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Lucky Colts Fan

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Disclaimer:  This thread is being made in a lighthearted way.  There will be some funny math involved.  Don't take it too seriously.  :thmup:

 

So I saw in another thread that someone said Andrew Luck was worth 5 wins.  That got me thinking about how many wins per season you could rely on a QB for.

 

Think back to when Peyton Manning missed 2011.  The Colts went from a perennial 12-win team to a 2-win team.  You could say Manning was worth 10 wins a season.  The Colts went from a perennial 11-win team with (healthy) Luck to a 4-win team in 2017.  You could say Luck was worth 7 wins a season.  Our Colts QBs have carried some bad teams to good seasons.

 

When Elway retired, the Broncos went from a perennial 13-win team to a 6-win team, so you could say Elway was worth 7 wins a season.  Now when Brady missed 2008, the Pats went from a perennial 14-win team to an 11-win team... so is Tom Brady only worth 3 wins a season?  Both of those teams were thought to be complete teams with good run-games and good defenses, so how was there such a dropoff for the Broncos, but barely any dropoff for the Pats?

 

So my main point is this:  having a QB like Elway or Luck that you can basically rely on for 7 wins is REALLY good, but having Manning, who we could basically rely on for 10 wins is as good as it gets.  We will probably never see a QB like Manning ever again.  He put this franchise on his shoulders and carried it to the top of the mountain, and for all his accolades, I'm not sure he gets enough credit for that.  :goat:

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7 minutes ago, 2006Coltsbestever said:

3. Brett Favre 186-112 (1 SB win)

 

I thought about trying to decide how many wins/season you could credit to Favre, but it's the same dilemma as Montana: they were immediately followed by another HoFer (Young and Rodgers) so it's an apples to oranges comparison.  So Favre, Rodgers, Montana, and Young are all four probably worth around 7 wins/season like Elway and Luck.  We just don't have that one season where their team was led by an average QB like we do with Manning in 2011, Brady in 2008, and Luck in 2017.

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Interesting topic.   No great way to make the stat.   Brady doesn't look great with any method.  Going 11-5 without him and solid in other games without him doesn't look good.  We knew the team would suck without manning or Luck and it did.  I think the Colts have a better all around team now than they have had in a long time.  I think we would be 5-8 if Hoyer started all the games, so Brissett is a plus 1.

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6 minutes ago, Myles said:

Interesting topic.   No great way to make the stat.   Brady doesn't look great with any method.  Going 11-5 without him and solid in other games without him doesn't look good.  We knew the team would suck without manning or Luck and it did.  I think the Colts have a better all around team now than they have had in a long time.  I think we would be 5-8 if Hoyer started all the games, so Brissett is a plus 1.

We started 5-2. A lot when into this downfall. I don’t think we suck. Bad teams get beat bad. We have had leads in the 4th quarter. We just have had a lot of weird things happen this year.  A blocked quit, a missed kick, our WR unit getting wiped out. What makes this so sad is they did this to themselves. Despite the injuries we still had fourth quarter leads and double digit leads. We didn’t get outplayed or was it for lack of talent. It was stupid mistakes. I think I would rather just be a bad team and get outplayed then the way we have lost this year.

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2006Coltsbestever

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15 hours ago, Myles said:

Interesting topic.   No great way to make the stat.   Brady doesn't look great with any method.  Going 11-5 without him and solid in other games without him doesn't look good.  We knew the team would suck without manning or Luck and it did.  I think the Colts have a better all around team now than they have had in a long time.  I think we would be 5-8 if Hoyer started all the games, so Brissett is a plus 1.

Hoyer couldn't even beat Miami here in Indy, I seriously doubt he would be 5-8. More like 2-11 IMO. JB would've beat Miami, that alone would've put us 7-6.

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15 hours ago, Myles said:

No great way to make the stat.   Brady doesn't look great with any method.

 

Yeah, it's really a double-edged stat if you think about it.

 

For me to give Manning credit for 10 wins/season (which was the whole point of me making this thread), I have to admit that the team around him was so bad that they could only win 2 games without him.

 

On the flip side, the Pats fans that want to give Brady credit for all the Pats success have to admit that the team around him was so good they could win almost as many games without him.

 

It's a team game.  Maybe the most team-dependent game there is, so trying to credit one player for team success is a double-edged sword.  But Manning is the :goat:, and ain't no Pats fan gonna tell me different.  I'll use all the funny math and double-edged stats it takes to make that point.  haha

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Moosejawcolt

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22 hours ago, Lucky Colts Fan said:

Disclaimer:  This thread is being made in a lighthearted way.  There will be some funny math involved.  Don't take it too seriously.  :thmup:

 

So I saw in another thread that someone said Andrew Luck was worth 5 wins.  That got me thinking about how many wins per season you could rely on a QB for.

 

Think back to when Peyton Manning missed 2011.  The Colts went from a perennial 12-win team to a 2-win team.  You could say Manning was worth 10 wins a season.  The Colts went from a perennial 11-win team with (healthy) Luck to a 4-win team in 2017.  You could say Luck was worth 7 wins a season.  Our Colts QBs have carried some bad teams to good seasons.

 

When Elway retired, the Broncos went from a perennial 13-win team to a 6-win team, so you could say Elway was worth 7 wins a season.  Now when Brady missed 2008, the Pats went from a perennial 14-win team to an 11-win team... so is Tom Brady only worth 3 wins a season?  Both of those teams were thought to be complete teams with good run-games and good defenses, so how was there such a dropoff for the Broncos, but barely any dropoff for the Pats?

 

So my main point is this:  having a QB like Elway or Luck that you can basically rely on for 7 wins is REALLY good, but having Manning, who we could basically rely on for 10 wins is as good as it gets.  We will probably never see a QB like Manning ever again.  He put this franchise on his shoulders and carried it to the top of the mountain, and for all his accolades, I'm not sure he gets enough credit for that.  :goat:

I would also argue that Polian built this team around Manning.  He invested a lot of 1st round picks in the skill positions. I think a lot of qbs could have been successful in that offense.  Thst being said, Manning is one of the greats. Just imagine JB with all those weapons. Does he have limitation? Yes. However,  I think we would b looking at Brissett differently than we do now.

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2 hours ago, 2006Coltsbestever said:

Hoyer couldn't even beat Miami here in Indy, I seriously doubt he would be 5-8. More like 2-11 IMO. JB would've beat Miami, that alone would've put us 7-6.

Just no way to know.   Hoyer has a .420 winning % as a starter.  Mostly on bad teams.   Brissett has a .380 winning % as a starter.  Most on a bad team.  

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2 hours ago, 2006Coltsbestever said:

Hoyer couldn't even beat Miami here in Indy, I seriously doubt he would be 5-8. More like 2-11 IMO. JB would've beat Miami, that alone would've put us 7-6.

Did you know that JB has had 4 games with worse QBRs than Hoyer had in that game vs Miami?

 

You also need to give Reich an assist on the bad performance vs Miami given Hoyer got little to no 1st team reps. And the game plan was one of the biggest head scratchers I've every seen in my life.

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29 minutes ago, 2006Coltsbestever said:

Yeah but Brissett was 5-2 before his injury this year.

All close games.  Could have been 2-5.  Brissett ball produces close games and lends towards a .500 record.  I think next season with Brissett will yield another 7-9 win season.   

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3 minutes ago, Myles said:

All close games.  Could have been 2-5.  Brissett ball produces close games and lends towards a .500 record.  I think next season with Brissett will yield another 7-9 win season.   

Depends on the health of the team. Also I think the team around him will be better because of another Ballard draft. I doubt Reich has 2 losing seasons in a row.

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4 minutes ago, 2006Coltsbestever said:

Depends on the health of the team. Also I think the team around him will be better because of another Ballard draft. I doubt Reich has 2 losing seasons in a row.

I sure hope not, but Brissett style has been the same.   I don't think he'll suddenly change.  Close games is what we will see.   Could win, could lose.   That leads to a near .500 record.   That could 6 wins, it could be 10 wins.    

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3 minutes ago, Myles said:

I sure hope not, but Brissett style has been the same.   I don't think he'll suddenly change.  Close games is what we will see.   Could win, could lose.   That leads to a near .500 record.   That could 6 wins, it could be 10 wins.    

I see us going 6-10 this season now, losing last week was just deflating. Having said that this could've easily been a season where we went 10-6 if healthy. 

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On 12/14/2019 at 10:19 AM, Moosejawcolt said:

I would also argue that Polian built this team around Manning.  He invested a lot of 1st round picks in the skill positions. I think a lot of qbs could have been successful in that offense.  Thst being said, Manning is one of the greats. Just imagine JB with all those weapons. Does he have limitation? Yes. However,  I think we would b looking at Brissett differently than we do now.

So how is that statement confusing?  Do u want me to list the wr's, te's and rb's that Polian drafted for Manning in the 1st round?  They were numerous.

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43 minutes ago, Moosejawcolt said:

So how is that statement confusing?  Do u want me to list the wr's, te's and rb's that Polian drafted for Manning in the 1st round?  They were numerous.

I think the protocol is to bash JB. If you're not on that bandwagon, then folks get confused quickly. :dunno:

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