Week 8 impressions: Brissett

[2006Coltsbestever]

10 minutes ago, Superman said:

7:53 left in the 4th quarter, 1st and 20, Chester Rogers open up the seam. Pass goes incomplete to Hilton.

 

 

 

 

 

Your posts are legit and good points regarding JB. I am one that has never said JB doesn't need to improve as well. So we agree on that 100%. For as many plays JB hasn't made you could show just as many great plays he has made, it goes both ways. It is ok to critique him, I get it but it just gets on my nerves when people say the guy is below average. I guess I am watching a different QB than some. If you tune into to ESPN and the NFL Channel, those guys think he is good. They give him more praise than I do which is shocking. 

[Superman]

1 minute ago, 2006Coltsbestever said:

Your posts are legit and good points regarding JB. I am one that has never said JB doesn't need to improve as well. So we agree on that 100%. For as many plays JB hasn't made you could show just as many great plays he has made. It is ok to critique him, I get it but it just gets on my nerves when people say the guy is below average. I guess I am watching a different QB than some. If you tune into to ESPN and the NFL Channel, those guys think he is good. They give him more praise than I do which is shocking. 

 

I don't care about the label, average, below average, above average, whatever you want to call him, doesn't matter.

 

I'm talking about the things I think he needs to do to help the offense reach its potential. And I'm specifically offering a counter to the 'there are no open receivers' argument that came up earlier. 

[2006Coltsbestever]

1 minute ago, Superman said:

 

I don't care about the label, average, below average, above average, whatever you want to call him, doesn't matter.

 

I'm talking about the things I think he needs to do to help the offense reach its potential. And I'm specifically offering a counter to the 'there are no open receivers' argument that came up earlier. 

That is fair but many other QB's do the same thing as well. I guess by week 12 or 13 we will really know if JB keeps making the same mistakes. I also think not having a good #2 hurts his game. Lets be fair here, other than TY Hilton who else would you consider good-great on the team at WR? Teams double TY and at that point Frank has to call a solid game. Ebron is good at TE but drops easy balls, Doyle is good but not a deep threat. I thought Campbell would flourish as a rookie but he has been injured most of the season. Funch has been out since week 1 as well.

[stitches]

19 minutes ago, 2006Coltsbestever said:

Your posts are legit and good points regarding JB. I am one that has never said JB doesn't need to improve as well. So we agree on that 100%. For as many plays JB hasn't made you could show just as many great plays he has made, it goes both ways. It is ok to critique him, I get it but it just gets on my nerves when people say the guy is below average. I guess I am watching a different QB than some. If you tune into to ESPN and the NFL Channel, those guys think he is good. They give him more praise than I do which is shocking. 

Eh... man, you yourself have him no. 15 in the league. You are acting like thinking he's below average is some insane proposition. It takes someone thinking just 2 more QBs are better than him than you do to consider him below average. Just 2. List the 3-4 QBs you have right after Brissett. Is the difference from 15 to 18 THAT BIG that it 'gets on your nerves' that someone thinks he's 18 or 19 or 22 rather than 15?

 

Furthermore, I said it earlier(or in another thread, not sure) - to me it doesn't really matter if he's 15 or 22, if he's average or below average. At any time in the league there might be 5 or 10 or 15 or 25 franchise QBs(i.e. QBs that weekly can be the reason your team wins, QBs that can lead an efficient and potent offense). This is not a function of Brissett's relative skills to other QBs, this is a function of his absolute skills and what he can and cannot do on a consistent basis to contribute for your team winning.

[2006Coltsbestever]

2 minutes ago, stitches said:

Eh... man, you yourself have him no. 15 in the league. You are acting like thinking he's below average is some insane proposition. It takes someone thinking just 2 more QBs are better than him than your do to consider him below average. Just 2. List the 3-4 QBs you have right after Brissett. Is the difference from 15 to 18 THAT BIG that it gets on your nerves that someone thinks he's 18 or 19 or 22 rather than 15?

 

Furthermore, I said it earlier(or in another thread, not sure) - to me it doesn't really matter if he's 15 or 22, if he's average or below average. At any time in the league there might be 5 or 10 or 15 or 25 franchise QBs(i.e. QBs that weekly can be the reason your team wins). This is not a function of Brissett's relative skillset to other QBs, this is a function of his absolute skillset and what he can and cannot do on a consistent basis to contribute for your team winning.

Actually the difference between 15 and 20 is huge. It doesn't seem like it but it is from a QB standpoint. 

[Superman]

1 minute ago, 2006Coltsbestever said:

Actually the difference between 15 and 20 is huge. It doesn't seem like it but it is from a QB standpoint. 

 

This is why I do tiers. 

[2006Coltsbestever]

Just now, Superman said:

 

This is why I do tiers. 

I will have to break it down into tiers myself. On another thread I had 15 QB's better than JB but didn't do tiers. I now have 14 better, so I have JB at 15.

[stitches]

12 minutes ago, 2006Coltsbestever said:

Actually the difference between 15 and 20 is huge. It doesn't seem like it but it is from a QB standpoint. 

Well, in this specific moment in time I agree. I posted my franchise QBs last week and I think the last one that I considered franchise QB type was at 15 or 16, thus the difference between those and 20 would be somewhat substantial(I included the injured QBs in that list, though - Cam, Roethlisberger, etc). I just happen to think Brissett has not yet shown that he's among those 15 or 16 players that  have shown that they can consistently lead an efficient offense. 

[Superman]

7 minutes ago, 2006Coltsbestever said:

That is fair but many other QB's do the same thing as well. I guess by week 12 or 13 we will really know if JB keeps making the same mistakes. I also think not having a good #2 hurts his game. Lets be fair here, other than TY Hilton who else would you consider good-great on the team at WR? Teams double TY and at that point Frank has to call a solid game. Ebron is good at TE but drops easy balls, Doyle is good but not a deep threat. I thought Campbell would flourish as a rookie but he has been injured most of the season. Funch has been out since week 1 as well.

 

First bolded, how many of them start for the Colts?

 

Second bolded, I don't care who's good-great, I care who the ball can be thrown to. 

 

And overall, there's a lot of 'the receivers aren't good' going on here, and basically anything else that can be blamed, because apparently along the way, an agreement was made that we wouldn't hold JB responsible for his own performance. 

[2006Coltsbestever]

2 minutes ago, Superman said:

 

First bolded, how many of them start for the Colts?

 

Second bolded, I don't care who's good-great, I care who the ball can be thrown to. 

 

And overall, there's a lot of 'the receivers aren't good' going on here, and basically anything else that can be blamed, because apparently along the way, an agreement was made that we wouldn't hold JB responsible for his own performance. 

I think by me saying JB is just above average is very fair based on stats and being 5-2. I have never said the guy is good, very good, or great. Someone saying JB is below average I am just not buying it. That is my opinion though.

[SteelCityColt]

7 hours ago, Chloe6124 said:

Here is the link. I swear people want him to fail so bad. One more yard per carry isnt event that much. 

 

https://www.footballdb.com/stats/stats.html?

You’d be wrong, one yard is huge, that’s a pretty accepted thing by football people. 

[SteelCityColt]

7 hours ago, egg said:

 

 

Garopollo  ... 7.9 yds per attempt

 

Brady      .....  7.3

 

Brissett .........6.9

 

Wentz ...........6.9

 

Does this mean Garopollo is better than Brady or Wentz?    Of course not.

 

Does this mean that Garoppolo is better than Brissett?   Of course it does!

 

 

Now you’re putting words in my mouth. 
 

The point I was making that volume stats and by extension per game stats need context. Why per attempt is better IMO.

 

i said exactly the same thing when comparing the Broncos D to the Steelers. How does this fit in your narrative of “people hate Jacoby”. 

[SteelCityColt]

5 hours ago, 2006Coltsbestever said:

I love this post because it has been used by many as an important stat and to criticize JB. So by this stat I guess Tom Brady is average this year  

Come on now, he’s cherry picked out a few QBs. Brady isn’t actually having that good a year, neither is Wentz. He has a lower YPA than a QB that just got benched (Mariota).
 

Look league wide and look historically. Good QBs tend to have good Y/A. Personally I prefer Adjusted Net Yards per Attempt (Passing Yards - Sack Yards + (20 * Passing TD) - (45 * Interceptions)) / (Passes Attempted + Times Sacked) as it tells more of the story in one number. If we look since 2004 (if you have to ask why then.. ) at QBs with at least 16  starts sorted by ANY/A:

 

http://pfref.com/tiny/YXLkf

 

While not perfect because no one metric ever will be, it's not a bad first pass yardstick for QBs. It is an important stat, but it's not the only thing most people are pointing out. There's thing on film too as @Superman has wonderfully put together for us. As a side note as we've made the comparison before, Alex Smith's career ANY/A is 5.80 while Brisset's is 5.75, so pretty similar.  

 

There is a hell of a lot of false characterisation going on here currently, as well as ad hominems up the ying yang. To be clear not including you in that statement. I don't think we're all that far apart ultimatly, you have him as what , #15 QB? I'd be more towards #20. Or if you like to talk tiers he's bottom of my 2nd/top of my 3rd tier. 

 

That's not to say that's my final damming assessment of him either, I don't think we can say this is his ceiling yet at all. I certainly don't hope it is. My main worry as I've stated all along is you have a QB who is good enough to win enough games that panic stations don't set it, but not good enough to win enough consistently that you contend year upon year. I said it before, I don't think he's "horrible" or "awful" by any means. He's puzzling more than anything as a lot of the building blocks are there. 

 

We are 5-2, but when every game has been within one score that could as easily be 2-5. and teams that have a winning margin of 7 or less on average would tend towards 8-8 when you look at the numbers historically. There's a reason that Pythagorean expectation works for the NFL on the whole. 

 

Oddly, this season reminds me a lot of 2012. Team that was written off to start with, winning more games than expected by close margins and nail biting finishes where they held their nerve. Difference is, I think that season was more about what happened with Pagano and flashes of brilliance by Luck, because the roster was awful on the whole. 

 

This year I think we have the more complete roster and far better coaching. 

 

 

[SteelCityColt]

8 hours ago, Chloe6124 said:

Reich wasn’t pointing out though what it was for the year combined. He was talking about each individual game. He also didn’t say if he was talking just about passing or overall including rush and pass.

Please post the transcript of what he actually said... 

[SteelCityColt]

12 hours ago, EastStreet said:

 

Thanks SSC.

1. IIRC, the play that stuck out most was following a the play where JB got hit and knocked down. It was the 2nd half, pretty sure 3rd Q. I'll try to figure out specifically when it was and provide if I can. I was on the phone so not sure of the clock.

 

2. There are two plays (2 and 8, and 3rd and 8) right before the FG in the 3rd Q I'd love to see just for sheets and grins. 6ish min to go in the 3rd

 

3. The second to last series in the 4th (resulted in a punt). Two incomplete passes, one to Rogers and one to Doyle.

 

Sorry my friend, time difference delay, but it looks like @Superman did the honours so I don't want to duplicate his fine work. 

[Creekside]

5 hours ago, SteelCityColt said:

Now you’re putting words in my mouth. 
 

The point I was making that volume stats and by extension per game stats need context. Why per attempt is better IMO.

 

i said exactly the same thing when comparing the Broncos D to the Steelers. How does this fit in your narrative of “people hate Jacoby”. 

 

I never said people hate Jacoby.

 

But somehow yds per attempt became the single most important stat when judging Brisset. And I disagree with that.

 

It is strongly implied by critics that a relatively low yds per attempt (6.9) tells us that JB's game is deficient and the Colts are just getting lucky up to this point.

 

Remember in 2007 when the Chargers knocked Manning and the Colts out of the playoffs and barely lost to the Pats in the AFCC?

 

That year Rivers had a 6.9 yds per attempt on the whole year.

 

That year the Giants beat the Pats in the SB when Eli Manning had a 6.8 yds per att on the year.

 

Tom Brady has had a 6.9 ave or lower six times in his career.

 

Aaron Rogers had 6.7 as recently as 2015.

 

Matthew Stafford was less than 6.9 three of his first four years, and was 6.9 as recently as 2018.

 

Carson Wentz is 6.9 now. Is it because he stares down receivers? Lacks touch on his passes?

Can't get off his first read? Holds the ball too long? 

 

No, no, only Jacoby Brissett has these deficiencies because one and a half years into being a starting NFL QB he has a pathetic,  6.9 yds per att.

 

 

 

[SteelCityColt]

17 minutes ago, egg said:

 

I never said people hate Jacoby.

 

Shortened for neatness

 

 

 

 

I apologise for the implication that you said that. But also it's unfair to imply that people are only hanging their hat on YPA. It's one metric, an important one, but still only one. Without wider context to explain why it can be misleading. I don't think anyone has candidly said his YPA = X therefore he's terrible. It's part of the overall list of things that are of concern currently. It's part of the wider discussion which has included other things such as other metrics as well as looking into the All 22 and it's an ongoing discussion not a fait accompli .

 

To the list you supplied, a few challenges if I may. Again I'd rather look at ANY/A as it's slightly more rewards to QBs who are efficient and don't turn the ball over. But the one thing they mostly had in common was they were all snippets of a season, or part season. Goes back to the point I keep trying to make, it's not just about the here and now, it's about the long term. When you look over a "successful" QB's career (which by definition will be of decent length) their YPA & ANY/A tends to be of a certain level.  The one that is interesting is Brady, but I think that's more a reflection of how well the Pats wax/wane their offense to suit the roster. His career average is still up there with the best of them. As I said before, it's not a silver bullet metric, no one metric ever will be.

 

That plays both ways of course, it's unfair to look at the sample so far of this season and dam Brissett, which again is really not what I'm doing. 

[Creekside]

9 hours ago, Superman said:

 

I don't care about the label, average, below average, above average, whatever you want to call him, doesn't matter.

 

I'm talking about the things I think he needs to do to help the offense reach its potential. And I'm specifically offering a counter to the 'there are no open receivers' argument that came up earlier. 

 

 

Thanks for doing this. It actually helps to see how good the Colts can be if Brissett improves.

 

But has anybody actually said that there are never open receivers that JB is missing? Who would be that dumb?

 

We all know that there has to be times when he misses throws that he should attempt. And your analysis proves what we all should have known to be true. This is surely the case for every QB.

[Creekside]

23 minutes ago, SteelCityColt said:

 

I apologise for the implication that you said that. But also it's unfair to imply that people are only hanging their hat on YPA. It's one metric, an important one, but still only one. Without wider context to explain why it can be misleading. I don't think anyone has candidly said his YPA = X therefore he's terrible. It's part of the overall list of things that are of concern currently. It's part of the wider discussion which has included other things such as other metrics as well as looking into the All 22 and it's an ongoing discussion not a fait accompli .

 

To the list you supplied, a few challenges if I may. Again I'd rather look at ANY/A as it's slightly more rewards to QBs who are efficient and don't turn the ball over. But the one thing they mostly had in common was they were all snippets of a season, or part season. Goes back to the point I keep trying to make, it's not just about the here and now, it's about the long term. When you look over a "successful" QB's career (which by definition will be of decent length) their YPA & ANY/A tends to be of a certain level.  The one that is interesting is Brady, but I think that's more a reflection of how well the Pats wax/wane their offense to suit the roster. His career average is still up there with the best of them. As I said before, it's not a silver bullet metric, no one metric ever will be.

 

That plays both ways of course, it's unfair to look at the sample so far of this season and dam Brissett, which again is really not what I'm doing. 

 

No need to apologize. But thanks.

 

We are all looking for the same thing: How good is Brissett? Is he, or will he be good enough? I think by the end of the year, we'll all have a much clearer picture.

[SteelCityColt]

10 minutes ago, egg said:

 

 

Thanks for doing this. It actually helps to see how good the Colts can be if Brissett improves.

 

But has anybody actually said that there are never open receivers that JB is missing? Who would be that dumb?

 

 

You'd be surprised. 

[Superman]

38 minutes ago, egg said:

But somehow yds per attempt became the single most important stat when judging Brisset. And I disagree with that.

 

 

Not the single most important stat. Just an indicator that we're not getting big plays in the passing game. We can judge for ourselves whether that's a good thing or not, but yards/attempt is a legitimate indicator of offensive efficiency, and there are others that are relevant.

 

There have been and will continue to be good teams with pretty good offenses even though the QB isn't generating big plays downfield. But overall, QBs who continue to have lower yards/attempt are somewhat limited in their success and their longevity. I posted a stat breakdown on that a few weeks ago.

 

As a cherry picked example, you mentioned Carson Wentz. He was pretty good as a rookie, struggled in Year 3, and has had his struggles so far in Year 4. His career adjusted yards/attempt is 7.1. In Year 2, he had an MVP caliber season and his team was crushing everyone else. His adjusted yards/attempt that year was 8.3, he had a career high in TDs in just 13 games, a career high TD %, and he has not reached that height since.

 

So, MVP level Carson Wentz was very different than every other year of his career, right? And there's been a lot of questions about him outside of Year 2, including that he relies too heavily on Zach Ertz and doesn't get the ball to other receivers as effectively as the offense would like. Sound familiar?

[Creekside]

19 minutes ago, Superman said:

 

Not the single most important stat. Just an indicator that we're not getting big plays in the passing game. We can judge for ourselves whether that's a good thing or not, but yards/attempt is a legitimate indicator of offensive efficiency, and there are others that are relevant.

 

There have been and will continue to be good teams with pretty good offenses even though the QB isn't generating big plays downfield. But overall, QBs who continue to have lower yards/attempt are somewhat limited in their success and their longevity. I posted a stat breakdown on that a few weeks ago.

 

As a cherry picked example, you mentioned Carson Wentz. He was pretty good as a rookie, struggled in Year 3, and has had his struggles so far in Year 4. His career adjusted yards/attempt is 7.1. In Year 2, he had an MVP caliber season and his team was crushing everyone else. His adjusted yards/attempt that year was 8.3, he had a career high in TDs in just 13 games, a career high TD %, and he has not reached that height since.

 

So, MVP level Carson Wentz was very different than every other year of his career, right? And there's been a lot of questions about him outside of Year 2, including that he relies too heavily on Zach Ertz and doesn't get the ball to other receivers as effectively as the offense would like. Sound familiar?

 

 

Of course! I never said or even implied anything else.

 

I was only countering with my "cherry picked" examples that even good QBs can have entire seasons, and very successful seasons , with an ave per att like Brissett currently has.

 

And why "cherry pick" Wentz from my list and ignore the River's great year? And Eli Manning's SB winning year? And Rodgers? And Stafford just last year?

 

You know very well that my point is: 6.9 is not necessarily indicative of poor performance by a deficient QB.

 

And why do some assume that Brissett is stuck there at 6.9 in only the middle of his 2nd year as starter?

 

 

 

 

[hoosierhawk]

No one has been a bigger cheerleader for JB since he has been here than I have. I even was one of the 'fools' as some put it that thought we could get a 2nd or 3rd rounder if we traded him last year but because I have critiqued him on this sight I have all of the sudden become a JB hater. Kind of sad that we can't critique a player without getting that label.

WR and OL can be label as bad but don't touch JB. Why should the most important position on the field be off limits for scrutiny but other positions its ok. Every position is important but QBs are the trigger of every offense. QBs make receiver good more than receivers making QBs good. There are several examples of this. Take the Pats for example, there best receiver is Edelman who was a QB in college, Dorsett, Meyers, etc but Brady(sorry to say) gets by just fine. Gets by just fine without possible the best tight end of the decade gone. Drew Brees doesn't have a ton of all pros to throw to either. QBs make the receivers better.

I want to add that not 1 in 10,000 times could Brady make the play that JB made on the last drive. Same for most QBs in the league. Does that make JB better than Brady or most all QBs in the league?

I personally enjoy the opinions of guys who can critically break down plays and players, not to put the player down but to point out flaws in their game. Are the 'haters' of that particular play? No way. Some here say they could care less how good or bad we play but it only matters if we win. We all want to win, some of us look further down the road and critique the win and the players to try to understand if the winning ways will continue ndl what may be critical to our future.  If that makes us 'haters' so be it. I just hope that some of you with very good insight continue to post be it about JB, coaching, WRs, OL or whatever.

Go Colts!

 

[Restinpeacesweetchloe]

7 hours ago, SteelCityColt said:

Please post the transcript of what he actually said... 

I am not posting anything. If you want to hear it it’s on the colts AP.

[Superman]

4 minutes ago, egg said:

Of course! I never said or even implied anything else.

 

I was only countering with my "cherry picked" examples that even good QBs can have entire seasons, and very successful seasons , with an ave per att like Brissett currently has.

 

And why "cherry pick" Wentz from my list and ignore the River's great year? And Eli Manning's SB winning year? And Rodgers? And Stafford just last year?

 

You know very well that my point is: 6.9 is not necessarily indicative of poor performance by a deficient QB.

 

And why do some assume that Brissett is stuck there at 6.9 in only the middle of his 2nd year as starter?

 

So I think the bolded statements are strawmen. No one has suggested that good QBs don't sometimes have lower yards/attempt, or that a low yards/attempt indicates a poor performance by the QB, or that Brissett is stuck where he is and will never generate a higher yards/attempt.

 

The point related to aYPA is just that it's an indicator of offensive efficiency. Plain and simple. Not an indicator of a good or bad QB. It's 'if we want a more efficient offense, we probably need better aYPA.' And that's it.

 

But let's talk about the other QBs, if you want. Rivers had a lower aYPA in 2007. In the Chargers other two playoff games, they averaged 14.5 points/game. They scored 28 on the Colts, in part because of three Colts turnovers, and also in part because the Colts couldn't rush the passer, and Rivers aYPA in that game was nearly 15. That remains the best playoff game of his career. He's continued to be a productive and efficient QB, and only once since then has had an aYPA below 7.0.

 

Eli in 2007 wasn't exactly the standard that a winning QB aspires to live up to, right? Eli's career is kind of that of an average QB who reached some heights a few times, but has never really been a highly rated QB. When the Giants were their best, they had a strong running game and defense. Eli's career aYPA is 6.6. In the playoffs the two years they won the SB, his aYPA was 7.8 and 8.3. 

 

I don't know what you're going for with Rodgers. His career aYPA is an incredible 8.4. In 2015 it was 7.1, the lowest it's ever been, and that was the year Jordy Nelson got hurt, and when Rodgers started getting criticism for being a little too judicious with the ball to avoid INTs. His TD% went down, his passer rating went down, his sacks went up. 

 

The Lions won 6 games last year, they were 25th in scoring, and Stafford missed 4,000 yards for the first time in his career. His TD% was way down, yards/game way down. Not a great example. And how would you characterize Stafford? Slightly above average? If you have a great roster and you can pick a QB, how many do you choose before Stafford? 

 

I hope this isn't coming across as argumentative. And the big takeaway from this should be that anecdotal evidence doesn't trump statistical evidence. You can find good QBs or teams with good seasons where the aYPA isn't impressive, but overwhelmingly, the list of good QBs on good teams with low aYPA (below 7.0) is pretty short. The list of QBs with a low YPA is kind of depressing. 

 

Again, the point is just that there's a correlation between YPA and efficient offense.

[SteelCityColt]

Just now, Chloe6124 said:

I am not posting anything. If you want to hear it it’s on the colts AP.

Well that’s a constructive way to discuss things. Some of us can’t get audio.

[stitches]

33 minutes ago, SteelCityColt said:

Well that’s a constructive way to discuss things. Some of us can’t get audio.

 

Question by a viewer/listener: Is yards per attempt a meaningful stat by itself or does offensive philosophy matter more? [my note, kind of a weird question with the juxtaposition chosen here] 

Reich: "No, I do think yards per attempt is a meaninful stat and it's something I've always looked at and you know, over the course of the 16 game season. And what's really meaningful about it is - if you really want to put in what I think is the best context - look at yards per attempt within the game itself. Did you have more yards per attempt than your opponent that day. That's really all that matters. Usually... I don't know what the percentages are, but I know it's near 70s, maybe close to 80, that usually when you have higher yards per attempt than your opponent, you win a lot of football games. "

[Fisticuffs111]

9 hours ago, SteelCityColt said:

Oddly, this season reminds me a lot of 2012. Team that was written off to start with, winning more games than expected by close margins and nail biting finishes where they held their nerve. Difference is, I think that season was more about what happened with Pagano and flashes of brilliance by Luck, because the roster was awful on the whole. 

 

This year I think we have the more complete roster and far better coaching. 

I've also had that same thought, although it's kind of in relation to how I felt about the latter years in Pagano's tenure, particularly how I feel after wins. Just like how I felt after our constant 4th quarter comebacks/putting everything on Luck's shoulders, after most of our wins this year I keep wondering if winning this way is really sustainable. Which kind of goes along with what you point out about such a small point differential usually leading to 8-8 seasons. 

And I know people point out that how we're winning right now, that's how you win in the playoffs. Which, yeah, it comes down to that sometimes. But the teams that have won that way in the playoffs, let's say the Pats for instance, don't solely rely on winning those close gutty wins throughout the regular season. Even in '01, they won several games by more than a score.

[SteelCityColt]

57 minutes ago, stitches said:

 

Question by a viewer/listener: Is yards per attempt a meaningful stat by itself or does offensive philosophy matter more? [my note, kind of a weird question with the juxtaposition chosen here] 

Reich: "No, I do think yards per attempt is a meaninful stat and it's something I've always looked at and you know, over the course of the 16 game season. And what's really meaningful about it is - if you really want to put in what I think is the best context - look at yards per attempt within the game itself. Did you have more yards per attempt than your opponent that day. That's really all that matters. Usually... I don't know what the percentages are, but I know it's near 70s, maybe close to 80, that usually when you have higher yards per attempt than your opponent, you win a lot of football games. "

 

I this is all fairly logical, so he agrees it's a meaningful stat and yes generally you move the ball further and more efficiently that the other team you'll win. So why is it anathema to some to look with concern at Brissett's YPA?

Sure it's not the total component of the offense, but it's a big part, and crucially the passing game is where you get the majority of your chunk plays on normal teams. 

 

Let's take a look at least year by team for Y/Play and there is a fair correlation that the better teams have better Y/P. Makes logical sense, although you have oddities such as the Bucs & Ravens  in there, a product as Reich alludes to of on the day match ups going your way.. I think you also need to look at the % of drives ending in a score. We also have a nice metric expected points calculated from all this (See here: https://tinyurl.com/y2vna8te):

 

https://tinyurl.com/y5l3fbp5

 

So let's have a look at this season... 

 

https://tinyurl.com/yy24o7pm

 

We can see the Colts have dropped down from 10th to 22nd overall in Y/P but the rushing game has remained consistent at 4.2 Y/A. So for all the talk of well we have more of a running game now, it's as efficient currently as last year. We have run it more with about 30.8 attempts per game this year to 25.5 per game last year.

 

Therein lies the worry about low YPA in the passing game. When you're running it more, you're not going to move the ball as far, and the 1STD% for this season to last is about the same too so it's not like we're making more 1st downs on ground. We need to throw it at some point, and at some point those need to be chunk plays, because that's how the average increases. 

 

Let's ask it another way, do you think it's good that the Colts are a below league average team when it come to Y/Play? Is this indicative of an offense that will be successful long term?

 

But we're 5-2, so we must be good right? It's somewhat odd 3 of the 5 teams we've beat are in the top 10 to Y/P. Well according to Reich if you lost the Y/P in a game you're 70-80% likely to lose the game. Against Atl (8.1 to 7.1), KC (9.1 vs 5.1), Hou (8.3 vs 7.4) we did exactly that. That says to me that's not a sustainable way to win football games. One score games can go either way as we well know, especially if you're losing on Y/P.

 

TLDR

Y/Play is important

Our Rushing is as good as last year

Our passing has pushed our Y/P way down

Reich says you need to win the Y/P in a game to stand a good chance of winning

We're winning games despite losing Y/P, it's not long term sustainable, could as easily be 2-5.

 

THIS is why Y/A is important for the QB.

[stitches]

7 minutes ago, SteelCityColt said:

 

TLDR

Y/Play is important

Our Rushing is as good as last year

Our passing has pushed our Y/P way down

Reich says you need to win the Y/P in a game to stand a good chance of winning

We're winning games despite this, it's not long term sustainable. 

 

THIS is why Y/A is important for the QB.

 

Good summary. 

[EastStreet]

9 hours ago, SteelCityColt said:

 

Sorry my friend, time difference delay, but it looks like @Superman did the honours so I don't want to duplicate his fine work. 

 

No worries, thanks to both you and  @Superman . Truly appreciate it.

 

Quick question on all22 (I'm thinking about getting it). Can you easily look at all targets or all snaps for one WR per game or season without running through everything? I particularly interested in looking at Campbell's and Cain's.

[Jdubu]

On 10/28/2019 at 10:24 AM, stitches said:

Yeah, Frank was not good yesterday. I absolutely thought the same thing on the first drive. Why the hell would he let his offense play vs HOU last week in his own side of the field and not in this situation vs the Broncos when the field goal was very far from a sure thing to begin with? I didn't want to admit it here, but I absolutely thought to myself before the FG - Frank deserves for Vinny to miss it here. It's this bad of a call. 

 

I also hated how Frank ended the game. After the horsecollar tackle we had 1:30. He tried advancing the ball once on the Brissett bootleg that lost a couple of yards and then he pretty much gave up with 1:12 on the clock, ran a run up the middle and then wasted the rest of the time trying to drain the clock and was content getting the field goal for a kicker that has just missed a PAT and a similar field goal, instead of trying to win some more yardage to either score a TD or make the FG much easier. He pretty much did what Nagy is getting killed for, but the only difference is our kicker made the FG and we won and theirs didn't and they lost.

 

I also agree about his playcalling on 2nd down. He's been calling more and more predictable runs on second and long and it's killing us. It's kind of heroic of Brissett and the offense in general that they have even this level of success on 3d and 4th down having in mind in how bad of a situation we are on a lot of those 3d downs(long 3d downs). I have my suspicion about the reason but people here won't like it so I'm gonna spare this for now until it becomes obvious down the road or becomes dispelled by Reich's decisions in future games. 

A lot of valid points here. I was bipolar on the first FG attempt. At first, I was thinking they would definitely be going for it and when they didn’t, my first response was WTH and then I thought well, recall last year when they didn’t take the easy points of the FG and lost that game and the lost game chatter was he should have taken the FG knowing it would be a low scoring affair and you take all the points you can get. I gave him the pass on that thinking this game was gonna be low scoring, which it was. I had no thought that Vinny would miss that but ukkkkkk, he was ugly early. 
 

as for the conservative calls at the last series to take the long FG, now that was playing with fire. I don’t understand Reich and the aggressive/non aggressive calling during games but he has us at 5-2, I’d still like to stay real aggressive to mildly aggressive at all times. Mitigate your risky areas but stay aggressive. 

On 10/28/2019 at 10:48 AM, Nickster said:

 

I thought the same on the missed FG.  Only thing I could think of is that he knew that it would be a low scoring affair and all points are good points, but 4th and 1 there seemed pretty obvious to me.

 

Agree on end game thing.  Agree on 2nd down.  

 

But I really think JBs limitations dictate a lot of what Frank thinks he can do in a game.

Agree!!

[Superman]

44 minutes ago, EastStreet said:

 

No worries, thanks to both you and  @Superman . Truly appreciate it.

 

Quick question on all22 (I'm thinking about getting it). Can you easily look at all targets or all snaps for one WR per game or season without running through everything? I particularly interested in looking at Campbell's and Cain's.

 

While viewing the film from a game, you can view the summary of each play, and view that specific play. But there's no way to filter by play type, result, etc. That's advanced stuff that teams break down for themselves. I'd love to get my hands on it, but that's not gonna happen.

[Superman]

One attempt longer than 20 yards on Sunday, on "the play." 

 

https://nextgenstats.nfl.com/charts/player/2019/jacoby-brissett/BRI516391/2019/8/pass

[OffensivelyPC]

5 minutes ago, Superman said:

One attempt longer than 20 yards on Sunday, on "the play." 

 

https://nextgenstats.nfl.com/charts/player/2019/jacoby-brissett/BRI516391/2019/8/pass

Seems to me that most of his longer completions are on busted plays or at least forced out of the pocket.

[stitches]

24 minutes ago, Superman said:

One attempt longer than 20 yards on Sunday, on "the play." 

 

https://nextgenstats.nfl.com/charts/player/2019/jacoby-brissett/BRI516391/2019/8/pass

This is a regular occurrence. Just go back through the weeks. 

 

Week 1 - 2 throws over 20 yards, both incomplete

Week 2 - 1 throw over 20 yards, incomplete

Week 3 - 2 throws over 20 yards, both completed

Week 4 - 7 throws over 20 yards, 6 of them incomplete (this is the Oakland game where we were trailing a ton and we actually needed to throw a lot)

Week 5 - no throws over 20... only 1 over 15

Week 7 - 5 throws over 20, 3 of them incomplete(this was his best game vs HOU)

Week 8 - 1 throw over 20, "the play"

 

So right now on throws over 20 yards Brissett is 6/18 on throws over 20 yards. 

[OffensivelyPC]

12 minutes ago, stitches said:

This is a regular occurrence. Just go back through the weeks. 

 

Week 1 - 2 throws over 20 yards, both incomplete

Week 2 - 1 throw over 20 yards, incomplete

Week 3 - 2 throws over 20 yards, both completed

Week 4 - 7 throws over 20 yards, 6 of them incomplete (this is the Oakland game where we were trailing a ton and we actually needed to throw a lot)

Week 5 - no throws over 20... only 1 over 15

Week 7 - 5 throws over 20, 3 of them incomplete(this was his best game vs HOU)

Week 8 - 1 throw over 20, "the play"

 

So right now on throws over 20 yards Brissett is 6/18 on throws over 20 yards. 

Curious how many of these occur after Brissett is forced out of the pocket.  As I opined above, I feel like most of his longer passes occur when he's on the run.

[stitches]

21 minutes ago, OffensivelyPC said:

Curious how many of these occur after Brissett is forced out of the pocket.  As I opined above, I feel like most of his longer passes occur when he's on the run.

I don't know how to find them. The only completion in the Oakland game was the TD to Ebron, which was out of the pocket... :

 

One of the completions to TY in the HOU game is from within the pocket(0:55), the second one  to Ebron he stepped into the pocket and threw after the pocket was washed away... not sure if this counts as within the pocket or out(2:25):

 

Against Atlanta the two completions(inside the pocket to TY 0:35 and 2:13 to Ebron, again inside the pocket):

 

 

 

Seems like a mixed bag. 

[EastStreet]

1 hour ago, Superman said:

 

While viewing the film from a game, you can view the summary of each play, and view that specific play. But there's no way to filter by play type, result, etc. That's advanced stuff that teams break down for themselves. I'd love to get my hands on it, but that's not gonna happen.

 

Thank you! I was hoping to quickly look at all snaps per WR. Or at least all targets to a specific WR. That would be phenomenal.  Also wanted to see certain players on D in certain positions. One thing that peaked my interest is Okereke getting snaps last week at SAM. I've been calling for that, and very interested in how the experiment went. 

[OffensivelyPC]

3 minutes ago, stitches said:

I don't know how to find them. The only completion in the Oakland game was the TD to Ebron, which was out of the pocket... :

 

 

 

Maybe we can get one of the All 22 folks here to do a film check.  I'd get the All 22, I do not have the time to do it with any sort of regularity.  But you found 18 and so far, and the one Sunday and the one you found, indicate that might the case.