Risk of Bust at Pick 6

[DougDew]

For all of the discussion about who the Colts should pick, absent in the discussion is the possibility that some of the elite players might not live up to the high pick.  So from this angle, which of the top 10 or so players that the Colts might pick at 6 run the biggest risk of busting (not being the elite player)?  

 

My personal choices are Fitzpatrick and Chubb.

[Dingus McGirt]

Chubb.

[chad72]

Fitzpatrick and Edmunds.

 

[aaron11]

chubb is too good physically to be a total bust, but he may not be elite

 

if you have to have an elite player, then nelson is probably the safest pick in the draft

[shasta519]

Nelson

 

[Str8himalaya]

IMO I would say it is Chubb and Ward. I think Chubb has a high floor, he will be a very solid player but IMO does have a decent possibility to not turn into an elite player. Ward is my number one bust prospect in the top 10. I say this because his film isn't as good as either Lattimore or Conley last year (both went later than top 10 last year) and he doesn't have great size for his position. Just my opinion and observation, I would say Edmunds as well but I think if you draft him you already know that you are getting a freak athlete with a ton of potential but hasn't quite put it all together to completely dominate. 

[jameszeigler834]

3 hours ago, Dingus McGirt said:

Chubb.

Ward.

[WarGhost21]

31 minutes ago, shastamasta said:

Nelson

 

Nelson is the safest prospect in this draft. He is the can’t-miss prospect of all can’t-miss prospects. 

 

To answer the OP, I feel that if any player we would take at 6 doesn’t get ROTY, half the forum would already start considering them a bust because that’s just how this forum works. Of course, the rational ones would realize it’s year one, but there will be those people. To answer which player has the most bust potential, I’d say Fitzpatrick, because he wouldn’t fit our scheme with Hooker already in the fold.

[shasta519]

4 minutes ago, WarGhost21 said:

Nelson is the safest prospect in this draft. He is the can’t-miss prospect of all can’t-miss prospects. 

 

To answer the OP, I feel that if any player we would take at 6 doesn’t get ROTY, half the forum would already start considering them a bust because that’s just how this forum works. Of course, the rational ones would realize it’s year one, but there will be those people. To answer which player has the most bust potential, I’d say Fitzpatrick, because he wouldn’t fit our scheme with Hooker already in the fold.

 

I just said that to ruffle some feathers. I don't really believe that. But it's definitely not impossible. Warmack was a can't-miss as well.

 

[mds]

Anyone not named Barkley or Nelson. Those two have the highest floor of their positions and would be the safest picks to become ‘elite’ on this side of the draft. 

 

Of course, there will be many more that become ‘elite’ from this draft. 

[John Hammonds]

I would think that Fitzpatrick has the greatest chance.  He's very good at a lot of things, but not off-the-charts great at anything.  And it's always a mini red flag to me when a player comes into the draft having played a variety of positions without developing his game at any one of them.  Don't get me wrong - I like the guy, and he's on my "My Guys" list.  But I would be a little nervous if he wound up having to be our pick because Nelson, Barkley, and Chubb were gone.

[gacker65]

Edmund

[crazycolt1]

I am not too sure about who the Colts pick but I can foresee a couple of bust in these so called elite QBs who are projected going in the 1st round.

[Luck 4 president]

Edmonds and Barkley outside the QBs of course

[DougDew]

6 hours ago, shastamasta said:

Nelson

 

While he has a high floor, I'm not exactly sure what he can do to be elite and separate himself significantly from the Gs who are just very good.  Never give up a sack?  Pancake his opponent 80% of the time?  

 

I guess making the pro-bowl for ten years straight would qualify.

[coltsfansince65]

Roquan Smith

[crazycolt1]

44 minutes ago, DougDew said:

While he has a high floor, I'm not exactly sure what he can do to be elite and separate himself significantly from the Gs who are just very good.  Never give up a sack?  Pancake his opponent 80% of the time?  

 

I guess making the pro-bowl for ten years straight would qualify.

Making the pro bowl has nothing to do with anything.

Kelly played better than the two centers voted to the pro bowl his rookie season.  The pro bowl has never been about putting the best players in it.

Protecting Luck has to be the #1 priority. If there is one thing we learned over the last couple of years is we don't win games without him on the field.

[DougDew]

2 minutes ago, crazycolt1 said:

Making the pro bowl has nothing to do with anything.

Kelly played better than the two centers voted to the pro bowl his rookie season.  The pro bowl has never been about putting the best players in it.

Protecting Luck has to be the #1 priority. If there is one thing we learned over the last couple of years is we don't win games without him on the field.

Yeah I understand the probowl voting isn't always reflective.  I guess the proper way to measure an Olineman is by the grades given out, but those aren't often published as visibly and can be judgmental as well. 

 

Just trying to quantify how a G can be determined to be elite rather than simply very good and steady.  I think other positions lend themselves better to that comparison.

[2006Coltsbestever]

7 hours ago, shastamasta said:

Nelson

 

If Nelson is a bust, I will do a Nestea plunge in my mom's creek in a speedo. He has Larry Allen written all over him! Regarding the OP's Post, I say Chubb and Ward both could bust. I like Edmunds.

[crazycolt1]

8 minutes ago, DougDew said:

Yeah I understand the probowl voting isn't always reflective.  I guess the proper way to measure an Olineman is by the grades given out, but those aren't often published as visibly and can be judgmental as well. 

 

Just trying to quantify how a G can be determined to be elite rather than simply very good and steady.  I think other positions lend themselves better to that comparison.

The thing about linemen is they are not considered a position that is coveted by fans. The only time you hear their name is when a penalty is called on them.

It don't work like that with coaches and players. They know nothing happens without the linemen's play. The better the line, the better the team is.

[Hoose]

Fitz or Ward. Nelson is as safe as it gets. So is Barkley. Chubb is being heralded as a great pass rusher, and we all know that story. Many just don’t pan out. So Chubb could be added to that group. But Fitz and Ward are my choices to bust. Here’s hoping the Colts go elsewhere. 

[Shadow_Creek]

10 hours ago, DougDew said:

For all of the discussion about who the Colts should pick, absent in the discussion is the possibility that some of the elite players might not live up to the high pick.  So from this angle, which of the top 10 or so players that the Colts might pick at 6 run the biggest risk of busting (not being the elite player)?  

 

My personal choices are Fitzpatrick and Chubb.

i see what point your trying to make however. You really cant call a player a bust because it all depends on the system or coaching staff they play under. Take for instant Reggie Bush a player who was really promising coming out of USC but never brought that barry sanders like running style in the NFL. Now had a team like the cowboys picked him up maybe we would have witness those abilities his rookie year. Also look at jerry Hughes another example of a player we let go that thrived in the buffalo system. 

[AZColt11]

I would say any of them.  The draft is a crapshoot most of the time.  Overall, it's one of the QB's.  Take your pick.  From the Colts' only perspective, probably Chubb, although I'd still take him.  I'm not sure he's an "elite" pass-rusher, but I think he's pretty good and is complete because of his run-stopping prowess.  Some pass-rushers are very good at that but not so good against the run.  Chubb can do it all even if he's not elite in just pass-rush.  And he did break Mario Williams' sack record. 

 

I'd say the SAFEST in the draft is probably Nelson, and I would be glad to have him no matter where he would be picked.

[DougDew]

8 hours ago, crazycolt1 said:

The thing about linemen is they are not considered a position that is coveted by fans. The only time you hear their name is when a penalty is called on them.

It don't work like that with coaches and players. They know nothing happens without the linemen's play. The better the line, the better the team is.

Yes.  I know how football works.  What I don't know is what unit of measure would be used to distinguish an elite G from a very good G.  Do you know ?

[DougDew]

7 hours ago, Shadow_Creek said:

i see what point your trying to make however. You really cant call a player a bust because it all depends on the system or coaching staff they play under. Take for instant Reggie Bush a player who was really promising coming out of USC but never brought that barry sanders like running style in the NFL. Now had a team like the cowboys picked him up maybe we would have witness those abilities his rookie year. Also look at jerry Hughes another example of a player we let go that thrived in the buffalo system. 

But wouldn't a truly elite player succeed in any system?  By definition, an elite player isn't a system player.  Bush was a bust because he had limitations and whoever drafted him didn't see them.