Week 8 impressions: Brissett

[Fisticuffs111]

13 minutes ago, stitches said:

 

I wrote this earlier - IMO this is not us "playing to the level of the competition". This is just a signifier of how good this team is - namely good not great. IMO one of the biggest reasons we don't blow out teams is that our offense lacks explosive element. This is the easiest way to rack up points and rack up point differential(aka blow teams out)... we just lack that aspect right now because whether people here think Brissett can make all the throws or not, whether you put the blame on the receivers or the QB, the reality is we don't throw the ball downfield. We are a slow offense(I think the stat was us being bottom 3 in pace in game-neutral situation for the first 5 weeks or so), we run a lot, we lack deep passing game. All of those things contribute lowering the variance of our offensive output and lowering the chance of us blowing teams out. At the same time we are good/solid enough to hang with most teams so we are not getting blown out either. We are a good, not great team that can beat almost anyone, but can also lose to almost anyone too. 

Yeah, agreed on all that.

 

Our drives always have to work out just about perfectly to get 7 on the board. Always long, methodical drives. And that's really hard to sustain when your running game isn't firing on all cylinders, which it obviously won't always be and really hasn't been for the past couple games. Like you mention, until we're able to attack downfield with some regularity, our offense will be kind of nerve wracking.

[krunk]

23 minutes ago, stitches said:

 

I wrote this earlier - IMO this is not us "playing to the level of the competition". This is just a signifier of how good this team is - namely good not great. IMO one of the biggest reasons we don't blow out teams is that our offense lacks explosive element. This is the easiest way to rack up points and rack up point differential(aka blow teams out)... we just lack that aspect right now because whether people here think Brissett can make all the throws or not, whether you put the blame on the receivers or the QB, the reality is we don't throw the ball downfield. We are a slow offense(I think the stat was us being bottom 3 in pace in game-neutral situation for the first 5 weeks or so), we run a lot, we lack deep passing game. All of those things contribute lowering the variance of our offensive output and lowering the chance of us blowing teams out. At the same time we are good/solid enough to hang with most teams so we are not getting blown out either. We are a good, not great team that can beat almost anyone, but can also lose to almost anyone too. 

For the most part I agree with this.  I think Jacoby has not taken advantage of opportunities in some instances.  In other instances I say we don't really have many explosive players until these young guys get more consistent action within the offense to help TY get loose.  When you look at it the only times we've gone deep is to Deion Cain but every single time we've done it he's been double teamed.  If you're doubling TY and in most games you have Ebron dropping the ball then what you have left is Pascal and Jack Doyle. 

 

We don't really have any guys to take the top off a defense until we can start making better use of Campbell and Cain.  Therefore I think that leaves us with the intermediate passing game and the running game.  When that's all you have then you have to put together long drives and methodically get down the field while eating up clock.  That's basically what our offense is right now.  

 

My major take is we have to do a hell of a lot better job of making use of our young explosive players.  We have to do more to get Campbell and Cain involved in the offense.  I refuse to believe we can't do that!

[2006Coltsbestever]

7 hours ago, stitches said:

No he doesn't have to play well for the team to win in the short-term(weird bounces of the ball happen all the time in small samples). In fact he's played horribly in several of the games we've won. He just has to not # up too much and allow the rest of the team to win the games for him(KC game, this game, etc). 

 

The 14/3 is great. This is the best part of Jacoby's performance so far(especially his red zone performance). His stats do not reflect how well/poorly he's been playing, though. By the nature of his playing style he will never turn the ball over too much so the 3 INTs are within the range of what you'd expect from him(he had very few INTs even with Pagano and Chud calling games for him). What he's done extremely well is execute in the red zone and rack up TDs. This should not be underestimated and this IMO is one of the very few things that is the saving grace for him this season. 

 

The game vs HOU was his best by a mile. If he played like that in every game no one would be having any gripes about his performances. The problem is that this game is sandwiched between 3 games which were pretty bad from him and the rest of the season has been a bunch of meh. So that's 1 great game, 3 horrible games and 3 ...lets call them OK games. This is not a consistent QB play. In most seasons this type of performance over the season will give you about 50% win rate, unless the rest of your team is bonkers or you get some lucky breaks. Our point differential is +7. This is the worst point differential in our division right now. It's the worst point differential of all the teams with this or better record in the entire league. Research shows that about every 33 points in point differential give you a win/loss in each direction from 8-8. So if we extrapolate our current performance over a full season (i.e. if we keep playing as good as we've played so far), we would get that this team real strength is about 8.5 wins. I think people are getting blinded by that 5-2 number. In the long run if your team performs like we've been performing so far this would be a 7-9 wins team depending on various breaks you or your opponents get. Point differential is also a good way to weed out the contenders from the pretenders. Here's some research about how much better of a chance you have to win it all if you stomp out your opponents rather than win close games all the time. This is what I'm talking about when I'm asking "what type of record/success do you expect in the long run if we(and Brissett in particular) keep playing like that?" ... 

 

And yes, Brissett is below average QB. In another thread I gave you the QBs I'd take over him and I got to about 22 I think. I think it's reasonable to argue over several names there so lets say 18-23 range. This is still below average. At least this is in my opinion. 

Your definition of playing horribly and mine are different. Playing horribly would mean he is turning the ball over at crucial times costing us games. Just because he isn't throwing for a lot of yards doesn't mean he is playing horribly. FWIW, I have JB rated 15th now which if a QB is rated 16th or better that is top half of the league considering there are 32 teams. 15th = above average.

[stitches]

6 minutes ago, 2006Coltsbestever said:

Your definition of playing horribly and mine are different. Playing horribly would mean he is turning the ball over at crucial times costing us games. Just because he isn't throwing for a lot of yards doesn't mean he is playing horribly. FWIW, I have JB rated 15th now which if a QB is rated 16th or better that is top half of the league considering there are 32 teams. 15th = above average.

Fair enough. I guess we have to agree to disagree about the 5-6 names between your ranking and my ranking of Brissett. Cheers 

[throwing BBZ]

1 hour ago, Colts_Fan12 said:

you have to think about more than just the win we are struggling to beat garbage can teams that isnt a good sign when your goal is to be in the playoffs cause there wont be any garbage teams then.

 

 LMAO
 We watched our last QB play a lot of bad FB, with veterans, and beating garbage teams with garbage QB's his 1st 3 years and he was exalted. The guy couldn't lead a receiver in the bread basket for sh__!
 He ran, and held onto the ball well, and was the Best at saying "Nice Hit" though.

[Colts_Fan12]

4 minutes ago, throwing BBZ said:

 

 LMAO
 We watched our last QB play a lot of bad FB, with veterans, and beating garbage teams with garbage QB's his 1st 3 years and he was exalted. The guy couldn't lead a receiver in the bread basket for sh__!
 He ran, and held onto the ball well, and was the Best at saying "Nice Hit" though.

just stop while you are ahead 

[2006Coltsbestever]

1 hour ago, Colts_Fan12 said:

you have to think about more than just the win we are struggling to beat garbage can teams that isnt a good sign when your goal is to be in the playoffs cause there wont be any garbage teams then.

I wouldn't consider KC or Houston to be garbage can teams but that is my opinion.

[Colts_Fan12]

Just now, 2006Coltsbestever said:

I wouldn't consider KC or Houston to be garbage can teams but that is my opinion.

KC with a hurt mahomes is almost useless Hou is decent I don't seem them as great by any means 

[shasta519]

1 hour ago, Fisticuffs111 said:

Man...these threads are bordering on being unreadable because of how defensive people get about another posters opinion of Brissett. Opinions that I rarely ever find hateful, anti-JB, whatever you wanna call it.

It's crazy how this fictional group that "hates" Brissett has been conjured up in these threads. It's a fallacy.

 

They started trending in that direction after a couple of weeks. 

[Colts_Fan12]

11 minutes ago, shastamasta said:

 

They started trending in that direction after a couple of weeks. 

I've said it before but man I can stand the crap that is posted after wins. What the hell are some of these people thinking?  

 

MVP talk and all that over exaggeration it gets old. then you have the instant crying ad soon as you criticize anything about JB.

[2006Coltsbestever]

33 minutes ago, Colts_Fan12 said:

I've said it before but man I can stand the crap that is posted after wins. What the hell are some of these people thinking?  

 

MVP talk and all that over exaggeration it gets old. then you have the instant crying ad soon as you criticize anything about JB.

Yeah others and myself can't stand the crap some post either after we lose about how JB is a below average QB, he isn't a franchise QB, etc.. Some are saying that about him after we win. There are some on here comparing JB to freakin Brock Osweiler, Matt Cassell, and Byron Leftwich. I have seen the posts. That is ridiculous, he is better than all 3 of them. I think some 'not all' but some already have their mind made up about JB and just think he isn't a franchise QB. I chose my words carefully by saying 'not all'. I also think some people are holding too high of a standard for JB, they want him to be Andrew Luck basically. He isn't and never will be Luck plain and simple. 

 

For me it comes down to winning more than anything, that is the most important thing. Until JB starts losing games by turning it over/playing horribly than my opinion will not change of him. I look at him simply as an above average QB, around 15th or so that can win a lot of games with team around him. Much like Foles and Flacco have.

[EastStreet]

On 10/28/2019 at 1:57 AM, stitches said:

thanks for the numbers... they provide important context for what we are seeing. I agree TY is getting doubled a lot, but I wonder if there is a service that actually tracks those things? I don't think I've found a place that track them. PFF must be tracking them. Can someone with access check this out - how much is TY getting doubled and how does it compare to the rest of the league top receivers?

I've never seen a stat like that (WR doubled) reported. I've only seen % on coverage type (nickel, dime, and man vs zone). FOs actually lists in their definition that they do not take doubles into consideration (for their DYAR and DVOA ratings).

[EastStreet]

On 10/28/2019 at 4:13 AM, SteelCityColt said:

 

That's a facile statement if I've ever seen one.

 

I do... I just lack time right now. 

 

Cherry pick some plays and I can post up All 22 shots.

 

Thanks SSC.

1. IIRC, the play that stuck out most was following a the play where JB got hit and knocked down. It was the 2nd half, pretty sure 3rd Q. I'll try to figure out specifically when it was and provide if I can. I was on the phone so not sure of the clock.

 

2. There are two plays (2 and 8, and 3rd and 8) right before the FG in the 3rd Q I'd love to see just for sheets and grins. 6ish min to go in the 3rd

 

3. The second to last series in the 4th (resulted in a punt). Two incomplete passes, one to Rogers and one to Doyle.

[Restinpeacesweetchloe]

I bet this is how Jacoby feels.

 

 

[shasta519]

8 hours ago, stitches said:

No he doesn't have to play well for the team to win in the short-term(weird bounces of the ball happen all the time in small samples). In fact he's played horribly in several of the games we've won. He just has to not # up too much and allow the rest of the team to win the games for him(KC game, this game, etc). 

 

The 14/3 is great. This is the best part of Jacoby's performance so far(especially his red zone performance). His stats do not reflect how well/poorly he's been playing, though. By the nature of his playing style he will never turn the ball over too much so the 3 INTs are within the range of what you'd expect from him(he had very few INTs even with Pagano and Chud calling games for him). What he's done extremely well is execute in the red zone and rack up TDs. This should not be underestimated and this IMO is one of the very few things that is the saving grace for him this season. 

 

The game vs HOU was his best by a mile. If he played like that in every game no one would be having any gripes about his performances. The problem is that this game is sandwiched between 3 games which were pretty bad from him and the rest of the season has been a bunch of meh. So that's 1 great game, 3 horrible games and 3 ...lets call them OK games. This is not a consistent QB play. In most seasons this type of performance over the season will give you about 50% win rate, unless the rest of your team is bonkers or you get some lucky breaks. Our point differential is +7. This is the worst point differential in our division right now. It's the worst point differential of all the teams with this or better record in the entire league. Research shows that about every 33 points in point differential give you a win/loss in each direction from 8-8. So if we extrapolate our current performance over a full season (i.e. if we keep playing as good as we've played so far), we would get that this team real strength is about 8.5 wins. I think people are getting blinded by that 5-2 number. In the long run if your team performs like we've been performing so far this would be a 7-9 wins team depending on various breaks you or your opponents get. Point differential is also a good way to weed out the contenders from the pretenders. Here's some research about how much better of a chance you have to win it all if you stomp out your opponents rather than win close games all the time. This is what I'm talking about when I'm asking "what type of record/success do you expect in the long run if we(and Brissett in particular) keep playing like that?" ... 

 

And yes, Brissett is below average QB. In another thread I gave you the QBs I'd take over him and I got to about 22 I think. I think it's reasonable to argue over several names there so lets say 18-23 range. This is still below average. At least this is in my opinion. 

 

I agree. The INT % is nearly identical to his 2017 season...that's who JB is...he's doesn't take risks...and he's in a system now that has him taking even less than Chud.

 

The TDs are the saving grace and I love the RZ efficiency...but TD distribution is somewhat the result of circumstance. When the Colts get close...they prefer to pass. And predictably the TD distribution is way balanced toward passing TDs.

 

This is why they are bottom 3rd in the NFL with only 4 rushing TDs...despite being a top 15 run offense (and one of those TD was a 63 yard scamper and another was a JB from 1 yard out).

 

Those will likely balance out a bit. And as we have seen, JB has 4 TDs in the past three games...after having 10 in the first 4.

[hoosierhawk]

3 hours ago, GoatBeard said:

No, I just dont care about his flaws more than the outcome of the game.

 

We win, I'm good. I'm not a scout. It's not my job to play one online. I'm a fan. My job is to root for the team and relish in their success. 

 

I just know my role. 

That's like saying that 'I don't care if the tires are bald and the engine overheats and the windows are broken, it got me home so that's all that matters. it' a great car"

[EastStreet]

On 10/28/2019 at 4:49 AM, stitches said:

 

 

 

I think there are a few ways to look at this.

 

A) A team that has not been particularly good in rushing the passer this year (like Eager said) rose to the occasion.

 

or 

 

B) A QB that had the 2nd highest time-to-throw held onto the ball to long and allowed the pass rush to be effective

 

or 

 

C) Fangio schemed well against a team that is somewhat predictable, throws a lot of short passes, and has a QB with a high TTT.

 

or 

 

D) Reich failed to create a game plan (or make second half adjustments) to take advantage of the D that Fangio was throwing at us (like throwing into the blitz, screens, etc.)

 

or a combination of the above.....

[Creekside]

51 minutes ago, Chloe6124 said:

I bet this is how Jacoby feels.

 

 

 

Garoppolo    yds per game :     212.7

 

Brissett         yds per game :     227.1

 

[EastStreet]

On 10/28/2019 at 10:23 AM, Chloe6124 said:

I wish we would of taken Mclaurin over Campbell. He was nfl ready. Maybe next year we get a stud instead of relying on late round picks. 

Good lord. Please take a moment and look at Mclaurin's route charts.

https://nextgenstats.nfl.com/charts/player/terry-mclaurin/MCL278328/season

 

You need to consider the following.....

 

1. McLaurin is the best WR the skins have, and is showcased. He has as many targets as TY. It's because of necessity he's playing, as their #2 and #3 WRs are Paul Richards and Trey Quinn lol.  Even while leading the team in yards, he's only getting on average 4 catches per game.

 

2. His 2 games over 100 yards were largely due to deep chunk plays (high air yards) against teams with passing Ds in the bottom half of the league. One game he had three 30ish yard or more catches, and the other was like a 70 yard bomb with 50ish air yards....

 

3. He's playing a position that will get deeper throws on average than PC is or will be.

 

4. JB simply doesn't throw a lot of deep balls, so chances are he'd be getting the "Cain" treatment on this board because he's not the 1st read and simply not targeted.

[IinD]

45 minutes ago, EastStreet said:

 

I think there are a few ways to look at this.

 

A) A team that has not been particularly good in rushing the passer this year (like Eager said) rose to the occasion.

 

or 

 

B) A QB that had the 2nd highest time-to-throw held onto the ball to long and allowed the pass rush to be effective

 

or 

 

C) Fangio schemed well against a team that is somewhat predictable, throws a lot of short passes, and has a QB with a high TTT.

 

or 

 

D) Reich failed to create a game plan (or make second half adjustments) to take advantage of the D that Fangio was throwing at us (like throwing into the blitz, screens, etc.)

 

or a combination of the above.....

Or Denver got + slapped the prior week and came to play.

They get paid to play as well.

[EastStreet]

On 10/28/2019 at 11:29 AM, Myles said:

"Open receivers" is kind of subjective as well.   I'm glad Jacoby doesn't think he is a QB that can keep throwing into tight windows.   I also think Reich has him reeled in quite a bit.   

There is no question that Brissett doesn't see the whole field as good as some other QB's, but it is what it is.  His sacks are low, his INT's are low, his TD's are high and his team is 5-2.    

His AGGN% ranks 25th, which means he tries to fit it into tight windows more than 24 other QBs. This is likely due to his his over reliance on TY who is doubled a lot. 

[2006Coltsbestever]

2 hours ago, 2006Coltsbestever said:

Yeah others and myself can't stand the crap some post either after we lose about how JB is a below average QB, he isn't a franchise QB, etc.. Some are saying that about him after we win. There are some on here comparing JB to freakin Brock Osweiler, Matt Cassell, and Byron Leftwich. I have seen the posts. That is ridiculous, he is better than all 3 of them. I think some 'not all' but some already have their mind made up about JB and just think he isn't a franchise QB. I chose my words carefully by saying 'not all'. I also think some people are holding too high of a standard for JB, they want him to be Andrew Luck basically. He isn't and never will be Luck plain and simple. 

 

For me it comes down to winning more than anything, that is the most important thing. Until JB starts losing games by turning it over/playing horribly than my opinion will not change of him. I look at him simply as an above average QB, around 15th or so that can win a lot of games with team around him. Much like Foles and Flacco have.

with this team around him is what I meant regarding my last sentence. JB reminds me of an Alex Smith, Nick Foles, Joe Flacco in their primes type. Not great or even very good but above average to good at times. Flacco and Foles both won SB's and actually played great in those years, Smith lost in a OT game to the Giants in the 2011 NFC Title Game. We can win with JB with the right people around him. We need another WR that can make plays down field. Maybe Funch will be the answer when he gets back. Does anyone think AJ Green has anything left in the tank? Cincy is looking to trade him.

[Creekside]

5 minutes ago, EastStreet said:

His AGGN% ranks 25th, which means he tries to fit it into tight windows more than 24 other QBs. This is likely due to his his over reliance on TY who is doubled a lot. 

 

How does that mesh with the criticism that Brissett shys away from the more difficult throws and only hits the easy targets?

[EastStreet]

On 10/28/2019 at 12:50 PM, Nickster said:

 

Well we'll just have to agree to disagree.  The TE position is often very very open on this team.  

just saw a stat yesterday (from Nextgen) that Doyle had the second best separation in the league (includes WRs, TEs) for the week, and is ranked 4th for the year. 

[Restinpeacesweetchloe]

57 minutes ago, egg said:

 

Garoppolo    yds per game :     212.7

 

Brissett         yds per game :     227.1

 

Isn’t that crazy.

Reich on roundtable mentioned last night the only thing that matters in a game is that your YPA is greater then your opponents YPA each game. He said nothing else matters.

[SteelCityColt]

31 minutes ago, Chloe6124 said:

Isn’t that crazy.

Reich on roundtable mentioned last night the only thing that matters in a game is that your YPA is greater then your opponents YPA each game. He said nothing else matters.

Do you now get why people were pointing out how low Brissett’s was relatively speaking?

[SteelCityColt]

1 hour ago, egg said:

 

Garoppolo    yds per game :     212.7

 

Brissett         yds per game :     227.1

 

Yes... but on how many attempts? 
 

As in what’s the Y/A for each?

[EastStreet]

9 hours ago, Chloe6124 said:

Andrew Luck didn’t play well every game so why you holding JB to such a high standard. Didn’t luck get shutout in Jax last year. I have seen below average QB. If you can’t tell the difference between a below average QB I don’t know what to tell you. Below average QB don’t make that play at the end of the game Sunday. There are good defenses in the NFL that even elite QB struggle with. Brady had 16 pts against the bills and struggled.

Let's look at a larger sample size with some context.

 

Here's the thing. Luck had 3 games last year with sub 50 QBRs out of 16 regular season games. Two of the three were early in the season when the OL was basically musical chairs, and one of those games was without TY and the other was vs the defending SB champions. The third was vs the Jags who were 2nd in the league in pass defense, we were without our starting center (Luck sacked 3 times), and IIRC had several drops by WRs/TEs.

 

In contrast, our entire starting OL has played every down this year (unless that changed last game), he has the same or better receiving group as Luck, and JB has 4 games with sub 50 QBRs before we're even at the season mid point. 

 

 

[Restinpeacesweetchloe]

48 minutes ago, SteelCityColt said:

Do you now get why people were pointing out how low Brissett’s was relatively speaking?

Reich wasn’t pointing out though what it was for the year combined. He was talking about each individual game. He also didn’t say if he was talking just about passing or overall including rush and pass.

[EastStreet]

1 hour ago, IinD said:

Or Denver got + slapped the prior week and came to play.

They get paid to play as well.

It's pretty simple to me.

 

QBs that hold onto the ball the longest, simply allow more time for a rush, even with a good OL. That's pure logic.

 

Reich's play calling was bland/safe/predictable. Not sure many would disagree here. And there wasn't really any second half adjustment... 

 

JB's lack of deep shots telegraph to a DC to play shallow and clog things 0-15 yards, making it easier on DBs to cover pass catchers, and allows the rush more opportunity.

 

Not saying Denver didn't come to play, but they are a mediocre to bad team. We need to do better at home. 

[Creekside]

43 minutes ago, SteelCityColt said:

Yes... but on how many attempts? 
 

As in what’s the Y/A for each?

 

 

Garopollo  ... 7.9 yds per attempt

 

Brady      .....  7.3

 

Brissett .........6.9

 

Wentz ...........6.9

 

Does this mean Garopollo is better than Brady or Wentz?    Of course not.

 

Does this mean that Garoppolo is better than Brissett?   Of course it does!

 

 

[Restinpeacesweetchloe]

11 minutes ago, egg said:

 

 

Garopollo  ... 7.9 yds per attempt

 

Brady      .....  7.3

 

Brissett .........6.9

 

Wentz ...........6.9

 

Does this mean Garopollo is better than Brady or Wentz?    Of course not.

 

Does this mean that Garoppolo is better than Brissett?   Of course it does!

 

 

Here is the link. I swear people want him to fail so bad. One more yard per carry isnt event that much. 

 

https://www.footballdb.com/stats/stats.html?

[IinD]

20 minutes ago, EastStreet said:

It's pretty simple to me.

 

QBs that hold onto the ball the longest, simply allow more time for a rush, even with a good OL. That's pure logic.

 

Reich's play calling was bland/safe/predictable. Not sure many would disagree here. And there wasn't really any second half adjustment... 

 

JB's lack of deep shots telegraph to a DC to play shallow and clog things 0-15 yards, making it easier on DBs to cover pass catchers, and allows the rush more opportunity.

 

Not saying Denver didn't come to play, but they are a mediocre to bad team. We need to do better at home. 

It sucks because although you and others gather some good info to put into good posts we still don't FULLY know the entire picture yet I think.

 

Frank had some head scratchers this week for sure. I do like that Jacoby does his poor man's Mahomes/Rodgers type dance to buy more time though. Hopefully he can start hitting some big deep plays like those guys do when they dance around the pocket.

 

Let's hope we just keep winning while we smooth things out.

 

 

[EastStreet]

1 hour ago, egg said:

 

How does that mesh with the criticism that Brissett shys away from the more difficult throws and only hits the easy targets?

I've never said that JB isn't making "difficult" throws. Personally what I've said is he over relies on TY, regardless of he's open or not (he's the most doubled WR), who is more times than not his first read. He also does the same at times locking on to TE. Because we lack consistent deep attempts, Ds clog the middle which means less separation for those running shallow routes. 

 

So in short, there's a big difference making a lot of "difficult" short throws to a covered primary receiver, vs someone making throws downfield or spreading the ball around to others. And throwing downfield doesn't always mean a more "difficult" throw. It might mean more patience or good vision, but not more difficult from an arm perspective. 

 

To go a little further, his best game throwing this year was Houston. Sure Houston's pass D isn't great, but I'd argue the game plan itself (spreading it out more) had as much to do with it as Houston's deficiencies. And in week 1, even though it was a loss, the O had more of a flow with JB throwing to all quads. 

 

What is strange, in 2017, his best field quadrants in terms of success were deep middle and deep right (see the grid in the link below). With Reich, we rarely go there. I'm not saying we go bombs away, but it's just plain strange that we don't have more shots to those area. It's not like we don't have speed. We have four guys that are 4.3s or 4.4s..... (doesn't take much route running to go deep) And if you look at Reich's time with the Eagles in 2017, he went deep a bunch more (in the same link, search on Foles and Wentz in 2017). Why doesn't he trust JB to do what his 2 QBs did in 2017?

 

https://nextgenstats.nfl.com/charts/player/season/jacoby-brissett/BRI516391/2017/all/qb-grid

 

 

 

[Restinpeacesweetchloe]

Some good stuff here. If the broncos were able to rush without adding extra help that’s probably one reason they were able to cover our recievers. 

 

 

[2006Coltsbestever]

3 hours ago, egg said:

 

 

Garopollo  ... 7.9 yds per attempt

 

Brady      .....  7.3

 

Brissett .........6.9

 

Wentz ...........6.9

 

Does this mean Garopollo is better than Brady or Wentz?    Of course not.

 

Does this mean that Garoppolo is better than Brissett?   Of course it does!

 

 

I love this post because it has been used by many as an important stat and to criticize JB. So by this stat I guess Tom Brady is average this year  

[EastStreet]

48 minutes ago, 2006Coltsbestever said:

I love this post because it has been used by many as an important stat and to criticize JB. So by this stat I guess Tom Brady is average this year  

Being that Brady is having statistically one of his worst years, and is playing with the #1 D.... not sure why it's such a great stat. I think this is his worst year for QBR ever. And even he said when asked why the team is undefeated, he said "one word, defense". Almost same story with SF.

[Superman]

1st quarter, 14:15, 2nd and 4, Denver 45.

Colts go 3x1 to the left. Broncos show off man, before the snap the SS aligns over the trips receivers. It's not obvious yet, but the Broncos are going to send five rushers. 

 

 

 

At the snap, the Colts use play action (my favorite thing to do on 2nd and short). The Broncos send five and play man coverage with one deep safety. The SS (Kareem Jackson playing safety here) picks up the TE (MAC), but has to navigate around Pascal, who's running a post. Pascal's route will hold the deep safety in the middle of the field, as do JB's eyes. This opens up the sideline for MAC, who has outside leverage on the SS and plenty of room to work along the boundary.

 

 

 

 

When JB decides to throw the ball, he is not under pressure. The blitz has been picked up, and he even has room to step up into the pocket if he wants another half beat before throwing the ball. But he doesn't need more time.

 

 

 

MAC has his man beat up the sideline by at least a step, and he's 7 inches taller than him. JB throws to a tightly covered TY Hilton, that gets broken up by Chris Harris (great play, btw). The deep safety is still at center field, and not in position to contest a throw up the sideline. This would have required some anticipation and a recognition that the coverage was beat. It could have simply gone over the top, but even if the safety were closing in, the elite throw would have been the outside fade.

 

 

This is the second play of the game. There are other examples in this game, and maybe I'll do some simpler screenshots of them, but this is the prototypical example of 'JB is passing up opportunities to go downfield.' 

 

Are there maybe reasons for this, other than JB just being too conservative? Sure, but are any of them going to be any good? Is there any reason not to pull the trigger on this throw to MAC?

 

This doesn't mean JB sucks, doesn't mean we should trade away all our picks to take a QB at #1, doesn't mean he should be drawn and quartered, doesn't mean he'll never get better at this. But acknowledging that there's room for improvement here, and that this type of improvement would make our offense significantly more efficient is also okay.

[Superman]

This is the naked bootleg on the final FG drive. This started the last set of downs before the kick, first and 10 on the Denver 34, 1:29 remaining. Bottom line, MAC is wide open for what would likely be a go ahead TD. (Did he take JB's parking spot or something?) JB never saw him.

 

 

Now obviously, it's possible that even if JB had seen MAC, he wouldn't have tried the throw. It's not necessarily an easy throw without setting your feet, and there's a possibility that it falls incomplete and stops the clock. Even if you score, it's 19-13, and you're giving Denver the ball with about 1:20 on the clock and two timeouts. But the point is that JB didn't see him.

[Superman]

7:53 left in the 4th quarter, 1st and 20, Chester Rogers open up the seam. Pass goes incomplete to Hilton.