National title game is why you can't take Barkley 3rd

[UKColt13]

7 hours ago, lance_m8 said:

Please everyone who want Barkley answer this for me. What does he fix for us on this team? He would be a great playmaker but he would have no line in front of him at all he would have to go Superstar mode to avg 3.5 YPC

 

We can make the line a whole lot better by signing Norwell/Pugh or even both if we want to throw money at them in FA. We have the 3rd pick in the 2nd round too so we can select another Olineman there.

 

I'm not commenting on the likelihood of the scenarios but there are ways we could fix the line, draft an elite level RB, get Luck back back healthy, find an OC that can use Mack effectively, and have a top 5 offense next year.

 

I agree the priority is Oline this year (finally protect #12). But there are ways of doing that that don't include using a #3 pick on a G. Right now the pick is wide open. I wouldn't rule out Minkah Fitzpatrick at #3 either. Dude is good.

[Str8himalaya]

Bottom line is, we must improve the offensive line pretty dramatically before we even think about adding a talent like Barkley. You could have put David Johnson or L. Bell behind our offensive line last year and it would have still be tough going for them. Now, like was said above, if Ballard isn't messing around and gets Norwell (which I think will probably be franchised) or another OL guy that can play, then sure, Barkley is on the table. I prefer Chubb at 3 for a lot of the reasons stated above. Kamara and Hunt both came out in later rounds last year and lit it up. Add in a healthy (hopefully) Luck and we will be just fine on offense IF we can pick up some pieces on the offensive line. 

 

Depending on the coaching staff, if we went to a 4-3, Chubb would be an excellent fit for us and would help us solve our pass rushing opportunities. I really like the idea of going to a Seattle type defense with Hooker playing the Earl Thomas role and fitting in the pieces around him (just like Seattle did with Sherman and Chancellor). Our offense has been good prior to this year and we still ended up 8-8. We have to get better balance and last off-season helped, but this off-season we have a prime chance to add a lot of talent through FA and the draft. Can't screw the #3 pick up!

[oldunclemark]

I dont think theres any way that we, or anyone else, takes a running back with the 3rd pick in the NFL draft.

RBs just don't last very long. Pick a guy who can play 10 years

Edited January 9, 2018 by oldunclemark

[shakedownstreet]

A star RB sounds like a fun toy. I remember very well what a rookie Edgerrin James was to the offense in '99.

 

Seems like pass rusher is the responsible pick though

[akcolt]

7 hours ago, lance_m8 said:

Please everyone who want Barkley answer this for me. What does he fix for us on this team? He would be a great playmaker but he would have no line in front of him at all he would have to go Superstar mode to avg 3.5 YPC

You do realize we will do more then just get one guy from the draft? We could take Barkley and fix the OL later in the draft and in FA. We would be able to address ILB in the draft WR2 in FA etc. The point being we can draft Barkley and still check the other boxes. You do realize Frank Gore was 12th in the NFL in rushing this season and averaged over 3.5 ypc? 

 

If Barkley runs like he is supposed to at the combine he will be the best RB prospect in recent memory. A RB that's 230 lbs runs a 4.3 40 and has the wiggle he possesses is rare. That's not taking into consideration his receiving skills or KO return ability. The guy is Reggie Bush in the open field there really hasn't been anyone like him.  He will be difficult to pass on and very well could be the selection if we stay at #3 

 

It will be difficult to find an Edge that can really get after the QB beyond the 1st round. I personally would take Chubb if he checks out or drop back accumulate picks and take Key, Laundry or the pass rusher Ballard identifies. Then we could add a RB later I like Penny, Michel Freeman or Chubb. The RB class is a deep again but Barkley has all the makings of a great one. He's never been injured and has the ideal size to for a long career. 

[coltsfeva]

8 hours ago, Jared Cisneros said:

I agree. Hoping we can trade back with the Jets, pick up a second round pick+, and still get Nelson. That would give us a ton of ammo in this draft to build a competitive team if Luck returns as well, and possibly a new offensive line that isn't overmatched.

  If the Colts can trade to 6, and still get Chubb and in 2nd round get a starting  Olineman and playmaker at ILB, that would be ideal. Who really knows, at this point ?

[GusFring]

2 hours ago, crazycolt1 said:

IMO Barkley don't make it to 3rd.  I think the Giants take him at 2. The Giants didn't even have a RB that would make another teams roster last year.  Add the fact that Mara has already said he wanted Eli to be his starter next season.

Could Mara been sending a smoke screen? Maybe, maybe not.

If they pass on Rosen, they're *. He's a more athletic version of Eli.

[Deadpool]

Hate to say this, but not many RB's who have come out of Bama have faired well in the NFL.......

 

Recent RB's being Glenn Coffey, TRich, Yeldon, Lacey and Ingram.  

 

Glenn Coffey retired after a year or two in the NFL

 

TRich as we all had to witness was a complete bust.....BUT hey he is killing it in the CFL

 

Yeldon started out decent but has since fell to 3rd on the depth chart and really hasn't been anything but average at best.

 

Lacey started his career good, but has fell off completely. 

 

The only RB so far who has been any good has been Ingram, and between him and Kamara have made a pretty good duo in NOLA. 

 

 

**EDIT** 

I totally forgot about Derrick Henry. I apologize for that! but yeah he has done good also this year. lol. 

 

 

My point is I don't trust running backs coming out of Bama. I'd rather take the safe pick and go with Barkley. but honestly i would rather see us trade down and take an offensive lineman or draft a defensive player with the 3rd pick in the first round, and draft Rashaad Penny from San Diego State, or Bryce Love from Stanford in the second round. But I won't be mad if we do take Barkley. I think him and Luck could be the new version of Manning/James, or Luck/Barkley/Hilton being the new version of Manning/James/Harrison

[Yoshinator]

1 minute ago, coltsfeva said:

  If the Colts can trade to 6, and still get Chubb and in 2nd round get a starting  Olineman and playmaker at ILB, that would be ideal. Who really knows, at this point ?

I would take Chubb at six 100% of the time. You are right, there is a long way to go. Combines, pro days, interviews. A lot can happen to raise or lower these players draft position. I'm going to start doing some film work on a few players today. Probably Chubb, Bradley, and Barkley to see who I prefer the most and if I think any of the 3 have bust potential.

[Yoshinator]

Just now, Deadpool said:

Hate to say this, but not many RB's who have come out of Bama have faired well in the NFL.......

 

Recent RB's being Glenn Coffey, TRich, Yeldon, Lacey and Ingram.  

 

Glenn Coffey retired after a year or two in the NFL

 

TRich as we all had to witness was a complete bust.....BUT hey he is killing it in the CFL

 

Yeldon started out decent but has since fell to 3rd on the depth chart and really hasn't been anything but average at best.

 

Lacey started his career good, but has fell off completely. 

 

The only RB so far who has been any good has been Ingram, and between him and Kamara have made a pretty good duo in NOLA. 

 

 

My point is I don't trust running backs coming out of Bama. I'd rather take the safe pick and go with Barkley. but honestly i would rather see us trade down and take an offensive lineman or draft a defensive player with the 3rd pick in the first round, and draft Rashaad Penny from San Diego State, or Bryce Love from Stanford in the second round. But I won't be mad if we do take Barkley. I think him and Luck could be the new version of Manning/James, or Luck/Barkley/Hilton being the new version of Manning/James/Harrison

Mark Ingram has fared well on the Saints. You are very misinformed there. I do agree that their line makes the RB look better on the Tide though. You just have to do your homework and can't stereotype. That causes you to miss great talent and is an amateur GM mistake.

[twfish]

9 hours ago, Jared Cisneros said:

A guy like Barkley comes around nearly every year. Fournette, Gurley and Elliott in the last 3 years are 3 that come to mind. There's 1 every year. Barkley isn't any better than them.

I highly disagree. Elliot went from being a late first to 4th overall and Barkley has been talked about as a top pick since last year. He's easily a better prospect then the ones you mentioned. Besides you can easily see the impact the guys you listed have on their team

[Deadpool]

Just now, Jared Cisneros said:

Mark Ingram has fared well on the Saints. You are very misinformed there. I do agree that their line makes the RB look better on the Tide though. You just have to do your homework and can't stereotype. That causes you to miss great talent and is an amateur GM mistake.

you must not have read the part where I said the only RB's who have done good coming out of bama was Ingram and Henry? 

[Smonroe]

I don't have time to read the thread, but I guess the OP is saying we need to move up to 1 or 2 to take Barkley?

 

I'm not sure I agree with that, he should be there at 3.

[Yoshinator]

Just now, twfish said:

I highly disagree. Elliot went from being a late first to 4th overall and Barkley has been talked about as a top pick since last year. He's easily a better prospect then the ones you mentioned. Besides you can easily see the impact the guys you listed have on their team

Like I said, there's a top RB every year that is a "generational" back. Just last year: Fournette, Kamara, Hunt, and even McCaffrey to an extent were all very good. This is another excellent RB class this year. I would bet money that Barkley is either on par or worse than the guys I mentioned, especially Gurley. The media always talks an RB up early in the draft, then one in a round or two later turns out to be just as good. We just don't know who yet. Don't buy it on Barkley yet, maybe I will when I watch tape of him today. As of now, I don't even think he could be really good behind our O-Line without some solid upgrades, and that's hard to do if you use your 1st round pick on an RB.

[Yoshinator]

5 minutes ago, Deadpool said:

you must not have read the part where I said the only RB's who have done good coming out of bama was Ingram and Henry? 

My apologies, I missed that sentence somehow. Doing about 5 things at once currently.

[Shadow_Creek]

8 hours ago, lance_m8 said:

Please everyone who want Barkley answer this for me. What does he fix for us on this team? He would be a great playmaker but he would have no line in front of him at all he would have to go Superstar mode to avg 3.5 YPC

the great Barry didn't have a line or a good QB in Detroit and how many yards did he get..? just saying

[JMichael557]

8 hours ago, lance_m8 said:

Please everyone who want Barkley answer this for me. What does he fix for us on this team? He would be a great playmaker but he would have no line in front of him at all he would have to go Superstar mode to avg 3.5 YPC

 

This is what a great back does. The defense has to gameplan for the back. This affects what they can do on defense. It affects pass rush because if you overrun a lane and it a draw then you get hit for a big play. LBers who respect the run cannot drop into coverage leaving better passing lanes. Also a great back can pick up blitzing linemen or swing out of the backfield to catch a pass also trying up LBers. This is just a few things that a great back does over a good or average back. 

[JMichael557]

I am starting to like Smith over Chubb based on athletic talent. 

 

I would take Conner Williams over Nelson. Most mocks have Williams over Nelson because Williams is a Tackle. 

[Yoshinator]

1 minute ago, Shadow_Creek said:

the great Barry didn't have a line or a good QB in Detroit and how many yards did he get..? just saying

Please don't compare Saquon Barkley to possibly the greatest RB of all time. Odds are Barkley won't even be as good as Todd Gurley, let alone Barry Sanders.

[Yoshinator]

5 minutes ago, JMichael557 said:

 

This is what a great back does. The defense has to gameplan for the back. This affects what they can do on defense. It affects pass rush because if you overrun a lane and it a draw then you get hit for a big play. LBers who respect the run cannot drop into coverage leaving better passing lanes. Also a great back can pick up blitzing linemen or swing out of the backfield to catch a pass also trying up LBers. This is just a few things that a great back does over a good or average back. 

There's also a difference between run blocking and pass blocking. If you are bad at one or both, it's extremely easy to gameplan for the offense. We have to fix the line or else Barkley wouldn't even have much of an effect on the team besides opening up the pass game for Andrew Luck (in which case he would still get sacked because of the poor pass blocking).

[aaron11]

i wouldnt draft barkley if chubb is there, but i am worried our running game will suck next year

[Yoshinator]

1 minute ago, aaron11 said:

i wouldnt draft barkley if chubb is there, but i am worried our running game will suck next year

The RB class is really good again this year. Also look at last year. Fournette, McCaffrey, Kamart, Hunt. There were some really good RBs drafted and not all in the first round. You don't have to take Barkley to get a stud, you just have to hit on an RB and a lot of the problem is solved, even if it's a timeshare with Mack. RB is literally the easiest position to hit on in the later rounds.

[BR-549]

8 hours ago, lance_m8 said:

He would be a great playmaker

I am not advocating for Barkley, but ask yourself how many of these ^^^ we currently have.

[aaron11]

3 minutes ago, Jared Cisneros said:

The RB class is really good again this year. Also look at last year. Fournette, McCaffrey, Kamart, Hunt. There were some really good RBs drafted and not all in the first round. You don't have to take Barkley to get a stud, you just have to hit on an RB and a lot of the problem is solved, even if it's a timeshare with Mack. RB is literally the easiest position to hit on in the later rounds.

we have tried late round backs many times and none of them ever did much

 

the best we have had in indy were all first round picks.  i do like mack, but how many yards per year do we think he is good for?

[Yoshinator]

1 minute ago, aaron11 said:

we have tried late round backs many times and none of them ever did much

 

the best we have had in indy were all first round picks.  i do like mack, but how many yards per year do we think he is good for?

That's Grigson's and Ballard's fault for missing. Lots of good RB's have come from the mid-rounds. Teams like the Ravens and Dolphins have hit on a bunch of them. Jordan Howard was a 5th round pick. Kareem Hunt is a 3rd round pick. They are always there. Do you think we have a better chance of getting an O-Lineman or pass rusher in the mid-rounds? You get guys like Jonathon Newsome and Joe Haeg there. RB has a history of starters at all times from everywhere in the draft. You have to take advantage of that as a GM, and I'd rather get an O-Lineman or Chubb in the 1st.

[aaron11]

1 minute ago, Jared Cisneros said:

That's Grigson's and Ballard's fault for missing. Lots of good RB's have come from the mid-rounds. Teams like the Ravens and Dolphins have hit on a bunch of them. Jordan Howard was a 5th round pick. Kareem Hunt is a 3rd round pick. They are always there. Do you think we have a better chance of getting an O-Lineman or pass rusher in the mid-rounds? You get guys like Jonathon Newsome and Joe Haeg there. RB has a history of starters at all times from everywhere in the draft. You have to take advantage of that as a GM, and I'd rather get an O-Lineman or Chubb in the 1st.

i do remember a lot of people here wanting hunt last year.  i was a fan too, but most of the mocks here had us getting him in the 4th.  we might have to step up a little more than that 

[NannyMcafee]

3 hours ago, crazycolt1 said:

IMO Barkley don't make it to 3rd.  I think the Giants take him at 2. The Giants didn't even have a RB that would make another teams roster last year.  Add the fact that Mara has already said he wanted Eli to be his starter next season.

Could Mara been sending a smoke screen? Maybe, maybe not.

 

Mid the giants take Barkley then the 3rd pick just got that much more valuable 

[Dingus McGirt]

10 hours ago, GusFring said:

Look at all of the capable runningbacks. 

Look at those massive, collegiate, offensive lines they are running behind.

[Defjamz26]

I will never understand this line of thinking that just because of a few outliers like Hunt, Howard, and Johnson, that it’s a 100% guarantee that you can get a high level RB later. You don’t pass up on an elite talent at any position because you THINK you can get just as good later. That is terrible drafting. You always take the elite prospect and best player when you pick. You guys saying otherwise are disillusioned. There’s no RB in this draft that on a team with a good OL, and a good OC will out produce Barkley at the next level. No one else has 4.3 speed at 230 pounds mixed with elite receiving ability and uniquely powerful lower half.

[dgambill]

2 hours ago, lollygagger8 said:

I think Ballard trades down (with maybe Jets or another QB hungry team) and accumulates picks. 

 

If he doesn't trade down, he picks Chubb.

I think that is where he is headed. He might trade back and take any of some of these guys...or more than 1 depending what we get back. I saw 4 players tonight that stood out to me and I would be happy taking them...some how any how. Fitzpatrick and Da'ron Payne....Payne was  unblockable...nobody could stop him all game and Minkah created havoc all year and has played all over the secondary. R. Smith was beasting once again and Sony Mikel looks truly special. His body control and the way he runs behind his pads....to me he has that extra gear too. Some of the holes he squeezed through last night it was impressive. He is 5/11 and 222...so he isn't small...definitely a back to look out for in rd2 or later.

[akcolt]

12 minutes ago, Jared Cisneros said:

That's Grigson's and Ballard's fault for missing. Lots of good RB's have come from the mid-rounds. Teams like the Ravens and Dolphins have hit on a bunch of them. Jordan Howard was a 5th round pick. Kareem Hunt is a 3rd round pick. They are always there. Do you think we have a better chance of getting an O-Lineman or pass rusher in the mid-rounds? You get guys like Jonathon Newsome and Joe Haeg there. RB has a history of starters at all times from everywhere in the draft. You have to take advantage of that as a GM, and I'd rather get an O-Lineman or Chubb in the 1st.

Ballard missing on RB's how so? He has only had one draft and Mack had his moments this year for a late 4th with limited chances. Is there a position Grigson didn't miss on? 

 

There are RB's that start at all rounds but you could say that of every position. If take a look at the top 10 leading rushers this year. You'll find 1/2 are 1st round picks 2 are 2nd rounders 1 went in the 3rd round  then a 5th and an UDFA round out the top 10. Now 11-20 is almost all day 3 guy's minus Lynch and Gore. You get what you pay. 

 

I agree with what you are saying as far as we can find a RB later particularly in this draft. We don't necessarily need an every down back. Mack will have to really improve his blocking to carve out a consistent role. He's shown explosiveness and I didn't see any reason to think he can't learn to block. 

 

The guy I like in this draft after Barkley is Penny( 5'10 220). He's a little smaller then Barkley and doesn't quite have the same wiggle or speed but few do. Like Barkley he can run it catch it and return it. He has 7+ KO return td's then added a PR td this year

 

If he's gone and I think after the Senior Bowl he really climbs boards.  I really like Michel but he is similar to Mack  We may want a more bruising guy like Chubb or Freeman. There will be options for at RB for sure maybe into the later rounds depending on how it shakes out. 

[Yoshinator]

3 minutes ago, akcolt said:

Ballard missing on RB's how so? He has only had one draft and Mack had his moments this year for a late 4th with limited chances. Is there a position Grigson didn't miss on? 

 

There are RB's that start at all rounds but you could say that of every position. If take a look at the top 10 leading rushers this year. You'll find 1/2 are 1st round picks 2 are 2nd rounders 1 went in the 3rd round  then a 5th and an UDFA round out the top 10. Now 11-20 is almost all day 3 guy's minus Lynch and Gore. You get what you pay. 

 

I agree with what you are saying as far as we can find a RB later particularly in this draft. We don't necessarily need an every down back. Mack will have to really improve his blocking to carve out a consistent role. He's shown explosiveness and I didn't see any reason to think he can't learn to block. 

 

The guy I like in this draft after Barkley is Penny( 5'10 220). He's a little smaller then Barkley and doesn't quite have the same wiggle or speed but few do. Like Barkley he can run it catch it and return it. He has 7+ KO return td's then added a PR td this year

 

If he's gone and I think after the Senior Bowl he really climbs boards.  I really like Michel but he is similar to Mack  We may want a more bruising guy like Chubb or Freeman. There will be options for at RB for sure maybe into the later rounds depending on how it shakes out. 

Ballard didn't take Hunt in the 3rd and took Mack in the 4th, that was a blunder by him, whether it was poor scouting on Hunt or just poor judgment on his potential, he was wrong, and that was significant. Grigson had numerous misses everywhere, yes, I'm just referring to his RB misses. 

 

Don't give me the "I could say that about every position when comparing what position hits in later rounds." You, I, and anyone worth their weight in salt know good and well there are much more hits and many more starters at RB than positions like O-Line and Pass rushers in the mid/late rounds. That's a fact. GM's use that tactic a lot (even more so in these two years where RB is deep) to choose positions where you almost have to take early round picks (like O-Line, Pass Rusher, CB) to get an elite player the majority of the time, and use their later round picks to get positions such as RB and WR. This gives them a long term advantage the more they do it. There's a reason we don't hit on defense, and even O-Line to an extent besides Kelly and Constanzo from 2011. You have to know position scarcity as well as great scouting and BPA. A lot goes into being a GM strategy-wise, including taking one player in the first round to set up your second round pick. Hopefully Ballard is playing chess while other GM's are playing checkers.

[Jared Jammer]

Eh . . . you can find great players at all positions all throughout the draft; I have no idea why people act like that argument only applies to running backs.

 

Personally, I'd take the potentially generational talent in Barkley over the non-elite prospects others are discussing. The thought of seeing Luck play next to an all-world running back for the next 5-10 years excites me more than any woman ever could.

[dgambill]

29 minutes ago, Defjamz26 said:

I will never understand this line of thinking that just because of a few outliers like Hunt, Howard, and Johnson, that it’s a 100% guarantee that you can get a high level RB later. You don’t pass up on an elite talent at any position because you THINK you can get just as good later. That is terrible drafting. You always take the elite prospect and best player when you pick. You guys saying otherwise are disillusioned. There’s no RB in this draft that on a team with a good OL, and a good OV will out produce Barkley at the next level. No one else has 4.3 speed at 230 pounds mixed with elite receiving ability and uniquely powerful lower half.

Because the difference in between the rushing leader ypc and another top 8-10 talent is pretty marginal....if your investing capital you want return on investment. You invest a top 5 pick on a rb but he only outgains an avg running back by a few tenths of a yard and you get him in the 4th rd or later....what have you really gained. Most RBs are dependant on the players around them to be great. Even elite runners. You have to have good play calling....good blocking....hopefully a threat at qb to help relieve pressure. There is a pretty good mixture of high picks at rb at the top of the rushing leaders and later picks. I think it just comes down to the fact that if you invest in running the ball...and you have a good OL and game plan...you don't need an elite runner...most running backs at this level are good enough to get you very close to what an elite one will. I'm not saying Barkley shouldn't be our pick...but that is for the staff to decide. How much priority do they want to focus on running the ball. Depending on who we hire the running game and having a bell cow might not be a priority. Look at NE. They don't have any what you would say as elite backs but Lewis led the league in ypc at 5.0. I'm not so concerned if we have the best running back in this class....I just want to be effective at running the ball. I think we can do that with a back later in the draft...but if we think Barkley is what we need to do to address our needs...that's ok too.

[Yoshinator]

1 minute ago, Jared Jammer said:

Eh . . . you can find great players at all positions all throughout the draft; I have no idea why people act like that argument only applies to running backs.

 

Personally, I'd take the potentially generational talent in Barkley over the non-elite prospects others are discussing. The thought of seeing Luck play next to an all-world running back for the next 5-10 years excites me more than any woman ever could.

Ok, you need some help. LOL  

[GusFring]

1 hour ago, Dingus McGirt said:

Look at those massive, collegiate, offensive lines they are running behind.

Penn State have a lot of big bodies

[NewColtsFan]

59 minutes ago, Defjamz26 said:

I will never understand this line of thinking that just because of a few outliers like Hunt, Howard, and Johnson, that it’s a 100% guarantee that you can get a high level RB later. You don’t pass up on an elite talent at any position because you THINK you can get just as good later. That is terrible drafting. You always take the elite prospect and best player when you pick. You guys saying otherwise are disillusioned. There’s no RB in this draft that on a team with a good OL, and a good OC will out produce Barkley at the next level. No one else has 4.3 speed at 230 pounds mixed with elite receiving ability and uniquely powerful lower half.

 

The outliers aren't outliers.   They are the norm.   Haven't you seen the posts here that show in any given year roughly 1-3 of the top-10 RBs by yards are 1st R guys and the rest, 7-9 guys were picked in Rs 2-6.   In other words you don't have to use a 1st round pick to get good performance from a RB.

 

I'm surprised this is news to you?  

 

[Defjamz26]

6 minutes ago, dgambill said:

Because the difference in between the rushing leader ypc and another top 8-10 talent is pretty marginal....if your investing capital you want return on investment. You invest a top 5 pick on a rb but he only outgains an avg running back by a few tenths of a yard and you get him in the 4th rd or later....what have you really gained. Most RBs are dependant on the players around them to be great. Even elite runners. You have to have good play calling....good blocking....hopefully a threat at qb to help relieve pressure. There is a pretty good mixture of high picks at rb at the top of the rushing leaders and later picks. I think it just comes down to the fact that if you invest in running the ball...and you have a good OL and game plan...you don't need an elite runner...most running backs at this level are good enough to get you very close to what an elite one will. I'm not saying Barkley shouldn't be our pick...but that is for the staff to decide. How much priority do they want to focus on running the ball. Depending on who we hire the running game and having a bell cow might not be a priority. Look at NE. They don't have any what you would say as elite backs but Lewis led the league in ypc at 5.0. I'm not so concerned if we have the best running back in this class....I just want to be effective at running the ball. I think we can do that with a back later in the draft...but if we think Barkley is what we need to do to address our needs...that's ok too.

I just think you guys are making drafting to calculated and principle based. There aren’t these super strict guidelines to drafting that you absolutely must adhere to. Your goal is to fill the roster with as many elite players as possible. The only positions this doesn’t apply too are P, K, and fullback. You take elite prospects wherever regardless of what production could possibly be had from another prospect. Besides, that’s not even how GMs Think. They don’t compare Elliot’s rushing numbers and draft position of that of Kareem Hunt to justify where to take a RB. It’s not a compare and contrast league.

 

You don’t know for certain that Rashad Penny or Nick Chubb are going to be late round steals. Heck, you don’t even know when they’ll be available. But you know that Barkley, given his level of competition, elite production, and exceptional measurables has the best shot of being dominant at his position. And he’ll likely be BPA. That’s how you draft. Very rarely to you get elite, blue chip players in later rounds. And trying to play the waiting game is a fools game. Good RBs just aren’t hung up on some type of late round discount rack where everyone can see and take them as they please. 

[Defjamz26]

5 minutes ago, NewColtsFan said:

 

The outliers aren't outliers.   They are the norm.   Haven't you seen the posts here that show in any given year roughly 1-3 of the top-10 RBs by yards are 1st R guys and the rest, 7-9 guys were picked in Rs 2-6.   In other words you don't have to use a 1st round pick to get good performance from a RB.

 

I'm surprised this is news to you?  

 

It’s a recent trend that only exists because those teams miss out on the first round RBs. I don’t think they sat there and said “Leonard Fournette? Pshhh, I’ll get a guy in the 3rd round better than him”. Now they missed out and followed BPA and got lucky. I don’t think anyone expected Howard and Hunt to be stars. If they did they would have gone in the first round. That isn’t strategy, just getting lucky with low risk, high reward picks. Much like a Nate Hairston for example. I don’t think Ballard passed on a bunch of elite slot CBs because he knew he could find something in the 5th round.

[akcolt]

13 minutes ago, Jared Cisneros said:

Ballard didn't take Hunt in the 3rd and took Mack in the 4th, that was a blunder by him, whether it was poor scouting on Hunt or just poor judgment on his potential, he was wrong, and that was significant. Grigson had numerous misses everywhere, yes, I'm just referring to his RB misses. 

 

Don't give me the "I could say that about every position when comparing what position hits in later rounds." You, I, and anyone worth their weight in salt know good and well there are much more hits and many more starters at RB than positions like O-Line and Pass rushers in the mid/late rounds. That's a fact. GM's use that tactic a lot (even more so in these two years where RB is deep) to choose positions where you almost have to take early round picks (like O-Line, Pass Rusher, CB) to get an elite player the majority of the time, and use their later round picks to get positions such as RB and WR. This gives them a long term advantage the more they do it. There's a reason we don't hit on defense, and even O-Line to an extent besides Kelly and Constanzo from 2011. You have to know position scarcity as well as great scouting and BPA. A lot goes into being a GM strategy-wise, including taking one player in the first round to set up your second round pick. Hopefully Ballard is playing chess while other GM's are playing checkers.

As far as Ballard and Hunt go we took Basham in the 3rd at a position of need We don't know where Hunt was on Ballards board but with Gore on the roster it wasn't a big hole for 2017. We need a pass rushing Edge and you get a developmental project at that position in the 3rd round.  I thought/think Mack was good value at the end of the 4th.  Let's not forget  KC was looking like a time share prior to the knee injury to Ware. .

 

As far as starters later in the draft pass rushers and OT's are not typically found throughout the draft.  When you talk about other positions like interior OL WR's etc  I think you will find them scattered but with any position most of the top players are going to be higher picks in today's NFL.   That is true of RB's too all you have to do is look at the leading rushers from this year to see it.