are in a good position to take what the board gives them. Maybe better than in all of Ballard’s tenure really, not that it stopped him from taking what was given anyways. I don’t look for him to trade back as I think he could have what he views as a premium player. It might just happen to be a player that can impact right away, which would be great. But if it’s on the defensive line, I wouldn’t be as disappointed as most people likely would for the situation we are in with the four players mentioned above.

Source for the Ballard had to convince him line? That’s the first I’ve heard of that 

[ColtStrong2013]

2 minutes ago, ColtStrong2013 said:

That’s a good point on making it a competition between Dayo and Paye. I never thought of it like that, and would now have to agree.

@Superman I guess the only thing that I think of from a longterm standpoint is that perhaps Ballard sees Dayo being Buckner’s replacement, in which case it could make sense to look to keep both players. And in that regard, it would be best to have flexibility with an extension with Paye on a 5th year. That might be a hard thing to plan for though, unless Buckner is for sure on his way out… and in that case, maybe he’s a trade candidate, although unlikely. 
 

Dayo is 15 lbs lighter than Buckner, but very similar otherwise. Longer arms actually. 

[richard pallo]

4 minutes ago, ColtStrong2013 said:

I agree on the money with Grover, I just hope there is a good plan in place to replace him. I feel like Buckner might be on his last tour here in Indianapolis considering Ballard had to convince him to stay last year. If we make the playoffs, then I could see him wanting to finish his career here. If not, he’s gone in my eyes. 
 

speaking of convincing-
 

That’s a good point on making it a competition between Dayo and Paye. I never thought of it like that, and would now have to agree. If you aren’t an attorney, you are missing a hell of an opportunity… 😂 

 

I think they are in a good position to take what the board gives them. Maybe better than in all of Ballard’s tenure really, not that it stopped him from taking what was given anyways. I don’t look for him to trade back as I think he could have what he views as a premium player. It might just happen to be a player that can impact right away, which would be great. But if it’s on the defensive line, I wouldn’t be as disappointed as most people likely would for the situation we are in with the four players mentioned above.

If there is no clear cut winner at a position on the team there should always be a competition.  Paye has not shown he is heads and tails better than Dayo.  That’s why I said it wouldn’t surprise me if Dayo winds up being the starter and wins the competition.

[ColtStrong2013]

5 minutes ago, csmopar said:

10 minutes ago, ColtStrong2013 said:

 

Source for the Ballard had to convince him line? That’s the first I’ve heard of that 

it might have been mostly rumors. But I remember him talking about having a conversation with Ballard at the end of ‘22 and Ballard repeatedly just said “trust me.” 
 

There might have been nothing to that, but that strikes me as a conversation of where things are going and expressing desire to be on a championship contender, which I wouldn’t him blame him for under any circumstances.

[w87r]

6 minutes ago, richard pallo said:

If there is no clear cut winner at a position on the team there should always be a competition.  Paye has not shown he is heads and tails better than Dayo.  That’s why I said it wouldn’t surprise me if Dayo winds up being the starter and wins the competition.

PFF grades:

Paye 74.3 (37/112)

Dayo 56.9 (92/112)

 

 

I know PFF isn't the tell all and some don't like it at all, but they clearly have them 2 on completely different tiers.

 

 

Paye's run defense doesn't get enough recognition.

[Superman]

10 minutes ago, ColtStrong2013 said:

I think they are in a good position to take what the board gives them. Maybe better than in all of Ballard’s tenure really, not that it stopped him from taking what was given anyways. I don’t look for him to trade back as I think he could have what he views as a premium player. It might just happen to be a player that can impact right away, which would be great. But if it’s on the defensive line, I wouldn’t be as disappointed as most people likely would for the situation we are in with the four players mentioned above.

 

Yeah, I usually love talking about trading back. But this year, I think the top 14 will include 3-4 QBs, 3 WRs, 2-3 DBs, and 3-4 OTs. We could get the best 4-3 pass rusher or the best overall 3T in the draft at #15. So I don't think this is the year to trade down, not for the Colts.

[Superman]

4 minutes ago, ColtStrong2013 said:

it might have been mostly rumors. But I remember him talking about having a conversation with Ballard at the end of ‘22 and Ballard repeatedly just said “trust me.” 
 

There might have been nothing to that, but that strikes me as a conversation of where things are going and expressing desire to be on a championship contender, which I wouldn’t him blame him for under any circumstances.

 

I think I remember that, and to me, it sounded like a conversation where Ballard assured him they weren't going to tear it down and bottom out, and that was that. I think Buckner always said he wanted to be in Indy, and there was never any conversations about anything else. 

[Superman]

2 minutes ago, w87r said:

PFF grades:

Paye 74.3 (37/112)

Dayo 56.9 (92/112)

 

 

I know PFF isn't the tell all and some don't like it at all, but they clearly have them 2 completely different tiers.

 

 

Paye's run defense doesn't get enough recognition.

 

I'm sick of hearing about PFF grades, personally. I get why people like them, and I don't think they're worthless, but they get used as authoritative, definitive metrics, and that annoys me. /rant

 

That said, sure, Paye is better against the run and should get more recognition for that. But do you pay a DE on a second contract to defend the run? Or do you want a game changing pass rush threat? 

 

Coltstrong also brings up a good point: Dayo plays inside at 3T at times, and that's a different story in the run game.