The Myth of Separation and Colts Pass Catchers

[EastStreet]

Was chatting with a bud from Indy last night about WR strategy/needs, debated a few things, which led us to do a bit of research. One of the hot button topics was on pass catcher separation in general, and the opinion of some that our WRs and TEs lack the ability to separate. Below are some stats that illustrate what the top 10 WRs and top 5 TEs look like, and then the same data on Indy pass catchers for comparison. Data is from advanced stats sites. We were pretty surprised at what we found.

Myth #1 - You have to have great separation to be a great pass catcher! 

False - as you'll see by looking at the top 10 WRs and top 5 TEs, separation doesn't appear to be much of a factor, especially with WRs. Only one of the top 10 WRs (YPG) is inside the top 40 in separation. 9 of the 10 are ranked 57th to 93rd. Of the top 5 TEs, only one is inside the top 10. Three are outside of the top 20. 

Myth #2 - Our WRs and TEs stink at getting separation!

False - TY, Rogers, and Johnson had better separation than 9 of the top 10 YPG WRs. Parris better than 7. Pascal better than 3. All 3 of our TEs had significantly better separation than all 5 of the leading YPG TEs. 

Myth #3 -  TY isn't getting separation like he did last year, that's why his YPG regressed! 

False - TY actually improved his separation rank from 100th to 52nd in 2019, yet still regress in his YPG and AVG. 

 

What does all this mean?

You can decide what it means. At minimum, it's hard to blame our WR and TE separation for the lack of production and individual YPG and AVG regression.... And all 3 of our TEs are top 5 in separation rank.  What are your thoughts?

 

Top 10 WRs (Ranked by Total Yards)
Name / Team / Separation Yards (Separation Rank)
1. Michael Thomas NO: 1.36 (#75)
2. Julio Jones ATL: 1.31 (#85)
3. Chris Godwin TB: 1.48 (#57Tie)
4. DeVante Parker MIA: 1.24 (#90)
5. Kennan Allen LAC: 1.48 (#57T)
6. Kenny Goladay DET: 1.22 (#93)
7. Amari Cooper DAL: 1.61 (#38)
8. DJ Moore CAR: 1.43 (#66)
9. Jarvis Landrey CLE: 1.42 (#67)
10. DeAndre Hopkins HOU: 1.39 (#72)
-----------INDY WRs--------------------------
TY HIlton: 1.50 (#52 up from #100 last year)
Parris Campbell: 1.44 (#65)
Zach Pascal: 1.35 (#76)
Chester Rogers: 1.98 (not ranked due to low targets, but would be top 10ish)
Marcus Johnson: 1.64 (not ranked due to low targets, but would be 30ish)

 

Top 5 TEs (Ranked Total Yards)
Name / Team / Separation Yards (Separation Rank)
1. Travis Kelce KC: 1.48 (#21T)
2. Darren Waller OAK: 1.48 (#21T)
3. George Kittle SF: 1.67 (#14)
4. Zach Ertz PHI: 1.41 (#26)
5. Mark Andrews BAL: 1.83 (#9)
-----------INDY TEs-----------------------------
Eric Ebron: 2.00 (#3)
Jack Doyle: 1.90 (#4)
Mo Alie-Cox: 1.91 (not ranked due to low targets, but would rank #3.5 lol)

 

Note: Separation is measured at the time the ball arrives.

[DougDew]

How is separation defined?  By yards or by timing?  A WR only needs it for a split second, where by chemistry with the QB can put the ball right there at the point the WR gets separation.  Getting more yards of separation is not needed, and is so difficult as to make it unreliable to expect.

 

What can create separation is the quality of other players on the field, like a CB or LB looking into the backfield to account for a great RB, or a S having to be sure a great threat WR isn't going deep.

 

At this point, I'd say the data is at a relatively shallow level to draw any conclusions, and we need to get about 3 or 4 more layers deep for it to say a lot.

[throwing BBZ]

  

    The Most important thing is a QB that is highly accurate and gets the ball there at the optimum time.
  

[EastStreet]

7 minutes ago, DougDew said:

How is separation defined?  By yards or by timing?  A WR only needs it for a split second, where by chemistry with the QB can put the ball right there at the point the WR gets separation.  Getting more yards of separation is not needed, and is so difficult as to make it unreliable to expect.

 

What can create separation is the quality of other players on the field, like a CB or LB looking into the backfield to account for a great RB, or a S having to be sure a great threat WR isn't going deep.

 

At this point, I'd say the data is at a relatively shallow level to draw any conclusions, and we need to get about 3 or 4 more layers deep for it to say a lot.

To the first.... it's listed in the OP

 

To the second.... lol... The data is simple. The only points made were pretty straight forward. Point 1, separation value overall is inflated when looking at the top producers.... 2, our pass catchers have as good or better separation than the top producers in the league... 3... TY's separation actually improved this year and not the root cause of his regression...

 

you can draw those conclusions without going 3 or 4 levels deep... but please feel free to go deeper and answer the mysteries...

 

 

[EastStreet]

13 minutes ago, throwing BBZ said:

  

    The Most important thing is a QB that is highly accurate and gets the ball there at the optimum time.
  

[richard pallo]

One conclusion you might make is that the top WRs don't necessarily need separation to be highly successful.  They can catch the ball at a high rate even with being highly contested and in tight coverage.  That's what makes them great.  Getting separation is an extra advantage.  Our receivers seem to be gaining separation.   So why are their stats not better?  Are they below average at catching the ball?  A QB missing the throw is one thing.  But if you are able to gain separation and the ball is there and you don't make the catch then what is the conclusion?  Probably that we need better receivers that can actually catch the ball. 

[throwing BBZ]

5 minutes ago, richard pallo said:

One conclusion you might make is that the top WRs don't necessarily need separation to be highly successful.  They can catch the ball at a high rate even with being highly contested and in tight coverage.  That's what makes them great.  Getting separation is an extra advantage.  Our receivers seem to be gaining separation.   So why are their stats not better?  Are they below average at catching the ball?  A QB missing the throw is one thing.  But if you are able to gain separation and the ball is there and you don't make the catch then what is the conclusion?  Probably that we need better receivers that can actually catch the ball. 

 

  I watched our QB last season, and he was not highly accurate nor was he very good at getting the ball there on time. And his passes were often not thrown with good touch.
 I will leave it to the coaches to figure out whether our receivers are up to snuff.
And Reich was very excited about his WR's and TE's going into last season.

[EastStreet]

3 minutes ago, richard pallo said:

One conclusion you might make is that the top WRs don't necessarily need separation to be highly successful.  They can catch the ball at a high rate even with being highly contested and in tight coverage.  That's what makes them great.  Getting separation is an extra advantage.  Our receivers seem to be gaining separation.   So why are their stats not better?  Are they below average at catching the ball?  A QB missing the throw is one thing.  But if you are able to gain separation and the ball is there and you don't make the catch then what is the conclusion?  Probably that we need better receivers that can actually catch the ball. 

Guessing because JB's accuracy rating is 29th in the league. He's a 6.8 which means some range of catchable but sub optimal. 

 

Also, if you look at most of the top 10 WRs and TEs, and consider who their QB is, it's probably a more logical conclusion that they are simply getting better passes thrown to them.

 

 

[EastStreet]

Just now, throwing BBZ said:

 

  I watched our QB last season, and he was not highly accurate nor was he very good at getting the ball there on time. And his passes were often not thrown with good touch.
 I will leave it to the coaches to figure out whether our receivers are up to snuff.
And Reich was very excited about his WR's and TE's going into last season.

What we do know, is that the same WRs had better stats (AVG, YPG) in 2018... 

[EastStreet]

11 minutes ago, richard pallo said:

One conclusion you might make is that the top WRs don't necessarily need separation to be highly successful.  They can catch the ball at a high rate even with being highly contested and in tight coverage.  That's what makes them great.  Getting separation is an extra advantage.  Our receivers seem to be gaining separation.   So why are their stats not better?  Are they below average at catching the ball?  A QB missing the throw is one thing.  But if you are able to gain separation and the ball is there and you don't make the catch then what is the conclusion?  Probably that we need better receivers that can actually catch the ball. 

Our pass catchers were ranked 10th in the league in separation, and 14th in the league for drops (14th least, so slightly above the average or median). And as I said, JB was ranked 29th in accuracy. Most of the stats (simple and advanced) point in the same direction.

[richard pallo]

11 minutes ago, EastStreet said:

Our pass catchers were ranked 10th in the league in separation, and 14th in the league for drops (14th least, so slightly above the average or median). And as I said, JB was ranked 29th in accuracy. Most of the stats (simple and advanced) point in the same direction.

Bottom line we know we need a better QB which is why we will sign one in FA and we need better receivers which is why we will sign one in FA and draft one as well. 

[2006Coltsbestever]

8 minutes ago, EastStreet said:

Our pass catchers were ranked 10th in the league in separation, and 14th in the league for drops (14th least, so slightly above the average or median). And as I said, JB was ranked 29th in accuracy. Most of the stats (simple and advanced) point in the same direction.

If we sign Rivers we should have a fun year and probably will be something like 10-6. It should help our pass catchers. He will definitely be an upgrade over JB. You know I like JB but realistically I even know we need an upgrade to get where we need to be. I don't think JB is bad but he isn't a franchise QB either. I am about winning the SB but I am always happy when we just make the playoffs. Making the playoffs is hard to do. We just took that for granted for years because we had Peyton and Luck.

[DougDew]

37 minutes ago, EastStreet said:

To the first.... it's listed in the OP

 

To the second.... lol... The data is simple. The only points made were pretty straight forward. Point 1, separation value overall is inflated when looking at the top producers.... 2, our pass catchers have as good or better separation than the top producers in the league... 3... TY's separation actually improved this year and not the root cause of his regression...

 

you can draw those conclusions without going 3 or 4 levels deep... but please feel free to go deeper and answer the mysteries...

 

 

 

Separation or separation value, if calculated by yards alone, tells us very little about WRs, IMO.  Its the proper degree of separation at the proper time of the route is what matters for an offense to run properly. 

 

Unless you're KC or LSU and scrap that concept and just wait for your QB to run around and hit the receiver the DB forgot about after the route was ran.

 

But JB was not accurate when he threw the ball to a wide open receiver, if we are looking at it from a QB view.

  

[WoolMagnet]

I’ve been hearing that Global warming is a myth as well.

 

The internet knows EVERYTHING.

[EastStreet]

15 minutes ago, 2006Coltsbestever said:

If we sign Rivers we should have a fun year and probably will be something like 10-6. It should help our pass catchers. He will definitely be an upgrade over JB. You know I like JB but realistically I even know we need an upgrade to get where we need to be. I don't think JB is bad but he isn't a franchise QB either. I am about winning the SB but I am always happy when we just make the playoffs. Making the playoffs is hard to do. We just took that for granted for years because we had Peyton and Luck.

I think Rivers would come in with a chip on shoulder, happy to get out from behind his 29th ranked OL, and do very well in Reich's system. I'd bet his close to 30/10. If we just do that and add a legit 3T, I could see 12Ws.

[EastStreet]

15 minutes ago, WoolMagnet said:

I’ve been hearing that Global warming is a myth as well.

 

The internet knows EVERYTHING.

Not a myth. It's real. But the extent is where it turns into myth and fantasy. On one side, there's no problem at all. On the other, the world ended at least 10 times already. 

[TimetobringDfence!]

1 hour ago, richard pallo said:

One conclusion you might make is that the top WRs don't necessarily need separation to be highly successful.  They can catch the ball at a high rate even with being highly contested and in tight coverage.  That's what makes them great.  Getting separation is an extra advantage.  Our receivers seem to be gaining separation.   So why are their stats not better?  Are they below average at catching the ball?  A QB missing the throw is one thing.  But if you are able to gain separation and the ball is there and you don't make the catch then what is the conclusion?  Probably that we need better receivers that can actually catch the ball. 

No we need a better QB throwing it...

[LockeDown]

Brady to Edelman Is an example Where separation is part of their success. The only successful contested throws I saw from him were to Gronk who caught everything. 

[Indeee]

3 hours ago, EastStreet said:

Was chatting with a bud from Indy last night about WR strategy/needs, debated a few things, which led us to do a bit of research. One of the hot button topics was on pass catcher separation in general, and the opinion of some that our WRs and TEs lack the ability to separate. Below are some stats that illustrate what the top 10 WRs and top 5 TEs look like, and then the same data on Indy pass catchers for comparison. Data is from advanced stats sites. We were pretty surprised at what we found.

Myth #1 - You have to have great separation to be a great pass catcher! 

False - as you'll see by looking at the top 10 WRs and top 5 TEs, separation doesn't appear to be much of a factor, especially with WRs. Only one of the top 10 WRs (YPG) is inside the top 40 in separation. 9 of the 10 are ranked 57th to 93rd. Of the top 5 TEs, only one is inside the top 10. Three are outside of the top 20. 

Myth #2 - Our WRs and TEs stink at getting separation!

False - TY, Rogers, and Johnson had better separation than 9 of the top 10 YPG WRs. Parris better than 7. Pascal better than 3. All 3 of our TEs had significantly better separation than all 5 of the leading YPG TEs. 

Myth #3 -  TY isn't getting separation like he did last year, that's why his YPG regressed! 

False - TY actually improved his separation rank from 100th to 52nd in 2019, yet still regress in his YPG and AVG. 

 

What does all this mean?

You can decide what it means. At minimum, it's hard to blame our WR and TE separation for the lack of production and individual YPG and AVG regression.... And all 3 of our TEs are top 5 in separation rank.  What are your thoughts?

 

Top 10 WRs (Ranked by Total Yards)
Name / Team / Separation Yards (Separation Rank)
1. Michael Thomas NO: 1.36 (#75)
2. Julio Jones ATL: 1.31 (#85)
3. Chris Godwin TB: 1.48 (#57Tie)
4. DeVante Parker MIA: 1.24 (#90)
5. Kennan Allen LAC: 1.48 (#57T)
6. Kenny Goladay DET: 1.22 (#93)
7. Amari Cooper DAL: 1.61 (#38)
8. DJ Moore CAR: 1.43 (#66)
9. Jarvis Landrey CLE: 1.42 (#67)
10. DeAndre Hopkins HOU: 1.39 (#72)
-----------INDY WRs--------------------------
TY HIlton: 1.50 (#52 up from #100 last year)
Parris Campbell: 1.44 (#65)
Zach Pascal: 1.35 (#76)
Chester Rogers: 1.98 (not ranked due to low targets, but would be top 10ish)
Marcus Johnson: 1.64 (not ranked due to low targets, but would be 30ish)

 

Top 5 TEs (Ranked Total Yards)
Name / Team / Separation Yards (Separation Rank)
1. Travis Kelce KC: 1.48 (#21T)
2. Darren Waller OAK: 1.48 (#21T)
3. George Kittle SF: 1.67 (#14)
4. Zach Ertz PHI: 1.41 (#26)
5. Mark Andrews BAL: 1.83 (#9)
-----------INDY TEs-----------------------------
Eric Ebron: 2.00 (#3)
Jack Doyle: 1.90 (#4)
Mo Alie-Cox: 1.91 (not ranked due to low targets, but would rank #3.5 lol)

 

Note: Separation is measured at the time the ball arrives.

The greatest myth you neglected to address is the myth that we actually have any good pass catchers. 

[chad72]

52 minutes ago, LockeDown said:

Brady to Edelman Is an example Where separation is part of their success. The only successful contested throws I saw from him were to Gronk who caught everything. 

 

True. When there is more separation, there is YAC with Edelman. When there is a tad separation, it gets placed on the right shoulder of the WR or leading the WR leading to a completion and moving of downs typically for the Patriots.

 

When there is good separation, by not leading the WR, with Jacoby, there is just a completion, no YAC. When there is a tad separation, forget about it, Jacoby doesn't throw it or does not hit the WR in stride. 

 

I know, it is a lofty comparison to compare Brady to Jacoby but just conceptually, the QB accounts for so much more with the same levels of separation and hands, if the QB is on target.

[2006Coltsbestever]

15 minutes ago, Indeee said:

The greatest myth you neglected to address is the myth that we actually have any good pass catchers. 

That is what some overlook. TY Hilton is good, not very good or great but he is good and a respectable #1. Jack Doyle is above average and a nice security blanket. Outside of Indiana residents, I bet most people couldn't even name any other pass catcher we have. Probably Ebron but he is leaving so mentioning him is a moot point.

[chad72]

20 minutes ago, 2006Coltsbestever said:

That is what some overlook. TY Hilton is good, not very good or great but he is good and a respectable #1. Jack Doyle is above average and a nice security blanket. Outside of Indiana residents, I bet most people couldn't even name any other pass catcher we have. Probably Ebron but he is leaving so mentioning him is a moot point.

 

If I am not mistaken, TY's numbers are better than Amari Cooper's numbers for their careers in yards per reception, yards per game and receptions per game. 

 

TY is a very good WR, not just a good WR. He is criminally underrated by Colts fans. He is not a big bodied possession guy or a quickness based slot guy or a jump ball guy, all of whom get fans enamored more because of the highlight plays. 

 

https://nflcomparisons.com/amari-cooper-vs-t-y-hilton-comparison/

 

Other than his early years with Wayne, he never had a good chain mover to go along with him when coverage rolled towards him. After Dallas Clark, we had Fleener, Allen and Ebron, all average receiving TEs who had their moments but our TE position needs some receiving talent infused on top of the #2 WR position as well. 

[DougDew]

2 hours ago, TimetobringDfence! said:

No we need a better QB throwing it...

I gathered this was the point.  Its not really an analysis of WRs, but more like data chosen for presenting one side of a QB debate.

 

Separation yards among WRs could be created by a team with a good running game where the DBs have to stay closer to the LOS, compared to a team that actually has good receivers.

 

Or it could be the result of a great offensive scheme with average receivers compared to an average offensive scheme with great receivers.

 

Either way, you still need a QB that can throw the ball accurately to the WRs when they are open.  That could be Nick Foles or even Colt McCoy, but not JB.

 

 

[ÅÐØNϧ 1]

4 hours ago, EastStreet said:

Was chatting with a bud from Indy last night about WR strategy/needs, debated a few things, which led us to do a bit of research. One of the hot button topics was on pass catcher separation in general, and the opinion of some that our WRs and TEs lack the ability to separate. Below are some stats that illustrate what the top 10 WRs and top 5 TEs look like, and then the same data on Indy pass catchers for comparison. Data is from advanced stats sites. We were pretty surprised at what we found.

Myth #1 - You have to have great separation to be a great pass catcher! 

False - as you'll see by looking at the top 10 WRs and top 5 TEs, separation doesn't appear to be much of a factor, especially with WRs. Only one of the top 10 WRs (YPG) is inside the top 40 in separation. 9 of the 10 are ranked 57th to 93rd. Of the top 5 TEs, only one is inside the top 10. Three are outside of the top 20. 

Myth #2 - Our WRs and TEs stink at getting separation!

False - TY, Rogers, and Johnson had better separation than 9 of the top 10 YPG WRs. Parris better than 7. Pascal better than 3. All 3 of our TEs had significantly better separation than all 5 of the leading YPG TEs. 

Myth #3 -  TY isn't getting separation like he did last year, that's why his YPG regressed! 

False - TY actually improved his separation rank from 100th to 52nd in 2019, yet still regress in his YPG and AVG. 

 

What does all this mean?

You can decide what it means. At minimum, it's hard to blame our WR and TE separation for the lack of production and individual YPG and AVG regression.... And all 3 of our TEs are top 5 in separation rank.  What are your thoughts?

 

Top 10 WRs (Ranked by Total Yards)
Name / Team / Separation Yards (Separation Rank)
1. Michael Thomas NO: 1.36 (#75)
2. Julio Jones ATL: 1.31 (#85)
3. Chris Godwin TB: 1.48 (#57Tie)
4. DeVante Parker MIA: 1.24 (#90)
5. Kennan Allen LAC: 1.48 (#57T)
6. Kenny Goladay DET: 1.22 (#93)
7. Amari Cooper DAL: 1.61 (#38)
8. DJ Moore CAR: 1.43 (#66)
9. Jarvis Landrey CLE: 1.42 (#67)
10. DeAndre Hopkins HOU: 1.39 (#72)
-----------INDY WRs--------------------------
TY HIlton: 1.50 (#52 up from #100 last year)
Parris Campbell: 1.44 (#65)
Zach Pascal: 1.35 (#76)
Chester Rogers: 1.98 (not ranked due to low targets, but would be top 10ish)
Marcus Johnson: 1.64 (not ranked due to low targets, but would be 30ish)

 

Top 5 TEs (Ranked Total Yards)
Name / Team / Separation Yards (Separation Rank)
1. Travis Kelce KC: 1.48 (#21T)
2. Darren Waller OAK: 1.48 (#21T)
3. George Kittle SF: 1.67 (#14)
4. Zach Ertz PHI: 1.41 (#26)
5. Mark Andrews BAL: 1.83 (#9)
-----------INDY TEs-----------------------------
Eric Ebron: 2.00 (#3)
Jack Doyle: 1.90 (#4)
Mo Alie-Cox: 1.91 (not ranked due to low targets, but would rank #3.5 lol)

 

Note: Separation is measured at the time the ball arrives.

SEPARATION howabout just catch the damn ball way to many dropped passes by Colts receivers as I recall making JB look even worse ..

[2006Coltsbestever]

36 minutes ago, chad72 said:

 

If I am not mistaken, TY's numbers are better than Amari Cooper's numbers for their careers in yards per reception, yards per game and receptions per game. 

 

TY is a very good WR, not just a good WR. He is criminally underrated by Colts fans. He is not a big bodied possession guy or a quickness based slot guy or a jump ball guy, all of whom get fans enamored more because of the highlight plays. 

 

https://nflcomparisons.com/amari-cooper-vs-t-y-hilton-comparison/

 

Other than his early years with Wayne, he never had a good chain mover to go along with him when coverage rolled towards him. After Dallas Clark, we had Fleener, Allen and Ebron, all average receiving TEs who had their moments but our TE position needs some receiving talent infused on top of the #2 WR position as well. 

That is fair, putting him in the very good category isn't far fetched if you have him there. I love TY and saying he is good is a compliment IMO. I also think he is a good #1 to have.  

[Colt.45]

Means the QB sucks. That's the takeaway.

[Lucky Colts Fan]

4 hours ago, richard pallo said:

Bottom line we know we need a better QB which is why we will sign one in FA and we need better receivers which is why we will sign one in FA and draft one as well. 

 

I know it's semantics, but we need better play from our QBs and receivers.  That doesn't necessarily mean we need different QBs and receivers.

 

I'm not sure what word I wanna use to describe the disconnect between our QB and receivers last year.  The first word that comes to mind is "trust", as in a trust-issue with Brissett either not trusting his guys to make contested catches, or not trusting what he's seeing when trying to read the defense.

 

But it might be more of a risk-averse thing with Brissett.  He's just not as willing to make riskier throws where his receivers would have to make a contested catch.  When you look at the QBs for those top-10 receivers on the list from @EastStreet, there's kind of a theme:  QBs willing to make riskier throws because they trust their receiver to make the catch, regardless of separation.  Brees, Mahomes, Rivers, Stafford, Mayfield, and even Fitzmagic all have a little gunslinger in 'em.

 

I know Colts fans probably don't wanna hear Brissett and gunslinger in the same sentence, but if he made more risky throws, trusting his receivers to make the catch, we might be pleasantly surprised.

[LockeDown]

As you can see with this QB draft and most, not all QBs are accurate. When I played in HS, we had 2 guys with the strongest arms. One was a great leader and runner but his passing never was accurate. The other ended up not playing football because his Dad wanted him to get a baseball scholarship as a pitcher and didn’t want him injured. . He was extremely accurate and would have made a great QB. He did get a pitching scholarship.

[fahlman]

4 hours ago, DougDew said:

Separation or separation value, if calculated by yards alone, tells us very little about WRs, IMO.  Its the proper degree of separation at the proper time of the route is what matters for an offense to run properly. 

 

6 hours ago, EastStreet said:

Note: Separation is measured at the time the ball arrives.

Can't get any more proper time than that.

[Douzer]

The stats tell me JB is reluctant to let it fly unless his receivers have earned above average separation. It's consistent with what I've observed watching him play, and is in line with his lower INT stats. While not turning it over is extremely admirable, he has to be able to consistently hit tighter windows to be a legit #1.

[funktacious2]

This is why I want the Colts to get one of the quicker 6-2 or taller guys. When is the last time we had a big, physical playmaker? I won't be upset if we opt to just bring back Funchess and draft a different profile WR, but we need a taller, quick WR and an upgrade at receiving TE.

 

Denzel Mims and Harrison Bryant please!

[hoosierhawk]

4 hours ago, Lucky Colts Fan said:

 

 

 

I'm not sure what word I wanna use to describe the disconnect between our QB and receivers last year.  The first word that comes to mind is "trust", as in a trust-issue with Brissett either not trusting his guys to make contested catches, or not trusting what he's seeing when trying to read the defenses.

Trust: You just may have hit on something that JB does not have and seems to have never had and that is Trust. It is something he has lacked since college if you read his scouting report.

[DougDew]

15 hours ago, fahlman said:

 

Can't get any more proper time than that.

You could say that about Tyreek Hill getting the ball with nobody around him because the play broke down. 10 yard separation when the ball arrived.

 

What you need is the half step openness at the proper time in the pattern, that's not the same thing as when the ball arrives.

[DougDew]

If the stats show that our average WRs are getting open at the time the QB expects them to be and not after the play broke down, then that verify's the hire of Frank Reich and the firing of Chud.  Its why we hired Reich and why we tried to hire McDaniels.

 

To make a good offense out of those stats we need two more things:

 

 A Tyler Lockett or AJ Brown who can do something with that ball after getting it with separation....and if stats show that Rogers and Pascal got good YAC, we can assume Lockett or Brown would have gotten great YAC or more  TDs. (Ballard knows this, its why he drafted Campbell)

 

A QB who can accurately deliver the ball in stride so Lockett can score a TD with that much separation.  An aware and accurate game manager, like Foles, would be a significant upgrade over an unaware and inaccurate game manager like JB. 

 

It shows that investing lots of capital for a gunslinger would be an overbuy.

[chad72]

10 hours ago, hoosierhawk said:

Trust: You just may have hit on something that JB does not have and seems to have never had and that is Trust. It is something he has lacked since college if you read his scouting report.

 

Like Steve Miller said, " go on, take the money and run..."  

 

JB made hay while the sun shone, got his $30 mil., thanks to the Colts being cornered because of Luck's retirement. Not his fault, I would have done the same too if I were in his position, despite my limitations. At least he brings a decent floor, and is not like the Jets backup QBs when Darnold was out.

[EastStreet]

19 hours ago, Indeee said:

The greatest myth you neglected to address is the myth that we actually have any good pass catchers. 

We were top 10 in passing O in 2018 with most of the same guys. 

Almost everyone regressed with the exception of Pascal.

So I'd say it's a lot more passer than catcher.

[EastStreet]

18 hours ago, ÅÐØNϧ 1 said:

SEPARATION howabout just catch the damn ball way to many dropped passes by Colts receivers as I recall making JB look even worse ..

Rank wise, we were very average (14th best) in drops in 2019, so blaming drops for anything is a non starter. We had 10 more drops in 2018, so Andrew had it a lot worse.

[EastStreet]

17 hours ago, Lucky Colts Fan said:

 

I know it's semantics, but we need better play from our QBs and receivers.  That doesn't necessarily mean we need different QBs and receivers.

 

I'm not sure what word I wanna use to describe the disconnect between our QB and receivers last year.  The first word that comes to mind is "trust", as in a trust-issue with Brissett either not trusting his guys to make contested catches, or not trusting what he's seeing when trying to read the defense.

 

But it might be more of a risk-averse thing with Brissett.  He's just not as willing to make riskier throws where his receivers would have to make a contested catch.  When you look at the QBs for those top-10 receivers on the list from @EastStreet, there's kind of a theme:  QBs willing to make riskier throws because they trust their receiver to make the catch, regardless of separation.  Brees, Mahomes, Rivers, Stafford, Mayfield, and even Fitzmagic all have a little gunslinger in 'em.

 

I know Colts fans probably don't wanna hear Brissett and gunslinger in the same sentence, but if he made more risky throws, trusting his receivers to make the catch, we might be pleasantly surprised.

I simply think there are likely deeper issues, and it's more of a ceiling thing with JB. He's just never been good at reads/progressions/anticipation going back to college. Seems like a vision and/or processing deficiency. 

[DougDew]

Its painting into a corner a bit if we simply compare passing stats from 2018 to 2019 to judge the QB.  Despite better stats from Luck with essentially the same receivers, Ballard saw a need to upgrade the position by adding TWO to that group.  Campbell and Funchess.  Neither of whom played, but the decision to add two receivers after 2018 and with Luck still intending to play is revealing, IMO. 

[EastStreet]

20 hours ago, LockeDown said:

Brady to Edelman Is an example Where separation is part of their success. The only successful contested throws I saw from him were to Gronk who caught everything. 

Edelman doesn't get elite separation, but has does get elite throws (placement). Brady is one of the best at anticipating and throwing guys open.