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Playoff Predictor/Simulator (538): Colts #11 in AFC, and 38% of chance of playoffs

EastStreet

By EastStreet
in Colts Football

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holeymoley99 Ring of Honor

holeymoley99

Posted
Posted
20 minutes ago, Wentzszn said:

Colts would play ravens if playoffs started today.

 

I expect ravens to lose tomorrow so we will see if Bengals take the division lead tomorrow. Colts might move back down to 6 if ravens lose and Bengals win.

If Bengals win AND Buff loses AND Clev loses.....only then will Ravens be in the 5 seed...Clev holds tiebreaker over ravens because split games and better division record...thus Ravens would be out

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csmopar Ring of Honor

csmopar

Posted
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7 hours ago, Wentzszn said:

With games tomorrow and next week I wonder if there is a possibility for Colts  to clinch a playoff birth after the AZ game if they win. We will see how the next two weeks play out.

I’m sure there is but it’ll probably involve something like the Colts winning in AZ and the entire rest of the AFC losing at least once, either this week or next or both. 

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fatboy Practice Squad

fatboy

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It’s a bit too early to really figure out what seed is most favorable.  A 5 is good as it is the one that is most likely to result in a home game in next round (assuming a win and an upset with lower seeds winning), but with unknowns like injuries and Covid, I’ll just be pleased to make it.   And after seeing how we trotted around the country during bye week on Hard Knocks, I’m shock covid hasn’t hit us yet.

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Restinpeacesweetchloe Ring of Honor

Restinpeacesweetchloe

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10 minutes ago, fatboy said:

It’s a bit too early to really figure out what seed is most favorable.  A 5 is good as it is the one that is most likely to result in a home game in next round (assuming a win and an upset with lower seeds winning), but with unknowns like injuries and Covid, I’ll just be pleased to make it.   And after seeing how we trotted around the country during bye week on Hard Knocks, I’m shock covid hasn’t hit us yet.

I just dont want to have to play pats in the first round in NE. Every other matchup I would be like bring it on.

 

NFL changed testing protocol yesterday so no vaccinated players have to be tested anymore unless they show show symptoms.

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#12. Ring of Honor

#12.

Posted
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5 minutes ago, Wentzszn said:

 

 

NFL changed testing protocol yesterday so no vaccinated players have to be tested anymore unless they show show symptoms.

 

I'm surprised they did it, but it might be the only way to save the season.  Half the league will probably have Omicron in a few weeks.  

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IrsaysArmy Hall of Famer

IrsaysArmy

Posted
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12 minutes ago, Wentzszn said:

I just dont want to have to play pats in the first round in NE. Every other matchup I would be like bring it on.

 

NFL changed testing protocol yesterday so no vaccinated players have to be tested anymore unless they show show symptoms.

Really don’t want to play them again 

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GoColts8818 Ring of Honor

GoColts8818

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3 minutes ago, 2006Coltsbestever said:

% wise, last night was gigantic. That win puts us in the drivers seat regarding WildCard teams.

Basically the only way the Colts don’t make the playoffs now is if they lose out and lose some tiebreakers.  The ravens are the biggest thread to them in that department.  The Colts lost to the “right” teams with three loses coming to the NFC which doesn’t hurt nearly as bad as conference loses.  

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2006Coltsbestever Ring of Honor

2006Coltsbestever

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Just now, GoColts8818 said:

Basically the only way the Colts don’t make the playoffs now is if they lose out and lose some tiebreakers.  The ravens are the biggest thread to them in that department.  The Colts lost to the “right” teams with three loses coming to the NFC which doesn’t hurt nearly as bad as conference loses.  

As long as we beat the Raiders and Jags we will get in unless something goofy happens due to tiebreakers. We could even lose next week and be ok because of last night.

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GoColts8818 Ring of Honor

GoColts8818

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Just now, 2006Coltsbestever said:

Well I don't want to push it, lmao . I think we need 10-7

http://www.espn.com/nfl/playoffs/machine
 

you can play with this but 9-8 is realistic to get the Colts in because of the tie breakers they own.  With that said of course I’d prefer 10-7 or 11-6 because not only do those two keep the division title hopes alive it means a matchup most likely with the Titans or North Champion rather than the Pats or Chiefs.

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John Waylon Ring of Honor

John Waylon

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As middling as the Titans have been lately they aren’t going to lose out. They’re not. Book it. It will not happen.
 

They will beat Houston in Week 18 or Vrabel will start throttling guys on the sidelines during the game. 
 

All they did today was gift Pittsburgh another win in a race we’re trying to stay ahead of. 
 

Let the Titans in. I want a chance to play them again. We owe them one. 

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jskinnz Team Captain

jskinnz

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2 hours ago, Wentzszn said:

If Titans lose to SF and Miami and we beat AZ and LV. Colts are one game ahead in the division. Why do I think that is a real possibility lol.


That is why I thought we need Tenn to win today sentiment was off base. 

 

1 hour ago, John Waylon said:

As middling as the Titans have been lately they aren’t going to lose out. They’re not. Book it. It will not happen.
 

They will beat Houston in Week 18 or Vrabel will start throttling guys on the sidelines during the game. 
 

All they did today was gift Pittsburgh another win in a race we’re trying to stay ahead of. 
 

Let the Titans in. I want a chance to play them again. We owe them one. 


They don’t have to lose out. 

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Restinpeacesweetchloe Ring of Honor

Restinpeacesweetchloe

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48 minutes ago, #12. said:

I would rather not play the Bengals. A good QB with good weapons against our pass defense... That usually doesn't end well.  Of course maybe we'll get lucky and have rain and wind.  

 

 

Thing with Bengals is they can run the ball well and actually play pretty physical. I agree I would not want to play them in that first WC game. I would take anyone except NE, KC, or Bengals.

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dw49 Team Captain

dw49

Posted
Posted
Just now, dw49 said:
1 hour ago, Indyfan4life said:

Do we need Bengals or Broncos to win?

 

Maybe we wanted the Bronco's ? Not sure how the tiebreakers will work out but if Cinn wins the division and we end up with the same record as the Ravens , they would have a head to head win against us. By not "knowing how the tiebreakers would work out" , I mean it could get confusing if multiple teams end up with the same record.

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#12. Ring of Honor

#12.

Posted
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45 minutes ago, Wentzszn said:

 I agree I would not want to play them in that first WC game. I would take anyone except NE, KC, or Bengals.

 

There's only one more, Tennessee.  :)

 

Or, maybe Baltimore or Buffalo, but yeah, I would probably choose Tennessee.

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#12. Ring of Honor

#12.

Posted
Posted
10 minutes ago, Wentzszn said:

Someone can tell me if I am wrong. If colts win in Az Saturday it doesn’t matter who wins bills and pats. But if Colts lose colts need pats to win. We 

 

I think we probably want the Pats to win either way.  Nothing is guaranteed the final two weeks.  We would rather have one of the two a game behind us.  

 

Of course if Tennessee loses Thursday, things start getting really crazy.  If the Titans lose, we win and NE loses, going into the final two weeks, we have a fair shot at the #2 seed.

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Restinpeacesweetchloe Ring of Honor

Restinpeacesweetchloe

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13 minutes ago, #12. said:

 

I think we probably want the Pats to win either way.  Nothing is guaranteed the final two weeks.  We would rather have one of the two a game behind us.  

 

Of course if Tennessee loses Thursday, things start getting really crazy.  If the Titans lose, we win and NE loses, going into the final two weeks, we have a fair shot at the #2 seed.

That would be so crazy.

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GoColts8818 Ring of Honor

GoColts8818

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3 hours ago, IrsaysArmy said:

9-8 gets us in?

Very likely would but it would probably be the seven seed which means New England, Buffalo, or KC in all likely hood.

 

The key here is the Colts hold tie breakers over just about any team they are in a race in other than a head to head with Baltimore.  Also, the Steelers having a tie is hurting them and the fact that the Ravens, Browns, or Bengals will win the north removing one of the from the equation.  Same with the bills and pats.  That’s leaves the Chargers, Miami, Raiders, and Broncos still in the hunt but the the Raiders and Broncos are pretty much on life support at this point and will probably fall out as both still have to play KC and the Chargers.  Miami at best could go 10-7 but still have the Saints, Titans, and Pats.  They are in all likely hood not winning all of those games.  Heck you could argue they might not win again this season.  
 

So realistically it’s the Chargers, Colts, and the teams that don’t get in from the north and east and the north is going beat up on itself the last few weeks as all of four of those teams have several games with each other.  Odds are one of those teams is getting in as the champion.  Another MIGHT be able to sneak in as the 7 seed if the wheels come off for the Colts, Chargers or Bills/Pats but looking at this as a Colts fan only the Ravens would win a head to head tie breaker with the Colts of all those teams.  The Colts win every single multi tie breaker.  So they are in the cat bird seat as long as they don’t lose out or end up in a head to head tie breaker with the Ravens.

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Colts1324 Team Captain

Colts1324

Posted
Posted
6 hours ago, Wentzszn said:

Thing with Bengals is they can run the ball well and actually play pretty physical. I agree I would not want to play them in that first WC game. I would take anyone except NE, KC, or Bengals.

I'm not worried about NE. I am worried about KC & LAC in the playoffs & it's not likely we would play either during the wild card round. I think we end up playing t during the wild card round. Then, IMO, we will play NE/Buf during the divisional round
 

We have a legit shot at getting a home playoff game as a 5 seed under this scenario. I think the Chargers beat the Bengals & the Bills/NE game could go either way. 
 

 

1.) KC

2.) NE/Buf

3.) Bengals

4.) Titans

5.) Colts

6.) Chargers

7.) Bills/NE


 

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chad72 Ring of Honor

chad72

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2 hours ago, JediXMan said:

 

 

 

If that does not say MVP with our all star receiving cast (#sarcasm), I don't know what will.

 

252 yards in 3 games and he breaks the all time NFL single season rushing record of Erick Dickerson of 2105 rushing yards in a season. We need to get him that.

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