Missed kicks 15 to 1

[coltsorioles]

Heading into the final game the Colts have missed 15 kicks and I believe their opponents have missed 1. Vinietari missed 6 extra points and 8 field goals. Chase missed 1.  Early on the titans missed a field goal and that's it if I recall correctly.  In the 100 years of the nfl that 15 to 1 ratio has never been close.  Just think if he makes half of his misses we are looking at 11-5  at worse.  My point is this team is not that bad. Aside from the saints game they could have won every game.  Imagine the potential this team had in early August before Andrew Luck retired and the lost their top 4 wr's  for most of the season.   15 to 1. If anyone can look up the biggest difference in missed kicks I would be surprised if another team was even at 5 to 1

[John Hammonds]

Game 1 at Chargers - L 30-24 - missed 2 FG and 1 XP (7 pts) - convert to W

Game 2 vs Titans - L 19-17 - missed 2 XP (2 pts) - convert to Tie

Game 4 vs Raiders - L 31-24 - missed 1 FG (3 pts) - remains a L (although I think there were other circumstances)

Game 8 vs Broncos - L 15-13 - missed 1 FG and 1 XP (4 pts) - convert to W

Game 9 at Steelers - L 26-24 - missed 1 FG and 1 XP (4 pts) - convert to W

Game 10 vs Dolphins - L 16-12 - missed 1 XP - remains a L

Game 13 at Titans - L 31-17 - missed 3 FG, including 1 return for TD (net 13 pts) - remains a loss

 

11-5 (if we win vs JAX)

[2006Coltsbestever]

The people that have their minds made up that JB sucks doesn't want to hear all this but had we been healthier and our kicking game been good, we would've been 10-6 this year with JB IMO. With Luck 13-3.

[CantBeStopped]

Problem with this theory is most those games shouldn't have even been close. With a better QB they wouldn't have been. And by the way we beat Denver and Tennessee the first time. You have those down as losses

[bertjones7]

37 minutes ago, John Hammonds said:

Game 1 at Chargers - L 30-24 - missed 2 FG and 1 XP (7 pts) - convert to W

Game 2 vs Titans - L 19-17 - missed 2 XP (2 pts) - convert to Tie

Game 4 vs Raiders - L 31-24 - missed 1 FG (3 pts) - remains a L (although I think there were other circumstances)

Game 8 vs Broncos - L 15-13 - missed 1 FG and 1 XP (4 pts) - convert to W

Game 9 at Steelers - L 26-24 - missed 1 FG and 1 XP (4 pts) - convert to W

Game 10 vs Dolphins - L 16-12 - missed 1 XP - remains a L

Game 13 at Titans - L 31-17 - missed 3 FG, including 1 return for TD (net 13 pts) - remains a loss

 

11-5 (if we win vs JAX)

Good summary....just want to add the the missed XP in the Dolphins game forced the Colts to go for a TD instead of a chip shot FG to tie the game and force OT.

[TheMiz]

31 minutes ago, 2006Coltsbestever said:

The people that have their minds made up that JB sucks doesn't want to hear all this but had we been healthier and our kicking game been good, we would've been 10-6 this year with JB IMO. With Luck 13-3.

Have you rewatched any of the earlier games? It was still evident that JB was missing wide open receivers, and just not seeing other wide open guys. The team was winning despite JB not because of him. It became even more apparent when teams started to really stack the box and key in on the run game, forcing Brissett to attempt to beat them through the air, which his weaknesses became even more apparent. 

The fact that they would be 10-6 had it not been for missed kicks doesn't negate the fact that JB isn't very good.

[runthepost]

Oakland game we couldn’t move the ball nor stop the Raiders 

[2006Coltsbestever]

4 minutes ago, TheMiz said:

Have you rewatched any of the earlier games? It was still evident that JB was missing wide open receivers, and just not seeing other wide open guys. The team was winning despite JB not because of him. It became even more apparent when teams started to really stack the box and key in on the run game, forcing Brissett to attempt to beat them through the air, which his weaknesses became even more apparent. 

The fact that they would be 10-6 had it not been for missed kicks doesn't negate the fact that JB isn't very good.

I will say it until the day I die, all that matters is wins and losses when everyone looks at the final result of a season. We could have Homer Simpson at QB but if we go 11-5 nobody would care because we are winning.

 

 

[Restinpeacesweetchloe]

20 minutes ago, TheMiz said:

Have you rewatched any of the earlier games? It was still evident that JB was missing wide open receivers, and just not seeing other wide open guys. The team was winning despite JB not because of him. It became even more apparent when teams started to really stack the box and key in on the run game, forcing Brissett to attempt to beat them through the air, which his weaknesses became even more apparent. 

The fact that they would be 10-6 had it not been for missed kicks doesn't negate the fact that JB isn't very good.

Every QB even the elite ones miss wide open guys. The difference is the very good ones make enough big plays during the game so those few plays aren’t noticeable. That is what is missing with Jacoby. Not the missing of open guys.

[Shepman]

1 hour ago, John Hammonds said:

Game 1 at Chargers - L 30-24 - missed 2 FG and 1 XP (7 pts) - convert to W

Game 2 vs Titans - L 19-17 - missed 2 XP (2 pts) - convert to Tie

Game 4 vs Raiders - L 31-24 - missed 1 FG (3 pts) - remains a L (although I think there were other circumstances)

Game 8 vs Broncos - L 15-13 - missed 1 FG and 1 XP (4 pts) - convert to W

Game 9 at Steelers - L 26-24 - missed 1 FG and 1 XP (4 pts) - convert to W

Game 10 vs Dolphins - L 16-12 - missed 1 XP - remains a L

Game 13 at Titans - L 31-17 - missed 3 FG, including 1 return for TD (net 13 pts) - remains a loss

 

11-5 (if we win vs JAX)

We won the Broncos game btw with a long field goal by Vinny

[TheMiz]

42 minutes ago, 2006Coltsbestever said:

I will say it until the day I die, all that matters is wins and losses when everyone looks at the final result of a season. We could have Homer Simpson at QB but if we go 11-5 nobody would care because we are winning.

 

 

Improved record does not mean we need to ignore obvious weaknesses on the team. 

[Myles]

Isn't this all just "what-ifs"?    Had our kicker kicked better.   Had our WR's been healthy.  

That's not usually how the NFL works.   The teams we played also had injuries to key players.  They get to play some "what-ifs" too, right?  

I understand that this has been a tough season for many Colts players.   In a way it was good for Reich and Ballard (and fans) to see what we have at the QB position.  I think we are mostly in agreement that Hoyer is not the guy to lead this team in the future.   Many feel the same about Brissett.  With a good team, he can keep each game close, but he's unlikely to play in a way that he carries the team despite obstacles.  

I'm fairly confident he will be the starter next season and I'll be rooting for him to succeed.  I'm not confident he'll lead us beyond 7-10 wins because in close games, odds are you will end up around .500.  

[2006Coltsbestever]

6 minutes ago, Myles said:

Isn't this all just "what-ifs"?    Had our kicker kicked better.   Had our WR's been healthy.  

That's not usually how the NFL works.   The teams we played also had injuries to key players.  They get to play some "what-ifs" too, right?  

I understand that this has been a tough season for many Colts players.   In a way it was good for Reich and Ballard (and fans) to see what we have at the QB position.  I think we are mostly in agreement that Hoyer is not the guy to lead this team in the future.   Many feel the same about Brissett.  With a good team, he can keep each game close, but he's unlikely to play in a way that he carries the team despite obstacles.  

I'm fairly confident he will be the starter next season and I'll be rooting for him to succeed.  I'm not confident he'll lead us beyond 7-10 wins because in close games, odds are you will end up around .500.  

It is really tough to predict how many wins we would have with JB next season. I do know I witnessed Matt Cassel who isn't as good as JB win 11 games one year with the Pats and 10 games with KC. 

[Myles]

17 minutes ago, 2006Coltsbestever said:

It is really tough to predict how many wins we would have with JB next season. I do know I witnessed Matt Cassel who isn't as good as JB win 11 games one year with the Pats and 10 games with KC. 

I agree it is tough to predict.   I think we can come close since JB has been pretty much the same since college.  I think he can keep most games close and his team will win around half of those games.  So we would need to be better than the opponents in other areas to try and tip the scales.  Can we have the better kicker.   Can Reich be the better coach.  I think that in most games, we will not have the better QB.   JB negates that a bit by slowing the game down.

 

Good point on Cassell.  I think he showed that the Pats were a very good team even without Brady.  I think Cassell went 10-5 in the games he started.

Kansas City had Jamaal Charles in his prime.  I don't think Cassell could have carried the team.  

[MarylandTerrapin]

2 hours ago, John Hammonds said:

Game 1 at Chargers - L 30-24 - missed 2 FG and 1 XP (7 pts) - convert to W

Game 2 vs Titans - L 19-17 - missed 2 XP (2 pts) - convert to Tie

Game 4 vs Raiders - L 31-24 - missed 1 FG (3 pts) - remains a L (although I think there were other circumstances)

Game 8 vs Broncos - L 15-13 - missed 1 FG and 1 XP (4 pts) - convert to W

Game 9 at Steelers - L 26-24 - missed 1 FG and 1 XP (4 pts) - convert to W

Game 10 vs Dolphins - L 16-12 - missed 1 XP - remains a L

Game 13 at Titans - L 31-17 - missed 3 FG, including 1 return for TD (net 13 pts) - remains a loss

 

11-5 (if we win vs JAX)

Some corrections:

 

Game 2 was a win (would have been 21-17 instead of 19-17)

 

Game 8 was a win as another posted stated (score would have been 16-13 as we would have run out the clock) - Jacoby's incredible throw to TY from the end zone would have iced the game.

 

Game 10 could have been tied 16-16 at regulation as we were in the Dolphin red zone on 4th down and would have attempted a game tying FG.  OT may or may not have resulted in a win.

 

Game 13 could have been a 26-24 Indy win as the blocked FG TD by Tenn never would have happened.  However, making both 50+ FGs in the 1st half would have been a tall order.

 

The swing games would have been Chargers, Steelers, and Titans (10-5 going into Jax or 11-4 if we beat Mia in OT).

 

Even with JB's lack of production, it looks as though we would be headed for the playoffs if Chase had been our opening day kicker. 

[2006Coltsbestever]

1 minute ago, Myles said:

I agree it is tough to predict.   I think we can come close since JB has been pretty much the same since college.  I think he can keep most games close and his team will win around half of those games.  So we would need to be better than the opponents in other areas to try and tip the scales.  Can we have the better kicker.   Can Reich be the better coach.  I think that in most games, we will not have the better QB.   JB negates that a bit by slowing the game down.

 

Good point on Cassell.  I think he showed that the Pats were a very good team even without Brady.  I think Cassell went 10-5 in the games he started.

Kansas City had Jamaal Charles in his prime.  I don't think Cassell could have carried the team.  

If Ballard doesn't go the route of drafting a QB or a WR, I could honestly see him going all defense. For depth and he probably knows JB could win more games with a dominant defense. It will be interesting to see what Ballard does in FA and the draft. Many in here may want to prepare themselves for boring ball next year but I am ok with it as long as we win. This season boring ball got us 8-8.

[Myles]

4 minutes ago, 2006Coltsbestever said:

If Ballard doesn't go the route of drafting a QB or a WR, I could honestly see him going all defense. For depth and he probably knows JB could win more games with a dominant defense. It will be interesting to see what Ballard does in FA and the draft. Many in here may want to prepare themselves for boring ball next year but I am ok with it as long as we win. This season boring ball got us 8-8.

I've always like slower defensive games.   I know I'm in the minority though.  

It's not about boring ball with me.  It's more the JB flaws that bum me out.   Missing wide open receivers because he won't take his eyes off his first target.  When you hold the ball as long as JB does, scanning the field should be obvious.  If the team improves in other areas, I think JB can lead this team to compete for a playoff spot.  He doesn't turn the ball over much.  He is pretty much the definition of a game manager.  I'm Ok with that if the team is strong enough in almost every other part of the game.  I don't think he'll improve much if any.  Good thing is we know what we got.  

 

 

[esmort]

7 minutes ago, 2006Coltsbestever said:

If Ballard doesn't go the route of drafting a QB or a WR, I could honestly see him going all defense. For depth and he probably knows JB could win more games with a dominant defense. It will be interesting to see what Ballard does in FA and the draft. Many in here may want to prepare themselves for boring ball next year but I am ok with it as long as we win. This season boring ball got us 8-8.

 

Is building a defense the level of the Ravens, Bears, Bucs SB teams that could carry a team to a SB really going to be easier than finding a franchise QB. I think we have a better chance of finding a franchise QB even if it takes a couple tries. If anything it probably gets harder each year to create that level of defense as more and more  rules for safety and to protect the QB are added. 

[esmort]

3 minutes ago, Myles said:

I've always like slower defensive games.   I know I'm in the minority though.  

It's not about boring ball with me.  It's more the JB flaws that bum me out.   Missing wide open receivers because he won't take his eyes off his first target.  When you hold the ball as long as JB does, scanning the field should be obvious.  If the team improves in other areas, I think JB can lead this team to compete for a playoff spot.  He doesn't turn the ball over much.  He is pretty much the definition of a game manager.  I'm Ok with that if the team is strong enough in almost every other part of the game.  I don't think he'll improve much if any.  Good thing is we know what we got.  

 

 

 

I have to admit I think defensive games are usually kinda boring. Especially so when they keep taking more and more of the big hits out. 

[shakedownstreet]

4 minutes ago, esmort said:

If anything it probably gets harder each year to create that level of defense as more and more  rules for safety and to protect the QB are added. 

 

Shutdown defenses don't exist anymore. Some can be quite good, but there is always a game or two or six where they get absolutely torched

[2006Coltsbestever]

3 minutes ago, esmort said:

 

Is building a defense the level of the Ravens, Bears, Bucs SB teams that could carry a team to a SB really going to be easier than finding a franchise QB. I think we have a better chance of finding a franchise QB even if it takes a couple tries. If anything it probably gets harder each year to create that level of defense as more and more  rules for safety and to protect the QB are added. 

I think both are difficult. Both times we got a franchise QB we picked #1 like with Peyton or Luck. Getting someone like a Mahomes with the 11th pick is like hitting the lottery. It can happen though.

[GoColts8818]

So is the point of the thread that the Colts had issues at kicker this year?  If so I think everyone agrees.

[esmort]

Just now, 2006Coltsbestever said:

I think both are difficult. Both times we got a franchise QB we picked #1 like with Peyton or Luck. Getting someone like a Mahomes with the 11th pick is like hitting the lottery. It can happen though.

 

It doesn't have to be Manning or Luck hall of fame level QB... That would be nice, but a Rivers, Stafford, Ryan, E. Manning level QB would work too. 

[2006Coltsbestever]

Just now, esmort said:

 

It doesn't have to be Manning or Luck hall of fame level QB... That would be nice, but a Rivers, Stafford, Ryan, E. Manning level QB would work too. 

I would agree every QB you just named have been better than JB. I would like to see what Carr could do behind our Line or even Matt Ryan.

[esmort]

2 minutes ago, 2006Coltsbestever said:

I would agree every QB you just named have been better than JB. I would like to see what Carr could do behind our Line or even Matt Ryan.

 

I don't mean in their current end of career  form, I would not want those actual players now. But, if whoever we drafted turned out to be the level of those guys in their prime I would be happy. Although I would possibly open to considering Carr if he was available depending on circumstances. 

[2006Coltsbestever]

1 minute ago, esmort said:

 

I don't mean in their current end of career  form, I would not want those actual players now. But, if whoever we drafted turned out to be the level of those guys in their prime I would be happy. Although I would possibly open to considering Carr if he was available depending on circumstances. 

I knew that is what you meant but Carr is only 28 and I think Matt Ryan would put up huge numbers for us still. Of course guys like Rivers and Eli are too old.

[Myles]

7 minutes ago, 2006Coltsbestever said:

I would agree every QB you just named have been better than JB. I would like to see what Carr could do behind our Line or even Matt Ryan.

Yeah, the great O-line we have could make an average QB have above average seasons.  Makes me like the idea of getting a QB who has had mostly mediocre seasons on a team with a bad O-line.  

[Myles]

Just now, 2006Coltsbestever said:

I knew that is what you meant but Carr is only 28 and I think Matt Ryan would put up huge numbers for us still. Of course guys like Rivers and Eli are too old.

I wouldn't mind Rivers as a 1-2 year bridge.  He would be better than Brissett, but we would still be looking for the QB of the next 5-10 years.  Matt Ryan would probably be great, but that is highly unlikely.  So is Rivers though.  Ha ha.  

[Bravo]

3 hours ago, 2006Coltsbestever said:

The people that have their minds made up that JB sucks doesn't want to hear all this but had we been healthier and our kicking game been good, we would've been 10-6 this year with JB IMO. With Luck 13-3.

 

This doesn’t need to be a JB issue but obviously it is now. Lol The fact that you posted about him in this shows you know that there is an issue at QB.

 

JB doesn’t suck. However he isn’t good either. The argument should be that it shouldn’t have even came down to these missed FG or extra points. If the Offense played better the Colts wouldn’t be in that situation. The offense was in the bottom 5 in the league in passing in most stats. THAT is an issue.

 

Kicking was obviously a problem as well. Special Teams in general was. The L’s COULD have been W’s but that’s the offenses fault for forcing the special teams to have to win them games.

 

JB the definition of a below average QB.

[indyagent17]

4 hours ago, John Hammonds said:

Game 1 at Chargers - L 30-24 - missed 2 FG and 1 XP (7 pts) - convert to W

Game 2 vs Titans - L 19-17 - missed 2 XP (2 pts) - convert to Tie

Game 4 vs Raiders - L 31-24 - missed 1 FG (3 pts) - remains a L (although I think there were other circumstances)

Game 8 vs Broncos - L 15-13 - missed 1 FG and 1 XP (4 pts) - convert to W

Game 9 at Steelers - L 26-24 - missed 1 FG and 1 XP (4 pts) - convert to W

Game 10 vs Dolphins - L 16-12 - missed 1 XP - remains a L

Game 13 at Titans - L 31-17 - missed 3 FG, including 1 return for TD (net 13 pts) - remains a loss

 

11-5 (if we win vs JAX)

We won the Broncos Game

[stitches]

There is a fundamental mistake that people make when doing those calculations. Notice that the assumption is always that a kick would be good with another kicker. Also, notice that the assumption is that another kicker will make all the kicks that Vinny did. The reality is a bit different.

 

The XP success rate for the league is 93.6%(78% for Vinny), the FG success rate for the league is 81.2%. 

 

Here are Vinny's kicks by distance:

20-29 yards 6 of 7 => league average 97%

30-39 yards 6 of 6 => league average 92%

40-49 yards 3 of 7 => league average 70%

50+ yards 2 of 5 => league average 56%

 

As you can see the biggest problem with Vinny's kicks were the long ones and the extra points. The extra points are inexcusable. And one of the 50+ yarders was a breakdown in protection(the Titans one that Vinny had no chance against). 

 

Also, it's a mistake to assume an off-the-streets FA kicker would have been average. The reality is he will more than likely be in the bottom of the league success-wise. That's why multiple teams claimed Chase McLaughlin. He was a kicker that was rostered on a team for most of the year and was obviously above the level of the off-the-street guys. 

 

So yeah... To summarize:

1. You cannot expect a random guy we could have gotten off the street to hit all the kicks Vinny missed

2. You cannot expect a random guy we could have gotten off the street to hit all the kicks Vinny hit

 

That's not to say a random guy we could have gotten off the street wouldn't have been better than Vinny(very possible he would have been better), but IMO not by a lot and probably the biggest difference would have been in the extra points, rather than the FGs where Vinny's biggest problem was exactly what you would expect a random guy off-the-street to struggle with too(the long ones). 

[coltsorioles]

Vinietari missed 14 kicks. If he makes just half of the kicks he missed the Colts are 11-5, 12-4.   Or if the Colts opponents missed 7 more kicks then it's the same result.  Kicking is the reason the Colts are not division champs this year.  If Vinietari is just average then they win minimum 11 games. 

[WoolMagnet]

3 hours ago, esmort said:

 

It doesn't have to be Manning or Luck hall of fame level QB... That would be nice, but a Rivers, Stafford, Ryan, E. Manning level QB would work too. 

And they were drafted at what picks?

yea, alot EARLIER than we will pick.

 

[stitches]

3 minutes ago, WoolMagnet said:

And they were drafted at what picks?

yea, alot EARLIER than we will pick.

 

It can also be Watson, Mahomes, Lamar level... 

[WoolMagnet]

23 minutes ago, coltsorioles said:

Vinietari missed 14 kicks. If he makes just half of the kicks he missed the Colts are 11-5, 12-4.   Or if the Colts opponents missed 7 more kicks then it's the same result.  Kicking is the reason the Colts are not division champs this year.  If Vinietari is just average then they win minimum 11 games. 

This is my opinion too.

We had issues in other areas, but in my view, Vinny performed as poorly as ANY other player. Probably worse than any player.

 

Brissett, the D, etc could gave done better, sure, but those kicks?

Inexcusable.  I put equal blame on Vinny and management.  

[WoolMagnet]

1 minute ago, stitches said:

It can also be Watson, Mahomes, Lamar level... 

haha. I agree, but the odds of that happening are staggering.

Heres hoping tho.

[stitches]

1 minute ago, WoolMagnet said:

haha. I agree, but the odds of that happening are staggering.

Heres hoping tho.

I mean it's happened 3 times in the last 3 drafts(too early to tell about last year's drafted QBs). It's far from a sure thing, but it happens. And of course - you only do it if you actually believe in the QBs that are available/reachable. You don't do it just to do it. 

[esmort]

43 minutes ago, WoolMagnet said:

haha. I agree, but the odds of that happening are staggering.

Heres hoping tho.

 

We may have to pay the price to move up if there is someone they think can be that franchise QB. 

[Thorolf]

I see a Lot of people saying things like " Brisset is not that  good !" I  would just like to remind those people of something-- When Peyton Manning had been our starting quarterback for less than 2 years, he was not so great either ! He set a new team record for most interceptions thrown in a  year !! It takes some time to acquire enough poise, experience and confidence to become really good . I think he is doing quite well considering his time in the Driver Seat ! If  JB sits another year in the Starting Quarterback position, and shows no additional improvement, perhaps it will be time to think about replacing him. But to replace him now simply puts us right back where we started, by having to break in a new quarterback from scratch again !! Sadly we seem to have gotten spoiled by having a true great like manning for so many years !! many of us need to remember what it was like before Peyton came along !! Give JB the time needed to show if he can step up !

[hoosierhawk]

All water over the dam. If the dog hadn't stopped to take a 'duke' he would have caught the rabbit. 

If JB would have done his job and thrown more tds in those games we would have won them all and be undefeated. Fact is , it is what it is. Give it up.