Sucking it up, Colts batting either 2nd or 3rd (Week 16-17 edition)

[BlueShoe]

Weeks 16 and 17, for the Indianapolis Colts, can be summed up in the thread title. 

 

Cleveland is locked in at number one. Nothing can change that now. Only two teams (Giants and Colts) have a shot at the second and third picks in the 2018 NFL draft. If the Giants lose out then they will retain the second overall pick. If the Giants win the final game, and the Colts lose the final game then the Colts will have the second pick in the draft.

 

Both the Giants and Colts play next Sunday, in the early afternoon window of week 17.

 

Texans at Colts

Redskins at Giants

 

It is possible for the Colts to sweep the Houston Texans, and for both teams to finish the season with identical records (4-12), yet the Colts would still have the better draft position. The Houston Texans first round pick belongs to the Cleveland Browns. So in all likelihood, the Browns will own two of the of the top five picks in the draft. The Colts will finish either 3-13 or 4-12, and can pick no lower than third.

 

PICK	TEAM	WINS	LOSSES	WIN%	SOS
1	Cleveland	0	15	0.000	0.515
2	NY Giants	2	13	0.133	0.532
3	Indianapolis	3	12	0.200	0.485

[BlueShoe]

If we end up batting third then a trade-back still makes perfect sense. 

 

If all these quarterbacks enter the draft, they are going to be highly fought after. I think at least 5 quarterbacks are easily going in the first round, and possibly even 4 of them of them very early. 

 

http://footballdungeon.com/2017/12/duane-livelys-2018-mock-draft-0-5/

 

3	New York Jets – TRADE	Mason Rudolph, QB, Oklahoma State
The Indianapolis Colts trade the 3rd overall pick to the New York Jets for the 7th, 38th, and 73rd pick in the 2018 NFL Draft. Mason Rudolph is the quarterback hardly anyone is talking about, but his Peyton Manning like intelligence, work ethic, and professional demeanor will change all of that soon enough.

 

7	Indianapolis Colts – TRADE	Mike McGlinchey, OT, Notre Dame
The Colts need a lot of help, and a trade-back makes perfect sense here. It’s hard to win games when your quarterback is getting sacked, and you have no answer on the other side of the ball. A couple of the acquired picks from trading back will be used to bolster the pass rush. The Colts have to keep Andrew Luck upright, because they are very close to blowing it, and ruining a generation quarterback.

[IinD]

Recent history of overall #3's just for fun..

 

Year	Name	Team	Round	Pick	Player	Position	College
2017	Solomon Thomas	49ers	1	3	3	DE	Stanford
2016	Joey Bosa	Chargers	1	3	3	DE	Ohio State
2015	Dante Fowler	Jaguars	1	3	3	LB	Florida
2014	Blake Bortles	Jaguars	1	3	3	QB	Central Florida
2013	Dion Jordan	Dolphins	1	3	3	DE	Oregon
2012	Trent Richardson	Browns	1	3	3	RB	Alabama
2011	Marcell Dareus	Bills	1	3	3	DT	Alabama
2010	Gerald McCoy	Buccaneers	1	3	3	DT	Oklahoma
2009	Tyson Jackson	Chiefs	1	3	3	DE	Louisiana State
2008	Matt Ryan	Falcons	1	3	3	QB	Boston College
2007	Joe Thomas	Browns	1	3	3	T	Wisconsin
2006	Vince Young	Titans	1	3	3	QB	Texas
2005	Braylon Edwards	Browns	1	3	3	WR	Michigan
2004	Larry Fitzgerald	Cardinals	1	3	3	WR	Pittsburgh
2003	Andre Johnson	Texans	1	3	3	WR	Miami (FL)
2002	Joey Harrington	Lions	1	3	3	QB	Oregon
2001	Gerard Warren	Browns	1	3	3	DT	Florida
2000	Chris Samuels	Redskins	1	3	3	T

[BlueShoe]

8 hours ago, IinD said:

Recent history of overall #3's just for fun..

 

Year	Name	Team	Round	Pick	Player	Position	College
2017	Solomon Thomas	49ers	1	3	3	DE	Stanford
2016	Joey Bosa	Chargers	1	3	3	DE	Ohio State
2015	Dante Fowler	Jaguars	1	3	3	LB	Florida
2014	Blake Bortles	Jaguars	1	3	3	QB	Central Florida
2013	Dion Jordan	Dolphins	1	3	3	DE	Oregon
2012	Trent Richardson	Browns	1	3	3	RB	Alabama
2011	Marcell Dareus	Bills	1	3	3	DT	Alabama
2010	Gerald McCoy	Buccaneers	1	3	3	DT	Oklahoma
2009	Tyson Jackson	Chiefs	1	3	3	DE	Louisiana State
2008	Matt Ryan	Falcons	1	3	3	QB	Boston College
2007	Joe Thomas	Browns	1	3	3	T	Wisconsin
2006	Vince Young	Titans	1	3	3	QB	Texas
2005	Braylon Edwards	Browns	1	3	3	WR	Michigan
2004	Larry Fitzgerald	Cardinals	1	3	3	WR	Pittsburgh
2003	Andre Johnson	Texans	1	3	3	WR	Miami (FL)
2002	Joey Harrington	Lions	1	3	3	QB	Oregon
2001	Gerard Warren	Browns	1	3	3	DT	Florida
2000	Chris Samuels	Redskins	1	3	3	T

 

Some big hits and big misses there. 

[chad72]

Now, we are in direct competition with the Texans for the #3 draft pick. If we beat the Texans to go 2-0 head-to-head and the Giants lose again, we end up with the #4 draft pick. Thus, the Texans, who will probably not need a QB like us, would be in the same boat as us, for teams wanting to trade up.

 

Say, for giggles, we sweep the Texans and get the #4 pick, do you guys think it is more advantageous with teams wanting to move up because they will have to give up less to move up to the #4 pick, and thus gives the holder of the #4 pick a greater chance to trade down?

 

Something to think about.

[jskinnz]

4 minutes ago, chad72 said:

Now, we are in direct competition with the Texans for the #3 draft pick. If we beat the Texans to go 2-0 head-to-head, we end up with the #4 draft pick. Thus, the Texans, who will probably not need a QB like us, would be in the same boat as us, for teams wanting to trade up.

 

Say, for giggles, we sweep the Texans and get the #4 pick, do you guys think it is more advantageous with teams wanting to move up because they will have to give up less to move up to the #4 pick, and thus gives the holder of the #4 pick a greater chance to trade down?

 

Something to think about.

 

I am amazed you have not caught this.  The Colts are locked in at no worse than # 3.  They cannot slide to # 4.

[chad72]

6 minutes ago, jskinnz said:

 

I am amazed you have not caught this.  The Colts are locked in at no worse than # 3.  They cannot slide to # 4.

 

I get it now, strength of schedule is higher than divisional tie-breaker for the sake of draft tie-breakers, and we have a lower strength of schedule. Playoff tie-breakers operate differently with the divisonal tie-breaker higher, hence I got confused, my bad.

 

However, the question is still valid? Would the Texans be a more attractive option for a trade up than the Colts since neither of them need a QB if the team moving up wants a QB and the team moving up has to give up less?

[BProland85]

4 hours ago, BlueShoe said:

 

Some big hits and big misses there. 

 

13 hours ago, IinD said:

Recent history of overall #3's just for fun..

 

Year	Name	Team	Round	Pick	Player	Position	College
2017	Solomon Thomas	49ers	1	3	3	DE	Stanford
2016	Joey Bosa	Chargers	1	3	3	DE	Ohio State
2015	Dante Fowler	Jaguars	1	3	3	LB	Florida
2014	Blake Bortles	Jaguars	1	3	3	QB	Central Florida
2013	Dion Jordan	Dolphins	1	3	3	DE	Oregon
2012	Trent Richardson	Browns	1	3	3	RB	Alabama
2011	Marcell Dareus	Bills	1	3	3	DT	Alabama
2010	Gerald McCoy	Buccaneers	1	3	3	DT	Oklahoma
2009	Tyson Jackson	Chiefs	1	3	3	DE	Louisiana State
2008	Matt Ryan	Falcons	1	3	3	QB	Boston College
2007	Joe Thomas	Browns	1	3	3	T	Wisconsin
2006	Vince Young	Titans	1	3	3	QB	Texas
2005	Braylon Edwards	Browns	1	3	3	WR	Michigan
2004	Larry Fitzgerald	Cardinals	1	3	3	WR	Pittsburgh
2003	Andre Johnson	Texans	1	3	3	WR	Miami (FL)
2002	Joey Harrington	Lions	1	3	3	QB	Oregon
2001	Gerard Warren	Browns	1	3	3	DT	Florida
2000	Chris Samuels	Redskins	1	3	3	T

 

I wish there was a Joe Thomas in this draft. We'd be in prime position to get him. 

[indyagent17]

4 hours ago, BlueShoe said:

 

Some big hits and big misses there. 

No kidding, HiT or MISS and a MISS for a lot of teams 

[chad72]

13 minutes ago, BProland85 said:

 

I wish there was a Joe Thomas in this draft. We'd be in prime position to get him. 

 

The key is - we need to be prepared to not have a trade down and get the BPA. 

 

If Ballard thinks it is Minkah Fitzpatrick, so be it.

[NewColtsFan]

29 minutes ago, BProland85 said:

 

 

I wish there was a Joe Thomas in this draft. We'd be in prime position to get him. 

 

Great post!     

 

And a reminder to us all that no one, or almost no one, is a guaranteed lock to succeed.

 

 

[PeterBowman]

7 minutes ago, NewColtsFan said:

 

Great post!     

 

And a reminder to us all that no one, or almost no one, is a guaranteed lock to succeed.

 

 

this is so true...though I will say Quenton Nelson is the closest thing to a sure thing in this draft.

[BProland85]

38 minutes ago, chad72 said:

 

The key is - we need to be prepared to not have a trade down and get the BPA. 

 

If Ballard thinks it is Minkah Fitzpatrick, so be it.

 

I would be very upset with drafting Fitzpatrick. We just invested a lot in the secondary last draft. OL, ILB, finding another RB, and replenishing the WR core needs to be the main focus. 

[BlueShoe]

3 hours ago, chad72 said:

Now, we are in direct competition with the Texans for the #3 draft pick. If we beat the Texans to go 2-0 head-to-head and the Giants lose again, we end up with the #4 draft pick. Thus, the Texans, who will probably not need a QB like us, would be in the same boat as us, for teams wanting to trade up.

 

Say, for giggles, we sweep the Texans and get the #4 pick, do you guys think it is more advantageous with teams wanting to move up because they will have to give up less to move up to the #4 pick, and thus gives the holder of the #4 pick a greater chance to trade down?

 

Something to think about.

 

3 hours ago, jskinnz said:

 

I am amazed you have not caught this.  The Colts are locked in at no worse than # 3.  They cannot slide to # 4.

 

jskinnz is correct. 

 

Colts are picking either 2nd or third, and if the Giants lose then it won't matter what we do, because it would lock us in at the #3 spot. 

[BlueShoe]

1 hour ago, chad72 said:

 

I get it now, strength of schedule is higher than divisional tie-breaker for the sake of draft tie-breakers, and we have a lower strength of schedule. Playoff tie-breakers operate differently with the divisonal tie-breaker higher, hence I got confused, my bad.

 

However, the question is still valid? Would the Texans be a more attractive option for a trade up than the Colts since neither of them need a QB if the team moving up wants a QB and the team moving up has to give up less?

 

Cleveland owns the Houston pick, and will probably be picking twice in the top five.  

[chad72]

6 minutes ago, BProland85 said:

 

I would be very upset with drafting Fitzpatrick. We just invested a lot in the secondary last draft. OL, ILB, finding another RB, and replenishing the WR core needs to be the main focus. 

 

Relax, it was just an example!!! I am just leaving it up to the ones who invest months of their time to determine BPA.  

 

I am certain some of us will be upset, some will be happy, as always!!!

[BlueShoe]

2 minutes ago, chad72 said:

 

Relax, it was just an example!!! I am just leaving it up to the ones who invest months of their time to determine BPA.  

 

I am certain some of us will be upset, some will be happy, as always!!!

 

I agree with you. Fitzpatrick would have probably been the top corner in this draft, had he not been forced to play safety. If we took him then I wouldn't lose any sleep. I would prefer that we trade back and pick up some additional picks though. I am nearly in love with the idea of trading back with the Jets. 

[chad72]

34 minutes ago, NewColtsFan said:

 

Great post!     

 

And a reminder to us all that no one, or almost no one, is a guaranteed lock to succeed.

 

 

 

Bjoern Identity, remember all the nicknames we came up with for Bjoern Werner when he was drafted. Every franchise, during the day of the draft, tries its best to get excited about their pick, and there will always be plenty of stones thrown too.

 

You have to be a little bit of a glutton for punishment as a fan of an NFL team since it seems like half the first round draft picks do not pan out as expected, for various reasons.

[PeterBowman]

38 minutes ago, PeterBowman said:

this is so true...though I will say Quenton Nelson is the closest thing to a sure thing in this draft.

here's a little nugget on Nelson too.

 

http://rotoworld.com/player/cfb/136676/quenton-nelson

[gacoop1]

Draft a RB and/or Edge.  Barkeley and/or Chubb.  The O line will improve in 2018 with the right OC or O line coach....Need a difference maker now at the RB position as well as the Edge..

[Fluke_33]

2 hours ago, chad72 said:

 

The key is - we need to be prepared to not have a trade down and get the BPA. 

 

If Ballard thinks it is Minkah Fitzpatrick, so be it.

That secondary would be nasty!

[Superman]

2 hours ago, BlueShoe said:

if the Giants win then it won't matter what we do, because it would lock us in at the #3 spot. 

 

You mean if the Giants lose, right?

[BlueShoe]

11 minutes ago, Superman said:

 

You mean if the Giants lose, right?

 

Correct. LOL

 

I guess I was thinking they were winning by losing.  

[rockywoj]

17 hours ago, IinD said:

Recent history of overall #3's just for fun..

 

Year	Name	Team	Round	Pick	Player	Position	College
2017	Solomon Thomas	49ers	1	3	3	DE	Stanford
2016	Joey Bosa	Chargers	1	3	3	DE	Ohio State
2015	Dante Fowler	Jaguars	1	3	3	LB	Florida
2014	Blake Bortles	Jaguars	1	3	3	QB	Central Florida
2013	Dion Jordan	Dolphins	1	3	3	DE	Oregon
2012	Trent Richardson	Browns	1	3	3	RB	Alabama
2011	Marcell Dareus	Bills	1	3	3	DT	Alabama
2010	Gerald McCoy	Buccaneers	1	3	3	DT	Oklahoma
2009	Tyson Jackson	Chiefs	1	3	3	DE	Louisiana State
2008	Matt Ryan	Falcons	1	3	3	QB	Boston College
2007	Joe Thomas	Browns	1	3	3	T	Wisconsin
2006	Vince Young	Titans	1	3	3	QB	Texas
2005	Braylon Edwards	Browns	1	3	3	WR	Michigan
2004	Larry Fitzgerald	Cardinals	1	3	3	WR	Pittsburgh
2003	Andre Johnson	Texans	1	3	3	WR	Miami (FL)
2002	Joey Harrington	Lions	1	3	3	QB	Oregon
2001	Gerard Warren	Browns	1	3	3	DT	Florida
2000	Chris Samuels	Redskins	1	3	3	T

A Joe Thomas, please.

[NewEra]

17 hours ago, IinD said:

Recent history of overall #3's just for fun..

 

Year	Name	Team	Round	Pick	Player	Position	College
2017	Solomon Thomas	49ers	1	3	3	DE	Stanford
2016	Joey Bosa	Chargers	1	3	3	DE	Ohio State
2015	Dante Fowler	Jaguars	1	3	3	LB	Florida
2014	Blake Bortles	Jaguars	1	3	3	QB	Central Florida
2013	Dion Jordan	Dolphins	1	3	3	DE	Oregon
2012	Trent Richardson	Browns	1	3	3	RB	Alabama
2011	Marcell Dareus	Bills	1	3	3	DT	Alabama
2010	Gerald McCoy	Buccaneers	1	3	3	DT	Oklahoma
2009	Tyson Jackson	Chiefs	1	3	3	DE	Louisiana State
2008	Matt Ryan	Falcons	1	3	3	QB	Boston College
2007	Joe Thomas	Browns	1	3	3	T	Wisconsin
2006	Vince Young	Titans	1	3	3	QB	Texas
2005	Braylon Edwards	Browns	1	3	3	WR	Michigan
2004	Larry Fitzgerald	Cardinals	1	3	3	WR	Pittsburgh
2003	Andre Johnson	Texans	1	3	3	WR	Miami (FL)
2002	Joey Harrington	Lions	1	3	3	QB	Oregon
2001	Gerard Warren	Browns	1	3	3	DT	Florida
2000	Chris Samuels	Redskins	1	3	3	T

There's some really really good players in there

[dw49]

6 hours ago, chad72 said:

 

I get it now, strength of schedule is higher than divisional tie-breaker for the sake of draft tie-breakers, and we have a lower strength of schedule. Playoff tie-breakers operate differently with the divisonal tie-breaker higher, hence I got confused, my bad.

 

However, the question is still valid? Would the Texans be a more attractive option for a trade up than the Colts since neither of them need a QB if the team moving up wants a QB and the team moving up has to give up less?

 

 

Yes they would give up less trading up the the Texans "SPOT." I say that because Clevland owns their 1st round pick. That pick will be 1.4 if they lose to the Colts. If they win and both TB and Denver lose , it could go to low as 6th.

 

That said , lets assume Cleveland takes a  QB at 1.1. So now your question would be legit . Only they would be trading with  Cleveland not Houston at say pick 4 rather than the Colts at pick 3. Yes the team would have to give up less to secure pick 1.4 than it would to secure pick 1.3 . The problem with that would be if another team traded for the Colts pick (1.3) and selected the QB that team wanted to draft.  

[dgambill]

2 hours ago, rockywoj said:

A Joe Thomas, please.

My thoughts exactly....but yes the defensive players in recent years have all been great players. I cant even imagine if we land the second pick....be like Christmas all over.

[Narcosys]

If we beat houston, we could drop a couple more spots given there would be three teams with a 4-12 record: Indy, Houston, Tampa.

 

Someone smarter than me could predict the tiebreakers.

 

But if we do pick ahead of Tampa, we should snag Bradley Chubb.

[2006Coltsbestever]

40 minutes ago, Narcosys said:

If we beat houston, we could drop a couple more spots given there would be three teams with a 4-12 record: Indy, Houston, Tampa.

 

Someone smarter than me could predict the tiebreakers.

 

But if we do pick ahead of Tampa, we should snag Bradley Chubb.

We pick 3rd no matter what even if we win per the Indy Star so we are fine. Yes we could pick 2nd if Giants win and we lose.

[aaron11]

looks like the colts, texans, giants and redskins all have nothing to play for besides draft position

 

it will be interesting to see if anyone blatantly tanks, ie pull starters and what not.  

 

i doubt the colts will do that in chucks last game.  could definitely see the giants pulling eli.  who knows with the texans, they dont even have a high pick

[2006Coltsbestever]

3 minutes ago, aaron11 said:

looks like the colts, texans, giants and redskins all have nothing to play for besides draft position

 

it will be interesting to see if anyone blatantly tanks, ie pull starters and what not.  

 

i doubt the colts will do that in chucks last game.  could definitely see the giants pulling eli.  who knows with the texans, they dont even have a high pick

At worse we pick 3rd so no stress this week for me.

[aaron11]

Just now, 2006Coltsbestever said:

At worse we pick 3rd so no stress this week for me.

ill be rooting for a win, just like week 17 last year.  that was probably my favorite game of the season 

[2006Coltsbestever]

1 minute ago, aaron11 said:

ill be rooting for a win, just like week 17 last year.  that was probably my favorite game of the season 

Me too, we get the best of both worlds. We sweep Houston and still pick 3rd. Hey maybe we carry Chuck off the field too, ok  on that last part. I actually think we win this game but that is fine.