Qb Is Not A Need, Pass On Luck

[Portage Coltfans]

said nothing? i called our roster terrible. you think its SB calibur. i don't know how i "said nothing"?

this isn't 2010. we limped into the PO's with that roster. 2012 roster will be very different from that year. what don't you get? what are you not comprehending? talk about epic failing. LOL at you.

what makes you think that this team will be better in 2015 with Luck? a lot of "LUCK???"

I think any roster has a chance with manning running the offense (if healthy), and if you draft some talented youth and sign some value FA at needed spots on Defense, then yeah we could win the superbowl in 2012

[Portage Coltfans]

Can you please explain to me where you get ths guarantee crap you keep attributing to me?

well if you don't believe that Manning can win more superbowls if he plays again, then you must believe that Luck is a better option for our future. I figured that meant you knew something I didn't about luck or could offer some guarantees about how he is the better option over manning for 4 more years.

[subvet]

Before I post my reply, just know I am in no way trying to insult the intelligence of any Colts fan presently here, but half of what has been said so far is ridiculous. First off, when was the last time, if ever, a cornerback was taken #1 overall in the NFL Draft? Morris Claibourne is undoubtedly the best CB prospect of this year's draft class, but he is by no means, at ALL, the best CB prospect of all time. Patrick Peterson is considered a much better CB prospect than Claibourne. The only edge Claibourne has on Peterson is height, by a couple of inches, and generally regarded as a better man-coverage corner. I have no idea where you heard that Claibourne is the best CB prospect of all time, but think about that claim for a moment. You're accepting that he's going to be a better prospect than not only Patrick Peterson, but also guys like Darrelle Revis, Nnamdi Asomugha, Charles Woodson, and Deion Sanders. That in itself is insanity to claim.

Moving on to Trent Richardson...people, people, people. Richardson is a dynamic back, but let's not forget he also played behind a superior offensive line at Alabama, and correct me if I'm wrong but I believe they had THREE All-American offensive linemen, and one of their guards won the national Best Offensive Lineman award. The Colts are in the bottom tier in terms of how their offensive line ranks among the rest of the NFL. The only teams with probably worse offensive linemen are the Bears and Vikings. Drafting Richardson would only mean he'll have a lackluster to horrific career for his first few years until the Colts developed a bruteforce offensive line corp. This is why teams are beginning to shy away from drafting running backs in the 1st round until they're confident they have a good rushing attack.

Now for the most probable first overall pick the Colts will take, Andrew Luck. People, Luck is no Ryan Leaf or Jamarcus Russell. He's a vastly superior player to both of them not just in terms of being a quarterback, but an overall athlete. He mastered a pro-style offense and called his own plays. He checks off receivers. He made decent receivers out of walk-on players for Stanford after his starting WR core was injury-ridden. Did any of you watch the NFL Combine? If you did, you'd know that Luck put up better stats than Cam Newton did at the Combine in '11. He ran a 4.59 40-yard dash, and the guy is 6'4, 225 lbs. I don't know why people keep ragging on his arm strength. Without even using his lower body for torque, Luck can throw a pass almost 50 yards, using his upper body strength only. Who cares if he can't throw a cannon shot like Stafford or Cutler? He has a quick release time that rivals that of Peyton, and pinpoint, on-the-numbers accuracy. I'll take quick release and accuracy with pretty good arm strength over great arm strength and mediocre release and accuracy. Not to mention arm strength is something that can be honed and improved over time.

Outside of our first pick, the Colts will need a 3-4 nose-tackle, preferrably Dontari Poe if he's available. For all we know, the Colts CB's could be great under Pagano's 3-4 defense. 3-4 schemes usually involve more man coverage, something which Jerraud Powers has shown he can excel at, and a mix of zone blitzes like the Steelers run, and generally allow for the safeties to be more versatile and roam the field more. Think about the number of defenses who currently run a 3-4 scheme. How many aren't considered a good defense? Maybe the Chiefs, and that's it. Every other 3-4 defense is in the upper half of the league in terms of ranking, most notably the Ravens, Texans, Steelers, 49ers and Chargers. Plus, look at how defenses have fared under every previous Raven's defensive coordinator who was given a head coaching job somewhere. They've been pretty good.

The media, the fans, and the general public need to stop sharing the mindset that the first overall pick of the draft has to play right away. Luck learning behind Peyton in Bruce Arians' offensive scheme, along with an aggressive 3-4 defense from a defensive-minded coach, coupled with a relatively easy schedule means the Colts could be a deadly team next year.

A cornerback as the first pick was ludicrous and I don't know who started it. Stats at the combine mean little except to reinforce what was already known and I agree that starting the rookie year is desireable for the player but isn't imperative just because of draft position, good blog overall though for once I agree with Balzer.

[Phil J]

I think any roster has a chance with manning running the offense (if healthy), and if you draft some talented youth and sign some value FA at needed spots on Defense, then yeah we could win the superbowl in 2012

value FA? with all that cap space eaten up?

this isn't a magic turnaround. this is not a 1 offeseason rebuild. how can you realistically believe we will contend for the SB, let alone make the PO's? talented youth? making an impact and being successful IMMEDIATELY? excuse me while i type this, I am actually laughing out loud.

i also assume that you think nothing of the Texans, that they must be garbage and easy pushovers. dangerous move.

[Portage Coltfans]

value FA? with all that cap space eaten up?

this isn't a magic turnaround. this is not a 1 offeseason rebuild. how can you realistically believe we will contend for the SB, let alone make the PO's? talented youth? making an impact and being successful IMMEDIATELY? excuse me while i type this, I am actually laughing out loud.

i also assume that you think nothing of the Texans, that they must be garbage and easy pushovers. dangerous move.

why not, the Bengals made to the playoffs this year right?

How do you know that Luck is a better option then the value we get in return from trading his rights, plus keeping manning?

How do you know we will draft good players in 2013, 2014, 2015?

I'll take my chances with Manning for the next 3-4 years, it will be more entertaining and fun than watching luck grow. Luck won't be the last great QB option ever in the NFL

[pacolts56]

Yes, heaven forbid that anyone would not prostrate themselves by the side of the road laying palm branches for Andrew Luck to walk on.

By the way.... did you hear that Dr. Wondelic flunked the Luck test?

[Phil J]

How do you know we will draft good players in 2013, 2014, 2015?

How do you know the kings ransom of 2012 picks will work out? see, we can do this all day.

lets say we do trade the pick and get manning back. its pretty much SB or bust, am i right? how will the fanbase feel if we go one and done, let alone if we miss the PO's all together? and what if peyton decides to cut the 4 years short and retire after next year? no Andrew, a bunch of kids still learning, and Orlovsky throwing them the ball?

yikes........

[IndyTrav]

why not, the Bengals made to the playoffs this year right?

How do you know that Luck is a better option then the value we get in return from trading his rights, plus keeping manning?

How do you know we will draft good players in 2013, 2014, 2015?

I'll take my chances with Manning for the next 3-4 years, it will be more entertaining and fun than watching luck grow. Luck won't be the last great QB option ever in the NFL

Funny you mention the Bengals making it to the playoffs....with a rookie QB.

Funny you mention not knowing if we'll draft good players in 2013,2014,2015, but no mention of the likelyhood of not drafting good player in 2012, when you want us to trade our pick for multiple picks.....

Watching an older player regress, is more fun that watching a younger player grow? Seems odd to me....Sadistic really.....

Luck won't be the last great QB option, your 100% correct....But for what its worth the Dolphins and Rams are still kicking themselves for not taking Matt Ryan, and Atlanta is laughing all the way... ATL 3 Playoff appearances, 43-21 record since 2008....Miami/Stl 43-85 1 Playoff appearance......

[Phil J]

its useless. we shot too many holes in his theory. LUCKy if he will be back in this thread. ;)

[BrentMc11]

I agree as we have had this talk before,i think RG3 is more able to make all the throws,and you know i like Keenum as well,and im not saying Luck isnt talented but ,i agree to an extent with the media hype tag,but over all i think RG3 is a beter shot of making a big impact,people dont give him credit for inteligence but you and i have discussed this i think hes very smart

I came back to this in amazement that Andrew Luck ran the same time as Cam Newton in the 40! Does that matter? NO! Just surprised me. We cannot go wrong with either choice....I still wish it was a healthy Peyton.....and a Super Bowl run.

[Phil J]

I still wish it was a healthy Peyton.....and a Super Bowl run.

not the same roster as 2009 or 2010. even with a healthy manning, my guess for max wins is 5.

[BrentMc11]

not the same roster as 2009 or 2010. even with a healthy manning, my guess for max wins is 5.

With new rules I disagree....at least until I know who is back. Tamme turned into a star with Manning.....nothing with Painter/Orlovsky until late....Dallas....and freaking Blair White was solid...You might come back and say OL? His decision making is second to none at the line of scrimmage. He would have passed for 5K yards last year at 85%...the rules are soooooo lax.

[IndyTrav]

With new rules I disagree....at least until I know who is back. Tamme turned into a star with Manning.....nothing with Painter/Orlovsky until late....Dallas....and freaking Blair White was solid...You might come back and say OL? His decision making is second to none at the line of scrimmage. He would have passed for 5K yards last year at 85%...the rules are soooooo lax.

I don't think we would score quick enough for Manning to ever get to the 5K mark. It takes big plays, and thats something our offense really hasn't done in over 5 years. Its a very plodding, ball controling Off. with Peyton.....

Brees 657att-5476yds

Brady 611att-5235yds

Stafford 663att-5038yds

Peyton in '10...679att(unreal)-4700yds......thats an extremely significant diff......Look at that compared to Brees...22 less attempts 776 more yards....

[BrentMc11]

I don't think we would score quick enough for Manning to ever get to the 5K mark. It takes big plays, and thats something our offense really hasn't done in over 5 years. Its a very plodding, ball controling Off. with Peyton.....

Brees 657att-5476yds

Brady 611att-5235yds

Stafford 663att-5038yds

Peyton in '10...679att(unreal)-4700yds......thats an extremely significant diff......Look at that compared to Brees...22 less attempts 776 more yards....

New rules made for 3 over Marino's record. Gonna respectfully disagree...he had Reggie, Garcon, a health Collie, Tamme....and Dallas...even though he played with slippery...and still injured hands. The line would not have been as banged up as well....A HOF QB make a huge difference at the line. Look at Brady's numbers. He was throwing no bombs to receivers and still 5,235....Collie...Reggie, and Garcon all get downfield. Just my thoughts as usual...

[IndyTrav]

New rules made for 3 over Marino's record. Gonna respectfully disagree...he had Reggie, Garcon, a health Collie, Tamme....and Dallas...even though he played with slippery...and still injured hands. The line would not have been as banged up as well....A HOF QB make a huge difference at the line. Look at Brady's numbers. He was throwing no bombs to receivers and still 5,235....Collie...Reggie, and Garcon all get downfield. Just my thoughts as usual...

For what its worth this year TD's 25+yds

Brees-17

Stafford-11

Brady- 8

Manning in 2010-6

Manning in 2004 (record year)-15

[Balzer40]

Can someone please explain this to me? I continually see this getting brought up, over and over and over. If Peyton comes back we can win a SB in the next 3-4 years etc etc.

If Im not mistaken, Peytons been in the league 14 years, and has been to 2 Super Bowls. Winning one. So how is it we 'probably will' win the SB in 3 years, with a lesser team, an older QB etc etc?!? I don't understand this logic.

"Well, Peytons been to 2 Super Bowls in 14 years, so we can EASILY win another one at least in the next 3"...I just dont get it. ....

I have brought this same thing up several times to different posters that have said the same thing and wouldn't you know it, they never have an answer that is even somewhat reasonable. Its comical to me that people think Manning automatically offers a high possibility of winning more superbowls in the next 3 yrs. when even in his prime he only took us to 2 in 14 yrs. and only winning 1. Now, he is past his prime, coming off 4 neck surguries, will have an even more depleted roster around him and yet, somehow he's going to get us a couple more SB wins in the next 3 yrs.. Unbelievable!

[Malakai432]

Some people even seem to believe 2-3 super bowls in 4 years, hmmmmmmm.... It is a possibility though, with Manning it's always a possibility albeit a rare one. You still have to factor in the Pats, Steelers, Ravens, Jets and the more upcoming teams like the Bengals and Texans, heck even the Broncos with Tebow and their tough defense. Definitely not a given that the Colts will win a SB with Manning @ the helm.

I think alot of that though is assuming the Colts actually build a solid overall team with Manning at the helm, but that will take a year or two, maybe more to develop IMO.

[FL_COLTSFAN_407]

Wow we have some Edit on this message board. A CB?????? Really?? in the words of JIm Mora, ARE YOU Edit Kidding me!!!

I became a colts fan because of peyton, peyton was the reason why i switched from futbol to football. BUt I love the colts and Andrew Luck is the best chance for this Franchise. Luck has had a lot of hate geared towards him, lets dispel some myths

Myth 1: Luck is selfish and wants to start right away

Facts: Every QB that is considered good enough to be top 5 pick should want to start right away. I remember a certain guy who came out of tennesse, He wears number 18, he told polian he wanted to start right away and that if colts didn't pick him, he would make their life miserable. I think his name was peyton something. Furthermore Luck has repeatedly said he is willing to sit behind peyton and learn because peyton is who he shaped himself to be after.

Myth 2: Luck has mediocre arm and can't make deep throws

The same qualm was raised about peyton and his mediocre arm. What seperates Manning and also LUck is their accuracy. Both of them are extremely accurate. Luck has almost perfect form, his only issue is his follow through after he releases ball which can be coached. BUt luck can consistently throw ball 50 yards and place it in the money spot

Myth 3: Luck isn't atheltic

Luck ran a 4.59 in the 40 yard dash, the same TIME AS CAM NEWTON. And he is way faster than Manning ever was and is faster than aaron rodgers. More importantly Luck knows how to move around the pocket much the same way peyton does.

Myth 4: Luck isn't Peyton Manning

No one will be peyton manning thats a fact but luck molded his game after manning. At stanford, he called his own plays and much like peyton was given 3 plays at line of scrimmage and Luck would decide what play to run based on defense

RGIII is talented and athletic but as a pure pocket passer, Luck is way better, more importantly Luck can and already knows how to run a no huddle perfectly while calling his own plays. I think RGIII will be good player but it is LUCK that will end up in Canton. Luck has been great for multiple years at Standford. RGIII came out of nowhere this year.

Edited February 29, 2012 by Coltssouth
language & insulting the fan base

[SubZero]

So, since you like to use comparisons, what is the way of the Bills? Did they have a number 1 pick that they traded?

Im saying the bills cause look how hard it is to find a franchise QB. When Kelly retired then they went down the tube. I dont want to have the colts be in the bottom of the barrel for years. And when a prospect that is being compared to Elway and Manning. Take them.

[Vance]

I think RGIII will be good player but it is LUCK that will end up in Canton.

Can you help me with track bets next week?

[Scott21]

I still don't understand this notion people have that having Peyton Manning back will have a negative impact. The vast majority of reports and sources are saying Peyton is looking better and better with each passing week. Some reports have said he looks even a little stronger than he used to be, which makes sense given that one of the positive side effects of the neck fusion surgery is that Peyton will have a greater lateral range in his throwing motions. The fusion as we're all aware was a 100% success, and although his nerve in his neck may only be (what appears to be) somewhere from 70-80%, he has plenty of time to heal. Peyton has been arguably one of the most dedicated and hard working players to ever play the game. He's just as dedicated to his rehab process.

Here is a breakdown of the team's veteran contracts --> NO PROMOTIONAL POSTING ON THE SITE2012-archives/january/breaking-down-colts-key-veteran-contracts.html

Freeney eats up most of this year's cap space, and may be willing to restructure a portion of his deal for Mathis, if he deems it necessary. I'm more than willing to wager Peyton is going to be released by the team and then signed right back three days later (when the league year begins with free agency) with an incentive laden, reduced cap contract, probably for 3 or 4 years. At this point, he cares nothing for his salary, largely because he's a triple-digit millionaire. All he'll want is for Pagano to be able to field a good team. Antoine Bethea earned his salary last year, and who knows, he may be willing to restructure a small portion if it allows the team to sign Mathis back. After this we start to dip into the players who are either going to be asked to take a good reduction in their contracts or be cut. These players include Clark, Brackett, Bullitt, Addai, Johnson, and Diles, and I wouldn't be surprised to see Brackett, Addai, Johnson, and Diles all gone. Vinatieri would free up some cap space if cut, but the amount of money saved is miniscule compared to keeping him through 2013. This essentially frees up roughly $15 million, and if the retained players mentioned above take reduced contracts, the team could potentially free up an additional $4-6 million. And, thanks largely to the new collective bargaining agreement, the floor price of the market value for veteran free agents is lowered (which enabled the team to sign Anderson, Brayton and Sims last year at relatively low costs). Fortunately this offseason there is a good stock of veteran defensive and offensive linemen, both of which the Colts will need.

Having a more solid front 7 in the new 3-4 base defense weighs more heavily than having a solid secondary. The pass rush in a 3-4 is designed to confuse and pressure quarterbacks, whereby mistakes are made, routes and snaps are mistimed, and passes are thrown inaccurately. Houston has average safeties and one quality corner in Jonathan Joseph, yet they're top 3 in defensive rankings. Dallas ranked 14th overall in defense and has a secondary almost as worse as the Colts, if not worse. Cleveland had the tenth overall best defense, and only this season did they see their secondary produce playmakers. If Wade Phillips turned Houston around from one of the worst defenses in the league to top 5 in the league, I'm more than willing to side with the idea that Pagano can at least turn the Colts defense around to a top 10 defense.

[number28]

^ I have reached my likes quota for the day! I really love what you wrote. It's good to still see people that appreciate Peyton and not forgetting what he has done for our team.

[UndecidedFrog]

I still don't understand this notion people have that having Peyton Manning back will have a negative impact. The vast majority of reports and sources are saying Peyton is looking better and better with each passing week. Some reports have said he looks even a little stronger than he used to be, which makes sense given that one of the positive side effects of the neck fusion surgery is that Peyton will have a greater lateral range in his throwing motions. The fusion as we're all aware was a 100% success, and although his nerve in his neck may only be (what appears to be) somewhere from 70-80%, he has plenty of time to heal. Peyton has been arguably one of the most dedicated and hard working players to ever play the game. He's just as dedicated to his rehab process.

Here is a breakdown of the team's veteran contracts --> http://www.coltsauth...-contracts.html

Freeney eats up most of this year's cap space, and may be willing to restructure a portion of his deal for Mathis, if he deems it necessary. I'm more than willing to wager Peyton is going to be released by the team and then signed right back three days later (when the league year begins with free agency) with an incentive laden, reduced cap contract, probably for 3 or 4 years. At this point, he cares nothing for his salary, largely because he's a triple-digit millionaire. All he'll want is for Pagano to be able to field a good team. Antoine Bethea earned his salary last year, and who knows, he may be willing to restructure a small portion if it allows the team to sign Mathis back. After this we start to dip into the players who are either going to be asked to take a good reduction in their contracts or be cut. These players include Clark, Brackett, Bullitt, Addai, Johnson, and Diles, and I wouldn't be surprised to see Brackett, Addai, Johnson, and Diles all gone. Vinatieri would free up some cap space if cut, but the amount of money saved is miniscule compared to keeping him through 2013. This essentially frees up roughly $15 million, and if the retained players mentioned above take reduced contracts, the team could potentially free up an additional $4-6 million. And, thanks largely to the new collective bargaining agreement, the floor price of the market value for veteran free agents is lowered (which enabled the team to sign Anderson, Brayton and Sims last year at relatively low costs). Fortunately this offseason there is a good stock of veteran defensive and offensive linemen, both of which the Colts will need.

Having a more solid front 7 in the new 3-4 base defense weighs more heavily than having a solid secondary. The pass rush in a 3-4 is designed to confuse and pressure quarterbacks, whereby mistakes are made, routes and snaps are mistimed, and passes are thrown inaccurately. Houston has average safeties and one quality corner in Jonathan Joseph, yet they're top 3 in defensive rankings. Dallas ranked 14th overall in defense and has a secondary almost as worse as the Colts, if not worse. Cleveland had the tenth overall best defense, and only this season did they see their secondary produce playmakers. If Wade Phillips turned Houston around from one of the worst defenses in the league to top 5 in the league, I'm more than willing to side with the idea that Pagano can at least turn the Colts defense around to a top 10 defense.

Can you please provide me with the source information from where you pulled the 70-80% nerve regeneration claim?

[Ramblinwreck7]

value FA? with all that cap space eaten up?

this isn't a magic turnaround. this is not a 1 offeseason rebuild. how can you realistically believe we will contend for the SB, let alone make the PO's? talented youth? making an impact and being successful IMMEDIATELY? excuse me while i type this, I am actually laughing out loud.

i also assume that you think nothing of the Texans, that they must be garbage and easy pushovers. dangerous move.

If we trade the #1 pick, then the colts can a lot of talented players to improve this team. We are only a few players away from having a good defense and overall team.

[Ramblinwreck7]

Im saying the bills cause look how hard it is to find a franchise QB. When Kelly retired then they went down the tube. I dont want to have the colts be in the bottom of the barrel for years. And when a prospect that is being compared to Elway and Manning. Take them.

Yeah the Bills might not have had a good quarterback for a long time, but they haven't had a good defense, offense, or overall team for a while either. Their offense is starting to turn around, but their defense is still not very good.

[braveheartcolt]

If we trade the #1 pick, then the colts can a lot of talented players to improve this team. We are only a few players away from having a good defense and overall team.

The Hughes type of good?

[mvbighead]

How do you know the kings ransom of 2012 picks will work out? see, we can do this all day.

lets say we do trade the pick and get manning back. its pretty much SB or bust, am i right? how will the fanbase feel if we go one and done, let alone if we miss the PO's all together? and what if peyton decides to cut the 4 years short and retire after next year? no Andrew, a bunch of kids still learning, and Orlovsky throwing them the ball?

yikes........

There are other QBs in the draft not named luck, amirite?

Hypothetically, the Colts could trade down to the 4 spot with Browns, and get their two 1st round selections, plus a 3rd and maybe even more than that.

With the 4th overall selection, they could take a Blackmon, Claiborne, or whoever is left that fills a gaping hole on this roster.

With the 22nd selection, they could take a Poe, Tannehill, or other hot commodity.

So the question is, would the prospect of having Luck be better than the prospect of getting both Blackmon and Tannehill?

Personally, I could see the team go either way. I know they've been saying Luck this whole time, but IF Manning has any notion of playing this year, and Irsay and Manning come to an agreement about keeping him on the roster this year, taking Luck would be a bad choice, IMO, unless the contract is re-worked to make Manning a release/trade candidate in 2013. As of now, all I've read is that if the option is picked up, the Colts will not be able to move away from Manning, thus crippling the roster moves that could be made at that point. It all depends on what actually goes down with Manning.

But in either case, there is still potential for the Colts to move down, and create the balanced team that Grigson referred to. We do not create balance by having two top shelf QBs and nothing to go with them.

I would like to see Luck become a Colt, but only if the team moves on from Manning. If that is not the case...

Trade the pick, as no pick has been hotter in the last decade, and take the kings ransom you get for it. Draft your QB in the late first or early 2nd. Pickup whichever player falls to the 4 spot with the highest grade, because we'll need him, whoever he is. Hope that you can get a guy like Poe to clog the middle in the late first, and find a QB that needs a year or two to develop behind Manning. (All of this assumes that Manning comes back with a clean bill of health.)

At this point, my money is on the team releasing Manning and drafting Luck. But I could see them go a different route to try and actually create a balanced roster.

Edited February 29, 2012 by Coltssouth
inappropriate

[Malakai432]

There are other QBs in the draft not named luck, amirite?

Hypothetically, the Colts could trade down to the 4 spot with Browns, and get their two 1st round selections, plus a 3rd and maybe even more than that.

With the 4th overall selection, they could take a Blackmon, Claiborne, or whoever is left that fills a gaping hole on this roster.

With the 22nd selection, they could take a Poe, Tannehill, or other hot commodity.

So the question is, would the prospect of having Luck be better than the prospect of getting both Blackmon and Tannehill?

Personally, I could see the team go either way. I know they've been saying Luck this whole time, but IF Manning has any notion of playing this year, and Irsay and Manning come to an agreement about keeping him on the roster this year, taking Luck would be a bad choice, IMO, unless the contract is re-worked to make Manning a release/trade candidate in 2013. As of now, all I've read is that if the option is picked up, the Colts will not be able to move away from Manning, thus crippling the roster moves that could be made at that point. It all depends on what actually goes down with Manning.

But in either case, there is still potential for the Colts to move down, and create the balanced team that Grigson referred to. We do not create balance by having two top shelf QBs and nothing to go with them.

I would like to see Luck become a Colt, but only if the team moves on from Manning. If that is not the case...

Trade the pick, as no pick has been hotter in the last decade, and take the kings ransom you get for it. Draft your QB in the late first or early 2nd. Pickup whichever player falls to the 4 spot with the highest grade, because we'll need him, whoever he is. Hope that you can get a guy like Poe to clog the middle in the late first, and find a QB that needs a year or two to develop behind Manning. (All of this assumes that Manning comes back with a clean bill of health.)

At this point, my money is on the team releasing Manning and drafting Luck. But I could see them go a different route to try and actually create a balanced roster.

Some good points, but at the same time trading Luck doesn't guarantee you a balanced roster. I think to many people have that misconception. Those 3-4 or even 5 picks could also be bust, get injured or just not pan out for the team. It could lead to a better roster but isn't guaranteed by any means just like how Luck isn't guaranteed to be the next best thing. Not saying you believe, but many people seem to think we would win multiple super bowls in a short amount of time if we had a healthy Manning and traded Luck for a wealth of picks. At the same time I can see where they are coming from but it simply most likely wouldnt happen.

One could still attempt to create a balanced roster via UDFA/FA and of course next years draft.

[mvbighead]

Some good points, but at the same time trading Luck doesn't guarantee you a balanced roster. I think to many people have that misconception. Those 3-4 or even 5 picks could also be bust, get injured or just not pan out for the team. It could lead to a better roster but isn't guaranteed by any means just like how Luck isn't guaranteed to be the next best thing. Not saying you believe, but many people seem to think we would win multiple super bowls in a short amount of time if we had a healthy Manning and traded Luck for a wealth of picks. At the same time I can see where they are coming from but it simply most likely wouldnt happen.

One could still attempt to create a balanced roster via UDFA/FA and of course next years draft.

Thing is, with Luck, your probability is all based on one person. Call it 50/50, call it whatever you like.

If you trade the pick, you have a 50/50 shot on 3 or 4 players as individuals.

So if they were to trade the pick and nab Blackmon, Tannehill, Poe, and another guy.

The odds of Blackmon panning out like an AJ Green are 50/50.

The odds of Tannehill panning out like an Andy Dalton are 50/50.

The odds of Poe panning out like a Haloti Ngata are 50/50.

Obviously, the idea is that earlier in the draft, your odds of finding a star player should be better than 50/50 as they are selected over those below them. Poe's real odds of being the next Haloti Ngata are probably less than 50/50, but if he could turn out to be a stout pro-bowl NT...

In any case, lets say Blackmon works out to be like a Michael Crabtree. Nothing special thus far, but a talented enough player.

Tannehill works out to be better than Dalton.

Poe ends up flopping as a workout warrior.

We'd have 2 guys that can contribute for some time, and one guy that ends up being cut later on. Vs. 1 guy who could take a knee shot ala Pollard vs. Brady and set your franchise back a year or worse.

If Luck is the next big thing that everyone claims, you have to take him... no question. But you shouldn't carry him as a backup to PM, and you should use whatever money you gain from cutting PM to bring in help for Luck.

But to me, if they keep PM because he IS healthy and IS willing to renegotiate his deal, you should trade the Luck pick and add a competitive backup to Manning, and talent to surround them, or talent to bring the ball back to them more often (IE - defense). If Manning goes down, your late 1st/early 2nd round QB gets thrown to the fire. If he doesn't, that pick gets to learn and develop behind one of the greatest who will no doubt be working harder than he has ever worked before to get back to the game. Meanwhile Manning will be working with a Blackmon or perhaps our defense will get solidified with the presence of a dominant corner back, which will put this team in contention to get back to the playoffs.

The funny thing to me in all of this, is that people pretend like the Colt's flaws suddenly happened this year. That we cannot get back to the playoffs without significant upgrades on the roster. The reality is, this team has been winning all these years because one man has carried an offense with the help of a decent supporting cast (the only true star being Reggie Wayne).

IF Manning is healthy, we could be right back in the fight. If he is back, we could use a lot more than just Luck to improve and balance the roster.

Again, my money is on Luck being drafted #1 overall by the Colts, and Manning being released. But I would love to see Manning return healthy, the Colts trading down, and filling out a roster that has marginal talent at most positions.

[Phil J]

If we trade the #1 pick, then the colts can a lot of talented players to improve this team. We are only a few players away from having a good defense and overall team.

we are more than a few players away. talent on D is limited to Freeney, Mathis, Bethea, Nevis, and Angerer. everyone else is JV. that's ALOT of holes to fill. and those holes will have to wait till the 2nd round and on.

and whose to say that all those players we took instead of Luck would work out? what if we have a TERRIBLE 2012 draft? you completely glossed over the part where i said that if we trade the pick we absolutely 100% must win the Superbowl or the fanbase will completely revolt. if we have a terrible season, and Manning retires or gets worse in his last couple years, and we watch Luck have a Canton-bound career somewhere else, EVERYONE will be losing their s******.

better to start over without Wayne, Saturday, Clark, and yes, Peyton Manning. the O is gonna be completely gutted. we have a few bad seasons, and begin the climb again to the top of the AFC.

"but I don't want a couple of bad seasons!!!! i want a SB nowwwwwww!!!!!!! waaaaaaahhhhhhhhhhh!!!!" LOL

[Phil J]

So the question is, would the prospect of having Luck be better than the prospect of getting both Blackmon and Tannehill?

yes

[smittywerb]

this isn't a magic turnaround. this is not a 1 offeseason rebuild. how can you realistically believe we will contend for the SB, let alone make the PO's? talented youth? making an impact and being successful IMMEDIATELY?

I have been saying this for a while. For some reason, no one wants to believe or see this. It is much harder to make a turnaround than ever before. Yeah, if Peyton comes back then it will be a big boost, but factor in teams have gotten a lot better, including our division rivals the Texans. And do not forget, the last time we went to the playoffs, that season was not all magical and good as people make it out to be, and do not use injuries as an excuse because we can not use the same excuse EVERY YEAR! It will be a lot harder than most people think.

why not, the Bengals made to the playoffs this year right?

To be honest, the Bengals have been drafting high and building their team for years. They have a lot of young talent. Let alone, their rookie WR was an all-star this year.

New rules made for 3 over Marino's record. Gonna respectfully disagree...he had Reggie, Garcon, a health Collie, Tamme....and Dallas...even though he played with slippery...and still injured hands. The line would not have been as banged up as well....A HOF QB make a huge difference at the line. Look at Brady's numbers. He was throwing no bombs to receivers and still 5,235....Collie...Reggie, and Garcon all get downfield. Just my thoughts as usual...

Difference b/w our receivers and the Pats receivers is that those guys get A LOT of YAC. They might catch the ball in the same spot we do, but any one of them can turn a 5 yard pass into 10-15yds at any given moment. And the only downfield threat we have is Garcon and he is inconsistent. I would say Reggie but he gets doubled for the most part so that takes away his downfield presence for the most part.

[gspdx]

I'm more than willing to wager Peyton is going to be released by the team and then signed right back three days later (when the league year begins with free agency) with an incentive laden, reduced cap contract, probably for 3 or 4 years. At this point, he cares nothing for his salary, largely because he's a triple-digit millionaire. All he'll want is for Pagano to be able to field a good team.

Could you also provide a source for Peyton not caring about his salary? It would be nice if this is true, but I haven't seen anything anywhere that Peyton just wants Pagano to be able to field a good team and cares nothing about his salary. It sounds like this is what you think he should think.

[LUVTHESHOE]

well if you don't believe that Manning can win more superbowls if he plays again, then you must believe that Luck is a better option for our future. I figured that meant you knew something I didn't about luck or could offer some guarantees about how he is the better option over manning for 4 more years.

Lol, I needed a break from the Manning chatter for awhile. So I decided to check back in, and low a behold the we don't need a QB thread is still rolling on. no offense meant to the OP, but did you watch a game last year? Unless you can assure us all that PM PLAYS EVERY snap for the next 4 years! QB is a major need.

[mvbighead]

we are more than a few players away. talent on D is limited to Freeney, Mathis, Bethea, Nevis, and Angerer. everyone else is JV. that's ALOT of holes to fill. and those holes will have to wait till the 2nd round and on.

and whose to say that all those players we took instead of Luck would work out? what if we have a TERRIBLE 2012 draft? you completely glossed over the part where i said that if we trade the pick we absolutely 100% must win the Superbowl or the fanbase will completely revolt. if we have a terrible season, and Manning retires or gets worse in his last couple years, and we watch Luck have a Canton-bound career somewhere else, EVERYONE will be losing their s******.

better to start over without Wayne, Saturday, Clark, and yes, Peyton Manning. the O is gonna be completely gutted. we have a few bad seasons, and begin the climb again to the top of the AFC.

"but I don't want a couple of bad seasons!!!! i want a SB nowwwwwww!!!!!!! waaaaaaahhhhhhhhhhh!!!!" LOL

And yet you completely gloss over the fact that Luck could be the next Leinart.

We must win the SuperBowl? That's an excellent job of putting words in peoples mouths. We must be successful, and win a majority of our games.

The risk, at this point, is that if we pass on Luck and he does prove to be the next Manning/Elway, that will forever be seen as a botched job by the Colts. The problem is, Reggie Bush was every bit the sure thing that Luck is. It was shock and awe when the Texans passed on him and selected Mario. In the end, they winded up being right.

To me, this situation is not unlike any other draft scenario. Luck could be the next big thing. He could not, don't gloss over that idea. There are a number of ways this could go.

[mvbighead]

Lol, I needed a break from the Manning chatter for awhile. So I decided to check back in, and low a behold the we don't need a QB thread is still rolling on. no offense meant to the OP, but did you watch a game last year? Unless you can assure us all that PM PLAYS EVERY snap for the next 4 years! QB is a major need.

It's funny how other teams fill major needs outside of the number 1 overall pick slot. People seem to have this notion that we can't possibly address the QB position if we pass on Luck. Problem, as I see it, is that there are 3-5 viable options there, and several who can be had later in the 1st or early in the 2nd/3rd.

As always, I am not advising that we pass on Luck. Just simply that the FO could see a different alternative as better, and it wouldn't bother me in the slightest.

[LUVTHESHOE]

It's funny how other teams fill major needs outside of the number 1 overall pick slot. People seem to have this notion that we can't possibly address the QB position if we pass on Luck. Problem, as I see it, is that there are 3-5 viable options there, and several who can be had later in the 1st or early in the 2nd/3rd.

As always, I am not advising that we pass on Luck. Just simply that the FO could see a different alternative as better, and it wouldn't bother me in the slightest.

There IS NOT a team in the nfl in the Colts situation that would pass on Luck, So why think the Colts should? Jim Irsay had a 3rd or 4th or 5th round option back when he took Manning in this exact situation,man I am glad he did'nt listen to all the

forum GM'S BACK THEN EITHER.

[mvbighead]

There IS NOT a team in the nfl in the Colts situation that would pass on Luck, So why think the Colts should? Jim Irsay had a 3rd or 4th or 5th round option back when he took Manning in this exact situation,man I am glad he did'nt listen to all the

forum GM'S BACK THEN EITHER.

I'm fairly sure there are a number of teams that would based on the outcome of Manning's health. Look at the Patriots. Brady tore his ACL in one season, and they didn't move up their first round selection to pick up Freeman as his heir apparent. Instead, they trade down and pick up numerous second round picks to round out a fairly solid roster. They also just last season brought in a third rounder to be the "heir apparent" while Brady finishes out his career.

It is not exactly the same scenario, but we're talking about a HOF QB who went down with a major injury, and the team wasn't immediately jumping ship to replace him.

In any case, you look at a team as successful as the pats, and you can see they are doing something right. I see no reason that if Manning is found to be healthy that the team has no choice in the selection of Luck. We can just as easily do what Greenbay did and draft a guy late in the first with great potential to be the heir apparent as Manning's legacy winds down.

There you go, two teams that, while they didn't have the top overall selection, made solid choices, rounded out rosters, and won superbowls despite not having selected their guy #1 overall. It has been done time and again in the NFL.

[Flash7]

I'm fairly sure there are a number of teams that would based on the outcome of Manning's health. Look at the Patriots. Brady tore his ACL in one season, and they didn't move up their first round selection to pick up Freeman as his heir apparent. Instead, they trade down and pick up numerous second round picks to round out a fairly solid roster. They also just last season brought in a third rounder to be the "heir apparent" while Brady finishes out his career.

It is not exactly the same scenario, but we're talking about a HOF QB who went down with a major injury, and the team wasn't immediately jumping ship to replace him.

In any case, you look at a team as successful as the pats, and you can see they are doing something right. I see no reason that if Manning is found to be healthy that the team has no choice in the selection of Luck. We can just as easily do what Greenbay did and draft a guy late in the first with great potential to be the heir apparent as Manning's legacy winds down.

There you go, two teams that, while they didn't have the top overall selection, made solid choices, rounded out rosters, and won superbowls despite not having selected their guy #1 overall. It has been done time and again in the NFL.

This is going to be an easy arguement. Everyone is goong to point out to you the difference between a knee injury and the seriousness of a neck injury (3-4 surgeries), his age, and the posibility that his nerves may not fully recover and therefore not allowing him to be able to make NFL throws.

[LUVTHESHOE]

I'm fairly sure there are a number of teams that would based on the outcome of Manning's health. Look at the Patriots. Brady tore his ACL in one season, and they didn't move up their first round selection to pick up Freeman as his heir apparent. Instead, they trade down and pick up numerous second round picks to round out a fairly solid roster. They also just last season brought in a third rounder to be the "heir apparent" while Brady finishes out his career.

It is not exactly the same scenario, but we're talking about a HOF QB who went down with a major injury, and the team wasn't immediately jumping ship to replace him.

In any case, you look at a team as successful as the pats, and you can see they are doing something right. I see no reason that if Manning is found to be healthy that the team has no choice in the selection of Luck. We can just as easily do what Greenbay did and draft a guy late in the first with great potential to be the heir apparent as Manning's legacy winds down.

There you go, two teams that, while they didn't have the top overall selection, made solid choices, rounded out rosters, and won superbowls despite not having selected their guy #1 overall. It has been done time and again in the NFL.

Okay, I refuse to get sucked back into this vortex.